Month: March 2015

Philadelphia Eagles re-sign OLB Brandon Graham

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

The Eagles have whiffed on a few free agents this off-season, but they finally found someone to take some of their massive amount of cap space, re-signing Brandon Graham. It’s a good move. Graham is seen as not being able to play in a 3-4, but, while he’s probably better in a 4-3, he’s shown over the past 2 seasons that he can play in both schemes. After struggling with injuries in the first two seasons of his career, Graham, a 2010 1st round pick, had somewhat of a breakout year in 2012. He didn’t get a ton of playing time (435 snaps), which is why it’s hard to call it a true breakout year, but he still graded out 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends that season, despite the limited playing time.

Moving to a 3-4 in 2013, he only saw 331 snaps, but he still graded out 15th at his position, making it two straight years where no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out better at his position. In 2014, he was still the 3rd outside linebacker, but he played ahead of 1st round pick Marcus Smith all year, set a career high in snaps played with 524 snaps and graded out 3rd among 3-4 outside linebackers. For the third straight year, no one graded out better at his position on fewer snaps.

It was widely assumed that Graham would sign elsewhere this off-season, in hopes of getting more playing time and playing in a 4-3, but, as I mentioned, he fits a 3-4 scheme fine and he should still get a lot of playing time in Philadelphia next season with Trent Cole gone. 2014 1st round pick Marcus Smith should see more snaps in 2015, but Graham should still work ahead of him as a starter opposite Connor Barwin and set a new career in snaps played. As a 600-700 snap guy, Graham has the potential to break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game. It’s somewhat risky considering he’s never played a significant amount of snaps, but he’s handled everything he’s been given in his career very well and the Eagles aren’t risking a ton of money here, giving him 26 million over 4 years with 14 million guaranteed. I liked the Pernell McPhee deal. This is less money for arguably a better player.

Grade: A

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Chicago Bears sign OLB Pernell McPhee

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

McPhee was a risky signing this off-season. On one hand, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 despite playing just 540 snaps. He was 2nd in the NFL behind only JJ Watt with 21 quarterback hits. He’s not a one year wonder as that type of player either as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle as a 5th round rookie in 2011 on just 348 snaps and has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. He’s supremely versatile with experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 4-3 defensive end, a 3-4 defensive end, and a 4-3 defensive tackle. He’s also only going into his age 27 season and could break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game if he’s given a bigger role.

On the other hand, he’s still never played more than 540 snaps in a season so he’s still unproven as a full-time starter and he’s still unproven outside of Baltimore, where they have such great supporting talent defensively. However, at 8 million annually (5-year, 40 million) with just 16 million of that guaranteed, he’s well worth the risk. McPhee will work in rotation with Jared Allen and Willie Young in the Bears’ new 3-4 defense. Young and Allen both played well last season, but neither of them has ever played in a 3-4, as McPhee has for most of his career. He should have a significantly bigger role than he did in Baltimore, somewhere around 700-800 snaps annually, and could easily prove to be worth 11-12 million dollars per year.

Grade: A

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Baltimore Ravens trade DT Haloti Ngata to Detroit Lions

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Lions, Ravens, Uncategorized

Trade for Baltimore: I mentioned Haloti Ngata’s name in my Ravens’ off-season preview as someone who could be a cap casualty. This was something that had been mentioned by multiple sources and it was understandable as the cap strapped Ravens could free up 8.5 million in cash and cap space by releasing Ngata ahead of his age 31 season. However, I also said that a better solution would be to give him an extension that immediately lowers his contract number and keeps him under contract for 2016 and beyond, as they did with Terrell Suggs last off-season, as Ngata still has good football left in him. The Ravens went with a different approach, letting him go and saving the cap space, but doing so by trade, so at least they got a 4th and 5th round pick out of him. I don’t think that was the right move, but it’s not a horrible decision.

Grade: B-

Trade for Detroit: Detroit I think comes out the winners here. Ngata isn’t as good or as young as Ndamukong Suh, but paying him 8.5 million in 2015 seems better than paying Suh the 19 million annually that he received from Miami. Ngata graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007. He’s played in both 3-man and 4-man fronts in his career and will fit in well in Detroit. His age is a concern, as he goes into his age 31 season, but they won’t owe him anything beyond 2015 and he’s not completely over the hill yet. Unlike the Ravens, the Lions don’t have big cap problems and don’t need to extend him long-term to drive down his cap number if they don’t want to. The price they paid for him, outside of a reasonable salary, was two relatively meaningless picks.

Grade: B+

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2015 NFL Free Agency Predictions

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Uncategorized

Quarterbacks

Matt Moore 1-year, 3 million (1 million guaranteed) with Minnesota

Brian Hoyer 2-year, 10 million (5 million guaranteed) with Houston

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray 5-year, 35 million (20 million guaranteed) with Jacksonville

Justin Forsett 2-year, 9 million (5 million guaranteed) with Atlanta

Ryan Mathews 1-year, 4 million (2 million guaranteed) with Arizona

CJ Spiller 2-year, 10 million (5 million guaranteed) with Philadelphia

Frank Gore 3-year, 15 million (8 million guaranteed) with Indianapolis

Ahmad Bradshaw 1-year, 2 million (1 million guaranteed) with San Francisco

Shane Vereen 3-year, 9 million (3.5 million guaranteed) with NY Giants

Stevan Ridley 1-year, 1.5 million (1 million guaranteed) with Dallas

Roy Helu 3-year, 8.5 million (3 million guaranteed) with New England

Reggie Bush 1-year, 1.5 million (750K guaranteed) with Baltimore

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin 5-year, 53 million (25 million guaranteed) with Kansas City

Torrey Smith 5-year, 41 million (20 million guaranteed) with San Francisco

Andre Johnson 2-year, 12 million (6 million guaranteed) with Baltimore

Michael Crabtree 5-year, 30 million (14 million guaranteed) with Houston

Percy Harvin 3-year, 15 million (5 million guaranteed) with San Diego

Dwayne Bowe 2-year, 12 million (6 million guaranteed) with Chicago

Steve Johnson 1-year, 4 million (2 million guaranteed) with Carolina

Eddie Royal 3-year, 15 million (6 million guaranteed) with Indianapolis

Cecil Shorts 2-year, 8 million (4 million guaranteed) with Miami

Kenny Britt 1-year, 3 million (1 million guaranteed) with St. Louis

Tight Ends

Julius Thomas 5-year, 45 million (22 million guaranteed) with Jacksonville

Charles Clay 5-year, 37 million (18 million guaranteed) with Miami

Jordan Cameron 3-year, 18 million (7 million guaranteed) with Seattle

Lance Kendricks 3-year, 12 million (4 million guaranteed) with Cleveland

James Casey 1-year, 2 million (1 million guaranteed) with Arizona

Owen Daniels 1-year, 2 million (1 million guaranteed) with Denver

Jermaine Gresham 4-year, 20 million (11 million guaranteed) with Oakland

Offensive Tackles

Bryan Bulaga 5-year, 39 million (18 million guaranteed) with Tennessee

Jake Long Retires

Joe Barksdale 5-year, 35 million (16 million guaranteed) with NY Giants

Jeremy Pernell 5-year, 32 million (13 million guaranteed) with Jacksonville

Guards

Mike Iupati 5-year, 42 million (20 million guaranteed) with Arizona

Orlando Franklin 5-year, 36.5 million (20 million guaranteed) with San Diego

Clint Boling 5-year, 32 million (14 million guaranteed) with Cincinnati

Rob Sims 4-year, 24 million (13 million guaranteed) with Minnesota

Justin Blalock 4-year, 22 million (11 million guaranteed) with St. Louis

James Carpenter 4-year, 17 million (6 million guaranteed) with NY Jets

Centers

Rodney Hudson 5-year 44.5 million (20 million guaranteed) with Oakland

Chris Myers 2-year, 8 million (4 million guaranteed) with Denver

Stefen Wisniewski 4-year, 20 million (10 million guaranteed) with St. Louis

Brian De La Puente 3-year, 9 million (4 million guaranteed) with New Orleans

Will Montgomery 1-year 2 million (1 million guaranteed) with San Diego

Interior Defensive Linemen

Ndamukong Suh 6-year, 114 million (60 million guaranteed) with Miami

Terrance Knighton 5-year, 44 million (20 million guaranteed) with Oakland

Jared Odrick 5-year, 36 million (16 million guaranteed) with Jacksonville

Nick Fairley 4-year, 25 million (14 million guaranteed) with Detroit

Stephen Paea 4-year, 30 million (16 million guaranteed) with Washington

Dan Williams 4-year, 20 million (10 million guaranteed) with Denver

Vince Wilfork 3-year, 17 million (7 million guaranteed) with Houston

Henry Melton 3-year, 15 million (6 million guaranteed) with Dallas

Corey Peters 3-year, 10.5 million (4 million guaranteed) with Arizona

Kendall Langford 4-year, 18 million (6 million guaranteed) with Indianapolis

Cory Redding 1-year, 3 million (2 million guaranteed) with Baltimore

CJ Mosley 2-year, 7 million (4 million guaranteed) with Detroit

Edge Players

Pernell McPhee 5-year, 40 million (16 million guaranteed) with Chicago

Greg Hardy 1-year, 8 million (6 million guaranteed) with Cincinnati

Jason Worilds 5-year, 45 million (21 million guaranteed) with Tennessee

Derrick Morgan 4-year, 28 million (15 million guaranteed) with NY Giants

Brian Orakpo 2-year, 12 million (6 million guaranteed) with Jacksonville

Jabaal Sheard 4-year, 31 million (17 million guaranteed) with Tampa Bay

Trent Cole 3-year, 15 million (6 million guaranteed) with Cleveland

Akeem Ayers 3-year, 12 million (4 million guaranteed) with New England

Brooks Reed 2-year, 8 million (4 million guaranteed) with Atlanta

Dwight Freeney 1-year, 3 million (2 million guaranteed) with Seattle

John Abraham retires

James Harrison 1-year, 2 million (1 million guaranteed) with Pittsburgh

Non-rush linebackers

Rolando McClain 5-year, 30 million (7 million guaranteed) with Dallas

Brandon Spikes 3-year, 14 million (5 million guaranteed) with Minnesota

Malcolm Smith 3-year, 12 million (5 million guaranteed) with Atlanta

Lance Briggs 1-year, 3 million (2 million guaranteed) with Tampa Bay

Sean Weatherspoon 1-year, 4 million (2 million guaranteed) with Arizona

Cornerbacks

Darrelle Revis 4-year, 60 million (35 million guaranteed) with New England

Byron Maxwell 6-year, 63 million (25 million guaranteed) with Philadelphia

Tramon Williams 3-year, 17 million (7 million guaranteed) with Philadelphia

Chris Culliver 5-year, 25 million (11 million guaranteed) with Miami

Antonio Cromartie 4-year, 28 million (15 million guaranteed) with NY Jets

Cary Williams 4-year, 20 million (10 million guaranteed) with Seattle

Rashean Mathis 1-year, 3 million (2 million guaranteed) with Detroit

Davon House 4-year, 20 million (10 million guaranteed) with Minnesota

Patrick Robinson 4-year, 16 million (9 million guaranteed) with New Orleans

Perrish Cox 1-year, 3 million (1 million guaranteed) with San Francisco

Safeties

Rahim Moore 5-year, 26 million (11 million guaranteed) with NY Giants

Da’Norris Searcy 4-year, 25 million (13 million guaranteed) with Oakland

Dwight Lowery 4-year, 20 million (7 million guaranteed) with Atlanta

Dawan Landry 2-year, 6 million (3 million guaranteed) with NY Jets

Mike Adams 1-year, 2.5 million (1 million guaranteed) with Indianapolis

Stevie Brown 2-year, 7 million (4 million guaranteed) with NY Giants

Tyvon Branch 1-year, 3 million (1 million guaranteed) with Kansas City

Kendrick Lewis 3-year, 10 million (4 million guaranteed) with Houston

Marcus Gilchrist 4-year, 16 million (5 million guaranteed) with Washington

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Safeties

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Rahim Moore

Rahim Moore struggled as a rookie, but he had a fantastic 2012 season (the gaffe in the playoff loss to Baltimore aside), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety. He still looked like one of the league’s better young safeties going into his 3rd year in the league in 2013, but he was only a league average starting safety that year before going down for the season with a frightening, rare injury that almost cost him his leg and his life. Moore returned in 2014, but was once again only an average starter. It’s obviously great that Moore has been able to resume his life and his career, but he goes to the open market as only a league average starter. He’ll make a good amount of money in a weak safety market though.

2. Da’Norris Searcy

Searcy was a 4th round pick by the Bills in 2011 NFL Draft. He played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps), so someone will give him starter’s money to be a traditional starting safety for them.

3. Dwight Lowery

Dwight Lowery has always been a solid starting safety when healthy. The Falcons signed Lowery cheap last off-season and there was a reason he was available so cheap, even though he graded out above average in every season from 2008-2012, including 18th among safeties in 2012. Lowery missed 20 games in 2012-2013 combined and he hadn’t played all 16 games since his rookie year in 2008. Lowery proved to be a smart signing by the Falcons, as he graded out above average again and, more important, made all 16 starts. He’s worth a multi-year deal on the open market, but his injury history can’t be ignored.

4. Dawan Landry

Landry was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked safety in 2014, but I have skepticism over his ability to keep that up. For one thing, he’s going into his age 33 season. He also graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons from 2009-2013 before last season, though he did rank 4th in 2010 and he’s played in all 96 games over the last 6 seasons. He should still be a starter next season, but, like Harris, he shouldn’t be guaranteed anything beyond 2015 on his next deal.

5. Mike Adams

Mike Adams has been in the league for 11 years, since 2004, but last season was arguably the best of his career, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked safety and made the first Pro-Bowl of his career. This is the same guy whose career looked like it could have been over until the Colts signed him in June of last off-season. He’s going into his age 34 season and anyone who signs him this off-season can’t expect him to repeat the best season of his career again, but he was a solid starter in 2011, 2012, and 2013, grading out above average in 2011 and 2012 and only slightly below average in 2013. He should still be considered a starting caliber safety for 2015. There’s reportedly a lot of mutual interest between Adams and the Colts in a reunion.

6. Stevie Brown

Stevie Brown, a 2010 7th round pick, played just 151 snaps combined in 2010 and 2011, but had a breakout year in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked safety. Unfortunately for him, he tore his ACL and missed his entire contract year in 2013 and was forced to settle for a one year deal back with the Giants to rehab his value. His 2014 season was a mixed bag. He graded out about average and played all 16 games, but he made just 8 starts and played just 559 snaps as he was benched for a stretch in the middle of the season. He shouldn’t get a ton of interest on the open market, as he’s still a one year wonder.

7. Tyvon Branch

Branch had the Raiders’ top cap number for 2015 at 9.657 million. The Raiders only saved 2.986 million on the cap immediately by cutting him, but doing so got them out of salaries of 5.5 million in 2015 and 6.5 million in 2016 and 2017 and he’ll completely off of their cap by 2016. Branch was once a solid safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2011 and their 30th ranked safety in 2012, but he’s missed all but 4 games with injuries over the past two seasons combined and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player again.

8. Kendrick Lewis

Lewis was a mere 5th round pick in 2010, but he still started for 4 years with the Chiefs before coming to Houston, making 51 starts from 2010-2013. Lewis graded out above average in his first 2 seasons in the league, but below average in 2012 and 2013, the final 2 years of his rookie contract in Kansas City, which led to a depressed market for him last off-season, forcing him to settle for a cheap, one-year deal in Houston. With the Texans, he had a bounce back year, grading out above average. Now he hits free agency again with 67 career starts in 5 seasons with a solid history of success as a starter, including a solid contract year. He should get more money and years than he did last off-season, but he could still be a cheap starting option for a team that needs one.

9. Marcus Gilchrist

Marcus Gilchrist was a 2nd round pick of the Chargers’ in 2011. He struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league at cornerback, but was moved to safety in 2013 and ended up making all 16 starts and grading out 20th at his position. Gilchrist graded out below average in 2014, but he wasn’t terrible, he made all 16 starts again, and I still expect him to get starting caliber money this off-season. He won’t break anyone’s bank though.

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Cornerbacks

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Darrelle Revis

Darrelle Revis is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out 3rd in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 18th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2013, and 4th in 2014, with a torn ACL in 2012 that didn’t slow his career down in between. However, Revis was owed 20 million in 2015, including a 12.5 million dollar bonus that was scheduled to be paid out on the first day of free agency. The Patriots never really intended to pay him that when they signed him last off-season and they released him on the day before that bonus was due. They’ll try to keep him long-term as a free agent, but they’ll have competition from the Jets, Bills, Chiefs and others.

2. Byron Maxwell

The “other” member of the Legion of Boom, Maxwell broke into the starting lineup in 2013 in the middle of the 2011 6th round pick’s 3rd season in the NFL. Maxwell played 494 snaps in 2013, made 5 starts in place of a suspended Brandon Browner, and graded out 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. The Seahawks let Browner walk the following off-season and Maxwell became a full-time starter in 2015, making 13 starts (missing 3 with injury). However, he was only a league average starter when on the field, according to Pro Football Focus. Widely considered the top cornerback on the open market, Maxwell is expected to get more than 10+ million dollars annually, which would be a massive overpay. He’s still inexperienced. He hasn’t played as well as people think. And he could easily struggle outside of Seattle’s system and supporting cast.

3. Tramon Williams

Williams is going into his age 32 season so he won’t command a huge annual salary or much if any guaranteed money beyond 2015, but he should still be a solid starter next season. He’s not the player he was in 2009, when he graded out 9th, or 2010, when he graded out 8th, but he’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and made 95 of 96 starts over that time period. Something around 3 years, 17 million, with 7 million guaranteed would be appropriate for him. Seattle has been rumored to be interested in him, as they have a cornerback need and GM John Schneider was part of the team that originally brought Williams to Green Bay. A return to Green Bay is also an option.

4. Chris Culliver

Chris Culliver was just a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2011, but he’s quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. He had a significant role from the word go in 2011, playing 425 snaps and then 691 in 2012, grading out above average in both seasons, including 29th at his position in 2012. He’s graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been healthy, missing all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he bounced back in a big way from that torn ACL in 2014 in his first full season as a starter, making 14 starts and grading out 14th at his position. On top of that, that 2013 ACL tear is really the only issue he’s had with injuries, missing a combined 2 games in his other 3 seasons as a pro. The 49ers have cap problems so they’ll have to hope that the rest of the league doesn’t realize he how good he is so that they can re-sign him cheaply.

5. Antonio Cromartie

Antonio Cromartie made 63 of 64 starts from 2009-2012 with the Jets and Chargers and graded out above average in all 4 seasons, maxing out at 18th in 2012. Cromartie started all 16 games for the Jets again in 2013, but graded out 102nd out of 110 eligible and ended up being a cap casualty. He was forced to settle for a 1-year, prove it deal with the Cardinals and the common opinion is that he did prove it and deserves a big contract this off-season. That’s only half true though as, while Cromartie was dominant to start the season, he was horrible in the 2nd half of the season and ended up grading out below average overall. Going into his age 31 season, Cromartie is simply no longer capable of consistently showing top cornerback ability and shouldn’t be paid more than an average starter. A strong candidate to be overpaid this off-season, it’s no secret that Cromartie would like to go back to the Jets and reunite with Todd Bowles. Bowles is now the Head Coach of the Jets after doing a fantastic job as defensive coordinator with the Cardinals in 2013 and 2014.

6. Cary Williams

Cary Williams has made all 32 starts for the Eagles at cornerback over the last 2 seasons, but he’s graded out below average in each of them. Even though he wasn’t that bad in 2014 (49th out of 108 eligible), the Eagles might cut him anyway. His salary for 2015 is 6.5 million non-guaranteed and they can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go. There are better cornerbacks to be had for that price.

7. Rashean Mathis

Rashean Mathis looked done after 2012, as he graded out below average in 2012, missed 11 games with injury in 2011 and 2012 combined, and was going into his age 33 season. He didn’t get signed until mid-August in 2013, but he turned back the clock in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts and grading out 26th in 2013 and 12th in 2014. He’s a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season so he won’t command a large salary, but the Lions would love to bring him back as a stopgap in their secondary and he should draw interest from other cornerback needy teams as well.

8. Davon House

House, a 2011 4th round pick, has been buried on the depth chart in Green Bay over the past 4 seasons, playing just 1201 defensive snaps combined over that time period, all over the past 3 seasons. However, he’s flashed whenever he’s been on the field, grading out either above average or just slightly below average in each of the last 3 seasons. House reportedly is looking for 7 million dollars annually on the open market. I don’t expect him to get that, even on a weak cornerback market, but I do expect him to be starting somewhere next year to be compensated accordingly.

9. Patrick Robinson

Patrick Robinson has essentially been a bust as a 2010 1st round pick, but it hasn’t been for lack of talent. He’s just missed 22 games in 5 seasons and had serious trouble consistently staying healthy and on the field. His best season came in 2011, when he played 15 games (7 starts) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback, but whoever signs him shouldn’t expect that kind of play from him. In 2014, he played 624 snaps in 14 games, starting 6 of them, and grading out about average. That’s more par for the course from him. He’ll be looking at smaller multi-year deals to be someone’s #2 or #3 cornerback. Considering the Saints’ desperate need at the cornerback position and that Robinson was their best cornerback in 2014, a reunion could make sense.

10. Perrish Cox

Perrish Cox was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 thanks to those charges coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks), but injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back. Cox led the 49ers with 965 snaps played, made 14 starts, and graded out above average. Cox clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter, but the off-the-field stuff can’t be ignored. Still, he’ll come cheap for a starting cornerback this off-season so he definitely wouldn’t be a bad signing for any cornerback needy team and that includes the 49ers.

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Non-rush Linebackers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Rolando McClain

Rolando McClain has a crazy story. Drafted 8th overall in 2010 by the Raiders, McClain came into the league with a ton of potential. McClain showed that potential early in his career, grading out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL, including 14th ranked in 2010 and 11th ranked in 2012. However, he was kicked off the Raiders in the middle of his strong 2012 season because of issues with the coaching staff and then, after briefly resurfacing in Baltimore, was out of football entirely in 2013. He’s been arrested 3 times already since he’s been in the NFL. However, the Cowboys took a shot on him in 2014 and that talent was still there after all that, as he graded out 8th among middle linebackers in 2014, serving as a savior on the Dallas defense. McClain is obviously going to be a risky guy to pay on the open market, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and he’s plenty talented so someone will give him a big deal with minimal guaranteed money. Dallas would welcome him back.

2. Brandon Spikes

Spikes is only a two down middle linebacker, but he’s very good at what he does. He’s graded out 4th, 22nd, 1st, 1st, and 9th among middle linebackers against the run in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively (2010 was his rookie year after the Patriots drafted him in the 2nd round that year). However, he’s never played more than 742 snaps in a season because of his issues in coverage and he’s never ranked higher than 20th at his position in coverage. I don’t expect the Bills to bring him back because Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham had breakout years in 2014, but Spikes will get decent money somewhere because he serves a valuable role.

3. Malcolm Smith

Malcolm Smith was Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 47, one of the more anonymous Super Bowl MVP’s in NFL history. Smith played a good game, but there were more deserving candidates, as Smith didn’t even play half the snaps in that game (34 of 71). He just happened to make a few splash plays that we remember. Smith also wasn’t even a starter that season, playing just 490 snaps. However, he was still Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker that season, despite the limited action, with no one playing more snaps and grading out better. He’s still inexperienced and he struggled in 2014, but he’s overall played well when given a chance and could be starting somewhere next season.

4. Lance Briggs

Briggs is a potential future Hall of Famer and he’s spent all 12 seasons of his career with the Bears, since they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2003, making 7 Pro-Bowls, 3 All-Pros, and starting 170 games. However, he could very easily be done with the Bears as he heads into free agency. Briggs is going into his age 35 season and has missed a combined 15 games with injuries over the past 2 seasons. He could retire this off-season. If he wants to keep playing, he’s played well enough when on the field to suggest that he still has something left in the tank, as he’s still graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. He’ll probably have to settle for a 1-year deal though and have to wait a little bit into free agency.

5. Sean Weatherspoon

It’s been a steep drop off for Weatherspoon since he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2011 after being drafted in the 1st round in 2010. He’s played in just 20 of 48 games combined over the past 3 seasons, grading out below average in 2012 and 2013 and missing all of 2014 with a torn Achilles. 2011 remains the only season in his career that he’s played all 16 games and the only season in his career that he graded out above average as he missed 5 games as a rookie and graded out below average when on the field. He’s missed 33 games in 5 seasons. Now going into free agency, he’ll have to settle for a one-year prove it deal.

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Edge Rushers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Pernell McPhee

Pernell McPhee graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 despite playing just 540 snaps. He was 2nd in the NFL behind only JJ Watt with 21 quarterback hits. He’s not a one year wonder as that type of player either as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle as a 5th round rookie in 2011 on just 348 snaps and has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. Supremely versatile with experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 4-3 defensive end, a 3-4 defensive end, and a 4-3 defensive tackle, McPhee is only going into his age 27 season and could break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game in his next home if he’s given a bigger role. At the same time, he’s still never played more than 540 snaps in a season so he’s still unproven as a full-time starter and he’s still unproven outside of Baltimore, where they have such great supporting talent defensively. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 8 million dollars per year. The Ravens have good depth at 3-4 outside linebacker with Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, and Courtney Upshaw so they’re unlikely to bring McPhee back, given how little cap space they have.

2. Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy had such a bright future at this time last year, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013 and their 6th ranked in 2012. The Panthers, eager to keep him long-term, franchised tagged Hardy last off-season, guaranteeing him 13.1 million for 2015, but they would end up regretting that. Hardy was arrested for and convicted of domestic violence in the off-season. He was allowed by the NFL to play for the Panthers week 1 because he was appealing the verdict, but public pressure forced the Panthers inactivate Hardy for the final 15 games of the season, meaning the Panthers got just 1 game for that 13.1 million. Hardy is still young (going into his age 27 season), still talented, and got the charges dropped this off-season, but he could be rusty, he got the charges dropped on a technicality, he’s still facing a suspension from the NFL, and he remains an off-the-field risk long-term. The Panthers have already said they’re moving on from him. It’ll be interesting to see what his market is this off-season. If he’s smart, he’ll take a one-year deal, bet on himself, stay clean and make a boatload of money next off-season.

3. Jason Worilds

Jason Worilds was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013, but he was a bit of a one year wonder so the Steelers used the transition tag on him, rather than giving him a long-term deal. Prior to 2013, the 2010 2nd round pick played a combined 979 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league, maxing out at 501 in 2011. However, he graded out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons and he shed the one-year wonder label in 2014 in his 2nd full season as a starter, grading out 11th at his position. He heads into free agency off of back-to-back top-12 seasons as a 3-4 outside linebacker, having made 31 of 32 starts over those 2 seasons. He made 9.75 million for 1 year on the transition tag last year and figures to get paid well on the open market this off-season. The cap strapped Steelers will have a tough time keeping him.

4. Derrick Morgan

A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability will make him a hot commodity on the open market.

5. Brian Orakpo

Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and was franchised tagged as a result. However, Orakpo ended up missing 9 games with a torn pectoral in 2014, the 3rd time in his career that he’s torn his pectoral in his career. Now he hits free agency again having missed 24 of 48 games over the past 3 seasons with torn pectorals. He’s very talented when he’s on the field; in addition to his strong 2013, the 2009 1st round pick also ranked 7th at his position in 2011. However, injuries will put a big buyer beware stamp on him this off-season. The Redskins don’t seem like they’re going to bring him back, opting to move forward with Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy.

6. Jabaal Sheard

Sheard, a 2011 2nd round pick, has emerged as a solid edge rusher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10thranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and 16th ranked in 2014. He has experience playing in both a 4-3 and 3-4. He graded out below average in both of his seasons as a 4-3 defensive end, but those were also his first two seasons in the league, so he necessarily wouldn’t be a bad signing for a 4-3 team. Either way, Sheard should get a decent amount of money on the open market, in the 6-7 million dollars per year range, assuming the Browns let him. The Browns have a ton of cap space so they could easily re-sign him before free agency.

7. Trent Cole

There’s been talk of the Eagles releasing Trent Cole this off-season since Chip Kelly showed up. Cole was never seen as a great fit for the Eagles’ 3-4, but his contract didn’t let them get any sort of real cap relief by cutting or trading him in either of the last 2 off-seasons so the rumored plan has always been to cut him this off-season. Doing so would save them 10.025 million in cash and 8.425 million immediately on the cap and Cole is going into his age 33 season. Cole has been solid in 2013 and 2014 in the 3-4, grading out 7th in 2013 and 19th in 2014, but the Eagles already have Connor Barwin and Marcus Smith and might prefer to cut Cole to free up cap space to re-sign Brandon Graham.

8. Akeem Ayers

Akeem Ayers, a 2011 2nd round pick, graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league with the Titans, including 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013. However, the Titans’ incompetent new regime didn’t seem to know how to use him and he played just 10 snaps for them before being traded to the Patriots for a swap of late round picks mid-season. In New England, they had no problem figuring out how to use him and he provided much needed depth as a 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out above average on 390 snaps. There’s a reason why the Patriots were Super Bowl winners this year and the Titans went 2-14. Ayers can play both 4-3 and 3-4 outside linebacker, but he’s a better pass rusher than he is in coverage so he’s probably a better fit for a 3-4, where he’ll get more pass rush opportunities. On a strong edge rush market, Ayers could be a nice, cheap option for teams in need of pass rush help.

9. Brooks Reed

Brooks Reed, a 2011 2nd round pick, has graded out above average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, making 54 starts in the process. The only exception was 2013, when he graded out 41st out of 42 eligible players. However, Reed has graded out negatively as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons, doing his best work against the run and, to a lesser extent, in coverage. Because of that, there has been talk that he’d be better off as a 4-3 outside linebacker or moving to middle linebacker in a 3-4. He’s a decent player and he has some versatility, but he won’t break the bank for anyone.

10. Dwight Freeney

Dwight Freeney bounced back from a 2013 season where he missed 12 games with injury. In 2014, he played all 16 games, making 9 starts, playing 590 snaps, and grading out above average, as he’s done in every season of Pro Football Focus’ history, since 2007. The issue is Freeney is now going into his age 35 season so he’s near the end of the line. He should still get starting caliber money this off-season, but I don’t expect him to get any guaranteed money beyond 2015.

11. John Abraham

John Abraham is the active all-time leader in sacks and a potential future Hall-of-Famer (he’d get my vote), after grading out as a top-4 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2007-2012 with the Falcons. Because of his size, he didn’t get signed until July 2013, when the Cardinals gave him a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal to play rush linebacker in their 3-4, a position he’d never played before. Abraham proved to be a tremendous steal in the first year of his contract, grading out 13th at his new position, but the same cannot be said about the second year of his contract, as he was limited to 37 snaps by a serious concussion. Now going into his age 37 season, he’ll be looking at one-year, incentive laden deals with minimal guaranteed money, assuming he wants to continue his career. He’s reportedly 50/50 to retire as of this writing.

12. James Harrison

James Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better. He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season. Scheme versatile, he’ll draw interest on cheap, one-year deals this off-season, assuming he still wants to play.

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Interior Defensive Linemen

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Ndamukong Suh

Ndamukong Suh is the best free agent on the open market this off-season, with guys like Justin Houston, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas can all getting franchise tagged. Because of franchise tag rules and Suh’s massive cap number in the contract year of his rookie deal in 2014, franchising Suh would have cost the Lions 26.7 million, so that wasn’t really an option. The Lions could still sign Suh before free agency hits, but more than likely he’s going to want to test the market, in search of the richest deal that a defensive player has ever signed. He wants a deal bigger than the 6-year, 100 million dollar extension JJ Watt got last off-season. Suh isn’t quite Watt, but some team could still be willing to give him that. Suh joins Gerald McCoy (who got a 7-year, 98 million dollar extension last off-season) as the only defensive tackle to grade out in the top-4 among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons.

2. Terrance Knighton

Knighton was a 3rd round pick by the Jaguars in 2009. He started 49 games in 4 seasons with the Jaguars, but ended up grading out slightly below average in all 4 seasons. Knighton signed a 2-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos in his first trip to free agency two off-seasons ago, a move that paid off in a big way for the Broncos. Knighton proved to be a late bloomer, grading out 9th in 2013 and proving himself again in 2014, grading out 12th. The 6-3 330 pounder is a fierce run stopper and can rush the passer as well. His 2nd trip to the open market should be much more lucrative than his first and he’s expected to be priced out of the Broncos’ budget. He’ll probably want to stay in a 4-3 where he can get more pass rush opportunities anyway and the Broncos are moving to a 3-4 and need more of a true nose tackle. A reunion with Jack Del Rio in Oakland makes a lot of sense. The Raiders have a ton of cap space and a huge need at defensive tackle and Knighton has played his entire career with Del Rio, first when he was Jacksonville’s head coach and then when he was Denver’s defensive coordinator. Del Rio is now the head coach in Oakland.

3. Jared Odrick

Odrick was a first round pick in 2010, but it took him a few years to get it together. Odrick was limited to 22 snaps as a rookie in 2010 by injury, struggled in his first year as a starter in 2011 as a 3-4 defensive end, and then struggled even more in 2012 as a 4-3 defensive end, grading out 59th out of 62 eligible at his position that year. However, the Dolphins moved him back to his natural position of 4-3 defensive tackle in 2013 and the results have been great. He was 16th at his position in 2013 and then 19th in 2014. Coming off two straight strong seasons, Odrick will command a lot of money on the open market, especially from 4-3 teams who need someone who can get to the quarterback from the interior like Odrick can.

4. Nick Fairley

Nick Fairley is a frustrating player. He went 13th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but, 4 years into his career, it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season. That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps, but now he heads into free agency still an enigma. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, discipline problems that won’t get better if he gets a ton of money, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 6-7 million annually.

5. Stephen Paea

Paea, a 2011 2nd round pick, had the best season of his career in 2014 and at the perfect time, as he was in a contract year. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle this year. However, teams should be wary about giving him too much money as he’s still a one year wonder. Paea graded out below average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013, before 2014. I don’t expect him back with the Bears as he wouldn’t be a great fit for the new 3-4 defense they will be implementing under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

6. Dan Williams

Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps. On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season.

7. Vince Wilfork

Wilfork wasn’t bad in his first season back from a torn Achilles, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end, but he’s going into his age 34 season and the Patriots can save 8.5 million in cash and 8.067 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season. He’s a fan favorite, he’s been with the team for 11 years, and he played well last season, but that was just too much for the Patriots to pay to an aging player given their cap problems and the other players they have to keep long-term. Wilfork will draw a good amount of interest on the open market.

8. Henry Melton

Henry Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 6th ranked in 2012, but he was limited to 125 snaps in 3 games in 2013 by a torn ACL. As he was playing on the franchise tag in 2013, he hit free agency last off-season and signed with the Cowboys. The Cowboys only paid 2.25 million plus incentives for Melton in 2014, but the Cowboys declined his 3-year, 24 million dollar option for the rest of his contract. Melton played well when on the field in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle, but he had recurring knee problems and played just 433 snaps. There’s still a chance the Cowboys bring him back on a renegotiated deal. He’s had the best years of his career under Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, who was previously in Chicago, he’s still relatively young (going into his age 29 season), he played well last season, and he could bounce back in his 2nd year since the injury.

9. Corey Peters

Peters tore his Achilles in 2013 at the worst possible time, in a meaningless week 16 game, just before he was set to hit free agency. Peters was forced to settle for a cheap one year deal back in Atlanta in an attempt to rehab his value and he did a decent job. He played 15 games (except week 1 when he was kept out for precautionary reasons) and graded out about average on 535 snaps. Other than that Achilles tear, he doesn’t have a significant injury history, as he’s missed just 9 games in 5 seasons combined since the Falcons drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010. Peters struggled in the first 3 seasons of his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including a 2010 season in which he graded out 62nd out of 76 eligible and a 2012 season in which he graded out 83rd out of 85 eligible, but he’s graded out right about average in each of the last 2 seasons. Only going into his age 27 season, he could get a multi-year deal this off-season.

10. Kendall Langford

Langford is a decent player, but he’s owed a non-guaranteed 6 million dollars in his contract year in 2015, after signing a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago. He simply wasn’t worth that kind of money in his previous role in St. Louis, playing 494 snaps in 2014. He played well and is probably still a starting caliber player, but he was stuck behind former first rounders Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald, both of whom are coming off of strong seasons, and Langford just wasn’t worth it to the Rams. He’ll probably get a starting job elsewhere.

11. Cory Redding

Redding was arguably the best defensive lineman the Colts had last season, at least he was in terms of Pro Football Focus grade. He finished the season as their 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end, struggling against the run (just like the rest of the front 7), but getting good pass rush. The problem is he’s going into his age 35 season so it’s hard to trust him going forward. The 12-year veteran also had a strong season in 2013, grading out 11th at his position, but he ranked 27th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and could regress to that level in 2015 given his age. Still, he’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons and he won’t break anyone’s bank so he’ll be a solid, cheap signing for a team with a need on the defensive line. There’s mutual interest between him and the Colts in a reunion. A reunion with his former team the Baltimore Ravens, who have a depth need on the defensive line, is another option.

12. CJ Mosley

CJ Mosley has been the 3rd defensive tackle for the Lions over the past 2 seasons, but he’s made 9 starts, played 836 snaps, and graded out above average in both seasons so he’s been very important to the Lions. When you take into account that he graded out above average in 2011 and 2012, this is one of the best reserve defensive linemen in the NFL. He’s going into his age 32 season so he won’t get a ton of money on the open market, but he should get paid like a low-end starter. If the Lions are unable to bring back Suh and Fairley, Mosley could easily be a starter in Detroit next season.

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Centers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Rodney Hudson

Rodney Hudson, a 2011 2nd round pick, has been a starter for the Chiefs at center over the past 3 seasons and he’s been very good. He only made 3 starts in his first year as a center in 2012, but he graded out above average then and he’s done that as well over the past 2 seasons, while making all 32 starts. He graded out 17th in 2013 and then had the best season of his career in 2014 at the perfect time in his contract year, as he graded out 3rd at his position. One of the better centers in the game, Hudson will be paid like that this off-season.

2. Chris Myers

Myers is an accomplished player, but an aging, declining, and expensive one as well. He’s also going into his age 34 season and, though he’s graded out above average in every season since Pro Football Focus started in 2007, he had his worst recorded season in 2014, grading out 16th among centers. He also especially struggled in pass protection, getting by largely on strong run blocking. The Texans cut him to save 6 million in cash and cap space, but he still deserves to be a starter somewhere in 2015. He fits best in a zone blocking scheme.

3. Stefen Wisniewski

Stefen Wisniewski graded out slightly below average in 2014 (22nd out of 41 eligible centers), but he’s still one of the Raiders’ few talented young starters. After struggling at guard as a rookie, the 2011 2nd round pick moved to center in 2012 and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th and 11th ranked center in 2012 and 2013 respectively. They’d be wise to try to re-sign him as he’s not the type of player who is going to break the bank.

4. Brian De La Puente

De La Puente started 47 games for the Saints from 2011-2013 and graded out 13th, 4th, and 16th among centers in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. Still, despite that, he was forced to settle for a cheap one-year deal in free agency last off-season and didn’t have a guaranteed starting role. He ended up making 6 starts between center and left guard as injuries hit the Bears on the offensive line this year and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked center despite the limited action. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher among centers. Only going into his age 30 season, he deserves a starting job and a multi-year deal in free agency this off-season.

5. Will Montgomery

With the Redskins, Montgomery graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked center in 2011, 5th in 2012, and 15th in 2013. However, he was still released by the Redskins last off-season with a new regime coming in with a new blocking scheme and he only got a cheap, 1-year deal from the Broncos. Montgomery made 8 starts down the stretch for the Broncos and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center. He’s going into his age 32 season and he’s not a good fit for a power blocking scheme, but he deserves to be a starter somewhere in the NFL in 2015. A return to Denver could make sense as Gary Kubiak is a Mike Shanahan disciple and Montgomery had his best years under Shanahan in Washington.

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