Month: October 2014

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)

The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. Usually wins like that are usually accompanied by big overreaction line movements so it makes sense. The line hasn’t shifted much (going from 3 to 3.5), but it’s still moved off of the key number of 3 and the Packers could still be overconfident here.

We’re getting line value with the Dolphins as well. The Packers were 9 point favorites at home for the Vikings and Christian Ponder last week. This line suggests that the Packers would be 9.5 point favorites at home for the Dolphins, even though the Dolphins are better than the Vikings with Christian Ponder. Sure the Packers blew out the Vikings, but that was in Lambeau, where they’re a lot better. Since 2009, the Packers are 36-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.98 points per game. On the other hand, they are 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game. It’s not a strong lean, but as long as the line is higher than a field goal, the Dolphins should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

The Vikings got destroyed on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 42-10 in Green Bay to the Packers. However, there are arguments for why they’ll bounce back. The most obvious one is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back from injury and he’ll be a significant improvement over Christian Ponder, the injury fill-in last week in Green Bay. They also return home, rather than playing in Lambeau, one of the toughest places to win in the NFL. On top of that, teams usually cover off a blowout Thursday Night loss as they’ve had extra time to stew over the loss and to make the necessary adjustments. Underdogs are 24-14 ATS off a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more since 1989.

However, I still like the Lions here. Part of the reason why that aforementioned trend is powerful is because usually there is a big overreaction line movement associated with that type of nationally televised loss. In this case, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite did as the Lions were 4 point favorites here last week. That made a lot of sense because that would mean the Lions would be 10 point favorites at home. Considering the Vikings were 9 point underdogs in Green Bay, who lost in Detroit, that makes a lot of sense.

Now the Vikings are 1 point favorites, despite their blowout loss last week. Obviously the fact that Calvin Johnson isn’t going to play this week has something to do with that line movement, but I think that 5 points of line movement is way too much. Calvin Johnson has barely made an impact over the past two weeks with this ankle injury so they’re already essentially playing without him. They lost at home to the Bills last week, which was a huge disappointment, but they could have easily won that game if kicker Alex Henery, who is now gone, didn’t miss all 3 field goals. The previous week, they won 24-17 in New York against the Jets with Calvin Johnson making minimal impact. They could easily do a similar thing here in Minnesota. Golden Tate has done a great job in Johnson’s “absence” over the past two weeks, as the former Seahawk has caught 15 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games, showing why the Lions went out and signed him this off-season.

The Lions are also in the better spot as they will be favorites next week at home for New Orleans, while the Vikings will be underdogs on the road in Buffalo. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Lions should be the right side here.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

This is a game where I don’t want to pick either side. On one hand, the Titans might not deserve to be favored by 6 points against anyone, especially with Charlie Whitehurst likely under center again. They are 1-4. They rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.39% rate, as opposed to 76.80% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. It’s a powerful trend that can’t be used often because it refers to such rare cases and it’s tough to know how teams will finish, but it’s pretty clear that the Titans will not be going 6-5 to finish the season and finishing 7-9.

On the other hand, the Jaguars might be so bad that they’re the exception. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and not only that but their over 9 percentage points worse than Tennessee, as bad as they are. They move the chains at a 62.69% rate, as opposed to 78.41% for their opponents, meaning they are simultaneously one of the worst defenses and the worst offenses in the NFL and they have a differential of -15.72%. They have covered just 6 of their last 22 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 22 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. The Titans aren’t good, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they were able to pull out a double digit win here at home.

Going off of that, the Jaguars are projected to be 4 point home underdogs next week for the Browns. Not only is that the most the Browns have been favored by on the road since they rejoined the NFL in 1999, which again highlights how bad these Jaguars are, but teams tend to struggle before being big home underdogs. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Jaguars are the side I’m going with, but I’m not confident in that at all.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

This is one game I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Bills have been pretty successful at home in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, going 8-2 ATS there in their last 10 games, including 6-1 ATS as home underdogs during that time frame. Last season, they beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They’ve also beat Miami at home in Buffalo twice over that time period.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season, including 1-5 ATS as road favorites. The Patriots are just 5-7 straight up on the road over that time period, as opposed to 11-0 straight up at home. On top of that, the Patriots have another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Sure it’s just the Jets, but it’s still a football game and a divisional game at that. Favorites generally don’t cover before Thursday Night Games, going 32-55 ATS in that spot since 2008.

On the other hand, the Patriots could easily be double digit favorites in that game and teams generally cover before being double digit favorites, which makes sense as that game is not nearly as big of a distraction as a harder game. Teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2010, including 55-38 ATS as favorites before being double digit favorites. On top of that, divisional road favorites are 42-24 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. I’m going with the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident and if this line goes below a field goal, I might switch to the Patriots. That’s how close this is and Tom Brady is 43-18 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 in his career.

New England Patriots 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-1)

Last week I called the Cardinals a fraudulent 3-0 team. Every year it seems there’s one team that gets off to a hot start and then crashes and burns. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills started 3-0 in 2011, etc. It makes sense. About 2/3rds of the league has a 3+ game winning streak at some point in a 16 game season. It’s just much more noticeable at the start of the season, so people overreact to 3/16 or 1/4 an NFL season. The Cardinals didn’t have the talent level to match their record, after losing Carson Palmer, Daryl Washington, Darnell Dockett, John Abraham, and Karlos Dansby to injury, free agency, and suspension from last year’s 10-6 team. They also still don’t have Tyrann Mathieu back to full strength having played just 36 snaps all season.

Sure enough, the Cardinals got destroyed in Denver, losing by the final score of 41-20. Sure, the Broncos are a very good team, but 21 points is a big margin. As good as the Broncos are, it was still just their 2nd win by that margin or more in their last 10 games. The odds makers were pretty down on them and they still only expected them to lose by 7 or 8 points, setting the line at 7.5. It was also even more of a blowout than the final score suggested as the Cardinals lost by 21 despite winning the turnover battle by 2. If it wasn’t for those 2 plays, the final margin could have been upwards of 4 touchdowns.

The Cardinals moved the chains at a mere 45.83% rate, while the Broncos moved them at a 76.32% rate, a 30.48% differential that was not only the biggest differential of the week, but the 3rd biggest differential of the season (Washington/Jacksonville, Atlanta/Tampa Bay). On the season, they are moving the chains at a 70.94% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -3.86% that is 25th in the NFL. For comparison’s sake, Washington moves the chains at a 74.70% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of 2.15% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

Now their injury situation is getting even worse. Carson Palmer is not expected back this week and now backup Drew Stanton is also expected to miss this game, leaving 3rd stringer Logan Thomas, a 4th round rookie, to get the start. Aside from an 81 yard touchdown to a wide open Andre Ellington out of the backfield, Thomas didn’t look good at all last week, completing just 1 out of 8 passes. On top of that, Calais Campbell, arguably their best defensive player, is out for an extended period of time. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal here.

Washington Redskins 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

The Bengals got destroyed last week by the Patriots, who got destroyed the previous week by the Chiefs, and now they’re without AJ Green, after already being without Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. How will they be able to bounce back? Well, for one thing, they’re getting Vontaze Burfict and possibly Kevin Zeitler back from injury. Those guys don’t put up the flashy fantasy stats that AJ Green does, but those are valuable members of their team returning to or possibly returning to action. Two, and more importantly, they return home, where they have been incredible over the past two seasons.

The Bengals have not only won 11 straight regular season home games, but they’ve also covered all 11 and won by an average of 17.00 points per game. The Bengals have already destroyed both the Titans and Falcons in Cincinnati this year, by scores of 26 and 14 respectively. Carolina is better than Tennessee, but they’re comparable to Atlanta. The team that went 12-4 last season is gone as a result of all their off-season losses and the suspension of Greg Hardy and now what’s left is an average team that could easily become Cincinnati’s next blowout victim at home.

The AJ Green injury is one reason this isn’t a bigger play. The other reason is that the Bengals have a tougher game on deck as they head to Indianapolis next week for a game that almost definitely will have some sort of playoff seeding implications. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Bengals are still the play here as mere 6.5 point favorites.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Falcons, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Two spots the Falcons have always done well in since 2008, the first year of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, have been off of a loss and at home. Matt Ryan is 30-19 ATS at home in his career and 23-11 ATS off of a loss. The Falcons didn’t show well off of a loss last week in New York against the Giants, but they were on the road. The Falcons haven’t won outside since 2012. Now at home in their dome, they could have an easier time. They are 15-7 ATS at home off a loss since 2008 as long as Matt Ryan is under center.

Despite all that, I’m taking the Bears here because they have even more powerful situational trends on their side. The Bears are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 105-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 89-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game.

The Bears are also in a much better spot with a much easier game on deck. While the Bears host the Dolphins next, the Falcons have to go to Baltimore. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Falcons’ defense and offensive line are a mess so as good as their passing game is and as good as they are at home and off a loss, I like the Bears to come in and potentially pull the upset. I’m taking them and the field goal.

Chicago Bears 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Seahawks are basically an auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.73 points per game. This is opposed to a 23-40 record away from home (28-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 3.90 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 19-1 straight up and 15-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.55 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 8.72 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games. The odds makers clearly boosted the spread for the Seahawks’ special homefield advantage when the Seahawks played Green Bay and Denver, against whom they were 7.5 point and 5 point favorites respectively. They still covered both spreads.

Given that, it seems a little ridiculous that they are only 8 point favorites here for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have exceeded expectations this season, but they’re not as good as their record. They’ve had close calls with Houston and St. Louis and haven’t really beaten anyone who is having much success this season. The Seahawks in Seattle will be a different story. If the Broncos couldn’t cover the spread in Seattle and the Packers got blown out in Seattle, the Cowboys should lose this one by double digits.

The Seahawks are also in a good spot with just a road game against the Rams on deck. Teams are 54-28 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. On top of that, teams are 75-49 ATS since 2002 before being 3+ road favorites. The Cowboys are technically in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 120-88 ATS in since 2002, but their game against the Giants next week is much more important to them than the Seahawks’ game against the Rams so the Seahawks are in the better spot. I’m going to take them in that better spot in a location where they almost always cover. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: High

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally struggle as home underdogs off an overtime loss as road underdogs, going 13-20 ATS in that dynamic since 1989. However, teams especially struggle on Thursday night off an overtime game, going 3-18 ATS in that situation since 1989. There aren’t enough data points to combine those two trends, but you can imagine they don’t add well together. This is a rough spot for the Texans.

We’re also getting line value with the Colts because the public hasn’t really caught on to the fact that they’re one of the elite teams in the NFL. They’re moving the chains at a 78.95% rate, as opposed to 70.32% for their opponents. Andrew Luck has broken out as the type of top level quarterback the Colts envisioned him being when they drafted him #1 overall in 2012. He’s completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.49 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, leading their dynamic offense. Only giving a field goal here with them, with the Texans in the situation they’re in, is a great deal.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)

The Eagles are 4-1, but they are a fraudulent 4-1. Of their 4 wins, 3 of them have come by 6 or less and 2 of them have come by 3 or less. The other one was a home game against the Jaguars. They also have 6 return touchdowns, as opposed to just 11 offensive touchdowns. If you take those return touchdowns out of the equation, they would have a -18 point differential, which would be 5th worst in the NFC. They rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains differential at -3.29%. They are moving the chains at just a 69.94% rate, as opposed to 73.22% for their opponents.

The biggest problem with their offense is that they are averaging 3.79 yards per carry on the ground, including just 2.90 yards per carry from LeSean McCoy. The issue is the offensive line as both Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce, Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard and center respectively in 2013, are out for an extended period of time. Those are arguably the two best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. Also, Nick Foles’ mechanics and accuracy have been a best, as the 2nd year starter has regressed and ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked quarterback out of 35 eligible. Neither of those two problems is going to correct itself any time soon.

The Giants, meanwhile, are a much better team. They rank 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.70% rate, as opposed to a 72.67% rate for their opponents, a differential of 4.04%. Even though Philadelphia has the better record and they are less than field goal favorites here at home (2.5), we’re still getting significant line value with the Giants. That line also isn’t taking into account that the Giants very dangerous on the road. Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-34 ATS on the road, including 36-21 ATS as road underdogs, and 16-7 ATS as divisional road underdogs.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 34-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. They’re also 27-43 ATS at home since 2006, including 8-18 ATS in divisional games at home. I love the Giants to pull the upset and they are my Pick of the Week as 2.5 point underdogs.

New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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