Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-3-1)

The Seahawks failed to even win last week as significant favorites in St. Louis and now they’re significant favorites again here in Carolina. I like their chances of bouncing back and getting back in the win column here though. For one, this is the Seahawks’ 2nd of two road games, which tends to be an easier time for teams than a team’s first game on the road. Teams are 177-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 252-363 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game. Going off of that, road favorites are 33-22 ATS off of a road loss since 2008 as long as it’s the 2nd of two road favorites, including 15-7 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as road favorites.

The Seahawks also generally do well off of a loss, going 7-3 ATS in the Russell Wilson era. Sure, they were coming off of a loss last week and didn’t get it done, but they could easily have a different result here. The Seahawks are also in a great spot as teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002. The Seahawks have an incredibly easy game next week at home for the Seahawks. Sure, they were in a good spot last week before being significant road favorites and didn’t get the job done, but history still suggests they’re due to turn it around here.

However, while I like the Seahawks’ chances of bouncing back and getting the win here, I’m not confident they’ll cover this 5 point spread, even with all of the aforementioned trends in play. This line might just be too high for a Seattle team that has been fairly average this season. They rank just 14^th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 75.14% rate, as opposed to 74.59% for their opponents, a differential of 0.55%. Sure, they’re the Seahawks and could easily get it together and end up much higher by the end of the season, but there are no guarantees. Super Bowl winners have disappointed over the past decade and the Seahawks are dealing with significant injuries to guys like Max Unger, Bobby Wagner, and Byron Maxwell.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 74.78% rate, as opposed to 77.39% for their opponents, a differential of -2.61% that ranks 22^nd in the NFL. That’s not great, but purely looking at rate of moving the chains suggests we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers. I’m certainly not confident because the trends suggest the Seahawks are the right side and the Seahawks could at any bounce back and become what they were last season. This is still a scary football team. The Panthers are my pick though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +5

Confidence: None

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