Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)
The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Even last season, when he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, he was only Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked quarterback. The Eagles’ offense didn’t miss a beat last week when Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez came in. It’s really starting to look like Foles is primarily just a product of the system and the Eagles’ supporting cast.
This isn’t to say that the Eagles won’t miss Foles and that Mark Sanchez will be exactly as good, but it could easily not be a big loss. At the same time, the Eagles have gotten Jason Kelce back from injury, will be getting Evan Mathis from injury, and have finally gotten LeSean McCoy going on the ground. The Eagles have only moved the chains at a 72.34% rate this season and I don’t expect that to get any worse over the next 6-8 weeks. If their defense can continue playing well, as they currently allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.58% rate, they shouldn’t be a worse team this week than they were a few weeks ago. They’re not as good as their 6-2 record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re a lot better than the Panthers.
The Panthers rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 77.89% for their opponents, a differential of -4.10%. However, they’re in a much better spot here this week than the Eagles. While Philadelphia has to go to Green Bay next week, Carolina just hosts Atlanta. Teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Teams are also 45-78 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs. As long as this line is a touchdown or more, I like the Panthers a good deal.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Carolina Panthers 20
Pick against the spread: Carolina +7
Confidence: Medium
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