Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1)

Last week I picked against the Cowboys when they planned the Giants here at home in Dallas. That didn’t work out as the Cowboys won 31-21 as 6.5 point favorites, but it could have easily been a different result (against the spread). The Giants led 14-7 earlier and the game would have been a lot closer if not for two Larry Donnell fumbles after the catch, two very fluky things. Even after last week, the Cowboys still have a lot of issues historically when favored, especially heavily favored, at home.

The Cowboys are 13-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 6-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas thing. NFC East teams are just 20-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008. This is probably too big of a line for the Cowboys to cover. They have a way of disappointing when they’re supposed to win big and what better situation for them to do it in than on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football since 2006.

We also might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys have played well this season, moving the chains at a 78.21% rate, as opposed to 72.11% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10% that ranks 4^th in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.57% rate, as opposed to 71.15% for their opponents, a differential of 1.42% that ranks 12^th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 7.5 instead of 10. Sure, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 12^th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 69.78% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of -4.16% that would rank 26^th in the NFL. However, I still like their chances of keeping this within double digits.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

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