Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off that, teams are 43-28 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 16-8 ATS off of a loss as road favorites. On top of that, the Broncos also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to St. Louis on deck. Teams are 80-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 49-32 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 20-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Denver -7.5).

On the other hand, all of the public money is on the Broncos and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, winless teams this late in the season tend to be a solid bet. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 32-15 ATS since 1989. Teams like this tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Raiders could easily be all three. I’m going with the Broncos because I think we’re getting a tiny bit of line value with them as 11 point favorites, but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -11

Confidence: None

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