Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)

This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense that it would move like that considering, Philadelphia lost last week in Arizona and Houston blew out the Titans. In spite of that, the public is all over from the Eagles, assuming that a team as good as the Eagles should have no problem beating Houston by a field goal, not realizing that Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record and that this line would be about 7.5 in Philadelphia. For comparison, Philadelphia was 6.5 against the Rams and didn’t even cover, despite getting a return touchdown.

The Eagles have been overly reliant on return touchdowns this season, scoring 6 times on defense and special teams, as opposed to 0 for their opponents. They can’t continually rely on that as a way to score. Their offense hasn’t played well, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate. Their defense has been solid, allowing opponents, to move the chains at a 70.04% rate, a differential of 0.79% that ranks 15^th in the NFL. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 20^th, moving the chains at a 70.71% rate, as opposed to 72.09% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. The Eagles shouldn’t be favored here, even with Jason Kelce returning from injury. I’m not confident or anything, but the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Philadelphia Eagles 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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