Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13^th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of 1.11%. The Packers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 78.69% rate, as opposed to 77.99% for their opponents, a differential of 0.70% that ranks 15^th in the NFL. They’ve been overly reliant on a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +8 turnover margin. However, the Packers have been significantly better at home, moving the chains at a 78.13% rate, as opposed to 69.39% for their opponents in 3 home games this season, a differential of 8.74%.

This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 23-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 29-4 straight up, with an absurd +469 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is 19-10 ATS off of a loss in his career and 11-2 ATS in his career against the Bears, while Mike McCarthy is 8-0 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career. The Bears have an easy game against the Vikings up next and divisional road underdogs are 59-41 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. I also wish this line was smaller. It’s currently at 7.5 and it would have to be below a touchdown for me to make this a higher confidence pick, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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