Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)
This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more, and 2-12 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more off a loss. So, as weird as this sounds, I actually really like the Jets this week. As bad as they’ve been this season, everyone covers the spread every once in a while. Teams are 61-39 ATS since 1989 on an 8+ game losing streak, including 55-32 ATS as underdogs and 25-16 ATS as home underdogs. They could easily catch the Steelers off guard, as many teams do as non-divisional home underdogs against them. It doesn’t help the Steelers that their already thin defense will be without Ryan Shazier and Troy Polamalu this week.
This line has moved from 5.5 and 6 at opening to 4.5 and in some places 4. On one hand, I wish I got this line earlier because Jets +6 would have been such a great bet. On the other hand, that line movement suggests the sharps are on the Jets, as the public is all over the Steelers, which gives me more confidence in the Jets, even with the line moving down. The Steelers are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.23% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 3.28%. On the other hand, the Jets are 27th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.20% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -3.98%. That means this line should be about 4.5, even before you take the aforementioned trends into account. If you can still get this at anything higher than 4, the Jets are absolutely the right side.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Jets 23
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4.5
Confidence: Medium
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