Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)

This is a tough one. The Vikings are going into a bye and teams are 37-61 ATS since 2002 at home going into a bye as favorites of 1-5.5 points. This line is right at even so this game might not qualify, but it’s a point away from qualifying and teams are 2-3 ATS at home going into a bye when the line is even. The Redskins also have the significantly easier next game, as they host the Buccaneers, while the Vikings have to go to Chicago. Teams are 58-97 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. This line is even and both teams have byes before those next games so it’s tough to know if this game qualifies, but the logic does still make sense and it’s a point away from qualifying.

The Redskins also are significantly better in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.55% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 1.12% that ranks 13^th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, rank 28^th, moving the chains at a 66.95% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of -3.88%. That suggests that the Redskins should be favored, even before you take into account that Robert Griffin is returning from injury. However, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 13^th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars, one of the worst teams in the league. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 70.14% rate, as opposed to 73.85% for their opponents, a differential of -3.71% that would rank 26^th in the NFL. Griffin could also be rusty in his first game back. I like the Redskins, but I’m not confident.

Washington Redskins 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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