Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London

Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing Romo last week in a pathetic showing against the Cardinals, the Cowboys still rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.71% rate, as opposed to 73.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.41%.

On the opposite side, the Jaguars rank 29^th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 73.26% for their opponents, a differential of -6.60%. They have covered just 9 of their last 26 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 26 games, they’ve lost 17 of them by double digits. On top of that, Dallas is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-4 ATS in London games, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

There are three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, it’s tough to judge how Romo will be coming off this kind of injury and if his supporting cast will give 100% against a bad team in another country with Romo now back. Two, I don’t really have any strong trends that suggest the Cowboys are the right side. Three, the Jaguars have been playing a lot better of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently.

Over the past 6 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.72% rate, as opposed to 68.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.09%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. The Cowboys should still beat them by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]