Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6)
The Redskins stand at 3-6, but they are still favored by 7.5 points here over the Buccaneers. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. I don’t see the Redskins finishing 4-3 or better over their final 7 games. The Buccaneers aren’t good, but they’ve played some decent games on the road this season, including a win in Pittsburgh and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. The Buccaneers have actually only lost three games by more than a touchdown this season, as bad as their record is.
The Redskins also have a tough game next week, going to San Francisco. Teams are 76-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, touchdown favorites are 37-74 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown underdogs, which the Redskins almost definitely will be next week. The Buccaneers will also be road underdogs in Chicago next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs.
The only reason this isn’t a high confidence pick is because the Redskins are better than most 3-6 teams as they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 72.53% for their opponents, a differential of 0.55% and they should only get better offensively with Robert Griffin back from injury (though losing Orakpo defensively is a big loss). RG3 looked fine in his return before the bye in Minnesota and now he goes into his 2nd start back from injury after a bye. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.50% rate, as opposed to 76.38% for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. However, they should still be the right side.
Washington Redskins 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7.5
Confidence: Medium
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