Month: October 2014

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

I’m completely torn on this one as there’s good reasons to take each side. On one hand, the 49ers usually cover as favorites of 3 or more as they’ve always beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-14 ATS in that situation since Harbaugh took over in 2011. However, I’m not sure the Chiefs are a bad team at all, while the 49ers haven’t looked right this season because of all the players they are missing to injuries and suspension. We might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Chiefs as 6 point underdogs.

The Chiefs looked fantastic last week in a 41-14 home win over the New England Patriots. They could easily carry that momentum into this week considering how well teams do off of blowout wins on Monday Night Football. Teams are 32-14 ATS since 2002 off of a 21+ point win on Monday Night Football. I’m taking the 49ers out of principle because the Chiefs are a publicly backed underdog, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

Jacksonville was in a perfect spot to finally cover the spread last week. They were 13.5 point underdogs, so they had a lot of room to play with, as a result of the fact that they lost by 21+ points in two straight weeks. Teams are 40-22 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more, as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. And they still didn’t cover the spread, losing 33-14. They have covered just 6 of their last 21 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 21 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. They should get blown out again here as 7 point home underdogs against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Cowboys have greatly exceeded my expectations. By far the biggest surprise has been the play of their defense. They haven’t been good or anything, but considering the complete lack of talent they came into the season with, a lot of credit needs to be given to new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli for turning this into an at least serviceable unit that allows the offense to do their thing. Rolando McClain has been the biggest surprise as the embattled former 1st round pick seems to have put his career back on the right track and is playing the best football of his career, but players like Sterling Moore and Tyrone Crawford have also exceeded expectations and free agent pickup Henry Melton has been key. I don’t expect the Cowboys to be as good as they’ve looked through 4 games all season, but they’re going to contend for a playoff spot.

However, they’re in a terrible spot here as they have a huge game in Seattle on deck. Teams are 70-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 54-88 ATS as favorites before being underdogs of a touchdown or more, which the Cowboys could easily be considering Green Bay and Denver were 7.5 and 5 point underdogs in Seattle this season. Dallas also tends to fall flat as big home favorites. This is the first time they’ve been in this situation this season and they might be playing with less of a chip on their shoulder as a result. They are 12-20 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more since 2009. Finally, I think we’re getting significant line value with the Texans. This line should be 4 or 4.5 at most. The Cowboys aren’t 3 points better than a decent Texans team. This line was 3 a week ago. I’m going to fade the overreaction and the line movement and take the points here.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Medium

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