St. Louis Rams (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)

The Chiefs have proven to be the real deal this year. A year after relying on weak competition, an unsustainable turnover margin, and no injuries to go 11-5, the Chiefs have now knocked off New England and San Diego and come within a touchdown of both Denver and San Francisco on the road, 4 teams that could easily be playoff teams when everything is said and done, despite suffering several significant injuries and having a -2 turnover margin on the season. They also blew out the Dolphins in Miami by a score of 34-15 and their victory over the Patriots was by a whopping 27 points.

Despite their 3-3 record, the Chiefs rank 5^th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 71.59% for their opponents, a differential of 5.83%. On top of that, their point differential is +21. All of this is despite the fact that they’ve played a fairly tough schedule thus far this season. The Rams, on the other hand, do not represent a tough opponent. They are moving the chains at a 74.87% rate, as opposed to 76.70% for their opponents, a differential of 1.84% that ranks 21^st in the NFL. This line is too small at just a touchdown.

The Chiefs are also in the much better spot. While the Rams have another tough game in San Francisco next week, the Chiefs get to remain at home and take on the 1-win Jets. Non-divisional road underdogs are 51-78 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 52-81 ATS since 2010 before being divisional underdogs of a touchdown or more, which the Rams almost definitely will be in San Francisco next week (the early line is 7.5). That could easily serve as a huge distraction.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have no distraction next week and they will almost definitely be touchdown favorites over the lowly Jets. Teams are 31-54 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown underdogs when their opponent will next be touchdown favorites, as teams in that situation are at such a disadvantage schedule wise. Going off of that, teams are 77-62 ATS as touchdown favorites before being touchdown favorites since 2008, while touchdown underdogs are 70-91 ATS before being touchdown underdogs over that same time period. Making matters even worse for the Rams, they’re coming off an emotional win over divisional Seattle. Teams are 37-53 ATS since 1989 off of a win by 3 or fewer as divisional underdogs of 6 or more. Teams also don’t have a strong track record of covering after beating the defending Super Bowl champion. The Chiefs should win easily here and are my survivor pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 St. Louis Rams 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Medium

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