Oakland Raiders (0-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-3)
The Browns lost last week in previously 0-6 Jacksonville, doing so in embarrassing fashion, losing by the finale score of 24-6 and getting dominated in the chain game. They moved the chains at a mere 46.43% rate, as opposed to 65.71% for the Jaguars, a differential of -19.29% that was the 2nd worst by a team last week. That brought the Browns down to 19th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, as they move the chains at a 72.40% rate, as opposed to 73.56% for their opponents, a differential of -1.16%. However, we still might be getting line value with the Browns because of how bad the Raiders are. The Raiders rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 67.74% rate, as opposed to 77.84% for their opponents, a differential of -10.09%.
The Raiders are also in a terrible spot as they have to go to Seattle next week. Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. In spite of all this, the public is actually on the underdog, expecting the Browns to have trouble with a 0-6 team for the 2nd straight week. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when they’re on an underdog. Despite those three things, I can’t bring myself to be too confident in the Browns.
Cleveland Browns 23 Oakland Raiders 13
Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7