Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as their record or as good as they’ve been in recent years, as a result of injuries to guys like AJ Green, Kevin Zeitler, Marvin Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Leon Hall, and Giovani Bernard and off-season losses of guys like Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, and coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer.

Green is back now, but they are still missing a lot of very important guys. They are 22^nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.18% rate, as opposed to 74.91% for their opponents, a differential of -2.73%. The Browns aren’t as good as their record either, but they still rank higher than the Bengals. They rank 19^th, moving the chains at a 70.52% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.91%.

However, the Bengals have been a lot better at home this season, moving the chains at a 78.49% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.20%. This is nothing new for them as they have been dominant at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-1-1 at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game, going 11-3 against the spread. That being said, they’ve been overrated all season because of their record so that has nullified most of that homefield advantage. Last week, I was hesitant to pick them at home as 11.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, a game in which they won by 10. They’re still a way better home team than road team, but they aren’t an auto-bet at home anymore.

Given that, I like the Browns this week as they are in a good spot. While the Bengals have to go to New Orleans next week, the Browns host the mediocre Texans, which is going to be a much smaller distraction. Teams are 49-35 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-98 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Browns should be the right side and if this line moves to a touchdown before game time it might become a medium confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]