Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Both of these two teams had blowout victories on national television last week, as the Eagles blew out the Panthers on Monday Night Football by the final score of 45-21 and the Packers blew out the Bears on Sunday Night Football by the final score of 55-14. Which team has the best chance of continuing that into this week? Well, I think both teams have a good chance of continuing to play well this week. On Philadelphia’s side, teams tend to carry the momentum from a Monday Night Football win into the following week, going 33-14 ATS off of a MNF win by 21 or more since 2002. On Green Bay’s side, the Packers are once again at home, where they’ve been dominant recently. Aaron Rodgers is 24-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 30-4 straight up, with an absurd +510 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.00 points per game.
Both teams have no upcoming distractions as the Packers head to Minnesota and the Eagles host the Titans. Teams are 56-28 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). On the flip side, teams are 109-74 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs, before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.
I’m going to take the Packers because we’re just getting so much line value with the Packers at home. The Packers move the chains at a 79.07% rate at home, as opposed to 68.70% for their opponents, a differential of 10.37%. The Eagles are in a great spot, but they rank just 9th, moving the chains at a 72.12% rate, as opposed to 69.00% for their opponents, on the season, a differential of 3.12% and the Packers are in a great spot too. As good as the final score looked against Carolina last week, the win was powered by an unsustainable turnover margin (+5) and two return touchdown. They moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 64.86% for the Panthers, a differential of 5.14%. I still think Mark Sanchez is a downgrade from Nick Foles. I’m not confident in the Packers though.
Green Bay Packers 30 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5
Confidence: Low
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