Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Jacksonville, St. Louis). They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.20% rate, as opposed to 77.16% for their opponents, a differential of -4.96%.
Last week, they were blown out by the score of 45-21 in Philadelphia. That was in embarrassing fashion on national television on Monday Night and now they have to turn around and play another game 5 days later. They won’t have time to bounce back and teams coming off blowout losses on MNF are horrible at covering the spread the following week, as teams are 18-27 ATS off of a MNF loss of 21+ or more since 2002, including 6-14 ATS as favorites. The line moved from 3 to 2 (and 1.5 in some places) from last week, which is a significant line movement, but that was deservedly so.
The Falcons aren’t great either, moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.64% that ranks 20th in the NFL, but the Panthers have no business being favored here, even at home. The Panthers aren’t favored by a ton (2 points), but that actually puts them in a bad spot. Teams are 36-59 ATS as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 going into a bye since 2002. Between that and last week’s blowout loss on Monday Night, the Panthers are in a horrible spot to cover the spread this week, even before you take into account that we’re getting line value with the Falcons as underdogs here.
The Falcons, conversely, are in a great spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I like the Falcons a good amount here.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Carolina Panthers 20 Upset Pick +115
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2
Confidence: Medium
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