New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

The Seahawks have fallen flat at home in their previous 2 home games, losing as big home favorites to the Cowboys and then beating the lowly Raiders by just 6 points last week as 14 point favorites. However, I still really like them at home. I don’t think those 2 games erase their extensive recent history of home dominance. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 44-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.47 points per game.

This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 20-2 straight up and 15-7 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.09 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 7.57 points per game.

The Seahawks’ relative struggles in their last 2 home games are giving us good value here with the Seahawks as they are just 8 point favorites over the Giants. Remember, they were 7.5 point favorites over the Packers, who are much better than the Giants, earlier this season and the Seahawks won very easily. Obviously, the Seahawks haven’t been playing as well recently as they were to start the season, but they’re getting both Max Unger and Russell Okung back from injury, while Byron Maxwell is listed as questionable to return.

Unger, their best offensive lineman, has been out since week 5. Okung missed last week. Maxwell has been out since week 6. They’re getting healthier and I expect them to be playing with a little bit more of a chip on their shoulders this week as they’re kind of getting lost in the Super Bowl contenders discussion. They’re also in a good spot as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, with a trip to Kansas City on deck. Teams are 80-52 ATS in that situation since 2008. The Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: Medium

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