San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)
Both of these teams are 4-4, but one of them is significantly better. While the 49ers rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Saints are all the way up at 5th. The 49ers move the chains at a 72.92% rate, as opposed to 74.01% for their opponents, a differential of -1.09%. Meanwhile, the Saints move them at an 81.61% rate (best in the NFL), as opposed to 76.64% for their opponents, a differential of 4.97%. Why are they 4-4 when they’ve played that well? Well, they have a -6 turnover margin and a -2 return touchdown margin fueled by a 35.29% rate of recovering fumbles, and 3 losses by a combined 6 points. They are legitimately a few plays away from being 7-1.
They’ve also played that well despite playing 5 of 8 on the road, where they are historically significantly worse than at home. Now they have 3 straight games at home and are poised to go on a run, starting with this game. Teams are 61-45 ATS since 1989 as home favorites before being home favorites twice more in a row. At the same time, they are 18-1-1 ATS at home over their last 20 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, winning all 20 of those games by an average of about 19.6 points per game. They are an auto-bet at home and they’re still significantly undervalued to boot. This is my Pick of the Week.
New Orleans Saints 34 San Francisco 49ers 20
Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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