Cincinnati Bengals 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 24, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

I thought the Bengals were one of the best teams in the NFL going into the playoffs last season and were a good sleeper candidate to make a Super Bowl run (though their season long inability to win on the road was concerning). They finished the regular season 3^rd in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.81%, behind only Denver and New Orleans, thanks to a league best defense that only allowed opponents to move the chains at a 65.68% rate and an above average offense that moved the chains at a 73.49% rate, 12^th in the NFL.

They won 11 games and, unlike most other teams that won a large amount of games, they weren’t overly reliant on winning the turnover battle to do it, as they were only +1 in turnover margin. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0.

Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins. Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. The fact that the Bengals were having success without being completely reliant on winning the turnover battle seemed to be a good thing for them going into the post-season.

However, turnovers, the great equalizer, got the best of them in the post-season as the Chargers forced 4 turnovers and didn’t commit one of their own en route to a 27-10 victory in Cincinnati, where the Bengals hadn’t lost all season. You can say this is proof that the Bengals were a flawed team going into the playoffs because of their inability to consistently win the turnover battle, but, again, this is something that is very unpredictable. In fact, the Chargers, who forced 4 turnovers in that game, had forced just 17 in the entire regular season.

A lot of the blame was put on quarterback Andy Dalton and rightfully so. After all, Dalton committed 3 of those 4 turnovers (2 interceptions and a lost fumble). He completed 29 of 51 for 334 yards, a touchdown, and those 2 picks. Dalton is now 70 of 123 for 718 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in 3 career playoff games, as Dalton’s first 3 years in the NFL have all ended the same way, with a loss in the first round of the playoffs.

What’s not rightfully so is judging Dalton’s entire career on those 3 games and ignoring the 48 regular season games he’s played. It’s way too small of a sample size to go on and I don’t really buy the notion that some guys randomly become worse quarterbacks in the playoffs. If he does, we definitely don’t have enough evidence yet to definitively prove that. Besides, Dalton and the Bengals were only favored and at home in one of those three games.

Dalton has completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 6.97 YPA, 80 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions in 3 regular seasons in the league, making all 48 starts. One of his issues is his inconsistency. He had 5 games in which he graded out well above average on Pro Football Focus last season and 7 games in which he graded out well below average, finishing the season as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked quarterback. Dalton completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 8.16 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in the Bengals’ 11 wins last season, a QB rating of 101.8. Meanwhile, in 5 losses, he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 5.96 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 67.7. And then, of course, there was his terrible game in the post-season.

It might not seem like Dalton is the type of quarterback that can catch fire and go on a run to a Super Bowl victory with a strong supporting cast right now, but that’s just because he hasn’t done it yet. I think he’s capable of getting hot for a stretch and leading this team to a Super Bowl victory. It didn’t look like Eli Manning or Joe Flacco could do that before they did it, but they still did. Dalton’s regular season track record is comparable to those two and, again, unless you believe that he randomly becomes a worse quarterback in the playoffs, there’s no reason to believe he couldn’t win a Super Bowl.

Eli Manning hadn’t won a playoff game through 3 seasons in the league, but he went all the way to win the Super Bowl in his 4^th year in the league. In fact, Manning has never won a playoff game in a season he didn’t win the Super Bowl. In his first 3 years in the league, Manning completed 54.1% of his passes for an average of 6.31 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions. It was a slightly different passing league back then and you can argue he didn’t have as good of weapons as Dalton has, but they’re clearly inferior numbers. Even his 4^th season in the league didn’t appear to be the start of anything great, as he completed 56.1% of his passes for an average of 6.31 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions before a strong post-season, which ended in a Super Bowl victory.

Things won’t necessarily work out like this for Dalton, but I think the notions that you need a so called “elite” quarterback to win a Super Bowl and that you some quarterbacks randomly become worse in the playoffs are both false. Andy Dalton isn’t a top-10 quarterback, but he’s in the 15 or so range and the Bengals have a very strong supporting cast. The calls for Dalton to be benched or replaced this off-season were absurd and he’ll have every opportunity to prove himself as the quarterback of the future for this team in his contract year this year. The Bengals are on my short list of teams that could win the Super Bowl. The fact that they are 32-1 to win the Super Bowl right now seems like a cheap bet that much more likely than 32-1 will end up paying dividends.

Grade: B

Running Backs

One thing that could derail the Bengals in the quest for that Super Bowl is that they lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators, Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer, to head coaching jobs this off-season. Gruden is less likely to be missed. He was a good coordinator, but he’ll be replaced by former running backs coach Hue Jackson, who has some experience as a both an offensive coordinator and a head coach in the NFL.

One major change that he’ll make is that the Bengals are going to become more run heavy. Under Gruden, they were a pass heavy offense that used a lot of quick, short throws to act as a running game. Jackson is going to make them a run heavy offense and use the run to set up the deep pass. Andy Dalton has 47 touchdowns to 29 interceptions on passes 10+ yards downfield in his career, so this is something he can handle. The Bengals attempted 587 passes last season to 481 runs and Dalton has attempted at least 516 passes in every season he’s been in the league. There could be closer to a 50/50 split this season, especially if the defense continues to play as well as it has over the past couple of seasons.

This is great news for Giovani Bernard, a 2013 2^nd round rookie who was very impressive as a rookie. Bernard only had 170 carries as a rookie, rushing for 695 yards and 5 touchdowns, an average of 4.09 yards per carry, but he also caught 56 passes for 514 yards and another 3 touchdowns. One of the more explosive players in space in the NFL, Bernard graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked running back overall and their 3^rd ranked running back in pass catching grade.

Bernard might not have quite as many catches this season, but there will be more opportunity for him to carry the ball in his 2^nd year in the league. He’s the lead back and could have 300+ touches. Darren McFadden, a running back with a similar style skill set, but less career success, was great under Hue Jackson, rushing for 1771 yards on 336 carries, an average of 5.27 YPA, catching 66 passes for 661 yards and scoring 15 times total in 20 games from 2010-2011 under offensive coordinator and eventual head coach Hue Jackson.

Bernard profiled similar to Ray Rice coming out of college and Rice had a similar rookie year, rushing for 454 yards on 107 carries and catching 33 passes for 273 yards. Rice didn’t break out until his 2^nd year in the league, when he rushed for 1339 yards and 7 touchdowns on 254 carries and caught 78 passes for 702 yards and another touchdown, after he had a full year in an NFL training system to add weight. Bernard could have a similar year in his 2^nd year in the league.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis actually led the team in carries last season, but now he’s not even a lock for the roster. He rushed for just 756 yards and 7 touchdowns on 220 carries last season, an average of 3.44 YPC, and he was Pro Football Focus’ 52^nd ranked running back out of 55 eligible. He’s now averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in each of his last 3 seasons in the league. His career average is 3.88 yards per carry on 1008 carries and he has just 52 catches in 6 seasons in the league. He has one carry for longer than 33 yards in his career. He rarely fumbles and he can pick up yards that are blocked, but that’s about it.

His biggest asset to the team last season was his abilities as a goal line back at 5-11 220, making him, in that sense, a good complement to the 5-10 200 pound Bernard, but the Bengals drafted Jeremy Hill in the 2^nd round to be that big back. Going into his age 29 season, BJGE simply isn’t worth his non-guaranteed 2.5 million dollar salary. Hill is a talented 6-1 235 pounder and will serve as an upgraded complement to Bernard, because he’s more than just a goal line back, though he won’t have the same amount of carries as BJGE had last season. This is Bernard’s backfield now.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One other change that Hue Jackson is going to make to the offense is that he’s going to make Marvin Jones an every down player and stop messing around with lesser talents like Mohamed Sanu. Jones had a breakout game week 8 against the Jets, catching all 8 of his targets for 122 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 13 pass routes run. However, even that didn’t turn him into an every down player as he played fewer than 60% of the team’s offensive snaps in 5 of the Bengals’ 8 final regular season games.

Jones finished the season with 51 catches for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns on 377 routes run, an impressive 1.89 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Mohamed Sanu caught 47 passes for 455 yards and 2 touchdowns on 463 routes run, an average of 0.98 yards per route run. Jones also caught 8 passes for 130 yards on 11 targets (72.7%) and 51 routes run (2.55 yards per route run). He played 77.8% of the Bengals snaps played in that game, a preview of the types of things he can do in the future as an every down wide receiver.

Gruden probably liked Sanu because he was there when the Bengals drafted him higher (3^rd round vs. 5^th round for Jones in 2012), but Jones is clearly the better player and Jackson won’t be afraid to make him an every down starter opposite AJ Green and relegate Sanu to a much smaller role as a slot receiver in a run heavy offense. There’s also talk that the Bengals could be using Sanu in a sort of hybrid h-back/fullback role, like Hue Jackson did with Marcel Reece in Oakland. The 6-1 211 pound Sanu is a willing blocker who has some experience carrying the football (115 collegiate carries and 9 as a pro).

Jones might not be quite as efficient this season in a larger role because he’ll see more attention from the defense and be more tired out, but he’ll have plenty of one-on-one opportunities opposite AJ Green. He could easily have a 3^rd year breakout year and push for 1000+ yards. Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 15^th ranked wide receiver last season on 555 total snaps and their 9^th ranked in terms of pass pure catching grade. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher. Come season’s end, Green and Jones could be talked about as one of the better wide receiver duos in the NFL.

Jones actually graded out slightly better than Green did last season, as Green graded out 17^th and 14^th in pure pass catching grade. Green is probably the better overall player and he has the better track record, but it just shows what kind of player Jones can become. Green has been Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd, 8^th, and 14^th ranked wide receiver in pass catching grade in his first 3 seasons in the league respectively. Green has averaged 2.25 yards per route run in his career. He’s only caught 59.0% of his career targets and had 26 drops, 19 penalties, and 22 interceptions when thrown to throughout his career, so he has some issues that don’t show up on a traditional stat sheet, but he’s still one of the better wide receivers in the game. The Bengals already picked up his 5^th year option for 2015, which was a no brainer. Expect a lucrative extension soon.

One reason a run heavier offense might make sense to the Bengals is it would allow them to run their two former first round pick tight ends on the field at the same time more often, something they already did a fair amount of last season. Jermaine Gresham was drafted in the first round in 2010 and they added Tyler Eifert in the first round in 2013. Gresham has largely been a bust. His receiving numbers aren’t terrible, as he’s caught 218 passes for 2262 yards and 19 touchdowns in 59 games in 4 seasons, but he’s a terrible run blocker who has committed 19 penalties in the last 2 seasons combined, easily most in the NFL among tight ends over that stretch. His 1.37 yards per route run in his career is pretty mediocre as well. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked tight end last season and he was their worst ranked tight end in 2012. He’s graded out below average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league.

Now going into his contract year, it seems pretty unlikely that the Bengals will bring him back for 2015 and beyond, with Eifert waiting in the wings as a potential long-term every down starting tight end. Eifert wasn’t flashy as a rookie, catching 39 passes for 445 yards and 2 touchdowns on 303 routes run, an average 1.47 yards per route run, struggling as a run blocker, and overall grading out slightly below average on 681 snaps. He could be better and have a bigger role in his 2^nd year in the league in 2014.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Bengals’ offensive line is their best offensive unit, even after losing Anthony Collins to free agency this off-season. Collins signed a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed with the Buccaneers. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in limited action in every season since 2009. In 2013, he was given his biggest chance yet, with Andrew Whitworth moving to left guard in place of the injured Clint Boling and Anthony Collins taking over at left tackle. Collins played a career high 592 snaps and didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit all season, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked offensive tackle despite the limited action.

Still, he was essentially their 6^th offensive lineman last season, only on the field because of injury to Clint Boling, so it’s not going to be that big of a loss. That should tell you how talented this unit is upfront. Boling is a solid starter in his own right, grading out above average in each of the last 2 seasons since the 2011 4^th round pick took over as a starter at the start of the 2012 season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 28^th ranked guard last season and their 22^nd ranked guard in 2012. He also didn’t allow a sack or a quarterback hit last season, playing 788 snaps.

Andrew Whitworth is their most talented offensive lineman and coming off arguably the best season of his career. Playing 587 snaps at left tackle and 350 snaps at guard, he was Pro Football Focus’ 15^th ranked offensive tackle and 7^th ranked guard, with no one at either position playing fewer snaps than him and graded out better. His composite grade would have been 2^nd at both tackle and guard last season.

While this was the first extended time he had played at guard since 2008, this kind of dominance is nothing new for him. Since taking over at left tackle in 2009, Whitworth didn’t miss a start from 2009-2012 and graded out as a top-12 offensive tackle in every season from 2009-2012, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked offensive tackle in 2010. He was outside of the top-12 last season, but only because he spent time at guard. He was still just as dominant, if not more so, last season, as compared to that 2009-2012 stretch. Even still, Joe Thomas is the only other offensive tackle to grade out in the top-15 in each of the last 5 seasons. Whitworth is going into his age 33 season, which is a concern, but, considering how well he played last season, I’m not too concerned yet.

At right tackle, there was concern going into last season that Andre Smith would coast once he received the 3-year, 18 million dollar deal he got from the Bengals to re-sign in the previous off-season. In fact, that concern is part of the reason why he didn’t get a bigger contract than that. Smith had weight and motivation concerns coming out of college and struggled mightily in his first 2 seasons in the league. The Bengals exercised an option in his contract after his 2^nd season in the league to cut it from a 6-year to a 4-year deal. That seemed to wake him up, as he graded out 28^th among offensive tackles in 2011 and 4^th in 2012. There was concern that he’d go back to coasting once he got paid, but he graded out 20^th in 2013, so he definitely quelled some of those concerns. Now with 3 straight solid seasons on his resume, the naturally talented right tackle seems poised for another strong year.

They Bengals are also strong at right guard with Kevin Zeitler, a 2012 1^st round pick who is going into his 3^rd year in the league. He wasn’t as good in 2013 as he was in 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked guard. He graded out 26^th in 2013 and missed 4 games. Now going into his 3^rd year in the league, he could easily have a bounce back year. Either way, there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t have another solid year at the very least.

The only position of weakness the Bengals have on the offensive line is at center. The Bengals cut Kyle Cook, a mediocre starting center, this off-season, simply because he wasn’t living up to his salary and he’s yet to be signed on the open market. Mike Pollak is penciled in as the starter right now. The veteran journeyman was impressive in limited action last season, 374 snaps, but there’s no guarantee he can be good again. He’s pretty marginal throughout his career and he didn’t play a snap in 2012. If he struggles, Russell Bodine, a 4^th round rookie, he could get some snaps. Trevor Robinson, a 2012 undrafted free agent who has struggled through 535 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, is also in the mix.

The loss of Collins hurts their depth, but the Bengals still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Andy Dalton was pressured on just 25.2% of his drop backs last season, 2^nd fewest in the NFL behind only Peyton Manning. Part of this had to do with the fact that Dalton had the quickest release in the NFL at an average of 2.24 seconds from snap to throw. Still, the Bengals were #1 on Pro Football Focus in team pass blocking grade (and 12^th in run blocking grade), which is good because Dalton struggles under pressure, completing 38.5% of his passes under pressure last season, 3^rd worst in the NFL. He was at 39.4% in 2012 and 38.6% as a rookie. Their pass protection will be even more important this season as they move to more of a downfield throw offense. They’ll have to block for longer as a result, but they should be up to the task.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the Bengals also lost their defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer. He’ll be replaced internally with Paul Guenther, who has been with the team as an assistant since 2005, last year serving as the linebackers coach. I like that they promoted internally, but they definitely will miss Mike Zimmer, who is one of the most accomplished defensive coordinators in the NFL and fully deserved his new job as the head coach in Minnesota.

The Bengals will also miss Michael Johnson defensively, as the defensive end signed with the Buccaneers this off-season. Johnson is an incredibly athletic edge rusher who went in the 3rd round out of Georgia Tech in 2009 because a lot of his tape didn’t match his athleticism. He eventually put everything together in 2012 in the contract year of his rookie deal, as he recorded 13 sacks and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 defensive end. The Bengals franchise tagged him instead of giving him a long-term deal because they wanted him to prove it again in 2013.

At first glance, he doesn’t appear to have proven it, recording just 5 sacks, but he also added 16 quarterback hits and 40 quarterback hurries, to go with 7 batted passes. He had a 10.6% pass rush rate on 575 pass rush snaps in 2013 and in 2012 he had 13 sacks, 8 hits, and 34 hurries on 533 pass rush snaps, a rate of 10.3%, which was actually lower than 2013. Add in the fact that he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 defensive end against the run and you have a guy who was much better than his raw sack totals. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 4-3 defensive end. That’s obviously going to be hard to replace.

The man who they are going to try to replace him with is 2013 2^nd round pick Margus Hunt. If his rookie year was any indication, that’s not going to go well. Hunt would have been Pro Football Focus’ 11^th worst ranked 4-3 defensive end if he had been eligible last season, despite only playing 164 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out lower. He was an old rookie, so he’s already going into his age 27 season, but he was also incredibly raw coming out of SMU. The Estonian former junior world record holder in discus has only been playing football for 5 seasons. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league and he has a ton of natural talent, but there are obviously no guarantees. He’s the definition of boom or bust.

He probably won’t come close to playing the 922 snaps that Johnson played last season either way though. He’ll start, but the Bengals have some other players who will play snaps. Wallace Gilberry played 520 snaps in a rotational role last season and graded out below average. He’s been a mediocre reserve thus far in his career and I don’t see that really changing. Will Clarke, meanwhile, is a 3^rd round rookie who could see some snaps as a rookie.

Robert Geathers is a veteran option going into his age 31 season coming off of a season ending injury who shouldn’t even be on the roster, especially not at his scheduled 2.5 million dollar salary. He’s graded out well below average in every season dating back in 2008. He was a bottom-5 4-3 defensive end in 2009, 2010, and 2012 and a bottom-10 defensive end in 2011. He only played 22 snaps last season because of injury. He might not make the final roster because of his salary, but, if he does, I could see them giving him a role again for some reason.

Carlos Dunlap will remain an every down defensive end on the other side. Dunlap has graded out above average in every season he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2010 and he’s played an increasing number of snaps in every season, going from 287 snaps to 423 snaps to 601 snaps to 949 snaps last season. His best season was 2011, when he graded out 4^th at his position despite only playing 423 snaps. No one graded out higher and played fewer snaps. He was 8^th in 2012 and 9^th in 2013 and should have another strong season this year, provided he doesn’t miss Mike Zimmer too much.

One “addition” for the Bengals could be defensive tackle Geno Atkins. I say “could” because Atkins might not be 100% in his first season back from a torn ACL that ended his season in the Bengals’ 9^th game of the season. When at his best, Atkins is one of the best defensive players in the game and probably the best defensive tackle in the game. As a 4^th round rookie in 2010, Atkins graded out 11^th on Pro Football Focus 356 snaps and he ranked 2^nd in 2011 and 1^st in 2012, after taking over an every down player. Atkins was by far the top defensive tackle in 2012 and only JJ Watt had a better grade at any position, helping cement Atkins as one of the top few players in the NFL regardless of position.

He looked like he was on his way to another dominant season in 2013 before the injury and he still graded out 11^th, despite playing just 458 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher than him. He still has age on his side, going into only his age 26 season, but an ACL tear sometimes takes a year to come back from fully and it doesn’t help that he lost his defensive coordinator. Still, having him on the field for the whole season, barring any re-injury, should help this defensive line.

The bigger issue is next to Geno Atkins at defensive tackle. Domata Peko will probably get the lion’s share of the snaps at the position because, even though he struggled mightily last season and even though he’s going into his age 30 season, the Bengals still gave him a 2-year, 9 million dollar extension this off-season, rather than cutting him and saving 4.125 million in cash and cap space. Peko was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked defensive tackle last season and he hasn’t graded out above average in a season since 2007. Brandon Thompson, a 2012 3^rd round pick, will also be in the mix. He graded out below average on 389 snaps last season after Atkins got hurt. He played 23 snaps as a rookie. Devon Still was also drafted in 2012, going in the 2^nd round, but he’s only played 289 snaps in 2 seasons combined, struggling to get on the field even when there has been opportunity.

The opposite defensive tackle could be just a two-down role though because, like last season, one of their defensive ends could move inside to defensive tackle on passing downs. That would allow them to get Carlos Dunlap, Margus Hunt, and Wallace Gilberry on the field at the same time if they wanted to, rather than having the other defensive tackle play every down. It’s a trade-off and there might not be a right answer as the Bengals feel the loss of Johnson. Dunlap and Atkins are great, but the latter is coming off of a serious injury, their depth is questionable, and the loss of Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator could really hurt.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Another heavily talented defender that the Bengals have is Vontaze Burfict. Burfict is an every down outside linebacker who broke out last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker last season, in his 2^nd year in the league. The Arizona State product was heavily recruited out of high school and profiled as a potential 1^st round pick going into his junior season in 2011, but he had a down year, a poor combine, and did not get good recommendations from his coaches, causing him to go undrafted.

However, he’s shown his natural talent in Cincinnati, becoming a starter in week 3 of his rookie season, grading out about average as a rookie and then dominating last season. He’s still a one year wonder, which is especially a concern given his history. We don’t know how he’ll handle his success, even though he hasn’t gotten paid yet. There’s also concern that he lost his defensive coordinator. However, only going into his age 24 season, he could easily have another dominant season as an every down linebacker. He’s played outside as a professional, but his natural position is middle linebacker and there’s some talk he could move back there and play every down there this season.

The reason for that is that middle linebacker Rey Maualuga has been struggling mightily over the past 3 seasons, grading out 37^th out of 51 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus in 2011, dead last in 2012, and 38^th out of 55 eligible last season. For some reason, the Bengals gave him a 2-year, 6.5 million dollar deal last off-season, after an awful season, but, even though he’s owed 2.25 million this season, he could still be demoted to two-down work and/or moved to the outside.

The 3^rd linebacker job is also up for grabs. James Harrison played it last season, thriving in a two-down role, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker against the run, despite only playing 383 snaps. Harrison is now going into his age 36 season and still available on the open market. The Bengals could bring him back on a one-year minimum deal, but there are no guarantees that he can still be successful at his age. He may just opt to retire anyway.

Assuming Harrison isn’t back, it’s looks like it’s a three-way battle for the 3^rd linebacker job. Vincent Rey is probably the best of the bunch. The 2010 undrafted free agent played 113 nondescript snaps in 3 seasons from 2010-2012, but he excelled last season on 348 snaps, playing some backup snaps and playing every snap but 5 at middle linebacker in the 3 games that Rey Maualuga missed. Despite only playing 324 snaps at middle linebacker, Rey graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked middle linebacker last season, with no one playing fewer snaps and graded out higher. He can also play outside linebacker, but that’s not where he had his success last season.

The Bengals gave Rey a 2-year, 4.2 million dollar deal this off-season and they could have him play every down at middle linebacker and have Maualuga play only in sub packages outside. The other options are Jayson DiManche and Emmanuel Lamur. DiManche played 47 nondescript snaps last season as an undrafted free agent rookie, while Lamur flashed on 104 snaps as an undrafted free agent rookie, but missed all of last season with a shoulder injury. Rey is the best option of the 3.

Grade: B

Secondary

Another “addition” that could help the Bengals is Leon Hall, who only played 276 snaps last season, before tearing his Achilles. He was dominant before getting hurt though as he would have graded out 17^th among cornerbacks had he been eligible, despite his limited snap count. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher. He allowed 18 completions on 36 attempts (50.0%) for 153 yards (4.25 YPA), a touchdown, and an interception, deflecting 3 passes and not committing a single penalty. He’s a very good cornerback when healthy, grading out 3^rd in 2009 among cornerbacks and 21^st in 2010.

His return might not help them much though because he’s dealing with his 2^nd torn Achilles in 3 seasons and going into his age 30 season. He tore his Achilles midway through the 2011 season as well and wasn’t quite the same in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25^th ranked cornerback, and missing some time with related leg problems. He was better in 2013, but then got reinjured and, especially considering his age, now it’s unclear what kind of explosiveness he’ll have upon returning. He might bounce back, but it could take him a little bit.

The Bengals’ other top 2 cornerbacks are also going into their age 30+ seasons, Adam Jones and Terence Newman. The former is going into his age 31 season. He was the 6^th overall pick in 2005 by the Titans, but he had his career derailed by an off-the-field incident that got him suspended for the entire 2007 season. He then ended up in Dallas in 2008 and then out of the league in 2009. However, he’s had a revival over the past 4 seasons in Cincinnati, grading out above average in each of the last 4 seasons. He did it first playing a combined 616 snaps from 2011-2012, but he’s been a key contributor over the past 2 seasons, grading out 11^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2012 on 608 snaps and 29^th in 2013 on 994 snaps. He’s a naturally talented cornerback, but the concern is that his revival was possibly due to Mike Zimmer’s presence, which is especially a concern when you consider he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Terence Newman is a bigger concern, as he’s going into his age 36 season. Newman has graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons with Cincinnati, grading out 19^th in 2012 and 33^rd in 2013. The issue is he looked close to done when the Bengals signed him, grading out below average in each of his final 2 years in Dallas, including 95^th out of 109 eligible in 2011. Being reunited with his former Dallas defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer in Cincinnati definitely helped him, but now with Zimmer gone and his age 36 season up next, Newman could really see his abilities fall off this season.

Because of the age of their top-3 cornerbacks, the Bengals used their first round pick on Darqueze Dennard out of Michigan State. He probably won’t play much as a rookie, which is good because cornerback usually take a year or two to get adjusted, but he’s valuable to have waiting in the wings. Also waiting in the wings is 2012 1^st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick, who has yet to be able to establish himself in 2 years in his career thus far. He’s played 352 disappointing snaps thus far. He was Pro Football Focus’ 98^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible last season, despite only playing 309 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out lower. He could be better in his 3^rd year in the league and push Newman for a significant role, but there are no guarantees he can be an asset for them on the field.

Things are more set at safety, where George Iloka and Reggie Nelson started last season and where they will begin the season as starters again this season. Iloka was in his first year as a starter last year, after not playing a defensive snap as a 5^th round rookie in 2012. Iloka graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th ranked safety. We’ll see if he can repeat that in his 2^nd year as a starter. Nelson also graded out above average, grading out 18^th among safeties. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 4 seasons since the one-time 1^st round pick bust came to Cincinnati from Jacksonville before the 2010 season. His best season was 2012, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked safety.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

Last season, even though they fell short in one game in the playoffs, in which they lost the turnover battle by 4, the Bengals were still one of the better teams in the NFL when you look at their whole body of work. They’ve had some losses this off-season, losing offensive tackle Anthony Collins and defensive end Michael Johnson, both on big deals to the Buccaneers and losing both offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer to head coaching jobs. They will get Geno Atkins and Leon Hall back from injuries, but it’s unclear if they’ll be 100%. They also had the fourth fewest adjusted games lost last season so, while they did lose top players to injury, they didn’t have unreasonably bad injury luck.

However, this is still one of the more talented teams in the NFL. Losing their coordinators is the wild card, as it’s tough to know exactly how much that will negatively affect them, but new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has experience and new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is an internal promotion and a Zimmer disciple. They are still on a short list of about 6, 7, 8 teams that I think can win the Super Bowl. Obviously Andy Dalton will have to play better in the post-season than he has in the past for them to do so, but I think he’s capable. They probably won’t end up being my Super Bowl pick, but getting them at 32-1 on a cheap bet might not be a bad idea. I’ll have official predictions after I’m done with every team’s preview.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in AFC North

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New York Jets 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 21, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Jets, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Jets obviously needed to make some changes going into 2013, after an embarrassing 6-10 season in which the focus revolved around the mismanaged quarterback situation with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. Tebow was let go in the off-season and the Jets used a 2^nd round pick on Geno Smith to compete with Mark Sanchez for the starting job. Sanchez ended up injuring his shoulder in the pre-season and missing the whole season, giving Geno Smith the opportunity to start all 16 games and give the Jets, at the very least, a much needed new face for the franchise.

The Jets also fired GM Mike Tannenbaum, who grossly mismanaged their salary cap, and brought in John Idzik. Purely looking at record, it appears that the changes were helpful, as the Jets improved to 8-8 last season. However, that record is misleading. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7^th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25^th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24^th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The biggest reason for this was their offensive ineptitude, as they ranked 29^th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 65.59% rate. That helped waste a strong performance by their defense, as they ranked 12^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.64% rate. They ranked 25^th overall with a differential of -4.05%. The quarterback position was their biggest problem as Geno Smith was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL last season, certainly the worst quarterback in the NFL who started all 16 games.

Smith graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked quarterback and their worst ranked quarterback in pure passing grade. He completed 55.8% of his passes for an average of 6.88 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, a QB rating of 66.5. For comparison, Mark Sanchez completed 54.3% of his passes for an average of 6.36 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions in 2012, a QB rating of 66.9, better than Smith’s. The only redeeming quality Smith showed last season was his rushing ability, as he rushed for 366 yards and 6 touchdowns on 72 carries, an average of 5.08 yards per attempt. He graded out above average in this aspect on Pro Football Focus.

Smith, a 2013 2nd round pick, could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. After all, the history of quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round over the past decade or two is not promising. Recent successes of Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson as quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round are the exception to the rule. Of the 26 quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd-3rd round from 2000-2010, only two of them have ever made a Pro-Bowl.

After Drew Brees and Matt Schaub, the next best quarterbacks in terms of career QB rating include the likes of Tarvaris Jackson, Josh McCown, Kevin Kolb, and Chad Henne. For every Wilson, Dalton, or Kaepernick, there are at least three Andrew Walters, David Greenes, Jimmy Clausens, and Drew Stantons. Quarterbacks are so valuable in the NFL that if you have the baseline abilities to be a starter, you almost never fall out of the 1st round. If you fall out of the first round, there’s usually a good reason for it.

The Jets clearly aren’t 100% sold on Geno Smith, so they signed Michael Vick to a 1-year deal, worth 5 million dollars to compete with Smith for the starting job. Michael Vick has been on the decline in every season since 2010, which makes sense considering how reliant he is on his legs and how many injuries he’s suffered in the past. He put up decent numbers in 7 games last season, completing 54.6% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries. However, a closer examination shows that much of that was Chip Kelly’s system making him look better than he was, much like it did with Nick Foles. Pro Football Focus graded him out 26^th among 42 eligible quarterbacks in pass grade, despite limited playing time, 335 snaps.

In 2012, he completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 332 yards and a touchdown on 62 carries. That’s probably more accurate and now he’s two years older, going into his age 34 season. He’s played all 16 games once in 10 seasons in the NFL and has missed 22 games over the past 4 seasons. Early reports about Vick in off-season practices have not been promising and it sounds like Smith has the upper hand on the starting job.

Grade: C-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

If the Jets play like they did last season, they probably win about 5 games this season, but there are reasons to believe they’ll be a better team this season. For one, they had a very poor turnover margin last season, as their turnover margin of -14 was 3rd worst in the NFL, only ahead of the Giants (-15) and the Texans (-20). Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis.

Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins. Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38.

If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. Even if Geno Smith doesn’t improve upon his horrible 4.7% interception rate (which he probably will, just by default), the Jets should have a better turnover margin next season simply because they should recover more fumbles. The Jets recovered a league worst 30.30% of fumbles last season, a number that should be closer to 50% this season.

Another reason why the Jets should be a better team this season is because they’ve added more talent, without really losing any key contributors this off-season. Their biggest addition was Eric Decker, who comes over from the Broncos on a 5-year, 36.25 million dollar deal. Eric Decker is going to get a massive downgrade at the quarterback position going from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith/Michael Vick.

The last time he played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 82nd ranked wide receiver out of 115 eligible and averaged just 1.28 yards per route run, 65th out of 95 eligible. That was in 2011 with the combination of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton, which is comparable to what Decker will be dealing with in New York. Decker will also see more of the defense’s attention and, even though he’ll be the #1 receiver, he might not necessarily get more targets, simply because the Jets don’t pass as much as the Broncos do. Decker has had 120 and 135 targets over the past 2 seasons respectively, an average of 127.5 targets per season. That would have been 26.6% of the Jets’ 480 pass attempts last season.

That being said, it’s unfair to suggest that he’ll just go back to his 2011 level of production, when he caught 44 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns. While much of his increased production since then is due to the arrival of Peyton Manning, he’s still an improved player over when he was in his 2nd year in the league in 2011, after being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010. He’s averaged 1.80 and 2.03 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons, grading out 36th and 11th in those two seasons respectively among wide receivers, peaking in his contract year.

He’s not a true coverage changing #1 receiver, he’s not overly explosive, and he drops too many passes (29 drops compared to 216 catches over the past 3 seasons). However, he is going to be easily the Jets’ best wide receiver this season, he’s the difference maker the Jets needed downfield, and he’s incredibly reliable around the goal line (32 touchdowns in the last 3 seasons, including 8 even in 2011). After averaging 86 catches for 1176 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, Decker will probably have between 60-70 catches for 800-900 yards and 6-8 touchdowns next season, which is a significant upgrade over anything the Jets had from the wide receiver position last year.

Opposite him, the Jets still have issues though. After all, their leading receiver last season had 43 catches for 523 yards and 3 touchdowns. That receiver was Jeremy Kerley, who is probably their 2^nd best wide receiver, but the 5-9 188 pounder is pretty much purely a slot receiver. He ran 77.2% of his routes from the slot last season and 71.2% of his routes from the slot in 2012. Kerley had that production in 12 games and in 2012 he led the team with 56 catches for 827 yards and 2 touchdowns in 16 games. Kerley has averaged 1.77 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons, despite poor quarterback play. Last season, he caught 43 of 63 targets and Jet quarterbacks had a 96.2 QB rating when throwing to him, as opposed to a 66.6 QB rating in general. He also dropped just 1 pass all season and graded out 38^th among wide receivers in pure pass catching grade.

The Jets really don’t have anyone to be the other outside receiver opposite Decker though. Stephen Hill was a 2^nd round pick in 2012, but he’s struggled mightily in two years in the league. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 94^th ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible in 2012 and 103rd ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible in 2013. He’s caught 45 of 97 targets (46.4%) for 593 yards and 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions over the past 2 seasons combined and dropped 9 passes. Over that time period, he’s averaged 0.99 yards per route run. He could be better going into his 3^rd season in the league, but more likely he’ll just end up being a bust.

David Nelson is a veteran option that could beat out Hill for that job. He caught 36 passes for 423 yards and 2 touchdowns last season on 298 routes run (1.42 yards per route run), a season after suffering a devastating injury. The Jets also drafted 3 wide receivers, taking Jalen Saunders and Shaquelle Evans in the 4^th round and Quincy Enunwa in the 6^th round. One of them could push for playing time as a rookie. The other outside receiver position should be a weakness either way though.

The Jets also drafted a tight end, taking Jace Amaro in the 2^nd round. He could be an immediate upgrade over Jeff Cumberland, who has averaged 1.43 yards per route run in his 4 year career since going undrafted in 2010. Cumberland is a better pass catcher than he’s given credit for, but Amaro has more upside than him and could be a bigger contributor in the passing game. At the very least, Amaro should be able to replace Kellen Winslow, who flashed as a pass catcher last season, but remains unsigned as of this writing going into his age 31 season because of his age, his injury history, and his off-the-field problems.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Jets also made an off-season addition at running back this off-season, in an attempt to fix their issues at that position, signing Chris Johnson. However, he’s unlikely to provide much, if any, help. Chris Johnson hasn’t been the same player since 2009, his 2000 yard season, though few people are able to repeat that kind of season.

He was still an above average starting running back for a few seasons after that and an incredibly durable one at that, not missing a game since his rookie year in 2008 and totaling over 250 carries in all 6 of his professional seasons. However, last year he significantly declined in efficiency, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, including just 1.8 yards per carry after contact and ranked 3rd worst in the NFL in elusive rating. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked running back out of 55 eligible. That’s why the Titans cut him, instead of paying him a large salary.

He should become more efficient this season as he’ll see a smaller workload, splitting carries with power back Chris Ivory (probably in the neighborhood of 180-220 carries). He could also be healthier after dealing with significant knee problems all last season. However, he’s also going into his age 29 season with 2014 career touches so he’s not getting any better any time soon. Injury problems could become commonplace for him and there’s already some concern about a potentially arthritic knee.

He’s on the decline and the Jets’ run blocking is significantly worse than the Titans. They were Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked run blocking team last season (more on the offensive line’s issues in a little bit), while the Titans were 5^th. My prediction for Johnson is that he has one highlight reel touchdown run of 40+ yards that keeps him relevant in the national spotlight, but ultimately averages less than 4 yards per carry and gets cut going into his age 30 season in 2015, rather than being paid a 4 million dollar salary.

Johnson will take over Bilal Powell’s old role. Powell is a marginal talent at best, who rushed for 697 yards and a touchdown on 176 carries last season, an average of 3.96 YPC. He’s averaged just 3.86 yards per carry for his career in 3 seasons since being drafted in the 4^th round by the Jets in 2011. Powell won’t have much of a role this season, but it’s unclear how much of an upgrade Johnson can even be over him. He was Pro Football Focus’ 48^th ranked running back last season, while Johnson was 42^nd.

Ivory will continue to be the power back, even if he doesn’t quite have the 182 carries he had last season again. He graded out below average on Pro Football Focus last season, but that’s because he’s useless on passing downs, with 5 catches in his career, including just 2 last season on 72 routes run. Despite his limited playing time on passing downs, he was still Pro Football Focus’ 48^th ranked running back out of 55 eligible in terms of pass catching grade. However, he’s probably their best pure runner, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked running back in run grade last season. He rushed for 833 yards and 3 touchdowns on 182 carries, an average of 4.58 yards per carry. He’s averaged 4.89 yards per carry for his career. He’s had issues staying healthy through.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I mentioned earlier the Jets’ offensive line has issues. They graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked run blocking team and 21^st ranked pass blocking team last season. They have talent, but there are definitely issues here. One of their issues is that 3 of their starters upfront are going into their age 30+ season. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold were once among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions, but they are on the decline.

Mangold was once inarguably the top center in the NFL, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 or #2 center in every season from 2007-2011, something no one else could come close to saying. However, he “fell” to 6^th in 2012 and then all the way to 19^th in 2013, below average. He could bounce back this season, but his best years are probably behind him as he goes into his age 30 season. Ferguson, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked offensive tackle in 2008, 7^th ranked in 2009, 4^th ranked in 2010, 20^th ranked in 2011, and 7^th ranked in 2012. However, he fell all the way to 40^th in 2013. Now he’s going into his age 31 season, so, while he could bounce back, his best days are also likely behind him.

At left guard, Willie Colon is going into his age 31 season as well. There was a time when Willie Colon was one of the best right tackles in the game, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked offensive tackle in 2008 and 3rd ranked offensive tackle in 2009, but he missed every game but one in 2010 and 2011 combined. He returned as a guard in 2012 and played solid in 11 games and then signed a one-year deal with the Jets for the 2013 season. Last season, he played all 16 games for the first time since 2009 and he was a decent starter at right guard. He’s definitely not the player he once was and he’s going into his age 31 season, with an extensive injury history, missing 36 games from 2010-2012, but he’s still probably a starting caliber player.

Left guard is their biggest issue. Brian Winters is currently penciled in as the starter for the 2^nd straight season, but he was awful last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 77^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible on 771 snaps over 12 starts. The 2013 3^rd round pick could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there’s no guarantee. The Jets don’t have many other alternatives. Oday Aboushi and William Campbell were 5^th and 6^th round picks respectively in 2013, but neither played a snap as a rookie. The latter was a collegiate defensive lineman.

They have issues at right tackle as well. Austin Howard left as a free agent and he was a solid right tackle, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st and 47^th ranked offensive tackle in the last 2 seasons respectively. The Jets replaced him with Breno Giacomini on a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal this off-season, which was an overpay. Giacomini, a 2008 5^th round pick, has never graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He had the best season of his career last season, grading out 41^st, but he also missed 7 games with injury and struggled mightily during the Seahawks’ post-season run. In 2012, the only season he started all 16 games, he graded out 69^th among 80 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

The Jets’ defensive line is easily their best unit and arguably the best 3-man defensive line in the NFL. They are a big part of the reason why the Jets had a solid defense last year and why the Jets had easily the best run defense in the league last season. The Jets allowed 3.35 yards per carry last season. No one else allowed fewer than 3.65 yards per carry. There was a bigger difference between 2^nd and 11^th than there was between 2^nd and 1^st in terms of yards per carry allowed. That’s how good their run defense was last season. I argued that all three of their starting defensive linemen should have gone to the Pro-Bowl as a result of that.

Sheldon Richardson is the best of the trio. The 13th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Richardson won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season, excelling against the run. Richardson’s 52 solo tackles were 2nd most at the 5-technique defensive end position behind all-everything JJ Watt and he also had 16 assisted tackles, which led the position, and missed just 4 tackles. As good as JJ Watt was, he missed 7 tackles.

Richardson also had 41 “stops” which also came in 2nd at his position, again behind Watt. Stops refer to a tackle within 4 yards of the original line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance and 3rd and 4th down. 32 of those stops came on run plays, on 325 run snaps, a rate of 9.8% that was 7th among eligible 5-technique defensive ends. He also did a great job of tying up multiple blockers when asked. For his work against the run, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 3-4 defensive end against the run and 5th overall.

He wasn’t nearly as impressive as a pass rusher, with those aforementioned 4 sacks. He also had 5 hits and 24 hurries on 509 pass rush snaps, a rate of 6.5%. That isn’t that bad and he only graded out slightly below average in this aspect on Pro Football Focus. He’s still technically a one-year wonder, but technically all rookies are. I don’t have much doubt that he can continue to be an elite player in 2014, possibly even better than he was as a rookie.

Muhammad Wilkerson is the biggest name on the unit. Many saw Wilkerson as having a breakout season last year, as evidenced by his 11 sacks, but he was actually better in 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 3-4 defensive end. In 2013, he was “only” 8^th at his position. In 2013, he had 11 sacks, 9 hits, and 32 hurries on 636 pass rush snaps, a rate of 8.2%. In 2012, he had 5 sacks, 10 hits, and 22 hurries on 472 pass rush snaps, a rate of 7.8%, which is comparable, and he was also much better against the run. Still, he’s one of the best young defensive linemen in the NFL and has been for two seasons. The 2011 1^st round pick has really panned out and already has had his option picked up for 2015. The Jets are also reportedly in talks with him about an extension. He’s their best interior pass rusher.

Damon Harrison, their nose tackle, is probably their best run stopper. The man affectionately known as Snacks, Harrison is a massive 6-4 350. The 2012 undrafted free agent cut down on the snacks a little bit last season and moved to feasting on offensive linemen and running backs. He was easily Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in terms of run stopping grade and only JJ Watt had a higher run stopping grade at any position.

He doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, with 1 sack and 9 hurries on 226 pass rush snaps, a 4.4% rate, grading out below average, but it didn’t matter that much. He was still Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked defensive tackle last season on 510 snaps and no one played fewer snaps and graded out higher. There might not be a better two-down player in the NFL. He’s still a one year wonder, playing just 22 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2012, and his history of weight problems is concerning, but he could easily have another strong year against the run.

The Jets also have two very talented reserves on the defensive line. Kenrick Ellis, a 2011 3^rd round pick, was dominant on 210 snaps last season. He would have graded out 17^th among defensive tackles overall, despite his playing time, if he had been eligible. He also would have been 5^th among defensive tackles in pure run grade. In 3 years in the league, he’s graded out above average in 2 seasons, though he never did anything like he did last season before. Meanwhile, Leger Douzable graded out above average, specializing in the run, on 242 snaps last season. He’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons in which he’s played.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As good as the Jets’ defensive line was last season, they weren’t great at getting to the quarterback. Because of that, they needed strong edge rush from their rush linebackers, but they didn’t really get that. As a result, they were Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked team in terms of pass rush grade. Calvin Pace had a career high 11 sacks last season. Some people mistake that for having the best year of his career, which isn’t true as you can’t just look at sack numbers. He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, thanks to just 3 quarterback hits and 21 quarterback hurries.

That being said, it was clearly a better year than 2012. Calvin Pace looked pretty done after the 2012 season, after recording 8 sacks in 2011 and 2012 combined and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012. The Jets cut Pace going into his age 33 season last off-season, but brought him back on a cheap one year deal. That paid off obviously, but now he’s going into his age 34 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll be able to have even a decent season again this season and he could really struggle. At the most, he’s only a stopgap starter, after being brought back on a 2-year, 5 million dollar deal this off-season. The Jets needed to find a long-term solution behind him this off-season, but they weren’t able to.

Quinton Coples is the starter opposite him. He was drafted in the 1^st round in 2011 to be that long-term edge rusher, but he’s disappointed so far. He was alright on 516 snaps as a rookie, but struggled on 834 snaps last season, particularly as a pass rusher. He was Pro Football Focus’ 32^nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 42 eligible and 39^th ranked in pure pass rush grade. The 6-6 285 pounder played the run pretty well, but he’s not a natural fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He also rarely drops into coverage, dropping on just 26 snaps last season, as opposed to 238 snaps for Calvin Pace. That makes it hard for the Jets to disguise what they’re doing pre-snap. Coples could be better in his 3^rd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. Another issue at the position is the lack of depth. Garret McIntyre is their top reserve, but he’s graded out below average in 2012 and 2013 on 412 snaps and 271 snaps respectively.

The Jets have issues in the middle of their linebacking corps as well. Demario Davis was the inferior of their two starters at middle linebacker, struggling mightily in his first season as a starter. Davis played 315 uninspiring snaps as a rookie and then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 49^th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible on 1077 snaps as an every-down linebacker last season. He could be better in his 3^rd year in the league, but at the same time, he was just a 3^rd round pick so it wouldn’t be a shock if he never developed into a solid starter.

Opposite him, David Harris is a veteran middle linebacker, going into his age 30 season. He was re-signed to a big 4-year, 36 million dollar deal in the 2011 off-season, one of many ill-advised contracts given out by ex-GM Mike Tannenbaum. Harris has graded out below average in all 3 seasons since signing that deal, with 2012 being his worst season, as he graded out 48^th out of 53 eligible middle linebackers that season.

He wasn’t terrible last season, grading out 20^th at his position, but he’s unlikely to get any better going into his 30s. On top of that, he was never that great even before the extension, as he graded out below average in 2007 and 2008 and graded out only slightly above average in 2009 and 2010. The only reason he’s still around at a 4.9 million dollar salary in his contract year is the veteran leadership he provides. Like with outside linebacker, the Jets don’t really have that much depth at the position should either of the starters struggle or get hurt.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Jets had a lot of money to play with this off-season and were seemingly in on every single top free agent cornerback in this strong free agent cornerback class, after cutting Antonio Cromartie, and struck out on all of them, as new GM John Idzik refused to get into bidding wars. This upset a lot of Jets fans, but, with the exception of Darrelle Revis, an ex-Jet who probably wouldn’t have returned anyway, they probably would have ended up overpaying if they had signed any free agent cornerback. They all had their warts, so there’s no shame in the Jets accurately setting prices and refusing to go above them. The inability to do that is what ended up costing Tannenbaum his job.

A lot of Jets fans were also upset that they let Antonio Cromartie go, saving them 9.5 million in cash and cap space ahead of his contract year in 2014, and then didn’t re-sign him to a cheaper deal, letting him sign with the Cardinals for 3.25 million over 1 year. However, they won’t really miss him. They might miss what he could be this season if he’s healthy and able to bounce back this season, but they won’t miss the 2013 version of him.

He was awful last season, playing through a hip injury, which led to his release. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th worst cornerback, 2nd worst in terms of coverage grade. He was torched with regularity, allowing 19.1 yards per completion, 2nd highest in the NFL. He could be better this season in Arizona, but there are no guarantees, especially with him going into his age 30 season, and, again, the Jets won’t miss the 2013 version of him. They aren’t worse at cornerback than they were in 2013 as a result of releasing him.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have issues at the position though, as there’s a reason they were so actively pursuing cornerbacks in free agency. After missing out on Vontae Davis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib, and Alterraun Verner, as well as some other mid-level free agent cornerbacks, the Jets had to settle for signing Dimitri Patterson from the Dolphins. Patterson is good when he’s healthy, but he’s missed 17 games over the past 2 seasons combined and he’s played just 1 full season since he came in the league as an undrafted free agent in 2005.

He won’t suddenly become more durable (or better, for that matter) now that he’s going into his age 31 season. However, he’s graded out above average in each of his last 3 seasons (though he didn’t play more than 558 snaps in any of those 3 seasons). Last season, he played just 241 snaps, but no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out higher, as a result of his 4 interceptions. He would have been Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade if he had been eligible. If he can stay on the field, he could be an asset for them.

Patterson could be one of the starters and Dee Milliner would line up opposite him. Milliner has the potential to be their best cornerback. After all, he was the 9^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, though it was one of the weaker drafts at the top in recent history. Still, he definitely has the ability to bounce back from a down rookie season. Cornerbacks tend to take a year or so to transition to the NFL. Milliner graded out 86^th among 110 eligible cornerbacks in coverage grade last season, as he allowed 7 touchdowns, though he was solid against the run and didn’t commit a penalty on 747 snaps. We’ll see how he does in his 2^nd year in the league, but the upside is still there.

It’s a 3-way battle for the 3^rd cornerback job. Kyle Wilson is the veteran of the bunch, but the 2010 1^st round pick has largely been a bust thus far in his career. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons and only played 480 snaps last season. He’s reportedly not having a good off-season and reportedly could be phased out of the defense entirely. Darrin Walls is also in the mix. He played 292 snaps last season, but graded out below average and he has only played 393 snaps in 3 seasons since going undrafted in 2011. Meanwhile, Dexter McDougle was a 3^rd round pick in this past draft.

The Jets also used a high draft pick on a safety, taking Calvin Pryor out of Louisville with the 18^th overall pick and making him the top safety off the board. Pryor instantly becomes their best safety, even as a rookie, which shows how big of an issue they have at the position. They had to sign the archaic Ed Reed midway through last season, after he was cut by the Texans halfway into the first season of a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed. That’s how bad things were.

Opposite Pryor, it should be either Antonio Allen or Dawan Landry. Landry is the veteran option and an incumbent starter, but he graded out below average last season, as he has in each of his last 3 seasons, and he now is going into his age 32 season. Allen, meanwhile, was a 7^th round pick in 2012. He’s graded out below average in both seasons he’s been in the league, doing so on 72 snaps in 2012 and 550 snaps in 2013. The Jets have a lot of issues in the secondary, as well as in the back 7 in general, but they have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, which allowed them to have a solid defense last season.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jets won 8 games last season, but that required a lot of luck, specifically a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their point differential (-97) suggested they were a 5 win team and they actually had a worse point differential than 2012, when they had a -94 point differential and went 6-10. However, they also had some bad luck with fumbles and they should be overall a more talented team this season. All that being said, looking at this team and the level of talent they have, they are clearly the least talented team in the AFC East and one of the least talented teams in the NFL. They’re definitely going to have fewer wins than last season. The question is how many fewer. I’ll have an official prediction for them at the end of all my previews.

Prediction: 4-12 4th in AFC East

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Miami Dolphins 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 20, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Dolphins had high expectations going into last season, with Ryan Tannehill, the 8^th overall pick in 2012, going into the 2^nd season of his career, and after a big off-season, in which they were anointed the off-season winners because they spent the most money. However, the Dolphins just improved by 1 game, going from 7-9 to 8-8, and collapsing down the stretch, losing their final 2 games by a combined score of 39-7 to the Bills and Jets, divisional rivals against whom they were favored. Winning just one of those games would have sent them to the playoffs.

However, even if they had made the playoffs, they wouldn’t have deserved it as they were a team that was worse than their record all season. Their offense really struggled to move the chains, moving them at a 66.81% rate, 26^th in the NFL. While their defense was solid, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.75% rate, 14^th in the NFL, it wasn’t nearly enough. They finished the season with a -3.94% rate of moving the chains differential, 24^th in the NFL. They weren’t as good as their 8-8 record.

So what happened? Why did they fail to improve? Well, a big part of it was their free agent class was largely a bust. They spent a lot of money, but that doesn’t always equal results, as Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, and Philip Wheeler all disappointed on big contracts, not so surprisingly. Meanwhile, Reshad Jones, who they gave a big extension after a big 2013 season, struggled mightily. They gave one year deals to Tyson Clabo, Dustin Keller, and Brent Grimes and only one of them panned out. They traded up to #3 to draft Dion Jordan and he didn’t do much as a rookie. They also had significant and related issues at quarterback and on the offensive line that I’ll get into.

Ryan Tannehill showed improvement from his rookie year, when he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.81 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 76.1. In 2013, he completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, a QB rating of 81.7. He also improved on the ground as the mobile Tannehill rushed for 238 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries, an average of 5.95 YPA, after rushing for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns on 49 carries as a rookie, an average of 4.31 YPA.

Tannehill’s biggest issue last season might have been his pocket presence. He was sacked 58 times, 10 times more than anyone in the NFL, and, while the offensive line had problems, it wasn’t all on them. Tannehill, despite his mobility and athleticism, took a sack on 26.1% of pressured drop backs, 3^rd worst in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks. That’s even worse than when he was a rookie and took one on 21.5% of pressured dropbacks, 9^th worst in the league. His offensive line needs to do a better job, but he’s not showing good pocket presence. All those sacks are a big part of the reason why the Dolphins’ offense sputtered so often last season. That could improve in his 3^rd year in the league, but it’s obviously a concern.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I mentioned that the Dolphins also had serious issues on the offensive line as well. If they can have improved offensive line play, it’ll help Tannehill develop. They weren’t horrible last season, or at least not as bad as those aforementioned 58 sacks would suggest, ranking 19^th in pass block efficiency and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked run blocking offensive line, but they certainly had issues. They also certainly had issues off-the-field as well, as a bullying scandal got left guard Richie Incognito suspended and caused offensive tackle Jonathan Martin to leave the team for emotional reasons.

Last season, the Dolphins started week 1 with Jonathan Martin at left tackle, Richie Incognito at left guard, Mike Pouncey at center, John Jerry at right guard, and Tyson Clabo at right tackle. Martin and Clabo struggled to start the season, getting Martin moved to right tackle, Clabo moved to the bench and forcing the team to trade for Bryant McKinnie, an aging veteran benched by the Ravens, to start at left tackle. Martin then left the team and Clabo took back over at right tackle. Then Incognito, their best run blocker, got suspended, forcing the underwhelming combination of Sam Brenner and Nate Garner to split time at left guard.

Incognito and Martin are now gone and McKinnie and Clabo remain on the open market as aging veterans coming off of down seasons. The only 2013 week 1 starter who could start for them week 1 of 2014 is Pouncey, who could actually face a short suspension for his role in the bullying scandal. The Dolphins obviously knew they had to fix things on the offensive line and spent their off-season focusing on the unit, adding two new starters through free agency on multi-year deals and using a 1^st and 3^rd round picks on offensive linemen.

Unfortunately, they overspent on their two offensive linemen and reached in the first round for a player widely regarded as a 2nd round prospect. They’ll be better on the offensive line, but the unit is far from fixed. Branden Albert was their big money signing. The Dolphins obviously needed a blindside protector, possibly more than any team in the league, but this was a buyer’s market in terms of left tackles, which is a rarity considering top level blindside protectors rarely are allowed to hit the open market. This off-season Albert, Jared Veldheer, Eugene Monroe, and Anthony Collins all were available as high level left tackles, while Rodger Saffold has the ability to be a strong left tackle when healthy. Branden Albert got 5 years, 46 million, with 25 million of that guaranteed, which makes him, by far, the highest paid of the bunch and I don’t think he’s the best of the bunch.

Eugene Monroe got 5 years, 37.5 million with 19 million guaranteed from the Ravens. Eugene Monroe has been a top-16 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out as #6 in 2011. He graded out 16th overall this season, but playing even better once he was traded to Baltimore. The Baltimore “version” of Monroe was the #12 offensive tackle this season. Jared Veldheer got 35 million over 5 years from Arizona and he was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and 12th ranked offensive tackle in 2012, before an injury plagued contract year hurt his value a little bit.

Still, I think both of those players are better than Albert, who is 3 years older, going into his age 30 season, has a history of back problems, and really didn’t get a lot of interest from his original team, the Chiefs, in keeping him around. Albert has never graded out higher than 18th on Pro Football Focus, ranking 18th in 2011, 25th in 2012, and 28th in 2013. Veldheer and Monroe have graded out higher than 18th a combined 5 times over the last 3 years, with the exclusion of a fluky injury plagued year for Veldheer in 2013. Albert also appears to be in slight decline yearly as he heads into his 30s. Albert will help the Dolphins, but he’s not the elite blindside protector the Dolphins are paying him like, so they really overpaid, to the tune of about 10 million dollars over 5 years.

Shelley Smith was their other big free agent signing and he’ll start at right guard. His signing wasn’t as big of a move as Albert’s, as he got 2-year, 5.5 million, but the Dolphins are still overpaying him because he’s never been a full-time starter in the NFL, maxing out at 371 snaps last season and playing 731 snaps total in his 4-year career. Smith flashed last season on those 371 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked guard despite the limited playing time, so he has upside. However, in 2012, he graded out 55^th out of 81 eligible on just 360 snaps and he was just a 6^th round pick in 2010. He didn’t play a single offensive snap in the first 2 years of his career.

Ja’Waun James was the 19^th overall pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, but he was widely considered a 2^nd round prospect before the draft, something several league sources have confirmed. The Dolphins apparently panicked when Ryan Shazier got drafted 4 spots ahead of them and drafted someone that, while they had a 1^st round grade on him, they could have gotten in a trade down. He has a big body, but he’s flat footed and could be overwhelmed as a rookie starter at right tackle. They don’t really have any competition for him.

At left guard, the Dolphins will start another inexperienced player, either 3^rd round rookie Billy Turner or 2013 3^rd round pick Dallas Thomas. Turner would probably struggle as a rookie because he’s a 3^rd rounder coming from small school North Dakota State, but Thomas might not necessarily be an upgrade. Despite all the issues the Dolphins had on the offensive line last season, Thomas still managed to play just 2 snaps, which has to be concerning.

Mike Pouncey at center, as I mentioned, is the only holdover on the offensive line and he’s also probably their best offensive lineman. The 15^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft had a lackluster rookie year, but he has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked center in 2012 and 13th ranked center in 2013 and could be even better now in his 4^th year in the league, only his age 25 season. His twin brother Maurkice is the bigger name, playing center for the Steelers and somehow making 3 Pro-Bowls and 3 All-Pros in 3 healthy seasons, but Mike is the better football player.

Despite his off-the-field problems, the Dolphins still picked up his 5^th year option for 2015 this off-season. Obviously, if he were to have any sort of suspension, it would be a big loss for the Dolphins. Their next option on the depth chart is Sam Brenner, a 2013 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily on 292 snaps as a rookie last season. He played 231 snaps at guard and no guard played fewer snaps and graded out worse than him. He was better in 1 game at center and he could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but no one drafted him so there’s obviously no guarantee that he can even develop into a passable spot starter.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Mike Wallace was the Dolphins’ biggest off-season signing of the previous off-season, as they gave him a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal last off-season with 30 million guaranteed. Like the rest of their big signings last off-season, Wallace didn’t really pan out. Wallace caught a career high 73 passes, but only for 930 yards. His 5 touchdowns were the smallest total of his 5-year career, as was his 12.7 yards per catch. He was brought in to be a deep threat, but he hauled in just 6 of 36 targets 20+ yards downfield. He caught 73 passes on 137 targets in general (53.3%) and quarterbacks threw 9 interceptions when targeting him, giving them a 59.4 QB rating when they threw to Wallace. Wallace also dropped 11 passes and averaged a mediocre 1.44 yards per route run. He was decently productive, but he graded out just about average on Pro Football Focus, certainly not worth his insane salary.

This kind of disappointment shouldn’t be surprising from him. It’s always concerned me when a guy is obviously just chasing money. Wallace held out long into training camp going in 2012, rather than playing out the final year of his rookie deal and, as a result, he had a poor year by his standards in 2012, with 64 catches for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns despite a career high in targets. He was 34th in the NFL in receiving yards and graded out noticeably below average on ProFootballFocus, finishing 91^st out of 105 eligible. It was obvious when he went into that holdout that a down year like that was a possibility, but he didn’t seem to care. He was part of the reason why the Steelers missed the playoffs.

And then he chased the money and went to Miami, a team with a young quarterback that had made the playoffs just once in the previous 11 seasons. It was very possible he’d just coast once he had the money and it seems like he did. He’s a one trick pony anyway. He’s got great speed, but he’s still not a good route runner and the NFL has caught on to him over the past few seasons. It’s very possible the 1257 yards he had in his breakout 2010 season will be his career best when his career is all said and done. Some are saying that a new offensive coordinator, with Bill Lazor taking over from Mike Sherman, will help Wallace, but I’m skeptical.

With Wallace disappointing last year, Brian Hartline led the Dolphins in receiving yards for the 2^nd straight season. He’s put up pretty identical 74/1083/1 and 76/1016/4 seasons over the past 2 seasons, since the 2009 4^th round pick broke out in 2012. He’s not an explosive athlete, a touchdown threat, or a deep threat, but he knows how to get open and Tannehill is obviously comfortable throwing to him. There’s a good chance he leads them in receiving for the 3^rd straight season. He’s averaged 1.84 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons.

The Dolphins have a three-way competition for the 3^rd receiver job. Brandon Gibson had a strong start to last season in the slot, after the Dolphins gave him a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal last off-season even though he hadn’t shown himself to be anything more than a marginal receiver in his career, grading out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in his career prior and averaging 1.34 yards per route run, and even though he had played just 175 slot snaps in his career prior. Gibson flashed in 6 games, catching 30 passes for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns on 196 routes run, an average of 1.66 YPA, but then tore his patellar tendon. Gibson has youth on his side, but a torn patellar tendon is arguably the most serious lower body injury a player can sustain. If healthy, he could have another solid season, as he’s graded out above average in each of last 2 seasons, but he’s unproven and coming off of a very serious injury.

Rishard Matthews stepped up as the slot receiver in his absence and flashed, grading out above average, though he did average just 1.23 yards per route run, catching 41 passes for 448 yards and 2 touchdowns on 363 routes run. However, he’s still pretty unproven, as the 2012 7^th round pick played just 236 snaps as a rookie, grading out below average, and he’s reportedly showing up late to practices and meetings this off-season, which kind of has him in the coaches’ doghouse. That could cost him the slot receiver job. Meanwhile, Jarvis Landry was their 2^nd round pick and he’ll be in the mix as well. If he or Matthews wins the job, the Dolphins could cut Gibson and save 1.7 million on the cap and 2.7 million in cash, rather than keeping him as an expensive depth receiver.

The Dolphins brought in Dustin Keller to be their starting tight end last off-season, on what seemed like a smart, one year, buy low, prove it deal given to a former 1^st round pick who caught 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2011 from Mark Sanchez, before missing 8 games and being limited in several others in 2012. However, Keller suffered a devastating knee injury in the pre-season and didn’t play a snap. The injury was so bad that it is threatening his career, as he remains unsigned as of this writing.

The Dolphins really needed someone to step up in Keller’s absence and they found that someone with Charles Clay, a 2011 6^th round pick who broke out last season in his 3^rd year in the league. Clay caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns on 458 routes run, an average of 1.62 yards per route run, which ranked 11^th among eligible tight ends. He was Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked tight end in terms of pass catching grade, though the 6-3 245 pounder didn’t offer much as a blocker, grading out 14^th worst at his position in that aspect. Clay is still a one year wonder, after playing a combined 744 snaps in his first 2 years in the league and catching a combined 34 passes, but he could have another solid season as a pass catcher this season, which would set him up for a solid payday going into free agency next off-season.

Dion Sims is the favorite to be the #2 tight end and blocking specialist tight end again, but the 4^th round rookie struggled mightily as a run blocker last season, grading out 11^th worst at his position in run blocking grade and 6^th worst overall. He played 280 snaps and only ran 81 routes, catching 6 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown. Arthur Lynch, a 5^th round rookie, could push him for snaps if he continues to struggle. Michael Egnew, a 2012 3^rd round pick who has played just 255 snaps in 2 seasons, could also be in the mix, but he’s also squarely on the roster bubble.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Dolphins were a poor running team last season, averaging 4.12 yards per carry and only attempting 349 runs to 594 passes. Even that was buoyed by Tannehill averaging 5.95 yards per carry on 40 carries. Part of it was the team’s inability to run block, as they graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 30th ranked run blocking team. They should be better in that aspect this season with their revamped offensive line. However, part of it was the team’s lack of talent at the position.

In order to attempt to remedy this, the Dolphins brought in Knowshon Moreno this off-season. Knowshon Moreno had over 1500 yards from scrimmage last season (1038 rushing and 548 receiving), but was still available about 3 weeks into free agency. There were reasons for that. The running back position has been strongly devalued in the NFL. We’re in an off-season where no running back has gotten more than 4 million dollars yearly and going into a draft where no running back went in the first round of the draft for the second straight year.

Also, as much production as Moreno had last year, much of it was the product of Peyton Manning. Moreno rarely faced stacked boxes and, much more often than not, was running against boxes of 6 or fewer defenders. In spite of that, he actually just rushed for 4.31 yards per carry, which isn’t a spectacular average. He was just Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked running back in terms of running grade. He’s a talented pass catcher and pass protector, but he’s an average runner at best.

He also missed 20 games from 2010-2012 and had just 426 touches over those 3 seasons. There’s a reason why the Broncos showed no interest in bringing in back with Montee Ball behind him on the depth chart. On top of all this, Moreno reportedly showed up for off-season practices out of shape and is dealing with a potentially very serious knee injury that could keep him from having much of an impact at all this season.

Lamar Miller is currently the front runner to be the starter for the 2^nd straight season. Miller, a 2012 4^th round pick, rushed for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns on 177 carries last season, an average of 4.01 yards per carry. In 2 seasons in the league, Miller has averaged 4.21 yards per carry, showing why he fell to the 4^th round in the first place. I don’t expect him to be much better this season. Assuming Moreno can’t do much this season, Daniel Thomas should be the 2^nd running back again this season. Thomas struggled last season like he has in his whole career, as the 2011 2^nd round pick averaged 3.72 yards per carry last season and has averaged 3.59 yards per carry for his career. Mike Gillislee, a 2013 5^th round pick who played 9 snaps as a rookie, could also be in the mix for carries. It’s not a particularly talented group.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the Dolphins had a solid defense last season that allowed them to remain competitive despite issues on offense. The strongest part of that defense was their defensive line, where they have a ton of talent and a ton of depth. The Dolphins had a trio of talented defensive tackles in Randy Starks, Jared Odrick, and Paul Soliai, who graded out 7th, 13th, and 20th respectively on Pro Football Focus among defensive tackles on 742 snaps, 878 snaps, and 526 snaps respectively last season.

That depth was threatened this off-season as Starks and Soliai hit free agency. However, they were able to re-sign Starks, which was a huge move, especially on a very reasonable, 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Starks is an underrated, under-mentioned player who has graded out above average in each of the last 6 seasons from 2008-2013 since becoming a starter, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2009 and 7th ranked defensive tackle in 2013.

He has scheme versatility at 6-3 312 and can play both 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 and defensive tackle in a 4-3. He’s also equally good as a pass rusher and run stopper. Marcell Dareus was the only other defensive tackle to grade out in the top-10 in both run stopping grade and pass rushing grade last season. Even though he’s going into his age 31 season, he’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career. His contract was perfect for the stage of his career he is in.

The Dolphins lost Soliai to the Falcons, but the big run stopper was the least important of the Dolphins’ 3 defensive tackles last season. They brought in Earl Mitchell from Houston to replace him as that 3rd defensive tackle behind Starks and Odrick. I’m intrigued to see Mitchell in a 4-3, the scheme in which he played in college at Arizona. He was a 3rd round pick in 2010, but the 6-2 292 pounder was miscast as a 3-4 nose tackle in Houston over the last 3 seasons. Even still, he wasn’t terrible, grading out around average in all 3 seasons in a part-time role, so there’s a chance he can become a solid contributor in a 4-3. The Dolphins probably overpaid, giving him 16 million over 4 years with 9 million of that guaranteed, but he’s definitely not bad as a 3^rd defensive tackle, even if he may be a step down from Soliai.

Of course, Odrick remains as well. Odrick had a fantastic season last year, grading out 13^th among defensive tackles and excelling as a pass rusher. He remains a one year wonder, but he was a 1^st round pick in 2010 and last year was the first season he was allowed to play his natural role as a 4-3 penetrating defensive tackle. It’s no surprise that he had by far his best season in that role.

Odrick missed all but one game in his rookie season with injury and was just about average on 597 snaps in 2011 as a 3-4 defensive end. The Dolphins switched to a 4-3 going into the 2012 season, which should have helped him, but they decided to play him primarily at 4-3 defensive end, which was a bad fit for the 6-5 304 pounder. He struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked 4-3 defensive end. He was solid against the run, but couldn’t generate any pass rush, ranking 3^rd worst in that aspect. He could easily have another strong year as a 4-3 defensive tackle in 2014, which would set him up for a big payday going into free agency in 2015.

At defensive end, the Dolphins have so much talent that they couldn’t even get the 3^rd overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Dion Jordan, onto the field much last season and reportedly considered trading him this off-season. Jordan played 339 lackluster snaps as a rookie, but obviously still has an enormous upside. He should, at least, leap Derrick Shelby on the depth chart for the #3 defensive end job this season. Shelby is a solid reserve, grading out about average on 667 snaps in 2 seasons since going undrafted in 2012, but he doesn’t nearly have Jordan’s upside.

Jordan should also eat into the snaps of Oliver Vernon somewhat. Vernon, for some reason, led this talented defensive line in snaps played last season with 929, even though he graded out worst among the unit. He wasn’t awful, but he was below average, playing the run decently, but grading out below average as a pass rusher. He did have 11 sacks, but only 5 hits and 32 hurries on 531 pass rush snaps, a mediocre rate of 9.0%. The 2012 3^rd round pick showed more of the same on 445 snaps as a rookie, as he had 3 sacks, 7 hits, and 11 hurries on 289 pass rush snaps, a 7.3% rate. Having him cede some pass rush snaps to Jordan would obviously be a good idea that would help this team.

On the other side, Cameron Wake starts and is one of the better edge rushers in the game. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked 4-3 defensive end last season, arguably the worst season of his career. He was #1 among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012, #1 among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2011, and #3 among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2010. Even in 2009, his first year in the league coming over from Canada, he would have been Pro Football Focus’ #3 ranked 4-3 defensive end if he had been eligible, despite playing just 167 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out higher and he had an absurd 7 sacks 6 hits, and 20 hurries on 134 pass rush snaps, a rate of 24.6%, meaning he disrupted the quarterback on about a quarter of his snaps.

He’s a dominant pass rusher who holds up against the run at 6-2 241 as well. Last season, he graded out 2^nd at his position in pure pass rush grade, with 10 sacks, 20 hits, and 41 hurries on 416 pass rush snaps, a very impressive rate of 17.1%. The fact that he showed slight decline in general last season, hampered by a knee injury, now going into his age 32 season, is a minor concern, but I fully expect him to be one of the top few edge rushers in the NFL again this season. The Dolphins have so much depth that they were able to keep his snaps at 694 for the season, which should help his longevity. If, for whatever reason, he starts showing more decline, Dion Jordan could be his long-term replacement in the next few seasons.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Dolphins’ linebacking corps featured two big contract free agents struggling mightily in their first year with the team, a big part of the reason why the Dolphins disappointed after being named off-season winners because of their spending spree. The Dolphins revamped the unit last off-season, releasing aging veterans Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett and replacing them with highly-paid, one-year wonder players who were younger. It backfired big time, as Dansby was one of the better middle linebackers in the league last season, Burnett played solid as an every down linebacker, and Ellerbe and Wheeler showed proved to be nothing more than one year wonders.

Wheeler was Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2012, which got him a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal from the Dolphins last off-season, even though, prior to 2012, he had graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2008. Also prior to 2012, he never had played more than 537 snaps in a season, so he was the definition of a one year wonder. Wheeler struggled mightily last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst 4-3 outside linebacker, especially struggling against the run. There are also reports that Wheeler got complacent once he got paid, which is why he struggled so much last season. Now going into his age 30 season, Wheeler is still on the team only because his 5 million dollar salary was guaranteed for this season.

Ellerbe has a similar story. Ellerbe, a 2009 undrafted free agent, maxed out at 456 snaps in a season from 2009-2011, but he had a solid 2012 season, grading out 14^th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 667 regular season snaps and then following that up with a strong post-season, en route to a Super Bowl victory by the Ravens. The one year wonder got a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal from the Dolphins and then proved to be a one year wonder last season, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 50^th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Like Wheeler’s 2014 salary, Ellerbe’s 6 million dollar salary for 2014 is fully guaranteed, which is why he’s still on the roster. Both will have to play much better to have any hope of staying on the roster for 2015, after the guaranteed money runs out.

In order to make the most of this situation, the Dolphins will be shuffling things around in their linebacking corps, moving Ellerbe to outside linebacker and demoting him out of sub-packages, making him a two-down linebacker. Koa Misi will then play every down in the middle. They could be improved in the linebacking corps, but only because they can’t possibly be as bad as last season, not because this reshuffling is likely to make things better.

Misi was their two-down linebacker last season. He was their best linebacker and in that sense it makes sense letting him get more playing time, but, while he was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in terms of run grade, he struggled in coverage. The collegiate defensive end has never been good in coverage in his career. The 2010 2^nd round pick has also never been anything more than a two-down player in his career, maxing out at 619 snaps thus far in the 4 seasons he’s been in the league.

Having Ellerbe only play part-time should be good for them and he’s better as a run stopper than he is in coverage, but he could still struggle. Wheeler could be better, but only by default and ideally you don’t want him to be playing every down. If Ellerbe and Wheeler continue to struggle, the Dolphins don’t have a ton of internal options. Jelani Jenkins was a 2013 4^th round pick, but he struggled on 127 snaps as a rookie. Jordan Tripp, meanwhile, is a 5^th round rookie. It’s unlikely things will be fixed with this unit until they can release Wheeler and Ellerbe next off-season.

Grade: C

Secondary

The one signing from the Dolphins’ last off-season that worked out was the one-year, prove it deal, worth 5.5 million that they gave to Brent Grimes, who coming off of a torn Achilles. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked cornerback last season and the Dolphins rewarded him with a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal this off-season. That’s a lot of money for a player going into his age 31 season that has Grimes’ injury history, missing 19 games from 2011-2012.

It was a good deal though. When healthy, Grimes is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback in 2010, 3rd ranked in 2011, and 2nd ranked in 2013. He joined Antoine Winfield, Brandon Flowers, and Jason McCourty as the only 4 cornerbacks to grade out in the top-10 in 3 of the last 4 seasons. The cornerback position is one of the most inconsistent in the NFL on a year-to-year basis. Just two cornerbacks graded in the top-15 on Pro Football Focus in both 2012 and 2013. One was Richard Sherman (#2 and #6) and the other was Jason McCourty (#6 and #10).

The issue is opposite Grimes. The Dolphins signed Cortland Finnegan to a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal this off-season, a move that was subtraction by addition. He’s expected to be the starter opposite Grimes. Finnegan was a train wreck last season with the Rams. He only played 367 snaps in 7 games for a variety of reasons, including injuries and poor performance, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked cornerback. He allowed 26 of 34 completion for 353 yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception, a QB rating against of 136.0 that was 3rd worst among eligible cornerbacks. He also committed 6 penalties. There’s a reason why the Rams cut him 2 years into an absurd 5-year, 50 million dollar deal.

That was the worst season of his career, but he’s going into his age 30 season so he’s probably not getting any better any time soon. He was great in his contract year with the Titans in 2011, which is why he got such a big deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback. However, that’s the only year in the last 4 years that he’s been even remotely good. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked cornerback in 2010 and ranked 86th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks in 2012. He’s a serious downgrade from Nolan Carroll, an average starting cornerback who is now in Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins have a trio of young, unproven cornerbacks who could push Finnegan for his job. Jamar Taylor and Will Davis were the Dolphins’ 2^nd and 3^rd round picks respectively in 2013 and played 45 and 65 snaps respectively last season. Walt Aikens, meanwhile, is a 4^th round rookie. Jimmy Wilson, a cornerback/safety tweener, will probably continue to play as the slot cornerback. He struggled in that role in 2012, but the 2011 7^th round pick was better in 2013.

Wilson won’t be able to play much, if any, safety this year, where Reshad Jones and Louis Delmas are clearly set as the starters. Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked safety in 2012, but he fell all the way down to 68^th (out of 86 eligible) in 2013. He also struggled in 2011 in his first year as a starter and only played 152 snaps as a rookie in 2010. The 2010 5^th round pick is the definition of a one-year wonder. He should be better this season, but it’s very possible that he’ll never be as good as he was in 2012 again. The Dolphins owe him a guaranteed 6.76 million in 2015, meaning he’ll be around for at least 2 more seasons, so they better hope he bounces back. He got a 4-year, 30 million dollar extension going into his contract year last off-season, after his big 2012 season.

Delmas, meanwhile, was a free agent signing this off-season, after he was cut by the Lions. Delmas has a history of injury, missing 13 games in 2011-2012 combined. Those injuries hampered him when he was on the field as well, as he graded out below average in both seasons. However, he played all 16 games last season and he played pretty well, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked safety. His injury issues seem to be behind him for now. When healthy, he is a solid player, showing it last year and in 2009 and 2010, when he ranked 21^st and 31^st respectively among safeties on Pro Football Focus. The Lions cut him because it saved 6 million on the cap and in cash, but the Dolphins are only giving him 3.5 million over 1 season, which is much more reasonable.

The issue is he’s a downgrade from Chris Clemons, who is now in Houston. Clemons was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked safety last season and 25th ranked safety in 2012 in two years as a starter with the Dolphins, his only two years as a starter. Clemons only got 2.7 million over 2 seasons from the Texans so re-signing him, instead of signing Delmas, would have been the better move. At the end of the day though, Delmas should be a solid starter as long as he’s healthy and on the field.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Dolphins were essentially a roughly 6-10 team that managed to go 8-8 in 2013. They should be better this season as they overhauled the offensive line, but they overpaid for two starters in free agency, they reached for a starter in the first round of the draft, and they still have issues upfront. They also lost three players defensively, Paul Soliai, Chris Clemons, and Nolan Carroll and their replacements are all downgrades.

If Ryan Tannehill can break out in his 3^rd year in the league behind a revamped offensive line, they could make a playoff push. They also have a trio of players defensively who, while they are one year wonders, could have bounce back years in 2014, after rough 2013s and strong 2012s. However, I have the Dolphins as the 3^rd most talented team in the AFC East and out of the playoffs right now. I’ll have official wins predictions for each team at the end of all my previews.

Prediction: 6-10 3rd in AFC East

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Buffalo Bills 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 16, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Bills drafted EJ Manuel in the first round in 2013, the only team in the league that decided that a quarterback was worth going in the first round in that weak draft class. It was a surprise pick as Geno Smith seemed like the most likely quarterback to be first off the board and it looked like there might not even be a quarterback drafted in the first round, but the Bills fell in love with Manuel’s upside and drafted him at 16 after a trade down.

The Bills’ desperation for a franchise quarterback makes sense. They haven’t made the playoffs since 1999, the longest playoff drought in the NFL, and they are 88-136 since that season. They haven’t had a true franchise quarterback since Jim Kelly left in 1996, last whiffing on JP Losman in the first round in 2004. It’s not that they’ve been particularly awful over that stretch, only twice going 4-12 or worse, but they have been consistently mediocre, winning 6 to 9 games in 11 of the last 14 seasons, including 7 seasons of 6 or 7 wins.

Manuel looked like a reach as a rookie though. Ignore the injuries (several lower body injuries limited him to 706 snaps in 10 games), Manuel really struggled on the field, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked quarterback. He completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and even struggled, efficiency wise, as a runner, even though that’s supposed to be an added bonus he offers teams. He rushed for just 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 carries, a pathetic 3.51 YPC.

He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but so far his career is not off to a great start. If Manuel continues to struggle, backup Thad Lewis, who flashed in Manuel’s absence last season, could become the starter and get more opportunities later this season. The 2010 undrafted free agent out of Duke got his first significant action last season and completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, and rushed for 52 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries (2.17 YPC). He was Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible on 361 snaps. It’s obviously a small sample size for a former undrafted free agent and he wasn’t incredibly impressive, but if Manuel continues to struggle, he might get a shot.

It’s a shame that the Bills couldn’t get strong quarterback play last season because their defense was so good, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.58% rate, 6^th best in the NFL. However, their offense moved the chains at a 66.27% rate, 28^th best in the NFL. They still were 19^th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at -1.31%, which was still slightly better than their record. This is a talented team that could sneak into the playoffs if they get good quarterback play, but I’m not confident about that.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Bills obviously made upgrading their supporting cast around EJ Manuel a priority this off-season, drafting Sammy Watkins 4^th overall. Clearly they fell in love with the Clemson speedster during the draft process as the Bills traded their 9^th overall pick, a 2015 1^st round pick, and a 2015 4^th round pick to move up to get him. They better hope he becomes the type of player they think he can become and fast, otherwise the Bills could be giving up two top-10 picks for one. For comparison’s sake, the Falcons traded two first round picks in the 20s, a 2^nd round pick, and two 4^th round picks for Julio Jones. Watkins is going to need to become at least that good for the Bills for this move to make sense in hindsight.

I’m skeptical he can become good enough fast enough, not because of his lack of talent, but because wide receivers usually take a year or so to get adjusted to the NFL. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. If Watkins can do that as a rookie, considering the poor quarterback play that the Bills could easily have, it should be considered a success, but even if he does that, I’m skeptical it’ll be enough right away to boost their offense enough for them to make the playoffs.

Watkins could still become their #1 receiver right away. He’ll be replacing Steve Johnson in that role, as Johnson was traded to San Francisco for a 4^th round pick for financial reasons. Johnson had 3 good years from 2010-2012, playing all 48 games and posting almost identical 82/1073/10, 76/1004/7, 79/1046/6 lines in those 3 seasons respectively. However, Johnson struggled in his first season in the Bills’ new offensive scheme under Doug Marrone, missing 4 games and catching 52 passes for 597 yards and 3 touchdowns in a run heavy, poorly quarterbacked offense. He averaged about 1.56 yards per route run on 383 routes run, down from 1.95 to 1.83 to 1.90 in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively and he caught just 54.7% of his targets. He graded out about average on Pro Football Focus in pass catching grade. He was Pro Football Focus’ 54^th ranked wide receiver last season, after grading out 40^th, 19^th, and 22^nd in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively.

The Bills also traded for Mike Williams this off-season, trading a 6th round pick to Tampa Bay. They’ll be paying him a 1.8 million dollar salary this season. Considering Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him, it’s a worthwhile gamble with little downside and potentially high upside. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9), grading out well above average on Pro Football Focus in each season. However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns, grading out well below average, and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury.

After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings. He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together. All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. His quarterback play could hold him back though.

Williams and Watkins will work in 3-wide receiver sets with Robert Woods and they could all play a similar amount of snaps. Watkins and Woods can both play in the slot and they’re all similar caliber players at this point in their respective careers. Woods was a 2^nd round pick in 2013 and caught 40 passes for 587 yards and 3 touchdowns. He averaged 1.21 yards per route run on 484 routes run and caught 40 of 81 targets, 49.4%. He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, grading out 79^th, but he could be better in his 2^nd year in the league.

The Bills also have a pair of recent 3^rd round picks in TJ Graham and Marquise Goodwin at wide receiver. Graham, a 2012 3^rd round pick, could be on the roster bubble though after struggling in his first 2 years in the league. He was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked wide receiver in 2012 and 6^th worst ranked wide receiver in 2013. He played 835 snaps last season so simply having him not play a significant role this season will be helpful. Goodwin, meanwhile, was a 2013 3^rd round pick who impressed on 319 snaps as a rookie. He’ll probably slot in as the 4^th receiver and could see significant playing time if injuries strike.

The one area the Bills didn’t upgrade on offense this off-season that they should have was tight end. Scott Chandler was retained on a cheap salary. He was actually the Bills’ leading receiver last season, catching 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns, catching 53 passes on 79 targets, 67.1%, but he only averaged 1.33 yards per route run on 492 routes run. He was a mediocre blocker as well and graded out below average on Pro Football Focus. Bringing him back on a 2-year, 4.75 million dollar deal wasn’t an issue, but they should have brought in another tight end.

Lee Smith was their #2 tight end last season and he was a solid blocker, playing 437 snaps, but he only ran 88 routes, so when he was on the field, it was pretty obvious that it would be a run. Adding a pass catching tight end would have allowed them to be more successful passing the ball out of two-tight end sets, which would have allowed them to run more two-tight end sets. That would be a valuable addition for a run heavy team and give them added versatility that they didn’t have last season. Smith caught 5 passes for 78 yards last season and has 13 catches for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns in his career. There’s some talent for Manuel to work with in the receiving corps, especially if they get both a strong rookie year from Watkins and a bounce back year from Mike Williams, but expecting both of those things to happen isn’t wise.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills also added this off-season at right tackle, drafting Cyrus Kouandjio in the 2^nd round. He could easily start at right tackle as a rookie at some point, if not week 1. Erik Pears is the incumbent. He’s heading into an age 32 contract year and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 56^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible, holding up in pass protection, but struggling mightily as a run blocker. The veteran also struggled in 2012. Opposite him at right tackle, Cordy Glenn, a 2012 2^nd round pick, has developed into one of the better blindside protectors in the game. After a solid rookie year in 2012, when he graded out 33^rd at his position, he ranked 13^th in 2013. He could be even better, going into his 3^rd year in the league, in 2014.

The Bills also made an off-season addition at left guard, which was needed because their play at that position was awful last season, after they lost Andy Levitre to free agency the off-season before. Colin Brown started the first 5 games of last season and was horrendous, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked guard despite playing just 400 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. Doug Legursky took over the starting job and was better, but only by default. He was Pro Football Focus’ 63^rd ranked guard out of 81 eligible on 780 snaps.

The issue is that the player they brought in to start at that position isn’t much better. In fact, he could be worse. For some reason, the Bills decided to give a 4-year, 13.5 million dollar deal to Chris Williams this off-season, even though he was Pro Football Focus’ 74^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. This isn’t anything new for him. The 14^th overall pick by the Bears in 2008 has been a massive bust, struggling at pretty much every position on the offensive line in his career. With the exception of his rookie year, when he played 16 snaps, he’s never graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t a starter in 2012, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 70^th ranked guard out of 82 eligible in 2010 and 60^th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2011. The Bills drafted Cyril Richardson in the 5^th round and, if Williams continues to struggle, he could see playing time, though he might not be much of an upgrade as a rookie.

Right guard is better, as Kraig Urbik starts there. The 2009 4^th round pick has graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons with the Bills as a starter, grading out as the 18^th, 25^th, and 21^st ranked guard in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. Eric Wood remains at center, but the 2009 1^st round pick has graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons, including last season when he was Pro Football Focus’ 26^th ranked center out of 35 eligible. There’s some talent on this offensive line, but there are also a lot of problems. They’ll need a rookie to step up if they’re going to be even an average offensive line and that seems unlikely at the moment.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

CJ Spiller, the 9^th overall pick in 2010, was supposed to have a huge breakout year last year as the feature back in Buffalo’s run heavy offense. He was very impressive in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked running back, averaging 6.01 yards per carry on 207 carries, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added 43 catches for 459 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Spiller only played 394 snaps last season for two reasons.

The first reason was injury. He only missed 1 game with injury, but he was limited in others. He had single digit carries in 3 games and showed serious inconsistency, with 5 games in which he had 23 rushing yards or fewer. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry, rushing for 933 yards and 2 touchdowns on 202 carries, but inconsistency was a serious problem. He also only had 33 catches for 185 yards, doing so 145 routes run, a mediocre average of 1.28 yards per route run.

That leads into the second reason why he played so few snaps, which was his struggles on passing downs. He wasn’t awful as a pass catcher, but he was as a pass protector, allowing 1 sack, 3 hits, and 3 hurries on just 21 pass block snaps. As a result, Fred Jackson played the majority of the pass snaps (411 to 171) and the majority of the snaps in general (676 to 394). Jackson isn’t quite as good of a runner, but he still rushed for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns on 206 carries (4.32 YPC) and caught 47 passes for 387 yards and a touchdown.

Spiller could have better health in 2014, which will help him as a rusher and help him play more snaps. He could also bounce back as a pass catcher. The pass protection is the bigger issue though. 300+ touches are his for the taking in this run heavy offense and he could be incredibly efficient, but there’s no guarantee he takes them. There’s obviously incentive for him having a big year, as he heads into his contract year.

The Bills also might need him to do that as Jackson heads into his age 33 season. Jackson has defied father time before, doing so just last year obviously, and it helps that he got a late start to his career, with just 1394 touches in his career. However, he’s still very old for a running back and a year removed from a 2-year stretch in which he missed 10 games and a 2012 season in which he rushed for 3.80 YPC on 115 carries.

The Bills traded a 4^th round pick for Bryce Brown to add another running back to the mix. The 2012 7^th round pick of the Eagles has flashed in 2 seasons, rushing for 878 yards and 6 touchdowns on 190 carries, an average of 4.62 YPC, while adding 21 catches for 140 yards. He didn’t play a lot of college football for a variety of reasons, which is why he fell to the 7^th round, but he was a top high school recruit and clearly has talent. He had an issue with fumbles as a rookie, with 4 fumbles on 128 touches, but he didn’t fumble once on 83 touches last season so those could be behind him. He’s a solid 3^rd running back. There’s definitely talent at the running back position, but there are also question marks.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

I mentioned how well the Bills played last season defensively. Their front 7 play had a lot to do that, but they might not have quite the same level of success this season as they lost defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, who did a fantastic job last season in his first year on the job, coming over from the Jets. He ended up getting a head coaching job in Cleveland this off-season. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has had a fair amount of success in his career, but he could still be a downgrade and he’s moving them back to a 4-3, which might not be the best scheme for them, given how well they played in a 3-4 last season.

The switch probably won’t hurt them at defensive tackle, where they have arguably the best defensive tackle duo in the NFL in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams. Williams has been a dominant defensive lineman over the past 6 seasons, playing 4-3 defensive tackle, 3-4 nose tackle, and 3-4 defensive end. He missed most of the 2011 season with injury, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked defensive tackle in 2008, 13^th ranked defensive tackle in 2009, 1^st ranked defensive tackle in 2010, 3^rd ranked defensive tackle in 2012, and 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013. The scheme switch shouldn’t affect him, though the fact that he’s going into his age 31 season is a very minor concern.

Marcell Dareus, meanwhile, was the 3^rd overall pick in the loaded 2011 draft and is now going into his 4^th season in the league, only his age 25 season. The Bills already picked up his 5^th year option and for good reason. He’s played both 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 nose tackle in his career, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13^th ranked defensive tackle in both 2011 and 2012 and their 6^th ranked defensive tackle in 2013. The scheme switch shouldn’t affect him either and he could be even better in his 4^th year in the league.

Someone the scheme switch could affect negatively though is Jerry Hughes. Hughes is a former 1^st round pick of the Colts, going 31^st overall in 2010, and looked like a bust in the first 2 years of his career with the Colts, struggling on just 240 snaps combined at 4-3 defensive end. He was a little better on 610 snaps in his 3^rd year in the league as a 3-4 rush linebacker in 2012 on 610 snaps and broke out in Buffalo last season as a rush linebacker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 3-4 rush linebacker, including 3^rd in pure pass rush grade, on 621 snaps. He actually led all players in pass rush efficiency with 11 sacks, 9 hits, and 31 hurries on 318 pass rush snaps, an average of 16.0%, essentially a pressure every 6 snaps.

There’s obviously concern though with him switching back to 4-3 defensive end and with Mike Pettine being gone. He obviously has natural talent, which is why he went in the first round, but he’s still a one year wonder and losing both the defensive coordinator and the scheme in which he broke out last season has to be concerning. In order to deal with this concern, the Bills are planning on having Manny Lawson play the majority of the snaps in base packages, so Hughes can focus on just rushing the passer out of sub packages, something the athletic, but undersized Hughes (6-2 255, ex-collegiate running back) could still excel at in Jim Schwartz’ wide nine defense.

Manny Lawson is another former first round pick, going in the first round in 2006. He’s never lived up to that, but he’s had some moderate success as a part-time run stopper over the past few seasons. However, he’s been doing that as both a 3-4 and 4-3 outside linebacker and has never played 4-3 defensive end in his career, though that was his collegiate position. He’s stopped the run well as a linebacker, but he’s only 6-5 240 and he could have trouble stopping the run as a down defensive lineman. He’s probably the smallest base defensive end in the NFL.

It would make more sense for him to continue playing outside linebacker and play the two-down outside linebacker role. In that situation, they could use Alan Branch at defensive end and have him play essentially the Red Bryant role, as they use in Jacksonville, Seattle. Branch is a talented defensive lineman, but doesn’t really have a role right now with the switch to a 4-3. He was two-down run stopping defensive end last season who didn’t really play in sub packages. He struggled mightily as a pass rusher, grading 4^th worst among 3-4 defensive ends as a pass rusher, but he was 7^th best as a run stopper and 20^th best overall on 576 snaps. He also was Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive tackle in 2011, including 3^rd as a run stopper. He could play a depth role at defensive tackle, but it might be a better use of him to have him play as a base defensive end. Either way, it looks like he’s another player who the scheme switch will negatively affect.

Mario Williams will be an every down defensive end on the other side. He’s another player who probably won’t be affected by the scheme change. He’s been a solid, but unspectacular player in pretty much every season since he was drafted first overall in 2006 by the Texans, grading out well above average in each of the past 7 seasons, maxing out at 11^th in 2009. Last season, he was 17^th among 3-4 rush linebackers. He’s played both 4-3 end and 3-4 outside linebacker and has been equally good in both schemes. He’s very durable and has played all 16 games and 900+ snaps in 6 of 8 professional seasons. He might not necessarily be worth the 6-year, 96 million dollar deal the Bills gave him before the 2012 season, but he’s an obvious asset for them and should continue to be one this season. He’s part of a dominant defensive line, but the scheme change could hurt the unit a little bit.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Kiko Alonso is another one of their talented front 7 players. The 2013 2^nd round pick was a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked middle linebacker. He excelled in coverage, with only Derrick Johnson grading out better in coverage than he did last season, as he allowed just 237 yards on 44 attempts and picked off 4 passes. He allowed just 0.43 yards per coverage snap, best at his position, and displayed excellent closing speed. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, now moving to 4-3 outside linebacker, where he’ll play every down. This assumes he won’t miss Mike Pettine’s tutelage and scheme though.

The rest of the Bills’ linebacking corps is really up for grabs though. Brandon Spikes was a big free agent acquisition, as the Bills paid him 3.5 million on a one-year deal for him to come over from the Patriots. Spikes is pretty much just a two-down part-time player though. Brandon Spikes was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season, but that’s a little misleading. That was fueled solely by his run play as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ first ranked middle linebacker in terms of run grade by a mile, but he ranked 38th out of 55 middle linebackers in terms of coverage grade. He also played only 694 snaps as a part-time two-down player. He’s a pure base package player in a league that’s devaluing pure base package players, though he’s an excellent one at that.

This isn’t a new thing for him. In 2012, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, including 1st as a run stopper, playing just 742 snaps. In 2011, he graded out 18th among middle linebackers, 19th in run grade, and played 364 snaps. In 2010, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, 4th in run grade, and played 356 snaps. He also has a history of injury and issues with the coaching staff. All this being said, he is phenomenal at what he does.

The 2^nd linebacker role in sub packages is very much up for grabs though. Da’Norris Searcy, a hybrid safety/linebacker at 5-11 223, would often play down around the line of scrimmage as that 2^nd linebacker in sub packages last season, meaning the Bills would essentially use three safeties, but the Bills lost Jairus Byrd this off-season so Searcy might have to focus more on being a pure safety. Preston Brown was their 3^rd round pick and he could have a big role right away, but it’s hard to count on him.

Brown is in the mix at the other outside linebacker position as well, which is also up for grabs. I mentioned that Manny Lawson will be moving to 4-3 defensive end, but that might not last long. Nigel Bradham is also an option. The 2012 4^th round pick has flashed on 690 snaps over the last two seasons, excelling against the run and holding up in coverage, and could be ready for a bigger role. Ty Powell, a 2013 7^th round pick who played 15 snaps as a rookie, is reportedly also in the mix. There’s talent in the linebacking corps, but things are still in flux.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned earlier the Bills’ loss of Jairus Byrd this off-season. Along with losing Mike Pettine, his absence is part of the reason why the Bills might not be quite as good defensively as they were last season. Byrd got a well-deserved 6-year, 54 million dollar deal with the Saints. He’s one of the top safeties in the game. Last year, he was “only” Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked safety and that was because he missed 5 games and only played 646 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher than him. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked safety in 2011 and 2^nd ranked safety in 2012. Only Eric Weddle has also graded out in the top-8 in each of the last 3 seasons. He’ll be very tough to replace.

Da’Norris Searcy is one option to replace him, as he did last year when Byrd was hurt, but the 2011 4^th round pick graded out below average on 756 snaps last season and he could also play some linebacker in sub packages. Duke Williams and Jonathan Meeks are the other options. They were 4^th and 5^th round picks in the 2013 draft respectively, but they played 36 snaps and 0 snaps respectively last season. There was some talk that free agent acquisition Corey Graham could convert from cornerback and play safety, but for now he’s at cornerback. It might be something they revisit later in the off-season. It’s an obvious downgrade from Byrd either way.

The Bills did lock up one safety long-term as they gave a 4-year, 26 million dollar to Aaron Williams. He is locked into the other safety spot. Williams struggled in his first two years in the league on 1007 snaps as a cornerback, after being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011, but found success last season at safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28^th ranked safety and leading the secondary in snaps played with 955. The Bills probably jumped the gun on that extension, making him the 12^th highest paid safety in the NFL in terms of average salary, when he was still a one-year wonder and when he still had one year left on his deal. The Bills better hope he doesn’t regress without Pettine. He should still be an asset though.

Leodis McKelvin is probably the Bills’ top cornerback. McKelvin was a bust as the 11^th overall pick in 2008, but he broke out last season, at least at cornerback (he was a very solid return man prior to last season). He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked cornerback and allowed 46.1% completion. The Bills will have to hope he doesn’t prove to be a one-year wonder without Pettine. He graded out above average in every season from 2010-2012, but he’s never graded out this high before and he never played as many snaps over that time period as the 947 snaps he played last season. He played just 868 snaps combined in 2011 and 2012.

Stephon Gilmore will be the other starting cornerback. I thought the 10th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft would have a breakout year in his 2nd year in the league in 2013. In his first 5 NFL games in 2012, he struggled, allowing 19 completions on 31 attempts for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns. This was completely understandable as, even for a talented prospect such as Gilmore, the transition to the NFL can be a tough one, especially for a cornerback and especially for a cornerback frequently asked to cover opponent’s #1 receivers from day one.

However, in week 6 of 2012, Gilmore seemed to hit his stride and played very well from there on out. He allowed 30 completions on 56 attempts for 409 yards. He didn’t allow a touchdown the rest of the way and intercepted his only pass of the season week 13. He did commit 11 penalties in those 11 games, but I expected that to improve as he matured. He didn’t have that breakout year in 2013 though as he broke his hand and missed the first 5 weeks of the season, which seemed to put him behind the 8-ball. He graded out below average for the second straight season. He could have that breakout year in 2014, the naturally talented cornerback’s 3^rd year in the league. After all, he doesn’t even turn 24 until September, but there’s no guarantee there.

Corey Graham will, at the very least, line up as the slot cornerback in sub packages, but he could also play outside in base packages and, as I mentioned earlier, he’s an option to play safety if they need him to. Graham comes over from Baltimore on a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal. He’s developed into a pretty solid cornerback over the past 2 seasons, grading out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, on 588 snaps and 703 snaps respectively. He did this despite playing a combined 321 snaps from 2009-2011. The slot specialist is a 2007 5^th round pick out of New Hampshire.

Part of the rationale behind moving Graham to safety is that the Bills had a perfectly good slot cornerback last season, Nickell Robey, who now doesn’t really have a role. The 2013 undrafted free agent had a fantastic rookie season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28^th ranked cornerback. He allowed 32 completions on 61 attempts (52.5%) for 339 yards (5.56 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties. He ranked 6^th in yards allowed per slot coverage snap and 5^th in receptions allowed per slot coverage snap.

There’s no guarantee he’d be as good in 2014. After all, he was undrafted and he still remains a one year wonder. However, he was undrafted primarily because of his size at 5-8 165 and he seemed to have carved out a niche on the slot last season, though he did lose his defensive coordinator. It’ll be a shame if he can’t get playing time this season, but he’s a hell of a player to have as your 4^th cornerback and primary depth cornerback. There’s definitely still talent in the Bills’ secondary, but they’ll miss Byrd.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bills were a little bit better than their record suggested last season. They probably won’t be as good defensively this season with Mike Pettine and Jairus Byrd gone, but Jim Schwartz is still a solid defensive mind and they have a lot of defensive talent still, with guys like Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Kiko Alonso, Brandon Spikes, and Jerry Hughes. They’ll still have a strong defense and their offense should be better.

I don’t have huge expectations for EJ Manuel, but he should be, by default, healthier and better this season. Their receiving corps will be better simply because they won’t have a rookie Robert Woods and a terrible TJ Graham leading them in snaps played at wide receiver. The additions of Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams should help. They also could finally get that feature back breakout year from CJ Spiller at running back. There’s a good amount of talent here. They have about 6 guys that should be in my top-200 list, coming up in August (those 5 defensive players, plus Cordy Glenn). If they can get decent quarterback play, they’ll be in the playoff mix, but, again, I have my doubts about that. I’ll have an official wins prediction for all teams at the end of all my previews.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in AFC East

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Seattle Seahawks sign DT Kevin Williams

June 12, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

I mentioned that Kevin Williams and the Seahawks could be a match in my post last month, “Remaining NFL Free Agents Who Could Have An Impact.” Williams came in 2^nd on that list. Believe it or not, the Seahawks still needed depth on their defensive line, after losing Clinton McDonald to the Buccaneers this off-season. Before signing Williams, they would have been counting on Jordan Hill, a 2013 3^rd round pick who played 65 snaps as a rookie last season, to play a significant role on what was arguably the best defensive line in football last season.

The Seahawks are a young team that is going to get expensive fast over the next few off-seasons, but they’re also built to win now and signing a veteran like Williams cheap (about 2 million dollars) on a short-term deal was a good move for them. Likewise, Williams getting significant money at this point in the off-season and landing with a contender was a good move on his part. He showed decline last season and now is going into his age 34 season, but part of the reason he showed decline was he was so good to begin with. The future Hall-of-Famer was a top-3 defensive tackle in 2008-2010 and didn’t finish below 9th until last year. Even last year, he was 27th. He presumably still has another year or two left in the tank and can be valuable in a 500-600 snap role. This was a good move.

Grade: A

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New England Patriots 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Patriots, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Tom Brady arguably had the worst statistical season of his career last season, completing 60.5% of his passes (lowest since 2003), for an average of 6.92 YPA (lowest since 2003), 25 touchdowns (lowest in a full season since 2006), and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 87.3. That QB rating was the 4^th worst of his career and the lowest since 2003, when the NFL’s rules didn’t favor the quarterback nearly as much as they do now. Those numbers were all significant declines from 2010-2012, when he completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 109 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, a QB rating of 104.6.

Part of the issue was Brady’s lack of supporting cast offensively. Rob Gronkowski played just 7 games and 390 snaps because of injury. Aaron Hernandez obviously is gone. Wes Welker is in Denver and free agent replacement Danny Amendola struggled through injuries, leaving Julian Edelman to step up as Brady’s primary option in his absence. Only Matt Stafford had more passes dropped than Brady (53), and those 53 passes were for 487 yards in the air, also 2^nd to Matt Stafford.

The Patriots also had issues upfront on the offensive line as Brady was pressured on 32.1% of his drop backs, the highest percentage of drop backs he’s been pressured on since at least before 2007. That still ranked in the bottom half of NFL quarterbacks, but that was more of a testament to Brady’s quick release than anything (2.39 seconds from snap to throw on average last season, 5th fastest in the NFL). Brady’s one weakness has always been pressure. Over the past 5 seasons, he only has completed 471 of 980 passes (48.1%) for 6281 yards (6.41 YPA), 43 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions under pressure, as opposed to 2050 for 2930 (70.0%) for 23969 yards (8.18 YPA), 187 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions while not under pressure.

However, part of the issue was also Brady himself. Brady was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked quarterback, which is very good, but he was 3^rd in both 2011 and 2012. He’s also seen his QB rating drop from 111.0 to 105.6 to 98.7 to 87.3 over the past 4 seasons from 2010-2013. The decline he’s showing is a concern considering as he’s heading into his age 37 season. He’s getting to the point in his career where he could hit a wall in terms of his abilities at any time. He’s still a top level quarterback (for example, his actual passing grade was 5^th among quarterbacks last season on Pro Football Focus), but I’d still rank Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and maybe Philip Rivers ahead of him. He could prove me wrong and have a vintage year this year, but that’s where I’d put him right now.

A lot of people like to mention the Patriots winning 12 games and going to the AFC Championship despite a weakened supporting cast as a reason why Brady is a top, top level quarterback and maybe even was the true MVP last season (he did get one MVP vote). I think that’s an overly simplistic view. The Patriots weren’t as good as their record suggested last season.

They had about 10.5 Pythagorean wins, 8^th in the NFL, despite an unsustainable 62.50% fumble recovery rate. They finished 7-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including 6-1 in games decided by a field goal or less. They finished 8^th in rate of moving the chains differential. If they had played last season the same way 100 times, they probably would have finished about 10-6 on average. They did win a playoff game, but that was on the back of an insane performance from LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns on 24 carries. Brady was only 13 of 25 for 198 yards in that game. That’s especially concerning when coupled with Tom Brady’s age.

The good news is the Patriots’ supporting cast around Brady should be significantly improved compared to last season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they should have fewer injuries last season, when they had the 4^th most adjusted games lost, including serious injuries to Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, Sebastian Vollmer, Vince Wilfork, and Jerod Mayo. They also added more talent this off-season, specifically upgrading the injury prone Aqib Talib with dominant man cornerback Darrelle Revis.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Patriots signed Danny Amendola to a 5-year, 28.5 million dollar deal last off-season to replace Wes Welker. Their logic was that Amendola was 4 years younger and had shown the potential to be for the next 5 years what Welker was for the last 5 years at a reasonable rate. That didn’t work out, at least in the first year of Amendola’s deal, so Julian Edelman had to step up as the Patriots’ #1 receiver. It took him a little bit, but he was very good in the 2^nd half of the season.

In the first 8 games of the season, Edelman caught 48 passes for 462 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is good, but he was better in the second half of the season, catching 57 passes for 592 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also caught a higher percentage of his targets in the second half of the season, catching 57 of 78 (73.1%), as opposed to 48 catches on 68 targets in the first half of the season (70.6%) He also had two games in which he graded out well above average on Pro Football Focus in the first half of the season and two games in which he graded out well below average, while in the second half of the season he had four games in which he graded out well above average and none in which he graded out well below average. On top of that, had two more games in the post-season in which he graded out well above average, catching 16 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown on 22 targets in two post-season games.

Perhaps not coincidentally, Tom Brady played much better in the 2^nd half of the season, once he started to have the same kind of familiarity with Edelman that he once had with Wes Welker. Over his first 8 games, Brady completed 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.94 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. In the other 8 regular season games, he completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.85 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Brady graded out well above average in 2 of his first 8 games and well below average in 3 of his first 8 games. In the other 8 games, he graded out well above average in 5 games and well below average in 1 game. The Patriots averaged 33.1 points per game over their final 8 games, as opposed to 22.4 points per game over their first 8 games. The issue was their defense went from allowing 18.0 points per game to 24.3 points per game as injuries struck.

Overall, Edelman had a very strong season. Even excluding his strong post-season, he finished the regular season with 105 catches for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns. He averaged 1.76 yards per route run. For comparison’s sake, Wes Welker averaged 1.64 yards per route run in 2013. Edelman did get more targets as he was a bigger part of New England’s offense, but he also caught a significantly higher percentage of his targets (71.9% to 67.0%) even though he commanded more of the defense’s attention.

As a result, Edelman was Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked wide receiver in pass catching grade, while Welker came in at 37th. The Patriots offense wasn’t as good last season without Welker, but that was largely a result of the absence of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. They probably shouldn’t have paid Danny Amendola all that money, but they made the right decision letting Welker go. Welker is a declining player going into his age 33 season who missed 3 games with injury last season. Amendola deal aside, the Patriots are getting a better deal long-term with Edelman than Welker (who will make 6 million in a contract year in 2014). The Patriots gave Edelman a deserved 4-year, 17 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent, as he goes into his age 28 season.

Still, the Patriots do need to become less reliant on Edelman and have other receivers step up for Brady to throw to. Edelman is still a former undrafted one-year wonder who had 69 catches in the previous 4 seasons, while missing a combined 16 games over those 4 seasons. Rob Gronkowski would be the best candidate to step up, considering how good he is when he’s healthy. Gronkowski has been a top-3 tight end in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, including last year when he graded out 2^nd despite playing just 390 snaps in 7 games.

Gronkowski has caught 184 passes for 2709 yards and 32 touchdowns over his last 34 games, which is 87 catches for 1275 yards and 15 touchdowns over 16 games. He’s averaged 2.38 yards per route run over his career, including 2.47 yards per route run over the past 3 seasons and 2.75 yards per route run last season. That’s insane for a tight end. For comparison, Jimmy Graham has averaged 2.19 yards per route run over the past 3 seasons and he’s widely considered the best receiving tight end in the NFL. Gronkowski, when healthy, is a better pass catcher and he’s also easily a better run blocker. He struggled a little bit as a run blocker last season, after coming back from a broken arm, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked tight end in 2010 in run blocking grade, 1^st ranked in 2011, and 4^th ranked in 2012. When healthy, he’s easily the best, most complete tight end in the NFL.

Over the past 3 seasons, Tom Brady completes 65.3% of his passes for an average of 8.07 YPA, 81 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions when Gronkowski plays (36 games, including playoffs) and the Patriots score 32.8 points per game. When Gronkowski isn’t on the field, Brady completes 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.88 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions and the Patriots score 28.0 points per game (19 games, including playoffs). Gronkowski played 6 of the Patriots’ final 8 games last season, which is a big part of the reason why Brady and the Patriots’ offense played so much better in the 2^nd half of the season. He didn’t play in the post-season, when their passing game fell short.

The issue with Gronkowski is obviously injuries. He’s missed 14 games of the past 2 seasons combined and has missed the Patriots’ last 4 playoff games, not playing in a playoff game since the 2011 Super Bowl. He had back problems in college. He struggled in the Super Bowl through an ankle problem. He broke his arm in 2012 and re-broke it in the playoffs. He had 5 surgeries on that arm, including 3 surgeries to treat an infection. He also had another back procedure. And then last December, he tore his ACL.

He’s currently more likely than not to be back for week 1, about 9 months removed from his torn ACL, although who knows with the Patriots and how tight-lipped they are with injuries. The good news is he did seem to have put all of his past injuries behind him last season, when he was dominant in 7 games. This is his first major leg injury and he’s only going into his age 25 season. The bad news is that ACL injuries usually take a while to return to full strength from and he could be less than 100% all season even once he returns. Leg injuries also can lead to other leg injuries. He also doesn’t inspire confidence that he won’t suffer another injury. His durability is a serious problem. All that being said, it’s likely that the Patriots will have him for more games, more snaps, and more production this season than last year and possibly even than 2012 (55 catches for 790 yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games on 743 snaps). More importantly, they’ll probably have him for the playoffs.

Another guy who should have better health this season is Danny Amendola. Amendola caught just 54 passes for 633 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, which obviously was a disappointment for the Patriots. He only missed 4 games, but he was limited all season with a groin injury. When healthy, he can be a great wide receiver. He averaged 2.04 yards per route run with the Rams in 2012 despite having Sam Bradford at quarterback. The issue is he’s never been able to stay healthy. He’s missed a combined 24 games over the past 3 seasons, not excluding the other games he’s been limited with injury. However, if I had to bet on it, I’d bet on him being more productive this season than last. He’s once again having a strong off-season (like he did last off-season) and he seems to be over that groin issue.

Aaron Dobson is another guy who should be more productive this season than last season. The 2013 2nd round pick caught 37 passes for 519 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The average first round pick rookie wide receiver averages 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Dobson was able to post comparable numbers despite missing 4 games and despite being a 2nd round pick. It’s a testament to Dobson’s athleticism and upside and Tom Brady’s ability to get the most out of his receivers. He averaged 1.65 yards per route run. He had a serious issue with drops, dropping 9 passes to those 37 catches and only caught 37 of 71 targets (52.1%), but he definitely flashed. He should be better in his 2^nd year in the league and could be a lot better.

Dobson was only one of three rookie wide receivers the Patriots had last season. Josh Boyce caught 9 passes for 121 yards as a 4^th round rookie and now is on the roster bubble. Kenbrell Thompkins played a bigger role as rookie, catching 32 passes for 466 yards and 4 touchdowns on 355 routes run, but that’s just an average of 1.31 yards per route run and he only caught 32 of 69 targets (46.4%). The 2013 undrafted rookie is also on the roster bubble. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and free agent acquisition Brandon LaFell are locked into roster spots.

LaFell and Dobson will compete to be the #3 wide receiver. LaFell, a 2010 3^rd round pick, comes over from Carolina. He caught 167 passes for 2385 yards and 13 touchdowns in 4 seasons, proving to be a marginal receiver at best, averaging 1.36 yards per route run, including just 1.18 yards per route run last season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 94^th ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible in pass catching grade in 2013. He’s a solid blocker and a big body at 6-2 211, but he lacks explosiveness. There’s some talk they could line him up at tight end kind of, the way they did with Aaron Hernandez, but there’s no evidence that they will.

The reason people are wondering whether or not they’ll do that is because they really lack a #2 tight end. DJ Williams is currently their “move” tight end in the old Aaron Hernandez role, but the 2011 5^th round pick has 9 career catches and isn’t much of a blocker. Michael Hoomanawanui is a decent blocker, but offers nothing as a pass catcher with 37 catches in 4 seasons since being drafted in the 5^th round in 2010. The 6-4 260 pounder can’t really play that “move” tight end role. This is a bigger issue if Gronkowski misses time, but not having a good #2 tight end will still hurt them either way. The Patriots will run a lot of 3 and 4 wide receiver sets this season.

The Patriots were planning on having running back Shane Vereen replace a lot of Aaron Hernandez’s production last season in a Darren Sproles type role, lining up all over the formation in passing situations. That didn’t work out because Vereen too was bitten by the injury bug, missing 8 games with a broken wrist. He’s someone else who should be more productive this year than last year as that injury is now long behind him. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked running back in terms of pass catching grade last season, despite only running 200 routes. He caught 47 passes for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets on 200 routes run, an average of 2.14 yards per route run that was 2^nd only to Darren Sproles among running backs. He did that all in 8 games and could have a big season this year. Overall, barring major injuries and young players not developing, the Patriots’ receiving corps should be better than it was last season.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Patriots also have a key contributor coming back from injury on the offensive line and it should make them a better unit as a result. That player is right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who only played 516 snaps in 8 games before breaking his leg last season. He was dominant before the injury, on his way to probably the best season of his career in his 5^th year in the league. He still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked offensive tackle despite the limited playing time. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps than him and graded out higher.

Vollmer has been a very solid player since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2009. He’s been a top-23 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 5 seasons, doing so in 2011 and 2013 despite playing 6 and 8 games respectively. The issue is he’s never played a full 16 game season and he’s missed 25 games in 5 seasons. Having him back healthy will be a boost to this offensive line as Marcus Cannon, a 2011 5^th round pick better off as a 6^th offensive lineman, struggled a little bit last season when forced into the starting lineup.

Nate Solder will continue to start at left tackle. The 2011 1^st round was Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked offensive tackle in his first year as a starter in 2012 and then took it to the next level in 2013, grading out 9^th. He was abused by Von Miller, but there’s no shame in that and he was very good the rest of the season. The Patriots have already picked up his option for 2015 and he’s one of the best young blindside protectors in the game.

Logan Mankins will continue to man the left guard position, as he’s been doing since the Patriots drafted him in the first round in 2005. Mankins is already going into his age 32 season, which is a concern, especially since he hasn’t been as good over the past few seasons, struggling through various injuries and starting to show his age. A top-10 guard in every season from 2007-2010, including #1 in 2008, Mankins has graded out 27^th, 18^th, and 19^th in the last 3 seasons respectively. Last year he run blocked well, but actually graded out significantly below average as a pass protector, allowing 9 sacks. He should have another solid season left in him at the very least, but he’s not the same player anymore.

The bigger issues are at center and right guard. Ryan Wendell, a 2008 undrafted free agent, broke out in his first year as a starter in 2012, after flashing as a reserve earlier in his career, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked center. He really struggled in pass protection, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked center in pass protection that season, which is an offensive linemen’s most important job, but he was #1 by far as a run blocker, so he made up for it.

However, in 2013, he still struggled in pass protection and wasn’t nearly as good as a run blocker. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked center overall. Instead of replacing him, the Patriots gave him a 2-year, 3.25 million dollar contract this off-season, though they did draft Bryan Stork in the 4^th round. Stork could push him at some point as a rookie if he continues to struggle. Another option is playing Marcus Cannon at right guard and moving Dan Connolly to center. Either way, they’re unlikely to get good play from the center position.

Connolly is currently at right guard. Like Mankins, he too is going into his age 32 season. Unlike Mankins, he’s never been that good. A marginal starter for a few seasons, last year was probably the worst year of his career, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. His days as a starting caliber player are probably over. Marcus Cannon could push him for the starting job. It’s a solid offensive line, a better offensive line than last year, but there are more issues than you’d like for a team with a quarterback whose play declines as much under pressure as Brady does.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Stevan Ridley had a breakout year in 2012 as the 2011 3^rd round pick rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries (4.36 YPC). He was off to an equally good start in the 2013 season, rushing for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns on 131 carries (4.29 YPC) through 9 games. However, he lost a fumble in 3 straight weeks (4 total on the season) and got benched against Denver. The rest of the way, he had just 66 carries for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns (4.24 YPC) in 7 games, including playoffs.

LeGarrette Blount took over as the primary back and combined to rush for 944 yards on 182 carries in the regular and post-season, an average of 5.19 yards per carry. He also rushed for 11 touchdowns. He’s gone, signing in Pittsburgh, so it looks like the Patriots will trust Ridley as their feature back again. Aside from his fumbling issues (9 fumbles in 3 years on 574 touches), Ridley’s biggest issue is that he’s not a receiving threat, with 19 catches in 3 years. He had just 17 in his collegiate career as well. Shane Vereen makes up for that as a receiver out of the backfield in passing situations.

If Ridley’s fumbling problems come back, the Patriots options to replace him as the lead back aren’t great. They could give Vereen more of a role as a runner, even though the small 5-10 205 pounder has just 121 carries in 3 seasons since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011 (4.26 YPA). Brandon Bolden is their 2^nd best big back. He’s flashed, rushing for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns on 111 carries (4.91 YPA) in his career as a 2012 undrafted free agent, but he’s had problems with injuries, which was a big issue for him in college as well. That’s a big part of the reason why he wasn’t drafted. James White is another option. They drafted him in the 4^th round in this past draft.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

Vince Wilfork is the big re-addition on the defensive line as he returns from a torn Achilles suffered in week 4 of last season. His absence was evident last season as their run defense up the middle was, at times, pathetic. Some of that had to do with Wilfork’s dominance against the run. Some of that had to do with how poor their replacements were. With Wilfork and fellow veteran Tommy Kelly out for the season, the Patriots had to turn to a pair of rookies, Chris Jones, a 6^th round pick cut by the Texans in final cuts, and Joe Vellano, an undrafted free agent rookie. They played 792 snaps and 672 snaps respectively, which was a big issue.

Jones was the biggest issue. People can point to his 7 sacks as a reason why he had a good season, but that’s the opposite of reality. Those sacks were coupled with just 1 quarterback hit and 13 hurries on 440 pass rush snaps, a 4.8% pass rush rate. He probably won’t have close to 7 sacks on his next 440 pass rush snaps if he doesn’t improve his pass rush abilities. Rushing the passer wasn’t even his biggest issue as he got destroyed against the run, being pushed off the line with ease.

He ranked as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle against the run by far and their worst ranked defensive tackle overall. Vellano was better and actually pretty impressive for an undrafted rookie, but he still ranked 56^th out of 69 eligible defensive tackles. Sealver Siliga got playing time down the stretch and impressed, but there’s no guarantee he could have continued that into 2014. The good news is that none of Jones, Vellano, and Siliga will start the season higher than 4^th on the depth chart at defensive tackle.

Wilfork’s return will obviously help things. He was Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked defensive tackle in 2012, 23^rd ranked defensive tackle in 2011, and would have been their composite 16^th ranked defensive tackle in 2010 had he not played a fair amount of 3-4 defensive end that season. However, I’m skeptical that he’ll be the same Vince Wilfork, going into his age 33 season, coming off of a torn Achilles.

Tommy Kelly, meanwhile, is coming off of a torn ACL going into his age 34 season. He played alright on 223 snaps last season before going down, but he was awful in 2012, grading out 74^th among 85 eligible defensive tackle. I’m very skeptical he can continue to be a starting caliber player at his age, coming off that injury. He’ll be pushed for the starting job in training camp by 1^st round rookie Dominique Easley. Easley is coming off of his own injury, tearing his ACL in his final season at Florida, after tearing the other one back in 2011. He’s a serious injury concern already at such a young age and was a surprise pick 29^th overall, but he has top-10/top-15 talent when healthy.

At defensive end, Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will remain the starters. A lot of teams believe in rotating their defensive ends. The Patriots apparently don’t as Jones and Ninkovich were 1 and 2 in the NFL in terms of snaps played among defensive linemen as they played 1142 and 1114 snaps respectively. They only missed 24 and 52 snaps respectively all season and played 71.4 and 69.6 snaps per game respectively. It’s very impressive, but they definitely had a good amount of bad snaps as a result of overuse.

Rob Ninkovich is the more impressive of the two, grading out Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive end, including #1 against the run, while Jones graded out 23rd. He had a good amount of pass rush production, but much of that was just because he played so many pass rush snaps. He had 9 sacks, 14 hits, and 46 hurries on 552 pass rush snaps, a 12.5% pass rush rate that is solid, but unspectacular. He also graded out below average as a pass rusher on Pro Football Focus. Jones also played much better against the run than as a pass rusher. He graded out 13^th as a run stopper, but 12^th worst as a pass rusher, with 13 sacks, 14 hits, and 39 hurries on 637 pass rush snaps, a rate of 10.4%.

Both of them could be better this season if they played fewer snaps and got more breathers, which would be good as the Patriots ranked 2^nd worst as a team in terms of team pass rush grade on Pro Football Focus last season. This is especially true of Chandler Jones, an incredibly athletic 2012 1^st round pick going into his 3^rd year in the league. I don’t know if Ninkovich can improve on the best season of his career as he goes into his age 30 season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 15^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, and 16^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2010. The versatile front 7 defender has found a home for himself in New England, after being drafted in the 5^th round in 2006 and bouncing around from the Saints to the Dolphins back to the Saints from 2006-2008.

The issue is the Patriots don’t have very much depth at the position. Michael Buchanan struggled mightily on 122 snaps as a 7^th round rookie last season. Jake Bequette was a 3^rd round pick in 2012, but he’s played just 43 snaps uninspiring snaps in 2 seasons. Zach Moore was a 6^th round pick in this past draft. Will Smith was a free agent acquisition, but he’s going into his age 33 season after missing all of the 2013 season with injury and grading out 2^nd worst among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012. He might not even make the roster. Their best option might be to have linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower rush the passer some in sub packages.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Collins and Hightower are two young linebackers who could break out in new roles. Brandon Spikes is gone, which hurts because he was a very solid player, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked middle linebacker in 2013, 9^th in 2012, 18^th in 2011, and 9^th in 2010. However, he’s only a two-down player who has played 694 snaps, 742 snaps, 364 snaps, and 356 snaps in those 4 seasons respectively, while grading out 1^st, 1^st, 19^th, and 4^th in run grade respectively, in those 4 seasons since the Patriots drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2010.

With him gone, their linebackers fit together better and might even be a better unit. Dont’a Hightower will move into his collegiate position of middle linebacker and have to play less often in coverage, which is good for him. That could allow him to rush the passer in sub packages more often, something he did in college and something he’s had moderate success doing in 147 career pass rush snaps. At the very least, the move will put him in a more natural spot and keep him out of coverage less. He’s been Pro Football Focus’ 12^th and 3^rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in run grade over the past 2 seasons respectively and he played fantastic football down the stretch last season. He could be ready to break out.

Jamie Collins, meanwhile, could be ready to break out as well as he moves full-time into a starting role. The 2013 2^nd round pick is a converted collegiate defensive lineman who flashed on 302 regular season snaps last season and then was dominant in the playoff win over Indianapolis, playing every snap, recording a sack, 2 hits, and a hurry on 9 pass rush snaps, recording 4 stops (tackling within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down), allowing 2 catches for 12 yards on 5 targets and recording an interception. He was also solid in the playoff loss to Denver. He could play some defensive end in sub packages, but if he continues to show himself as an all-around player, they might just make him a true three-down outside linebacker.

Another positive is that the Patriots get Jerod Mayo back from injury. Mayo missed 10 games with a torn pectoral last season. The concern for his health going into 2014 should be limited as the 2008 1^st round pick had missed 5 games in 5 seasons prior to this injury. It was also an upper body injury instead of a lower body injury and he’s already a full participant at OTAs. When healthy, Mayo is one of the better 4-3 outside linebackers in the game. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2012 and 7^th ranked in 2011, after converting from being a 3-4 middle linebacker, where he wasn’t quite as good.

The one interesting and underrated free agent acquisition the Patriots made this off-season was the addition of linebacker James Anderson on a veteran’s minimum contract late in the off-season. Anderson isn’t a very good linebacker and he’s going into his age 31 season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker last season and worst ranked against the run.

However, he was 6^th at his position in coverage grade and could be an asset for the Patriots in sub packages if they decide they don’t want either of Collins or Hightower to be the primary 2^nd linebacker in sub packages. That could happen because coverage isn’t the primary strength of either of them and both can rush the passer. Anderson could be a valuable, sub package coverage specialist in a limited role (200-300 snaps would be my guess). Despite losing Spikes, it’s a talented linebacking corps that fits together very nicely.

Grade: A-

Secondary

Easily the biggest acquisition of the off-season for the Patriots was Darrelle Revis. It’s a popular narrative that Revis Island is “done” after Revis tore his ACL in 2012 and then got cut by the Buccaneers after 1 year with the team. However, he was cut because he wasn’t worth his 16 million dollar salary to a Tampa Bay team that is transitioning to more zone coverage, not because he played poorly. He’s well worth the 12 million the Patriots are paying him this season to play in their man coverage based coverage scheme.

After the Patriots signed Darrelle Revis, I tweeted that the NFL’s top cornerbacks were #1 Richard Sherman, #2 Darrelle Revis, and #10 everyone else. There’s a huge gap between the top-2 cornerbacks in the NFL and the rest of the NFL’s cornerbacks. All of the top cornerbacks on the market this off-season had warts, even if it was a very strong cornerback market.

Brent Grimes was going into his age 31 season with an injury history. Vontae Davis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Sam Shields and Aqib Talib all had inconsistent histories. Alterraun Verner was the most consistent of the available free agent cornerbacks, making 64 starts in 4 years and grading out in the top-24 on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, but he’s never finished in the top-10. All those guys are in the “#10 everyone else” range. Once Darrelle Revis hit the open market, he was miles better than everyone else who was available this off-season.

Showing the volatility of the cornerback position, just two cornerbacks finished in the top-15 on Pro Football Focus in both 2012 and 2013. One was Richard Sherman (#2 and #6) and the other was Jason McCourty (#6 and #10). Darrelle Revis probably would have been the other one if he hadn’t torn his ACL in 2012, which looks like a fluke injury when you look at the rest of his history, as he’s missed just 3 games in his other 6 seasons combined.

In 4 of his last 5 healthy seasons, he’s graded out in the top-3 on Pro Football Focus among cornerbacks (he was #8 in the other season), incredible considering the volatility of the position and how difficult it’s become to be a dominant man coverage cornerback in today’s NFL. That includes a 2013 season in which he graded out #1 among cornerbacks, fueled by a first place finish in yards allowed per coverage snap, despite a poor pass rush in front of him. People still don’t throw on Revis. Another year removed from his injury, Revis should only be better in 2014. Since 2008, Revis has allowed 43.1% completion, 5.41 YPA, and 12 touchdowns, while picking off 20 passes, a QB rating allowed of 50.5. He essentially turns every quarterback who dares to throw on him into a drunken Mark Sanchez. You can’t say that about anyone else.

Richard Sherman is probably a better cornerback because of his superior ball hawking abilities. He also doesn’t have a torn ACL on his record and he’s three years younger, with Sherman going into his age 26 season and Revis going into his age 29 season. However, Revis is right there as the #2 cornerback and miles ahead of everyone else. Short of acquiring Richard Sherman (which would obviously not have been possible), there’s nothing more than that the Patriots could have done this off-season to upgrade the cornerback position and replace Aqib Talib than signing Revis. The Patriots now have the legitimate ability to take away one side of the field on defense, something they haven’t been able to do since Ty Law. He’ll also help the pass rush get a few more coverage sacks.

Talib, by the way, has never graded out higher than 16^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, nor he has ever played all 16 games in a season. Talib was 58^th among cornerbacks in 2013 and 69^th in composite grade among cornerbacks (between Tampa Bay and New England) in 2012. He was dominant for the first 6 games of the 2013 season, before suffering an injury, allowing 13 of 33 completion and picking off 4 passes in the process, but he’s never been able to sustain that. Revis can sustain high level play and give them the shutdown cornerback Talib was for those 6 games, when the Patriots allowed 16.2 points per game (back when Wilfork and Mayo were healthy as well).

Brandon Browner was the Patriots’ other free agent addition at cornerback. Browner will be suspended for the first 4 games of the season for performance enhancing drugs, but he should help them upon his return. Browner had graded out above average in all 3 seasons as a starter since coming over from Canada before the 2011 season. He’s graded out 37^th, 22^nd, and 42^nd in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. The concern is he’s missed 12 games over the past 2 seasons with a combination of injury and suspension and now he’s facing another 4 game suspension.

The good news is the Patriots have an absurd amount of depth at the cornerback position as a result of the Revis and Browner acquisitions. Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan will compete to start opposite Revis in Browner’s absence, with Dennard being the early favorite. Dennard fell to the 7^th round of the 2012 draft because of off-the-field problems and has had issues in the past 2 seasons as well, including spending time in jail. He had 2^nd round talent though and was solid as a rookie, grading 30^th among cornerbacks in 10 games. Last season, fell to 70^th in 2013 in 13 games, which is a big part of the reason why the brought Browner in. Still, Dennard is an adequate short-term fill-in for Browner.

Logan Ryan, meanwhile, was a 3^rd round pick in 2013 and impressed in limited action as a rookie, grading out 30^th at his position despite playing just 608 snaps. The Browner acquisition will also allow Kyle Arrington to focus on the slot, which is the 5-10 196 pounder’s specialty. He’s been Pro Football Focus’ 30^th, 44^th, and 19^th ranked cornerback in the last 3 seasons respectively.

The fact that either Ryan or Dennard could be their 5^th cornerback when Browner is back shows how much depth they have at the position. There’s been some talk that they could move Ryan to safety as a result of that. It’s unclear how the 5-11 191 pounder would fit at the position, but getting him more opportunities to be on the field is a worthwhile endeavor. Ryan would compete with another 2013 3^rd round pick out of Rutgers, a natural safety Duron Harmon.

Unlike Ryan, Harmon wasn’t supposed to be a 3^rd round pick. In fact, he probably wasn’t supposed to be drafted. The Patriots’ scouts told Belichick not to take him that early and that they could get him later and no major draft outlets were spending much time on him, certainly not as a day 2 pick, but the Patriots took him anyway. He impressed as a rookie on 431 snaps and is the front runner for a starting job now that Steve Gregory is gone. Tavon Wilson is also in the mix at safety. He was impressive on 476 snaps as a 2^nd round rookie in 2012, but only played 17 snaps last season, despite all the injuries the Patriots had in the secondary and Wilson’s ability to play both cornerback and safety. It seems like Wilson, another player drafted earlier than everyone expected, was a mistake of a draft pick, at least at this point.

Whoever starts there will start opposite Devin McCourty. Revis isn’t the only top level defensive back the Patriots have on the roster as McCourty has quietly developed into one of the best safeties in the game over the past 2 seasons. McCourty was a rookie All-Pro in 2010 and a deserving one, as the 1^st round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked cornerback that season. McCourty struggled in 2011, grading out below average, and then was moved to safety about halfway through the 2012 season.

In 2012, he was as good as he was in 2010, if not better, grading out 8^th among cornerbacks on 534 snaps (no cornerback played fewer snaps and graded out higher) and 14^th among safeties on 564 snaps (only Troy Polamalu played fewer snaps and graded out higher). His composite grade would have been 5^th among cornerbacks and 4^th among safeties. 2013 was his best season yet as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked safety. Primarily a deep safety (9.1% of snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, fewest in the NFL last season among safeties), he’s New England’s version of Earl Thomas or Jairus Byrd. The Patriots don’t have a perfect secondary, but they have two big-time impact players and a lot of depth. It’s one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Patriots were lucky and unlucky in different ways last season. They had an unsustainably high fumble recovery rate (62.50%) and went an absurd 6-1 in games decided by 3 points or fewer. However, they also had the 4^th most adjusted games lost in the league and had significant players miss time and/or be limited with injuries (Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, Sebastian Vollmer, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo).

They’ve done a good job adding talent this off-season and are a significantly better team than they were for most of last season. They weren’t as good as their 12-4 record suggested they were last season, but now they probably are. I’ll do official record predictions at the end of all my previews, but the Patriots have a very good chance at another high win total as they are one of the most talented teams in the NFL and coached by arguably the best head coach in the NFL. In the last 13 seasons, the Patriots have had 12 seasons of 10+ wins, 11 division titles, 10 seasons of 11+ wins, 8 seasons of 12+ wins, 8 AFC Championships appearance, 5 Super Bowl appearances, and 3 Super Bowl victories. They should be right in that range once again, barring Tom Brady hitting the wall in terms of his abilities.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in AFC East

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Pittsburgh Steelers re-sign C Maurkice Pouncey

June 12, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Steelers, Uncategorized

I really don’t get this move. When the Browns gave Alex Mack 5 years, 43 million earlier this off-season, I didn’t love it because it’s a lot of money for a center, but I understood it because Mack is probably the best center in the NFL. Giving Maurkice Pouncey 44 million over 5 years (with a 13 million dollar signing bonus), however, doesn’t make any sense. Pouncey is perennially overrated because of the public’s inability to evaluate a center (you can’t exactly blame them).

Pro Football Focus can evaluate a center as they evaluate players on a snap by snap basis, for every snap of a season. They’ve had Pouncey ranked 21^st, 19^th, and 12^th from 2010-2012 respectively, including below average in 2010 and 2011. Meanwhile, Alex Mack has been in the top-10 in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league and John Sullivan of the Vikings has been top-3 in each of the last 3 seasons.

Not only that, but Pouncey missed essentially all of last season with injury, going down with a torn ACL week 1. I don’t understand the rush to give him this record deal right now. Let him come back for a season and prove the dominance he’s never shown before paying him this. I can’t imagine the Steelers would have had to pay him more than this as a free agent next off-season and if they would have had to, at that point it’s better to let him leave. This is a serious overpayment for a team with serious cap problems.

Grade: D

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Oakland Raiders 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 9, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Raiders went 4-12 last season and even that might have been overachieving, given how poorly managed this franchise had been for years. The Raiders had over 56 million in dead money on their 2013 cap, which left them severely handicapped in free agency. They had a total of one first round pick on their roster from their 2001-2012 drafts, Darren McFadden. Of their top-10 cap numbers last season, 6 were dead money guys, 1 was a kicker, and 1 was a backup quarterback who was cut mid-season. They also were without top offensive player Jared Veldheer for most of the season with injury.

There was a light at the end of the tunnel for the Raiders though. They entered this off-season with the most cap room in the NFL, as a result of all that dead money coming off the cap. They also had yet another top-5 pick. What the Raiders did with that cap space was weird though. Instead of re-signing young building blocks like LaMarr Houston, Vance Walker, and Jared Veldheer, the Raiders went after 30+ year old veterans like Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Donald Penn, Matt Schaub, James Jones, Carlos Rogers, and Antonio Smith.

They did sign Tarell Brown and re-sign Pat Sims, two talented under 30 players, but they’re only signed to one-year deals. Austin Howard is another talented under 30 player, but he’ll probably be playing right guard for some reason, for the first time in his career. They also have failed to extend center Stefen Wisniewski, a talented 2011 2^nd round pick, who is in the final year of his contract year.

Outside of Howard, their under 30 talent signed for 2015 and beyond includes #5 overall pick Khalil Mack (who was a very solid pick), 2^nd year linebacker Sio Moore, and maybe DJ Hayden, Tyvon Branch, and Derek Carr. Hayden struggled as a first round rookie in 2013. Tyvon Branch is a solid safety when healthy, but he’s coming off of a serious injury. Carr was their 2^nd round pick this year. The Raiders might be an improved team this season, but it came at the expense of their long-term success. Their whole off-season just seemed like selling out their future to go 6-10 this season. It’s the kind of philosophy that got this team in this mess, with short sighted trades for Carson Palmer and Richard Seymour made by previous regimes.

Quarterback Matt Schaub, as I mentioned, was one of these over 30 veterans. Schaub was acquired from the Texans for a 6^th round pick even though they were just going to release him anyway. The Raiders guaranteed him 8 million dollars for his first year’s salary in his restructured deal, which is almost definitely more than anyone would have guaranteed him on the open market. They’ve been talking him up publicly as a bounce back candidate this off-season, but I’m skeptical.

Schaub had a QB rating in the 90s in every season from 2008-2012, but struggled mightily in 2013, completing 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 10 games, a QB rating of 73.0. He was Pro Football Focus’ 38^th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible. I am hesitant to just assume that a bad 10-game stretch erases his strong play from the previous 69-game stretch.

For example, he had an interception rate of 3.9% last season after a 2.5% interception rate in the rest of his career leading up to last season. It’s hard to judge anyone purely on their interception totals because it’s such a small percentage of their snaps, so it’s can be pretty inconsistent. However, his 6.45 YPA shows a significant loss in arm strength compared to his 7.63 YPA career average. He’s also going into his age 33 season so, while he could bounce back a little bit, his best days are probably behind him. A revival like Philip Rivers had last season is possible, with a change of scenery and coaching staff, but it’s a remote possibility.

The Raiders clearly don’t view Schaub as a long-term solution, and rightfully so, as they drafted Derek Carr in the 2^nd round. Carr is unlikely to develop into a starter in the NFL though. Recent successes of Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson as quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round are the exception to the rule. Of the 26 quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd-3^rd round from 2000-2010, only two of them have ever made a Pro-Bowl. After Drew Brees and Matt Schaub, the next best quarterbacks in terms of career QB rating include the likes of Tarvaris Jackson, Josh McCown, Kevin Kolb, and Chad Henne. For every Wilson, Dalton, or Kaepernick, there are at least three Andrew Walters, David Greenes, Jimmy Clausens, and Drew Stantons.

Quarterbacks are so valuable in the NFL that if you have the baseline abilities to be a starter, you almost never fall out of the 1^st round. If you fall out of the first round, there’s usually a good reason for it. With Carr, I believe there was. Carr had a great statistical season as a senior at Fresno State, completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.71 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. However, he struggled mightily when pressured, completing 30.9% of his passes under duress last season, according to ESPN stats and information.

He also struggled mightily in Fresno State’s loss in the bowl game to USC, completing 29 of 54 for 216 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, after beating up on weaker competition in the Mountain West all season. As I mentioned, there’s a reason he fell to the 2^nd round. Carr could start a few games as a rookie if Schaub struggles, but most likely he’ll take over as the starter in 2015, as the Raiders can get out of Schaub’s deal penalty free this off-season, going into his age 34 season. Either way, the Raiders are unlikely to get good quarterback play this season, though they could easily have better play than last year, when Terrelle Pryor, Matt Flynn, and Matt McGloin combined to complete 57.4% of their passes for an average of 6.99 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

One of the other reasons I don’t see a revitalization from Matt Schaub this season is because he doesn’t have much talent around him. When Philip Rivers had his bounce back year this year, he had an improved offensive supporting cast. The Raiders, meanwhile, probably have less supporting offensive talent than Schaub did last season in Houston. The weakest unit of the Raiders’ offense is at running back, where Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew will split snaps.

McFadden was benched last season for Rashad Jennings mid-season. Jennings rushed for 733 yards and 6 touchdowns on 163 carries (4.50 YPA) and added another 292 yards on 36 catches through the air. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Jennings is now in New York with the Giants on a 4-year, 10 million dollar deal as the Raiders opted to go with another year of Darren McFadden and an aging Maurice Jones-Drew. Jennings, a 2008 7^th round pick and career journeyman, might not have had the same season in 2014 with the Raiders had he been kept, but the Raiders are unlikely to be as good on the ground as they were in the 2nd half of last season.

The reason McFadden was benched last season was general incompetence, as he finished the season averaging 3.34 yards per carry. In 2012, he averaged 3.27 yards per carry. He has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.19 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 3 seasons since, he’s played a total of 29 games out of 48 and rushed for just 1700 yards and 11 touchdowns on 446 carries (3.81 yards per carry).

This season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked running back. Even with the big 2010 season, he’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 223 carries or 270 touches. McFadden supporters always seem to make excuses for him, blaming the blocking scheme, and the lack of supporting talent, or injuries, but at a certain point he needs to be written off as a bust. Going into his 6^th season in the NFL and his age 27 season, I don’t think he’s a starting caliber running back in the NFL. He was given a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal with 2.25 million extra available through incentives. He’s reportedly the favorite for the starting job, but he and MJD will probably split carries either way.

Maurice Jones-Drew might not be much better. MJD has seen a steep fall from his 2011 season, in which he led the NFL with 1606 rushing yards. That season, he averaged 4.68 yards per carry on 343 carries, added 43 catches for 374 yards, and scored 11 times. He did all of that on an otherwise abysmal offense during Blaine Gabbert’s rookie year, which makes it all the more impressive. That off-season, he demanded a contract that would have paid him among the best running backs in the NFL, holding out almost into the season when the Jaguars didn’t meet his demands.

It turns out that not paying him was one of the best moves the Jaguars have made over the past 5 years. After a 1084 touch workload from 2009-2011, MJD cracked in 2012, managing just 84 carries over 6 years, though he did average 4.81 yards per carry. 2013 was arguably worse as he averaged just 3.43 yards per carry on 234 carries, scored just 5 times on 277 touches, and had just 5 touches go for 20+ yards. Once a candidate to be the highest paid running back in the NFL on his next contract, MJD was met with a frigid market as a free agent going into his age 29 season, signing a 3 year, 7.5 million dollar deal with the Raiders that has just 2.5 million over 1 year guaranteed.

MJD’s rough 2013 season could be largely the result of the complete lack of offensive talent, and thus running room, around him in Jacksonville. However, he averaged just 2.2 yards after contact, broke just 26 tackles, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst running back in terms of pure running grade. Now going into his age 29 season with 2139 career touches, he’s unlikely to get more explosive going into 2014. He also won’t get much more running room in Oakland.

He’ll be an asset for the Raiders on passing downs because he still has strong pass catching and pass blocking skills, catching 43 passes and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in both pass catching grade and pass blocking grade, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd best running back in pass blocking grade. He might not be a better runner than McFadden, which is saying a lot, but he’ll provide some value on passing downs.

The Raiders don’t have many other options at the position either. Latavius Murray is someone they’ve been excited about for the past two off-seasons, but the 2013 6^th round pick missed his entire rookie year with injury. Jeremy Stewart is the only other running back on their roster with experience and he only had 37 career touches. The one saving grace of their running game is fullback Marcel Reece, who has been a top-10 fullback on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons, maxing out at #2 in 2012 and coming in at #6 in 2013. He’s a solid blocker who can also contribute in the passing game and running game, with 290 career touches (152 carries, 138 catches). He’s only a power back at 6-1 255, but he has averaged 4.76 yards per carry in his career and is a candidate for carries this season (he had 46 last season). Either way, the Raiders are unlikely to average the 4.58 yards per carry they averaged last season.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

Things are better on the offensive line, but they’re still not great. Jared Veldheer was a big loss. He didn’t play much last season, disappointing on 335 snaps after coming back mid-season from a torn triceps injury suffered in the pre-season, so in that sense Donald Penn will be an upgrade, over Khalif Barnes and a little bit of a less than 100% Jared Veldheer. Barnes was Pro Football Focus’ 59^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 11 starts at left tackle and struggled in 5 games at left guard as well.

Donald Penn, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked offensive tackle. That being said, letting Jared Veldheer leave on a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal to Arizona, in favor of signing Donald Penn for 9.2 million over 2 years, was a mistake. It wasn’t a bad value for Penn, but Veldheer was a young building block for a team still in building mode and the Raiders had money to splurge. Veldheer, a 2010 3rd round pick, was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and 12th ranked offensive tackle in 2012, one of 7 offensive tackles to grade out in the top-17 in both seasons (Joe Thomas, Duane Brown, Eugene Monroe, Tyson Clabo, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth). Sure that was sandwiched in between a poor rookie year and an injury plagued contract year, but I have confidence he can continue his strong play on the blindside in Arizona.

Penn, meanwhile, is going into his age 31 season, has had issues with his weight, and has shown decline, all of which led to his release from Tampa Bay this off-season. He’s been Pro Football Focus’ 16^th, 24^th, and 31^st ranked offensive tackle in the last 3 seasons respectively. He should have another solid season on the blindside left in his tank, but it’s a downgrade from what Veldheer could have been.

Austin Howard was the Raiders’ other big offensive line addition this off-season. Howard has been solid at right tackle for the Jets since taking over the starting job before the 2012 season. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st and 47^th ranked offensive tackle in the last 2 seasons respectively, obviously unspectacular, but getting the job done. He’s been about average or above in each of the last 2 seasons. However, the Raiders have talked about moving him to right guard, where he has no experience, which would be a weird move.

The Raiders’ rationale for doing that was that they would be getting the best five off-season linemen on the field at the same time, but I don’t see another qualified starting right tackle on their roster. Menelik Watson would probably start at right tackle if Howard moved inside. The Raiders used a 2^nd round pick on him in 2013, even though he was a few years older than most players in the draft class. He struggled mightily on 177 snaps as a rookie. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but he’s already going into his age 26 season so he might not be getting much better. Still, the plan seems to be for him to start at right tackle and Howard to start at right guard.

If Watson continues to struggle though, they could move Howard back to right tackle and start someone else at right guard. That someone else would probably be another veteran free agent addition, Kevin Boothe. Going into his age 31 season, Boothe has been with the Giants for the last 7 seasons, after one season with the Raiders in 2006, after they drafted him in the 6^th round in 2006. Boothe has generally struggled in his career, but he’s stuck with the Giants as a reserve offensive lineman because of his ability to play any of the three interior offensive line positions. He’s only been a true starter for 2 seasons and he’s only graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 2 of 6 seasons since 2008. He struggled last season and he’s not getting any better going into his 30s.

Left guard is up for grabs as well. Khalif Barnes is the veteran option. Barnes, as I mentioned earlier, struggled mightily last season at both left tackle and left guard. That’s nothing new as he hasn’t graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in any of the last 6 seasons, including 3 seasons as a starter. He’s been primarily a right tackle and could be an option there. Likewise, the other three competitors for the starting left guard position (Tony Bergstrom, Lucas Nix, and Gabe Jackson) could also see snaps at right guard this season. The offensive line is obviously very much in flux.

Bergstrom was a 3^rd round pick in 2012. He played 115 snaps as a rookie and then missed all of last season with injury. He’s already going into his age 28 season as he was another old rookie and he seems like a long shot for any serious playing time. In fact, early reports say he’s more likely to be a final cut than anything. Lucas Nix, meanwhile, was an undrafted free agent in 2012. He played 28 snaps as a rookie and was horrific as a starter in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst guard by a wide margin despite only playing 666 snaps in 10 starts. Finally, Jackson is a 3^rd round rookie. It’s definitely a position of weakness.

Center is the only position other than left tackle that’s really set in stone. Stefen Wisniewski is probably their best offensive lineman. A 2011 2^nd round pick, Wisniewski has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th and 10^th ranked center in the last 2 seasons respectively, after playing left guard as a rookie. The Raiders would be wise to extend him long-term. He, Howard, and Penn are solid offensive linemen, but Howard might be playing a new position, Penn is aging with a history of weight problems, and their options to start at the other two spots are pretty poor. They might be better than last season (when they were 23^rd and 28^th on Pro Football Focus in team pass block and run block grade), but it’s definitely a unit with issues.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Raiders’ big off-season addition at wide receiver was James Jones. Jones is younger than most of their off-season additions, but even he is going into his age 30 season. Jones isn’t as good as the 14 touchdowns he caught in 2012 would suggest. That rate of 14 touchdowns on 64 catches was unsustainable and he proved that last season when he caught just 3 touchdowns on 59 catches. In his career, he has 37 touchdowns on 310 catches. He’s never put up big numbers despite playing most of his career with either Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre. He’s averaged 1.49 yards per route run in his career, which is pretty mediocre, though his 33 catches for 427 yards and a touchdown in 8 games without Aaron Rodgers last season should give Raiders fans some hope that he can produce with sub-par quarterback play this season. Still, he’s only an average receiver at best.

That being said, he could still be their best receiver. The Raiders have a good amount of receiving depth with a good amount of guys who are solid, but they really lack one dominant wide receiver. Rod Streater, Denarius Moore, Andre Holmes, and Juron Criner will all be in the mix for snaps this season. Streater and Moore will probably compete for the starting job opposite Jones. Streater, a 2012 undrafted free agent, has had two solid seasons in the NFL, averaging 1.69 yards per route run, despite poor quarterback play, including 1.80 yards per carry last season. Now heading into his 3^rd season in the NFL, he could have his best year yet.

Moore, meanwhile, has averaged 1.65 yards per route run in 3 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 5^th round in 2011, but he’s a pretty one dimensional speedster who hasn’t played a full 16 game season yet and has been in and out of the starting lineup with injuries and other issues. He’s probably best as a #3 receiver, though he’s still a solid receiver. Andre Holmes is another former undrafted free agent, going undrafted in 2011. He had a strong finish to last season, catching 22 passes for 366 yards and a touchdown in his final 5 games and averaging 1.72 yards per route run. Juron Criner only has 19 career catches since being drafted in the 4^th round in 2012, but the Raiders reportedly love what he’s doing this off-season. Either way, there’s talent at wide receiver, but not a true game breaker.

Things are better at wide receiver than at tight end. With things so bad at the position last year, Mychal Rivera had to be the primary receiving tight end, despite being a 6^th round rookie, beating out fellow 6^th round rookie Nick Kasa for the job. Rivera caught 38 passes for 407 yards and 4 touchdowns, while averaging a mediocre 1.20 yards per route run. Rivera split snaps with Jeron Mastrud, a blocking tight end who was mediocre at his job and caught 8 passes. The Raiders frequently ran 3-wide receiver sets as a result of their lack of talent at the position.

Kasa could be better in his 2^nd year in the league and get a bigger role and Rivera could improve as a pass catcher, but it looks like things are pretty much going to be the same at the position this season as they didn’t add anything this off-season. They do reportedly have some interest in free agent Jermichael Finley, who is still available into June because he’s coming off of a very serious neck fusion surgery. The receiving corps might be the Raiders’ best offensive unit, but it’s not great.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The defensive line is where the Raiders focused most of their energy this off-season. They did lose LaMarr Houston and Vance Walker which will hurt, but they add veterans like Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith. The issue is that all 3 of them are going into their age 30+ seasons and Houston and Walker were talented young players. Houston, now with the Bears, was a 2010 2nd round pick and has been a well above average 4-3 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons, grading out 19th, 9th, and 11th on Pro Football Focus among 4-3 defensive ends in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. Walker, now with the Chiefs, was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle in 2012 and 36th ranked in 2013, both above average.

Tuck will be Houston’s direct replacement, playing defensive end in base packages and moving inside to defensive tackle in sub packages, a role he played in with the Giants previously. Tuck has obviously had some great seasons, including last season when he was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked 4-3 defensive end, but he’s going into his age 31 season. He also was just about a league average starter in 2011 and 2012 and missed 5 games and was limited in several others during that time frame.

LaMarr Woodley, going into his age 30 season, will be the starter opposite Tuck. He’ll be an obviously upgrade over Jason Hunter, who started last season and was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked 4-3 defensive end. This will be Woodley’s first experience as a pro in a 4-3, though he played 4-3 defensive end in college at Michigan. Woodley was cut by the Steelers this off-season halfway through a massive 6-year deal because he wasn’t living up to expectations. He has missed 14 games over the last 3 seasons combined, maxing out at 641 snaps, and, while he’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of those 3 seasons, he hasn’t graded out higher than 10^th among 3-4 outside linebackers, which isn’t what the Steelers signed up for (he was #1 and #5 in 2009 and 2010 respectively). He’s probably a 600-700 snap type player at this stage of his career, provided he can even stay healthy, but when he’s on the field, he should still be a solid player.

When Tuck moves inside to defensive tackle in sub packages, Khalil Mack will move down to the defensive line and rush the passer from the edge, the Von Miller role. Mack was the 5^th overall pick in the draft and is probably their most promising young star. Given their lack of young talent, they need him to turn into the star he can become. Sio Moore essentially played that role last season as a 3^rd round rookie, playing 206 pass rush snaps. He was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. Mack could see closer to 300 pass rush snaps, if not more, as a rookie, and Moore will also see some pass rush snaps, though he’ll focus more on being more of a traditional three-down outside linebacker.

Antonio Smith was the other veteran addition to this defensive line. The 6-3 272 pounder is undersized, going into his age 33 season, and has never played 4-3 defensive tackle in his career. He’s a great pass rusher who has excelled over the past 3 seasons in Wade Phillips’ defense in Houston, grading out 8^th, 6^th, and 17^th in the last 3 seasons respectively among 3-4 defensive ends, including 2^nd, 2^nd, and 5^th in pure pass rush grade. However, he’s shown decline, which is concerning at his age, he struggles against the run, and he hasn’t been as good in his career outside of Wade Phillips’ defense. He was actually Pro Football Focus’ 65^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 73 eligible in 2009. He’ll add to their interior pass rush as an older replacement for Walker, but I expect him to struggle against the run.

Pat Sims will be their other starting defensive tackle and play pretty much primarily in base packages. Sims was a 3rd round pick by the Bengals in 2008 and was a largely irrelevant backup in Cincinnati for 5 years before last season, playing a combined 481 snaps in 2011 and 2012. He broke out in Oakland last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle last season on 694 snaps, excelling against the run and grading out above average as both a pass rusher and a run stopper. He’s still just a one year wonder at this point, which is why he didn’t draw much interest on the open market, but it was still a smart move by the Raiders bringing him back on a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal.

The Raiders also drafted Justin Ellis in the 4th round and the 6-1 334 pounder could contribute in base packages as a rookie if the Raiders decide they want to have Smith focus on being more of a sub package rusher. Stacy McGee, a 2013 6^th round pick who struggled on 354 snaps as a rookie, could also be in the mix. The 6-3 310 pounder is more of a run stuffer. The organization seems to be pretty high on him for some reason.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

I already mentioned that Khalil Mack will play strong side linebacker in base packages and move to defensive end in sub packages. Sio Moore, as I also already mentioned, will be moving to more of a three-down role at weakside linebacker and rush the passer from the defensive line sparingly. That could be a very good move. While Moore graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, he actually was below average as a pass rusher and above average both in coverage and as a run stopper. He was 6^th in run stopping grade and 10^th in coverage grade, though he only had 94 coverage snaps so take that with a grain of salt. Still, he has the potential to breakout as one of the better three down 4-3 outside linebackers in the NFL this season.

At middle linebacker, Nick Roach should be the starter for the second straight season, though he could get some competition from Kevin Burnett. Roach was Pro Football Focus’ 42^nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season, struggling mightily against the run, grading out 2^nd worst at his position in that facet of the game. He’s never been that great, dating back to his days in Chicago. Burnett, meanwhile, seems like a man without a job right now. He started at 4-3 outside linebacker last season, playing every down and grading out slightly below average. When the Raiders drafted Mack and moved Moore to more of a three down role, it sent Burnett to the 2^nd string.

Burnett has had some good years, including 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker and 2010, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th ranked middle linebacker, but he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of a down year. If he can’t beat out the younger Roach for the starting job in the middle, he could be cut, which would save the Raiders 2.875 million in cash and cap space. They aren’t exactly pressed for cap space though and he’s still a contributor on running downs, grading out 2^nd at his position in run grade last season (2^nd worst in coverage). They could rotate him inside with Roach, whose weakness is obviously the run.

Grade: B

Secondary

Arguably the Raiders’ best off-season move was signing Tarell Brown. It was only on a one year deal, but they only are giving him 3.5 million and he’s under 30, which is a refreshing change of pace from the rest of their signings this off-season. Brown has been an above average starter for the 49ers in each of the past 3 seasons, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out at 13th overall in 2012, including 4th in pure coverage grade.

However, the worst of his 3 seasons as a starter was this season as he “only” graded out 32nd and missed 3 games with a rib injury that limited him upon his return. That’s why he had to settle for this one-year deal, betting on himself rather than taking a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal from San Francisco. He should be an obvious upgrade on Mike Jenkins, assuming he stays healthy. He didn’t miss a game in either 2011 or 2012 so that’s not a serious concern.

He’s probably their best defensive back. DJ Hayden, their 2013 1^st round pick, will probably start opposite him. Hayden struggled mightily on 353 snaps as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 89^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in pure coverage grade last season, despite his limited playing time. He was behind the 8-ball from the word go because of injury problems and rookie cornerbacks tend to take a year or so to develop anyway, so he could be better this season, but he also might have been over-drafted at 12^th overall. Several league sources believed he was after the 2013 draft. He’s also rehabbing a serious ankle injury this off-season, which won’t help him play catch-up.

The Raiders’ 3^rd cornerback is another former-49er, Carlos Rogers. Rogers is another aging veteran, going into his age 33 season. Rogers was a first round pick in 2005 by the Redskins, but he never quite lived up to his draft slot. He’s graded out just about average in every season of his career, with the exception of 2011, his first year in San Francisco. He was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked cornerback that season on a one-year deal and earned himself a big 4-year contract.

He’s declined in each of the past 2 seasons, ranking 46^th in 2012 and 71^st in 2013 (below average), which led to his release this off-season. He was especially bad in coverage, grading 86^th out of 110 among cornerbacks in pure coverage grade. He’s a declining player who had a hard time finding work on the open market this off-season. He’ll definitely play on the slot this season and could even work as the #2 cornerback if Hayden can’t establish himself. Still, the Raiders cornerbacks should be better this season, as Rogers still should be an upgrade on Tracy Porter, Brown should be an upgrade on Mike Jenkins, and DJ Hayden should be at least a little better in his 2^nd year in the league.

One other area they should be better at is safety, by virtue of Tyvon Branch returning from injury. Branch played just 66 snaps last season, going down for the season with a leg injury during week 2. Converted cornerback Brandian Cooks took over for him and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked safety in the league last season. Branch isn’t a spectacular player, but he’s better than that, as long as he’s healthy. The 2008 4^th round pick graded out above average in 3 of 4 seasons as a starter from 2009-2012, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked safety in 2011 and missing a combined 2 games over those 4 years.

The other starter will continue to be Charles Woodson, who is old even on a team of old players, as he heads into his age 38 season. The future Hall-of-Famer graded out slightly above average last season, a testament to the type of player he is. The converted cornerback also graded out slightly above average in 2012 with Green Bay, though he did miss 9 games with injury that season. There’s no guarantee he can continue to do that though and the Raiders depth at the position is suspect.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

Woodson is the Raiders’ oldest starter, but he’s hardly their only 30+ starter. They’ll have at least 7 week 1 starters going into their age 30+ season (Matt Schaub, Donald Penn, James Jones, Justin Tuck, Antonio Brown, LaMarr Woodley) and they have another 4 who could be week 1 starters (Carlos Rogers, Kevin Burnett, Khalif Barnes, Kevin Boothe), so they’ll have between 7-11 week 1 starters who are entering their age 30+ season.

They have more talent than they did last season, but they’re still among the lower half of the NFL in terms of talent and this really just seems like them selling out their future for one season of 6-10. They also run the risk of having a significant amount of players show serious decline this season. Their defense is their stronger side of the ball and they could even be an above average unit on that side of the ball if their old defensive line can hold up, but their offense has a lot of issues. I’ll have an official prediction after all of the season previews, but they should be below .500 and near the bottom of the AFC West. One positive thing for them, they have a Vegas wins total of 6 wins or fewer (5 wins). Teams go over the total about 2/3rds of the time in that situation, as it’s very hard to be really bad for a long time. The Raiders have been really bad for a long time though.

Season Prediction: 5-11 4th in AFC West

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Kansas City Chiefs 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 7, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

There was a time last season when the Chiefs were sitting pretty atop the NFL at 9-0 that Alex Smith was 29-5-1 in his last 35 starts. People like to give him all the credit for those wins, but in reality, he was lucky enough to face generally easy competition and have a strong running game and defense supporting him, both in San Francisco and Kansas City. In those 35 games, the offenses Smith led averaged about 24.1 points per game, above average, but not terribly impressive considering his offensive supporting cast and the easy schedule he faced.

Still, Kansas City at 9-0 looked like they would at least be what the 2011 49ers were, a 13-3 team that was a bounce of the ball away from the Super Bowl. They weren’t though, as the schedule got tougher. It wasn’t significantly tougher as they still finished the regular season with the #32 schedule of strength in terms of DVOA. However, their schedule to start the season was a joke. Only one of their 9 opponents finished the regular season above .500 and that was Philadelphia, who was still starting Michael Vick at that point. 4 of their 9 opponents finished the season 4-12.

Combined, those 9 teams finished 62-82 (.431) and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. They played 4 teams who were starting backup quarterbacks and had a 5 week stretch in which they faced Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, and Thad Lewis. Despite that, they won just 3 of them by more than 10 points and won two of them by exactly 1 point. The rest of the way, the Chiefs went 2-5 and then lost in the first round of the playoffs in Indianapolis. They finished the regular season with 1 win against a team that finished above .500, that Philadelphia win, as opposed to 6 losses against such teams (including playoffs).

Alex Smith was the main culprit, as he once again showed an inability to push the ball deep downfield and make the throws needed to beat good opponents. He completed just 35 of 92 passes more than 10 yards downfield outside the numbers or more than 20 yards downfield in the middle of the field, including 14 of 45 passes 20+ yards downfield. He’ll need to play better this season as the Chiefs schedule will be harder, by default, and they swap out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. I don’t know if he can. He’s the type of quarterback that’s only as good as his supporting cast. In terms of passing grade, he was Pro Football Focus’ 29^th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The bad news for Smith is that his supporting cast is significantly worse this season. The Chiefs went into the off-season with their biggest weakness being at wide receiver. Not only did they not address that position, but they also lost 3 talented offensive linemen, their three best offensive linemen, who combined to make 28 starts last season. They won’t get much immediate help from their rookie class as they used their first round pick on Dee Ford, who will play behind Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and probably won’t start until 2015 when Houston could be gone as a free agent (side note, the Chiefs are going to regret passing on Teddy Bridgewater for Dee Ford and extending Alex Smith over Justin Houston. In a year when the Chiefs are stuck with Smith/Ford instead of Bridgewater/Houston, the Chiefs’ strategy won’t make much sense). They didn’t have a second round pick as they traded it the year before for Alex Smith.

It’s arguable that the Chiefs lost the most talent of any team in the NFL this off-season and nowhere will that be more noticeable than on the offensive line. Branden Albert, who was graded out well above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, is now in Miami and the Chiefs will slide Eric Fisher from right tackle to left tackle. He was Pro Football Focus’ 70^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible last season in 14 starts. Fisher could be better in his 2^nd year in the NFL. After all, he was the #1 overall pick in last year’s draft and his natural, collegiate position is left tackle. That being said, he was the #1 overall pick in one of the weakest drafts in recent memory and the blindside is typically a tougher position in the NFL because you aren’t getting tight end help as often and you’re more often getting the opponent’s best pass rusher.

Fisher at left tackle is a minor concern, but the bigger concern is Donald Stephenson at right tackle. Stephenson, a 2012 3^rd round pick, has struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play in 2 years in the league, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 58^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible on just 377 snaps in 2012 and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible on 543 snaps in 2013. Furthermore, it’s telling about Fisher that, when Branden Albert missed a few games last year, they stuck Stephenson at left tackle instead of Fisher. If, for whatever reason, they do that going into 2014, they’re in even more trouble. Fisher should be able to lock down the left tackle job ahead of Stephenson, who isn’t qualified to protect a quarterback’s blindside in the NFL.

At guard, Geoff Schwartz and Jon Asamoah are gone, but Jeff Allen remains. That’s not a good thing though. While Schwartz and Asamoah were Pro Football Focus’ 8^th and 20^th ranked guards respectively last season, Allen was 61^st out of 81 eligible. He struggled in 2012 as well, as the then 2^nd round rookie graded out as the 3^rd worst player at his position. He’ll start at left guard.

Sadly, he’s probably their top guard. Opposite him, Jeff Linkenbach is penciled in and will probably begin the season as the starter, out of lack of alternatives, not on merit. Linkenbach has graded out well below average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2010, struggling at both guard and tackle. His only season as a full-time starter was in 2011, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus 7^th worst ranked offensive tackle. He was under-qualified as a 6^th, swing offensive lineman in Indianapolis last year and he’s definitely under-qualified as a starter. The Chiefs’ alternatives include Rokevious Watkins, a 2012 5^th round pick of the Rams who has struggled in limited action thus far, and Laurent Duverney-Tardif, a raw 6^th round rookie from Canada.

The only stable position on the offensive line for the Chiefs is center, where Rodney Hudson is the starter. Hudson, a 2011 2^nd round pick, graded out about average on Pro Football Focus last season as their 17^th ranked center in his first full-year as a starter, after converting from guard. He was also very solid in 3 starts in 2012 before going down for the season with injury. That being said, when he’s your best offensive lineman, and he very well could be, you’re in big trouble.

The Chiefs were 10^th in the NFL in pass block efficiency last season. This season, they could easily be among the worst in the NFL in that facet, especially when you consider that their schedule will be tougher this season. That’s an issue considering Alex Smith completed 46.1% of his passes under pressure last season. They also will have more trouble opening up holes for Jamaal Charles than they did last season, when they were Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked team in terms of team run blocking grade.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs’ biggest weakness going into the off-season was their receiving corps. This was clear as Jamaal Charles, their starting running back, led the team in receiving yards, catching 70 passes for 693 yards and 7 touchdowns, all team leaders. Charles is a fantastic pass catching back, but they need someone else to step up as a receiving threat, particularly down the field.

Dwayne Bowe is supposed to be that guy, after the Chiefs gave him a 5-year, 56 million dollar deal before last season, after franchise tagging him the off-season before. Bowe has always been able to put up big numbers, catching 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career before last season, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. However, last year with Smith, arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with, he managed just 57 passes for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Part of it was just that Alex Smith’s limited arm strength meant that he didn’t look often to the parts of the field to which Bowe often ran his routes last season, but part of it is on Bowe. He got 101 targets last season, which should have been more than enough for Bowe to establish himself as a threat more often. After finally getting a long-term deal, it looked like Bowe, who has a history of issues with motivation, let himself get out of shape a little bit and wasn’t always giving 100%. He’s also is going into his age 30 season so age is a bit of a concern. He’s reportedly changing his diet to try to stay in better shape for next season, which could help him, but I’m not expecting him to become a big-time receiving threat again in 2014.

Sadly, Bowe is still by far their best wide receiver. Donnie Avery, out of necessity, will be the other starting receiver again. Avery had a solid rookie year as a 2nd round rookie in 2008, but a bunch of leg injuries that limited him to 3 catches in 8 games combined in 2010 and 2011 have really taken their toll on him. He appeared to have revitalized his career in 2012 in Indianapolis, where he caught a career high 60 passes for a career high 781 yards to go with 3 touchdowns, but he was actually one of the most inefficient receivers in the NFL. He graded 100th out of 105 eligible at his position on Pro Football Focus, had his position’s 3rd highest drop rate among eligible receivers (12 drops to 60 catches) and ranked 70th out of 82 eligible in QB rating when thrown to, catching those 60 passes on 112 targets with 3 interceptions to those 3 touchdowns. Last year, he wasn’t much better, grading out 105^th out of 111 eligible.

In addition to not upgrading the wide receiver position, the Chiefs also lost slot receiver Dexter McCluster this off-season. He was a solid part of their offense and Alex Smith enjoyed checking down to him. He caught 53 passes for 511 yards and 2 touchdowns last season and more than half of his yards per reception (5.1 per catch) came after the catch. AJ Jenkins and Junior Hemingway are now their top receivers on the depth chart after Avery. Hemingway, a 2012 7^th round pick, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 102^nd ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible last season despite playing just 315 snaps. It’s hard to expect much more from him this season.

AJ Jenkins, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2012, but didn’t catch a pass in his rookie year in San Francisco and was traded to the Chiefs for another former first round pick bust Jonathan Baldwin last off-season. He only caught 8 passes last season, but he’s a better fit in Andy Reid’s offense than he was in Jim Harbaugh’s and he had a decent week 17 when the Chiefs rested their starters, as he caught 3 passes for 67 yards. Still, it would be very much wishful thinking for the Chiefs to expect him to have a 3^rd year breakout year. He was a surprise first round pick to begin with and really looks like he never deserved to be drafted that high. If he develops enough to take Avery’s starting job, the Chiefs should count that as a win, but I’m not even sure he can do that. DeAnthony Thomas, a 4^th round rookie, is a gadget player and slot option who is a long-shot for serious playing time. The Chiefs have a lot of problems at wide receiver. It’s slim pickings for Alex Smith.

Things aren’t much better at tight end. Alex Smith has to be missing Vernon Davis, a dominant tight end who he loved throwing to in San Francisco. Smith loves throwing short and over the middle, but doesn’t have anyone who can even come close to dominating in that part of the field. Anthony Fasano is the incumbent starter and will probably keep his starting job, but he only caught 23 passes for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns last season and didn’t excel as a blocker.

Travis Kelce was the Chiefs’ 2013 3^rd round pick. He didn’t play a snap as a rookie because of injury and, as much upside as he may have in terms of pass catching ability, he’s still completely unproven on the field. Sean McGrath, a 2012 undrafted free agent, also got in the mix last season, catching 26 passes for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs also do a fair amount of throwing to the fullback, as Anthony Sherman caught 18 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. He also graded out as by far Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked blocking fullback and #1 ranked fullback overall. And, of course, the Chiefs also throw a lot to Jamaal Charles. Overall though, it’s a very weak unit for the Chiefs.

Grade: C

Running Backs

I already mentioned the Chiefs’ dominant fullback Anthony Sherman and Jamaal Charles prowess as a pass catcher, but he’s also a hell of a runner as well. He’s the one saving grace of the Chiefs’ offense. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the best running back in football. His 5.58 career yards per carry are the highest all-time by a modern era running back (1960-today). Jim Brown comes in 2^nd and even the legendary Brown averaged “just” 5.22 yards per carry.

Last season, Charles averaged 4.97 yards per carry on 259 yards, rushing for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns, in addition to what he did as a pass catcher. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked running back overall (behind LeSean McCoy) and 4^th ranked in pure running grade (behind McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson). In 2012, on a bad team and a year removed from a torn ACL, he averaged 5.29 yards per carry on 285 carries, rushing for 1509 yards and 5 touchdowns, a season that would have gotten much more recognition if the Chiefs had been better and if Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning hadn’t had more impressive comeback seasons. Charles will probably never be a 300+ carry back under Andy Reid, but the Chiefs pass to the running back enough to make up for it.

There are some concerns here though. I already mentioned the Chiefs’ declining offensive line in front of him. It’s also just very tough to count on your star running back to do everything on offense. The 5-10 200 pound back now has 649 touches in 2 seasons back from that torn ACL and he could be wearing out a little bit going into his age 28 season. If anything happens to him, the Chiefs’ insurance policy is Knile Davis, a 2013 3^rd round pick who had 88 total carries (regular season and post-season) as a rookie and rushed for 309 yards (3.51 yards per carry) and 5 touchdowns, while adding 18 catches for 108 yards. He’s basically just a goal line, short yardage back and the Chiefs would obviously be in trouble if he had to become the lead back. Most likely Charles stays healthy, has another dominant year, and tries to carry this offense, but the concerns with having a running back being such a big part of your offense needed to be mentioned.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

While the Chiefs had big losses on offense this off-season, they didn’t lose much on defense. Tyson Jackson was probably their biggest loss as the former 3^rd overall pick finally had a strong year in his contract year in 2013, only to sign with Atlanta this off-season. The Chiefs made the right move letting him sign for more than he was worth in Atlanta (5-year, 25 million), as he’s still a one year wonder who could coast now that he’s been paid and he’s also only a part-time, one-dimensional player, as good as he is against the run (10^th among 3-4 defensive ends in run grade on Pro Football Focus in 2013). They got better value by signing Vance Walker for 3 years, 13 million, even if he might not be as good as Jackson was last season.

Unlike the one-dimensional, specialized Jackson, Walker is equally solid as a run stopper and a pass rusher. He won’t be as good as Jackson was against the run in base packages, but he’ll play some sub packages, which Jackson never did. That will cut into some Allen Bailey’s and Dontari Poe’s snaps, which isn’t a bad thing because the former, a situational sub package rusher, ironically struggled as a pass rusher last season and did his best work against the run. Meanwhile, the latter played an absurd 66.9 snaps per game last season at 6-3 346 and could use more frequent breathers. Walker was Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked defensive tackle in 2012 and 36^th ranked in 2013, both above average. One concern is that he’s never played in a 3-4 as a pro and at 6-2 305, he seems like a bit of an odd fit in the Chiefs’ defensive scheme.

Opposite Walker, Mike DeVito is essentially a more consistently, better version of Tyson Jackson, a pure base defensive end who excels against the run. Playing just 446 snaps, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, with no one playing fewer snaps than him and grading out higher, and he was 4^th in pure run grade. In 2012, he was 9^th at his position on 554 snaps, including 7^th in pure run grade. In 2011, he was 9^th at his position on 414 snaps, including 5^th in pure run grade. In 2010, he was 6^th at his position on 552 snaps, including 2^nd in pure run grade. Somehow, only Calais Campbell has also graded out top-10 among 3-4 defensive ends in each of the last 4 seasons and DeVito is doing it despite playing only half the snaps. He’ll see almost no snaps in sub packages this year with Vance Walker, Dontari Poe, and, to an extent, Allen Bailey rotating at defensive tackle in sub packages.

Speaking of Poe, I mentioned he played an absurd amount of snaps last year. His 1004 snaps played led all defensive tackles and he did it in 15 games, despite being a monstrous 6-3 346. Only 5 other defensive linemen played that many snaps last season. The nose tackle stayed on the field for almost every single sub package snap, which is incredibly rare and incredibly impressive. He played every single snap in 5 games and missed 63 snaps all season, excluding the week 17 game in which the Chiefs rested their starters. In the playoff loss to Indianapolis, he dominated, while playing 59 of 67 possible snaps.

The 2012 1^st round pick broke out last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked defensive tackle. He excelled against the run, but also played well as a pass rusher, despite his massive size. The big man has rare movement abilities. In his 3^rd year in the league, only his age 24 season, he could be even better. He’ll probably be more efficient at the very least if they can get him a few more breathers, though he’s not exactly someone you want to take off the field.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned earlier the Chiefs’ deadly combination of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali at rush linebacker. Hali might be better known, but Houston is actually the better of the two linebackers. A 3^rd round pick in 2011, Houston only fell because of a failed drug test at the combine. His off-the-field issues have been a non-factor in his career thus far, which has allowed him to dominate off the edge. He first proved his worth in 7 late season starts as a rookie, a stretch in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 5 of 7 games. Despite issues in coverage (worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in coverage in 2011), he still graded out 13^th at his position that season on 773 snaps, including 10^th as a pass rusher and 5^th as a run stopper.

That allowed Houston to lock down the starting job going into 2012, which was his breakout year on an otherwise abysmal 2-14 Chiefs team. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out above average in coverage, as a pass rusher, and against the run, while committing just 1 penalty all season. Meanwhile, teammate Tamba Hali graded out 15^th at the position. Houston continued his strong play in 2013, which was his best season as a pro.

Despite missing 5 ½ games with an injury, Houston still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and would have been in the running for Defensive Player of the Year had he stayed healthy. Prior to his injury, he missed 7 snaps all season. His most dominant performances were week 3 against Philadelphia, when he had 7 tackles for a stop (within 4 yards of the original line of scrimmage on first down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down), including 4 sacks, and week 11 against Denver, when he had 10 total tackles, including 8 for a stop. If the Chiefs did draft Dee Ford in order to be Houston’s replacement long-term, freeing up money to extend Alex Smith long-term, rather than taking Teddy Bridgewater to be Alex Smith’s replacement and locking up Houston long-term, they’re going to really regret it. He’s one of the best players in football.

Hali opposite him is the “other” pass rusher, which tells you how good the Chiefs are at the rush linebacker position. There might not be a better pair of rush linebackers in the NFL and they might be the best pair of edge rushers in general, regardless of scheme. Hali was “only” Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season. He was 15^th in 2012, in a down year, but otherwise he’s been a dominant edge rusher since converting to rush linebacker in 2009.

He was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th, 1^st, and 4^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively. In 2010, he had arguably the most impressive season in terms of purely rushing the passer of any player in the last 5 years as he had 17 sacks, 16 hits, and 64 hurries on 543 pass rush snaps, an absurd 17.9% rate (basically he was pressuring the quarterback on more than a 1/6 of his pass rush snaps).

The biggest issue with Hali is his age as he goes into his age 31 season. He’s shown some small signs of decline over the past two seasons and, if he has a down year this year, (completely possible considering guys like Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, and Dwight Freeney have done similar things at similar points in their careers) Hali could be a cap casualty going into 2015. The Chiefs would save 9 million in cash and cap space by cutting him going into what would be his age 32 contract year, which would allow the Chiefs to re-sign Houston.

Either way, with the Chiefs drafting Dee Ford in the first round, it looks like this could very well by the final year of Houston/Hali on the edge for the Chiefs. As a rookie, Ford will work purely as a depth player, which was a need as Frank Zombo was previously their primary reserve, and he’s pretty mediocre. However, he’s unlikely to provide the immediate value for the Chiefs that they need considering all they lost this off-season.

At middle linebacker, the Chiefs have another stud linebacker, Derrick Johnson. Johnson doesn’t get the recognition of guys like Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, and Luke Kuechly, but he’s in that same class of player. Mr. Reliable, Johnson has been a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons, something only Patrick Willis himself can also say. Last season, he was 3^rd. Even in 2009, the last season he was outside of the top-5, he graded out 8^th and did it on 344 snaps.

Todd Haley did a lot of things wrong in Kansas City, but his biggest success was his ability to bring the most out of Johnson, a 2005 1^st round pick, with discipline and toughness. Haley benched Johnson during 2009 for a variety of reasons and that served as a much needed wakeup call. He hasn’t looked back since. Even going into his age 32 season, he could easily have another strong season, as he’s yet to really show signs of aging, though his age is beginning to become a concern.

The only issue in the linebacking corps for the Chiefs is the other middle linebacker spot inside next to Johnson. Joe Mays is penciled in at that spot after the Chiefs lost yet another starter, Akeem Jordan, to free agency. Jordan wasn’t spectacular or anything as a part-time player and two down run stuffer, but he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked middle linebacker in run grade last season on just 489 snaps.

It’s not a particularly important position as it’s only a two-down position. Eric Berry usually comes down towards the line of scrimmage as a box safety in sub packages and essentially plays linebacker, with the Chiefs going to 3 safeties. However, Mays should be a downgrade. A 2008 6^th round pick, Mays has graded out slightly below average in each of the last 3 seasons on Pro Football Focus, functioning as a fringe starter in both Denver and Houston. His strength is the run, but he’s not what Jordan was last season. Their other option is 2013 4^th round pick Nico Johnson, who played 17 snaps as a rookie. He’s a long-shot for the starting job.

Grade: A

Secondary

Speaking of Eric Berry, the safety/linebacker is Kansas City’s best defensive back. The 5^th overall pick in 2010, Berry was overrated for a while, undeservedly making the Pro-Bowl in both 2010 and 2012. Berry played well as a rookie in 2010, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked safety, but he wasn’t Pro-Bowl caliber. He could have broken out as Pro-Bowl caliber in 2011, but he tore his ACL 5 snaps into the season. He was solid again in 2012, upon his return, grading out about average on Pro Football Focus, but he still wasn’t Pro-Bowl caliber and still didn’t appear to be reaching his full potential.

In 2013, his 4^th year in the league, Berry did reach his potential, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked safety and deservedly making the Pro-Bowl. Now completely healthy with 1 game missed in his other 3 seasons (a meaningless week 17 game last year), Berry is going into his age 26 contract year and should have another solid season. By virtue of frequently playing as a sub package linebacker, Berry primarily lines up within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage (69.7% of snaps in 2013, 3^rd in the NFL). That being said, coverage is still his strong suit. The only issue with him playing linebacker often is that it takes arguably their best coverage back out of the secondary in sub packages, but he can still add to their coverage in a significant way from middle linebacker.

The Chiefs lost a lot of depth at safety this off-season. None of the guys they lost were particularly good, but they need as much depth as possible given how often they use 3 safeties. Kendrick Lewis and Quintin Demps both graded out slightly below average last season on 1079 and 665 snaps respectively, but that depth will be missed. Husain Abdullah will now be the #2 safety. He was decent on 294 snaps last season after being out of the league in 2012 for religious reasons. He was a solid starter in Minnesota before that and is still younger than 30.

The bigger concern is their 3^rd safety. There are five options. Malcolm Bronson was an undrafted free agent in 2013 and didn’t play at all as a rookie. Daniel Sorensen is an undrafted free agent rookie. Sanders Commings, a tweener cornerback/safety at 6-0 216, played 3 snaps as a 5^th round rookie last season. Jerron McMillan actually has experience. The 2012 4^th round pick was solid as a rookie on 609 snaps as a rookie in Green Bay, but struggled mightily on 196 snaps in 2013, leading to his release. He was a week 1 starter, but he would have graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th worst safety last season despite his very limited playing time, if he was eligible. The fourth option is to convert one of their cornerbacks to safety in sub packages. Phillip Gaines, a 6-0 193 pound 3^rd round rookie, is one option and Sean Smith, a 6-3 215 pounder, also has some safety experience.

The only way that could happen is if the Chiefs don’t cut Brandon Flowers. The Chiefs can get out of his 7.5 million dollar salary and spread out his 7 million dollar cap hit over two seasons if they cut him today as a post-June 1^st cut, which is reportedly a consideration for them. That would save them 7.25 million on the cap. Trading him would reportedly be their preference. Flowers was once one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. He was a top-7 cornerback in the NFL on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2009-2012, maxing out at #2 in 2010.

However, he struggled mightily in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 87^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible, including 96^th in pure coverage grade. Ironically, he somehow made the first Pro-Bowl of his career in 2013. If they keep him, he could have a bounce back year, but he might just be a horrible scheme fit under Don Sutton, who took over as defensive coordinator last season and generally did a great job. Flowers could be a bargain signing in the right scheme if he’s let go.

Sean Smith will slot in as the other starter. He had a strong season in 2010, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked cornerback, but he had a horrible season in 2011, grading out 105^th out of 109 eligible. Over the past two seasons, he’s settled in as an average starting cornerback, which is what he really is. Marcus Cooper is currently penciled in as the 3^rd cornerback. Cooper, a 7^th round rookie, got off to a great start to his career, but got exposed down the stretch, including a 3 week span in which he allowed 454 receiving yards. He ended up finishing the season grading out slightly below average. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. He could be pushed by 3^rd round rookie Phillip Gaines. Gaines would also have a big role if they were to move on from Flowers. And, as I mentioned, one of their cornerbacks could play safety part-time. The secondary is the weakest part of an overall strong defense.

Grade: B

Overall

Everything suggests the Chiefs will decline this season. Teams that have big win improvements tend to decline by about half the win improvement total from the previous season. The Chiefs won 2 games in 2012 and 11 games in 2013, a 9 game win improvement. Obviously the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid had something to do with that, but the rest of the team is pretty much the same. History suggests they’ll decline by about 4 or 5 wins, which would put them right around the win total they had in 2011, when they went 7-9. That seems about right.

That’s not the only thing I’m basing my decline theory on though. The Chiefs were not as good as their record suggested last season. They played the league’s easiest schedule in terms of DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account the number of teams they faced who were starting backup quarterbacks. Now they trade out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. They also suffered an unsustainably low amount of injuries, with the fewest adjusted games lost in the NFL last season. Yes, they did lose Justin Houston for 5 ½ games which hurt, but their other key players, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Alex Smith, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Devito missed a combined 1 game between them last season, excluding the finale, in which the Chiefs rested their starters. That much injury luck is unlikely to happen again.

The Chiefs were also overly reliant on winning the turnover margin, with an AFC best +18 turnover margin. Winning the turnover margin consistently is hard to do, unless you have a top quarterback, and even then it’s hard. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. These things are unpredictable. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to have success the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Chiefs are unlikely to recover 58.70% of fumbles again next season, 4^th best in the NFL. The tougher schedule and the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries will also play a role in this.

In addition to the Chiefs not being as good as their record last season, they also have less talent than last season, because of all of their off-season losses. They lost their 3 most talented offensive linemen, who combined for 26 starts last season. They also lost valuable depth at wide receiver, safety, and middle linebacker. They’re unlikely to get much out of their rookie class this season, as their first round pick was used with 2015 in mind and they didn’t have a 2^nd round pick. In terms of pure talent level, I have them closer to the bottom of the league than the top. Every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Chiefs are a prime candidate to do so if enough things go wrong. I’ll have an official prediction at the end of all the previews.

Season Prediction: 5-11 3rd in AFC West

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San Diego Chargers 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 5, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

After posting QB ratings of 100+ for 3 straight seasons from 2008-2010, Rivers saw his QB rating drop into the 80s in both 2011 and 2012. There were rumors of injuries and age, going into his age 32 season, was also seen as a factor. Aging, with just 2 years left on his deal, there was talk that the Chargers could draft a quarterback of the future behind Rivers. He wasn’t supposed to improve going into 2013. Instead, Rivers found the fountain of youth in 2013, completing 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 105.5, tying his career high.

He led the Chargers to the playoffs with a record of 9-7, pulling an upset in Cincinnati in the first round, and came within a touchdown of knocking off the Broncos in Denver in the next round, which would have been the second time the Chargers won in Denver last season. The Chargers were able to do this despite a defense that ranked 28^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.36% rate, because Rivers led an offense that was 2^nd in the NFL moving the chains at a 78.26% rate. Only Denver (81.09%) was better and the Chargers were over a percent better than third place New Orleans (76.98%).

How was Rivers able to turn it around? Well, for one, a new coaching staff led by offensive minded Head Coach Mike McCoy and talented offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt replaced the old Norv Turner led staff. McCoy and Whisenhunt built an offense more suited to Rivers’ strengths and the benefits were obvious. Rivers also had more talent around him. In the pre-season last year, I did a list of the top-200 players in the NFL. The Chargers had just one, safety Eric Weddle, the fewest in the NFL. They didn’t have a single one on the offensive side of the ball. Former GM AJ Smith screwed up the Chargers’ last few drafts horribly and didn’t do much to remedy the situation in free agency.

New GM Tom Telesco did a great job in his first off-season with the team, despite not much to work with. Drafting DJ Fluker in the first round helped, but the real steals were getting Keenan Allen in the 3rd round getting and King Dunlap and Danny Woodhead on cheap contracts in free agency. The Chargers also got vintage years from aging veterans Antonio Gates and Nick Hardwick and a breakout year from former first round pick Ryan Mathews. The defense was still a mess, as I mentioned earlier, but the offense was fantastic last season. Rivers did a fantastic job with a solid, but unspectacular offensive supporting cast and was, in my mind, the non-Peyton Manning MVP of last season.

Rivers and the Chargers’ offense might not be as good this season and fall back to earth a little bit. Rivers is going into his age 33 season coming off of a career year. Ken Whisenhunt is now the head coach in Tennessee. However, the offense will be the strength of the team. If they make the playoffs again, it’ll be on the strength of their offense. They will probably have to play noticeably better defensively to make the playoffs again.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned Keenan Allen earlier. Out of anyone outside of Philip Rivers, he was their most valuable player last season. Allen was seen as a likely first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft going into the 2012 season, after catching 98 passes for 1343 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2011, but a down 2012 season (61/737/6) caused by knee problems plus a 4.77 40 time dropped him to the 3rd round.

The Chargers wisely picked him up and even though he didn’t play at all week 1 and didn’t move into the starting lineup until week 4, he still caught 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie. Rookie wide receivers aren’t supposed to get it this quickly. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Allen blew those numbers out of the water and he was a 3rd round pick. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and didn’t come close to what Keenan Allen did this year as rookies (58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively). Allen continued this strong play into the post-season, where he caught 8 passes for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games.

Allen did all of this despite “only” running 510 pass snaps and seeing the bulk of the defense’s attention as a #1 wide receiver as a rookie. He averaged 2.06 yards per route run, which was 15th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, between Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant. And it wasn’t like the Chargers were forcing him the ball. Allen’s 101 targets were 31st in the NFL (he caught 70.3% of them) and Philip Rivers had a 118.1 QB rating throwing to Allen, which was 7th best in the NFL in terms of wide receiver QB rating when thrown to. That’s a big part of the reason why Rivers was able to post a 105.5 QB rating in general and why the Chargers’ offense was so good last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked wide receiver overall and 8^th ranked wide receiver in pass catching grade.

Allen doesn’t have a ton of long-term upside because of his relatively limited athleticism. Billed as a pro ready wide receiver, Allen isn’t a phenomenal athlete and I see him more as an Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston type long-term (non-first round pick wide receivers who had 1000+ yard rookie seasons) rather than an AJ Green type (first round pick wide receiver who had a 1000+ yard rookie season). Colston and Boldin are both big bodied receivers who never really improved significantly over their strong rookie years, though both still have had fantastic careers. However, Allen should be even more productive this season simply by virtue of the fact that he’ll play more this season. An extra 50 routes run should be another 100 yards. I could see him in the 1100-1200 yard range this season, even if he doesn’t improve much in terms of his pure abilities.

Outside of Allen, they don’t have a ton of talent in the receiving corps though. Antonio Gates turned in a vintage season last year, thanks to the new coaching staff, Rivers’ improved play, more talent around him, and suddenly solid health injury wise. Gates caught 77 passes for 872 yards and 4 touchdowns, his highest receiving total since 2009 and played all 16 games, something else he hadn’t done since 2009. He averaged 1.59 yards per route run (on 549 routes run), 13^th among tight ends and he was Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked tight end in pass catching grade, though he was horrible as a blocker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst in that regard.

He could have another solid season, but now he heads into his age 34 season. His 2012 season in which he caught 49 passes for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns is still fairly recent and relevant. He also missed 10 games from 2010-2012. If he starts to show his age more, it’ll probably be more snaps for Ladarius Green, a 2012 4^th round pick and Gates’ heir apparent. Green only ran 141 routes last season, but impressed, catching 17 passes for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, an average of 2.67 yards per route run.

If he had played enough snaps to qualify, he would have been Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked tight end last season, despite his limited playing time (370 snaps). He averaged an absurd 22.1 yards per catch (including 9.3 yards after catch per catch) and established himself as a dangerous weapon in the seam. His experience is still limited (409 career snaps) and the 6-6 240 pounder isn’t much of an inline blocker, but the future still seems bright for him, especially if Gates starts struggling and Green starts getting more playing time as a result. John Phillips, meanwhile, is their 3^rd tight end their blocking specialist, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL suffered in December. When healthy, he’s alright at what he does.

Opposite Keenan Allen at wide receiver, things aren’t great. Vincent Brown was the starter last season and will probably continue to serve in that role this season. The 2011 3^rd round pick was a popular breakout candidate going into 2012, after flashing as a rookie and in Training Camp, but broke his ankle in the pre-season and missed the entire season. He was healthy last season, but, in his 3^rd year in the league, didn’t prove to be anything more than a marginal starter at best. He caught 41 passes for 472 yards and a touchdown on 518 routes run, 0.91 yards per route run, 88^th out of 94 eligible. Much of that had to do with him just not being targeted a ton and he did catch 63.1% of his targets and grade out about average on Pro Football Focus, but he’s not a real asset in the passing game.

Eddie Royal will continue being the slot specialist. He ran 437 routes last season and 85.8% of them were on the slot, the 5^th highest percentage in the NFL. His 8 touchdowns were impressive, but it’s ultimately unsustainable for a 5-10 slot specialist to continue averaging 8 touchdowns per 47 catches (10 touchdowns on his other 229 career touchdowns). He took those 47 catches for 631 yards, 1.43 yards per route run, which is pretty middle of the pack, though he did grade out above average on Pro Football Focus, catching 71.2% of his targets. Royal had a strong rookie year in Denver in 2008, catching 91 passes for 980 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he managed just 138 catches over the next 4 seasons combined before finally finding a fit last year in Mike McCoy’s offense. He’ll continue being solid in that role, but he’s a specialized player.

Malcom Floyd is the wild card in the receiving mix if he can come back from a serious neck injury. That’s up for debate though and it’s looking like 50/50 that he even plays next season, in what would be his age 33 season. Even when he was younger and healthier, Floyd was a marginal receiver, never going above 856 yards receiving, even in an explosive San Diego offense. He’s also only played in 90 games over 10 seasons in his career. He’s unlikely to contribute much this season. Overall, the Chargers’ receiving corps is only solid. Keenan Allen is one of the top receivers in the NFL and maybe Antonio Gates has another good year left in him or Ladarius Green can break out, but other than that there’s not much to be excited about. Philip Rivers still has the ability to get the most out of them though.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

I mentioned King Dunlap earlier as one of the steals of the off-season for new Chargers GM Tom Telesco. Dunlap took a lot of heat in Philadelphia in 2012, when the 2008 7^th round pick and career backup took over for an injured Jason Peters at left tackle. Dunlap was blamed for a lot of the Eagles’ problems on the offensive line and on the team in general. In reality, he actually played pretty well, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus, including 21^st in pass blocking. Though he was a weak run blocker, he only allowed 5 sacks, 4 hits, and 18 hurries on 838 snaps, despite Michael Vick’s tendency to hold the ball too long.

The Chargers were able to get him on a 2-year, 3.95 million dollar deal and he proved to be more than worth it after he won the starting job in Training Camp. Despite missing 5 games with injury, Dunlap graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked offensive tackle, allowing 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 13 hurries. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps and graded out higher. He was a huge part of why the Chargers were able to turn around what was the #31 pass blocking offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency in 2012. They still weren’t great (24^th), but it was enough of an improvement to help Rivers look like his old self again. Dunlap might not be quite as good in 2014, but he could also be even better if he’s able to stay healthy and on the field for more games.

DJ Fluker was another big addition upfront. The 11^th pick in the draft, Fluker graded out about average on Pro Football Focus, which was better than anything they’ve had at the position in a while. He was a better run blocker than pass protector, but he held his own in pass protection. Going into his age 2^nd year in the NFL, only his age 23 season, the massive 6-5 319 pound bruiser could easily be better and is an obvious breakout candidate. He started last season strong, but struggled when forced to move to left tackle when Dunlap was hurt. He’s much better on the right side, his collegiate position.

The other big “improvement” on the offensive line for the Chargers from 2012 to 2013 was at center. There wasn’t a personnel change as Nick Hardwick remained the starting center, but the aging veteran had a vintage season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked center. He has a history of being a solid center, grading out 17^th in 2010 and 14^th in 2011, but he graded out 31^st out of 36 eligible in 2012. It’s possible 2012 was just an aberration and centers certainly can have longer careers than most positions, but it is hard to trust he’ll definitely have another solid season, now going into his age 33 season.

The Chargers’ biggest weakness upfront is at guard. Left guard isn’t quite as big of a problem. Chad Rinehart graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus last season. He could be better in 2014. After all, he was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked guard in 2011. That being said, that was his only other season as a full-time starter as he’s struggled with injury problems throughout his career. He played in 15 games in 2011, but he’s never played all 16 games. Last season, he played 11 games. He’s still probably locked in as a starter.

At right guard, Jeromey Clary might not be locked in. A below average right tackle earlier in his career, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 73^rd ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2011, the Chargers moved the aging Clary to right guard in hopes of making life easier for him inside and turning him into a solid starter. That didn’t work out as Clary graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 72^nd ranked guard out of 81 eligible, despite making just 11 starts at the position (he made 4 starts at right tackle, where he wasn’t much better). Now going into his age 31 season, he could lose his starting job. The Chargers can save 4.55 million in cash and cap space if they cut him going into his contract year.

The issue is they don’t really have anyone to replace him. Johnnie Troutman is their reserve guard and 6^th offensive lineman. He didn’t play a snap as a rookie in 2012 thanks to injury, after getting drafted in the 5^th round. However, he played quite a bit last season, seeing 648 snaps and making 9 starts (when Clary moved to right tackle and when Rinehart was hurt). He struggled mightily though, grading out as Pro Football Focus 59^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible despite the somewhat limited playing time. He’d be cheaper than Clary, but he might not be an upgrade. Another option is 3^rd round rookie Chris Watt, but it’s hard to trust a 3^rd round rookie. It’s still an improved offensive line from 2012, but they have issues.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Ryan Mathews will continue being the lead back. Mathews was the 12^th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft after the Chargers traded up for him. He had a disappointing first 3 years in the league, struggling to stay on the field (missing 10 games in 3 seasons) and totaling 564 carries from 2010-2012. However, he finally put it all together in 2013, rushing for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries (4.40 yards per carry) and playing all 16 games. He didn’t contribute much in the passing game (26 catches), but he’s shown pass catching ability in the past (50 catches in 2011). He graded out slightly above average on Pro Football Focus. Mathews could have another solid season in 2014, but he could just as easily get hurt.

The Chargers did sign insurance for Mathews in the form of Donald Brown. It was an odd signing as Brown was one of the market’s top running backs and got one of the highest annual salaries on the open market this off-season (3 years, 10.5 million, 4 million guaranteed), but the Chargers didn’t have a real need at running back and didn’t have a ton of cap space to work with. Still, he was reasonably paid and will provide insurance as a backup. He’s expected to get about 5-10 touches per game, at least as long as Mathews is healthy.

Donald Brown has never had more than 150 touches in a season since being drafted in the 1st round in 2009. He averages 4.3 yards per carry for his career and he’s a liability on passing downs as he doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher or pass protector. He had a strong contract year, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, catching 27 passes for 214 yards and scoring a total of 7 times. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked running back and ranked 1st in elusive rating. That being said, that was on only 102 carries and 379 total snaps and, given his history, it’s a major leap to suggest he could be a consistently successful lead back if needed. He’s probably best off in this backup role.

Neither Brown nor Mathews showed much as a pass catcher last season, but that’s fine because the Chargers have Danny Woodhead as a pass catching specialist. He caught 76 passes last season on 302 routes run for 609 receiving yards, an average of 2.02 yards per route run, 4^th among eligible running backs. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked running back in terms of pass catching grade. Only 7 targets thrown to him were incomplete.

He was a big part of the reason why the Chargers were able to turn it around and have a strong offensive year last year. He was Darren Sproles 2.0 for the Chargers, a big part of their short, quick throw offense, something they and Philip Rivers had been missing badly since Sproles left. He’s not much of a rusher though. Woodhead had 106 carries last season, a career high, but only rushed for 4.05 yards per carry. Brown will eat into his carries, which is good, as it’ll allow him to focus more on pass catching.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

I mentioned how bad the defense was last season. They have a chance to be just as bad this season. Eric Weddle was their only top-200 player on defense going into last season and, while they’ll have some guys break into the top-200 on offense, Weddle will remain their only highly ranked defensive player and by a good margin. The Chargers didn’t have much cap room to work with this off-season and they used most of it on Donald Brown, so they were unable to add to the defense in free agency. They’ll need big performances from rookies Jason Verrett and Jeremiah Attachou, who were drafted in the first and second round respectively, as well as a few bounce back years from some guys.

Let’s start with some of the good defensively. Corey Liuget is one of their better defensive players and was one of just a few key role players on defense to grade out about average or above average on Pro Football Focus last year. The exciting part of this for Chargers fans is that last year could have easily been a down year and an anomaly as he was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012. The 2011 1^st round pick did struggle as a rookie, so 2012 still is the outlier when you look at his still brief career, but there’s a solid chance he bounces back and has an above average year. Part of the culprit for his down year last year might have been that he played the entire season through a torn labrum in his shoulder. The Chargers exercised his 5^th year option, as he goes into his 4^th year in the league, and a big season could set him up for a solid extension.

Opposite him, things weren’t as good. Kendall Reyes, a 2012 2^nd round pick, was solid as a rookie, grading out slightly above average, but he struggled mightily in his sophomore year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 defensive end. He could be better this season, but it’s hard to trust him. Another issue at 3-4 defensive end is the Chargers lack depth. Cam Thomas, their starting nose tackle, is gone, meaning Sean Lissemore, previously a reserve 3-4 defensive end, will move to nose tackle. That will lead to a bigger role for Lawrence Guy, an unproven 2011 7^th round pick who did impress on 128 snaps last season. After him on the depth chart is Damik Scafe, a 2011 undrafted free agent who has played 14 career snaps.

Lissemore should do a fine job at nose tackle though and could even be an upgrade over Cam Thomas, an average starting nose tackle who left for Pittsburgh this off-season. Lissemore is undersized for a nose tackle at 6-3 298, but he has a solid history as a situational run stopper, excelling as a run stopper on 282 total snaps in 2011 and playing well as a run stopper on 216 total snaps in 2013, though the 2010 7^th round pick did have a down year in 2012 on 329 snaps. Still, he seems suited to be a starting two-down part-time base player in San Diego’s defense. If he isn’t, the Chargers would likely have to turn to 5^th round rookie Ryan Carrethers. Carrethers, unfortunately, is only a pure nose tackle at 6-1 337 and couldn’t really provide depth at any other defensive line position.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At outside linebacker, the Chargers are banking on two outside linebackers coming off of serious injuries. One of them is Melvin Ingram, a 2012 1^st round pick who tore his ACL last May. Ingram was decent as a rookie in 2012 on 475 snaps, but was unable to improve in his 2^nd season in the league because of the injury. Ingram eventually returned for the final 4 games of the regular season (playing 122 combined snaps) and was close to a full-time player by the two playoff games, but he struggled and clearly wasn’t 100%. He’ll be 16 months removed from the injury by week 1, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have a breakout year this year. He’s still unproven and still might not be 100%.

Opposite him will be Dwight Freeney, who is coming off of a season ending quad injury suffered in week 4 of last season, the first season of a two-year deal. Freeney was once a dominant edge rusher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive end as recently as 2010. However, he fell to 33^rd in 2011 and he was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012 out of 34 eligible. Last season, Freeney had a dominant week 1 against Houston, but was just alright in the other 3 weeks before going down. He could have another solid season left in the tank, but he’s going into his age 34 season coming off of a serious injury after three years of significant decline. If he or Melvin Ingram struggle, Jeremiah Attachou, their 2^nd round pick, could have a significant role as a rookie. They’d probably prefer him to not have to play a serious role until 2015, after the aging Freeney’s impending free agency.

The Chargers have another aging outside linebacker, Jarret Johnson, a two-down run stopping linebacker who is going into his age 33 season. He’s been playing that role for a while, starting in Baltimore and now in San Diego. He played 446 snaps last season and was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. It’s not a particularly important role, but he could easily be solid in it once again. At the very least, having Freeney and Ingram back healthy and adding Attachou to the mix will keep them from having to use the likes of Reggie Walker, Thomas Keiser, Larry English, and Tourek Williams in serious roles again.

At middle linebacker, they are banking on another player with injury issues, Donald Butler. Butler missed 3 games last season and has missed 23 games in 4 seasons since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2010. He also struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. That’s not the norm for him. He was better in 2011 and 2012, when he graded out 15th and 16th respectively, but I didn’t think he was worth much more than a one-year prove it deal this off-season. Instead, they gave him 51.8 million over 7 seasons. The Chargers can get out of the deal easily after 11.9 million over 1 year and 21 million over 3 years, but those are also both overpays. Provided he’s healthy, he should be better this season, but this was a bad deal.

Manti Te’o will continue to start next to him inside in the Chargers’ 3-4 defense. A 2013 2^nd round pick, Te’o also missed time as a rookie, missing 3 games and struggling through 538 snaps in 13 games. He could be better in 2014, but there are no guarantees. Overall, the Chargers should be healthier in their linebacking corps this season (3^rd most adjusted games lost by linebackers last season), which is good because their lack of depth was exposed last season, but they still don’t have a ton of talent in the unit.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Chargers had probably the league’s worst cornerbacks last season, a huge part of the reason why their defense was so awful last season. Shareece Wright, Richard Marshall, Derek Cox, and Johnny Patrick were their top-4 cornerbacks last season. They ranked 102th, 101st, 104th, and 94th respectively out of 110 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Cox and Patrick were let go, while the Chargers retained Shareece Wright, a 2011 3^rd round pick, for the contract year of his rookie deal and re-signed Marshall as a free agent. To help solve this problem, the Chargers used their first round pick of Jason Verrett, a cornerback out of TCU.

Verrett will probably immediately be their top cornerback, which tells you how dire their situation at the position is. Verrett could have been the top cornerback off the board if he was 5-11 instead of 5-9 and if he wasn’t coming off of shoulder surgery. He’s best on the slot, but will also have to match up against opponent’s top receivers on the outside. That’s going to be a big task for a rookie who will be behind the 8-ball in terms of practice this off-season as he rehabs that injury. Cornerbacks tend to take a year to get adjusted to the NFL anyway.

After him on the depth chart, everything is up in the air. Shareece Wright is currently penciled in as the other starter. He led Charger cornerbacks in snaps played last season (802 snaps) but, as I mentioned, he was horrible, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 102^nd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. Last season was his first year as a starter and he played a combined 124 snaps in 2011 and 2012.

Richard Marshall is another veteran holdover from last season, who graded out 101^st out of 110 eligible cornerbacks last season. He’s had some better years, like in 2011 when he graded out about average, but he’s going into his age 30 season, missed 12 games in 2012, and was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst cornerback in 2010. Steve Williams, a 2013 5^th round pick, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL, is also in the mix, but only out of necessity. The fact that he could see significant snaps in 2014 is just a testament to their lack of talent at the cornerback position. He’s unlikely to play well if he does see the field.

Fortunately, things are better at safety for the Chargers. It’s probably the strength of their defense. Marcus Gilchrist played well last season in his first season after converting from cornerback. The 2011 2^nd round pick graded out significantly below average in each of his first two seasons in the league at cornerback in 2011 and 2012, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked safety last year. We’ll see if he can keep it up in 2014 in his 2^nd year starting at the position. It would be in his best interest, obviously, as he’ll be in a contract year.

Opposite him will be Eric Weddle, who was one of the top players in the NFL going into last season and remains as one of the top players in the NFL. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked safety last season, which was his worst season since 2009, when he graded out 8^th. He was 1^st in 2012 and 3^rd in both 2011 and 2010. He’s easily the only safety in the NFL to grade out top-8 in each of the last 5 seasons and only one other safety (Jairus Byrd) has even done that in each of the last 3 seasons. Weddle is also the only safety to grade out in the top-7 in each of the last 3 seasons.

Even in 2009, his “down” year, it was mostly because he missed 3 games with injury. He hasn’t missed a game since. He doesn’t get the recognition, but he’s one of the top safeties in the NFL. Unlike guys like Earl Thomas (12.8% snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage last season), Devin McCourty (9.1%), and Jairus Byrd (12.1%), who are primarily deep safeties, and guys like Kam Chancellor (69.2%), TJ Ward (65.7%), and Eric Berry (69.7%), who are primarily box safeties, Weddle is dominant in all facets of the game and can line up anywhere in the defensive backfield (46.3% of snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage last season). That’s incredibly impressive. He’s the saving grace on an otherwise weak defense.

Grade: C

Conclusion

I see the Chargers taking a step back on offense this season. Their supporting cast around Rivers offensively is pretty average and Rivers is unlikely to repeat the career year he had last year, especially without Ken Whisenhunt calling plays, in his age 33 season. It’s very hard for any quarterback to get this kind of supporting cast to be among the league’s elite offenses, but that’s what he was able to do last year.

Defensively, however, they should be a little bit better. They didn’t really add much talent to the unit this off-season and they still have a lot of problems, but they should have better injury luck after their lack of depth was badly exposed last season. The Chargers were 5th worst in adjusted games lost last season, 8th worst in adjusted games lost on defense, and 3rd worst in adjusted games lost at linebacker, which I got into detail about earlier.

Another area they were unlucky in was fumble recovery as they were 30th, recovering 39.39% of fumbles. Their -4 turnover margin might not improve drastically if Rivers throws a few more interceptions, but they should recover more fumbles and force more turnovers defensively. The Chargers should be right in the playoff mix right again. I’ll have official win projections at the end of all my season previews, but one thing that could keep them out is their schedule. They had the 26th hardest schedule last year in terms of DVOA. Now they swap out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. That could lead to an extra loss and an extra loss would have kept them out of the playoffs last season.

Season Prediction: 8-8 2nd in AFC West

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