Month: October 2014

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Steelers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why is this line 3.5? The odds makers generally have a better sense of how good teams actually are than the public. I actually think this line is too low and that it’s a trap line for people who are on the Texans. The Texans aren’t as good as their record, while the Steelers aren’t as bad as they looked last week.

The Texans are moving the chains at a 69.77% rate, as opposed to 73.53% for their opponents, a differential of -3.76% that is 25th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers are right in the middle of the pack at 16th, moving the chains at a 74.36% rate, as opposed to 73.63% for their opponents, a differential of 0.73%. The Steelers are the significantly better team here and I like their chances of covering here, especially against a Houston team that could be divisional underdogs in Tennessee next week. Teams are 51-78 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)

There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a two point loss in Tennessee and they should be able to carry that into this week and give themselves a shot at their first win here. The Jaguars covered in a similar spot last week, after losing just by 8 to the Steelers a week before, with Pittsburgh requiring a late pick six to even get the margin to that.

The Jaguars have been playing a lot better since Blake Bortles took over as the starting quarterback. They covered last week and probably should have covered against both the Chargers and the Steelers. Over the past 3 games, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 71.11% rate, as opposed to 72.50%, a differential of -1.39%. That’s as opposed to the first 3 games of the season, when they were moving the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of 20.08%. That’s not all Blake Bortles. Their defense has been playing significantly better too and that might not be sustainable, but there’s no denying they’ve been playing better football over the past 3 weeks.

However, it’s still really tough to trust the Jaguars. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Browns are a solid team deserving of being favored by 6 points here, the most the franchise has been favored by on the road since they returned to the NFL in 1999. They are moving the chains at a 76.83% rate, as opposed to 75.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.68%, 11th in the NFL. I’m going with the Jaguars, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Raiders, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5)

The Cardinals are 4-1 and have one of the best records in football, but they’re a very flawed, fraudulent 4-1. The Cardinals are just +10 in point differential despite their record and they’ve needed to win the turnover battle by 8 just to do that. Winning the turnover battle consistently is very hard to do so that’s going to be tough to rely on going forward. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0.

Last week they won the turnover battle with Washington by 4 and it still took a late pick six for them to win by more than a field goal. In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Cardinals are moving them at a 70.27% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of -3.02% that ranks 24th in the NFL. None of this should be surprising considering how much the Cardinals have lost defensively since last season, losing Daryl Washington to suspension, Darnell Dockett, John Abraham, and Calais Campbell to injury, and Karlos Dansby to free agency. Meanwhile, Tyrann Mathieu has only played 86 snaps thus far this season coming off a torn ACL. He played a season high 50 snaps last week, but he clearly isn’t anywhere near 100%. Their record is hiding the fact that this team has a lot of issues.

Oakland isn’t good either, coming in at 31st in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at a 68.42% rate, as opposed to 77.36% for their opponents, a differential of -8.94%. However, this line is still too high at 3.5. The Raiders actually showed some life last week, almost knocking off San Diego here in Oakland, in their first game under new head coach Tony Sparano. That should carry over into this week as teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points.

The Raiders almost knocked off a 1-loss team last week and I like their chances of actually finishing the job here against a significantly inferior 1-loss team, or at the very least covering the spread. It’s not a big play on Oakland because I don’t really trust them and they have another tough game in Cleveland next week. Teams are 96-120 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. They should be the right side though.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against spread: Oakland +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3)

All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the NFL to win. Teams usually cover before being significant road favorites, as there are no distractions on the horizon. Non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites are 38-26 ATS since 1989. On top of that, teams are 75-50 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 47-29 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more (the Dolphins are currently projected to be 4 point favorites in Jacksonville). If you combine the two, teams are 34-22 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being road favorites of 4 or more.

On the opposite end of the coin, the Bears are going to be significant road underdogs in New England next week. Teams are 70-102 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, including 21-47 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 35-12 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Everything about this situation screams that the Dolphins are the right side.

I just wish we were getting more line value with the Dolphins. This line is only 3.5. While it’s on the right side of the field goal, I wish this line was more likely 4.5 or 5, though I do like to see that the public is on Chicago and the line isn’t climbing. In fact, it’s dropped down to 3 at some places, suggesting the sharps are on the Dolphins. Siding with the sharp bettors and fading the public bettors is usually a recipe for success.

However, on paper these teams don’t really seem even, which is what this line suggests. The Bears are an average team, ranking 17th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.02% rate, as opposed to 71.52% for their opponents, a differential of 0.50%. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 77.78% rate, as opposed to 71.68% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10% that ranks 5th in the NFL. Their offensive success doesn’t really surprise me, though they’ve done a very good job of preserving through injuries offensively that they didn’t have last season.

However, their defense has been a big surprise as I saw this as one of the least talented defensive units in the league coming into the season. Despite losing Henry Melton this off-season and once again being without Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman thanks to injuries, they’ve played well on that side of the ball, fixing a lot of their issues from a season ago. They could still struggle the rest of the way because I think their play is exceeding their talent level right now, which gives me more confidence in the Dolphins, who seem like the right side as long as the line exceeds a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 27 Chicago Bears 24 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets

stevenlourie Jets, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap played. The Seahawks gave up a first and third round pick for Harvin about 19 months ago, in addition to the money they paid him, and now they’re getting just a mid-rounder back.

However, that doesn’t mean this move was a mistake. The mistake was giving him all that for him in the first place, as I said it was back in March of 2013 when the trade happened. Trading Harvin away yesterday was actually a good move. They get out of the remaining 7.2 million dollars Harvin was owed in game checks this season. They get rid of a guy who was not only underperforming, but was reportedly a huge problem team chemistry wise. They also get some sort of compensation for a guy that was undoubtedly going to be cut after the season, owed a non-guaranteed 10.5 million in 2015.

On top of that, they free up cap space for next off-season, whereas cutting him this off-season would have freed up that space for the following off-season. That extra cap space is going to be valuable when it comes time to extend Russell Wilson this off-season. Trading for Harvin is spilled ink on an otherwise very impressive record by Seahawks GM John Schneider, but being willing to admit their mistake before it was too late is a good move on the part of Schneider and the rest of the Seahawks’ front office.

Grade: A

Trade for Jets: This trade is more head-scratching for the Jets. It’s very possible that Harvin just needed a change of scenery and he instantly becomes the 2nd best wide receiver on the Jets, at the very least. He has experience playing with poor quarterbacks in the past and still being successful as the routes he runs are usually high completion percentage short routes which he takes for yards after the catch. However, we’re still talking about a guy who has been traded twice in less than 20 months and both times off-the-field type things played some sort of role. He still has never had a 1000 yard season and he still has a very checkered injury history.

On top of that, the Jets are hardly in win now mode at 1-6. Trading a mid-rounder for Harvin, paying him 7.4 million in game checks to help your team maybe go 4-12 instead of 3-13 and then cutting him after the season doesn’t really make any sense, but neither does paying him the 10.5 non-guaranteed he’s owed in 2015. Perhaps some sort of restructured contract is in Harvin’s future this off-season, but this move still would have made way more sense for a team like New England that’s in win now mode and can afford to put all its eggs into one basket than it does for a team like the Jets whose season is lost, whose future is cloudy, and who needs all the draft picks they can get.

Grade: C

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Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Commanders, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5)

At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as opposed to 76.71% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 11.5 or 12 because rate of moving the chains suggests the Redskins are an above average team.

However, that’s just because they were so dominant in one game at home against the lowly Jaguars, in which they moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars, a differential of 39.09%, the biggest single game rate of moving the chains differential this season. If you take that out, the Redskins are moving the chains at a 70.51% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -4.49%, which would rank 25th in the NFL. They’re still better than their record. They could have easily won in Philadelphia and their double digit losses in Arizona and Houston weren’t quite as bad as the final score suggested. Both would have been field goal losses on the road against decent or better opponents if not for return touchdowns and blocked extra points. However, they are definitely not an above average team.

They don’t really have any business being favored by this many points (6) over anyone, except for maybe those lowly Jaguars. I’m not thrilled about taking Charlie Whitehurst and the Titans here (I was holding out hope all week that it would end up being Locker for the Titans, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case), but they should be the right side here. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread about a quarter of the time historically for obvious reasons.

It’s a tough trend to use as it’s such a rare case that a team that you know will most likely finish 6-10 or worse is actually favored by that many. The Redskins would have to go 6-4 or better the rest of the way to finish 7-9 or better. The Titans failed to cover as 6 point favorites over the Jaguars last year, winning by just 2, another case that is most likely relevant to that trend. Despite that, the public is still on the Redskins, possibly because they think the Redskins are significantly better than their record. I like fading the public any chance I can get, especially when it makes it sense like it does here.

Another trend is working against the Redskins as well. The Titans are in a much better spot with an easier game on deck. While the Titans host the Texans next (in game in which they will most likely be favored), the Redskins have to go to Dallas. Teams are 85-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while teams are 121-88 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. As long as this line is 6 points or higher, I’m reasonably confident in the Titans.

Washington Redskins 20 Tennessee Titans 19

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Lions, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their losses came by a combined 5 points. They’ve allowed 3 return touchdowns in 5 games despite the fact that they’ve otherwise played well. They could easily be 4-1, with one loss on the road in Dallas, who is 5-1. They also have done this despite playing 3 of 5 games on the road, where they generally don’t play nearly as well as they do at home.

However, I don’t think this is the week they turn it around. I could see them losing this one and then ripping off 9 wins in their last 10 games, when they have 6 home games in 10 weeks and no really hard road game. However, going into Detroit is going to be too tough for a Saints team that has road issues. The Saints are 3-10 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-1-1 ATS at home.

This Lions team is for real. While the Saints are 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions are 8th. They are only moving the chains at a 69.32% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 64.88% rate, best in the NFL by a decent margin. That’s a differential of 4.44% over a whole percentage point better than the Saints. This line (2.5) suggests two things. One, that these two teams are equal. Two, that the Lions have a normal homefield advantage here over a poor road team. Neither of those two things are true. I know the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson, but the Saints will likely be without Jimmy Graham. I’m not that confident, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Packers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game. I like their chances of covering here at home against a Carolina team that has to be exhausted after playing essentially 5 quarters in a tie last week. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, both of which make sense. I’m taking the Packers here.

Green Bay Packers 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Falcons, Ravens, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

The Falcons got off to a good start, which included a 56-14 home victory over division rival Tampa Bay week 3, which pushed them to 2-1. However, they’ve lost 3 straight now and haven’t really been playing that well. They are moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.65% that is 22nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, Baltimore is playing very well. They’re a big AJ Green play away from being 5-1 right now and they’ve moved the chains better than their opponent in 5 of 6 games. The only week they struggled was in Indianapolis, who is also one of the best teams in the NFL.

The Ravens are moving the chains at a 77.89% rate, as opposed to 71.67% for their opponents, a differential of 6.22% that ranks 4th in the NFL. They should be much more than 6.5 point favorites and I’m going to take them even if that means going with the public and with significant line movement, as this line was 5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. The Ravens might have struggled in Indianapolis, but they’re unlikely to struggle for just the 2nd time this season here at home, where they’ve been very good in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era.

The Ravens are 32-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 21-11 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 3-8 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Making things worse for the Falcons, they head to London next. Teams are 4-10 ATS before going to London all-time. It’s a small sample space unfortunately, but it’s worth noting, especially when mentioned in conjunction with the rest of the things working against Atlanta. The reasons this isn’t a bigger play are twofold. One, Matt Ryan is 23-12 ATS off a loss in his career. Two, the Ravens have a tough game up next against Cincinnati. Teams are 85-103 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. The Ravens are still a big play though, as long as the line stays under a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Atlanta Falcons 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 90-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 176-181 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.06 points per game, as opposed to 251-357 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.23 points per game.

In spite of their loss in Philadelphia last week, the Giants are historically very good on the road.  Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-35 ATS on the road, including 36-22 ATS as road underdogs, 16-8 ATS as divisional road underdogs, and 11-4 ATS as divisional road underdogs of 3.5 or more. The opposite is true of Dallas. The Cowboys are 12-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 5-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas/NY Giants thing. NFC East teams are just 19-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008.

Picking the Giants also gives us an opportunity to fade a significant line movement, as this line was 3.5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. I understand the things that happened last week might seem worthy of a 3 point line movement, the Victor Cruz injury, the Giants’ blowout loss, the Cowboys’ win in Seattle, but I don’t think this line should have moved this much based on one week’s results. The Cowboys could easily be overconfident as favorites off of that win last week (they’re just 3-15 ATS as favorites off a win since 2010 anyway), while the Giants will be embarrassed and want to redeem themselves. I like their chances of bouncing back.

Dallas Cowboys 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: High

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