Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)

Tony Romo is not expected to play in this game, but I like their chances of covering this spread even without him so I’m going to lock this pick in now while the line is still where it is. If Romo ends up playing, it’ll be an added bonus. The public is all over the Cardinals as 3 point underdogs here, which makes sense as the Cardinals have one loss and the Cowboys will be rolling with Brandon Weeden under center. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog, as the public always loses money in the long run and whenever they think a different team should be favored than the odds makers it generally doesn’t end well. As long as it makes sense, I almost always go against a public underdog.

It does make sense here. I like betting on good teams in their first game missing their starting quarterback, as they tend to give 110% to make up for the loss of their quarterback, while the other team relaxing a little. The Cowboys, despite what happened last week, are a good team, moving the chains at a 77.65% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 5.51%. Their offense won’t be as good without Romo obviously, but they have a strong enough of an offensive supporting cast to make up for it and their defense has been surprisingly passable this season thanks to the coaching of new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli.

The Cardinals, conversely, are not nearly as good as their record. They move the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -0.84% that ranks 19^th in the NFL. They’ve been way too reliant on a +9 turnover margin this season, powered by a 61.54% rate of recovering fumbles (5^th in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +2 return touchdown margin.

They’re probably the most overrated team in football, especially after beating overrated Philadelphia last week, a game in which they couldn’t move the ball much at all with the exception of two big plays. The Cowboys are also in a good spot as they only have a game against Jacksonville on deck. They are expected to be 10.5 point favorites in London next Sunday against Jacksonville and teams are 69-55 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. I’m not confident, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: None

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