Green Bay Packers 2014 NFL Season Preview

July 7, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Packers have been killed by injuries over the past few seasons. They had the 3^rd most adjusted games lost in 2013, the most adjusted games lost in 2012, and the most adjusted games lost in 2010. They’ve still had success in spite of that, going 11-5 in 2012, going 10-6 and winning the Super Bowl in 2010. In 2011, when they had an average amount of injuries (16^th), they went 15-1, though they were unfortunately knocked out in their first playoff game.

However, last season, they were unable to be successful in spite of all the injuries they suffered, going 8-7-1, making it to the post-season, but doing so with the worst record among playoff teams. That’s because their stabilizer, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, missed essentially 8 games (he had 2 attempts in their week 9 game against the Bears before breaking his collarbone). The Packers went 6-2 in the 8 regular season games that Rodgers played and then they lost by a mere field goal in their playoff game against the 49ers with Rodgers. That’s opposed to 2-5-1 in the 8 games that Rodgers missed.

In the 8 games that Rodgers played, the Packers moved the chains at a 77.78% rate, which would have been 3^rd best in the NFL. In their other 8 games, they moved the chains at a 72.33% rate, which would have been 13^th best in the NFL. They needed that explosive offense because their defense allowed opponents to move the chains at a 74.60% rate, 25^th in the NFL. If they have an average amount of injuries and keep Rodgers on the field all season, they should be a much improved team on both sides of the ball and once again be one of the best teams in the NFL. They have the talent. I’m confident that they should have fewer injuries this season as injuries tend to even out in the long run.

Obviously Aaron Rodgers is the important one to keep healthy. Even if they have an absurd amount of injuries again, the Packers should be an improved team as long as Rodgers stays healthy all year, though they’ll need the rest of the team to stay healthy around Rodgers as well if they are going to make another Super Bowl run. Over the past 5 seasons, Rodgers has played 71 games (only missing 2 games combined from 2009-2012) and completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.40 YPA, 159 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions, a QB rating of 108.2. He’s also rushed for 1308 yards and 14 touchdowns on 266 carries, an average of 4.92 YPC.

He was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked quarterback last season despite missing half the season, with no one grading out higher at the position and playing fewer snaps. From 2009-2012, he was a top-5 quarterback on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons. Only Drew Brees also did that. As long as he’s on the field (and his injury history is pretty limited), Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, if not the best. If the Packers can stay healthy around him, they have the talent to be a Super Bowl contender. Their Super Bowl odds of 14-1 might be worth a play.

Grade: A

Running Backs

As I mentioned earlier, the Packers’ offense was significantly worse without Aaron Rodgers on the field, moving the chains at a 72.33% rate, close to 6% lower than their rate with Rodgers in the lineup. However, that rate still would have been 13^th best in the NFL over the course of a full season. They were still able to move the chains decently well even with the likes of Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallace, and Matt Flynn, below average backup caliber quarterbacks, on the field. Part of that is their offensive coaching staff, led by head coach Mike McCarthy, but it also has to do with how good their offensive supporting cast is.

A big part of that supporting cast was running back Eddie Lacy. Lacy rushed for 1178 yards and 11 touchdowns on 284 attempts, an average of 4.15 YPC. He also added 35 catches for 257 yards, en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. That YPC doesn’t seem terribly impressive, but he consistently carried the load, got positive yardage, and moved the chains. He had 73 first downs on 319 targets, including 61 first downs on 284 carries. He was 5^th among running backs in rushing first downs.

He also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked running back, grading out above average as both a runner and a pass catcher. On top of that, he played his best football when Aaron Rodgers was out of the lineup, helping to carry this team. He rushed for 666 yards and 7 touchdowns on 151 carries, an average of 4.41 YPC, and added 21 catches for 164 yards in the 8 games Rodgers missed. In their other 8 games, he rushed for 512 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 carries, an average of 3.85 YPC, and added 14 catches for 103 yards. Going into his 2^nd year in the league, Lacy could be even better, after playing most of his rookie year through an ankle injury. A full season of Aaron Rodgers will give him more running room and touchdown opportunities and if he runs like he did when Rodgers was out last year, he’ll give the Packers an incredibly potent balanced offense.

The Packers also got great play from backup running back James Starks last season, as he rushed for 493 yards and 3 touchdowns on 89 carries, an average of 5.54 YPC. The Packers brought him back as a free agent in the same role. He’s dealt with injuries dating back to his collegiate career at the University of Buffalo, which is why the talented runner fell to the 6^th round in 2010. He’s averaged 4.43 YPC for his career, but he’s also never played more than 13 games in a season. As long as he’s healthy, he should provide them a solid backup running back, but he’s frequently hurt.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Part of the Packers’ strong offensive supporting cast was their strong receiving corps. Jordy Nelson was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked wide receiver last season. Nelson caught 85 passes on 120 targets (70.8%) for 1314 yards and 8 touchdowns on 645 routes run, an average of 2.04 yards per route run. He was outstanding in the 8 games that Rodgers played last season, catching 49 passes on 67 targets (73.1%) for 810 yards and 8 touchdowns on 327 routes run, an average of 2.48 yards per route run. However, he was still alright when Rodgers was out of the lineup, catching 36 passes on 53 targets (67.9%) for 504 yards and a touchdown on 318 routes run, an average of 1.54 yards per route run. Last year was a career high for him in catches and yards and he should have another strong year this year.

Nelson may see fewer targets this season because Randall Cobb is coming back from injury. The dynamic slot man was limited to 340 snaps last season because of a broken leg. A 2011 2^nd round pick, Cobb caught 25 passes on 31 targets (80.6%) for 375 yards and a touchdown on 174 routes run, an average of 2.16 yards per route run. He then had a breakout year in 2012, catching 80 passes on 102 targets (78.4%) for 954 yards and 8 touchdowns on 422 routes run, an average of 2.26 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ #11 ranked wide receiver that season. He looked on his way to a similar season in 2013, but injuries derailed that, limiting him to 6 games. He caught 31 passes on 40 targets (77.5%) for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns on 209 routes run, an average of 2.07 yards per route run. Going into his contract year this year, without much of an injury history, he should have another year similar to 2012.

Jarrett Boykin stepped up in Cobb’s absence, catching 49 passes on 75 targets (65.3%) for 681 yards on 410 routes run, an average of 1.66 yards per route run. Boykin was a 2012 7^th round pick and only played 96 snaps as a rookie. James Jones is gone so Boykin will probably replace him and his production. He had 59 catches on 88 targets (67.0%) for 817 yards on 527 routes run (1.55 yards per route run) and 3 touchdowns last season. Boykin is expected to be the 3^rd receiver behind Nelson and Cobb. He’ll get some competition from 2^nd round rookie Davante Adams, but most likely Adams won’t see a big role until 2015. Both Cobb and Nelson are free agents this off-season and the Packers seem unlikely to re-sign both, so that’s why they brought in Adams.

Jermichael Finley is another guy who got knocked out with a serious injury, going down with a neck injury after 259 snaps. That injury was career threatening and he’s still available as a free agent because of concern about his spinal fusion surgery. Andrew Quarless led Packer tight ends in snaps played last season with 703. The Packers re-signed Quarless to compete for the starting job. Quarless has graded out below average in 2 of the 3 seasons he’s played since being drafted in the 5^th round in 2010. He’s also missed 21 games in 4 seasons. He’ll compete with 3^rd round rookie Richard Rodgers, who is reportedly impressing in off-season practice. Most likely, Quarless, the superior blocker, will work as an inline blocking tight end, while Rodgers functions as a pass catching tight end. It’s a strong receiving corps.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The issue offensively for the Packers is their offensive line, which is clearly their weakest unit. Things could be worse this season as they lost center Evan Dietrich-Smith to free agency this off-season. Evan Dietrich-Smith took over as the starting center from Jeff Saturday late in the 2012 season and played solid in limited action. He then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked center in 2013 in his first full season as a starter. Either JC Tretter, a collegiate offensive tackle and a 2013 4^th round pick who missed his whole rookie year with injury, or 5^th round rookie Corey Lindley will be the starter this season. It’s a position of weakness.

It’s not all losses for the Packers upfront though, as they get Bryan Bulaga back from an injury that cost him the entire season. He’s missed 23 games in the past 2 seasons combined and 27 games over the past 3 seasons combined so he’s still an injury concern. He’ll slot back in at right tackle, where he graded out below average on 587 snaps in 2012. He could continue to struggle as he returns from injury. He was Pro Football Focus’ 71^st ranked offensive tackle out of 78 eligible as a rookie in 2010, but he was 7^th in 2011, so it’s tough to know what to expect from him, if he can even stay healthy. He should be an upgrade over Don Barclay, who started at right tackle and graded out 57^th out of 76 eligible offensive tackles last season.

The Packers got poor play from both tackle spots last season, but unfortunately they were unable to upgrade the blindside this off-season. 2013 4^th round pick David Bakhtiari struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 62^nd out of 76 eligible rookies, even worse than Barclay. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there are also reasons why he fell to the mid rounds so there’s obviously no guarantee. He’s one of the worst blindside protectors in the league.

Fortunately, things are much better at guard, where left guard Josh Sitton and right guard TJ Lang graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd and 15^th ranked guard respectively in 2014. Sitton has done this kind of thing before and he’s one of the best guards in the NFL. He’s been a top-8 guard in each of the past 5 seasons, something no other guard has done. Lang has been more inconsistent. A 3-year starter with the versatility to play any position other than center if needed (but he’s best at guard), Lang graded out below average in 2012, but ranked 22^nd in 2011. Last season was his first full year at right guard and that might just be the best spot for him, so he could easily have another strong year, but his history of inconsistency is worth mentioning. There’s definitely some talent here, but it’s their weakest offensive unit.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the Packers had a lot of issues defensively last year, but a big part of that was that they had key players miss significant time with injury. They should be better this year. The biggest bright spot on their weak defense last season was the emergence of 2^nd year player Mike Daniels at 5-technique. The 2012 4^th round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season on 517 snaps. The 6-0 294 pounder was primarily an interior pass rusher in sub packages and he should primarily be that again, though he will probably see more snaps. He played 275 snaps in the Packers’ final 8 games. He’s still a one year wonder, grading out below average on 231 snaps as a rookie, but he could easily have another strong year.

Datone Jones was the Packers’ 2013 first round pick. He struggled on 263 snaps as a rookie. If he had been eligible, he would have been Pro Football Focus’ 9^th worst ranked 3-4 defensive end, despite his limited playing time. No one graded out lower and played fewer snaps at his position. He’ll have a bigger role in 2014 and the Packers are expecting him to be a lot better in the 2^nd year in the league, which he very well could be. He’s very unproven though.

BJ Raji will start at nose tackle. Raji reportedly turned down a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension from the Packers before last season. If that’s true, he has to be kicking himself hard, as he ended up re-signing for 4 million over 1 year. The Packers originally offered Raji that 1-year, 4 million dollar deal before the start of the off-season, but he turned it down in favor of hitting the open market. Clearly, the open market did not prove to be as lucrative as he expected as he was forced to settle for that one-year deal. It was a rough off-season for him.

However, that’s what happens when you have as bad of a season as Raji had last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. This type of thing is nothing new for him. Sure, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012 (with 3 games at nose tackle in which he was about average), but he has a history of inconsistency. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked defensive tackle in 2011, but in 2010, he was their 35^th ranked defensive tackle before a dominant post-season on the Packers’ Super Bowl run. It’s really tough to know what to expect from him. The 6-1 337 pounder will probably only be a base package player this year. He can rush the passer from time to time, but the Packers have other guys capable of doing so better. The Packers also drafted Khryi Thornton in the 3^rd round and the 6-3 304 pounder could contribute in base packages.

One of those better pass rushers is Mike Neal, a 6-3 294 pounder. The Packers will be moving him back to his old role as a situational interior pass rusher after a failed experiment playing him at outside linebacker, which seemed doomed from the start. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season. However, he graded out above average as a defensive linemen in 2 out of 3 seasons from 2010-2012, doing so on 266 snaps in 2012 and he should have a situational interior pass rush role this season. The Packers also have Jerel Worthy, a 2012 2^nd round pick. Worthy struggled as a rookie, grading out 30^th out of 34 eligible on 467 snaps played, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out lower. He then tore his ACL late in the season and was limited to 12 snaps in 2013 by a combination of his ACL and his previous struggles. He could have a role this season, but he might just be a bust.

The Packers big off-season signing was Julius Peppers, who they gave a 3-year, 26 million dollar deal upon the potential future Hall-of-Famer’s release from Chicago. He’s had a great career, but his best days are behind him, so this was an overpay, even if only 8.5 million over 1 season is guaranteed. A once dominant edge rusher, who graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2008-2012 and in the top-10 among 4-3 defensive end in every season from 2008-2011, Peppers has graded out 17th and 40th among 4-3 defensive ends over the last 2 seasons respectively. Last season, he actually graded out below average and that 40th place finish came out of just 52 eligible at the position. Peppers will play a versatile role as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 3-4 defensive end, an a sub package edge rusher and interior rusher, at 6-5 283. He’s also never played in a 3-4, which is another minor concern.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Part of the reason why the Packers brought in Peppers was to provide depth at the edge rusher position. Clay Matthews has missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, while Nick Perry has missed 15 games over the past 2 seasons. Last year, they missed a combined 10 games, part of the Packers’ consistent, season long injury problems, and Mike Neal led the position in snaps played with 746 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker.

At the same time, rookies Andy Mulumba and Nate Palmer had to play 304 snaps and 200 snaps respectively. Both struggled mightily, as is to be expected since they were an undrafted rookie and a 6^th round rookie respectively. Mulumba was Pro Football Focus’ 36^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 42 eligible, despite his limited snap count, while Palmer was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker regardless of snap count. Assuming Matthews and Perry can stay healthier this season, and Julius Peppers doesn’t see his abilities completely fall off the cliff, the Packers should get better play from the edge rusher spots.

When Matthews is healthy, he’s one of the better edge rushers in the NFL. The 2009 1^st round pick graded out as a top-6 3-4 outside linebacker in every season from 2009-2012, including #1 in 2012. No other 3-4 outside linebacker did the same thing. He struggled last season by his standards, even when on the field, on 571 snaps, playing through injury and grading out just about average. However, if he’s healthy, he could easily have another dominant year this year, only going into his age 28 season. That would be a big boost to this defense.

Nick Perry, meanwhile, is supposedly very talented, going in the first round in 2012, but he hasn’t been able to be healthy enough to show it yet. He’s played a combined 585 snaps in 17 games in 2 seasons in the league and generally graded out about average. If he can stay healthy, he could have a breakout year in his 3^rd year in the league, but that’s a big if. His injury history is a big part of the reason why they brought in Peppers. As I mentioned, they should get better play from the edge rusher spots this season.

AJ Hawk and Brad Jones remain as starters at middle linebacker. Jones had issues with injuries last season as well, missing 4 games and playing a total of 594 snaps. Jones struggled, grading out below average when he played. He was much better in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked middle linebacker, making 10 starts and playing 687 snaps, but he’s still a one year wonder. The 2009 7^th round pick played a combined 763 snaps from 2009-2011 and wasn’t particularly impressive, grading out below average in all 3 seasons. In the only good season he’s had in the league, he still only made 10 starts. He could have a bounce back year in a healthier season, but there are no guarantees.

AJ Hawk, meanwhile, is a mainstay, missing a combined 2 games in 8 seasons since being drafted 5^th overall in 2006. Hawk has been a bust in that he’s never lived up to where he was drafted, but he keeps staying around. I don’t know he keeps staying around though, as he’s graded out below average in every season but 1 since 2007, including 47^th out of 55 eligible last season. He’s always been better in coverage than against the run and he struggled mightily against the run last season, grading out 4^th worst at his position in pure run grade. Now going into his age 30 season, he’s not getting any better any time soon. There’s a chance that Jamari Lattimore could push him for snaps at some point this season. Lattimore is inexperienced (310 career snaps) and went undrafted in 2011, but he flashed on 272 snaps last season, grading out slightly above average.

Grade: B-

Secondary

One of the biggest re-additions from injury for the Packers going into 2014 (along with Clay Matthews, Aaron Rodgers, and Randall Cobb) is cornerback Casey Hayward, a 2012 2nd round pick who I argued should have been Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2012. He was the Packers’ nickel cornerback, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have an important role. Because the Packers are in their sub packages so frequently, Hayward played on 703 of the Packers’ 1118 regular season defensive snaps, around 63%. He also made 7 starts when injuries struck.

Despite not being a full-time starter, only three players (Tarell Brown, Antoine Winfield, Cortland Finnegan) played more pass snaps and didn’t surrender a touchdown and Hayward’s interception total, 6, was double the high of anyone in that group. He also got his hands on 12 more balls, deflecting them, a number that was tied for the most among players who didn’t surrender a touchdown and was tied for 6th overall in the NFL. His 6 interceptions, meanwhile, were 4th in the NFL.

As you can imagine, when a player allows 0 touchdowns and picks off 6 passes, his QB rating against must be pretty low. That was exactly the case with Hayward. His 31.1 QB rating allowed was not only the best in the league among those eligible, but among players ineligible, only Darrelle Revis played more than 29 snaps and allowed a lower QB rating and he only played 93. Only Richard Sherman played more snaps than him and had a QB rating that even rivaled his and his was 10 points higher at 41.1.

It wasn’t just a great touchdown to interception ratio powering that low QB rating. Hayward allowed 33 completions all year, on 74 attempts, a 44.6% completion percentage. He surrendered just 456 yards, 6.2 YPA. He also was not penalized all year and played the run well, as well. He ranked 4th among eligible cornerbacks in run stop % and missed just 3 tackles all season. For all his efforts, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked cornerback. Hayward played 88 snaps last season thanks to hamstring problems and their secondary suffered as a result. He’ll return to the slot this season and could turn into a starter if needed.

He could be needed to become a starter, especially if he continues to play well. The Packers re-signed Sam Shields to a 4-year, 39 million dollar deal this off-season, but that was a massive overpay. He was Pro Football Focus’ 51^st ranked cornerback this past season (though he was 35^th in pure coverage grade). Shields has definitely flashed in the past, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked cornerback in 2012 and dominating down the stretch as an undrafted rookie in 2010 on the Packers’ Super Bowl run. However, he also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 92nd ranked cornerback in 2011 and then there was last year. He’s also never played a full 16 game season, missing 11 games in 4 seasons, including 6 games missed in his dominant 2012 season. That’s a very inconsistent history.

Tramon Williams had a better season last season than Shields, grading out as Pro Football Focus 39^th ranked cornerback, above average, but he’s going into his age 31 season. He’s shown decline over the past few seasons, since grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked cornerback in 2009, 8^th ranked cornerback in 2010 and 8^th ranked cornerback in coverage grade in 2011 (25^th overall). He was Pro Football Focus’ 61^st ranked cornerback in 2012 (though he was 29^th in coverage grade) and then 39^th last season. He might have another season as an above average starter in him, but it’s possible that Hayward is just their best cornerback.

The Packers used their first round pick in this past draft on HaHa Clinton-Dix and he should give them an upgrade at one safety spot over the combination of Jerron McMillian and MD Jennings that manned that position last season. The former was their week 1 starter, but was so bad that he ended up getting benched and then cut, despite a very minimal salary. He played 196 snaps, but he would have graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th worst safety last season despite his very limited playing time, if he was eligible. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. The latter, Jennings, took over as the starter from there on out, playing 809 snaps, but he wasn’t much better, grading out 70^th at his position out of 86 eligible. Clinton-Dix should be at least a decent starter as a rookie.

Morgan Burnett returns as the other starting safety and he too struggled last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 63^rd ranked safety out of 86 eligible. He could bounce back though, based on his history as a starter. The 2010 3^rd round pick graded out above average in his first 2 seasons as a starter in 2011 and 2012, ranking 15^th in 2012 and 31^st in 2011. His potential bounce back season is another reason why the Packers should be an improved defensive team this year.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

Simply having Aaron Rodgers healthy this season should make the Packers one of the better teams in the NFL again this season. Rodgers went 46-16 as a starter from 2009-2012, missing a combined 2 games (one was because the Packers had already clinched the #1 seed in the NFC) and then he was 6-2 last season in games in which he started and finished. He’s so talented and has such a strong offensive supporting cast that the Packers can push to be the best offensive team in the league if Rodgers is healthy all year, which he should be.

However, if they can have at least average health around Rodgers, that could take them to the next level. Losing guys like Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, and Casey Hayward to significant injuries last season around Rodgers also really hurt them. On paper, this is one of the more talented teams in the NFL, provided they can stay healthy. The Broncos showed last season that even an average defense, when paired with a dominant offense, can make for a dominant football team. I’ll have an official prediction for them after I finish every team’s preview.

Prediction: 12-4 2nd in NFC North

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Detroit Lions 2014 NFL Season Preview

July 6, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Lions went 4-12 in 2012, but they were much better than their record suggested. They went 3-8 in games decided by a touchdown in 2012 and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, coming from their -65 point differential. That point differential would have been much better if they hadn’t allowed 10 return touchdowns, while scoring none for themselves. If that was zeroed out, they would have had a +5 point differential and essentially been an 8-8 team.

Going off of that, they had an unsustainably poor turnover margin of -13, largely because of an unsustainably poor fumble recovery rate of 32.56%. Turnover margins (and along with that return touchdown margins) are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Lions ranked 16^th in DVOA in 2012 despite their record and they were supposed to be a significantly improved team last season.

They were an improved team, going 7-9, but they still missed out on the playoffs and they still were better than their record. They still had a -12 turnover margin, driven by a 42.55% fumble recovery rate. They still went 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.5 wins. The things that are supposed to even out in the long run (record in close games, fumble recovery, turnover margin) have not been evening out for this team over the past 2 seasons. The Lions fired head coach Jim Schwartz in an effort to fix this.

They replaced him with Jim Caldwell, which was kind of a weird move. The Lions will be hoping that they’re getting the coach who went 24-8 in his first 2 years with the Colts, the coach who was recommended by Peyton Manning, and the offensive coordinator who turned the Ravens’ offense around mid-season in 2012 en route to a Super Bowl victory, rather than the coach who went 2-14 in his only season with the Colts without Peyton Manning, getting fired, and the offensive coordinator who led one of the worst offenses in the league last season in Baltimore.

Either way, the Lions could easily see their poor record in close games and their poor turnover margin even out in their first year under Caldwell. They were 6^th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, with a differential of 5.42%. They moved the chains at a 73.92% rate, 10^th in the NFL, and they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 68.50% rate, 9^th in the NFL. They have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NFL, which this preview will demonstrate. Almost every season, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. I think the Lions have a good chance to be that team, if anyone does. I feel the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers before last season, when I predicted them to go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get the #2 seed in the NFC.

Quarterback Matt Stafford is a big part of that talent. His numbers last season weren’t great, as he completed 58.5% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, a QB rating of 84.2 that ranked 19^th in the NFL last season. However, Stafford also had a league high 58 passes dropped for a combined 513 yards in the air. When you look at his adjusted QB rating, which takes into account dropped passes, throw aways, spikes, and yards in the air, he was 15^th in the NFL.

Meanwhile, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked quarterback last season and graded out 4^th in terms of pure passing grade. He did struggle as a runner, grading out below average in that aspect and rushing for 69 yards on 37 carries, an average of 1.86 YPC. Still, he’s better than his numbers suggest, leading an offense that ranked highly in rate of moving the chains despite consistent dropped passes by his receiving corps.

Stafford, the first overall pick in 2009, struggled in his first 2 years in the NFL, missing 19 games and completing 54.5% of his passes for an average of 5.92 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. However, he’s played all 48 games over the past 3 seasons, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 90 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions. He’s also been better than his numbers, as he had 46 passes dropped in 2011 (most in the NFL), 49 passes dropped in 2012 (2^nd most in the NFL), and then, of course, he had the most passes dropped in the NFL last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked quarterback in 2011 and 13^th ranked quarterback in 2012.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Lions obviously still have Calvin Johnson, who is one of, if not the best wide receiver in the game. He had a “down year” in 2013 with 84 catches for 1492 yards and 12 touchdowns, his lowest catch and yardage totals since 2010. That was really only because he missed 2 games with injury (after playing all 16 games in the previous 2 seasons). His absence was definitely missed as Matt Stafford completed 47 of 73 for 479 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in the two games Johnson didn’t play as the Lions scored 22 points and lost both games.

Last season was actually the best season of Johnson’s career in terms of yards per route run, as he averaged 2.72 yards per route run. He’s averaged 2.55 yards per route run over the past 3 seasons since Stafford broke out as a starter. Even in 2011, when the Lions had poor quarterback play, he averaged 1.87 yards per route run and graded out 3^rd at his position. He’s been a top-5 wide receiver in the NFL on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 4 seasons, the only receiver in the league to do so.

The Lions clearly needed to upgrade the receiving corps around Johnson this off-season. They really needed a #2 wide receiver opposite Johnson and they definitely needed someone who could step up as a #1 receiver if Johnson does miss some games. To fix this issue, they signed Golden Tate to a 5-year, 31 million dollar deal with 13.25 million guaranteed. Golden Tate has never had a 1000 yard season, but he’s been stuck on a run heavy team in Seattle, since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2010. He caught 45 passes on 65 attempts (69.2%) for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns on 378 routes run (1.80 yards per route run) in 2012. In 2013, he caught 64 passes on 93 attempts (68.8%) for 898 yards and 5 touchdowns on 447 routes run (2.01 yards per route run).

He’s also dropped just 5 passes to 109 catches, which has to be music to Matt Stafford’s ears. Tate will see plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson and could run 500-600 routes in a pass heavier offense. He won’t see any downgrade in terms of his quarterback’s passing ability going from Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford and he could easily have 1000 receiving yards. He and Calvin Johnson instantly give the Lions one of the best wide receiving duos in the NFL.

That’s a big difference compared to last season when Kris Durham led Lion pass catchers in routes run with 586. Durham was Pro Football Focus 2^nd worst ranked wide receiver last season, catching 38 passes on 82 targets (46.3%) for 490 yards on 568 routes run (0.86 yards per route run). He also dropped 10 passes. Durham will be no higher than the 4^th wide receiver this season. He’ll have a minimal role, if he has any at all, and he’s on the roster bubble. Aside from Calvin Johnson, of the 7 wide receivers who played a snap for the Lions last season, 6 of them graded out below average.

In addition to Golden Tate coming in, Ryan Broyles is coming back from injury. Broyles is tough and a fast healer, but it’s easy to be skeptical about his recovery. Broyles is a talented player who was a 2^nd round pick in 2012 and he could have gone in the first round if he didn’t tear his ACL in his senior season at Oklahoma. However, he’s missed 16 games over the past 2 seasons combined, tearing his other ACL in 2012 and then his Achilles in 2013. That’s an intense injury history. He’s expected to be ready for the start of next season, but he’s an unproven, playing 476 snaps over the past 2 seasons respectively and he’s already admitted he’s not as explosive as he once was, which is definitely understandable. He’s also a serious re-injury risk.

Running back Reggie Bush will also be a big part of their passing game and line up in the slot from time to time. He caught 54 passes for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns last season on 303 routes last season, an average of 1.67 yards per route run. He’s not a fantastic pass catcher (grading out right about average as a running back in pass catching grade), but he could see more pass catching production this season with Joe Lombardi coming in as offensive coordinator from New Orleans, where he was the quarterbacks coach from 2009-2013. He’s expected to utilize Bush the same way that the Saints utilized Darren Sproles, who caught an average of 77 passes over the past 3 seasons.

Eric Ebron, the 10^th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, will also line up in the slot from time to time. He’ll play a bunch of different roles as a move tight end and the #2 tight end as a rookie. Brandon Pettigrew was brought back as the starting tight end on a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal. He’ll be primarily a blocking tight end. I think that deal was a mistake, not just because it means that Eric Ebron won’t have a bigger role, but also because Pettigrew was one of the inefficiencies in this offense last season. He’s not worth that kind of money and the cap strapped Lions could have easily used that money elsewhere. The Lions also have 2^nd year tight end Joseph Fauria, who graded out above average as a pass catcher and a run blocker on 312 snaps, as an undrafted rookie last year. He’ll have a much smaller role this season, even though he’s probably better than Pettigrew.

Pettigrew has graded out above average as a run blocker in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but he’s graded out below average as a pass catcher in every season he’s been in the league, since being drafted in the first round in 2009. He was Pro Football Focus’ 58^th ranked tight end out of 64 eligible in 2012, including 61^st as a pass catcher as he averaged 1.18 yards per route run and dropped 9 passes. In 5 years in the league, he’s averaged 1.28 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked tight end in pass catching grade last season and averaged 0.98 yards per route run. The Lions should phase him out of the offense over the next 2 seasons in favor of the incredibly athletic, but still raw Ebron. With the additions of Tate and Ebron, it’s a much improved receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Lions use Reggie Bush in the passing game a lot. Bush has gotten over his early career injury problems, playing 45 out of 48 games in the past 2 seasons as a starter in Miami and Detroit. However, he still hasn’t been the type of running back he was supposed to be when the Saints took him 2^nd overall in 2006. He’s averaged 4.62 YPC over the past 3 seasons as a starter, doing so on 666 carries, but he hasn’t been as good as that suggests.

He graded out below average in run grade in 2011 and 2012 and about average in 2013 and he’s fumbled 13 times over the past 3 seasons. He’s going into his age 29 season so he’s not getting any better. The Lions are planning on scaling back Bush’s role as a runner, as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from the Sean Payton coaching tree in New Orleans and plans to use Bush as they did with Darren Sproles in New Orleans. Sproles caught an average of 77 passes over the past 3 seasons. Reggie Bush has caught an average of 44 over the past 3 seasons and could catch 60 passes this season. At the same time, he could see his carries drop down from 223 to the 140-160 range.

Any loss in carries by Bush will be the benefit of Joique Bell, which Bush has said publicly he is fine with. The Lions have been a pass happy, 3-wide receiver team over the past 3 seasons, averaging 680 pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Now they will be more of a traditional offense. They used their first round pick on Eric Ebron, which means they’ll use more two-tight end sets (though they obviously still have the ability to throw out of two-tight end sets). They signed a traditional fullback in Jed Collins, who comes with Lombardi over New Orleans, where he’s graded out above average in 2 of the past 3 seasons as a starter, including a 2011 season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked fullback.

They also gave a 3-year, 9.3 million dollar extension to restricted free agent Joique Bell, who figures to lead the team in carries in their new more traditional offense. The 5-11 220 pounder is their best traditional runner. He doesn’t have as many breakaway runs as Bush, but he had 65 first downs on 219 touches last season, while Bush had 68 first downs on 277 touches. The Lions could easily be getting a steal with that 3-year deal.

Over the past 2 seasons, Bell has been one of the more important backup running backs in the NFL. Last season, he played 562 snaps, 23rd most in the NFL among running backs. A former undrafted free agent, Bell graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked running back in 2013 and 12th ranked in 2012. In the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 4.29 yards per carry, while serving as a valuable goal line back (11 touchdowns) and receiver out of the backfield (105 catches).

Bell’s pass catching ability might actually be better than Bush’s (though the Lions don’t split him into the slot nearly as often) and his pass catching ability allows the Lions to pass out of traditional running formations, as does Ebron. Bell was actually 2^nd on the team in receiving yards, catching 53 catches for 547 yards last season. Bush is owed 3.25 million non-guaranteed in his age 30 season in 2015 so Bush could be gone next off-season and Bell could be a three-down feature back that season.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As good as Calvin Johnson is, the best unit on the Lions’ offense is their offensive line. The Lions allowed 23 sacks last season, 2^nd fewest in the NFL, which is even more impressive when you consider that they passed 634 times, 5^th most in the NFL. Part of that is how quickly Matt Stafford gets rid of the ball and how strong his pocket presence is. Stafford averaged 2.41 seconds from snap to throw last season, 8^th fastest among eligible quarterbacks, and he was sacked on 11.9% of pressured snaps, 3^rd most infrequently among eligible quarterbacks. This isn’t a new trend. In 2012, he was sacked on 13.3% of pressured snaps, 4^th most infrequently among eligible quarterbacks, even though he got rid of the ball in 2.56 seconds from snap to throw on average.

However, much of that low sack number had to do with how well the Lions’ offensive line played. The biggest addition to the unit was rookie right guard Larry Warford, a 2013 3rd round pick, who I argued should have been Offensive Rookie of the Year last season. Warford played every snap one of Detroit’s 1158 offensive snaps as a rookie. Warford didn’t allow a single sack from the right guard spot and only allowed 5 quarterback hits and 10 hurries, while committing just 4 penalties this season. That’s insane, regardless of how quickly his quarterback gets rid of the ball and how good his quarterback’s pocket presence is.

Warford played every snap over a 16 game season and only allowed his man to even get close to the quarterback 15 times. In fact, he only allowed more than 2 quarterback pressures in a game once and that was against Cincinnati, when he was frequently matched up with all-everything defensive tackle Geno Atkins, before Atkins’ injury. On top of that, the right guard gap produced 4.77 yards per carry for the Lions, a team that averaged just 4.04 yards per carry overall. As a result, Warford was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked guard and was an obvious Pro-Bowl snub. He’s obviously still a one year wonder, as he was a rookie last year, but I’m confident he can have another dominant year.

Warford wasn’t the Lions’ only talented rookie last season, as undrafted free agent LaAdrian Waddle played very well as a rookie, taking over as the starter at right tackle in week 8 and playing 553 snaps on the season. He played much better than veteran Corey Hilliard, who graded below average to start the season on 459 snaps. Waddle graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked offensive tackle, despite the limited playing time. He’s expected to enter the season as the starter again. He could easily have another strong season, possibly even stronger now that he’ll be the starter for the full season, though the fact that he was only an undrafted free agent in 2013 is still a concern. About 14 months ago, no name in the NFL believed he was worth being drafted.

On the flip side, the Lions have an aging player at center in Dominic Raiola. He’s going into his age 36 season, and he looked done as recently as 2010-2011, when he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in both seasons, including 5th worst among centers in 2010. However, he’s put together back-to-back strong seasons over the past two seasons, grading out 13th and 2nd among centers in 2012 and 2013 respectively. At his age, he doesn’t have much time left, but he could easily have another strong season left in the tank, so credit the Lions for keeping him at a very reasonable rate (1.5 million over 1 season) this off-season.

Warford didn’t miss a snap all last season. Raiola missed 2 snaps all last season. On top of that, left guard Rob Sims didn’t miss a snap all last season either. Sims did have a down season, grading out only about average. However, he was awesome from 2009-2012. He graded out well above average in each of those 4 seasons, grading out 10^th in 2009, 33^rd in 2010, 13^th in 2011, and 11^th in 2012. He’s going into his age 31 season so the fact that he had a down season last year is a concern, but he could bounce back.

Riley Reiff at left tackle, meanwhile, only missed 31 snaps all of last season, though he did struggle last season, grading out below average. The 2012 1^st round pick was in his first year as a starter, though he impressed on 336 snaps as a rookie. Going into his 3^rd year in the league, the talented offensive lineman could be better and show some of the talent that flashed in his rookie season. It’s a very strong offensive line overall either way.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

The Lions have a pretty weak secondary, but so did the Panthers going into last season. The Lions also had a weak secondary last season and their defense actually still played pretty well, ranking 9^th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. That’s because their defensive line played so well, getting consistent pressure on the quarterback, as they graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked team in terms of pass rush grade last season.

Much of that was powered by a fantastic year by defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked defensive tackle last season. He’s had a strong career since being drafted 2^nd overall in 2010, but last season was arguably the best season of his career. He’s never matched the 10 sacks he had as a rookie, but he’s become a much better run stopper and gotten much more consistent pass rush since then.

He actually graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in the first 2 seasons of his career in 2010 and 2011 because of his poor run play. In fact, last season was the first time in his career that he had graded out above average as a run stopper. However, he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 4^th and 2^nd ranked defensive tackle in 2012 and 2013 respectively. He and Gerald McCoy are the only two defensive tackles to grade out in the top-3 in each of the last 2 seasons. Aside from McCoy and maybe the versatile Kyle Williams (who can play 3-4 defensive end, 4-3 defensive tackle, and 3-4 nose tackle), Suh is probably the best defensive tackle in the NFL.

Next to Suh, the Lions have another defensive tackle who has the potential to be one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL like Suh, but he’s yet to show the consistency necessary for him to be one. Nick Fairley, the 13^th overall pick in 2011, flashed as a rookie on 236 snaps, grading out above average, and then was dominant in 2012 on 511 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked defensive tackle, one slot below Suh. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher.

He looked poised for a breakout year in a bigger role in his 3^rd year in the league in 2013, but he graded out just about average on 693 snaps. The Lions have had issues with his discipline and his weight and he’s also committed 22 penalties over the past 2 seasons. The Lions are putting the pressure on him going into his contract year. They didn’t pick up his 5^th year option on his rookie deal so he’s going into his contract year. He’s reportedly responded by slimming down to 295 pounds from 322 and he could have a big year with financial motivation on the line. However, he’s had motivational issues dating back to his collegiate days at Copiah-Lincoln Community College and then at Auburn University, so there are no guarantees.

The Lions also have talented reserve CJ Mosley in the mix at defensive tackle. Mosley was Pro Football Focus’ 21^st ranked defensive tackle on just 333 snaps last season, excelling against the run. This is nothing new as Mosley has graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, doing so as a reserve in 2011 and 2013 and as a starter in Jacksonville in 2012. The Lions also have Jason Jones coming back from injury. He’ll play defensive end in base packages and move inside on passing downs and rush the passer occasionally.

Jones is coming back from a torn patellar tendon he suffered week 3 of last season, which cut his season to 87 snaps. He’s expected to be ready for the start of the season, but that’s a tough injury to come back from. The 6-5 274 pounder has played both defensive end and defensive tackle in his career. He’s played well inside, grading out above average on limited snaps inside in both 2009 and 2012 and grading out 6^th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a starter in 2010. However, he’s struggled whenever he’s played defensive end, grading out 62^nd out of 67 eligible among 4-3 defensive ends as a starter in 2011 and then struggled before going down last season. Now coming off of a serious injury, I expect him to continue struggling as a base defensive end.

Devin Taylor could also get snaps at defensive end, as the Lions attempt to replace Willie Young, who played 801 snaps and graded out above average last season, but who is now in Chicago. Taylor graded out about average on 308 snaps as a 4^th round rookie last season and could see a bigger role this season. The Lions also drafted Kyle Van Noy in the 2^nd round and they are expected to use him in a hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker role, playing him in a base role at outside linebacker and a sub package role at defensive end, essentially the Von Miller role. He should lead the left end spot in pass rush snaps played.

At the right end spot, Ezekiel Ansah is expected to be an every down defensive end in his 2^nd year in the league. The 5^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Ansah graded out slightly below average on 581 snaps as a rookie. He’ll have a bigger role and he could easily play better. The 6-5 271 pounder was regarded as extremely raw coming out of BYU, as he only started playing football in 2010, and he played his best football of the season down the stretch last season. The Lions’ defensive line still has the ability to be one of the better pass rush teams in the league, which will help their defense play well in spite of their secondary.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Lions also have a strong linebacking corps, which helps their defense play well in spite of their secondary. I already mentioned Kyle Van Noy will be play outside in a base package role. He’ll replace Ashlee Palmer, who graded out below average on 367 snaps last season, playing primarily as a run stopper. Van Noy should be an upgrade in that regard in addition to providing pass rush in sub packages from the defensive line.

Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy return in every down roles, roles they excelled in last season. Tulloch graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked middle linebacker, while Levy graded out 9^th among 4-3 outside linebackers. Tulloch has done this kind of thing before, as he graded out above average as a starter in every season from 2008-2011, maxing out at 6^th overall in 2011. He struggled in 2012, grading out below average, but only because he was playing through a serious knee injury. He bounced back in a huge way in 2013 and should continue to play really well in 2014.

Levy, however, has never really done this kind of thing before as the 2009 3^rd round pick graded out below average in each of his last 4 seasons as a starter from 2009-2012, playing both middle linebacker and outside linebacker. He had a strong season last year, particularly in coverage, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in coverage (Tulloch was dominant in coverage too, which helped their secondary). However, he’s still a one year wonder and I’m skeptical he can do this again based on his history, but he can definitely prove me wrong.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned the issues the Lions have in the secondary multiple times, but it’s not all bad. Glover Quin was one of the best safeties in the NFL last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked safety. The 2009 4^th round pick has graded out above average in each of the last 4 seasons, playing cornerback in 2010 and then safety in 2011-2013. Last year was a career year for him so he might not repeat that kind of season, but he could easily have another above average season for a secondary that needs it.

The Lions lost Louis Delmas this off-season, cutting him rather than paying him 6 million. The formerly injury plagued safety played all 16 games last season and graded out above average, but the Lions didn’t feel he was worth his salary and let him go. They brought in veteran journeyman James Ihedibgo to be his replacement, paying him 3.15 million on a 2 year deal, which is obviously cheaper than Delmas. Ihedibgo graded out higher than Delmas did last season, grading out 15^th among safeties, while Delmas graded out 25^th.

However, much of that was because Ihedigbo was dominant against the run, grading out 2^nd at his position against the run. He really struggled in coverage, grading out 15^th worst at his position in that aspect. He’s also going into his age 31 season and joining the 4^th team of his career. He had a strong season last year, but that’s not the type of player he’s been in the past. Prior to last season, he had only once played more than 294 snaps in a season, doing so as a starter with the Patriots in 2011, when he graded out below average. He could easily regress this season, especially at his age, and he’s a downgrade compared to Delmas.

Things are worse at cornerback, where the Lions will be counting on an aging veteran to keep it together and two youngsters to step up. That aging veteran is Rashean Mathis, who is going into his age 34 season. Mathis looked done going into last season, as an aging cornerback who had graded out below average in 2 of the previous 3 seasons and missed 11 games in the previous 2 seasons. As a result, he was still available into mid-August, when he was snatched up by the Lions, and only played a combined 161 snaps in the Lions’ first 4 games.

However, he ended up making 13 starts, playing in 15 games, and playing 799 snaps. He was a big time contributor, allowing opponents to complete 48.9% of their passes against him and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked cornerback. It was a vintage year for the veteran. The Lions brought him back on another one-year deal, but considering his recent history and his age, as he’s now going into his age 34 season, it’s fair to be skeptical that he can be as good as he was last season.

With the injury plagued Chris Houston getting cut this off-season (he graded out well below average last season), Mathis is locked into a top-3 cornerback role on this team, along with Bill Bentley and Darius Slay, both of whom graded out well below average last season. Slay was a 2013 2^nd round pick and the natural talented 6-0 192 pounder could have a better year in his 2^nd year in the league. It’s tough for rookie cornerbacks to adjust to the NFL and Slay showed that, grading out 92^nd out of 110 eligible cornerbacks on just 353 snaps.

Bentley, meanwhile, was a 2012 3^rd round pick. He’s graded out well below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the NFL, doing so on 177 snaps as a rookie and 498 snaps last season. The Lions also used a 4^th round pick on Nevin Lawson and he could push for a significant role at cornerback down the stretch if things are bad. The secondary is easily the Lions’ weakest unit on the team, but they have an explosive offense and we’ve seen teams play well defensively even with a weak secondary if they have strong front 7 play. We saw the Panthers do it last year. We’ve seen the 49ers do it recently. We even saw the Lions do it last year, as they ranked 9^th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Lions are one of the top-10 talented teams in the NFL and the numbers agree with me, as they were 6^th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve had serious issues with turnovers and losses in close games over the past 2 seasons, which has stopped them from reaching the win totals they are capable of reaching. Both of those things usually even out in the long run. It might not seem like they will for the Lions because they’ve had so many issues in those aspect over the past 2 seasons, but that’s just because it hasn’t happened yet.

Replacing Jim Schwartz with Jim Caldwell could easily help even those things out, which would help the Lions become one of the better teams in the NFL. With essentially the same core, the Lions went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a +11 turnover margin in 2011, en route to a 10-6 season. I think they’re now more talented than they were then, but they’ve gone 6-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less and has a -25 turnover margin over the past 2 seasons. I think this team has the best chance to be this year’s team who goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. I’ll have an official wins prediction after I do every team’s preview.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC North

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2014 NFL Season Preview

July 6, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Jaguars have the smallest win total over/under in the NFL at 4.5, which suggests that the odds makers think they are the worst team in the NFL. Bet now on the greatest NFL lines here. However, teams with win totals of 6 or lower go over the total about 2/3rds of the time in that situation, as it’s very hard to be really bad for a long time. The Jaguars are a popular “sleeper” team and are popularly seen as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this off-season. I don’t understand that at all.

They signed Toby Gerhart, a backup from Minnesota, to be their starting running back. They overpaid for Zane Beadles and Ziggy Hood for the offensive and defensive lines respectively. They signed a pair of aging ex-Seahawk defensive linemen in Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. They have young players that could be improved this season, but I really don’t get why people see them as so improved. They drafted a pair of wide receivers in the 2^nd round, but rookie wide receivers tend to struggle and they’ll probably be without suspended wide receiver Justin Blackmon for the entire season. I don’t see anyone on the team who is in the top-200 players in the NFL.

They had the 3^rd overall pick in the draft, but they spent it on Blake Bortles, who won’t help them much this season. Bortles could end up being a great quarterback long-term, but the Jaguars are vowing that they’re going to go slow with him and ideally they wouldn’t play him as a rookie. He’ll only end up playing as a rookie if the starter struggles. That’ll probably happen, but either way, Bortles won’t be on the field until it’s too late for him to solve anything, even if he plays great. Obviously, there’s no guarantee he can do that, especially as a rookie.

That starter is Chad Henne, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback last season, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The 2008 2^nd pick has completed 59.5% for an average of 6.00 YPA, 55 touchdowns, and 62 interceptions in his career. He’s attempted 1876 passes in 6 seasons in the league. He’s 18-32 in his career and needs everything around him to be right for him to make the playoffs.

Grade: C

Running Backs

Everything definitely isn’t right around Henne. The Jaguars signed former Vikings backup running back Toby Gerhart to a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal worth 4.5 million guaranteed. He’ll be the starter and the Jaguars are talking him up as a 300+ carry three-down back. The 2010 2^nd round pick clearly has some talent, averaging 4.73 YPC on 276 carries (1305 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns) in 4 years in the league.

However, he has limited action, with an average of 69 carries per season and just 1125 snaps played in his career (an average of 281 snaps played per season). He’s graded out above average in 2 seasons and below average in 2 seasons and has played the majority of his snaps in passing situations, meaning, when he does carry the ball, he’s doing it against a defensive front that’s not expecting the run. The 6-0 231 pounder has caught 77 passes in his career, which is solid, but unspectacular, which is the same way he is as a pass protector. He has some three down potential, but he’s a serious projection to that role. The Jaguars are expected to pound the rock with Gerhart to take the pressure off of their passing game, though that plan is best executed when leading, which the Jaguars probably won’t be doing a lot of this season.

The Jaguars really don’t have another option to run the ball after Gerhart, which is probably why they’re talking him up as a feature back. Jordan Todman will probably be the primary backup. The 2011 6^th round pick has 79 career carries, 76 of which were last season. He averaged 3.37 YPC last season, rushing for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries. In his career, he averages 3.34 YPC, rushing for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns on 79 carries. Last season, in the only season in his career in which he saw significant action, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked running back out of 55 eligible, despite such limited playing time. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. He’s not a very good backup. 7^th round rookie Storm Johnson could also see action this season. That’s how bad things are.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Gerhart generally ran behind a good offensive line in Minnesota, but that won’t be the case in Jacksonville. They graded out as easily Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked run blocking team last season, a big part of the reason why they averaged 3.33 YPC last season. They were better in pass protection, but still not great, grading out 19^th among teams in that aspect. Things don’t figure to be much better this season. The Jaguars signed Zane Beadles this off-season, but they overpaid the ex-Bronco on a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal with 13 million guaranteed.

The 6 million dollars in annual value on that deal is the 10^th highest in the NFL among guards. He’s not a top-10 guard. Beadles has been a starter since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010, but he’s been massively inconsistent. As a rookie in 2010, he was very solid as a guard, grading out 22^nd among guards on 523 snaps played, but struggled mightily as a tackle. In 2012, he had his best season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked guard. However, in 2011 he was 73rd out of 78 eligible and in 2013 he was 49^th out of 81 eligible. All in all, he’s about an average starting guard.

He’ll be an upgrade over Will Rackley, who was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard in 2011 and 3rd worst ranked guard in 2013 (with a season he missed with injury in between). However, he was still overpaid. Meanwhile, they downgraded the right guard position, cutting decent starting veteran Uche Nwaneri and replacing him with 3^rd round rookie Brandon Linder. Linder will be forced into the starting lineup as a rookie, which just shows you how little talent they have, and he should struggle.

The Jaguars also have a downgrade at the center position, with long-time center Brad Meester retiring. Meester struggled in his final year in the league, grading out 29^th out of 35 eligible centers, but replacement Mike Brewster could still easily be worse. Brewster was an undrafted free agent in 2012 and has struggled mightily in 2 years in the league, primarily at left guard. Brewster was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked guard in 2012, despite only playing 556 snaps. He then struggled this season on 230 snaps, again primarily playing left guard, but also playing some right guard. He could be better in his 3^rd year in the league back at his collegiate position of center, but he’s also a former undrafted free agent who has yet to show that he should have been drafted, so it’s definitely not an ideal situation.

The most promising player on the offensive line for the Jaguars is left tackle Luke Joeckel, who was the 2^nd overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Joeckel struggled mightily as a rookie on 280 snaps at right tackle before going down with a season ending leg injury. He could easily be better in his 2^nd year, at his natural position on the blindside, but the blindside is harder than right tackle, where he struggled, he’s coming off of a serious injury, and, while he went 2^nd overall, he did so in arguably the weakest draft class of the past 15 or so years. We’ll see how he does in his 2^nd year in the league.

At right tackle, it’ll either be Austin Pasztor or Cameron Bradfield, who manned the tackle positions for the Jaguars most of last season with Joeckel out. Both of them struggled. Pasztor is probably the better of the two, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 63^rd ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. That doesn’t sound good, but it’s better when you consider that Bradfield graded out 73^rd. Pasztor, a 2012 undrafted free agent, is unproven, but he’s also not quite the proven failure that Bradfield is. He was alright on 219 snaps at right guard as a rookie. Bradfield, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2011 and has struggled mightily in both seasons he’s been a starter in the NFL. I already mentioned how bad he was last season and he graded out 62^nd out of 80 eligible as a starter in 2012. Any way you look at it, it’s an awful offensive line.

Grade: C-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

By default, things are probably best in the receiving corps. The Jaguars drafted Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the 2^nd round of the 2014 NFL Draft and both should have significant roles as rookies, which is a concern considering that rookie wide receivers tend to struggle. The reason they were drafted is because the Jaguars are not expecting suspended wide receiver Justin Blackmon to play at all this season. Blackmon barely played last season, playing 253 snaps, but the Jaguars will still miss getting anything from him.

Blackmon was pretty impressive when he was on the field last season, catching 29 of 46 targets (63.0%) for 415 yards and a touchdown on 161 routes run, an average of 2.58 yards per route run that was 4^th in the NFL. He did all of that despite horrible quarterback play. Lee and Robinson should be upgrades over Ace Sanders and Mike Brown, who were 2^nd and 3^rd on the team in snaps played by a wide receiver last season, grading out 88^th and 104^th respectively out of 111 eligible wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. However, both will probably struggle as rookies and they’ll miss Blackmon.

With Blackmon likely out for the season, Cecil Shorts will remain as the #1 receiver. Shorts showed potential in 2012, when he caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns on 423 routes run, an impressive average of 2.31 yards per route run, especially when you consider the Jaguars’ quarterback play. The 2011 4^th round pick seemed poised for a breakout year in 2013, in his 3^rd year in the league, in a bigger role. However, Shorts didn’t live up to expectations and showed himself to pretty much just be a complementary receiver who needs someone opposite him to take the pressure off of him. He clearly doesn’t have that right now.

Shorts caught 66 passes on 117 targets (56.4%) for 777 yards and 3 touchdowns on 472 routes run in 2013, an average of 1.65 yards per route run, grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus. He’s not bad receiver and he’s honestly probably their best offensive player, but that’s not saying much. He’s not the #1 coverage changing wide receiver they need. He’s also never played more than 14 games in a season in the 3 seasons he’s been in the league, showing a tendency to get injured.

The only player who gives Shorts competition for the top offensive player on the Jaguars (assuming Joeckel doesn’t have a massive breakout season) is tight end Marcedes Lewis. Lewis isn’t a fantastic pass catcher, but he’s averaged 1.58 yards per route run since 2009, including 1.37 yards per route run last season. That’s pretty impressive considering what he’s had to deal with at quarterback. His raw pass catching totals don’t seem that good (206 catches for 2577 yards and 20 touchdowns since 2009 in 73 games), but that’s because the way the Jaguars utilize his skill set limits his pass catching production (in addition to poor quarterback play).

The 6-6 261 pounder is a very good run and pass blocker. As a result, he’s very often asked to stay in and pass block, which limits his pass catching production. Since 2009, he has 1 pass block snap for every 3.53 routes he runs, which means he pass blocks more often than almost any tight end. The Jaguars also very rarely line him up off the line, because he’s so good as a blocker. That also limits his pass catching production. Since 2009, only 31.7% of his routes run have come on the slot, which means he lines up off line as infrequently as almost any tight end in the game.

He’s graded out above average every season since 2009 and he was a top-10 tight end in every season from 2009-2012, maxing out at #2 overall in 2010. Much of that is run blocking grade, which isn’t the most valuable part of a tight end’s job, but he graded out above average as a pass catcher in 3 of those 4 seasons. He didn’t do so last season and he only graded out slightly above average overall and also missed 5 games with injury. That’s a concern as he heads into his age 30 season. However, he should remain an asset for them as long as he stays on the field and the 2006 1^st round pick only missed a combined 3 games from 2006-2012. Clay Harbor, meanwhile, remains as the #2 tight end. He struggled as a pass catcher and a run blocker on 363 snaps last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 54^th ranked tight end out of 64 eligible. Overall, it’s a pretty talentless offense.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

Things aren’t much better on defense, though this is probably their better unit. They don’t have a ton of talent, but head coach Gus Bradley is a smart defensive mind, coming over from the Seahawks, where he was defensive coordinator. Bradley coached up several players last season. Going into his 2^nd year as a head coach, Bradley is reunited with Chris Clemons and Red Bryant, two defensive ends who he had when he had a lot of success in Seattle. The issue is that both are aging right now and both are not the players they once were. Both were cut by the Seahawks for cap purposes this off-season.

Clemons was a top-12 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2012 with the Seahawks. He graded out below average as a run stopper in all 3 seasons, but he excelled as a pass rusher, grading out 4^th, 6^th, and 4^th in pure pass rush grade in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively. However, Clemons tore his ACL in the 2012 post-season and was a shell of his former self in 2013. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 43^rd ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 52 eligible on 585 snaps. He still struggled as a run stopper and he wasn’t nearly as good rushing the passer, though he did great out slightly above average in that aspect. He’ll be about 20 months removed from that torn ACL for week 1 so he could be better, but he’s also going into his age 33 season, so there’s a very good chance that he’ll never close to being the same player he once was.

Red Bryant, meanwhile, is going into his age 30 season. He’s actually coming off of a solid season in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus, grading out above average as a run stopper and below average as a pass rusher. The 6-5 321 pounder is a pure base defensive end, playing 488 snaps last season. At his best, he’s a strong run stuffer and a poor pass rusher, which is what he was last season. He was a similar player in 2010, before missing half the year with injury, and then he struggled mightily in both 2011 and 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 60^th 4-3 defensive end out of 62 eligible in 2012 and 56^th out of 67 eligible in 2011. Bryant isn’t as old as Clemons, but he’s aging and he never was as good or as big of a part of Gus Bradley’s success in Seattle as Clemons was.

With Bryant and Clemons aging and both essentially being situational players anyway (Bryant as a base defensive end, Clemons as a sub package edge rusher), the Jaguars are going to need a 3^rd defensive end to play a significant role. They may also need a 4^th to play a significant role. That 3^rd defensive end will be Andre Branch, who played 604 snaps in this role last season. He graded out below average, ranking 32^nd among 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends last season. That’s not great, but it’s better than what he did as a rookie, when he ranked 50^th out of 62 eligible on 421 snaps. The 6-4 259 pounder is better against the run than as a pass rusher, but he’s not great in either aspect. We’ll see what he does in his 3^rd year in the league.

That 4^th defensive end will probably be Tyson Alualu and he probably won’t have a big role. Alualu had a big role last season, playing 754 snaps, but he was awful, grading out 47^th out of 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, struggling as both a run stopper and especially as a pass rusher. Red Bryant is essentially his direct replacement and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade. Alualu started his career at 4-3 defensive tackle, getting drafted 10^th overall in 2010, but he’s been a massive bust and the 6-2 294 pounder was moved to defensive end last season. He played 3-4 defensive end in college.

He’s graded out significantly below average in every year he’s been in the league, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66^th ranked defensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2010, their worst defensive tackle in 2011, and their 2^nd worst defensive tackle in 2012. The position change didn’t help him and it’s good news for the Jaguars that he won’t play much this season. Owed a 2.37 million dollar salary in his contract year, Alualu is also squarely on the roster bubble.

Things aren’t much better at defensive tackle. Sen’Derrick Marks got a big contract this off-season, re-signing with the Jaguars for 22 million over 4 seasons with 8 million guaranteed. That deal doesn’t make a lot of sense. Marks is coming off of the best season of his career, particularly as a pass rusher as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked defensive tackle in terms of pass rush grade. However, he still graded out below average because he was horrific against the run, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th worst ranked defensive tackle against the run.

He definitely was better last season than he normally is, largely thanks to the tutelage of Gus Bradley, but he’s still not a great player. He was horrible before last season. The 2009 2^nd round pick struggled mightily as a rookie on 200 snaps. He then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 64^th ranked defensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2010, 78^th ranked defensive tackle out of 88 eligible in 2011, and 75^th out of 85 eligible in 2012. There’s a reason all he could get was a one year deal worth 1.5 million last off-season. He could easily regress a little bit this season and he wasn’t that great last year anyway.

Sadly, Marks is their best defensive tackle. Roy Miller is going to be the other starter for a 2^nd straight season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 64^th ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013. The 2009 3^rd round pick has graded out significantly below average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league. He was Pro Football Focus 73^rd ranked defensive tackle out of 87 eligible in 2009, their 3^rd worst defensive tackle in 2010, and their 82^nd ranked defensive tackle out of 88 eligible in 2011. His best season in the league was 2012, when he graded out 64^th out of 85 eligible. That’s sad.

What’s even sadder is that he isn’t even the Jaguars’ worst defensive tackle. In the weirdest move of the off-season, the Jaguars gave Ziggy Hood, a 2009 1^st round pick mega-bust former of the Steelers, a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal with 5.5 million guaranteed. He spent 5 seasons in Pittsburgh as a 3-4 defensive end and graded out as a bottom-4 player at his position in each of the last 4 seasons. The only reason he was even remotely good was his rookie year, when he only played 225 snaps and graded out about average. A switch back to his collegiate position of 4-3 defensive tackle could help him, but I expect him to still struggle mightily in a rotational role. This might be the worst defensive line in the NFL.

Grade: C-

Linebackers

Paul Posluszny had 162 total tackles last season, which was 2^nd in the NFL, but that’s misleading. Think about it. Someone had to stop plays for the Jaguars last season. They were bad, but they weren’t letting the other team score on every single play, so someone had to get a bunch of tackles. That doesn’t necessarily mean that player was great. Posluszny wasn’t bad, but he was still Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season. The Jaguars are keeping him at a 6.45 million dollar salary for 2014 because they have a ton of cap space and need his veteran leadership.

He’s been better in the past, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked middle linebacker in 2011 and their 9^th ranked middle linebacker in 2009, but he’s graded out below average in 3 of his last 4 seasons and each of his last 2 seasons. In 2012, he was even worse, grading out 47^th out of 53 eligible middle linebackers. Now going into his age 30 season, Posluszny will be an average starter at best this season, even if he does, once again, get a bunch of tackles.

Geno Hayes will probably be the other every down linebacker, a role he served in last season, grading out 28^th out of 35 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers. He was once an above average starting outside linebacker in Tampa Bay, grading out well above average in his first 2 seasons as a starter in 2009 and 2010, but he graded out 40^th out of 45 eligible at his position in 2011 and then only played 141 snaps in 2012 with the Bears. Those days could easily be behind him now and he should have another season of being a below average starter on the outside.

The other outside linebacker role will probably be just a two-down role and there’s a three way competition for the job right now. Chris Smith and Telvin Smith are a pair of 5^th round rookies, while Dekoda Watson is a relative veteran who appears to be the favorite right now. Watson, a 2010 7^th round pick, has flashed in his career, grading out above average in 3 out of 4 seasons in the league, though he’s done it as a reserve on only a combined 742 snaps. He should be qualified for two-down work, provided he wins the starting job. It would be his first season as a starter in his career.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The secondary was the Jaguars’ best defensive unit last season (and maybe their best unit on either side of the ball). That could continue to be the case, but they do have some guys coming off of career years that could regress. However, they could continue to play well thanks to the tutelage of Gus Bradley and they have a pair of 2^nd year safeties who could be better this season. Those two safeties are Jonathan Cyprien and Josh Evans, who went in the 2^nd round and 6^th round respectively in 2013.

They graded out 84^th and 76^th out of 86 eligible safeties on Pro Football Focus last season. Evans was the better player last season, but Cyprien definitely has more long-term upside, which is why he went in the 2^nd round. Evans, meanwhile, was benched for Winston Guy down the stretch and will need to compete to win his starting job back. A foot injury has him behind the 8-ball at the moment. He fell to the 6^th round so it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into a starter. Winston Guy, a 2012 6^th round pick, played 8 snaps as a rookie with the Seahawks and then reunited with Gus Bradley in Jacksonville last season. He struggled on 363 snaps, grading out 73^rd out of 86 eligible safeties despite the limited action. He won’t be much better than Evans so it’s really a toss-up who wins this job.

Cyprien, meanwhile, played pretty well in the 2^nd half of last season. In the Jaguars’ first 9 games of the season, he graded out significantly below average in 8 of them and below average in all 9. In their final 7 games, he graded out above average in 4 games and significantly above average in 3 games. He missed 1 game with injury and graded out below average in 2 games and significantly below average in 1. The 33^rd pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Cyprien could carry over that strong finish into his 2^nd year in the league this year.

Things were much better at cornerback, though they might not be as good this season as two players had easily the best years of their career last season and could regress. Alan Ball led Jaguar cornerbacks with 1020 snaps played and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked cornerback. However, the hybrid cornerback/safety had graded out below average in 5 of the 6 previous years he had been in the league prior to last year, since being drafted in the 7^th round in 2007.

The only season he had graded out above average prior to last year was 2009, when he played just 303 snaps and he played a combined 598 snaps in 2011-2012. The only other season he was ever a starter was 2010, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 78^th ranked safety out of 85 eligible. He could have another strong year this year and Gus Bradley seems to have gotten the most out of the long, lanky 6-1 168 pounder (which is Bradley’s type of cornerback), but he could just as easily regress.

Will Blackmon will continue to start at cornerback opposite Ball. He also had the best year of his career last season, grading out 22^nd on Pro Football Focus among cornerbacks, tied with teammate Alan Ball. However, much of that was run grade as he graded out slightly below average in coverage, but ranked 2^nd against the run. Run play is important for a cornerback, but it’s not nearly as important as coverage so he wasn’t quite as good as his rank suggested. On top of that, he’s the definition of a one year wonder. He played a combined 31 snaps from 2009-2012. Like Ball, he could have another solid year under Gus Bradley’s tutelage and he has the length that Bradley works well with at cornerback (6-0 199), but he could just as easily regress this season.

2013 3^rd round pick Dwayne Gratz will start the season as the 3^rd cornerback again, but he could easily have a bigger role than the 494 snaps he played last season if either Ball or Blackmon struggles. He graded out above average last season. He graded out slightly below average in coverage, but he played the run well and he still showed a lot of potential. He has some breakout potential going into his 2^nd year in the league. Their secondary is more talented than the rest of their defense, but there are still issues here.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jaguars may have won 4 games last season, but they were even worse than their 4-12 record would have suggested and they were the worst team in the NFL. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

When you look at this roster, it’s easy to see why they struggled. They were grossly mismanaged in the Gene Smith era and they’re only going into the 2^nd year of their new front office and it’s going to take time to rebuild. I don’t really see how they are going to be significantly better this season. They didn’t have an unsustainably poor turnover margin or fumble recovery rate last season. They didn’t have an enormous amount of injuries last season. They didn’t have a hard schedule last season. They didn’t have bad luck and lose a lot of close games.

They didn’t add a lot of talent this off-season. They signed Toby Gerhart, a backup from Minnesota, to be their starting running back. They overpaid for Zane Beadles and Ziggy Hood for the offensive and defensive lines. They signed a pair of aging ex-Seahawk defensive linemen in Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. They drafted a pair of wide receivers in the 2^nd round, but rookie wide receivers tend to struggle and they’ll probably be without suspended wide receiver Justin Blackmon for the entire season. I don’t see anyone on the team who is in the top-200 players in the NFL.

They used the 3^rd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft on Blake Bortles. He may be their long-term savior, but the Jaguars are wisely going to let him develop on the bench as a rookie so he won’t contribute much, leaving Chad Henne to quarterback an awful supporting cast. This has all the makings of another horrible season this year, possibly even worse than last season in terms of win total. I think this is easily the least talented team in the NFL. I’ll have an official win total after I do every team’s preview.

Prediction: 2-14 4th in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans 2014 NFL Season Preview

July 2, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Titans were the definition of nondescript last season in every facet of the game. They moved the chains at a 71.66% rate, 17^th in the NFL, while their opponents moved the chains at a 71.71% rate, 19^th in the NFL. Their -0.05% rate of moving the chains differential was not only the closest rate to zero in the NFL, it also ranked 16^th in the NFL, right in the middle of the league. They went 7-9, but probably deserved to go 8-8, though that obviously wouldn’t have made a difference in their efforts to make the playoffs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had to start 9 games and play in 11 in the absence of injured quarterback Jake Locker. Fitzpatrick arguably had the best season of his career last year. He had graded out below average on Pro Football Focus every season since 2008 prior to last year (he didn’t play in 2007), including 34th out of 37 eligible in 2008 and 35th out of 38 eligible in 2012. However, he graded out middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus last season (21st out of 42 eligible). He completed 62.0% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA (both career highs), 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and also rushed for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns on 43 carries (5.23 YPA).

Fitzpatrick is now gone, with the Titans putting all their stock in Jake Locker staying healthy this season. Locker has had serious issues staying healthy in his career so the Titans could easily regret letting Fitzpatrick go if either Charlie Whitehurst (64.6 QB rating on 155 career attempts since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2006) or Zach Mettenberger (6^th round rookie) has to make starts in Locker’s absence. At the same time, if Locker stays healthy, he should be an upgrade at quarterback for the Titans.

Injuries have sidetracked the former 8^th overall pick’s career and now he heads into the contract year of his rookie deal without an extension or any expectation of getting one until he proves himself. He’s played in just 23 games in 3 seasons, working as a backup to veteran Matt Hasselbeck as a rookie and then missing a combined 14 games over the past 2 seasons with a variety of injuries. When on the field, he’s definitely flashed, completing 57.2% of his passes for 7.06 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions on 563 career attempts, essentially a season’s worth. He’s also rushed for 502 yards and 4 touchdowns on 73 attempts (6.88 YPC).

He was on his way to the best season of his career last year, as he completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.86 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while rushing for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24 carries (6.46 YPC). He was Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible. The Titans went 4-2 in games he played more than 50% of snaps in and they probably would have had a better record on the season if he had stayed healthy.

He suffered a hip injury after 4 starts, wasn’t the same upon his return, and then suffered a season ending foot injury 3 starts after his return from the first injury. In 2012, it was his shoulder. He seems really brittle. It’s obviously a make or break year for him as he goes into his contract year, with a new regime than the one who drafted him now in power. It helps that his new head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, has a strong history with quarterbacks, though he’s always struggled to develop young quarterbacks.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Titans probably would have had a better record last season if Locker had stayed healthy. The framework was in place for the team to be an above average team, even if only a slightly above average team, with slightly improved quarterback play. The issue is the Titans had one of the most head-scratching off-seasons of any team in the league and are a noticeably worse team now around the quarterback than they were last season. These head scratching decisions were most noticeable on the offensive line.

The Titans cut long-time starting right tackle David Stewart, which wasn’t a bad idea, even though he can probably still play (he’s still available on the open market right now, but plenty of veterans available late into the off-season made impacts last season). He was still a decent starter last season, grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, but he’s going into his age 33 season, coming off of a couple of injury plagued seasons, and the Titans saved about 6 million on the cap by cutting him.

The biggest issue is that instead of using the freed up cap space to re-sign talented cornerback Alterraun Verner (who signed with Tampa Bay on a very reasonable 4-year, 26.5 million dollar deal), they used it to sign Michael Oher from Baltimore to a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal with 9.35 million guaranteed. Oher will be a significant downgrade over Stewart. That was a ridiculous deal. I thought Oher would have to settle for a one-year prove it deal on the open market.

That’s because Oher had the worst year of his 5-year career last year, as the 2009 1st round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible on the right side in Baltimore. Oher has actually regressed in almost every season as a pro. He had a strong rookie year, grading out 15th at his position, but then went 40th, 38th, 57th, and then, of course, 68th last season. He could be a little better than he was last season, but there are no guarantees and he could still struggle either way.

After that, the Titans, for some reason, used the 11^th pick in the draft on another offensive tackle instead of adding a replacement for Verner at cornerback, like Kyle Fuller (who went 3 picks later to Chicago). That offensive tackle was Taylor Lewan. That pick makes some sense in that Michael Roos at left tackle is going into an age 32 contract year and it’s possible that Lewan was just far and away the best prospect on their board available at that point, but it still doesn’t change the fact that they used the 11^th overall pick on someone who probably won’t play as a rookie and that they decided to sign Oher instead of re-signing Verner. Lewan won’t help them this season.

Theoretically, Lewan can push Oher for the starting job this season. He’s a better football player after all, even as a rookie. That would be the right move if we assume that insane Oher deal is a sunk cost at this point, but they’re likely going to be way too proud to admit their mistake on that one this soon, after guaranteeing him 9.35 million. The worst part of that deal is that the guaranteed money includes almost all of his 2015 salary as well so he’s probably locked in as a starter for at least two years.

That means that Lewan will probably get his chance to start next season at left tackle, which means that this is probably Michael Roos’ last year in Tennessee. That’s a shame, even if he is going into his age 32 season, and it makes their offensive moves at offensive tackle even more confusing. Roos has been a quietly dominant left tackle and a huge asset for the Titans since they drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2005.

He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season since 2007, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked offensive tackle in 2012 (he was also 4^th in 2008). He graded out 16^th last season and has been a top-16 offensive tackle in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Joe Thomas, Andrew Whitworth, and Eugene Monroe can also say. He’s also missed just 1 start since 2007. It’s a shame that he’ll probably be gone next season, but it a good thing that the Titans didn’t cut him going into this season to put Lewan at left tackle and save 6.625 million in cash and cap space. This was actually reportedly discussed as an idea by a Titans team that seems to have serious issues with personnel decisions.

Things are much more stable at guard, where Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre will return at right and left guard respectively, after both joined the team last off-season. The Titans used big resources on both, drafting Warmack with the 8^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and giving Andy Levitre a 6-year, 46.8 million dollar deal. Only one of those investments worked out in their first year with the team as Chance Warmack struggled as a rookie, grading out below average and ranking as Pro Football Focus’ 46^th guard out of 81 eligible. He could easily be better in his 2^nd year in the league though and he was seen as a one in a decade type guard prospect by many coming out.

Levitre, meanwhile, had a “down” year in his first year with the team, but he was still a huge asset, grading out 13^th at his position. The only reason last year was a “down” year for him is because he graded out 6^th at his position in 2011 and 9^th at his position in 2012. Even still, only Evan Mathis and Josh Sitton also have graded out in the top-13 in each of the last 3 seasons among guards. The 2009 2^nd round pick has made all 80 starts in 5 years in the league and graded out above average in all 5 seasons. He should have another strong year this year.

The center position is an issue for the Titans. They, for some reason, cut Fernando Velasco in final cuts last year even though he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked center in 2012. Velasco turned out to not be as good in 2013 as he was in 2012, playing as an injury replacement in Pittsburgh, but he was still better than what the Titans had at center last year. Veteran Robert Turner started the first 6 games of the season before being benched for poor performance. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked center despite only playing 401 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out lower.

4^th round rookie Brian Schwenke then took over as the starter from there on out and wasn’t much better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th worst ranked center on 573 snaps. Turner is gone and remains an unsigned free agent right now so the starting job is all Schwenke’s. They don’t have another player on the roster who has ever played a snap at center. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league and his first full season as a starter, but there are no guarantees with a former mid-round pick like him. Center is an obvious position of weakness. The Titans have made their offensive line worse over the past calendar year, but there’s still talent here, particularly at left tackle and left guard.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Titans also attempted to revamp the running back position this off-season, though they did a better job with that than they did on the offensive line. Chris Johnson was cut, which needed to be done because he was a declining player and clearly not worth his salary. He’s good for a few highlight reel plays, but he won’t he missed much. He averaged just 3.86 yards per carry last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 48^th ranked running back out of 55 eligible.

The Titans will replace him with Bishop Sankey, who was drafted in the 2^nd round out of Washington. Sankey doesn’t have ideal size at 5-9 209, but he ran a 4.49 40 and he runs harder than his size. He showed the ability to carry the load at Washington, with 677 touches over his final 2 seasons combined, but he doesn’t even turn 22 until September so his legs should be pretty fresh. He has three down ability and some considered him the top running back in the draft class. The Titans obviously did, making him the first running back off the board, 53^rd overall, the latest the first running back has ever come off the board (breaking the record set in 2013).

Sankey should get the opportunity to be the feature back immediately in Tennessee because they don’t have much else at the running back position. Shonn Greene, who played 154 snaps and had 77 carries last season, remains in that backup role. It was a weird move when the Titans gave him a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal last off-season because he’s only a backup caliber running back. He’s averaged just 4.14 YPC on 899 career carries and offers nothing on passing downs, with just 71 catches in 72 career games. He’s not going to get any better going into his age 29 season.

Greene’s roster spot shouldn’t be safe at a non-guaranteed 2.3 million dollar salary. He might be kept only because their other big back option is Jackie Battle, who is going into his age 31 season with 321 career carries and a career 3.64 YPC. The Titans will have to be awfully reliant on a rookie at running back this year, though it’s not worse than last season, when they were way too reliant on a clearly declining Chris Johnson.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Part of the reason why Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to have the best statistical year of his career last year and why Locker was able to have success as well was solid play in their receiving corps (in addition to their offensive line). The biggest difference between 2012 and 2013 in the receiving corps was a breakout season from 2012 1^st round pick Kendall Wright in his 2^nd year in the league. Wright only averaged 11.5 yards per reception and only scored twice and in his career he only averages 10.8 yards per reception and only has 6 touchdowns, but he gobbles up underneath targets and dominates that part of the field.

Wright caught 94 passes on 134 targets (70.1%) and totaled 1079 yards on 539 routes run, an average of 2.00 yards per route run, 21^st among eligible wide receivers. He also had more than half of his yardage after the catch, as he totaled 583 yards after the catch and averaged 6.2 yards per catch after the catch. That was 10^th at his position among eligible wide receivers. He did drop 8 passes, but that’s a relatively low drop rate when you consider how many passes he caught and he also broke 19 tackles, which was 2^nd most at his position. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18^th ranked wide receiver and he could easily be better in his 3^rd year in the league, a common breakout year for wide receivers. He can become a more complete receiver by catching more passes downfield.

On top of that, Nate Washington continued his solid play, catching 58 passes for 919 yards and 3 touchdowns on 558 routes run, an average of 1.65 yards per route run. Over the past 3 seasons, Washington has caught 178 passes for 2688 yards and 14 touchdowns and averaged 1.62 yards per route run. Last season, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked wide receiver and he’s graded out above average in 2 of the past 3 seasons. He’s more of a deep threat than Wright, averaging 15.2 yards per catch in his career and 15.8 yards per catch last season, but there’s some concern as he goes into his age 31 season. Both Wright and Washington are strong run blockers, which boosted their ranks on Pro Football Focus, but they still graded out 22^nd and 23^rd respectively in pass catching grade.

Wright spent 68.5% of his snaps on the slot last season, part of the reason why he rarely scored and averaged so few yards per catch. He could see slightly fewer snaps there this season though as slot specialist Dexter McCluster comes over from Kansas City. McCluster will not be the true slot receiver he was in Kansas City, but he’ll play there some, in addition to lining up as a passing down running back, and also possibly returning kickoffs and punts. He’ll play the Danny Woodhead role in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, with Bishop Sankey playing the Ryan Mathews role.

McCluster caught 53 passes for 511 yards and 2 touchdowns last season and more than half of his yards per reception (5.1 per catch) came after the catch. He did that on 429 routes run (1.19 yards per route run), graded out below average, and ran 79.5% of his routes from the slot. McCluster, a 2010 2nd round pick, has 172 career catches for 1500 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has 152 carries for 662 yards (4.36 YPC) and a touchdown.

He’s also returned 79 punts for 959 yards and 3 touchdowns and 52 kickoffs for 1087 yards. He’s not as good as Woodhead, grading out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, but he graded out above average in the one season he spent primarily as a passing down back and he’ll provide versatility on offense. He’s probably not worth the 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal they gave him though, as his biggest impact will probably be on special teams.

One player the Titans are hoping can step up this season is Justin Hunter. If Hunter, a 2013 2^nd round pick, were to lock down one of the top-3 wide receiver jobs, they could run with Washington and Hunter outside in 3-wide sets and line Wright up on the slot, with McCluster fitting in as an obvious passing situation back and 4^th wide receiver. Hunter played 340 snaps as a rookie and was pretty ordinary. He caught 18 passes for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns on 212 routes run, an average of 1.67 yards per route run. That’s a solid average, though he only caught 18 of 41 targets (43.9%) and had 5 drops. Rookie receivers don’t usually do much anyway though and Hunter was regarded as really raw coming out of the University of Tennessee. Going only into his age 23 season, the height, weight, speed freak (6-4, 196, 4.44 40) could become a contributor in 3-wide receiver sets.

The Titans’ receiving corps as a whole should become more efficient with Kenny Britt gone. Britt still has potential and could show that potential this season in St. Louis, but he was awful in Tennessee last season and his “loss” will be addition by subtraction. Britt was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked wide receiver, despite playing just 305 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. He only caught a third of his 33 targets, with 11 catches for 96 yards and he dropped 7 passes. He averaged just 0.48 yards per route run on 201 routes run. He was awful.

The Titans don’t get much pass catching production from their tight ends, which is why Wright was so important last season catching underneath targets. The Titans signed Delanie Walker from the 49ers on a 4-year, 17.5 million dollar deal last off-season, hoping that Walker, whose had never caught 30 passes in a season before last year, would become a better receiver with more playing time in Tennessee as the starting tight end. He was a backup to Vernon Davis in San Francisco.

Walker was more productive, catching 60 passes for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 1.19 yards per route run and grading out below average as a pass catcher. He wasn’t as bad as he was in 2012, when he dropped 9 passes, as opposed to 21 catches, but he’s never been a good pass catcher. Fortunately, he’s a strong run blocker, which makes up for it. He’s graded out above average as a run blocker in each of his last 7 seasons in the league and below average as a pass catcher in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Going into his age 30 season, that’s unlikely to change.

Neither Craig Stevens nor Taylor Thompson is much of a pass catcher either as both graded out above average as a run blocker and below average as a pass blocker last season. This also isn’t anything new for either of them. Stevens has graded out below average as a pass catcher and above average as a run blocker in 5 of the 6 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2008. Meanwhile, Thompson has graded out below average as a pass catcher and above average as a run blocker in both seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 5^th round in 2012. It’s still an above average pass catching group, but the tight end position isn’t great in that aspect.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

I already mentioned some of the ways the Titans have a weaker supporting cast than last season. They replaced David Stewart with Michael Oher, lost Alterraun Verner, and then used the 11^th overall pick on a backup for Oher. The other thing they did to weaken themselves is they switched defensive schemes from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Ray Horton comes over as the new defensive coordinator. He has a strong history so this isn’t a knock on him, but they’re converting to a system that their two best front 7 players don’t really fit.

Casey was probably their best defensive player last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked defensive tackle. He was 8^th in 2012 and 16^th as a 3^rd round rookie in 2011. Going into his 4^th season in the league, only his age 25 season, Casey is a supremely talented young defensively lineman, but he’s a questionable fit for a 3-4 at 6-1 290. He’ll play 3-4 defensive end, where he’s not as natural or experienced as he is at defensive tackle and he could struggle by his standards as a result. Casey also lost 15 pounds, going from 305 to 290, for this new role, which could be risky.

The Titans had a lot of depth on the defensive line in terms of big players last season, with guys like Ropati Pitotua, Sammie Lee Hill, Karl Klug, and Mike Martin all playing rotational roles. Those 4 are all still with the team and will continue in rotational roles on the Titans’ new 3-man defensive line. The 6-4 329 pound Hill is most likely to be their nose tackle this season. The 2009 4^th round pick has graded out above average in each of the last 4 seasons, though he’s maxed out at 437 snaps. His best season was 2010, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15^th ranked defensive tackle on just 367 snaps. He’s never played in a 3-4 as a professional, but he should be fine in the middle.

Pitotua, meanwhile, will start as the other 3-4 defensive end. The 6-8 290 pounder played 585 snaps as a base 4-3 defensive end last season in kind of a Red Bryant role. He played the run well, but he struggled mightily as a pass rusher and graded out slightly below average overall. He has experience as a 3-4 defensive end from his time in Kansas City prior to last season. However, he was awful in Kansas City grading out below average every season he was there. The season he had the biggest role was in 2012, when he played 505 snaps, and, not coincidentally, that was the season he struggled the most, grading out 29^th out of 34 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. He’s never graded out above average and should struggle again this season as a starter.

Fortunately, the Titans do have players to rotate with him, as I mentioned above. Both Karl Klug and Mike Martin have shown well as reserves throughout their careers. Klug has graded out above average in 3 seasons in the league at defensive tackle on a combined 1103 snaps, with his best season coming in 2013, when he graded out 14^th among defensive tackles despite playing just 330 snaps. He especially excelled as a pass rusher, grading out 10^th in that aspect.

Martin, meanwhile, has graded out above average in both seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2012. He only played 237 snaps this past season, but played 435 snaps as a rookie and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked defensive tackle, with no one grading out higher and playing fewer snaps. Neither has much 3-4 experience and neither is an ideal fit for the system, with Martin coming in at 6-1 306 and Klug coming in at 6-3 275, but both should still be solid contributors in rotational roles. There’s a lot of talent on the defensive line, but the scheme change might be trying to fit round pegs into square holes.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Another player the scheme change could easily adversely affect is Derrick Morgan, who has been their best edge rusher over the past 2 seasons. Morgan took until his 3^rd year in the league to make an impact because the 2010 1^st round pick got hurt as a rookie and then struggled upon his return in his 2^nd year in the league, but he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 5^th and 11^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 2013 respectively, showing those first round abilities. He’s especially excelled as a pass rusher, while struggling against the run.

Morgan played at around 6-3 275 last season and has slimmed down to 6-3 260 to play 3-4 outside linebacker this season, a position he has very little, if any experience with. Dropping into coverage and rushing from a two-point stance are both very new for him. Between the position change and the weight loss needed for the position change, the Titans are taking a major chance tinkering with a proven player with Morgan, as they are also doing with Casey.

The scheme change won’t be bad for everyone though. Akeem Ayers has played a kind of tweener outside linebacker/defensive end position over the past 3 seasons since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011 and now will get to line up at a more natural position as a rush linebacker. He’s graded out above average as a 4-3 outside linebacker in each of the three seasons he’s been in the league. Last year was his best season as he was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker.

He’s been a strong pass rusher over the past two seasons, with a combined 8 sacks, 14 hits, and 34 hurries on a combined 339 pass rush snaps, a very impressive rate of 16.5%. Now he’ll get to rush the passer more often, which is obviously good for him, and drop into coverage less. He’s graded out below average in coverage in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, on a combined 875 coverage snaps. He could have a breakout year this season, perfect timing as he heads into his contract year.

The Titans added Shaun Phillips as a free agent to the 3-4 outside linebacker mix this off-season. He’ll provide depth behind Morgan and Ayers and experience as someone who has spent almost his entire career in a 3-4. The issue is he’s going into his age 33 season, which is why he was available for 4.8 million over 2 seasons this off-season. Shaun Phillips looked done after the 2013 season, going into his age 32 season after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013. He had to settle for a one year deal close to the veteran’s minimum with the Broncos, but he was able to rehab his value, grading out above average as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. That being said, he’s still no guarantee to continue being a positive contributor this year given his age.

The Titans will start Zach Brown and Wesley Woodyard inside at middle linebacker in their 3-4. Brown will convert from being a 4-3 outside linebacker. The 2012 2^nd round pick graded out slightly above average on 756 snaps as a rookie and then slightly below average on 771 snaps last season. He should continue being an average starter inside in his 3^rd year in the league. Woodyard, meanwhile, is a free agent acquisition coming over from Denver. He’ll be an obvious upgrade over Moise Fukou, who was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked middle linebacker last season.

Woodyard isn’t great though, even though he got a 4-year, 16 million dollar from the Titans this off-season. He’s coming off of a year in which he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus and got benched for the archaic Paris Lenon. He has experience at both 4-3 outside and 4-3 inside linebacker, but he’s graded out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons. He’s been a starter for the past 3 seasons and the only season he graded out above average was perhaps not coincidentally the only season he started at outside linebacker. The 6-0 227 pounder just might not be a natural middle linebacker and he could be an even worse fit in a 3-4. The Titans don’t have a lot of muscle inside at linebacker as Zach Brown is only 6-1 242.

Grade: B

Secondary

As I mentioned, Alterraun Verner is gone, signing with the Buccaneers. Verner has never been spectacular, maxing out 10th overall in 2011 (he graded out 13th last season). However, he’s made all 64 starts since being drafted in the 4th round in 2010 and he’s graded out in the top-25 on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, something only Joe Haden and Jason McCourty can also say at the inconsistent cornerback position. The common opinion is that Verner broke out last season, when he had a career high 5 interceptions, after a combined 6 interceptions in his first 3 seasons in the league, but that’s the danger with just looking at interception numbers.

The Titans have a few opinions in replacing him. Blidi Wreh-Wilson, a 2013 3^rd round pick who played 93 snaps as a rookie, could slot into the starting job. Coty Sensabaugh, who was the slot cornerback last season, could play outside in base packages and move inside in sub packages with Wreh-Wilson coming in, though he could be overmatched on the outside. Sensabaugh struggled on 319 snaps as a rookie in 2012, but graded out slightly above average on 509 snaps last season. Meanwhile, Tommie Campbell is a height/weight/speed guy (6-3 203 4.32 40) who is often anointed an off-season star. He could get a bigger role this season, after only playing 91 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league combined. He was a 2011 7^th round pick.

Luckily, the Titans still have Jason McCourty. As I mentioned, McCourty has also graded out in the top-25 in each of the past 4 seasons on Pro Football Focus. In fact, McCourty has graded out in the top-11 in each of the last 3 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who can say that, and the 2009 6^th round pick has graded out in the top-20 in each of the past 4 seasons, joining Joe Haden has the only other cornerback who has done that.

Part of that is that he’s been so good against the run and run stopping ability is easily a cornerback’s least important trait. He was Pro Football Focus’ 1^st ranked cornerback in 2011 and 2^nd ranked cornerback in 2012 in terms of run grade. Still, he was Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked cornerback in coverage grade in 2013 and 16^th ranked cornerback in coverage grade in 2010. He’s graded out above average in coverage in every season in the league. He’s a well-rounded cornerback and their best defensive back, though he isn’t as good as his overall grades would suggest he is.

Things are more stable at safety where Bernard Pollard and Michael Griffin return as starters. Both graded out above average last season, with the former grading out 21^st at his position and the latter grading out 14^th. Griffin is one of the most inconsistent players in the league and has graded out all over the map. The 2007 1^st round pick has had slightly above average years in 2007, 2010, well above average years in 2008 (9^th), 2011 (10^th), and 2013 (14^th), and below average years in 2009 (87^th out of 88) and 2012 (87^th out of 88). He could have anything from a fantastic season to a horrific season this year, though he probably averages out as an above average safety.

Pollard probably averages out as an above average safety as well, even though he’s been with 4 teams and been cut 3 times in his career. He’s graded out above average in 4 of the last 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons, with his best season coming in 2011, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked safety. He’s a solid box safety who is better against the run than in coverage. Overall, the secondary is weakened significantly by the loss of Verner, but there is some talent left.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Titans are weakened on the offensive line and in the secondary as compared to last season and they are trying to fit their two best front 7 players into new roles, which could backfire. They also should suffer more injuries than last season, even if Jake Locker stays healthy, after they had the 6^th fewest adjusted games lost last season. And if Locker doesn’t stay healthy, the downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Charlie Whitehurst/Zach Mettenberger at backup quarterback is significant.

They were an average team last season that was slightly better than their record. However, I don’t see them improving significantly this off-season, if they improve at all. They play in a weak division and should once again have an easy schedule this season (after they ranked 22^nd in strength of schedule in terms of DVOA last season). However, I don’t think even that legitimately puts them in the playoff race. I think they’re the 3^rd most talented team in the division. I’ll have an official win total when all the team previews are done.

Prediction: 6-10 3rd in AFC South

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Houston Texans 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 30, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Texans went from 12-4 in 2012 to 2-14 in 2013. What happened? Well, for one, the Texans weren’t as good as that 12-4 record suggested in 2012. They finished 11^th in DVOA in 2012, as they faced a schedule that was 26^th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. They went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had about 10.2 Pythagorean Wins. They also finished 3^rd in the NFL recovering 64.10% of fumbles, which led to their +12 turnover margin, which was powered by a +10 fumble margin.

In 2013, all of those unsustainable things that helped them in 2012 went the opposite way. Their schedule was 10^th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They had about 4.2 Pythagorean wins. On top of that they allowed 8 touchdowns off of returns, as opposed to 2 touchdowns off of returns for that. If we zeroed that out, they would have scored 262 points and allowed 372 points, which is a Pythagorean Expectation of 4.9 wins.

Speaking of turnovers, their turnover margin went to a league worst -20, as a result of a 44.44% fumble recovery rate, 26th in the NFL. They also picked off an absurd low amount of passes, 7, and they threw 22 interceptions. Turnover margins tend to be really inconsistent on a year-to-year and week-to-week basis though, as we’re talking about events that happen on such a small percentage of snaps. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0.

Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins. Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well.

The Texans’ defense did fine, except for their inability to force turnovers, which should turn around this season. They played well in spite of losing Brian Cushing to a significant injury for the 2^nd straight season. They ranked 11^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.40% rate. However, the offense was the issue, as they ranked 25^th, moving the chains at a 66.87% rate. They still finished 21^st in differential at -2.53%, which goes back to the whole the Texans were better than their record last season thing, but the offense was clearly the issue last season.

Matt Schaub’s performance last season was clearly the biggest difference between 2012 and 2013 for the Texans. Schaub had a QB rating in the 90s in every season from 2008-2012, but struggled mightily in 2013, completing 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 10 games, a QB rating of 73.0. He was Pro Football Focus’ 38th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible. The Texans’ other quarterbacks, TJ Yates and Case Keenum were not much better, as Texan quarterbacks combined to complete 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions on the season, a QB rating of 74.0.

Because of how bad they were last season, the Texans had the #1 pick in the draft and a golden opportunity to draft a quarterback #1 and potentially add a legitimate franchise quarterback into a strong supporting cast and get the team back to where it once was. Prior to this past draft, a quarterback was the #1 pick in 12 of the previous 16 drafts and only once did a team not draft a quarterback #1 and then draft a quarterback later, meaning only one team (the 2008 Miami Dolphins) felt they needed a quarterback and opted not to take one #1 overall.

The Texans made that two teams this year, taking Jadeveon Clowney #1 and waiting until the 4^th round to grab Tom Savage. Clowney won’t help their miserable offense and he won’t elevate this team back into Super Bowl contender realm, but it’s hard to argue against taking a supposedly once in a generation player over a quarterback class that no one really seemed sold on. Clowney will line up at a position of need defensively and, along with the return of Brian Cushing, make their solid defense even better. Their offense could still turn the ball over quite a bit, but their defense should force way more than the 11 takeaways they forced last season, which will even out their turnover margin.

Tom Savage will probably sit most of, if not all of his rookie year behind veteran addition Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick isn’t great. He’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus every season since 2008 (he didn’t play in 2007), including 34^th out of 37 eligible in 2008 and 35^th out of 38 eligible in 2012. However, he’s actually coming off arguably the best season of his career, as he graded out middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus (21^st out of 42 eligible). He completed 62.0% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA (both career highs), 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and also rushed for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns on 43 carries (5.23 YPA). He helped lead the Titans to a 71.66% rate of moving the chains (Jake Locker also started some games before he got hurt), which was 17^th in the NFL.

Fitzpatrick might not be as good as he was last season and he could really struggle. In fact, he could be one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this season. However, he should be an upgrade over what the Texans had at quarterback last season. He also has a fairly solid offensive supporting cast. The Texans are going to try to sneak into the playoffs on the strength of a strong running game and defense and limit Fitzpatrick’s impact on the game. They also have a new head coach, which should help them.

What should also help them out is their schedule as they play a last place schedule in arguably the worst division in football. They’ll get 4 games against the Titans and Jaguars. They’ll play Oakland and Buffalo. They also get the NFC East and the AFC North, so they’ll face the Browns, Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys. They play just 4 games against 2013 playoff teams (Colts twice, Bengals, and Eagles). That might not be enough for them to sneak into the playoffs, but they’ll be significantly improved in terms of win total from last season. Teams that have big decline in win total usually rebound by about half of that on average the following season. That would put the Texans at 7-9.

Grade: C

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Texans will be leaning on their running game, something they’ll have the luxury to do because their defense is strong. One thing that could help them is the return of Arian Foster from injury. Foster was off to a strong start to last season, rushing for 542 yards and a touchdown on 121 carries, an average of 4.48 YPC. He finished 23^rd among eligible running backs last season despite playing just 334 snaps, before going down with injury.

Foster was breaking down before the injury though, largely as a result of the 1115 touches he had in the previous 3 seasons. His YPC went down from 4.94 YPC in 2010 to 4.40 YPC in 2011 to 4.06 YPC in 2012. Even his yards per catch was low in 2012, as he averaged 5.42 yards per catch, showing a significant lack of burst and grading out below average on Pro Football Focus. Now coming off of a significant back injury and going into his age 28 season, he could continue breaking down. At the same time, he could also continue playing well, like he was last season, now that’s he’s had some time to rest and rebuild. We’ll see.

Ben Tate, Foster’s long-time backup, is now gone, signing as the starter in Cleveland. The Texans made a shrewd move signing Andre Brown from the Giants to be Foster’s backup and a fallback option if Foster gets hurt again. Brown has his share of issues. He’s bounced around the league and has a massive injury history so he’s played 21 games since being drafted in the 4th round in 2009 and has 246 touches going into his age 28 season. He also averaged just 3.54 yards per carry last season and has a career average of 4.09 yards per carry.

That being said, he’s strong on passing downs as both a protector and a pass catcher and he’s a bruising north-south back who always picks up some sort of yardage and who is great around the goal line. He doesn’t have much explosiveness, but he averaged 5.27 yards per carry in 2012. He’ll be solid as Foster’s backup. If both Brown and Foster go down with injury, either Dennis Johnson, a 2013 undrafted free agent who rushed for 183 yards and a touchdown on 49 carries as a rookie (3.73 YPC), or 6^th round rookie Alfred Blue will get a significant role.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Texans have a strong offensive line that helps both their running game and their passing game. Blindside protector Duane Brown is one of the better offensive tackles in the game. Last year he was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked offensive tackle in a “down” season. Brown was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked offensive tackle in 2012, 5^th ranked offensive tackle in 2011, and 19^th ranked offensive tackle in 2010. Even after last year, he’s still one of three offensive tackles (Andrew Whitworth and Joe Thomas) who has graded out in the top-22 in each of the past 4 seasons. The 2008 1^st round pick has graded out above average in every season since 2009, after a rough rookie year.

Chris Myers is also one of the top centers in the game. Myers has been a top-11 center on Pro Football Focus in every season since 2007, the only center in the game who can say that. He maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ 1^st ranked center in 2011 and graded out 6^th last season. He’s always been a better run blocker than pass protector, but he did struggle as a pass protector last season, grading out 30^th out of 35 eligible in that aspect, as opposed to 2^nd as a run blocker. He’s going into his age 33 season, but interior offensive linemen can often play well even in their mid-30s. His declining pass protection is a concern, but he should still have a solid season.

While Myers and Brown are established at their respective positions, the Texans also had a player break out last season. That player was right guard Brandon Brooks, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked guard last season, in his 2^nd year in the league after being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2012. He was only alright as a pass blocker, but he excelled as a run blocker at 6-5 343, grading out 3^rd at his position in that aspect. He’s still a one-year wonder, after playing 111 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but he could easily have another strong year this year, in his 3^rd year in the league.

While the trio of Brown, Myers, and Brooks are very solid starters, the Texans had serious problems at left guard and right tackle last season. They might have fixed the left guard issue by drafting Xavier Su’a-Filo in the 2^nd round of the draft, 33^rd overall. He’ll be a day 1 starter and he should be an upgrade, even as a rookie, over Wade Smith, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 58^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible last season. He remains unsigned on the open market going into his age 33 season.

The Texans didn’t do anything about the right tackle position, where Derek Newton was Pro Football Focus’ 72^nd ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. He wasn’t much better in 2012, when he was 67^th out of 80 eligible. The Texans are hoping that 2013 3^rd round pick Brennan Williams can push Newton for the starting job at some point this season, but Williams has had serious issues with his knee since being drafted. He had microfracture surgery that cost him his entire rookie year and the Texans still don’t know if he’ll be ready for the start of Training Camp. Missing Training Camp obviously would severely hurt his chances of winning the starting job. He also missed most of his senior season at North Carolina with a shoulder injury, so he hasn’t played much football over the past 2 seasons and seems extremely injury prone. It’s a solid offensive line overall, but there are some issues.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Texans also had one of the top pass catchers in the NFL last season in Andre Johnson. Despite Houston’s issues at quarterback last season, Johnson still caught 109 passes for 1407 yards and 5 touchdowns and ranked 7^th in the NFL in receiving yardage. He did that on 613 routes run and averaged 2.30 yards per route run, 9^th in the NFL. He only caught 109 of his league leading 176 targets (61.9%), but that was still a significantly higher percentage than the 58.6% of passes Texan quarterbacks completed in general. Texan quarterbacks also averaged 7.99 YPA when throwing to Johnson, as opposed to 6.61 YPA in general.

The issue is that Johnson is holding out because he wants to be traded elsewhere. He’s apparently displeased that the Texans waited until the 4^th round of the draft to take a quarterback. He’s missing valuable time with a new quarterback and head coach and he risks getting out of shape if his holdout goes into Training Camp. He’s also going into his age 33 season, which makes this holdout even more concerning.

Johnson’s 12,661 yards are 17th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson isn’t quite there right now, but he’s at the point in his career where is age is becoming a concern.

It’s why he’s unlikely to be traded. The Texans aren’t going to get much compensation for him because he’s owed 11 million, 11.5 million, and 12 million in 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively and he’s pretty much year-to-year in terms of when his abilities could fall off a cliff. He could easily be a one-year investment at those non-guaranteed salaries so someone isn’t going to give the Texans much for him. On top of that, there really isn’t a wide receiver needy contender that has the cap space to add Johnson. Unless he holds out into the season, it doesn’t really make much sense for the Texans to trade Johnson for minimal compensation.

Any production Johnson loses this season as a result of his holdout and his age should be the gain of 2^nd year wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who was the 26^th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Hopkins is working as the #1 receiver in Johnson’s absence, becoming better acquainted with the new offensive system and the new quarterback. Hopkins had a decent rookie year, catching 52 passes for 802 yards and 2 touchdowns on 629 routes run, an average of 1.29 yards per route run. He caught 52 of 91 targets, 57.1%.

His yards per route run was below league average, his completion percentage when thrown to was below the team average, and he graded slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, but he was still more productive than the average 1st round pick receiver as a rookie. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 lines respectively as rookies, both inferior to Hopkins’ rookie year. Wide receivers usually take a year or so to get adjusted to the NFL and Hopkins could make a leap in his 2nd year in the league in 2014. Reports on him in OTAs and minicamp have been very promising.

The Texans’ depth at wide receiver is very underwhelming, which is a concern if Johnson’s holdout extends into the season or he gets traded. However, as long as Johnson is out there, their lack of depth at the position isn’t a huge concern. They rarely ran 3-wide receiver sets under Gary Kubiak and they’re unlikely to run many more now under new head coach Bill O’Brien, in favor of using more two-tight end sets.

Keshawn Martin struggled on 385 snaps as the 3^rd wide receiver last season and on 268 snaps in that role as a 4^th round rookie in 2012. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 99^th ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible in pass catching grade last season and he would have been Pro Football Focus’ 5^th worst ranked wide receiver in pass catching grade in 2012 if he had been eligible, despite playing just 268 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out lower, both overall and in pure pass catching grade.

DeVier Posey, meanwhile, has struggled on 413 snaps combined over the past 2 seasons since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2012. Alan Bonner is a 2013 6^th round pick who didn’t play a snap as a rookie. Mike Thomas is the veteran option. He was out of the league last year, after struggling on 463 snaps in 2012, being traded from Jacksonville to Detroit mid-season. His composite grade would have been 5^th worst among eligible wide receivers that season. He’s been better in the past, as the 2009 4^th round pick caught 66 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2010, but he hasn’t graded out above average since that season. He’s reportedly impressing in off-season practice and could be the favorite for the #3 wide receiver job, but I don’t expect much from him.

As I mentioned, the Texans will use a lot of two-tight end sets. With the injury prone and aging Owen Daniels gone, Garrett Graham will once again be the #1 tight end. He rose to this role last season after Daniels went down for the season week 5. Graham was re-signed to a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal this off-season, which is weird because he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 56^th ranked tight end out of 64 eligible last season on 786 snaps. He struggled as both a pass and run blocker and caught 49 passes for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns on 421 routes run, an average of 1.29 yards per route run.

He was better on 646 snaps in 2012, grading out above average, though the 2010 4^th round pick played a combined 30 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league. He should be a slightly below average starter in the biggest role of his career this season. The 2^nd tight end role will come down to either Ryan Griffin or CJ Fiedorowicz, both of whom are better blockers than Graham. Griffin was unimpressive on 368 snaps as a 6^th round rookie in 2013 and Fiedorowicz is a 3^rd round rookie out of Iowa. The tight end position is unimpressive considering how much they will rely on two-tight end sets, but it’s better than their depth at wide receiver. After Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, there are issues in the receiving corps and the former is holding out.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Texans’ defense was, by far, their best unit last season. Hands down, the #1 reason for that was JJ Watt. Watt didn’t get the attention he got in 2012 with 21 sacks on a 12 win team, when he won Defensive Player of the Year in his 2^nd year in the league, but he arguably had a better season, even though he only had 11 sacks on a 2 win team. He’s the most dominant player in the NFL at any position and that includes Peyton Manning. Manning is obviously more valuable because of the position he plays, but no one dominates their position like Watt does.

Watt didn’t come close to matching the 21 sacks he had in 2012 nor the 15 batted passes, but he had 36 quarterback hits and 38 quarterback hurries (on 556 snaps), as opposed to 25 hits and 30 hurries the year before (on 610 snaps). Those 36 quarterback hits were by far best in the NFL. Only Robert Quinn with 23 even came close. As a result, Watt had a pass rush rate of 15.3% which not only blew out of the water the next best pass rush rate by an interior defensive lineman (Gerald McCoy with 13.5%), but it blew the 12.5% pass rush rate he had in 2012 out of the water as well. Sacking the quarterback is great, but getting to the quarterback consistently, getting in his head and hurrying throws is even better.

Watt didn’t match his absurd 17.1% run stop rate from 2013, but his 13.7% run stop rate was 2nd in the NFL among eligible players (percentage of run snaps in which a player records a tackle within 4 yards of the original line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down). Watt also actually had a higher run grade on Pro Football Focus in 2013 than in 2012 and a higher grade overall. He didn’t post the flashy numbers he did in 2012 or play on a good team like in 2012, but the argument can still be made that he played as well or better.

I argued he should have been Defensive Player of the Year again, even though he had no shot of actually winning. The voters hate voting for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, as the only player to ever win it twice in a row was Lawrence Taylor and he did it in a strike shortened season. It wasn’t going to happen for the first time in a season of regular length with a guy who played on a 2-14 team and didn’t come close to matching his sack total from the year before.

Watt was once again both Pro Football Focus’ highest rated 3-4 defensive end and Pro Football Focus’ highest rated player at any position, doing so for the 2^nd straight season. No defensive player in the NFL had a bigger margin between the player who was in 2nd place behind him at his position on Pro Football Focus than Watt in terms of raw numbers and only Quinn had a bigger margin in terms of percentage. Watt alone elevated this defense to one of the better defenses in the NFL and he could easily do so again this season.

The Texans did lose veteran Antonio Smith this off-season, going into his age 33 season. Even though he was aging, he still was a big contributor last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked 3-4 defensive end. He struggled against the run, as he usually does, but he ranked 5^th at his position in pass rush grade. It’ll be hard for the Texans to replace him, especially since it doesn’t look like they have anyone close to as good as him on their current roster.

Jared Crick is one option. The 2012 4^th round pick might have been drafted with this situation in mind, but, after flashing on 220 snaps as a rookie, he struggled on 277 snaps this season. Tim Jamison has been an impressive career backup since going undrafted in 2009, but he’s only played 741 snaps in 5 seasons. Ricardo Matthews is a veteran option coming over as a free agent from Indianapolis, but the 2010 7^th round pick has graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, including last year, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 42^nd ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 45 eligible on 437 snaps, with no one grading out worse and playing fewer snaps.

The Texans also lost starting nose tackle Earl Mitchell though that isn’t as big of a deal because it’s only a two-down role and because Mitchell graded out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2010. The Texans drafted Louis Nix in the 3^rd round. He fell in the draft because of injuries, but he practiced in minicamp. The 6-2 331 pounder should be able to play alright in a two-down nose tackle role in the middle of their defense, even as a rookie.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

While the Texans did lose Antonio Smith, Jadeveon Clowney should be able to replace his pass rush production, even if he does play a different position. Clowney was a much needed addition because their outside linebackers sucked last year, particularly in rushing the passer off the edge. Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus played virtually every snap, playing 1038 and 970 respectively out of 1060 possible snaps. They ranked 2^nd and 6^th respective among 3-4 outside linebackers in snaps played, but they were Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst and worst ranked 3-4 outside linebackers respectively. Both played the run alright, but struggled mightily rushing the passer. Clowney will instantly be, by far, their best edge rusher.

Whitney Mercilus will remain in the starting lineup, though he could play fewer snaps, and the Texans will be hoping that the 2012 1^st round pick can finally breakout in his 3^rd year in the league. He wasn’t much better as a rookie, grading out 28^th out of 34 eligible that season. Brooks Reed, meanwhile, could be moving to middle linebacker, at least in base packages. He’s not much of a pass rusher, grading out worst at his position in that aspect last season, but he graded out above average in run grade. This has been a trend throughout his career as he’s graded out below average as a pass rusher and above average as a run stopper in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011. He could be a better fit inside.

Another reason why Reed could be moving to middle linebacker is because they have a massive need at the position. Daryl Sharpton graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season, which isn’t terrible, but now he’s gone, as is Joe Mays, who was a two-down base package middle linebacker last season. Brian Cushing is back from injury (more on that later), but they still need someone to line up next to him. That’s where Reed would come in. He’d only have to play two-downs because safety DJ Swearinger comes down towards the line of scrimmage and essentially plays a coverage linebacker role in sub packages. That would allow Reed to still provide depth at edge rusher in sub packages if needed.

Cushing, meanwhile, is a dominant middle linebacker when he’s on the field. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker as a rookie in 2009, after going in the first round, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked middle linebacker. However, he missed 4 games with suspension in 2010, which put him behind the 8-ball and caused him to grade out below average.

That’s the only season in 5 years in the league in which he graded out below average, but he’s missed 20 games over the past 2 seasons combined with leg injuries, which is a serious concern. He should be ready to go for this season, but he’s very injury prone and, even only going into his age 27 season, there are no guarantees that he can be as good as he once was, even if he stays on the field. It’s still an improved linebacking corps though with Cushing back, Clowney coming in, Reed moving over, and Mercilus going into his 3^rd year in the league.

Grade: B

Secondary

As I mentioned, DJ Swearinger will play linebacker in sub packages, as the 5-10 217 pounder played 66.3% of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage last season, 9^th among eligible safeties. He’ll continue in that role, playing safety in base packages and linebacker in sub packages. The 2013 2^nd round pick struggled as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 72^nd ranked safety out of 86 eligible, but he could be better in his 2^nd year in the league.

Chris Clemons will play every down at the other safety spot. Clemons was a steal on a 2-year, 2.7 million dollar deal, coming over from Miami. Clemons was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked safety last season and 25th ranked safety in 2012 in two years as a starter with the Dolphins, his only two years as a starter. The Texans didn’t have anyone like him at safety last season, where Danieal Manning and Ed Reed started the season as starters, before the former got hurt and the latter got cut. Then Swearinger and Shiloh Keo took over as the starters and struggled, with Eddie Pleasant playing 155 snaps as the 3rd safety.

That 3^rd safety job is up for grabs. Pleasant, a 2012 undrafted free agent who played 3 snaps as a rookie in 2012, could keep the job after flashing on those 155 snaps in 2013. Shiloh Keo played 793 snaps last season and could keep a significant role, even after struggling last season. The 2011 5^th round pick has graded out below average in every season he’s been in the league and only played a combined 76 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league combined.

Most likely, it’ll be veteran free agent addition Kendrick Lewis, who the Texans signed from Kansas City. Lewis has been a starter for 4 years in Kansas City, since going in the 5^th round in 2010, grading out above average in 2 of them, though he’s graded out below average in the past 2 seasons and hasn’t been the same recently thanks to injuries. He’s missed 11 games in 4 seasons. However, he should be a better fit as the 3^rd safety in Houston, provided he beats out the competition.

Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph will continue to be the starters at cornerback. Jackson, a 2010 1^st round pick, seemingly had a breakout year in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13^th ranked cornerback and allowing 46.8% completion, after struggling in the first 2 seasons of his career. However, Jackson regressed in 2013, grading out below average. He’s now graded out below average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league and that 2012 campaign looks like a fluke and makes him look like a one-year wonder. He’s still a talented cornerback though and could have a bounce back year this year. It would obviously benefit him as he’s in his contract year and set to hit free agency next off-season.

Johnathan Joseph is a veteran working on a 5-year, 48.75 million dollar deal, but he hasn’t been worth that kind of money since his first year on the contract in 2011, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked cornerback. However, even though he hasn’t been as good as that season or as good as 2009, when he was with the Bengals and ranked 6^th among cornerbacks, he’s still graded out above average in every season since 2008. He was Pro Football Focus’ 25^th ranked cornerback last season. He’s now going into his age 30 season so his best days might be behind him, but he should still be an asset for the Texans.

The 3^rd cornerback last season was Brice McCain, but he was awful, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst cornerback on 633 snaps. The Texans cut him this off-season and his absence should be addition by subtraction. The issue is the Texans don’t really have a proven replacement. Brandon Harris will likely be asked to step up, going into the 4th season of his career and the contract year of his rookie deal, after being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011. He hasn’t really lived up to his draft status, only playing 415 snaps in 3 seasons in the league. We’ll see how he does this season. There are issues in this secondary, but there’s also talent and they should be improved over last season. It’s a solid defense overall.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans’ offense won’t be significantly improved this season because they didn’t seriously upgrade the quarterback position, but their defense should still be solid despite the loss of Antonio Smith, thanks to the addition of Jadeveon Clowney and the return of Brian Cushing from injury. They aren’t significantly more talented this season than last season, but they were much better than their record suggested last year. They just got screwed by close losses (2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less), fumbles (44.44% fumble recovery), turnovers (-20 turnover margin), and return touchdowns (-6 return touchdowns), things that all tend to be very inconsistent.

They finished last season 21^st in rate of moving the chains differential and they could easily be a middle of the pack team this season, relying on their running game, a strong offensive line, and a solid defense to win games. They’ll have an easy schedule so there will be opportunities for them to win games and even make noise in the playoff race. I think they need to significantly upgrade the quarterback position before that happens, but they’ll be in the mix. I’ll have an official season prediction for them after I finish every team’s preview.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 29, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In 2 seasons in the league, Andrew Luck is 14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, 15-2 if you include a one point comeback home win over the Chiefs in last year’s playoffs, before the Colts got demolished in Foxboro the following week. The Colts have won 22 regular season games over the past 2 seasons. 14 of them have come by 7 points or fewer. That’s not sustainable. The Colts once again significantly exceeded their Pythagorean Expectation by winning 11 games last year.

In 2012, their point differential suggested that they should have won about 7.2 games. In 2013, they were better, but their point differential suggested that they should have won about 9.4 games. They were clearly a better team in 2013 as they had a better Pythagorean Expectation despite a harder schedule (32^nd ranked schedule in terms of DVOA in 2012, 23^rd in 2013) and despite more injuries (31^st in adjusted games lost in 2013, 30^th in 2012).

The Colts should have fewer injuries this season and they play in arguably the weakest division in the NFL so their schedule might not get any harder. In fact, it could get easier as they swap out the AFC and NFC West for the NFC East and the AFC North. However, they can’t consistently count on eking out close victories. If they want to win 11 or more games this season and if they want to advance deeper into the post-season, they’ll have to be a better team.

Easily the biggest reason that the Colts were an improved team in 2013, as opposed to 2012, was Andrew Luck’s improved play. In 2012, Luck relied on close victories against bad opponents, rather than his own strong play to win games, as he completed 54.1% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. In 2013, he became a much improved quarterback, completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also improved as a runner going from 255 yards and 5 touchdowns on 62 carries in 2012 (4.11 YPA) to 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on 63 carries in 2013 (5.98 YPA).

Luck was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked quarterback, though much of that was because he was their 3^rd ranked quarterback in terms of running grade, behind only Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. In terms of pure passing grade, he was actually 20^th, though that was up from 2012 when he was 24^th in that aspect. Luck did this despite losing significant players around him to serious injuries. He had a slightly improved offensive line as compared to 2012, when they were horrible, but most of his improvement can be attributed to Luck himself. He should continue to improve going into his 3^rd year in the league.

Luck’s play was a big part of the reason why the Colts finished 14^th in rate of moving the chains, moving them 72.21% offensively. They still finished 14^th in differential at 0.70%, 2^nd worst among playoff teams, but that was more because their defense ranked 17^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71.52% rate. If they’re going to improve from being the roughly league average team they were last season and become a team that can go on a long playoff run, they’ll need better play on the defensive side of the ball.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

I mentioned the Colts had an improved offensive line in 2013. That’s true, but it’s really only by default. After ranking 31^st on Pro Football Focus in terms of team pass blocking grade and 24^th in team run blocking grade in 2012, the Colts improved to 25^th and 23^rd in those two measures. They still had serious issues up front, especially on the interior of their offensive line. One of the problems is they lost Donald Thomas to an injury. Thomas was signed to a 4-year, 14 million dollar deal before last season to shore up a problem position at left guard, but he lasted 72 snaps before going down for the season with injury.

Having a healthy Thomas back should help this offensive line. In Thomas’ absence, the 3^rd round rookie Hugh Thornton had to take over as the starter and he ended up grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 69^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. Thomas flashed on those 72 snaps and also has a history of some success. He graded out above average as a starter in Miami in 2009, barely played from 2010-2011 and then found playing time as an injury replacement in New England in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th ranked guard on 614 snaps. No one graded out higher and played fewer snaps. As long as he’s healthy this season, he should be a much needed asset for them on the interior of their offensive line.

Thornton could still be a starter this season, but only because the Colts “lost” Mike McGlynn this off-season. I put “lost” in quotation marks because McGlynn was horrible over the past 2 seasons as a starter in Indianapolis, grading out 73^rd out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and dead last out of 81 eligible guards in 2012. Losing him is a good thing even if it means Thornton has to become a starter. Thornton, as bad as he was last year, was still better than McGlynn and he could be improved going into his 2^nd year in the league. The Colts also drafted Zach Mewhort in the 2^nd round to compete with Thornton for the right guard job and to provide depth at every position except center if he can’t lock down a starting job.

Another player the Colts “lost” is Jeff Linkenbach, who has served as a utility offensive lineman over the past few seasons, often making starts at both guard and tackle. He’s struggled mightily in that role though, including last year, when he graded out 57^th out of 81 eligible guards, despite playing just 368 snaps. On top of that, the Colts “lost” starting center Samson Satele, when they cut the underachieving starter. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked center out of 35 eligible last season. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by 2013 4^th round pick Khaled Holmes, who played 13 snaps as a rookie. He could still be an upgrade, though there’s obviously no guarantee with an inexperienced former mid-round pick like him. Either way, the interior offensive line should better this year, even if it’s only by default.

While things were bad on the interior of the offensive line last season, things were pretty solid at tackle for the Colts, with Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus essentially playing every snap at left and right tackle respectively (Cherilus played 1092 and Castonzo played 1088 out of 1093 possible). They graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 27^th and 25^th ranked offensive tackles respectively, both well above average. Castonzo was a 2011 1^st round pick and is now going into his 4^th year in the league. The Colts picked up his 5^th year option for 2015 this off-season. He’s graded out above average in all 3 years he’s been in the league, improved every year, and has missed a combined 5 snaps over the past 2 seasons combined.

Cherilus is also a former 1^st round pick, going in the first round in 2008, drafted by the Lions, and then signing a 5-year, 34 million dollar deal with the Colts last off-season. Cherilus earned that deal by grading out above average in every season from 2009 on and having the best season of his career in his contract year in 2012, grading out 8^th. It’s always risky giving a ton of money to a guy coming off of the best year of his career and he was just 37^th among offensive tackles in 2011. There was also concern about Cherilus’ history of knee problems, even though he rarely missed games. It’s still very possible that 2012 will be easily the best year of Cherilus’ career, as he heads into his age 30 season, but he’s still an asset on the right side for the Colts.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

I mentioned how much the Colts struggled run blocking last season. That’s part of the reason why Trent Richardson struggled so much once the Colts acquired him from the Browns for a first round pick. The 3^rd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Richardson averaged 2.92 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns on 157 carries in 14 games with the Colts. However, he averaged 1.90 yards per carry after contact and broke 47 tackles on 185 touches (he also added 28 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown), giving him the 10^th highest elusive rating in the NFL. As a result, even though he struggled mightily on the stat sheet, he wasn’t Pro Football Focus’ worst running back last season (he was 10^th worst, and 3^rd worst in pure run grade, but still).

Donald Brown had a lot of success last season, rushing for 537 yards and 6 touchdowns on 102 carries, an average of 5.26 yards per carry, but he too had to rush for a lot of yards after contact and break a lot of tackles. Brown broke 29 tackles on 129 touches and averaged 3.28 yards per carry after contact, giving him the highest elusive rating in the NFL. Richardson has shown the ability to break tackles and pick up yards after contact dating back to his days in Cleveland, starting in 2012.

Richardson rushed for 3.56 yards per carry in 2012, but he ranked 16^th in elusive rating, breaking 59 tackles on 318 touches and averaging 2.09 yards per carry after contact. In 2013 with the Browns, he rushed for 3.39 yards per carry. However, he rushed for 2.42 yards after contact and broke 16 tackles on 38 touches, giving the Cleveland version of him an elusive rating even higher than Donald Brown’s. Much of Richardson’s struggles last season had to do with the Colts’ offensive line and he ran better than his numbers suggested.

However, much of it also had to do with Richardson himself. Richardson showed poor vision and burst, which is part of why there were so few “blocked” yards from him to pick up. He wasn’t hitting the hole hard enough or in the right location, two things he’s had issues with since being drafted. He blamed a lot of it on not knowing the playbook fully, which would explain why he struggled even more upon his arrival in Indianapolis. That issue should be corrected this off-season and the offensive line should be better as well.

The 3^rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, there’s still time for him to turn it around, going into only his age 23 season and his 3^rd year in the league. Richardson drew a lot of comparisons to Marshawn Lynch in the pre-draft process for his size, physicality, and violent running style. Lynch averaged 3.92 yards per carry in his first 4 seasons in the NFL, but he’s averaged 4.50 yards per carry over the previous 3 seasons. Richardson can still breakout as that type of running back.

Richardson will get competition from Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw with Donald Brown gone. Both Ballard and Bradshaw are coming off of season ending injuries. Ballard rushed for 63 yards on 13 carries in one game last season before tearing his ACL. A mediocre runner, Ballard was a 5^th round pick in 2012 and rushed for 814 yards and 2 touchdowns on 211 carries as a rookie, an average of 3.86 yards per carry, grading out about average on Pro Football Focus.

Bradshaw, meanwhile, rushed for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 carries in 3 games last season before going down with a serious neck injury. Bradshaw is now going into his age 28 season, which is like 33 for running backs, with a significant injury history, missing 19 games with various injuries over the past 3 seasons and being limited in many others. However, he’s a tough running back who has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 962 career carries, so he could be an asset this season if he stays on the field. Overall though, the Colts are going to need Richardson to improve this season if the Colts are going to average 4.26 yards per carry again, as Donald Brown is gone. We’ll see if he can do that.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned that the Colts lost two running backs and an offensive lineman early in the season to injury, as they were one of the most injury riddled teams in the NFL. They also lost a wide receiver and a tight end to season ending injuries fairly early in the season. That wide receiver was Reggie Wayne, who tore his ACL in the Colts’ 7^th game of the season, after 38 catches for 503 yards and 2 touchdowns in 7 games and on 255 routes run, an average of 1.97 yards per route run.

Wayne was the Colts’ most reliable player prior to his injury, not missing a game since his rookie season in 2001 and catching 1006 passes for 13,566 yards and 80 touchdowns in his career. Those 13,566 career yards are 11th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done, but he’s going into his age 36 season now and coming off of that serious injury. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne showed some signs of decline last season and there’s no guarantee that he can be anything close to what the Colts are used to from him this year. He’s owed 4 million in the final season of his contract and this could easily be the final year of his career.

The Colts signed Hakeem Nicks to a one-year deal this off-season. Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He averaged 2.30 yards per route run in 2009 on 344 routes run and 2.32 yards per route run in 2010 on 453 routes run. In 2011, he “only” averaged 2.08 yards per route run on 572 routes run, thanks to the development of Victor Cruz opposite him, but he was still a big part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team. His development seems to have stagnated over the past 2 seasons though thanks to a variety of lower body injuries and he’s never played all 16 games in a season, missing 10 games over the past 5 seasons and being limited in many others.

Nicks averaged 1.74 yards per route run on 398 routes run in 2012 and 1.70 yards per route run on 527 routes run in 2013. Last year was especially bad as he didn’t score all season and struggled with his chemistry with Eli Manning. 7 passes thrown to him were picked off and Manning’s quarterback rating when throwing to him was 57.0, 7^th worst among eligible wide receivers. All that being said, he still has plenty of talent, which still flashes, and even his down years weren’t awful. He’s only going into his age 26 season, so he could be an asset for the Colts in the passing game. At the very least, he’ll be the Colts’ #3 wide receiver this year, but he could start over Reggie Wayne.

Nicks will also be an upgrade over Darrius Heyward-Bey who struggled mightily on a one-year deal last season. Losing him will be addition by subtraction. He caught 29 passes for 309 yards and a touchdown on 58 targets (50.0%) on 382 routes run (0.81 yards per route run). He also dropped 9 passes and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th worst ranked wide receiver overall, including 2^nd worst in pure pass catching grade. Donte Moncrief was the Colts’ 3^rd round pick, but the raw height/weight/speed wideout is unlikely to have an impact as a rookie as the 4^th receiver. He’ll get his chance at playing time going in 2015, as Nicks and Wayne will both be free agents this off-season.

One positive of Reggie Wayne’s injury last season was that it allowed TY Hilton to have a breakout year as the #1 receiver in his absence. Hilton caught 82 passes for 1083 yards and 5 touchdowns on 533 routes run, an average of 2.03 yards per route run. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 29^th ranked wide receiver. He’s no longer just a deep threat reliant on big plays to make an impact, as he was as a rookie when he caught 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns on 479 routes run, an average of 1.80 yards per routes. Now going into his 3^rd year in the league, a common breakout year for wide receivers, Hilton could be even better. The 2012 3^rd round pick is going into only his age 25 season. He was dominant in the post-season, catching 17 passes for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He’ll once again be the Colts’ #1 receiver in 2014.

The other Colts’ pass catcher who went down with a season ending injury was Dwayne Allen, who went down with a hip injury 30 snaps into week 1, after just 1 catch for 20 yards. That was a bigger loss than most people realize because of how good Allen was as a rookie in 2012. The 2012 3^rd round pick only caught 45 passes for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he did so on 64 targets, meaning he caught 70.3% of targets, and on 368 routes run, meaning he averaged 1.42 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked tight end in pass catching grade, but where he really excelled was as a blocker, both a run and pass blocker, and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked tight end as a result. Essentially a younger version of Heath Miller, Allen could be a big boost to the Colts upon his return this year, going into his 3^rd year in the league.

In Allen’s absence, Coby Fleener led Colts’ tight ends in snaps played with 834. Fleener was a 2^nd round pick in 2012, going before Allen, but he’s not nearly as good as Allen, grading out only slightly above average in each of his first 2 years in the league. Fleener caught 52 passes for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns on 482 routes run, an average of 1.26 yards per route run. He caught 52 of 84 targets (61.9%) and only dropped one pass all season. He wasn’t much of a blocker though.

He’ll become the #2 tight end this season and work primarily as a move tight end with Allen working as an every down in-line tight end. The Colts rarely ran two-tight end sets last year after Allen went down as, after Fleener, the tight end who played the 2^nd most snaps was Jack Doyle, who struggled on 198 snaps. They ran a lot of three wide receiver sets with TY Hilton, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and a combination of Da’Rick Rodgers, LaVon Brazill, and Griff Whalen last season, an underwhelming bunch.

They’ll run a lot more two-tight end sets this season and they won’t be afraid to pass out of them. Adding tight end guru Rob Chudzinski as an offensive assistant will also help. Getting Wayne and Allen back from injury, as well as the addition of Hakeem Nicks, will give Andrew Luck more weapons to work with and make this offense better. The Colts will also get guys back from injury at running back and offensive line that will help them on this side of the ball.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

The Colts also need to get better on the defensive side of the ball and they can’t rely on getting guys back from injury to help them improve. They did sign Arthur Jones from Baltimore though, on a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal. A 2010 5th round pick, Arthur Jones developed from a solid reserve in 2011 on 255 snaps to a solid starter on 536 snaps to a breakout player in 2013 on 530 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end.

He was overpaid though, getting 33 million over 5 years with 16 million guaranteed. At his best, he’s worth that kind of money, but he’s still just a one year wonder at this point in his career. There’s no guarantee he’ll continue to be this good. He’s never played more than 536 snaps in a season and he’s never been the key cog on Baltimore’s defensive line, rotating often and playing alongside Haloti Ngata. He’ll be counted on for a bigger role in Indianapolis and he’ll instantly become the top player on their defensive line, which could be too much for them, though he will be reunited with one-time Baltimore defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, who is the head coach in Indianapolis.

The Colts made a big splash in free agency the previous off-season as well, signing Ricky Jean-Francois from San Francisco on a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal. It was a weird deal because Jean-Francois was a 2009 7th round pick who had played just 715 snaps in 4 seasons. He definitely flashed as a reserve in San Francisco, but he didn’t seem to be worth that kind of money. Jean-Francois played just 405 snaps in his first year in Indianapolis, missing 5 games with injury. He played pretty well when on the field, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked 3-4 defensive end, playing well against the run, but unspectacularly as a pass rusher. He’ll have the biggest role of his career this season, assuming he stays healthy. We’ll see if he can handle it.

Jones and Jean-Francois will work in rotation with veteran Cory Redding. Redding had a vintage year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked 3-4 defensive end, including 7^th in run stopping grade, but he’s going into his age 34 season so it’s unclear if he can continue that. It’s also definitely worth mentioning that he graded out 29^th out of 34 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2012. Jones, Jean-Francois, and Redding will play the vast majority of snaps at 3-4 defensive end and play inside in sub packages and rush the passer. This is because the Colts lost mediocre reserves Fili Moala and Ricardo Matthews, who played 513 and 437 snaps respectively in 2013, this off-season.

The Colts also lost the mediocre Aubrayo Franklin this off-season. He played 340 snaps as a two-down nose tackle last season. That role is all Josh Chapman’s now. The 2012 5^th round pick didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but he played 242 snaps last season and fared decently. He offered absolutely no pass rush, with 2 hurries on 114 pass rush snaps, but he played the run well and graded out about average. He’ll see probably 400-500 snaps in a base package nose tackle role this season.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts’ top edge rusher last season was Robert Mathis, who tied for the NFL lead with 19 sacks last season. He’s a very talented player, but I’m going to pick him apart a little bit. While he had 19 sacks last year, he only had 5 hits and 39 hurries to go with those 19 sacks on 484 snaps, a rate of 13.0%. That’s impressive, but not nearly as good as someone like Robert Quinn, who also had 19 sacks, but totaled 21 hits and 54 hurries on 514 pass rush snaps, a rate of 18.3% which is much more impressive. It’s for that reason that I didn’t think Mathis deserved Defensive Player of the Year consideration.

Still, Mathis was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season. However, he’s going into his age 33 season so he’s at the point where his age is something to take into consideration. That’s especially true when you consider that Mathis actually graded out below average in 2012. He graded out above average in every season from 2007-2011, so 2012 is the outlier, but it’s a concern that he had a season like that recently when you consider his age. He’s unlikely to play as well in 2014 at his age as he did in 2013, in what was one of the best years of his career. On top of that, Mathis is suspended for the first 4 games of the season for performance enhancing drugs, which will not only cost him 4 games, but could really put him behind the 8-ball this season.

Bjoern Werner and Erik Walden will have to play bigger roles in Mathis’ absence this season and both will play significant rotational roles even upon Mathis’ return. Walden was signed to a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal by the Colts last off-season even though he was awful in Green Bay in 2011 and 2012, grading out as easily Pro Football Focus’ worst 3-4 outside linebacker in both seasons. He wasn’t as bad in 2013, but he didn’t live up to his contract, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 42 eligible.

Colts fans hoping that 2013 1^st round pick Bjoern Werner would step up into a bigger role in his 2^nd year in the league and turn Walden into a backup had to be extremely disappointed when they found out about Mathis’ suspension. Werner himself struggled last season, grading out 35^th among 42 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers on just 312 snaps. The 24^th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Werner could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. He will have a bigger role either way though.

Another big free agent acquisition was D’Qwell Jackson, who the Colts signed to a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal. He’ll play every down inside at middle linebacker. The issue is he’s simply not worth that kind of money. D’Qwell Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season and 41st out of 53 eligible in 2012. Going into his age 31 season, Jackson is unlikely to get any better this season. Jerrell Freeman will continue to play every down inside and line up next to Jackson. Freeman has been a solid starter over the last 2 seasons since coming over from Canada, grading out 22^nd among middle linebackers in 2012 and 17^th among middle linebackers in 2013, while not missing a single game. The Colts should expect more of the same from him this season.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The biggest financial investment the Colts made this off-season was easily re-signing top cornerback Vontae Davis to a 4-year, 39 million dollar deal. That might not pan out though, as Davis has an inconsistent past. Vontae Davis had a dominant contract year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback and 2nd in terms of coverage grade. However, the Colts are overpaying him based on his contract year. That type of move doesn’t usually end well.

Davis was a 1st round pick in 2009 by Miami and he’s never been able to consistently put it all together. He had a solid rookie year on 709 snaps, grading out 26th among cornerbacks, and then looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in 2010, grading out 12th. However, he missed 4 games with injury in 2011, fell down to 37th, and then fell out of favor with the coaching staff when Joe Philbin came in, getting benched in the pre-season before 2012 for being out of shape. The Dolphins were able to trade him to the Colts for a 2^nd and 6^th round pick and it looked like the Colts got hosed in that trade, as he missed 6 more games in 2012 and graded out 74th. He put it all together for his contract year, but who is to say he won’t coast and get out of shape again now that he has 20 million guaranteed?

Greg Toler is penciled in as the other starting cornerback, but that’s assuming he can stay healthy, something he’s been unable to do his entire career. In 5 years in the league, he’s never played all 16 games, missing 33 games in 5 seasons, including 7 games last season. Toler also struggled last year when he was on the field, grading out below average, though he’s been better in the past, grading out above average in 2009 and 2012 and below average in 2010 (he didn’t play a snap in 2011 thanks to injury). He could be a decent starter if he stays healthy, but that’s a massive if.

Darius Butler is the 3^rd cornerback and slot specialist. He’s only supposed to be a part-time player, but he played 704 snaps and made 7 starts last season because of the injury to Toler. Butler flashed on 380 snaps in 2012, which got him a 2-year, 4 million dollar deal, but he also graded out below average in 2 of 3 years from 2009-2011, after getting drafted in the 2^nd round in 2009, maxing out at 497 snaps over that time period. There’s a reason he was available mid-season for the Colts in 2012.

Butler regressed a little bit last season from 2012, grading out slightly below average. He’s settled in as a marginal cornerback who can play the slot and start if needed. Josh Gordy, meanwhile, is the 4^th cornerback and will see action if someone gets hurt, as someone probably will (Toler and/or Davis most likely). Butler had been decent over the past 2 seasons on a combined 401 snaps, but he struggled mightily in his one season of significant action in 2011, grading out 97^th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks on 631 snaps.

The Colts also have issues at safety, as they lost decent starting safety and long-time veteran Antoine Bethea to free agency this off-season and didn’t really replace him. Right now it’s essentially a 3-way battle for the starting job between Sergio Brown, Delano Howell, and Mike Adams and none of them are really impressive. Howell has been unspectacular on 212 snaps in 2 seasons since going undrafted in 2012. Brown went undrafted in 2010 and has played 63 snaps over the past 2 seasons combined and 506 snaps in 4 seasons combined.

Mike Adams is the proven veteran one of the bunch, but he’s going into his age 33 season. Adams lost his starting job to the unspectacular Duke Ihenacho last pre-season with Denver. He still played 703 snaps as an injury replacement, but graded out slightly below average. He was previously a solid starter, grading out slightly above average in both 2011 and 2012, but it’s very likely those days are behind him now. It took him until June to get signed. He’s probably the best of the trio though. We’ll see if he wins the job.

LaRon Landry is locked in as the other safety. He’s a decent veteran, but he’s missed 21 games in the last 4 seasons combined. He graded out above average in both 2010 and 2011, but he missed 17 games in those 2 seasons combined and that seems to have taken a toll on him as he’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons. The Colts overpaid him on a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s their best safety, but only by default and he’s going into his age 30 season now so he’s not getting any better.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Colts have won 11 games in each of the last 2 seasons, but if they want to win that many again this season, they’ll have to become a better team as they can’t keep relying on winning close games. They’ve gone 14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less over the past 2 seasons, but that’s not sustainable. Offensively, they should be better this year. Andrew Luck will only get better as he goes into his 3^rd year in the league and the Colts are getting significant players back from injury around him. Trent Richardson is the wild card, but they can become a better offense this season even if Richardson continues to struggle a little bit.

Defensively though, it’s going to be hard for them to be better this season, even after the off-season additions of Arthur Jones and D’Qwell Jackson. Jones is still a one-year wonder, while Jackson is overrated and was overpaid. They aren’t getting any significant players back from injury and they didn’t have an excessive amount of injuries last season. On top of that, their three best defensive players last season were Cory Redding, Robert Mathis, and Vontae Davis. The former two are getting up there in age and could easily decline this year, especially since Mathis will miss 4 games with suspension. The latter, meanwhile, has an inconsistent past.

I don’t think this team has 11 win talent. I think in terms of overall talent, they are actually slightly below average, though a strong season from Andrew Luck can buoy them up and mask some of their issues, as good quarterback performances usually do. On top of that, they play in arguably the easiest division in football where, not only will 9 games probably win the division, but they get 6 games against the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, which will make it pretty easy to get to that 9 win threshold. I don’t like their chances of advancing deep into the playoffs until they fix that defense though. I’ll have an official win prediction after I do all of the previews.

Prediction: 10-6 1st in AFC North

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 28, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Steelers were one of the just three teams to finish in the top-15 in rate of moving the chains differential last season and not make the playoffs, in a rare year where everyone who made the playoffs actually deserved it. The Steelers could have easily made the playoffs, and not just if the refs had made the right call in San Diego/Kansas City week 17. The Steelers went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less and ranked 28^th, recovering 43.24% of fumbles.

Of course, they were also lucky in that they had the 3^rd easiest strength of schedule according to DVOA, although things aren’t much harder this season as they replace the NFC North and AFC East with the NFC South and the AFC South. They finished last season 15^th in DVOA, 4^th best out of non-playoff teams. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they finished 13^th with a +1.00% differential. They moved the chains at a 71.81% rate offensively, 16^th in the NFL, and allowed opponents to move the chains at a 70.81% rate, 15^th in the NFL defensively. The Steelers went 6-2 in their final 8 games and lost by a combined 8 points in those 2 games and they had a +61 point differential in those 8 games.

So does that mean the Steelers have a good chance to make the playoffs this season? Not necessarily. The Steelers have been pressed up against the cap and aging defensively for several consecutive off-seasons and now enter the 2014 season with an overall slightly weaker team than they had in 2013. They lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery offensively, Brett Keisel, LaMarr Woodley, and Ryan Clark defensively and their replacements for those 5 are not necessarily adequate. They also still have an aging secondary.

One thing that remains the same is Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, as he enters his 11^th season as the Steelers’ starting quarterback. Roethlisberger’s 2013 season was right in line with his career averages as he completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, a QB rating of 92.0. In his career, he completes 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.85 YPA, 219 touchdowns, and 122 interceptions, a QB rating of 92.6. He was Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked quarterback last season. He takes fewer shots downfield now under offensive coordinator Todd Haley, which has lowered his YPA, but he completes a higher percentage of his passes and has a better touchdown to interception ratio. Going into his age 32 season, he’s still capable of leading a team to the Super Bowl, but everything has to be right around him, which it isn’t.

One thing Roethlisberger did last season that was unusual is play all 16 games, something he had only done once in his career prior. He’s missed 17 games in 10 seasons and will probably miss a game or two with some sort of injury this season, as his playing style leads him to take a lot of hits. If he does, the Steelers’ options behind him are questionable, after Roethlisberger attempted all but 2 of the Steelers’ passes last season (the other two were trick plays from the punter and the wide receiver). Bruce Gradkowski is a veteran option, going into his age 31 season. He’s completed 52.9% of his passes for an average of 5.72 YPA, 21 touchdowns and 24 interceptions in his career. Meanwhile, Landry Jones was a 2013 4^th round pick who didn’t play a snap as a rookie.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned that the Steelers lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery at wide receiver this off-season. Those were the Steelers #2 and #3 wide receivers last season, playing 810 and 648 snaps respectively. Those are big roles to fill. Sanders has caught 111 passes for 1366 yards and 7 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons as a significant contributor, including a starting role in 2013. Sanders graded out very middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus, grading out 57th and 60th respectively in 2012 and 2013 among wide receivers, while averaging 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run. He’s now in Denver.

Cotchery, meanwhile, is now in Carolina. The veteran is going into his age 32 season, but he caught 46 passes for 602 yards and 10 touchdowns on 440 routes run last season, an average of 1.38 yards per route run. He graded out 45^th among wide receivers in pass catching grade and excelled as a blocker. Markus Wheaton will probably be the #2 receiver in their absence. The 2013 3^rd rounder played on 161 snaps as a rookie and caught 6 passes for 64 yards on 106 routes run, an average of 0.60 yards per route run. He graded out below average in his limited role. How he transitions to a bigger role this season is a mystery.

Lance Moore is a free agent acquisition from New Orleans and he’ll likely work as the 3^rd receiver, playing in the slot. Moore is coming off of a down year, in which he caught 37 passes for 457 yards and 2 touchdowns on 334 routes run, an average of 1.37 yards per route run. Now he goes into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He’s only a season removed from a 65/1041/6 line in 2012, but he’s only played all 16 games once in the past 5 seasons, missing a combined 15 games and his 2^nd best line over that time period is 66/768/8, so his 2012 was pretty out of character. He’ll be a decent slot receiver, but that’s about it. The Steelers also drafted Martavis Bryant in the 4^th round. He’ll serve as the 4^th receiver as a rookie and probably won’t have much of a role.

Because of their off-season losses at wide receiver, Antonio Brown could have even more targets this year than he did last year, when he was targeted 159 times, 4^th most among wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 110 of those targets (69.2%) for 1498 yards and 8 touchdowns and averaged 2.37 yards per route run, 7^th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked wide receiver, including #1 in pure pass catching grade. The only player who had more receiving yards than him last season was Josh Gordon, who is currently expected to be suspended for the entire 2014 season.

Now fully out of the shadow of guys like Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Mike Wallace, Brown, 2010 6^th round pick, is quietly one of the best wide receivers in the game. He’s caught 245 passes for 3394 yards and 15 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons combined and now he’s coming off of the best season of his career. He’s an excellent route runner and a perfect fit for Todd Haley’s system. He’s also a threat in the return game, if they choose to continue using him in that role. The 5-year, 42.5 million dollar extension they gave him 2 off-seasons ago looks like a piece of forward thinking genius. He would have been scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency this off-season and he would have commanded 10+ million yearly, at the very least.

Heath Miller, the long-time Steeler tight end, could be 2^nd on the team in targets. Miller was limited to 58 catches for 593 yards and a touchdown last season as he missed 2 games and was limited in others after tearing his ACL towards the end of the 2012 season. That should be behind him now and he was better towards the end of last season, as he caught 34 passes for 325 yards in his final 8 games. That extrapolates to 68 catches for 650 yards over 16 games.

From 2009-2012, he averaged 60 catches for 687 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and he could easily have a year similar, if not better, than that this season as the Steelers’ 2^nd option. He’s also usually a better blocker than he was last season. He’s going into his age 32 season, but he should have another solid year. The Steelers don’t use very many two-tight end sets, with David Paulson being 2^nd on the team in snaps played by a tight end, with 189. 106 of those were played in the two games Miller missed. Paulson struggled mightily on the season and had a combined 3 catches for 49 yards in the two games Miller missed. The 2012 7^th round pick is not a good player and their depth at tight end is suspect. After Antonio Brown and Heath Miller, there are a lot of question marks in the receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Steelers actually had a decent offensive line last season as they finished as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked pass blocking team and 20^th ranked run blocking team. Things could be even better this season as they are expected to get Maurkice Pouncey back from a torn ACL that knocked him out 8 snaps into last season. The Steelers obviously believe he can return to form quickly, giving him a 5-year, 44 million dollar deal ahead of his contract year this off-season, making the 2010 1^st round pick the highest paid center in the game.

He’s not worth that kind of money, even before you consider his injury. Pouncey is perennially overrated because of the public’s inability to evaluate a center (you can’t exactly blame them). He somehow made the Pro-Bowl and the All-Pro in each of his first 3 seasons in the league. Pro Football Focus can evaluate a center as they evaluate players on a snap by snap basis, for every snap of a season. They’ve had Pouncey ranked 21st, 19th, and 12th from 2010-2012 respectively, including below average in 2010 and 2011. He’s improved every year, but there are no guarantees he can continue improving this season, especially since he could be less than 100% in his first year back from injury. He’ll still be an asset for the Steelers, most likely, and an upgrade over Fernando Velasco and Cody Wallace, both of whom struggled in Pouncey’s absence last season, but he is overrated and overpaid.

The rest of the Steelers’ offensive line should look pretty similar to 2013 this season, which is a big change for this unit. They finally seem to have some stability. David DeCastro is probably their best starter. The 2012 1^st round pick missed most of his rookie year with injury and struggled on 138 snaps upon his return, but in 2013, fully healthy, he showed why some saw him as the best interior offensive line prospect of the decade, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked guard. He could be even better in 2014, in his 3^rd year in the league.

Ramon Foster actually graded out higher than DeCastro among guards last season at the other guard spot, grading out 12^th, but the veteran doesn’t have nearly DeCastro’s upside and that’ll probably end up being the best season of his career. The 2009 undrafted free agent struggled in his first two years in the league, but graded above average as a starter in both 2011 and 2012 before last season. We’ll see if he can keep last year’s strong play up. I’m skeptical, but he should still have a solid season overall.

Marcus Gilbert is also a decent starter and he’s locked in at right tackle. He’s graded out right around average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011, though he has struggled whenever he’s been asked to play the blindside. He’s a decent starter at right tackle though and I expect more of the same from him going into his 4^th year in the league and his contract year.

At the left tackle spot, Kelvin Beachum settled into the role last season. The 2012 7^th round pick got playing time early in his career, in 2012 and early in 2013, as a utility offensive lineman, playing every position, but he struggled, strangely until he got to left tackle. Beachum took over as the starting left tackle week 6 last season and ended up grading out about average at the position, despite his struggles at right tackle as a rookie and guard and center early in 2013 and despite not having the stereotypical left tackle frame at 6-3 306. The Steelers are committed to another year of him on the blindside. He’s a better pass protector than run blocker. He’s definitely better than Mike Adams, a 2012 2^nd round pick who struggled on 497 snaps at right tackle as a rookie and then struggled even more on 485 snaps in 2013. If Adams is lucky, he’ll be the swing tackle this season. It’s a decent, but unspectacular offensive line overall.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell, a 2013 2^nd round pick, returns as the starter. He only rushed 860 yards and 8 touchdowns on 244 carries last season, an average of 3.52 YPC, but he broke tackles (46 broken tackles on 289 touches), got yards after contact (2.11 YPC after contact), and moved the chains (48 rushing first downs, 14^th in the NFL). He also added 45 catches for 399 yards through the air. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked running back and finished 27^th in elusive rating. He missed 3 games and struggled through an injury at times, but now he’s going into his 2^nd year in the league and he should be healthier. He rushed for 578 yards and 5 touchdowns on 164 carries (3.52 YPC) and caught 28 passes for 252 yards in his final 8 games. 300 carries for 1200 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns with 60 catches for 500 yards isn’t out of the question in his 2^nd year in the league.

No other Steeler running back did much on the ground either last season, as they averaged 3.51 yards per carry as a team and, unlike Bell, their other running backs didn’t make up for that by consistently getting positive yardage, breaking tackles, and running through contact. As a result, they signed LeGarrette Blount from the Patriots this off-season. He’ll be a true backup to Bell. LeGarrette Blount is a big name after what he did to the Colts in the playoffs, rushing for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, people forget he had just 6 yards on 5 carries the following week in a loss in Denver.

Blount averaged 5.19 yards per carry last season, including playoffs, on a combined 182 carries, but he was also available for a late round pick and a minimal salary the off-season prior, after averaging 4.14 yards per carry on 225 carries in 2011 and 2012 combined. His career average of 4.68 yards per carry is pretty solid, but he offers nothing as a pass catcher (23 career catches), pass protector, has minimal special teams experience (17 career returns), fumbles often (9 fumbles on 579 career carries) and has a history of discipline problems.

That being said, the Steelers signed him purely as insurance and a backup to Bell and he’s easily their 2nd best running back. Now they won’t have to rely on bums like Jonathan Dwyer, Felix Jones, and Isaac Redman if Bell gets hurt again. Dri Archer could also be in the mix for carries as Todd Haley wants to develop the 2014 3^rd round pick into what Dexter McCluster was for him in Kansas City, meaning he’ll see carries, play in the slot, and return kicks. He could work out in that role, but he could just as easily end up like Chris Rainey, a Steelers’ 5^th round pick in 2012 with a similar skill set. The diminutive, but speedy Archer (5-8 173 4.26 40) probably won’t have much of a role on offense as a rookie.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

As recently as 2012, the Steelers had 7 defensive starters who were 30+. The Steelers got rid of James Harrison and Casey Hampton last off-season and now Brett Keisel, Ryan Clark, and Larry Foote are gone, leaving Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor on an overall younger defense. However, the question is whether they are nearly as talented as they once were. As I mentioned earlier, they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 70.81% rate, 15^th in the NFL defensively last season. That’s hardly traditional Steeler defensive dominance. This off-season, they lost two starters in Brett Keisel and Ryan Clark, in addition to LaMarr Woodley, who wasn’t living up to his salary on a cap strapped Steeler team.

In order to replace Brett Keisel this off-season, the Steelers signed Cam Thomas. Keisel, going into his age 36 season now, is still available on the open market after grading out about average on Pro Football Focus on 574 snaps last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end as recently as in 2011. Cam Thomas, meanwhile, comes over from San Diego, where he was a decent reserve in 2011 and 2012, grading out above average in both seasons. However, he never played more than 485 snaps in a season. Those 485 snaps were last season, when he graded out below average. He can play both nose tackle and 3-4 defensive end and will see action at both positions in a rotational role this season.

The Steelers also lost Ziggy Hood this off-season, but that’ll be addition by subtraction. The 2009 1^st round pick bust was horrific in 5 years with the Steelers, grading out as a bottom-5 3-4 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons. He played 646 snaps last season and he’ll be replaced in the rotation by 2^nd round rookie Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt might not be great as a rookie, but he’ll be an obvious upgrade over Hood, even if he struggles a little bit.

Steve McClendon will be their primary nose tackle this season. He’s graded out significantly above average in each of the last 3 seasons, though on only a combined 667 snaps. Last season, he played a career high 355 snaps and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked defensive tackle, including 25^th against the run. He’s purely a two-down run stopper, but he could have the biggest role of his career this season.

The only true every down defensive linemen the Steelers have is Cameron Heyward, a 2011 1^st round pick who played 845 snaps last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18^th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. Last year was his first year as a starter, but he showed well as a reserve on 198 snaps in 2011 and 267 snaps in 2012, before breaking out last year. The talented 5-technique could easily have another strong season next year. The Steelers picked up his 5^th year option for 2015. The quartet of Heyward, Tuitt, Thomas, and McClendon should play the vast majority of the snaps on the Steelers’ 3-man defensive line, but Nick Williams and Daniel McClullers could see action. The former is a 2013 7^th round pick 3-4 defensive end who didn’t play a snap as a rookie and the latter is a 6^th round rookie who is a pure nose tackle at 6-8 365.

Grade: B

Linebackers

With LaMarr Woodley gone, Jason Worilds becomes the de facto top edge rusher in Pittsburgh. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th 3-4 outside linebacker last season on 792 snaps. He had 8 sacks, 21 hits, and 21 hurries on 378 pass rush snaps, a rate of 13.2%. Woodley, meanwhile, graded out 10^th on 582 snaps last season, but was cut because his salary was too big, he was going into his age 30 season, he can’t stay healthy, and he wasn’t quite living up to his contract on the field. Woodley was also cut to make room for Worilds’ new salary as the Steelers will pay Worilds 9.754 million on the transition tag this season, though they’ve been unable to reach a long-term deal with him.

Worilds is still a one year wonder, after the 2010 2^nd round pick played a combined 979 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league, maxing out at 501 in 2011. However, he graded out above average 2 of those 3 seasons, so it’s definitely possible that the one-time highly rated prospect could continue this strong play into 2014. He’ll have to prove himself on a one-year deal, but he could command a lot of money in free agency this off-season if he repeats what he did last season, which would probably put him out of the cap strapped Steelers’ price range.

Opposite him, Jarvis Jones, the 17^th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, will have a bigger role in his 2^nd year in the league with Woodley gone, after playing 646 snaps as a rookie. Jones struggled as a rookie, particularly as a pass rusher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 42 eligible, but he could be better in his 2^nd year in the league. The issue is that the Steelers have no real depth at the position behind Worilds and Jones, so both will have to play a ton of snaps, which could really tire them out.

Chris Carter, a 2011 5^th round pick, has struggled on 235 snaps in 3 seasons in the league. Arthur Moats is a free agent acquisition who was a collegiate defensive end, but has largely played middle linebacker and 4-3 outside linebacker as a professional, maxing out at 401 snaps as a rookie. Jordan Zumwalt, meanwhile, is a 6^th round rookie who can play inside and outside in a 3-4. The Steelers may consider bringing back James Harrison on a one-year minimum deal, for his age 36 season. He’s not much of a pass rusher anymore, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker against the run last season on 383 snaps. The potential future Hall-of-Fame and long-time Steeler great has always excelled against the run.

The Steelers used a first round pick in this past draft on Ryan Shazier, taking him with the 15^th overall pick. He’ll replace Vince Williams, a 2013 6^th round pick, who struggled on 405 snaps in a base package role as a rookie. Shazier will play every down inside, which is something Williams didn’t do, as Troy Polamalu would often come down closer to the line of scrimmage and essentially play linebacker in sub packages. Now Polamalu can focus on being a pure safety going into his age 33 season and they won’t have to tap into their safety depth as much.

Shazier will line up opposite Lawrence Timmons inside. Timmons isn’t the same player he was in 2008-2010, when he graded out 5^th, 10^th, and 1^st respectively among middle linebackers in those 3 seasons, which got him a 5-year, 50 million dollar extension. However, since signing that extension, Timmons hasn’t been the same. He was 4^th in 2012, but he was also 28^th in 2011 and 25^th last season. Shazier’s arrival could signal that the cap strapped Steelers are going to cut him and his 7.5 million dollar salary for 2015 next off-season. As for this year, he’s only going into his age 28 season, so he could bounce back, but expecting him to be as good as he once was isn’t realistic.

Grade: B+

Secondary

As I mentioned, Troy Polamalu would often play linebacker in sub packages last season. He lined up within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage on 79.8% of his snaps last season, the highest percentage by a safety in the NFL. Polamalu will be a true safety this season, which should be a good thing because he’s probably their best coverage defensive back. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked safety last season, including 2^nd in coverage grade.

The issue is he’s going into his age 33 season and he’s always been injury prone. He played all 16 games last season, but only 7 the season before and he’s missed 22 games in the last 5 seasons combined. When he’s on the field, he’s great. I mentioned how well he played last season, but he was also Pro Football Focus’ 13^th ranked safety in 2012, despite being limited to 402 snaps in 7 games. He was Pro Football Focus’ #1 safety in 16 games in 2011 and #5 safety in 14 games in 2010. He’s graded out above average in every season dating back to 2007. However, he’s very injury prone and now, going into his age 33 season, it’s tough to know how much they can count on him.

With Polamalu now playing safety every down, Will Allen, the 3^rd safety, won’t play as many snaps as he did last season, when he graded out about average on 376 snaps in 13 games. Ryan Clark is gone, going into his age 35 season. Ryan Clark was still a solid starter last season, grading out middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus, but he was a far cry from his 2008-2012 form, a stretch in which he finished in the top-25 among safeties on Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons and maxed out at 9th in 2012.

It’s unclear if Michael Mitchell, who the Steelers gave a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal this off-season, can be an upgrade though. Mike Mitchell was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2009 based on his freakish athleticism (4.39 40 at 6-1 216), but he never really put it together in Oakland, playing an average of 394 snaps per season, maxing out at 508 snaps, and grading out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his last 3 seasons. He only played 334 snaps in 2012, his contract year, as a reserve and was forced to settle for a one year deal in Carolina worth about the veteran’s minimum.

He turned out to be a brilliant signing for Panthers GM Dave Gettleman as he became a 14-game starter (920 total snaps) at safety, a huge position of need for the Panthers, flashing often and showing his athleticism. He wasn’t spectacular, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked safety, slightly above average, and was a key part of a surprisingly good Carolina team, led by a stifling defense. This is the definition of buying high though. 12 months ago no one wanted Mitchell and now after one year he’s worth 5 million yearly? It’s not like he was incredible last year and much of his strong play was as a result of a dominant Carolina front in front of him, which, by the way, won’t be following him to Pittsburgh. Buy high deals like this rarely work out. The only good thing is the Steelers only guaranteed 6 million and one-year of his deal.

Polamalu is one of two remaining starters over 30 for the Steelers. The other is Ike Taylor, who is going into his age 34 season and coming off of an awful year in which his abilities seemingly just fell off a cliff. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 97^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible, and he was 105^th in pure coverage grade. He’s been better in the past, but he’s never really been fantastic. He could bounce back a little bit this year, but there’s a good chance that he’s just done. The Steelers slashed his salary to 2.75 million and this is the final year of his contract, so this could just be his final year with the Steelers, if not in the league.

Turner will be on a short leash and could end up being their 3^rd cornerback as they have a pair of solid cornerbacks. They don’t really have a 4^th cornerback who could take Taylor’s spot as the 3^rd cornerback if he continues to really struggle though. Those two solid cornerbacks are William Gay and Cortez Allen. Gay was the best of their cornerback trio last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked cornerback, playing on the slot in sub packages and outside in base packages. However, much of his strong grade was because he played the run so well. In terms of pure coverage grade, he was only 31^st at his position. Against the run, he was 3^rd at his position.

Gay doesn’t really have a history of dominant cornerback play either. His best year in the league was in 2008, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked cornerback, 16^th in pure coverage grade. He’s always been decent in Pittsburgh’s defensive system, grading out around average in 2009, 2010, and 2011, but he was awful in one year away from Pittsburgh in Arizona in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 105^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible. He could have another solid year in 2014, but I don’t expect him to play quite as well as he did last season.

Cortez Allen, meanwhile, is a 2011 4^th round pick going into his 4^th year in the league and his contract year. Allen barely played as a rookie, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked cornerback on 563 snaps in 2012 and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked cornerback on 718 snaps last season. This year, he could become an every down cornerback for the first time in his career and line up against opponent’s #1 receivers, like Ike Taylor used to. He could easily have a very solid year that would set him up for a good payday next off-season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

There’s talent here, but this is hardly the Steeler teams of old. I thought they were a playoff caliber team last season, but had some bad luck and missed out at 8-8. Now, I think they have less talent than they did last season, which is going to make getting back into the playoffs hard, even if their luck turns around. They’ll be in the mix for a wild card spot in the weaker AFC, but I don’t know if they’re going to make it. I’ll have an official prediction once I finish all teams’ previews.

Prediction: 3rd in AFC North

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Cleveland Browns 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 26, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Last season, the Browns had more All-Pros than wins, going 4-12, but having 5 players make either the All-Pro 1^st or 2^nd team, tied with the 49ers for most in the NFL. That might sound absurd, but it’s not. Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Joe Haden, and TJ Ward were all among the best in the NFL at their respective positions. In 2012, the Chiefs had 6 Pro-Bowlers, despite going 2-14 and, after adding a new starting quarterback and head coach, they went on to win 11 games the following season.

The Browns come into 2014 with a new starting quarterback and a new head coach, but things won’t necessarily work out the same way for the Browns. The Browns replaced a talented coordinator with little experience at head coach in Rob Chudzinski with a talented coordinator with little experience at head coach in Mike Pettine, which isn’t exactly the same thing as replacing the tried and failed Romeo Crennel with the proven Andy Reid.

Meanwhile, adding Johnny Manziel to the mix isn’t as perfect of a fit as adding Alex Smith to the mix was in Kansas City. The Chiefs’ biggest problem in 2012 was a -24 turnover margin, an issue that probably would have corrected itself largely either way, but adding a careful, conservative quarterback like Alex Smith helped the Chiefs go from -24 to +18 in turnover margin, as did a cakewalk schedule. Manziel should improve the Browns’ quarterback play, but they had more issues than just that. The turnover margin wasn’t a huge issue in Cleveland, where they had a -8 turnover margin last season.

Their biggest issue was that, in addition to all the great starters they had last season, they also had numerous players in significant roles that were terrible. Greg Little and Davone Bess played significant roles at wide receiver. Willis McGahee lead the team in carries. Buster Skrine and Craig Robertson were among the league’s worst at cornerback and middle linebacker respectively. Tashaun Gipson struggled mightily at safety and the combination of Shawn Lauvao and Oniel Cousins was horrific at right guard. And, of course, they had issues at quarterback, as they completed 55.7% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. Manziel could help that problem as a rookie, but he’s also just a rookie and whether or not they can become a significantly improved team this season will depend on how well they upgraded those other aforementioned spots as well.

I also do have to mention that Manziel is technically competing with Brian Hoyer for the starting job, but I think Manziel is easily the heavy favorite. Hoyer played decent in limited action, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.41 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, grading out slightly above average on Pro Football Focus. However, the 2010 undrafted free agent with 192 career attempts didn’t stay healthy long enough to establish himself as the starter and now he’s coming off a torn ACL. Better, more proven quarterbacks, Tom Brady, Robert Griffin, Carson Palmer, etc, have struggled in their first year back from a torn ACL.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Another thing that could be an issue for the Browns is that 2 of those 5 All-Pros from last season could easily not play a snap for the Browns this season. TJ Ward signed with the Broncos and Josh Gordon is likely facing a season long ban for marijuana. While the Browns made a solid attempt to replace TJ Ward, they made no such attempt to replace Gordon. Even though they knew of the potential ban long before the draft, they didn’t draft a single wide receiver.

Greg Little and Davone Bess are gone from the roster, which is good because they graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst and 4^th worst wide receivers respectively last season. However, there’s still not a lot of talent here. The Browns top three wide receivers this season should be a trio of players they brought in as free agents this off-season, Andrew Hawkins, Miles Austin, and Nate Burleson. Hawkins has the most upside as he’s the youngest, only going into his age 28 season.

Hawkins has flashed in 3 seasons with the Bengals since coming to them as an undrafted free agent in 2011, grading out above average in all 3 seasons and averaging 1.66 yards per route run in his career. However, he’s only run 598 routes in his career and caught 86 passes for 995 yards and 4 touchdowns. In the only season he got significant playing time, 2012, he caught 51 passes for 533 yards and 4 touchdowns on 384 routes run, 1.39 yards per route run. The Browns are hoping he’s a budding talent that was just buried on the depth chart in Cincinnati, giving him a 4-year, 13.6 million deal this off-season, but that might be wishful thinking. He could lead Browns wide receivers in receptions, but the 5-7 175 pounder might be purely a slot option.

Sadly, he’s probably their best wide receiver option. Nate Burleson is going into his age 33 season and coming off of a season in which he missed 7 games with a broken arm. He also suffered another broken arm this off-season, though he’s expected to be back for training camp. Still, he’s an aging, injury prone player who has missed 17 games in the last 2 seasons combined. He’s averaged just 1.31 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons combined, despite playing in an explosive pass offense in Detroit with plenty of opportunities against single coverage and plenty of opportunities to receive targets. The 2003 3^rd round pick and 11-year veteran could just be done.

Miles Austin is going into his age 30 season, so he’s not quite as old as Burleson, but he’s had a similar recent history of injury problems. Hamstring problems have caused him to miss 11 games over the past 3 seasons, limited him in countless others, and seemed to sap his abilities last year as he caught just 22 passes for 244 yards in 11 games and averaged 0.76 yards per route run in an explosive passing offense in Dallas. He was Pro Football Focus’ 101^st ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible in terms of pure pass catching grade last season.

When healthy, Austin can be a solid contributor. He played all 16 games in 2012, catching 66 passes for 943 yards and 6 touchdowns and recorded 1000 yard seasons in both 2009 and 2010. He’s still young enough that it’s conceivable he could have a few more good seasons if healthy, but that’s a big if. If he or any of the Browns’ projected top-3 wide receivers struggle, Travis Benjamin could have a significant role. The 2012 4^th round pick has averaged 1.26 yards per route run on 320 routes run in 2 seasons in the league and is coming off of a torn ACL. He’ll be most valuable as a return man.

Given their issues at wide receiver, expect Jordan Cameron to lead the team in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Cameron didn’t make either All-Pro team last season, but he was a Pro-Bowler and rightfully so. Cameron broke out in his 3^rd year in the league, after being drafted in the 4^th round in 2011, catching 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns on 622 routes run, an average of 1.47 yards per route run. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked tight end in pass catching grade, though he struggled mightily as a run blocker, grading out 9^th worst at his position in that aspect.

Cameron was drafted as a high upside, boom or bust mid-rounder out of USC. After struggling on a combined 398 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, Cameron broke out last year, largely as a result of tight end genius Rob Chudzinski. Chudzinski is gone and Cameron did get a lot of his production from being a volume receiver, getting the 3^rd most targets by a tight end with 109 last season. The Browns should pass significantly fewer than 681 times this season with a running quarterback and a new run first offense coming in, which will hurt Cameron’s production. However, he should still be their best receiver. The Browns are hoping that Manziel and Cameron will function like Michael Vick and Alge Crumpler did early in their careers, though Cameron isn’t the same caliber of blocker. Meanwhile, Gary Barnidge will once again be the blocking tight end. The veteran graded out below average on 543 snaps last season.

Grade: C

Running Backs

As I mentioned, Willis McGahee led the Browns in carries last season, rushing for 377 yards and 2 touchdowns on 138 carries, a pathetic 2.73 yards per carry average. He broke just 12 tackles on 146 touches and averaged just 1.76 yards per carry after contact. His longest run was for 16 yards. The Browns still rushed for 3.97 yards per carry as a team, but that’s not very good and even that was largely the result of trick plays and quarterback runs, things that are hard to rely on.

Fortunately, the Browns should be better in this aspect this season, which they needed to be. For one, Johnny Manziel comes in, which helps their running game in two ways. Manziel will probably be able to accumulate a solid amount of rushing yards as a rookie, even if the mobile quarterback struggles as a passer in his first year in the league. Also, his presence and his ability to take off at any time will force the defense to use a spy more often, which will help the rest of their running game.

On top of that, the Browns added Ben Tate this off-season. Ben Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Upon his return from that injury, Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.26 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. Staying healthy will be the key to him potentially having a breakout year. The Browns used a 3^rd round pick on Terrance West as insurance and he could have a significant role as a rookie in a run heavy offense behind an injury prone starter.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the Browns had a serious issue at right guard last season. Oniel Cousins started the first 5 games of the season, but struggled mightily on just 322 snaps played, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 71^st ranked guard out of 81 eligible. No one played fewer snaps and graded out lower. Shawn Lauvao then took over for the other 11 starts and wasn’t much better, grading out 70^th out of 81 eligible on 771 snaps. In an effort to solve the problem, the Browns used a 2^nd round pick on Joel Bitonio, who will be a day 1 starter. He might not be great as a rookie, but he should be an upgrade over what they had last season, both of whom are no longer with the team.

Other than right guard, the Browns had one of the best offensive lines in the league last season, particularly in pass protection, as they graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked pass blocking team. They ranked 21^st in run blocking, but that was largely because of the right guard position and their tight ends’ inability to run block. Joe Thomas and Alex Mack both were All-Pros last season and both are among the top players at their respective positions.

Mack was re-signed this off-season to a 5-year, 42 million dollar deal, which made him the league’s highest paid center in average salary before Maurkice Pouncey of the Steelers got a bigger extension this off-season. It’s a lot of money for a center, but it’s hard to argue that Mack wasn’t worth it, as he’s arguably the top center in the NFL. He’s graded out as a top-10 center in each of his 5 seasons in the NFL since being drafted in the first round by the Browns in 2009, maxing out at 4^th overall last season. Only Chris Myers has also been in the top-10 in centers in all 5 of those seasons. Mack is also at the peak of his career, going into his age 29 season, coming off of a career year.

While Mack might be the top center in the NFL, Joe Thomas definitely is the top left tackle in the NFL. Joe Thomas has been a top-8 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in every season since he was drafted 3^rd overall in 2007, something no one else can come close to saying. He maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 offensive tackle in 2009. He’s also never missed a game over 112 career starts. He especially excels in pass protection, which is more important than run blocking. Last season, he graded out 2^nd overall at his position, but 1^st in pass protection by a sizeable margin.

The Browns are solid at the other two offensive line spots as well, with Mitchell Schwartz at right tackle and John Greco at the other guard spot. There was talk that Schwartz would be moved to right guard this season, if the Browns drafted a right tackle in the first round, but they opted to take Bitonio to play guard in the 2^nd round and keep Schwartz at right tackle. That’s definitely an acceptable option. Schwartz graded out above average last season at right tackle and, while he wasn’t as good as he was as a rookie, when the 2012 2^nd round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 21^st ranked offensive tackle, he was still 30^th at his position and he could easily have a bounce back year this season. He could also easily have the best season of his career this season, his 3^rd in the league and his age 25 season.

At the other guard spot, John Greco is coming off of his first full season as a starter. He’s graded out above average in every season in his career since he was drafted in the 3^rd round in 2008, doing so on a combined 658 snaps from 2008-2011 and then making 10 starts and playing 714 snaps in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 19^th ranked guard. He wasn’t quite as good as a 14 game starter in 2013 (missing 2 with injury), but he still graded out above average. The Browns gave him a forward thinking 5-year, 13.2 million dollar deal before last season and have a starting caliber guard locked up at a very reasonable rate through 2017. His natural position is right guard, so the Browns could move him back there and flip Bitonio over to the left side. Overall, it’s a strong offensive line that got stronger this off-season, by drafting a player in the 2^nd round to fill its only hole.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

The Browns didn’t have any All-Pros in the front 7 last season, but their front 7 is still one of the better ones in the NFL, particularly their 3-man defensive line and their edge rushers. Things could be even better now with Mike Pettine coming over from Buffalo. Pettine coordinated one of the better defense’s in the league, with their strength being in the front 7, in Buffalo last season as they ranked 6^th in rate of moving the chains allowed, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.58% rate. They also ranked 2^nd in the league in both sacks and interceptions as their pass rush tormented opposing quarterbacks. The Browns were 18^th in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71.71% rate last season, but they should be better than that this season, thanks to the addition of Pettine and some other off-season moves.

The Browns have a lot of talented depth on the defensive line and use a rotation of 5 different guys on their 3-man defensive line. Phil Taylor is the only one who can play the true nose tackle position, but the 6-3 355 pounder moves well for his size and does sometimes stay on the field for sub packages. The 2011 1^st round pick struggled as a rookie and then only played 273 snaps in 2012 because of injury, but he had easily the best season of his career in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked defensive tackle on 555 snaps, including 14^th as a run stopper. The Browns picked up his 5^th year option for 2015 and he should have another solid season, particularly as a run stopper, again in 2014.

Desmond Bryant should lead this defensive line in snaps played this season. He only played 588 snaps last season, but that’s because he missed 4 games with injury. He had a disappointing first season in Cleveland ended by an irregular heartbeat, but that problem seems behind him now. He graded out slightly below average when he was on the field last season, but he could easily bounce back in 2014. The 2009 undrafted free agent graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked defensive tackle in 2012 and graded out above average in 2010 and 2011 as a rotational player at both defensive tackle and defensive end. Last season was the first year he had ever played 3-4 defensive end, but considering his experience at both 4-3 defensive tackle and 4-3 defensive end and his size at 6-5 280, he should be a natural fit. He’s probably their best interior pass rusher when he’s healthy and right.

Ahtyba Rubin led their defensive line in snaps played last season, but I think he should have a reduced role this season. Rubin did grade above average as Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked 3-4 defensive end, but, while he graded out 12^th at his position in run stopping grade, he graded out 2^nd worst at his position in pass rush grade. This is nothing new, as he graded out above average as a run stopper and below average as a pass rusher in 2012 as well. He should only be a pure base defensive end this season and focus on his strength, stopping the run.

That would allow talented reserves John Hughes and Billy Winn to play bigger roles this season. John Hughes graded out best among all of their defensive linemen, even though he only played 402 snaps. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11st ranked 3-4 defensive end, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He excelled as a run stopper, grading out 7^th at his position in that aspect. The 2012 3^rd round pick is still a one year wonder as he struggled mightily on 530 snaps and there’s no guarantee he can be as efficient next season as he was in 2013 in a larger role, but they need to give him more snaps, going into his 3^rd season in the league, even if it’s only in the 500 range. Billy Winn, meanwhile, was a 6^th round pick in 2012. He graded out about average on 721 snaps as a rookie and then above average on 313 snaps last season. He’ll play a valuable rotational role again next season on this deep defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Browns also have a trio of 3-4 outside linebackers that rotate with Jabaal Sheard, Paul Kruger, and Barkevious Mingo. Sheard has been with the team since they drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2011. Paul Kruger was signed to a big 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season. Barkevious Mingo was the 6^th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Sheard was the best of the bunch last season in his first season in a 3-4, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. He graded out slightly below average as an every down 4-3 defensive end in 2011 and slightly below average in that same role in 2012, before a breakout 3^rd year in the league in 2013.

Paul Kruger was the opposite starter last season. He was overpaid on that 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season. Kruger had a strong 2012 season, especially in the 2^nd half of the season and the post-season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012, excelling as a pass rusher, grading out 4^th in that aspect. He then had a dominant post-season, particularly as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 5 hits, and 10 hurries on 148 pass rush snaps, a 13.5% rate.

However, he was just a one-year wonder, which is why he didn’t deserve that deal. He played just 724 snaps combined in 2009-2011, after being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2009, and only graded out above average in one of those seasons. He wasn’t awful in his first season in Cleveland, grading out above average, but he wasn’t what they expected. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, slightly above average. Expect more of the same from him this season.

Meanwhile, the Browns drafted Barkevious Mingo 6^th overall in 2013 even though they already had Kruger and Sheard. It was a luxury pick and one that didn’t really work out last season as Mingo graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 38^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 42 eligible on 668 snaps. He could be better in 2013, in his 2^nd year in the league, but don’t expect him to have much of a bigger role. He’ll be a heavy rotational player at best as long as Kruger and Sheard are in the fold.

I mentioned, as much talent as the Browns have in the front 7, they didn’t have an All-Pro last season, but they did sign one this off-season, bringing over Karlos Dansby from Arizona. I mentioned Craig Robertson at middle linebacker as one of the starters they had to upgrade and rightfully so, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked middle linebacker last off-season, especially struggling in coverage, grading out dead last in that aspect and allowing separate 100+ yard receiving games to two different running backs, Reggie Bush and Shane Vereen. The 2011 undrafted free agent also graded out below average in 2012, the only other season in which he played defensive snaps.

However, the Browns found themselves in need of two new starters at middle linebacker when they cut D’Qwell Jackson this off-season. That was a smart move because Jackson wasn’t worth his salary and the Browns saved 5.23 million on the cap by cutting him. Going into his age 31 season, D’Qwell Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 42^nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season and 41^st out of 53 eligible in 2012. The Browns then used that freed up cap space and signed Dansby to a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal, which was a very good move.

This was a fairly strong free agent class overall, but the one position where it was weak was at middle linebacker. Middle linebacker in general was a weak position in the NFL last season, as only 16 of 55 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus graded out positively last season. Karlos Dansby was, by far, the best of the free agent middle linebackers and Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season. Dansby might never have another year as good as last season again, as he’s going into his age 33 season, and as he had never been a top-10 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus prior to last season, but he graded out 12th in 2010, 11th in 2011, and 13th in 2012.

Dansby should still have a strong season and be an upgrade over Jackson. Meanwhile, the Browns drafted Christian Kirksey in the 3^rd round to compete with Robertson for the other starting job. He might not be better than him as a rookie, but he also could easily be better than him, even if only by default. At the very least, the athletic Kirksey will play a situational role as a coverage linebacker, as coverage is his strength and Robertson’s weakness.

Grade: B+

Cornerback

Another spot the Browns desperately needed to upgrade was the other cornerback spot opposite Joe Haden, where Buster Skrine played last season. Skrine somehow managed to lead all cornerbacks in both tackles missed (20) and touchdowns allowed (9) last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 106^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. The 2011 5^th round pick has graded out below average in each of the 3 seasons he’s been in the league.

Having a cornerback as poor as him opposite Joe Haden makes having Haden less valuable because opposing quarterbacks can just throw away from the dominant Haden with ease. Skrine will be replaced in the starting lineup by Justin Gilbert, who the Browns drafted 8^th overall. Gilbert is a talented cornerback and, while cornerbacks do take a year or so to get adjusted to the NFL, he should be an immediate upgrade over Skrine.

The Browns also drafted Pierre Desir in the 4^th round. Buster Skrine may still see some action as the slot cornerback, but he could also be as far down on the depth chart as 5^th, which would put him on the roster bubble. Skrine is in a 3-way battle for the slot cornerback job, a spot manned last season by Chris Owens, who did a solid job, grading out slightly above average. Leon McFadden, a 2013 3^rd round pick, seems like the favorite for that job and Desir is in the mix as well. McFadden struggled mightily on 247 snaps as a rookie last season, but could be better this season. They could easily see inferior play to Owens’ at that spot though.

As for Joe Haden, he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and he was a deserving All-Pro last season. The Browns did overpay him on a 5-year, 68 million dollar extension this off-season though. Joe Haden is a terrific cornerback, but I don’t think he’s quite at the level of deserving what Richard Sherman got (4-year, 56 million). I think Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis are the top cornerbacks in the NFL and there’s a big gap between them and the rest of the league. In 3 years in the NFL, Richard Sherman has allowed 115 of 248 (46.4%) for 1621 yards (6.54 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, while deflecting 34 passes and committing 26 penalties. Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis has allowed 43.1% completion, 5.41 YPA, and 12 touchdowns, while picking off 20 passes, since 2008.

In 4 years in the league, Joe Haden has allowed 179 of 331 (54.1%) for 2250 yards (6.80 YPA), 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while deflecting 50 passes and committing 21 penalties. That’s very impressive, but it’s not at the same level as Sherman or Revis. Revis has graded out among Pro Football Focus’ top-3 cornerbacks in 4 of his last 5 healthy seasons. Meanwhile, Richard Sherman has graded out 2^nd and 6^th in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Joe Haden has never graded out higher than 6th in 4 seasons, doing so in his rookie year in 2010, and he came in 13th, 20th, and 18th in the last 3 seasons respectively. That’s still very impressive, especially considering the volatility of the cornerback position. He’s been one of Pro Football Focus’ top-20 cornerbacks in each of the last 4 seasons, something only the supremely underrated Jason McCourty can also say (Revis missed 2012 with injury and Sherman was still in college in 2010). Haden might be the #3 cornerback in the NFL and he’s definitely top-5, but he was overpaid a little bit.

The Browns lost an All-Pro at safety this off-season, as TJ Ward signed with the Broncos. He might be the top box safety in the NFL. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He was also 13th in 2011, despite missing 8 games with injury. That was really his only injury plagued season as he missed 2 games in his other 3 seasons combined, playing 54 games in 4 seasons, starting each of them and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010.

The Browns replaced him with Donte Whitner this off-season, a downgrade, but still a solid player. He is an inconsistent player who graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus in each season from 2007-2010 in Buffalo and who allowed 12 touchdowns in regular season and post-season combined in 2012 on a 49ers team that allowed just 26 total passing touchdowns in the regular season and post-season combined. However, he graded out 8th among safeties in 2011 and 6^th among safeties in 2013. He seemed to fix his coverage problems last season, grading out 5^th in that aspect, and we’ll see if that continues. He’s an above average player and an asset, even if he is a downgrade.

The Browns also needed to upgrade the other safety spot, as Tashaun Gipson struggled last season, but they didn’t get around to that. He was Pro Football Focus’ 68^th ranked safety out of 86 eligible last season in his first season as a starter. The 2012 undrafted free agent played 377 nondescript snaps in 2012 as a rookie. He could be better in his 3^rd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. That other safety spot should continue to be a position of weakness.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Browns desperately needed to upgrade two wide receiver spots, the running back spot, the quarterback spot, one guard spot, one middle linebacker spot, one safety spot, and one cornerback spot this off-season. They drafted a quarterback and a cornerback in the first round, a guard in the 2^nd round, and a middle linebacker in the 3^rd round so they have some young talent in the mix. They also drafted a running back in the 3^rd round and brought in Ben Tate to be the starter. On top of that, they upgraded D’Qwell Jackson with Karlos Dansby.

However, they didn’t upgrade the wide receiver spots well or the safety spot at all and I don’t know how much they can rely on their rookies. They also downgraded TJ Ward to Donte Whitner and have likely lost Josh Gordon to a season long suspension. They also had very few injuries last season, the 5^th fewest adjusted games lost, something they probably won’t be able to rely on this season. Their depth will be tested this year more than it was last season.

Still, I think in terms of non-quarterback talent, they are one of the top-15, maybe even top-10 teams in the NFL. Whether or not they can break into the playoffs will depend on how Johnny Manziel plays at quarterback as a rookie (or, technically how Brian Hoyer plays if he somehow wins the starting job). I’d feel more confident in him if I was confident in his weapons, but Josh Gordon getting suspended likely for the season really hurts. They’ll be an improved team this season, but I don’t have them in the playoffs, even if, overall, they have a playoff caliber supporting cast. I’ll have an official wins prediction for them after I do all the previews.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in AFC North

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Baltimore Ravens 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 26, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Ravens made a post-season run in 2012 and won the Super Bowl, but they were still a flawed team, something that really showed in the regular season, when they went 10-6, tied for the worst record among playoff qualifiers. They finished the regular season 13^th in offensive DVOA and 19^th defensive DVOA. That was why I wasn’t concerned that they went through such a transformation last off-season. I thought the Ravens would be a better team in 2013 than they were in 2012, at least in the regular season.

Washed up veterans like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis were replaced with 1^st and 2^nd round picks Matt Elam and Arthur Brown. One year wonders like Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger took more money else and were replaced with cheaper, proven veterans Daryl Smith and Elvis Dumervil. Terrell Suggs and Lardarius Webb were coming back from injury. Bernard Pollard was gone, but he was replaced with Michael Huff, who seemed comparable. Offensively, the losses of Anquan Boldin and Matt Birk would hurt, but I thought that Joe Flacco would maintain some of his gains from the 2013 off-season because his own development and because he’d have Bryant McKinnie at left tackle and Jim Caldwell at offensive coordinator for the full season, two things to which I attributed some of his 2013 post-season success.

I was half right. The Ravens were an improved defensive team for a number of the reasons I outlined above. In fact, they were one of the best defensive teams in the league, finishing 7^th in DVOA and 2^nd in rate of moving the chains, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 65.97% rate. However, their offense was terrible, ranking 30^th in both DVOA and rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 65.38% rate. As a result, they went 8-8, missed the playoffs and finished 17^th in rate of moving the chains differential at -0.59%.

Joe Flacco was pretty consistently a slightly above average quarterback in the first 5 seasons of his career from 2008-2012. His QB rating had always fallen between 80.3 and 93.6. His completion percentages had always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs had always fallen between 6.66 and 7.41. His touchdowns had always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions had always fallen between 10 and 12. He then had a fantastic post-season in 2012, en route to that Super Bowl, completing 57.9% of his passes for an average of 9.05 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

He followed that up with the worst season of his career in 2013, completing 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, easily a career worst QB rating of 73.1. Part of it was his fault, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible, but he really didn’t have much help. The losses of Anquan Boldin and Matt Birk really hurt him and neither left tackle Bryant McKinnie nor offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell proved reliable over the course of an entire season. The Ravens’ once strong running game also went way downhill, as both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce struggled mightily and they averaged just 3.14 yards per carry, the worst in the league. The Ravens have attempted to fix their offense this season in a variety of ways, in an attempt to get back into the playoffs.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight End

The biggest move the Ravens made to help their offense was signing Steve Smith to a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal. Smith is a big name, but he’s towards the end of his career. He’s unlikely to be the adequate Anquan Boldin replacement they are expecting him to be. Steve Smith had 64 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. Excluding the Jimmy Clausen season and his injury plagued 2004 season, those were his worst since his rookie year in 2001.

That’s just what happens to receivers this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Steve Smith is 19th in all-time receiving yards yardage, but he’s also going into his age 35 season. There’s a reason why the Panthers released him even though he still had guaranteed money left on his deal and even though they were thin at wide receiver. Steve Smith has had a great career, but there’s a chance he just falls off a cliff in terms of his abilities in his age 35 season.

He’ll line up as the starter opposite Torrey Smith. Smith appeared to have a breakout year last season in his 3^rd year in the league after being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011, catching 65 passes for 1128 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s a fairly incomplete volume wide receiver who wasn’t as good as his stats suggested last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 60^th ranked wide receiver last season. He only caught 51.2% of his targets (65 catches on 127 targets) and only caught 39 passes on balls that went 10 or fewer yards through the air, 71^st most in the NFL. He’s pretty much just a deep threat who was overstretched last season.

He’d be best off with another talented option opposite him, but the Ravens don’t have that right now. He only caught 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012 with Anquan Boldin opposite him, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 45^th ranked wide receiver. He’ll catch more passes in the Ravens’ new west coast offense under Gary Kubiak, but he’s not an ideal fit for the offense because of his limited route running ability. It’s possible he develops more this season, only going into his age 25 season, in the contract year of his 4-year rookie deal.

Marlon Brown will be the 3^rd receiver this year after being the de facto #2 wide receiver last season. He’s not great, so in that sense it’s good that he’s not playing as much, but he still might be better than the declining Smith. He caught 49 passes for 524 yards and 7 touchdowns on 518 routes run, an average of 1.01 yards per route run (84^th out of 94 eligible wide receivers) as an undrafted free agent rookie last year. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. Jacoby Jones is a veteran depth option. He’s been given chances, but he’s never caught more than 51 passes for 562 yards in a season, including 37 catches for 455 yards and 2 touchdowns last season. He’s a pretty marginal receiver at best. He provides the most value on special teams as a return man.

The biggest “addition” for the Ravens offensively should be a healthy Dennis Pitta. Pitta missed 12 games with a hip problem last off-season and was limited upon his return. Still, he caught 20 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown in 4 seasons, which extrapolates to 80 catches for 716 yards and 4 touchdowns over 16 games. He did that on 128 routes run, an average of 1.32 yards per route run. He caught a lot of passes in those 4 games, but showed little explosiveness.

Now he should be completely healthy, only going into his age 29 season, and going into a system under Gary Kubiak that benefits tight ends. The Ravens obviously believe in him, giving him a 5-year, 32.5 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season. He’s never had more than 61 catches for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns in a season, which he did in 2012, when he averaged 1.69 yards per route run and graded out as Pro Football Focus 24^th ranked tight end, 8^th in pass catching grade. He could easily lead this team in catches this season. He’ll be an obvious upgrade over Dallas Clark, who played his role last season and who has since retired. The only issue is Pitta isn’t much of a blocker at 6-4 245.

The Ravens will use a bunch of two-tight end sets this season under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. In order to do that, Gary Kubiak brought Owen Daniels over with him from Houston, where Kubiak was the head coach for 8 seasons. Daniels’ best years are behind him, as he goes into his age 32 season, and he can’t seem to stay healthy, which is why the Texans cut him, rather than paying him 4.5 million in his contract year.

Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008, missed 11 games last season, and has missed 26 games over the past 5 seasons combined. He averaged just 1.21 yards per route run last season and he’s not much of a blocker, but he averaged 1.63 yards per route run in 2012 and 1.64 yards per route run in 2011. He’ll be an upgrade over Ed Dickson, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ dead last ranked tight end last season, leading the team in snaps played by a tight end with 658. The Ravens also used a 3^rd round pick on Crockett Gillmore, a tight end out of Colorado State, though he doesn’t figure to have much of a role as a rookie. Overall, there’s more talent in the receiving corps than last year with Pitta healthy and Dickson gone, but the Steve Smith signing probably won’t work out and there are still a lot of issues.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Ravens brought in Gary Kubiak to be their offensive coordinator this off-season, after losing Caldwell to the Lions, where he will be the new head coach. Caldwell might help the Lions, but his absence is unlikely to hurt the Ravens, considering how bad they were last season on that side of the ball. It was a strange hire by the Lions. Kubiak, meanwhile, could easily help the Ravens in two areas they need it badly, on the offensive line and with their running game. A strong offensive line and running game were always the staple of the Kubiak’s Houston teams, even last season when the team struggled.

The Ravens really struggled last season upfront, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked offensive line in pass protection and their 27^th ranked offensive line in run blocking. They lost Michael Oher to free agency at right tackle, which could be addition by subtraction considering how much he struggled last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 68^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. However, they really don’t have a suitable replacement as 2013 5^th round pick Ricky Wagner is currently penciled in as the starter. He played 131 nondescript snaps last season as a rookie.

One option could be to move Kelechi Osemele back to right tackle from left guard and play either Jah Reid or Will Rackley at left guard, in attempt to find some sort of fix upfront. Reid and Rackley were both 3^rd round picks in 2011, Reid by the Ravens and Rackley by the Jaguars, and both have struggled thus far in their career. Reid has struggled on 644 snaps in 3 seasons, while Rackley graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst guard in 2011 as a starter and 3^rd worst guard in 2013 as a starter, with an entire season spent on injured reserve in between. If either of them has to see significant action, it’s a problem.

If Kelechi Osemele comes back healthy this season, it’ll be a big boost for them. Osemele, a 2012 2^nd round pick, graded out above average at right tackle in the regular season as a rookie and above average at left guard in the post-season as a rookie. He struggled at left guard last season before going on injured reserve with a nagging back problem that probably slowed him down and caused his struggled, which forced AQ Shipley on to the field, where he graded out 66^th out of 81 eligible guards last season. Osemele is a versatile and talented young offensive lineman, but you always have to be worried with back problems.

Another thing that should be a big boost to them is the addition of Jeremy Zuttah at center, who they acquired from Tampa Bay for a 5^th round pick and then gave a restructured 5-year, 18 million dollar deal with 6.5 million guaranteed. You can question how much they gave up for him in terms of draft pick compensation and financial compensation, but you can’t question that he’ll be better than Gino Gradkowski was last season, as the 2012 4^th round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst center in his first full season as a starter, taking over for the retired Matt Birk.

He and AQ Shipley/Kelechi Osemele with a bad back made a terrible duo on the left side of the interior offensive line, particularly in opening up holes on the ground, which is a big part of the reason why they were so ineffective running the football. A healthy Osemele and Zuttah, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked center out of 35 eligible last season and who has graded out about average in each of the last 4 seasons at both guard and center, will help things on the ground, especially if Gary Kubiak’s tutelage is able to bring the best out of them.

The Ravens best offensive lineman will continue to be Eugene Monroe, who the Ravens acquired from the Jaguars mid-season last year and to whom they gave a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal this off-season. Monroe’s presence couldn’t save the offensive line last season, but it did make things better. Monroe has been a top-16 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out as #6 in 2011. He graded out 16th overall this season, but playing even better once he was traded to Baltimore. The Baltimore “version” of Monroe was the #12 offensive tackle this season. Even if we use his composite grade for the 2013 season, Monroe is still one of just 4 offensive tackles to grade out in the top-16 on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons (Joe Thomas, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth). He’s one of the better blindside protectors in the game and the Ravens got him on a great deal.

The Ravens also have a talented starter locked in at right guard in Marshal Yanda. Yanda had a down season last season, which was unfortunate because the Ravens really could have used his best, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked guard. Yanda has played right tackle and right guard in his career. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked guard in 2012 and their 3^rd ranked guard in 2011. At right tackle, he ranked 6^th in 2010 and 5^th in 2007 as a 3^rd round rookie.

In 2008, he played right guard and only played in 5 games because of injury, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 24^th ranked guard despite playing just 350 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out higher. In 2009, he was limited to 405 snaps and 7 starts at right guard because of some limited time at right tackle, where he played well, and some more injuries, but he still graded out 17^th at his position, with no one grading out higher than him and playing fewer snaps.

Maybe moving him to right tackle wouldn’t be a bad idea considering it is a more valuable position, but the Ravens don’t seem to be considering that because of how good Yanda has been at right guard over the past 3 seasons. Going into his age 30 season, Yanda has a very good chance of bouncing back from his “down” season. It’s an improved offensive line for the Ravens, with Osemele coming back, Zuttah coming in, and Kubiak taking over, but there are still some issues, particularly at right tackle. The terrible trio of Oher, Shipley, and Gradkowski shouldn’t be much of any issue this season though.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

An improved offensive line should help their running game, but they’ll also have to run better. It’ll be hard for them to run worse than they did last season, when they averaged 3.14 yards per carry, so they’ll be better by default, but they obviously will want to be a lot better. In 2012, they averaged 4.28 yards per carry. A return to that kind of form would obviously be helpful. A return to that kind of form would require a return to form from one-time star running back Ray Rice.

From 2009-2012, Rice averaged 277 carries for 1267 yards and 8 touchdowns and 70 catches for 610 yards and 2 touchdowns per season, an average of 4.57 yards per carry. The well-rounded feature back graded out as a top-10 running back in 3 of those 4 seasons, with the exclusion of 2010. However, in 2013, he rushed for 660 yards and 4 touchdowns on 214 carries (3.08 YPC) and caught 58 passes for 321 yards, showing a lack of explosiveness all around and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst running back. He broke 13 tackles on 272 touches and averaged 1.52 yards per carry after contact, giving him easily the league’s worst elusive rating.

Rice isn’t over the hill, only going into his age 27 season and his struggles last year are being attributed to overwork over the previous 4 seasons (1387 touches), a nagging hip injury, and him being overweight. He says the hip injury is behind him and he’s slimmed down this off-season and he’s been looking better in practice so a bounce back year isn’t out of the question, especially with a better offensive line and a new offensive system in place. However, he’s expected to face some sort of suspension for his alleged involvement in the assault of his now wife this off-season. That could hurt his chances at a bounce back year.

The player who can take the most advantage of Rice’s potential suspension is Bernard Pierce. Pierce, a 2012 3^rd round pick, proved to be very valuable as a rookie en route to a Super Bowl victory, totaling 734 yards and a touchdown on 140 carries across the regular season and post-season, an average of 5.24 yards per carry. However, thanks to the blocking, an injury of his own, and his own struggles, Pierce averaged just 2.87 yards per carry last season and was unable to take advantage of a struggling Rice. He had a better elusive rating and graded out higher on Pro Football Focus than Rice though so more of his struggles can be attributed to the blocking.

Healthier, in a new system in his 3^rd year in the league, Pierce could have a bounce back year. If he impresses as the feature back in Rice’s absence, he could remain in that role. Lorenzo Taliaferro was drafted in the 4^th round to be insurance for both of them. There are still obviously questions about whether or not they can get back to 2012 form on the ground, but the arrow is pointing up, even if only by default, so they should be better on the ground.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the Ravens’ defense was by far their better unit last season and one of the best defenses in the NFL. In spite of that, the Ravens still used their first three draft picks on defensive players. Timmy Jernigan was drafted in the 2nd round to replace to Arthur Jones, who signed as a free agent in Indianapolis this off-season. A 2010 5th round pick, Arthur Jones developed from a solid reserve in 2011 on 255 snaps to a solid starter on 536 snaps to a breakout player in 2013 on 530 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end.

He was overpaid though, getting 33 million over 5 years with 16 million guaranteed. At his best, he’s worth that kind of money, but he’s still just a one year wonder at this point in his career. There’s no guarantee he’ll continue to be this good. He’s never played more than 536 snaps in a season and he’s never been the key cog on Baltimore’s defensive line, rotating often and playing alongside Haloti Ngata. The Ravens had solid defensive line depth even after losing Jones and adding Jernigan to the mix makes things even better. Jernigan should play a fairly significant role as a rookie, playing 3-4 defensive end in base packages and 4-3 defensive tackle in sub packages.

The aforementioned Ngata should lead this defensive line in snaps played for the 5^th straight season this year, playing at 3-4 nose tackle, 3-4 defensive end, and 4-3 defensive tackle. He played 714 snaps last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 18^th ranked defensive tackle. He’s graded in the top-18 among either defensive tackles or 3-4 defensive ends in each of the last 7 seasons, dating back to 2007. He maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked defensive tackle in 2010 and 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2007. He’s primarily a run stopper at 6-4 340, but moves well for his size and generates some pass rush.

Brandon Williams, a 2013 3^rd round pick, will have a bigger role this season after impressing on 93 snaps as a rookie. He’ll work primarily as a two-down player and can play both nose tackle and 3-4 defensive end in base packages. The 6-1 335 pounder is primarily a run stopper, but moves well for his size and got some Dontari Poe-lite comparisons in the pre-draft process. Chris Canty will also play a significant role again this season, after playing 579 snaps last season.

Going into his age 32 season, Canty’s best days are behind him, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. The versatile 6-7 295 pounder is capable of playing 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end and is equally good as a run stopper and a pass rusher. He’s graded out above average in 6 of the last 7 seasons, including each of the last 4 seasons. He’s only played 879 snaps in the last 2 seasons combined and he’s getting up there in age, but he still should be an asset and an above average contributor in a rotational role, as a versatile defensive lineman capable of playing in any situation. The quartet of Ngata, Canty, Jernigan, and Williams will play most of the snaps on the 3-man defensive line this season and on the interior defensive line in sub packages.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Ravens play a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense with a lot of 4-3 looks in sub packages, so edge rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will play a fair amount of defensive end in pass rush situations. Dumervil had a fantastic year last year. He only was a part-time player, playing 574 snaps, 332 pass rush snaps, 176 run snaps, and 66 coverage snaps, but he was an incredibly efficient pass rusher. He had 10 sacks, 11 hits, and 40 hurries on 332 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 18.4%. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season, with no one grading out higher and playing fewer snaps. He was also #1 at the position in pure pass rush grade.

Signing him to a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season was a very shrewd move by the Ravens. He was only a league average 4-3 defensive end in 2011 and 2012 with the Broncos, but, the last time he was in a system in which he didn’t have to play pure defensive end, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th best 3-4 outside linebacker in terms of pure pass rush grade, back in 2009. He’s never been a good run player no matter what system he’s played in, but he can get after the quarterback in the Ravens’ system and he serves an incredibly valuable part-time role for them as a result.

Courtney Upshaw plays the base outside linebacker role, actually playing more snaps last season than Dumervil did, playing 650. He didn’t fare well, grading out below average as both a pass rusher and a run stopper and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 42 eligible overall. He was better as a rookie in 2012, when the 2^nd round pick graded out slightly above average. He sucked as a pass rusher, grading out 2^nd worst at his position in that aspect, but he exceled as a run stopper, grading out 2^nd best at his position in that aspect. He’s had weight issues in his career, with his weight sometimes ballooning into the 290s, but, as long as he’s in despite shape, he should be alright as a part-time run stopping linebacker in a role that’s far less important than Dumervil’s.

Terrell Suggs will continue to play every down on the other side in that hybrid rush linebacker/defensive end role. Suggs restructured his contract this off-season, coming off of a down year, but it was still a 5-year, 28.5 million dollar deal with 16 million guaranteed. He still had a good year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out average as a pass rusher and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, but he wasn’t as good he was previously was, when he was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011 and #7 ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2010. He’s now going into his age 32 season, so his best days are probably behind him, and he could have ruined his body playing through two serious injuries in 2012, when graded out below average. He should still be an asset though.

I mentioned earlier that the Ravens used their first 3 draft picks on defensive players, despite their defensive dominance last year. Their first round pick was on middle linebacker CJ Mosley out of Alabama, drafted 17^th overall. It was a bit of a weird pick because the Ravens had just re-signed Daryl Smith to a 4-year deal worth up to 16.1 million and they also had Arthur Brown, a 2013 2^nd round pick, waiting in the wings ready for a bigger role and Josh Bynes, who flashed in a part-time role in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked middle linebacker on 465 snaps played.

Still, Mosley will immediately play every down at middle linebacker next to Smith, with Brown and Bynes working as backups. Smith is deserving of his new contract. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked middle linebacker last season, after the Ravens signed him to a cheap one-year deal late last off-season. The reason he was available so late in the off-season was because he missed 14 games and only played 117 snaps the previous season because of injury. However, this type of strong play is nothing new from him, as he graded out above average in every season but one in Jacksonville from 2007-2011, playing both middle and outside linebacker. In his last healthy season before this year, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011. He’s now going into his age 32 season, but he should still be an above average starter, especially excelling in coverage.

Grade: A-

Secondary

Terrell Suggs wasn’t the only player that the Ravens had returning from injury last season. While Suggs was returning from an injury plagued season which he still played through, Lardarius Webb was coming back from a torn ACL that ended his 2012 season. He wasn’t quite his top self in 2013, as is often the case after an injury like that, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 21^st ranked cornerback. At his best, he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out 4^th in 2011 before that 2012 injury. The 2009 3^rd round pick was very impressive as a part-time player in 2009 and 2010 as well and played well before going down with injury in 2012. He’s only played 2 full seasons in the NFL as a starter, but he’s only going into his age 29 season and could easily bounce back to top form this season.

Webb will continue to start opposite Jimmy Smith, a 2011 1^st round pick who broke out last season after failing to establish himself as a solid starter in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. He flashed as a rookie on 256 snaps and then struggled mightily in 2012 on 474 snaps. Last season, he graded out above average, which convinced the Ravens to pick up with 5th year option for 2015 this off-season. The Ravens did lose Corey Graham this off-season though. He was a solid 3rd cornerback who grade out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, on 588 snaps and 703 snaps respectively, as a slot specialist. He’ll be replaced internally by Chykie Brown, who has failed to impress on 283 career snaps in 3 seasons since going in the 5^th round in 2011. It’s an obvious downgrade.

At safety, the Ravens lost both Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard before last season and they replaced them by getting younger at one spot, drafting Matt Elam in the first round, and by bringing in a seemingly comparable veteran at the other spot, signing Michael Huff to replace Bernard Pollard. Elam graded out slightly below average as a rookie, especially struggling in coverage, but he could be better in his 2^nd year in the league. The Ravens are on record saying that they want him to play closer to the line of scrimmage this season, which would highlight his abilities against the run more. He graded out above average against the run last season, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 76^th ranked safety out of 86 eligible in coverage.

Huff didn’t work out at all though, as the veteran struggled on 97 snaps before getting benched and cut, even though the Ravens had already shelled out about 2.5 million dollars to him. He eventually ended up in Denver, where he played 42 snaps, and now remains unsigned on the open market, going into his age 31 season. Fortunately for the Ravens, veteran journeyman James Ihedigbo stepped up as the starter in place of Huff last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked safety. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Ihedigbo signed with the Lions this off-season.

In order to replace him, the Ravens signed veteran Darian Stewart. Stewart, a 2010 undrafted free agent, struggled in 4 seasons in St. Louis and doesn’t seem like a viable starting option. He played just 196 snaps as a rookie, struggled mightily as a starter in 2011, grading out 83^rd out of 87 eligible safeties, and then played just 82 snaps in 2012 as a result. In 2013, he was forced to play 583 snaps because of an injury to TJ McDonald and graded out slightly below average, though better than 2011. The Ravens used a 3^rd round pick on Terrence Brooks as competition. Whoever starts, they’ll play the deeper safety position with Elam playing closer to the line of scrimmage, but it should be a position of weakness on an otherwise very strong defense.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The offense was clearly the problem for the Ravens last season, but they still used their first 3 draft picks on defense. Why? Well, they brought in Timmy Jernigan to replace the departed Arthur Jones and Terrence Brooks to replace the departed James Ihedigbo. Both should be downgrades as a rookie. They also brought in CJ Mosley at middle linebacker even though it wasn’t a position of need, which was a strange pick. They also were unable to replace the departed Corey Graham. Their defense is unlikely to be as good as it was last season, especially since they suffered almost no injuries defensively last season.

Offensively, they did suffer injuries last season and they’ll get Kelechi Osemele and Dennis Pitta back from serious injuries, which will help their offense, but, at the same time, they didn’t have an unreasonable amount of injuries offensively last season and they had the 9^th fewest adjusted games lost in the NFL overall. Adding Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator and Owen Daniels and Jeremy Zuttah at tight end and center should also help a little bit, and their running game should be better by default, but the addition of Steve Smith is unlikely to pan out. The Ravens don’t seem much more talented than they were last season and, while they’re a decent team, it’s likely they’ll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs once again this season. I’ll have an official wins prediction at the end of all my previews.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC North

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San Diego Chargers sign CB Brandon Flowers

June 24, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Chiefs cut Brandon Flowers earlier this month in order to save 7.5 million in cash, after he had a rough 2013 season in which he graded out 87^th out of 110 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He was especially bad in coverage, grading out 96^th in pure coverage grade, allowing 64 completions on 96 attempts (66.7%) for 846 yards (8.81 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and an interception, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 7 penalties. He was a really poor fit for new defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s coverage scheme.

Still, he generated a lot of attention over the past couple of weeks on the open market and rightfully so. Flowers was once one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. He was a top-7 cornerback in the NFL on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2009-2012, maxing out at #2 in 2010. No other cornerback was also in the top-7 in each of those 4 seasons. For some reason, he never made the Pro-Bowl until last season, when he was terrible. Only going into his age 28 season, Flowers could easily recapture his old form in a new system.

The Chargers landed him with this deal, which is worth up to 5 million over 1 season with 3 million guaranteed. That’s a lot of money for someone this late in the off-season, but he deserves it and this deal will allow him to test the market next off-season, still only going into his age 29 season. If he has a bounce back year, he could land a very lucrative multi-year deal. For the Chargers, this is a fantastic move for arguably the most cornerback needy team in the NFL.

The Chargers had probably the league’s worst cornerbacks last season, a huge part of the reason why their defense was so awful last season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.36% rate, 28th in the NFL. Shareece Wright, Richard Marshall, Derek Cox, and Johnny Patrick were their top-4 cornerbacks last season. They ranked 102th, 101st, 104th, and 94th respectively out of 110 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Now the Chargers have added Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft and Brandon Flowers through free agency. If Flowers has a vintage year, the Chargers could have a halfway decent defense and could push to make the playoffs again, even if their offense isn’t as dominant again, despite a tougher schedule.

Grade: A

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San Diego Chargers sign CB Brandon Flowers