What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	217	27	14	23	15	3	0	81.61%
2	DEN	184	31	9	39	6	4	0	78.75%
3	GB	166	26	12	28	7	3	2	78.69%
4	KC	174	22	13	32	7	2	0	78.40%
5	IND	235	32	20	36	15	4	1	77.84%
6	PIT	208	26	15	41	9	4	0	77.23%
7	CHI	179	21	9	30	15	5	0	77.22%
8	DAL	200	24	18	31	17	2	0	76.71%
9	BAL	200	25	22	28	14	6	0	76.27%
10	NE	199	26	25	39	6	4	0	75.25%
11	SD	177	23	14	40	9	3	0	75.19%
12	SEA	159	20	18	34	6	2	1	74.58%
13	MIA	178	20	20	28	12	8	0	74.44%
14	ATL	166	22	10	35	14	6	1	74.02%
15	NYG	173	22	8	44	14	5	0	73.31%
16	CAR	185	17	19	41	12	2	0	73.19%
17	WAS	187	22	16	40	17	4	0	73.08%
18	SF	159	16	18	34	9	4	0	72.92%
19	ARZ	159	19	16	44	6	1	0	72.65%
20	PHI	184	20	16	39	21	2	0	72.34%
21	CIN	158	21	20	36	10	3	0	72.18%
22	STL	153	15	13	37	13	3	0	71.79%
23	DET	153	17	19	37	11	2	0	71.13%
24	CLE	158	19	16	45	7	6	0	70.52%
25	HOU	167	19	18	44	14	3	0	70.19%
26	TB	143	16	12	36	16	4	1	69.74%
27	NYJ	175	16	16	45	18	6	0	69.20%
28	MIN	171	15	19	50	12	4	0	68.63%
29	TEN	138	15	13	41	11	4	2	68.30%
30	JAX	162	16	15	51	19	4	0	66.67%
31	OAK	130	14	10	46	16	2	0	66.06%
32	BUF	135	17	19	47	11	3	1	65.24%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	BUF	164	15	19	43	18	3	0	68.32%
2	DET	148	13	12	45	12	4	1	68.51%
3	MIA	143	16	13	36	18	5	0	68.83%
4	PHI	163	20	14	50	11	5	0	69.58%
5	KC	150	13	17	38	5	6	0	71.18%
6	CLE	176	19	15	43	13	6	1	71.43%
7	IND	179	24	11	50	13	7	0	71.48%
8	MIN	172	22	14	48	12	3	0	71.59%
9	ARZ	163	17	13	39	16	3	0	71.71%
10	BAL	177	19	18	38	13	5	1	72.32%
11	SEA	154	17	15	37	10	2	1	72.46%
12	WAS	174	24	13	51	8	3	0	72.53%
13	DEN	175	21	14	44	9	4	1	73.13%
14	NYJ	163	28	15	52	3	0	0	73.18%
15	JAX	189	22	19	43	10	5	0	73.26%
16	DAL	163	21	11	38	14	4	0	73.31%
17	NE	199	21	18	35	18	9	0	73.33%
18	HOU	197	23	14	42	21	3	0	73.33%
19	NYG	164	22	17	35	13	2	0	73.52%
20	PIT	188	22	20	39	13	1	1	73.94%
21	SF	149	19	8	36	13	2	0	74.01%
22	CIN	190	19	20	31	13	5	1	74.91%
23	TEN	191	21	19	35	11	4	0	75.44%
24	SD	180	23	12	37	9	7	1	75.46%
25	OAK	170	21	19	33	6	4	0	75.49%
26	STL	162	20	15	32	10	2	0	75.52%
27	ATL	177	23	21	30	13	0	0	75.76%
28	CHI	166	22	21	22	12	4	0	76.11%
29	TB	190	25	22	31	12	1	0	76.51%
30	NO	167	20	15	31	9	1	1	76.64%
31	CAR	201	28	16	31	16	2	0	77.89%
32	GB	188	21	12	26	15	6	0	77.99%

 

Overall

1	KC	7.22%
2	IND	6.36%
3	DEN	5.62%
4	MIA	5.60%
5	NO	4.97%
6	BAL	3.95%
7	DAL	3.41%
8	PIT	3.28%
9	PHI	2.76%
10	DET	2.62%
11	SEA	2.13%
12	NE	1.92%
13	CHI	1.11%
14	ARZ	0.94%
15	GB	0.70%
16	WAS	0.55%
17	NYG	-0.21%
18	SD	-0.28%
19	CLE	-0.91%
20	SF	-1.09%
21	ATL	-1.74%
22	CIN	-2.73%
23	MIN	-2.95%
24	BUF	-3.08%
25	HOU	-3.14%
26	STL	-3.72%
27	NYJ	-3.98%
28	CAR	-4.70%
29	JAX	-6.60%
30	TB	-6.78%
31	TEN	-7.14%
32	OAK	-9.44%