Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5)

The Saints lost at home last week after previously winning 20 straight games under Sean Payton at home. Still, I like them at home a lot. They are still 18-2-1 ATS at home over their last 21 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 18.52 points per game. I’m not going to not bet the Saints at home this week just because they lost in overtime last week. In fact, the fact that they lost last week might make it more likely that they cover this week. Drew Brees is 21-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-2 ATS at home.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have not been good on the road recently. The Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They are moving the chains at a 57.89% rate on the road, as opposed to 77.12% for their opponents, a differential of -19.22%. Meanwhile, the Saints are moving the chains at an 82.47% rate at home, as opposed to 73.28% for their opponents, a differential of 9.19%. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Bengals are coming off of an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football and teams usually bounce back in that situation, as they have extra time to be embarrassed. Underdogs are 24-16 ATS since 1989 off of a TNF loss by 14 or more. The Saints are still the right side though.

New Orleans Saints 34 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: High

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