Month: March 2015

Dallas Cowboys 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive Tackle

Nick Hayden and Henry Melton played 585 and 433 snaps respectively at defensive tackle last season, but both might not be back in 2015. Hayden is a free agent and should not be welcomed back as a starter, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle in 2014 and their 2nd worst in 2013. Melton was significantly better, grading out 14th at his position in 2014, but he’s had recurring knee problems and the Cowboys are not expected to pick up his 3-year, 24 million dollar option this off-season. He could be back on a cheaper deal, but as it currently stands, the Cowboys need to add at least one, if not two new defensive tackles to the mix to go with budding young star Tyrone Crawford, who graded out 13th at the position on 536 snaps in 2014.

Running Back

DeMarco Murray was such a big part of their offense in 2014 with 392 carries, but the Cowboys only offered him a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal before free agency so it sounds like Murray will test the open market and likely chase the money. Their depth behind him is less than ideal as Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle, and Ryan Williams have 80, 105, and 58 career carries respectively. They’ll need to find a replacement for Murray in the likely event he leaves. Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley will both be options 27th overall.

Outside Linebacker

Justin Durant, Bruce Carter, and Rolando McClain combined to make 27 starts at linebacker for the Cowboys in 2014 and all three are free agents. Anthony Hitchens, who played 541 snaps and made 8 starts, returns, but he struggled mightily as a 4th round rookie, grading out 35th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers, including 40th in coverage grade. He shouldn’t be anything more than a 3rd linebacker going forward. Sean Lee will be back in 2015 as well, moving to outside linebacker, but he missed all of the 2014 season with a torn ACL. One of the most injury prone players in the NFL, Lee has missed 31 games in 3 seasons and can’t be trusted to stay healthy going forward. They’ll need to sign someone else at the outside linebacker position.

Defensive End

Jeremy Mincey did a solid job as a starting defensive end for the Cowboys in 2014, while DeMarcus Lawrence flashed in limited action as a 2nd round rookie and should be ready for a bigger role in 2015. However, with both George Selvie and Anthony Spencer set to hit free agency, they’ll need to add depth if they aren’t able to re-sign one or both of them. Lawrence is still unproven, while Mincey is going into his age 32 season and was cut mid-season by the Jaguars as recently as 2013.

Middle Linebacker

I mentioned above that Rolando McClain is a free agent this off-season. The Cowboys are expecting him back as they’ve moved Sean Lee to outside linebacker, but if he doesn’t re-sign, they’ll need a replacement. Lee could move back to the middle, but he’s incredibly injury prone and that would leave a huge hole at outside linebacker. Even if McClain returns, there’s no guarantee he can stay out of trouble, given his past. Depth needs to be added here at the very least.

Cornerback

Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, and Sterling Moore were the Cowboys’ top 3 cornerbacks in 2014 in snaps played. Scandrick and Moore graded out 10th and 22nd respectively among cornerbacks, but Carr graded out 90th out of 108 eligible and Moore is a free agent this off-season. Carr is a cap casualty candidate, while Moore might not be back. Morris Claiborne will be back from injury in 2014, but he’s coming off of a torn patellar tendon and hadn’t shown much in 3 years before that, since being drafted 6th overall in 2015. Help could be needed at the position.

Offensive Tackle

Doug Free played well at right tackle last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked offensive tackle, while reserve Jeremy Parnell played very well in 5 starts when Free was hurt, grading out 20th overall at his position on just 388 snaps. However, both those players are free agents so they’ll need to re-sign one of them or find a replacement. If I were them, I’d go with Parnell, who is younger (age 28 vs. age 31) and will likely come cheaper.

Wide Receiver

If, for whatever reason, the Cowboys don’t bring back Dez Bryant in 2015, they’ll need to replace him somehow.

Key Free Agents

WR Dez Bryant

Dez Bryant has always been productive, with 381 career catches for 5424 yards and 56 touchdowns in 75 career games in 5 seasons, since being drafted in the first round in 2010. He’s been especially good over the past 3 seasons, as he’s had 3 straight seasons of at least 80 catches for 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns. He hasn’t missed a game in those 3 seasons and has caught 273 passes for 3935 yards and 41 touchdowns in that time period, which are video game numbers. However, 2014 was easily his best season. After grading out 39th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2010, 10th in 2011, 52nd in 2012, 27th in 2013, Bryant graded out 2nd in 2014. He’ll almost certainly be given the franchise tag and cost a boatload to re-sign long-term. The Cowboys seem prepared to meet his demands. They better hope Bryant doesn’t regress or let himself go once he’s gotten his boatloads. Drops have been a serious issue for him in the past and he’s always been a target monster so he hasn’t always been the most efficient player.

RB DeMarco Murray

The Cowboys tried a very interesting approach with DeMarco Murray in 2014. Knowing he likely wouldn’t be back as a free agent at the end of the season, the Cowboys decided to ride DeMarco Murray into the ground, giving him 392 carries and not caring if it destroyed his body long-term. The results were very good as the Cowboys went 12-4 and won a playoff game on the back of Murray and his 1825 rushing yards. However, he’s a very risky signing this off-season for a variety of reasons, especially in a league where running backs are getting decreasingly valuable every year. For one, since 1988, only 4 of 26 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. Those 26 backs averaged 365 carries per season, rushed for 1612 yards, and scored 14 touchdowns in the season they led the league in carries. The following season, they averaged 262 carries per season, rushed for 1053 yards, and scored 8 touchdowns. Murray already saw his YPC drop from 5.14 in the first 8 games of the season to 4.23 in the final 8. There’s a reason backs are rarely given more than 350 carries, as teams don’t want to ruin that player for the following season. The Cowboys knew Murray wasn’t coming back in 2015 though so they didn’t care. They offered him a mere 4-year, 16 million dollar deal this off-season. Murray has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days too. He made it through all 16 games in 2014 (not without a broken hand), but he missed 11 games in first 3 seasons and fell to the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft because of injury concerns. Even if Murray stays healthy in 2015, he’s highly unlikely to even come within 50 carries of his 2014 total, a problem as his 4.71 YPC in 2014 was good, but not outstanding or anything. He got to 1800 yards on volume largely. He also won’t be able to bring the Cowboys’ offensive line to his next destination so his efficiency should go down too. The Cowboys were Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked team in run blocking grade. Murray should have a huge buyer beware stamp on his head.

MLB Rolando McClain

Rolando McClain has a crazy story. Drafted 8th overall in 2010 by the Raiders, McClain came into the league with a ton of potential. McClain showed that potential early in his career, grading out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL, including 14th ranked in 2010 and 11th ranked in 2012. However, he was kicked off the Raiders in the middle of his strong 2012 season because of issues with the coaching staff and then, after briefly resurfacing in Baltimore, was out of football entirely in 2013. He’s been arrested 3 times already since he’s been in the NFL. However, the Cowboys took a shot on him in 2014 and that talent was still there after all that, as he graded out 8th among middle linebackers in 2014, serving as a savior on the Dallas defense. McClain is obviously going to be a risky guy to pay on the open market, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and he’s plenty talented so someone will give him a big deal with minimal guaranteed money. Dallas would welcome him back.

OT Doug Free

Free has been with the Cowboys since they drafted him in the 4th round in 2007, 8 years ago. He played just 17 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, but jumped into the starting lineup for 8 starts in 2009 and graded out 30th among offensive tackles. He followed that up by starting 16 games in 2010, grading out 5th among offensive tackles, and getting a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal out of it. That contract didn’t start great though, as he graded out below average in each of the first 2 seasons of the deal, including 68th out of 80 eligible in 2012. Things got so bad he moved to left tackle to right tackle to the bench by the end of 2012. Rather than cutting him the following off-season, the Cowboys agreed to a reduced salary in 2013 and it paid off. Free graded out 20th in 2013 and 21st in 2014. He’s going into his age 31 season, so he won’t get a long-term deal really, but he should be someone’s starting right tackle next season and he should get paid reasonably well.

OT Jeremy Pernell

Pernell has a chance to be this off-season’s Anthony Collins, an inexperienced offensive linemen who has flashed when given a chance that gets a significant amount of money as a starter on the open market. Pernell was a 2009 undrafted free agent coming into this season that had played 294 snaps in 5 seasons in the NFL coming into 2014, but he ended up playing 388 snaps, making 5 starts, and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked offensive tackle in 2014. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better than him. He won’t quite get the 5-year, 30 million dollar deal Collins got last off-season, as his history isn’t quite as clean as Collins’ was, but Pernell could easily be making starter’s money to start somewhere next season. That somewhere could be Dallas if they decide he’s a younger, cheaper version of Doug Free.

DE George Selvie

George Selvie played just 662 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career combined from 2010-2012, after being drafted in the 7th round, but he’s found a starting job in Dallas over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts over that time period. However, with Jeremy Mincey locked in as one starter and DeMarcus Lawrence likely moving into the starting lineup in his 2nd season in the league in 2015, the Cowboys might not have a starting job for Selvie in 2015. Given that he graded out slightly below average in each of the last 2 seasons, he might be better off as a 3rd rotational defensive end. He’s a borderline starter wherever he goes and shouldn’t break anyone’s bank.

DE Anthony Spencer

Anthony Spencer, at one point, was given the franchise tag in back to back seasons and was one of the best 3-4 outside linebackers in the game. From 2007-2012, Anthony Spencer, a first round pick in 2007, was a top-11 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in all 6 seasons, including 4 as an every down starter and maxing out at #1 overall in 2012. After playing so well on the franchise tag the first time in 2012, he was tagged again in 2013, but it didn’t go so well as he played just 1 game thanks to a serious knee injury that required microfracture surgery. Spencer was back for 13 games in 2014, but he played just 384 snaps, though he did grade out slightly above average. Going into his age 31 season, it’s very possible he’ll never be the same player again, but he’ll be another year removed from the injury in 2015 and he’s a nice buy low option for a team with a pass rush need on a tight budget. Pittsburgh comes to mind and a return to Dallas is also an option. He’s probably a better fit for his natural 3-4 system, but he played in a 4-3 in college and in the past 2 seasons in limited action in Dallas.

OLB Justin Durant

Justin Durant was drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 and has quietly had a very solid career, grading out above average in 7 of the 8 seasons he’s been in the NFL. However, he’s averaged just 585 snaps per season, often playing as purely a two-down run stopper, a role he excels in. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s played just a combined 538 snaps and he’s going into his age 30 season, coming off a torn biceps injury. He’ll come cheap this off-season, but he still can play a role for a team next season.

OLB Bruce Carter

The Cowboys drafted Bruce Carter in the 2nd round in 2011 despite the fact that he tore his ACL late in his final collegiate season at North Carolina. Carter was limited to 41 snaps as a rookie, but he looked on his way to a breakout 2nd season before a serious arm injury cut his season short. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked middle linebacker on 625 snaps and 11 starts. Moving back to his natural position of 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013, many expected him to have a great season, but he did the opposite, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 35 eligible. In 2014, he was limited to 8 starts in 13 games and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible. The potential he once appeared to have seems to have dissipated and he heads into free agency as a borderline starting outside linebacker and an injury prone one at that, with 15 missed games in 4 seasons. His best role might be as a two-down run stopping 4-3 outside linebacker. A move back to middle linebacker is also an intriguing option.

DT Nick Hayden

Hayden has made 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, but he’s been a major liability on the field, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their worst ranked defensive tackle in 2014. This should come as no surprise considering he was out of the league entirely in 2012 and played just 33 snaps in 2011. Wherever he ends up next, he should not be a starter. I’m not even sure he should be in the league. He’s started out of necessity for the Cowboys over the past 2 seasons and they should focus this off-season on finding an upgrade.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DT Henry Melton

Henry Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 6th ranked in 2012, but he was limited to 125 snaps in 3 games in 2013 by a torn ACL. As he was playing on the franchise tag in 2013, he hit free agency last off-season and signed with the Cowboys. The Cowboys only paid 2.25 million plus incentives for Melton in 2014, but he has a 3-year, 24 million dollar option that the Cowboys have to make a decision on this off-season. He wouldn’t technically be a cap casualty, but I expect the Cowboys to decide against bringing him back for the rest of his contract. Melton played well when on the field in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle, but he had recurring knee problems and played just 433 snaps. There’s still a chance the Cowboys bring him back on a renegotiated deal. He’s had the best years of his career under Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, who was previously in Chicago, he’s still relatively young (going into his age 29 season), he played well last season, and he could bounce back in his 2nd year since the injury.

CB Brandon Carr

Brandon Carr signed a 5-year, 50.1 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago. However, he’s only graded out 52nd, 58th, and 90th among cornerbacks in 2012, 2013, and 2014, showing middling play at best and not living up to his contract whatsoever. The Cowboys would only save 566K on the cap by letting Carr go, as they’ve kicked a lot of money forward on his contract already, but they could make him a post-June 1st cut and save more on this year’s cap at the expense of next season’s, or agree to a pay cut with him. Anything would be better than paying him another 8.5 million in 2015.

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Washington Redskins re-sign TE Niles Paul

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Niles Paul was a 5th round pick of the Redskins’ in 2011 and turning the big bodied wide receiver into a pass catching tight end was always kind of a pet project of Mike Shanahan’s. Ironically, Paul didn’t really produce until this year, when Jay Gruden came in. Paul caught 39 passes for 507 yards and a touchdown on 280 routes run, largely in the absence of oft injured tight end Jordan Reed. The 6-1 241 pounder predictably struggles as a run blocker (62nd out of 67 eligible in that aspect this season), but has a role in the league as a #2 move tight end.

This 3-year, 10 million dollar deal keeps him off the open market where he would have joined a weak tight end market. With Charles Clay getting transition tagged by the Dolphins, you could make a case that Paul was the 3rd best tight end on the open market after Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. Given that, this deal makes sense financially, even if it is a slight overpay for a guy who doesn’t block well enough to be an every down tight end. However, tight end wasn’t really a need for the Redskins. As injury prone as Jordan Reed is, he’s still a very solid, young tight end overall when healthy and it would have made more sense for the Redskins to save this money for more help defensively, but I don’t hate the move.

Grade: B-

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Seattle Seahawks extend RB Marshawn Lynch

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Going into the season, there was talk the Seahawks would not be bringing Lynch back in 2015, owed a non-guaranteed 7 million dollars in a contract year, with other players to lock up long-term. Instead, Lynch ended up getting a raise and an extension. This deal is worth 31 million over 3 years with 13 million guaranteed in the first year, including a 7.5 million dollar signing bonus, a raise of 5 million. Perhaps it’s their way of saying sorry for not giving him the way on the 1-yard line at the end of the Super Bowl.

More likely, it’s their reward for Lynch once again having a fantastic season. Lynch rushed for 1310 yards and 13 touchdowns on 280 carries, an average of 4.68 YPC. Over the past 4 seasons, Lynch has missed 1 game and rushed for 5357 yards and 48 touchdowns on 1181 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC and he’s been even better than his numbers suggest as he’s run behind a weak offensive line. He’s graded out 48th, 5th, 4th, and 2nd on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively and his 273 broken tackles on carries lead the NFL over that time period. He’s also the only running back in the NFL to grade out in the top-5 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons. There’s a case to be made that he’s been the best running back in football over the past 3 seasons, despite what guys like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and LeVeon Bell have done over single seasons over the past 3 years.

The issue still remains that he’s going into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. That suggests that Lynch has about 2, maybe 3 good years left in the tank and that possibly his best days are behind him. 12 million dollars is a lot to commit to a running back for one year in today’s NFL, especially one with as much tread on his tires as Lynch has, no matter how good that running back is. I definitely understand why the Seahawks made this move, but I can’t say I love it.

Grade: B-

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Kansas City Chiefs re-sign MLB Josh Mauga

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Josh Mauga was a 2009 undrafted free agent who played 235 snaps from 2009-2013 and was out of the league entirely in 2013, but he ended up making the Chiefs’ 53 man roster and starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. Mauga predictably struggled through, grading out 54th out of 60 eligible. Johnson will be back in 2015, but Mauga could still have a role for the Chiefs as the starting middle linebacker next to Johnson as James-Michael Johnson struggled even more than Mauga did last season.

If history is any indication, that could be a two-down role next to Derrick Johnson in 2015, though the Chiefs’ potential lack of safety depth might prevent them from using 3 safeties inside of 2 linebackers in sub packages like they like to do. Mauga’s new deal pays him 8 million over 3 years. It’s not an egregious overpayment or anything, especially for a cap strapped team, and it fits his likely 2015 role, but Mauga wasn’t worth too much more than the minimum, given his history and his 2014 play.

Grade: C

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Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: The Jets surrendered a 5th round pick for Brandon Marshall in this deal, much like they surrendered a 6th round pick mid-season to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. Marshall is older than Harvin, going into his age 31 season, but I think this is a much better deal than the Harvin deal. Related, this deal allowed the Jets to release Percy Harvin and avoid paying him a 10.5 million dollar salary in 2015. All in all, the Jets paid 7.2 million and a 6th round pick for Harvin and got 29 catches, 20 kickoff returns, and 22 carries in a lost season, overall a head-scratching move by the Jets.

Back to Marshall, he’s coming off of a down season, catching 61 passes for 721 yards and 8 touchdowns. The catches and yards were both his lowest since his rookie year. He was limited by an ankle injury all season and missed the final 3 games of the season after suffering a collapsed lung in a game. However, Marshall had missed a combined 4 games in his previous 7 seasons and, even going into his age 31 season, he should be able to bounce back for at least two more good seasons. In addition to being incredibly durable prior to 2014, he was also incredibly consistent, catching at least 80 passes for 1000 yards in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons of 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. Even with the down year last year, he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons, including 8th in 2012, and 1st in 2013. The 7.7 million they’ll pay him in 2015 is pretty reasonable for him and his 8.1 million dollar salary for 2016 is non-guaranteed.

Grade: A-

Trade for Bears: The Bears’ new regime seemed pretty determined to move on from Marshall over the past week so in that sense credit them for getting a 5th round pick for him. The question I have is why they were so willing to get rid of him. Sure, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off a down year, but, as I illustrated above, he should be able to bounce back and his scheduled salary for 2015 wasn’t much. Marshall has been notorious for not always being liked by his coaches and teammates and suffers from borderline personality disorder so that might have played a role in his departure, but he’s still a good football player with good football left in him. This move leaves the Bears with not only a huge hole opposite Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver, but they also still need help at the #3 wide receiver spot as Marquess Wilson is still incredibly unproven, with 462 snaps played in 2 years since the Bears drafted him in the 7th round in 2013. I don’t understand this move by them.

Grade: C

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New York Jets re-sign MLB David Harris

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

David Harris is, by all reports, a nice guy, a likeable teammate, and easy to coach. He’s been a defensive captain and signal caller for the Jets defensively for years and he’s been a leader on and off the field. I feel like that gets him overpaid. Four off-seasons ago, Harris signed a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Jets, even though he graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the league and then just 21st and 25th respectively in 2009 and 2010. The Jets kept him through the duration of that deal even though he graded out below average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 48th out of 53 eligible in 2012, and maxed out at 18th. He was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked middle linebacker in 2014.

He doesn’t get quite as much money the 2nd time around, 21.5 million over 3 years with 15 million guaranteed, but he’s also going into his age 31 season. This is still an overpay. I understand it’s a very weak middle linebacker class in free agency and the draft as well to some extent. Outside of Harris and Rolando McClain, who has a tough record off-the-field, there really isn’t much in terms of free agent middle linebackers, which makes it a player’s market. However, guaranteeing player who is a solid starter at best 15 million for his age 31 and 32 seasons isn’t the right move. Something in the neighborhood of 3-year, 15 million with 6 million guaranteed would have been more appropriate.

Grade: C

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Carolina Panthers extend TE Greg Olsen

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Panthers, Uncategorized

Olsen was originally owed 5.25 million dollars in a contract year in 2015. This deal adds on 22.5 million over 3 years to the deal, gives him a 12 million dollar signing bonus, and keeps one of the best tight ends in the game under contract at a reasonable rate into the future. Olsen is going into his age 30 season, but this deal isn’t too long-term and he’s coming off of the first 1000+ yard season of his career in 2014, one of just two tight ends in the NFL to do that last season (Rob Gronkowski is the other one). Also an adequate blocker, Olsen graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked tight end last season, with only Jason Witten between him and Gronk.

He’s no one year wonder either as he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 1st round in 2007, including above average as a pass catcher in all 8 seasons. He’s not flashy, but he’s productive (3 straight seasons of 800+ receiving yards), he doesn’t have a weakness, and he’s a huge part of Carolina’s offense. He also hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2007. This was a smart move by the Panthers. My only issue is how much money they gave him up front combined with his age. It’s a bit of a stretch to say he’s going to decline significantly in a year or two, but if he does, the Panthers won’t be able to get more than half the value of this extension back.

Grade: A-

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Minnesota Vikings trade QB Matt Cassel to the Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Buffalo: Cassel is hardly a good quarterback, but he still instantly becomes the best quarterback on the Bills’ roster. They had a desperate need at the quarterback position after veteran Kyle Orton retired, leaving them with 2013 1st round bust EJ Manuel. Aside from a disastrous 2012 season in Kansas City, Cassel has been solid in his career. In his career, he’s completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 96 touchdowns, and 70 interceptions.

In the last season he saw significant action, Cassel completed 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible, not terrible, which is really all the Bills are looking for at this point. Sure, Cassel is going into his age 33 season, coming off of a lost season with injury, and completed just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 5.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions before going down last season, but he’s still better than almost every quarterback available in free agency this off-season.

The price the Bills paid for Cassel wasn’t much, a 4.75 million dollar salary and cap number in 2015, a 2016 7th round pick, and a swap of a 2015 5th round pick for a 2015 6th round pick. It’s certainly better than the 6.25 million guaranteed the Browns gave Josh McCown, who the Bills were also interested in this off-season. It’s comparable to or better than giving this same kind of money to the likes of Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer in free agency. I don’t love the move for the Bills, but it’s kind of the move they had to make.

Grade: B

Trade for Minnesota: Minnesota comes out the winner here, though both sides should be happy with this deal. Cassel wasn’t worth 4.75 million to them given that Teddy Bridgewater, their 2014 1st round pick, broke out as their quarterback of the future in Cassel’s absence last season, completing 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. There’s a very good chance they were planning on making him a salary cap casualty so credit the Vikings for getting something for him and freeing up a good amount of cap space. The Vikings can find a backup for Bridgewater at less than half of Cassel’s salary.

Grade: A

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San Francisco 49ers sign DE Darnell Dockett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The Cardinals cut Darnell Dockett last week, saving 6.8 million on the cap by avoiding paying him a non-guaranteed 6.8 million dollar salary. Dockett isn’t getting nearly that much with San Francisco, as he signed for 7.5 million over 2 years with just 2 million in the first year guaranteed. However, that’s still too much. Anything more than a minimum deal with incentives for Dockett would have been too much. Dockett is going into his age 34 season after missing all of 2014 with a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem.

He wasn’t that good before the injury either as he was perennially one of the NFL’s most overrated players, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. The 49ers have a need at the 3-4 defensive end position with Ray McDonald getting kicked off the team with off-the-field problems and Justin Smith considering retirement, going into his age 36 season, but giving Dockett starter’s money and counting on Dockett to start is a mistake. The Cardinals should feel happy that they stuck their divisional rival with a dud.

Grade: D

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Baltimore Ravens 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Things were so bad at cornerback for the Ravens that Rashaan Melvin, a 2013 undrafted free agent who was signed mid-season and made his NFL debut week 15, drew the start for them in the playoffs. Jimmy Smith’s injury was a big part of the problem, but the problem has been there since last off-season, when they failed to find a replacement for Corey Graham, their talented #3 cornerback who signed with Buffalo. Their depth was shaky coming into the season (#3 cornerback Asa Jackson had never played a defensive snap in the NFL coming into this season) and this kind of situation was foreseeable. Smith will be back healthy next year, but Lardarius Webb could be an off-season cap casualty. He hasn’t been the same since a 2012 ACL tear and the Ravens would save 2 million on the cap and 8 million in cash by cutting him this off-season. Even if he sticks around, they need a 3rd cornerback.

Wide Receiver

The Ravens are pretty backed up against the cap so re-signing Torrey Smith is a luxury they probably won’t be able to afford. Steve Smith led the team in receiving with 79 catches for 1065 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, there’s a very good chance that’s his last 1000 yard season and that he’s due for a big dropoff in production soon, as he’s going into his age 36 season. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Marlon Brown could start in Torrey Smith’s absence, but the 2013 undrafted free agent graded out 82nd out 111 eligible wide receivers as a rookie in 2013 and then proceeded to play just 379 snaps in 2014. Depth is definitely needed at the position.

Tight End

Given how thin the Ravens are at wide receiver, their lack of tight end depth is especially concerning. Dennis Pitta caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2012, but has played just 7 games since then thanks to a hip injury. He’ll be back as his 5 million dollar salary is fully guaranteed, but there’s no guarantee he can stay healthy, play a big role, or play well, as he’s going into his age 30 season having suffered two hip dislocations. Owen Daniels was the starter in his absence in 2014, but he might not be back, as a free agent going into his age 33 season. Michael Campanero was drafted in the 3rd round in 2014 and could be ready for a bigger role in 2015, after grading out above average on 376 snaps as a rookie, but they should still add at the position this off-season.

Running Back

Justin Forsett was a godsend at running back for the Ravens after the Ray Rice incident, rushing for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries, an average of 5.39 YPC. However, he’s a free agent now and might not be back. There’s also debate about whether or not they should even bring him back as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak was largely responsible for his success and now he’s gone. He’s also going into his age 30 season already and has only surpassed 118 carries and 627 yards once in his career. Behind him, Lorenzo Taliaferro is an unproven 2014 4th round pick with 68 career carries, while Bernard Pierce has a mere 3.78 YPC average in his career.

Defensive End

Haloti Ngata and Chris Canty led the Ravens in snaps played by 3-4 defensive ends last season, but they are going into their age 31 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2015, both of which happen to be contract years. Both players are cap casualty candidates because the Ravens are backed up against the cap and can save a significant amount of cap space by letting one or both of these players go.

Key Free Agents

OLB Pernell McPhee

Pernell McPhee graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 despite playing just 540 snaps. He was 2nd in the NFL behind only JJ Watt with 21 quarterback hits. He’s not a one year wonder as that type of player either as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle as a 5th round rookie in 2011 on just 348 snaps and has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. Supremely versatile with experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 4-3 defensive end, a 3-4 defensive end, and a 4-3 defensive tackle, McPhee is only going into his age 27 season and could break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game in his next home if he’s given a bigger role. At the same time, he’s still never played more than 540 snaps in a season so he’s still unproven as a full-time starter and he’s still unproven outside of Baltimore, where they have such great supporting talent defensively. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 8 million dollars per year. The Ravens have good depth at 3-4 outside linebacker with Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, and Courtney Upshaw so they’re unlikely to bring McPhee back, given how little cap space they have.

WR Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league. He’ll probably be paid around 7 million dollars annually (between what Golden Tate and Eric Decker got last off-season) and that’s probably a little rich for him. He’s probably out of the Ravens’ price range too.

RB Justin Forsett

Coming into 2014, Justin Forsett was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. However, Forsett took advantage of the Ray Rice situation and rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. His 5.08 career average is very nice, but he’s already going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. After breaking out in Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme in 2014, a union with the Atlanta Falcons makes sense for both sides. The Falcons have a running back need after cutting Steven Jackson and Kubiak disciple Kyle Shanahan is the offensive coordinator there.

TE Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008 and has missed 27 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He’s also going into his age 33 season. However, he had a decent season in 2014, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 attempts (66.7%) and 410 routes run (1.29 yards per route run) in 15 games. He’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in each of the last 4 seasons and he’s a decent run blocker too. He’s a borderline starter with little long-term upside and should be paid like one, but he could still be a solid veteran addition for a team. He’s played his whole career for Gary Kubiak, first in Houston where he was head coach and then Baltimore where he was offensive coordinator, and could follow Kubiak to Denver, where the Broncos are in need of a tight end with Julius Thomas likely to leave in free agency.

S Darian Stewart

Stewart is a 2010 undrafted free agent who impressed on 196 snaps as a rookie, grading out above average, but was forced into a starting role too early in 2011, as he graded out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season. As a result, he played just 82 snaps in 2012, but he’s rehabbed his value in the last two seasons. In 2013, he graded out only slightly below average on 583 snaps and then in 2014 he graded out above average for the first time since his rookie season on 782 snaps (14 starts). Stewart is an unspectacular player, but he hits the open market as a fringe starter in a league with lack of depth at the safety position and could make a decent amount of money on the open market. With Will Hill, Matt Elam, and Terrence Brooks under contract for 2015, the cap strapped Ravens will likely not be bringing him back this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Chris Canty

Chris Canty was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle as recently as 2012 and graded out above average as recently as 2013, but he graded out below average on just 360 snaps in 2014. That’s especially concerning considering he’s entering his age 33 season. Also concerning is the fact that he missed 5 games with injury. The last season he played all 16 games was 2011 and he’s missed 13 games over the past 3 seasons combined. The Ravens would save 2.66 million by cutting him. They wouldn’t miss him much and need to cut unnecessary players with significant cap numbers.

CB Lardarius Webb

Lardarius Webb was given a 6-year, 52.742 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2011. However, Webb tore his ACL in 2012, seemed to bounce back in 2013, grading out 19th, but regressed mightily in 2014, grading out 78th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. He missed 3 games with injury and was limited in countless others with back problems. Webb has missed 16 games in 6 seasons and has injury issues that date back to his collegiate days so he’s an injury risk going forward. He could bounce back next year, but the Ravens are backed up against the cap and might opt to let him go. The Ravens can only save 2 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season, but they’d save 8 million in cash and have him off their cap completely for 2016. Designating him as a June 1st cut another option. That would free up more cap space this year, but he’d still be on their cap for 2016.

DE Haloti Ngata

Haloti Ngata’s name has been mentioned as someone who could be cut. The Ravens are backed up against the cap and can save 8.5 million on the cap and in cash by cutting Ngata ahead of his contract year. A better solution would be to give him an extension that immediately lowers his contract number and keeps him under contract for 2016 and beyond, as they did with Terrell Suggs last off-season. Ngata is going into his age 31 season, but he’s still a very valuable player. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007.

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