Baltimore Ravens 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Ravens went from one of the worst offensive teams in the league in 2013 to one of the better offensive teams in the league in 2014. In 2013, they ranked 30^th in rate of moving the chains. In 2014, they moved all the way up to 7^th, the biggest offensive leap in the NFL (Miami going from 26^th to 8^th was the 2^nd biggest). As a result, the Ravens went from 8-8 to 10-6 and won a road playoff game in Pittsburgh, before eventually coming up just short in a loss in New England in the next round. How did the Ravens improve that much? Well, it was a variety of factors, but, as you could guess, a big part of it was improved quarterback play.

Joe Flacco rebounded from the worst season of his career in 2013, when he completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, posting a career worst 73.1 QB rating and ranking 37^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, also a career worst. In 2014, however, he completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, posting a 91.0 QB rating (2^nd best of his career) and ranking 14^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, also 2^nd best in his career.

This season, Flacco should end up somewhere in the middle, more in lines with his career averages. For his career, he’s completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 148 touchdowns, and 90 interceptions. He’s graded as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th, 8^th, 14^th, 29^th, 20^th, 37^th, and 14^th ranked quarterbacks in 2008-2014 respectively, since the Ravens drafted him in the first round in 2008. He’s also never missed a start in 112 career games.

Part of his strong season last year was offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, who has since taken the Denver Broncos head coach job, but he was replaced with Marc Trestman, who is a solid offensive coordinator in his own right. Flacco won the Super Bowl in 2012, playing outstanding football in that post-season, but that is an outlier and a fluke when you look at the rest of his career. In terms of recent Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, Flacco is a lot closer to Eli Manning than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

However, he’s still one of the top-15 or so quarterbacks in the NFL. The Ravens had to break the bank to keep him as a free agent after the Super Bowl winning year, re-signing him for 120.6 million over 6 years. It’s a lot of money, but the Ravens didn’t really have much of a choice. As a result of that extension, the Ravens have been cap strapped for the past two off-seasons and will remain cap strapped in the future. Fortunately, the Ravens have one of the best general managers in the NFL in Ozzie Newsome, who has made a number of smart, cheap signings over the past 2 off-seasons to ensure that Flacco had both the offensive supporting cast and the defense to continue being in contention and that Flacco wouldn’t have to do it all by himself.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Arguably the smartest, cheap signing that Ozzie Newsome has made over the past 2 off-seasons was when he signed Justin Forsett for a minimum deal off the scrap heap last off-season. The Ravens didn’t just have improved quarterback play last season, as compared to 2013. They were also vastly better on the ground. The Ravens’ running back situation looked to be about as bad as it gets heading into last season. The previous season, the Ravens averaged a league worst 3.14 yards per carry on the ground, thanks to a combination of poor offensive line play and vastly subpar seasons from both lead back Ray Rice and backup Bernard Pierce.

To make matters worse, Ray Rice, easily their most proven running back, was suspended for the first two games of the season for domestic violence, hurting his chances of a bounce back year. Then, after the NFL decided they didn’t like the public backlash saw the elevator tape of Ray Rice for the first time ever, Rice was promptly suspended indefinitely and released by the Ravens. As it turns out, the Rice suspension was a blessing in disguise for the Ravens, at least on the football field.

Forsett took advantage of the situation and was one of the best running backs in the NFL last season, rushing for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC) and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. The Ravens went from dead last in the NFL in yards per carry in 2013 to 7^th in 2014, averaging 4.51 yards per carry. That made life much easier for Flacco and was a huge part of the reason why the Ravens’ offense was so improved last year.

Forsett’s 5.08 career YPC average suggests that he’s capable of having a similarly strong year in 2015, but he’s already going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. Going into 2014, he was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. He’ll also feel the absence of Gary Kubiak, who has a way of getting 1000+ yard seasons out of afterthought running backs. The fact that Forsett couldn’t get anything better than the 3-year, 9 million dollar deal the Ravens re-signed him to this off-season is telling, but I definitely wouldn’t rule out another strong season from him. If he does have another strong year, it’ll be yet another smart off-season signing by Ozzie Newsome as 9 million over 3 years for an above average starting running back, even in today’s NFL, is a steal.

If Forsett declines and the Ravens reduce his carries, it’ll be at the benefit of either Justin Taliaferro and/or Javorius Allen. Taliaferro, a 4^th round rookie last year, looks like the favorite right now to be Forsett’s backup and the Ravens primary big back at 6-0 226, but he had an underwhelming rookie year, rushing for 292 yards and 4 touchdowns on 68 carries (4.29 YPC) and wasn’t a highly regarded prospect coming out of Coastal Carolina. Allen, who the Ravens drafted in the 4^th round this year, has good size as well at 6-0 221, great hands, and could easily beat out Taliaferro for the #2 job.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Ravens’ offensive line was also significantly better in 2014 than in 2013, a big part of the reason why the Ravens’ passing game and running game was so much better and why their offense was so much better in general. The Ravens had 3 starters in 2013 that were among the worst in the league at their respective positions, Gino Gradkowski at center, AQ Shipley at left guard, and Michael Oher at right tackle, and the Ravens essentially replaced all 3 of those players with significantly better players in 2015.

The biggest upgrade was at right tackle, where 2^nd year pro Ricky Wagner broke out in his first season as a starter. After 131 nondescript snaps as a 5^th round rookie in 2013, Wagner graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked offensive tackle in 2014. On top of that, he was the 3^rd highest ranked right tackle. He’s a one year wonder and he wasn’t highly drafted, but he could definitely have another strong season. He seems like a young building block for the Ravens and yet another draft day steal by Ozzie Newsome.

At center, the Ravens got a boost from a veteran presence last season, bringing in Jeremy Zuttah via trade from Tampa Bay to replace Gino Gradkowski. Zuttah was solid, as he usually is, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked center and making all 16 starts. That’s pretty par for the course for him. A versatile interior offensive lineman who has experience at center (47 career starts), left guard (40 career starts), and right guard (5 career starts), Zuttah has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, but has never really been too much better than average. Only going into his age 29 season, I expect more of the same from him this season.

At left guard, the Ravens’ “new” starter in 2014 wasn’t really a new starter, but they did get Kelechi Osemele back from back surgery after he missed most of 2013 with injury and he was a massive upgrade on AQ Shipley and a massive boost for this offensive line. Osemele, a 2012 2^nd round pick, made 16 starts at right tackle as a rookie, grading out about average, but really flourished once moved to left guard during the Ravens’ Super Bowl run. The Ravens left him at left guard for 2013, a smart move, but back problems kept him from meeting his potential. He struggled through 443 snaps in 7 games before getting surgery and being put on IR.

Osemele returned in 2014 though and had the breakout year many were expecting from him in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked guard. He’s still a one year wonder in terms of being a top level offensive lineman, but, like Wagner, I would not at all be shocked if he continued that high level of play into 2015 and beyond. Like Wagner, he’s a young building block and someone they really want to be a part of their future. They’re reportedly currently working on a long-term extension with him, ahead of his contract year.

The Ravens’ other guard, Marshal Yanda, is also going into a contract year, which is why the Ravens used a 5^th round pick on Robert Myers in this past draft. The fact that the Ravens are trying to keep the younger Osemele over Yanda (ideally they’d be able to keep both) is telling because Yanda, while older, has been one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL over the past few years. Last year, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard, after uncharacteristically grading out 15^th in 2013, and that arguably made a bigger difference on the offensive line than any of their offensive line upgrades. Prior to 2013, he graded out in the top-5 at his position in three straight seasons, 2011 and 2012 at right guard and 2010 at right tackle. Even going into his age 31 season, he’s one of the most dominant players in the NFL.

The only starter on the offensive line that struggled for the Ravens last season, weirdly enough, was left tackle Eugene Monroe, who was one of their only good offensive linemen in 2013. He graded out 63^rd out of 84 eligible offensive tackles last year, but he has a good chance of bouncing back. A former first round pick in 2009, Monroe struggled early in his career, but graded out 6^thin 2011, 19^th in 2012, and 16^th in 2013 among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Overall, it’s one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and one that will continue to really help out their passing game and running game.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another one of Ozzie Newsome’s recent smart pickups was wide receiver Steve Smith, signed to a 3-year, 10.5 million last off-season. His addition was another big part of why this offense improved last season, as he was an upgrade over Marlon Brown, a 2013 undrafted free agent who played 821 snaps as a rookie and graded out 82^nd out of 111 eligible wide receivers. The Smith signing seemed like a weird deal at the time because of Smith was just cut by the Panthers, despite having guaranteed money on his contract for 2014, because he was at an advanced age in football years and coming off of the 3^rd worst season of his career in yards per game.

Smith proved the doubters wrong though, catching 79 passes for 1065 yards and 6 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked wide receiver. That’s the good news. The bad news is he’s unlikely to be able to repeat that kind of year in 2015, his age 36 season. While Smith started out last season well, catching 41 passes for 675 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 8 games, he caught just 38 passes for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns in his final 8 games. Over the first 8 games of the season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 19^th ranked wide receiver, but he ranked 72^nd out of 105 eligible during the final 8 games. Down the stretch, he resembled the receiver who got cut by Carolina the season before, bad news for his 2015, considering his age.

Smith has had a fantastic career and could be eventually bound for the Hall of Fame, with 13,262 receiving yards currently, 14^th all-time. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. It’s very likely last season was Smith’s last 1000+ yard season and he could see his abilities fall off a cliff significantly this season.

That’s especially bad news for the Ravens because they lost Torrey Smith to free agency this off-season, as the cap strapped Ravens were simply unable to match the 5-year, 40 million dollar deal the 49ers gave him. Smith was overpaid by San Francisco, but he was still a solid contributor for them in the passing game, grading out slightly above average last season and catching 49 passes for 767 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’ll be replaced by rookie 1^st round pick Breshad Perriman, who has plenty of upside, but who also is very raw and has issues with drops. He’ll be counted on for a big role as a rookie and could end up leading this receiving corps in targets if Smith struggles. He might not be ready for that kind of a role.

The Ravens’ depth at wide receiver isn’t good either. Marlon Brown is currently penciled in as the 3^rd receiver, but he struggled as a rookie, as I mentioned, and then played just 379 snaps last season, grading out below average again. Michael Campanero, a 2014 7^th round pick who flashed on 66 snaps as a rookie, is his primary competition. Kamar Aiken is also likely going to be in the mix. The 2011 undrafted free agent played 16 career snaps from 2011-2013 and then graded out below average on 279 last season.

Without much depth at wide receiver, the Ravens are probably going to use a lot of two tight end sets. The Ravens are banking on Dennis Pitta being healthy, but he’s missed 24 of 32 games over the past two seasons due to two separate hip dislocations. He caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked tight end in terms of pass catching grade in 2012, but he’s a major injury question going forward into his age 30 season. He’s currently unsure, but optimistic about his status for 2015, but the Ravens are reportedly expecting him to spend the first 6 weeks of the season on the Physical Unable to Perform list and are considering anything they get from him this year a bonus. If he didn’t have guaranteed money on his contract for 2015, he would have been an off-season cap casualty. Pitta is a poor blocker anyway, so he’ll be used in only a pass catching capacity even if healthy.

Owen Daniels was their starting tight end last season and did a decent job, but he left as a free agent. With Daniels gone and Pitta hurt, the Ravens are expecting a pair of young tight ends to be their top-2 tight ends this season and see a lot of action. Crockett Gilmore, a 2014 3^rd round pick, flashed on 378 snaps as a rookie, grading out above average. He’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a strong blocker in-line with some pass catching abilities.

Maxx Williams, meanwhile, will be the “move” tight end and will handle most of the pass catching duties from the tight end position. He’s only a 2^nd round rookie, but was widely considered the top tight end in the draft class and a steal at the end of the 2^nd round. Overall though, it’s a bad mix of really young and really old in the receiving corps for the Ravens. With Gary Kubiak gone, Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett likely regressing in terms of their production, and a thin receiving corps, the Ravens’ offense probably won’t be as good in 2015 as it was in 2014, but they should still be a lot better than they were in 2013.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

It wasn’t just the Ravens’ offense that was good in 2014. They also ranked 8^th in rate of moving the chains differential allowed, which is why they ranked 3^rd in rate of moving the chains differential, better than their record. That showed in the playoffs, as they went into Pittsburgh and won and almost beat New England in Foxboro. However, as is the case on offense, the Ravens suffered losses defensively this off-season, as result of their cap situation.

The biggest defensive loss, at least in terms of size, was defensive lineman Haloti Ngata, who the Ravens traded to the Lions for a 4^th and 5^th round pick, in order to free up 8.5 million in cap space. Considering his cap number and his contract situation (going into an age 31 contract year), it was a good return for the Ravens, but he’ll definitely be missed. A versatile player who could play anywhere on the Ravens’ 3-man defensive line, Ngata graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007.

The Ravens will be counting on a pair of talented youngsters to play bigger roles this season to make up for the loss of Ngata and move this perennially dominant Ravens’ defense into the next generation. Those two players are Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan. Williams actually played more snaps than Ngata last season (569 vs. 546). The big nose tackle probably won’t be able to play much more than 600 snaps maximum and he isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked defensive tackle last season, including 4^th as a run stopper. The 2013 3^rd round pick also flashed on 93 snaps as a rookie and has some young Haloti Ngata like abilities at 6-1 335, though he’s not quite as versatile.

Jernigan, meanwhile, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, as a 2^nd round rookie. That’s especially impressive because he did that on only 312 snaps, with no one grading out better than him and playing fewer snaps. The 6-2 300 pounder has the most to gain from Ngata leaving in terms of extra snaps because he and Ngata play similar positions. In his 2^nd year in the league in 2015, Jernigan could easily have a breakout year on 600 or so snaps and end the season as one of the top few 3-4 defensive ends. That’s obviously not a guarantee though, as he’s still unproven, especially at a higher snap volume.

Chris Canty remains as the 3^rd starter, but he was actually cut this off-season by the Ravens, before returning on a cheaper deal (4.65 million over 2 years). He’s not completely washed up and drew some interest on the open market, but there’s still a reason why they originally cut him. Canty is going into his age 33 season and played just 360 snaps last season because he missed 5 games with injury. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s missed 13 games. He graded out above average as recently as 2013, but he graded out below average last season and his days of being even an average starter are probably gone. He’ll primarily play in base packages this season, as he really struggled as a pass rusher last year.

He’ll be pushed for snaps immediately by 3^rd round rookie Carl Davis, a 6-5 320 pounder who will play a significant rotational role either way. DeAngelo Tyson also remains as a reserve. The 2012 7^th round pick has played a combined 722 snaps in 3 seasons with the Ravens in that role, but he’s graded out below average in all 3 seasons. Brent Urban, a 2014 4^th round pick who missed his entire rookie year with injury, could push Tyson for that reserve role.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Haloti Ngata wasn’t their only defensive loss this off-season, as they also lost Pernell McPhee, who signed a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Bears this off-season. McPhee was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season, despite being a part-time player, playing 540 snaps. On 331 pass rush snaps, he had 8 sacks, 21 hits (2^nd in the NFL behind JJ Watt), and 35 hurries. He could flourish as an every down player in Chicago this season and he’ll definitely be missed in Baltimore.

However, the Ravens still have a ton of depth at the position. McPhee, as efficient as he was on a per snap basis, was still 4^th on the team in snaps played among players who play at outside linebackers in base packages. The depth and versatility he provided, especially on passing downs, will definitely be missed, as he could rush the passer at a high level from the outside linebacker, defensive end, and defensive tackle positions at 6-3 278, but the Ravens still have a lot at the position.

Courtney Upshaw will be the starter in base packages on one side. The 2012 2^nd round pick has been in that role for 3 straight years. He’s not much of a pass rusher, grading out below average in that aspect in all 3 years, but he’s graded out above average as a run stopper in 2 of the 3 years and made strides in coverage last season, grading out above average in that aspect. He essentially plays the old Jarret Johnson role in Baltimore’s defense and has the same responsibilities as a two-down 4-3 outside linebacker, so his inability to rush the passer is minimized.

Elvis Dumervil handles all of the pass rush duties when Upshaw comes off the field and he’s fantastic in that role. Dumervil spent the early part of his career in Denver, but he wasn’t really used properly there, as he was an every down player. Dumervil had some great years rushing the passer, grading out 4^th in pass rush grade among 4-3 defensive ends in 2007 and 4^th in pass rush grade among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2009. However, he graded out below average against the run in every season in Denver, which caused him to grade out below average overall in 2008, 2011, and 2012 (he missed all of 2010 with injury) and led to the Broncos making him a cap casualty after the 2012 season.

In Baltimore, he’s only been a part-time player, playing primarily in obvious passing situations, which has maximized his talents. While the 5-11 250 pounder is really weak against the run, he’s a force off the edge in obvious passing situations. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 (1^st in pass rush grade) and 6^th in 2014 (2^nd in pass rush grade). He’s getting up there, going into his age 31 season, but he should have enough strong year.

Terrell Suggs will continue to play every down on the other side, but he too is getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season. However, Suggs is also coming off of a dominant year and has a good chance to have another strong year. Suggs was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, which is pretty par for the course for him. He ranked 9^th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013, 3^rd among 4-3 defensive ends in 2011, and 8^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2010, with an injury plagued 2012 season in between. Behind Suggs, Dumervil, and Courtney Upshaw is 4^th round rookie Za’Darius Smith, who will see limited snaps. The position is weakened with Dumervil and Suggs aging and McPhee gone, but they still have plenty of talent off the edge.

The Ravens also have a pair of talented linebackers inside as well. Daryl Smith is another one of the cheap, smart free agent signings that Ozzie Newsome has made over the past few off-seasons. Smith came cheap two off-seasons ago because he was limited to 2 games by injury in 2012 and because he was going into his 30s. However, Smith was a dominant player before the injury, grading out 1^st, 8^th, and 2^nd among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Smith has basically picked up where he left off before the injury since joining the Ravens and moving inside in their 3-4. Ray Lewis’ replacement, Smith looked like a steal on a cheap one-year deal in 2013, grading out 14^th among middle linebackers and earning a 4-year, 16.1 million deal last off-season.

Smith continued to be a value for the Ravens in 2014, grading out 7^th at his position in 2014. Like Suggs, he’s going into his age 33 season so it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep this up, but he should have another solid year in him. Conversely, fellow starting inside linebacker CJ Mosley is coming off of only his rookie year, but he too is coming off of a strong year. Mosley graded out 10^th at his position as a rookie and the 2014 1^st round pick has a bright future and looks like a big part of the next generation of this perennially dominant defense. He rounds out what is still one of the better front 7s in the NFL.

Grade: A

Secondary

Last year, the Ravens had arguably the best front 7 in football, which carried their defense to a strong season, despite major issues in the secondary. Their front 7 isn’t quite as good this season thanks to the loss of McPhee, Ngata, and a couple guys getting older, though they have some young studs who can continue improving, so they will need the secondary to be better this season. That’s at the very least a strong possibility.

Things were so bad at cornerback for the Ravens last season that Rashaan Melvin, a 2013 undrafted free agent who was signed mid-season and made his NFL debut week 15, drew the start for them in the playoffs. They failed to replace Corey Graham, a valuable 3^rd cornerback, who signed with the Bills in free agency, going into the season with Asa Jackson, a 2012 5^th round pick who had never played a snap in the NFL going into 2014, as their 3^rd cornerback. He predictably struggled, grading out 99^th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks on 335 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out worse at the position, in 7 games in an injury plagued season.

When Jimmy Smith went down with injury, that’s when things really got bad at cornerback for the Ravens, with the likes of Rashaan Melvin, Dominique Franks, Anthony Levine, Danny Gorrer, Matt Elam, and Chykie Brown all having to play roles down the stretch for this team at cornerback. Smith graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked cornerback despite missing the final 8 games of the season on injured reserve with a foot injury. Through the first 7 games of the season before getting hurt, he was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback, including 4th in pure coverage grade, allowing 51.3% completion and 4.18 yards per attempt on 39 attempts.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can be that dominant of a cornerback for a whole season, but the Ravens clearly believe he can, giving him a 4-year, 41 million dollar extension this off-season. It’s a risky deal that doesn’t appear to have much upside. It makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the NFL and he is unlikely to exceed that contract value, even if he does continue playing well. The bad news is that his play during that stretch is inconsistent with his past history, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked cornerback in 2012 and their 35^th ranked cornerback in 2013. The good news is that he’s a former 1^st round pick (2011), who has improved in every season as a starter and could easily have a strong, full season in his age 27 season in 2015. Either way, there’s no question his return will improve this secondary, as long as he doesn’t get hurt again (he’s missed 17 games in 4 seasons in the league).

The Ravens also added depth at cornerback this off-season, signing Kyle Arrington to a 3-year, 7.5 million dollar deal. The Patriots cut Kyle Arrington, voiding the 6.5 million in non-guaranteed money over 2 years remaining on his contract. It was a weird move, as Arrington was a valuable slot cornerback for them, grading out above average in 4 straight seasons, including 21st in 2013, and the Patriots had already lost their starting cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner this off-season. Perhaps they thought they could re-sign him a little cheaper, but the Ravens didn’t let that happen. The Patriots’ loss is the Ravens’ gain as Kyle Arrington filled arguably their biggest remaining need and at a reasonable price. With little cap space to work with, the Ravens were right to focus their energy on the cornerback position this off-season.

The Ravens had an option to release cornerback Lardarius Webb to save cap space. Cutting him would have only saved them 2 million in cap space immediately because of the way his contract was structured, but he would have been off their cap completely for 2016. The other option would have been to designate him as a post-June 1^st cut, freeing up more cap space this season, allowing them a little bit more freedom in free agency, knowing that they’d have cap space opening up on June 1^st that they could use to sign their rookie class, but he still would have been on their cap for 2016.

The Ravens ultimately decided to keep him, after he agreed to a 2.5 million dollar pay cut, which might have been their best option. They save 2.5 million in cap space immediately this season. He’s still on their cap for 2016, even if they cut him next off-season, but they also have him on the roster for 2015 and he’s a candidate for a bounce back year. Webb was given a 6-year, 52.742 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2011. However, Webb tore his ACL in 2012, seemed to bounce back in 2013, grading out 19th, but regressed mightily in 2014, grading out 78th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks, thanks largely to a bad back. Last year was the first season that the 2009 3^rd round pick had graded out below average in his career, so it could be seen as a fluke, but he’s also going into his age 30 season with a significant injury history so a bounce back is hardly a guarantee.

At safety, the Ravens lost Darian Stewart as a free agent this off-season, after he made 14 starts and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked safety last season. However, they replaced him with a comparable player at a reasonable price, signing Kendrick Lewis to a 3-year, 5.4 million dollar deal. Lewis was a mere 5^th round pick in 2010 by the Chiefs, but he’s made 67 starts in 5 seasons in the league, grading out above average 3 times. Last season, he made all 16 starts for the Texans and was Pro Football Focus’ 39^th ranked safety.

At the other spot, it’ll likely be Will Hill, who was signed by the Ravens last off-season, which, like the Lewis signing, was another, smart, cheap signing by the Ravens. Hill has a very interesting career story. A 5-star recruit who was a top-10 recruit according to Rivals, Scout, and ESPN, Hill went undrafted out of Florida in 2012 because of a variety of off-the-field problems, including substance abuse issues. Hill was snatched up by the Giants as an undrafted free agent, but the Giants grew tired of him after 2 seasons and 3 substance abuse related suspensions and cut him last off-season.

The Ravens snatched him up and, after his suspension, he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked safety on just 584 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. He started the final 8 games of the regular season, helping to stabilize their back end despite major issues at cornerback, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked safety from week 9 on. Whenever he’s been on the field in his career, he’s been fantastic. In 2013, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked safety on 787 snaps and was #1 at his position from week 5 on, after serving a four game suspension. He also graded out above average on 218 snaps as a reserve as a rookie in 2012.

The issue has just been staying on the field. He says he’s cleaned up his act and looks poised for a suspension free season and could breakout as one of the best safeties in the game, though, given his history, that’s obviously no guarantee. If he can stay out of trouble, between him, Kyle Arrington coming in as a free agent, and Jimmy Smith returning from injury, the Ravens should have a significantly improved secondary in 2015.

The Ravens also have Matt Elam, a 2013 1^st round pick, at safety. He’s technically a candidate to start, but, like much of the first round of that terrible draft class, he’s been a bust thus far in his career and would not be able to win a fair competition against either Lewis or Hill. Elam made 16 starts as a rookie in 2013, but graded out 58^th among 86 eligible safeties. He actually made the first 8 starts of the season in 2014 before rightfully losing his starting job to Hill and moving to cornerback for the remainder of the season.

At safety, Elam graded out 78^th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2014 despite playing just 439 snaps. No one graded out worse at the position and played fewer snaps and he was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked safety through the first 8 weeks of the season. Right now, he only provides value because of his versatility to step in at either safety or slot cornerback in case of an injury. Between Elam and their 2^nd round pick in 2013 Arthur Brown, who is stuck behind both Daryl Smith and CJ Mosley at middle linebacker, the Ravens don’t figure to get much of anything from their top-2 picks in 2013 this season. However, that was a terrible draft for a lot of teams, especially early, and getting Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner in the 3^rd and 5^th rounds of that draft respectively makes up for their early round mistakes.

Grade: B

Overall

The Ravens lost a lot this off-season (Torrey Smith, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee to name a few), as a result of their cap situation. However, they’ve also drafted well recently, adding Ricky Wagner, Kelechi Osemele, CJ Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams through the draft from 2012-2014. Between those 5 and Will Hill, who is still on a rookie deal, the Ravens have 6 impact players still on rookie deals. Add in a rookie class of Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, and Carl Davis in the first 3 rounds this year, widely regarded as a strong haul, and they have enough cheap, young talent to make up for some of the bigger contracts they have on their cap. They might not be quite as good as they were last season, but they were also better than their record last season. This is still a very talented team that will be in contention again this year. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Ravens after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 11-5 1st in AFC North

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Oakland Raiders 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Since losing the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have been the worst team in the NFL, record wise. Over the past 12 seasons, the Raiders are 56-136 with no winning seasons and just two seasons of more than 5 wins. It’s easy to point to the quarterback position as the reason why. They’ve certainly had other problems, but it’s very hard to win games when your quarterbacks play as badly as the Raiders’ have over the past dozen years. They’ve completed just 56.3% of their passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 191 touchdowns, and 203 interceptions over that time period. Their best quarterbacked season in terms of quarterback rating over that time period (among quarterbacks who threw at least 100 passes in a season), was by Carson Palmer, who completed 61.1% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 2012.

So it’s safe to say the Raiders and their fans are the NFL equivalent of a really drunk guy in the bar at 3 am who will go home with anything, as far as the quarterback position is concerned. And he sees her, a 3.5, and he’s overjoyed. That’s Derek Carr. There are a lot of reasons to like Carr. He was their first quarterback to start all 16 games in 12 years last season, as a 2^nd round rookie. He’s young, only going into his 2^nd season in the league, an age 24 season. The organization seems to like him as he’s gone through 2 coaching changes in his short career thus far (Dennis Allen to Tony Sparano to Jack Del Rio) and there hasn’t been any doubt about him keeping his job since he first got it, even after he started last season 0-10. His 21 touchdowns last season were the 2^nd most in a season by a Raider quarterback since 2003 (behind 2012 Palmer).

However, he really didn’t play well. He graded out 38^th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks last season on Pro Football Focus and led an offense that ranked dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, both regular and schedule adjusted. His 21 touchdowns were nice, but the offense itself only scored 26 touchdowns so Carr was more of a touchdown hog than someone who was consistently quarterbacking long touchdown drives. He kept interceptions down to 12, which is nice, but his completion percentage and YPA average, which tell more about what happens on every pass, were really bad. His 58.1 completion percentage was 6^th worst among eligible quarterbacks, and his 5.46 YPA average was dead last in the NFL. No other eligible quarterback was even under 6 YPA.

Over the past 10 years, quarterbacks who average less than 6 YPA have a combined 112-323-1 record. Among quarterbacks who have averaged 5.5 YPA or fewer in a season over the past decade, Carr is the only one who managed to do that and still start all 16 games and one of 6 quarterbacks to start 10+ games. The other 5 combined to make 26 starts the following season. A quarterback struggling as much as Carr did last season and not getting any competition for his job is virtually unprecedented in the modern era of passing offenses and a testament to Oakland’s utter desperation at the quarterback position over the past 12 seasons.

Carr is still young, so he could be better in his 2nd season in the league in 2015. However, he’d have to improve significantly to get above that 6 YPA mark. That’s a difference of 324 yards over 599 pass attempts. On top of that, there’s no guarantee Carr really ever turns it around, given the history of quarterbacks drafted outside of the 1^st round of the draft. Recent successes of Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson as quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round are the exception to the rule.

Of the 29 quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd-3rd round from 2000-2011, only three of them have ever made a Pro-Bowl. After Drew Brees, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub, the next best quarterbacks in terms of career QB rating include the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Tarvaris Jackson, Josh McCown, Kevin Kolb, and Chad Henne. For every Wilson, Dalton, or Kaepernick, there are at least three Andrew Walters, David Greenes, Jimmy Clausens, and Drew Stantons. Quarterbacks are so valuable in the NFL that if you have the baseline abilities to be a starter, you almost never fall out of the 1st round. If you fall out of the first round, there’s usually a good reason for it.

If Carr continues to struggle, the Raiders don’t really have another option they could turn to even if they wanted to (which they likely won’t, even if Carr doesn’t improve). Christian Ponder was signed this off-season to be and, unlike Matt Schaub last season, who was paid well and who was at least at one point seen as a starting option for the Raiders, Ponder is a true backup. Ponder will make just 2.25 million this season and has played in just 11 games in 2 seasons since a disastrous 2012 season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 34^th ranked quarterback out of 38 eligible (the fact that the 2012 Vikings made the playoffs with Ponder at quarterback is insane and a testament to Adrian Peterson’s incredible year). The 2011 1st round pick has completed 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.30 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in his career.

Grade: D

Receiving Corps

If the Raiders’ offense improves significantly this season, it’ll be because the Raiders upgraded Carr’s supporting cast. Armed with a fair amount of cap space and the 4^th overall pick in the draft, the Raiders’ biggest signing and their top pick were both on the offensive side of the ball. Amari Cooper, one of the top wide receiver prospects of the past few years, was the selection 4^th overall, after the Raiders struck out on both Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin in free agency. Cooper instantly becomes the top receiver in a receiving corps that had just one wide receiver or tight end grade out above average on Pro Football Focus last season.

However, anyone expecting him to have a huge statistical year based on what guys like Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, and Kelvin Benjamin did last year is short sighted. Sure, it’s easier to pass the football than it’s ever been in the NFL, but last year’s rookie receiver class was arguably the best ever and historically it’s not realistic to expect a receiver to come into the NFL and put up 1000+ yards as a rookie. Only 11 rookie wideouts have done so in the last 20 years and three of those were last season.

Even in the golden era of passing offenses in the past 10 years, the average first round rookie wideout has averaged just 48 catches for 703 yards and 4 touchdowns. Transitioning from being a collegiate receiver to an NFL receiver is really tough, even for the most talented of players. Now, Cooper isn’t the average first round rookie wideout, but he’s far from a lock for 1000+ yards as a rookie or even 800+ yards, as he’ll also be limited by poor quarterback play. He’ll definitely help this offense right away, but the Raiders won’t suddenly become a significantly more effective offense just because Cooper is in town.

After Cooper on the depth chart, things are unclear and talent is limited. Michael Crabtree was signed in free agency. Given his 3 million dollar salary and his history of being a starter in San Francisco (since he entered the league in 2009), he seems like the most likely one to start opposite Cooper. The problem is he isn’t as good as he used to be, thanks to a May 2013 torn Achilles that seems to have derailed his career. There’s a reason he drew such limited interest on the open market, settling for a 1-year deal after expecting multi-year deals in the range of what Torrey Smith, who replaced him in San Francisco, ended up getting (5 years, 40 million).

Crabtree was great in 2012, finally living up to expectations as the 10^th overall pick in 2009. He caught 85 passes for 1105 yards and 9 touchdowns on 118 targets (72.0%) and 433 routes run (an average of 2.55 yards per route run) that season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver. He was even better down the stretch that season, catching 61 passes for 880 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 10 games, including playoffs. That’s 98 catches for 1408 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games.

Then came that torn Achilles. He caught just 19 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown in 5 games in 2013 (34 catches for 487 yards and a touchdown in 8 games if you count playoffs) and then was even worse on a per game basis in 2014. He played all 16 games, but caught just 68 passes for 698 yards and 4 touchdowns on 102 targets (66.7%) and 474 routes run (1.47 yards per route run). His per game yardage numbers in 2014 were the worst of his career and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. 2012 remains his only 1000+ yard season and he’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 3 of 6 seasons, including each of the last 2 seasons. There’s some bounce back potential, but he looks like a marginal starter right now, especially after largely drawing crickets in free agency, as teams generally felt his explosiveness was permanently gone.

The Raiders do have solid depth at the position as Brice Butler, Andre Holmes, and Rod Streater will compete for the #3 job. None of those players are great, but you could do a lot worse than those as your #3, #4, and #5 guys (in some order). Holmes was actually leading their leading receiver last year with 47 catches for 693 yards and 4 touchdowns and he seems like the obvious favorite for the #3 role for that reason. Holmes, a 2011 undrafted free agent, flashed in his first career action in 2013, grading out above average on 393 snaps and catching 22 passes for 366 yards and 1 touchdown in his final 5 games. However, he couldn’t translate that to a full season in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 91^st ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. Just a situational deep threat, Holmes caught 51.6% of targets in 2014.

Streater is a little bit more proven. Also a former undrafted free agent (2012), Streater caught 60 passes for 888 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2013, grading out above average, after grading out below average as a rookie. Unfortunately, he broke his foot in 2014 and was limited to just 9 catches in 3 games. If he’s healthy, he should be able to push Holmes for that #3 job. It’s also possible that the Raiders trade one of them for a late round pick, as both are heading into contract years. Brice Butler is also in the mix. The 2013 7^th round pick graded out below average as a rookie, but flashed last season and actually was the only Raider wide receiver or tight end to grade out above average last season, albeit on just 278 snaps. He’ll probably get a bigger role in 2016 and beyond with Holmes, Streater, and Crabtree all scheduled for free agency next off-season.

Things aren’t good at tight end either. Mychal Rivera, a 2013 6^th round pick, was completely overmatched as the starting tight end last season, both as a run blocker and a pass catcher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66^th ranked tight end out of 67 eligible. He was better as a rookie, but in more limited action and he was only a 6^th round pick so it’s very possible that he’ll never develop into anything more than a depth player. He could easily be pushed for the starting job by 3^rd round rookie Clive Walford, which should say a lot about how much Rivera struggled last season.

Lee Smith will be in the mix for snaps as well, after he was brought in during free agency. The 6-6 269 pounder is a powerful run blocker, but has just 20 catches for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns in 4 seasons in the league since getting drafted in the 5^th round in 2011. The Raiders gave him a 3-year, 9.1 million dollar deal this off-season, which suggests they really value his skill set, but he’s not the type of guy who will be in the mix for a significant role or a starting job because of how limited of a player he is. It’s an improved receiving corps overall from last season, but they won’t provide Carr a ton of help.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

While the Raiders struck out on Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb this off-season, they were able to land a big-time free agent on their offensive line, signing Rodney Hudson to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal that was at the time the richest deal ever for a center in NFL history. He doesn’t quite deserve it, but he’s a very good player and the Raiders had both the cap space and the need to overpay him. He’ll replace Stefen Wisniewski, an average starting center who signed a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in Jacksonville this off-season. Wisniewski was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked center out of 41^st eligible last season as he dealt with a bad shoulder.

Hudson will be a significant upgrade on him. A 2011 2nd round pick, he flashed on 136 snaps in various positions as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, before moving to center full-time in 2012. However, Hudson played just 3 games that year before going down for the season, though he showed well when healthy. Since then, he’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, grading out 17^th among centers in 2013 and 3rd in 2014. He’s a solid player and one of the better centers in the game, though still someone I would rank behind the likes of Nick Mangold, Jason Kelce, Alex Mack, and possibly Ryan Kalil and Max Unger.

Austin Howard was the Raiders’ big off-season signing on the offensive line last off-season, as they brought him over from the Jets on a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal. Howard was a solid starter in New York in 2012 and 2013, making all 32 starts and grading out 32^nd and 47^th respectively among offensive tackles in 2013 and 2014. However, the Raiders made the asinine decision to move him inside to guard even though he’s not a natural fit for the interior at 6-7 333 and it really didn’t pay off, as he graded out 59th out of 78 eligible guards.

He’s expected to move back to right tackle this season, in an effort to get his career turned back around. Right tackle is another spot where the Raiders had a lot of issues last season. Splitting time, Khalif Barnes and Menelik Watson graded out 58^th and 71^st respectively out of 84 eligible offensive tackles last season. Howard should be an upgrade. The issue is the Raiders didn’t really find an upgrade at the right guard spot, so the veteran Barnes is currently penciled in as the starter there. Barnes has graded out below average in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, including 62^nd out of 81 eligible guards in 2013. Going into his age 33 season, Barnes is not a starting caliber player, but the Raiders don’t really have much of another option. 4^th round rookie Jon Feliciano is more of an option in 2016 and beyond.

Things are better on the left side of the line than the right. While the Raiders are hoping they struck gold in the middle rounds with Feliciano on the right side, they actually did strike gold in the middle rounds last year on the left side with Gabe Jackson, a 2014 3^rd round pick who made 12 starts and graded out above average as a rookie. A better pass protector than run blocker, Jackson is one of the few young building blocks the Raiders have right now. He’s obviously only a one year wonder, but he should continue being a solid starter in 2015 and beyond.

The Raiders also got strong play at left tackle as veteran Donald Penn had a vintage year, grading out 7^th among offensive tackles. Penn has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus, but appeared to be on the decline in 2013, which is why the Buccaneers cut him and replaced him with the younger Anthony Collins, who flopped mightily in his first and only season in Tampa Bay and got cut this off-season. The Buccaneers’ loss was the Raiders’ gain. Penn is going into his age 32 season and has a history of weight problems so I don’t expect him to play quite as well as he did last season, which was arguably the best season of his career, but he should once again be a strong blindside protector. With Penn, Jackson, and Hudson, the Raiders have a solid offensive line, but their issues on the right side can’t be ignored.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One player the Raiders are really hoping can give their offense a boost this season is running back Latavius Murray. It’s easy to see why. The Raiders averaged 3.68 yards per carry last season, 27^th in the NFL, but Murray averaged 5.17 yards per carry on his 84 carries. The 2013 6^th round pick had incredible measurables, running a 4.38 at his Pro Day (he wasn’t invited to the combine) at 6-2 223. However, upon further examination, Murray was not as good as that average suggested.

Murray’s signature moment last season was a 90 yard carry against Kansas City, but that’s just what happened on one snap. Excluding that run, Murray averaged just 4.12 yards per carry. I’m not trying to discount that impressive run, but it is an outlier. You can’t expect him to have one carry of 90+ yards every 84 carries. Murray had that carry in his first NFL start against Kansas City, but ended up leaving that game with a concussion and missing the next game, so he finished that game with 112 yards on 4 carries, which is obviously impressive.

However, when he regained his starting job upon his return, Murray struggled as an every down back. He rushed for just 258 yards on 68 carries (an average of 3.79 YPC) and added 11 catches for 108 yards, while grading out below average on the season. The Raiders also didn’t exactly see a boost in offensive performance in the final 4 games of the season. While they went 2-2 in those 4 games, their offense only moved the chains at a 61.21% rate, which is actually worse than their overall rate on the season.

There are a number of factors at play obviously and he certainly shouldn’t be blamed for their offense being slightly worse in the final 4 games, but it’s important to note. I still expect him to be better than the likes of Darren McFadden (3.45 YPC) and Maurice Jones-Drew (2.23 YPC) were last season, especially since the Raiders figure to be a better run blocking team this season, but it’s really important to temper expectations with this kid and remember that he’s a former 6^th round pick with an injury history (he missed all of 2013 with injury) who is unproven beyond one carry and struggled as the feature back down the stretch last season. Anyone expecting him to carry this offense out of the cellar isn’t looking at the bigger picture.

The Raiders didn’t do a whole lot this off-season in the way of adding competition for him. While they were loosely linked to the likes of DeMarco Murray and Adrian Peterson this off-season, they ended up settling for guys like Roy Helu and Trent Richardson. The Helu signing I liked, as I thought he was a great value at 4 million over 2 years. Roy Helu only has 255 carries in 4 seasons since the Redskins drafted him in the 4th round in 2011, but he’s averaged 4.44 yards per carry and where he really provides value is as a 3rd down back. In 48 career games, Helu has 129 catches for 1152 yards and 3 touchdowns and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back in 2 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, extremely valuable in today’s NFL. He’ll complement the young Murray well as a passing down back and I hope that, if Murray struggles as the feature back to start the season, Helu is given more early down chances.

The Trent Richardson signing I’m less excited about, but the Raiders only guaranteed him a 600K signing bonus, so it wasn’t a bad signing, as the Raiders are taking a chance on a guy who was the 3^rd overall pick in 2012. However, Richardson has been a disaster thus far in his career. He had what seemed like a promising rookie year in Cleveland in 2012, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus, catching 51 passes and scoring 11 touchdowns on a bad Browns team. He averaged just 3.56 yards per carry and 7.20 yards per catch, but he had 59 broken tackles on 318 touches and averaged 2.09 yards per carry after contact, giving him the #7 elusive rating among eligible running backs, so it was easy to blame his offensive line for his lack of efficiency.

Unfortunately, things never got better for Richardson. He was traded for a 1^st round pick to the Colts early in 2013. Many thought the Browns were selling low and getting rid of a #3 overall pick too soon, but it turns out they were selling high on a guy whose stock was about to plummet. Trent Richardson’s tenure with the Colts went about as bad as it could have. After they acquired him mid-season in 2013 for what turned out to be the 26th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Richardson rushed for 977 yards and 6 touchdowns on 316 carries (3.09 YPC) in his 2 years with the Colts.

He also has had issues with the coaching staff, which got him suspended by the team for their playoff game against New England and the first week of next season (he’ll be eligible to play week 1 for the Raiders though because it was a team suspension not a league suspension). Even though his salary was guaranteed for 2015, the Colts still cut him, as they didn’t see him as being worth their 53 man roster. Richardson has still great strength and toughness and breaks a ton of tackles (162 on 727 touches), but he has a career 3.31 YPC average as a result of his absolute lack of burst and his embarrassingly poor ability to find holes. He can break tackles and run through contact, but his playing style is way too inviting to contact behind the line of scrimmage. Between that and his issues with coaches in Indianapolis, I don’t have a lot of hope for the Trent Richardson era in Oakland. I expect the Raiders to struggle to run the football and overall move the football once again this season.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Raiders’ offense was terrible last season, their defense wasn’t bad, as they ranked 16^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their offense was so bad that it was hard to tell they had a solid defense, as their defense was 6^th in time on the field. Their offense was also the reason they went 3-13 and ranked dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a solid defense. It was really one player on defense who elevated their level of play. Of 13 Oakland defenders to play more than 400 snaps this season, only two of them graded out positively, veteran Justin Tuck, who was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked 4-3 defensive end, and Khalil Mack, the 5th overall pick in 2014 and someone I argued should have been Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Mack was technically a 4-3 outside linebacker last season, ranking #1 at his position, but he did his most important work rushing the passer off the edge of the defensive line in sub packages, playing the Von Miller role. Interestingly enough, Miller ranked #1 among 4-3 outside linebackers, one spot ahead of Von Miller, who had his 3-year reign as the top 4-3 outside linebacker snapped by the rookie Mack last season, a reign that had dated back to Miller’s rookie year in 2011. If Mack keeps this up, the hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role in a 4-3 might have to be renamed the Khalil Mack role, rather than the Von Miller role, especially with Miller switching to 3-4 outside linebacker in Denver’s new defense. Along with fellow rookie, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, Mack was the first rookie to grade out #1 at his position on either side of the ball since Miller did so in 2011.

Mack only had 4 sacks on the season, but his pass rush numbers were better than his sack totals as he also managed 10 hits and 40 hurries. That still means his pass rush productivity was significantly worse than Miller’s, as Miller had 15 sacks, 11 hits, and 47 hurries, giving him a pass rush productivity of 11.8, while Mack was at 9.1. However, Miller had the luxury of playing with a lot of leads on a Peyton Manning quarterbacked team, giving him more easy pass rush situations. Mack also was significantly better than Miller as a run stopper.

Besides, any time you’re the best player on a competent defense despite your only good teammate being Justin Tuck, you’re doing something right. Mack should once again have a strong season in his 2^nd season in the league, especially now that Jack Del Rio, Miller’s defensive coordinator in Denver from 2011-2013, is the head coach. He might not be quite as good, but it’s clear he’s one of the top few defensive players in the game. It’ll be up to the rest of the defense to improve around him.

In base situations, when Mack plays outside linebacker, veteran Justin Tuck and rookie Mario Edwards will be the starters at defensive end. Tuck and Edwards have similar frames (6-5 268 and 6-3 279 respectively), similar games (Tuck is obviously more proven), and will play similar roles this season. Both player are base 4-3 defensive ends who can rush the passer from the inside, which opens up room for Mack to rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. Tuck, as I mentioned, was the 2^nd best player on this defense last season, grading out 17^th among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s going into his age 32 season so he’s hard to trust going forward. He should have one more solid year in the tank, good news for the Raiders as he’s going into his contract year, but there are no guarantees.

Both Tuck and Edwards will some sub packages outside, but the likes of Sio Moore and Ben Mayowa will also see a fair amount of sub package edge rush snaps. Mayowa, a 2013 undrafted free agent, has played 394 snaps in 2 seasons in the NFL, 370 of which were last season in a similar role. He had 235 pass rush snaps, but struggled overall, especially struggling as a pass rusher. Moore, meanwhile, played a similar role to Khalil Mack and Von Miller as a rookie in 2013, playing outside linebacker in base packages and defensive end in sub packages. He graded out 7^th among 4-3 outside linebackers as a rookies, though he struggled as a pass rusher. In 2014, he graded out below average overall and only saw 73 pass rush snaps, but he should see more (in the 100 range) this season.

It’s a good thing that Tuck and Edwards can play defensive tackle in sub packages because the Raiders don’t have a lot of depth at that position. Antonio Smith and Pat Sims were 1^st and 3^rd among defensive tackles in snaps played last season, playing 791 and 429 respectively. Both graded out below average last season and now are gone. Justin Ellis, who played 635 snaps last season, remains. The 2014 4^th round pick graded out below average on Pro Football Focus last season, but the Raiders really like him long-term and there’s a chance he improves going forward.

Dan Williams was brought in to replace Sims. Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps. On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season.

They didn’t really bring in a replacement for Antonio Smith, so Stacy McGee will be the 3^rd defensive tackle this season. McGee struggled mightily as a 6^th round rookie in 2013, grading out 59^th out of 69 eligible defensive tackles on just 354 snaps. He played just 120 snaps in 2014, but he still struggled mightily. He’s still young, but he’s only a former 6^th round pick so there’s a good chance he never improves. He’s not someone who you want playing a significant role on your defensive line. However, the Raiders do have a strong defensive front overall, especially when Mack is rushing off the edge.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, in base packages Sio Moore and Khalil Mack will be the starters at outside linebacker. In sub packages, Mack will move to the defensive line. Moore might also play on the defensive end in sub packages, as he did as a rookie. That’s because the Raiders brought in Malcolm Smith as a free agent and he can play outside linebacker in sub packages. Malcolm Smith, the ex-Seahawk, follows his former linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr. to Oakland, where he is now the defensive coordinator.

Malcolm Smith was Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 48, one of the more anonymous Super Bowl MVP’s in NFL history. Smith played a good game, but there were more deserving candidates, as Smith didn’t even play half the snaps in that game (34 of 71). He just happened to make a few splash plays that we remember. Smith also wasn’t even a starter that season, playing just 490 snaps. He was still Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker that season, despite the limited action, with no one playing more snaps and grading out better. However, he’s still graded out above average in just 2 of 4 seasons and he’s only once played more than 286 snaps in a season. Last season, he graded out 36^th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers on just 286 snaps, with no one else playing fewer snaps and grading worse. A coverage athlete at 6-0 226, Smith will probably play outside in sub packages.

The only player who is expected to play all three downs at linebacker is Curtis Lofton, which isn’t good because he’s really struggled over the past few years. Lofton was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked middle linebacker in 2011 in the final year of his rookie deal with the Falcons, which landed him a 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal from the Saints the following off-season. However, he graded out below average in all 3 seasons with the Saints, with his worst year coming last year, as he graded out 57th out of 60 eligible.

That led to his release, a move that saved the Saints 7.25 million in cash. The Raiders massively overpaid him, giving him a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal. Curtis Lofton finished 4th in the NFL in tackles with 145 last season. Given the size of his new deal, I assume the Raiders didn’t actually watch Lofton play last season and just looked at the tackle stats. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL regardless of position and a lot of his tackles were him cleaning up broken plays after big gains on a New Orleans defense that was arguably the NFL’s worst in 2014. He should be better than Miles Burris, who graded out dead last among middle linebackers last season, but he’s a weak spot on an overall solid front 7.

Grade: B+

Secondary

While the Raiders finished 3-13 last season, they did have a strong draft last year, which is going to be helpful for the future. Even though Carr is overrated, the Raiders did find an absolute stud on defense in the first round in Khalil Mack, a starting left guard in the 3^rd round in Gabe Jackson, and a decent contributor upfront on the defensive line in Justin Ellis. On top of that, they also found a promising young cornerback named TJ Carrie in the 7^th round.

Carrie made 4 starts as a rookie, played 568 snaps, and graded out about average, which is most much than you can expect from a 7^th round rookie. It’s possible that was a flash in the pan and it’s still important to remember that we’re a year removed from the whole league letting him drop to the 7^th round, but he has promise, especially with Ken Norton Jr. coming over from Seattle, where they’ve had a ton of success with big cornerbacks. Carrie has ideal size at 6-0 204.

The Raiders tried more of a veteran approach last season, bringing in the likes of Donald Penn, Justin Tuck, James Jones, Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith last off-season. Woodley, Smith, and Jones all got cut this off-season, while Brown and Rogers left as free agents. Tuck and Penn worked out, but the cost of the other 5 veterans who didn’t work out was they weren’t able to get young talent valuable playing time last season, which hurts this rebuilding project.

The Raiders are going with more of a youth based approach this season, particularly at cornerback. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers played 1000 and 477 snaps respectively last season, grading out below average. Carrie will move into a starting role with those two gone and another young player, DJ Hayden, will be the other starter. Hayden, in contrast to Carrie, was a 1^st round pick, but he’s struggled mightily in 2 seasons in the league since being drafted in 2013. He’s graded out below average in both seasons and he’s also missed 14 games in the two seasons combined. It’s too early to write him off as a bust and he’s a talented player who could turn it around in his 3^rd year in the league, but step number 1 for him will be staying healthy, which is hardly a given. In two years in the league, he’s played just 956 snaps (10 starts) and maxed out at 10 games in a season.

The Raiders will need him to stay healthy because their depth is really suspect. Keith McGill and James Dockery will compete for the #3 job. McGill is a 2014 4^th round pick who played 147 nondescript snaps as a rookie, while James Dockery is a 2011 undrafted free agent who has played 283 snaps in 4 seasons in the league. After those two on the depth chart, it’s a mix of special teamer Taiwan Jones, 7^th round rookie Dexter McDonald, and a bunch of undrafted free agents. The Raiders are hoping that McGill can make a big 2^nd year leap this off-season, but if he doesn’t, they might need to bring in a veteran. Brown and Rogers are both still available, but there’s a reason for that as both are 30+ and coming off of mediocre seasons. Getting even replacement level performance from either of those two should be considered a win.

Things are more established at safety. The Raiders gave veteran Nate Allen a 4-year, 23 million dollar deal. It’s an overpay, but Allen has progressed from being the laughing stock he once was in Philadelphia earlier in his career. It’s certainly a risky move by the Raiders, but if Allen plays like he did last season, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety, he’ll be worth it (or like he did in 2011 when he was 18th at his position). His history can’t be ignored though.

Nate Allen has been a starter with the Eagles for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. Over that period of time, he’s played 74 of a possible 80 games, including 70 starts, but he has been up and down, grading out below average in 3 of 5 seasons and never having back-to-back above average seasons. His worst year came in 2012, when he graded out 84th out of 88 eligible safeties. That being said, his terrible 2012 is more than 2 years ago, he’s coming off a solid season, and he’s an experienced starter, so, all things considered, he should help this team this season.

The other starter is as veteran as it gets as 39-year-old Charles Woodson is entering his 18^th season out of Michigan. Woodson is a veteran Hall-of-Famer who started his career in Oakland, went to Green Bay, and now is back in Oakland as a safety, after spending most of his career at cornerback. He’s shockingly made 32 of 32 starts for the Raiders over the past 2 seasons, the only player at any position who can say that, and the fact that he is still in the league is a testament to the kind of football player he is. However, it’s really tough to count on someone his age. Last season, he graded out 68^th out of 87 eligible safeties and could see his abilities fall off a cliff this season.

If he struggles, the only one the Raiders have to turn to is Brandian Ross, who graded out 85^th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2013 and 55^th out of 87 eligible in 2014. He’s experienced, but he’s also the reason the Raiders brought in Nate Allen this off-season. It’s a weak secondary again for the Raiders overall, but the defense will be once again propped up by a solid front 7. The Raiders will need their offense to step it up though, if they’re going to climb out of the AFC West cellar.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Raiders are getting better, but there’s still not a ton of talent here. The defense should be decent again, but I don’t see the offense stepping it up significantly, even though Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, and Amari Cooper all have some hype around them. Carr struggled mightily as a rookie, Murray is unproven and wasn’t as good as his numbers suggested last year, while Cooper could take a year to breakout as a top level receiver. This team should once again be in the NFL’s cellar. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Raiders after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 3-13 4th in AFC West

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Kansas City Chiefs 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Although the Chiefs missed the playoffs last season, they finished the regular season 9^th in rate of moving the chains differential, including 14^th in rate of moving the chains by their offense. The Chiefs’ offense was able to have a solid offensive season despite infamously not getting a single receiving touchdown from a wide receiver and also having poor play on the offensive line, with just one offensive lineman playing a snap and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus.

How did the Chiefs have success with minimal receiving or offensive line talent? Well, they executed a ball control offense to perfection led by quarterback Alex Smith, feature back Jamaal Charles, and leading receiver, tight end Travis Kelce and orchestrated by head coach Andy Reid and his team of offensive assistants. Smith is the perfect quarterback for this offense and the offense is the perfect system for Smith.

Smith completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions last season, grading out 16^th among eligible quarterbacks, slightly above average. Since Jim Harbaugh turned him career around in 2011, Smith has completed 63.4% of his attempts for an average of 7.01 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. He also graded out 8^th in 2011 on Pro Football Focus, 19^th in 2012, 20^th in 2013, and then 16^th last season.

Smith is limited in his abilities and this offense would be limited even if they had a great offensive line and explosive receivers because of Smith’s below average ability to sit in the bottom and pick apart a defense downfield, but the Chiefs run the ball well and get the ball out of Smith’s hands in 2.44 seconds on average (11^th among eligible quarterbacks), limiting sack chances. The Chiefs did still allow 49 sacks, but that was largely because of the offensive line, as Smith was still pressured on 35.6% of dropbacks, 16^th among eligible quarterbacks, despite the quick release. Smith was also rarely forced to throw downfield as result of their ability to run the football, as 77.2% of Smith’s attempts were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, the highest percent in the NFL. That minimalized the Chiefs’ need for talented receivers, minimalized Smith’s lack of deep ball ability, and minimalized their offensive line’s struggles. Simply put, the Chiefs were able to get the most of their talent offensively last season, as a result of scheme.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As alluded to in the intro, the Chiefs’ strong running game was a huge part of why they were able to have offensive success last season. The Chiefs averaged 4.57 yards per carry last season on 420 carries, 5^th in the NFL, despite an offensive line that ranked 19^th on Pro Football Focus in run blocking grade. That was largely as a result of Jamaal Charles, who averaged 5.01 yards per carry and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked running back in rushing grade.

Charles did that despite dealing with a variety of nagging injuries. Those injuries only caused him to miss 1 game, but that not only limited his effectiveness running the football, but also limited him to just 206 carries, fewest in a non-injury shortened season since 2009. Backup running back Knile Davis, a 2013 3^rd round pick, saw 134 carries and averaged just 3.46 yards per carry, grading out worst at his position on Pro Football Focus. Charles being healthier and being back in that 250+ carry range for the Chiefs will be very helpful this season.

Charles’ career 5.49 yard per carry average is best all time by a running back and he also has 262 catches in 95 career games as well. Excluding an injury shortened 2011 season, Charles has graded out 4^th, 1^st, 16^th, 2^nd, and 13^th on Pro Football Focus among running backs in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. Charles is going into his age 29 season with 1511 career touches, but should have at least one more dominant season left in him, which is obviously great news for Chiefs fans.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

I mentioned earlier that just one Chief offensive lineman graded out above average last season. That was center Rodney Hudson, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked center last season and then promptly signed a then record 5-year, 45 million dollar deal with the division rival Raiders. To replace him, the Chiefs drafted Mitch Morse in the 2^nd round. A collegiate tackle, Morse was a good run blocker, but had issues in pass protection, especially against tougher SEC competition. The Chiefs think they can convert him into a center and maximize his abilities there. It could work out, but any time you’re drafting a collegiate tackle who can’t play professional tackle in the 2^nd round based on the fact that he might be able to play center, it’s a weird pick. At the very least, he looks like a clear downgrade from Hudson.

The Chiefs did add a veteran offensive lineman this off-season to help offset some of the loss of Hudson, trading from Ben Grubbs, previously of the Saints. While Grubbs did grade below average last season and while he is going into his age 31 season, he graded out as a top-16 guard from 2009-2013, so there is some bounce back potential. He’ll slot in at left guard and be an immediate upgrade over the departed Mike McGlynn, who was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard last season in 13 starts at left guard.

Right guard Zach Fulton wasn’t much better, grading out 64^th out of 78 eligible guards in 16 starts at right guard last season. He’s still on the roster, unlike McGlynn, but he’s unlikely to be starting again in 2015. A 2014 6^th round pick forced into action as a rookie, Fulton profiles as a long-term backup at best, as is the case with most 6^th round picks. Jeff Allen is returning from an elbow injury that ended his season 40 snaps into week 1 last year, while Paul Fanaika comes over as a veteran starter from Arizona.

Fanaika looks like the favorite to be the starting right guard, but he’s unlikely to be much of an upgrade from Fulton. Fanaika is a big, physical guard at 6-5 327, but he’s really struggled as a starter over the last 2 seasons in Arizona. After the 2009 7th round pick played no snaps in the first 4 seasons of his career, Fanaika started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, but he wasn’t good, grading out 76th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 71st out of 78 eligible guards in 2014.

Allen wouldn’t be much of an upgrade on Fulton either. A 2012 2^nd round pick, Allen was Pro Football Focus’ 79^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2012 and 60^th out of 81 eligible in 2013, before missing most of last season with injury. Given that the Chiefs gave Fanaika starting money (3 years, 8.1 million), Allen’s best shot at the starting lineup is at right tackle, where he started week 1 of last season and where he’d compete with Donald Stephenson for the starting job. Whoever starts at right tackle, Allen or Stephenson, it figures to be a position of weakness. Stephenson, a 2012 3^rd round pick, graded out 54^th out of 80 eligible offensive tackles on 377 snaps in 2012, 61^st out of 76 eligible on 543 snaps in 2013, and then played just 31 snaps last season as a backup.

The only player who figures to play in the same spot this season as last season is left tackle Eric Fisher. After a 2-14 2012 season, the Chiefs used the #1 overall pick on offensive tackle Eric Fisher. They’ve since had winning seasons in each of the last 2 seasons, but that had way more to do with stabilized quarterback play and stabilized coaching. Fisher himself has actually really struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 70^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013 at right tackle and then 72^nd out of 84 eligible in 2014 at left tackle. It’s too early to call him a bust, but he’s entering a make or break 3^rd season, as the Chiefs would likely look to add another left tackle of the future and move Fisher elsewhere if he struggled on the blindside again. One of the worst offensive lines in football last season has gotten even worse this off-season.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

I mentioned three players as being the keys to the Chiefs’ offense last season: Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and tight end Travis Kelce. While Chief wide receivers struggled, Kelce led the team in receiving, with 67 catches for 862 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s even more impressive when you consider that he played most of last season on a snap count as he was returning from a brutal knee injury that required micro-fracture surgery. Kelce caught 67 of his 81 targets (82.7%) and his 2.13 yards per route run was 2^nd in the NFL among tight ends behind Rob Gronkowski.

Also a strong blocker (1^st among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in that aspect), Kelce was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked tight end overall last season. That was despite playing just 688 snaps, barely more than teammate Anthony Fasano (678 snaps), who graded out 61^st out of 67 eligible tight ends, but kept seeing the field because of Kelce’s knee. Fasano is gone now, leaving just Demetrius Harris behind Kelce on the depth chart. Harris, a 2013 undrafted free agent, has played 70 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, leaving Kelce to be an every down tight end. He could easily top 1000 receiving yards, while providing strong run blocking to help out a poor offensive line. If he can stay healthy, he’ll draw some Gronk-lite comparisons.

The situation at wide receiver isn’t as good. Everyone knows by now that no Chiefs wide receiver caught a touchdown last season, but it wasn’t just that they were being kept out of the end zone. Chief wide receivers combined for just 129 catches for 1588 yards. For comparison, Antonio Brown had 129 catches for 1698 yards by himself and also scored 13 times. Part of their wide receiver issues have to do with Alex Smith’s playing style and his hesitance to throw downfield outside the numbers, but there’s no denying this wide receiver group had a lot of issues last season. Dwayne Bowe had nearly half of their production from the wideout spot in 2014 (60/754/0). He didn’t grade out above average in pass catching grade on Pro Football Focus (only one Chief receiver did), but he was the only Chief receiver to play more than 260 snaps (25.2%).

The Chiefs cut him to save 11 million and put that money to better use, signing Jeremy Maclin to a 5-year, 55 million dollar deal. That’s not to say that they didn’t overpay Maclin, but he’s definitely a better football player than Bowe is at this point in his career. Maclin had a great 2014 season, as he had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver.

However, he’s a one-year wonder. From 2009-2013, he missed 21 games with injury, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. 2014 was also the first season in his career in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He was terrible in 2012, grading out 101st out of 105 eligible. The fact that the Eagles, who had issues at wide receiver at well, were only willing to offer 9 million annually to Maclin is concerning, as is the fact that Maclin never did well before being in Chip Kelly’s scheme last season and now he returns to Andy Reid’s scheme, which he didn’t do that well in from 2009-2012 to start his career.

Couple that with his injury history and his overall past struggles and that wasn’t a very good deal, but he will help their team. His numbers should see a huge hit in the Chiefs’ ball control offense, but he’ll give the Chiefs’ offense more versatility in play calling and style of play. The Chiefs should have more plays of 20+ yards next season as a result, after just 49 last season, among the fewest in the NFL. They had just 41 pass plays of 20+ yards, 30th in the NFL. That type of thing can be tough to predict year to year anyway.

The rest of the Chiefs’ receiving corps is up in the air, much like it was last season behind Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs used a 3^rd round pick on Chris Conley, but that was their only off-season addition at wide receiver other than Maclin. Conley was a weird pick anyway as his skill set doesn’t suit this offense and he was a workout warrior who got overdrafted because of his measurables. DeAnthony Thomas was their only wide receiver to grade out above average last season, as he caught 14 passes on 21 targets (66.7%) for 113 yards on 70 routes run (1.61 yards per route run) and 156 rushing yards on 23 carries. The 5-9 174 2014 4^th round pick is only a slot receiver/scat back whose best case scenario is Dexter McCluster, but he could easily carve out a meaningful role in the slot this season.

Albert Wilson is someone the team likes and he could carve out a role both in the slot and outside. However, he too is very unproven as the 2014 undrafted free agent played just 223 snaps as a rookie, grading out slightly below average. Kelce and Maclin give Alex Smith two solid targets, but after those two it’s uncertainty and inexperience on the depth chart. The likes of Demetrius Harris, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas, and Charles Conley could all see significant roles on this Chiefs’ offense this season. It’ll once again be a Chiefs offense that is good at what they do and nothing else. They should once again be middle of the pack in rate of moving the chains.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

Once again, it’ll be the Chiefs defense that will win them games more so than their offense. The Chiefs had 2^nd fewest adjusted games lost on defense in 2013, part of the reason why many, including myself, expected them to decline defensively in 2014. Injuries struck quickly as Achilles tears knocked out both Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson for the season in week 1 and the Chiefs finished 27^th in adjusted games lost on the season. However, the Chiefs’ defense was able to compensate and still finish 7^th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

DeVito will be back this season in his typical role as a two-down base defensive end in the Chiefs’ 3-4. He might be just a base player, but he’s as good as any pure base player in the NFL, if not better. From 2010-2013, Mike DeVito was one of just two 3-4 defensive ends to grade out in the top-10 at that position on Pro Football Focus in every season and he did it despite playing about half the snaps in all 4 of those seasons. He doesn’t get much pass rush, but he graded out 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 4th in run stopping grade in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. He’s going into age 31 season off of a torn Achilles so he might not be as good, but his return will help this defense. He’s an upgrade over Jaye Howard, who graded out about average on 449 snaps in a similar role last season. Howard will be a pure rotational reserve this season.

Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey will be the every down defensive linemen again. Poe is widely regarded as one of the best defensive linemen in football, ever since the Chiefs drafted the big nose tackle 11^th overall out of Marshall in 2012. However, his play has been inconsistent. While his ability to play every down and consistently lead the defensive line in snaps played (757 in 2012, 1004 in 2013, and 966 in 2014, all most by a Chief defensive lineman) is very impressive, he hasn’t always been great. His 2013 season when he graded out 11^th among defensive tackles was obviously good, but he graded out 76^th out of 85 eligible in 2012 and then 39^th in 2014. Still, the Chiefs made the no brainer move to pick up his option for 2016, which is guaranteed for injury only.

Bailey, meanwhile, got a 4-year, 25 million dollar extension last season. Bailey graded out above average in 2 of 3 seasons as a reserve from 2011-2013, after going in the 3^rd round in 2011, but he graded out below average in his first starting experience in 2014, grading out 33^rd out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. He’s not bad, but he’s a marginal starting caliber player that the Chiefs overpaid like an above average starter.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The biggest reason the Chiefs’ defense was good last season despite increased injuries is because their most important defensive player Justin Houston played all 16 games in 2014, after missing 5 games with an elbow problem in 2013. Houston finished 2013 as the #1 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus despite missing so much time and picked up right where he left off in 2014, finishing #1 again by nearly a double margin, putting up a near record breaking 22 sacks.

Aside from JJ Watt, he’s the arguably best defensive player in the NFL. A 2011 3^rd round pick, Houston has graded out 13^th, 4^th, 1^st, and 1^st among 3-4 outside linebackers in his career. The Chiefs didn’t let him hit free agency this off-season, giving him the franchise tag. The two sides are reportedly far from an agreement, but, barring an unlikely long holdout that could cause him to get out of shape, Houston will be a feared presence for the Chiefs off the edge again.

Tamba Hali remains opposite him, despite speculation that the Chiefs would cut him and promote 2014 1^st round pick Dee Ford, as was likely the plan when they drafted Ford. Hali is going into his age 32 season, but proved last season that he can still play at a high level, so the Chiefs kept him after he agreed to a reduced salary of 6 million dollars instead of his scheduled non-guaranteed 9 million. Hali has graded out above average in every season since 2009, since switching to 3-4 outside linebacker.

Hali was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, which is the 2nd worst he’s ranked out over the past 6 seasons, concerning considering his age, but still very solid. Ford will remain a backup and play a situational role again. He won’t play that many snaps, but he’s a good bet to see more than the 122 snaps he played last season, 4^th fewest by a first round rookie last year, ahead of Johnny Manziel, Marcus Smith, and Darqueze Dennard. In very limited action as a rookie, Ford flashed as a pass rusher, but struggled to stop the run, which was basically the book on him coming out of Auburn.

Derrick Johnson is the other Chief starter who is returning from a torn Achilles. Johnson is going into his age 33 season coming off of a torn Achilles, which is concerning, but he was so good before the injury that he should still be an asset for them inside. Johnson was a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2013. Even in 2009, the last season he was outside of the top-5, he graded out 8th and did it on 344 snaps. Todd Haley did a lot of things wrong in Kansas City, but his biggest success was his ability to bring the most out of Johnson, a 2005 1st round pick, with discipline and toughness. Haley benched Johnson during 2009 for a variety of reasons and that served as a much needed wakeup call.

Josh Mauga led Chief middle linebackers in snaps played last season in Johnson’s absence. Mauga was a 2009 undrafted free agent who played 235 snaps from 2009-2013 and was out of the league entirely in 2013, but he ended up making the Chiefs’ 53 man roster and starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. Mauga predictably struggled through, grading out 54th out of 60 eligible. The Chiefs brought him back as a free agent for 8 million over 3 years which suggests he’s likely to start inside next to Johnson. The Chiefs don’t really have a better option as James-Michael Johnson graded out 50^th among middle linebackers last season on just 446 snaps and Ramik Wilson and DJ Alexander are just 4^th and 5^th round rookies.

Grade: A-

Secondary

Fortunately, that other inside linebacker spot should once again be just a two-down spot as the Chiefs love using a 3^rd safety around the line of scrimmage instead of a 2^nd linebacker in sub packages. Eric Berry is typically that guy, but he was diagnosed with cancer last season. He’s fortunately doing well it sounds like, but the Chiefs did have to plan their off-season around him not being around in an on-the-field sense in 2015.

After Berry went down last season, Husain Abdullah became that hybrid safety/linebacker and will likely reprise that role this season as the Chiefs have enough safety depth that they can play 3 safeties in sub packages, even without Berry. Abdullah was a promising young safety in Minnesota early in his career, grading out above average in each of his first 4 seasons in the league as a starter since going undrafted in 2008, including the 2010 and 2011 seasons, when he was a starter. Set to make a decent amount of money in free agency, Abdullah abruptly retired because of concussions and sat out the 2012 season. Abdullah returned to NFL in a reserve role with the Chiefs in 2013, played well in limited action, and then became a starter in 2014, grading out above average again. Abdullah has very quietly been a solid safety throughout his career.

Opposite Abdullah, Ron Parker will be the other starting safety. Parker, an undrafted free agent in 2011, played 122 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013. He saw a ton of action last season though, playing 1037 snaps between cornerback and safety, but he struggled at both spots, grading out below average at cornerback and safety, including 73rd out of 87 eligible safeties on 745 snaps. He got a shocking 5-year, 25 million dollar contract this off-season to return to Kansas City, while Jimmy Wilson, a comparable player, got 4.6 million over 2 years from the division rival Chargers. He’s fine in coverage, but missed a league leading 22 tackles last season.

The other contract they gave out to a safety this off-season was better, as the Chiefs signed Tyvon Branch to a 1-year, 2.1 million dollar deal, coming over from Oakland. Branch has missed all but 4 games over the past 2 season with injuries, but he was once a solid safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2011 and their 30th ranked safety in 2012. He’s only going into his age 29 season. After all the injuries, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player again, but it was a nice, low risk signing. He’ll be the 3^rd safety in sub packages. If Berry can get healthy and get on the field this season, the Chiefs could easily use 4 safeties in sub packages, with Parker playing slot cornerback, something he did a fair amount of last season.

The Chiefs saw cornerback as a problem position this off-season and added Marcus Peters with the 18^th overall pick. He’ll immediately slot in as a starter. Peters has the talent to be worth a high pick, but he was kicked off of Washington’s football team last year for discipline problems and has a history of failed drug tests. He has a high upside, but, as is the case with most rookies, it’s important to have tempered expectations for him.

Sean Smith will remain the other starter and he’s coming off likely the best season of his career, grading out 5^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Smith has a concerning history of inconsistency though, so he’s far from a lock to repeat that kind of season. Smith graded out 10^th at his position in 2010, but graded out average or worse in 2011, 2012, and 2013, including 105^th out of 109 eligible in 2012. All in all, the 2009 2^nd round pick has graded out above average in 4 of 6 seasons in the NFL, but he’s had as many bad seasons and as many average seasons as he’s had dominant seasons.

As I mentioned earlier, if Berry can get back, Ron Parker will be the slot cornerback more often than not in sub packages, but that’s unlikely. Until that happens, it’ll be Phillip Gaines’ job to lose, with 3^rd round rookie Steven Nelson being the only real other challenger for the job. The 2014 3^rd round pick Gaines played 376 snaps non-descript snaps as a rookie in 2014. At best, he’s completely unproven, but he’ll be relied upon in a significant way in his 2^nd season in the league. It’s a question mark on an overall solid defense, led, of course, by Justin Houston.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Chiefs will once again move the chains at a decent rate thanks to Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and Travis Kelce, but they will remain a limited offense. The offensive line should be even worse this season, even after the addition of Ben Grubbs, thanks to the loss of Rodney Hudson upfront and, while Jeremy Maclin makes them a more versatile offense, they’re still really thin behind him in the receiving corps. Defensively, they once again should be solid, especially with veterans Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito returning from injury. One of the best teams in the NFL to not make the playoffs last season, the Chiefs will be in the playoff mix again in 2015. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Chiefs after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in AFC West

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San Diego Chargers 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 9, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Chargers considered making a franchise altering move this off-season. Philip Rivers has been with the team since they drafted him 4^th overall in 2004 and has started all 144 games for them over the past 9 seasons, since becoming the starter in 2006. However, with Rivers going into an age 34 contract year, refusing to sign a contract extension as long as the team was considering moving to Los Angeles, the Chargers at least considered the possibility of moving Philip Rivers to Tennessee in part of a package for Marcus Mariota.

Keeping Rivers long-term was always their best case scenario if possible, but, feeling like it might not be possible, the Chargers brought in Mariota for a workout and at least appeared to strongly consider going that direction. Rivers could have raised his family (which is expecting their 8^th child) in Tennessee, close to his home in Alabama, rather than Los Angeles, and been reunited with Ken Whisenhunt, the Titans’ head coach and Rivers’ offensive coordinator during a 2013 season in which he tied a career high for quarterback rating. The Titans could have gotten a veteran starting quarterback and another pick. And the Chargers could have gotten a potential franchise quarterback for the future.

Ultimately, Rivers softened his stance and the Chargers dropped out of the race. The Titans, who ended up drafting Mariota, might not have taken a San Diego offer anyway, turning down a lucrative package of picks and players from Philadelphia for Mariota. Rivers will be back with the Chargers for at least his 10^th straight season as the starter (even if only for lack of a better option) and the Chargers would appear to have at least a decent chance of re-signing for the remainder of his career. If an extension can’t be worked out before next year’s free agency, the Chargers will have the ability to franchise tag Rivers next off-season.

As for the immediate future, Rivers should be able to put up another strong season. He’s going into his age 34 season, but plenty of good quarterbacks have had success into the mid-30s. Rivers career looked like it was on the decline in 2012, when he completed 64.1% of his passes for a career worst average of 6.84 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Rivers graded out 27^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season, after grading out in the top-6 in every season from 2008-2011.

However, Rivers has turned it around over the past 2 seasons, grading out 3^rd in 2013 and 7^th in 2014, as new Head Coach Mike McCoy has worked wonders with Rivers, following the dismissal of long-time head coach Norv Turner. He’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus once in their 8-year history and he’s completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.84 YPA, 252 touchdowns, and 122 interceptions in his career. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and keeping him was definitely the right short-term move.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Chargers didn’t add a quarterback in the first round, or at all in the draft for that matter, but they did add a running back, sending a 4^th round pick and a 2016 5^th round pick to San Francisco to move up 2 spots from 17 to 15 to ensure that they could draft Melvin Gordon from Wisconsin. Whether or not they needed to leap Houston to do that is debatable, but Gordon will definitely help their running game, which was a big need this off-season.

The Chargers fell from 2^nd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013 to 13^th in 2014, a big part of why they missed the playoffs. Part of that was decreased production from the quarterback position, as Rivers went from a career best season where he completed 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, to a career average season where he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. However, a much bigger part of it was the running game, which ranked 31^st in the NFL, averaging 3.43 yards per carry.

In 2013, Ryan Mathews finally stayed healthy and showed his first round talent for the first time in his career. He played all 16 games and rushed for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries, an average of 4.40 yards per carry. In 2014, it was more of the same frustration that the Chargers were used to from the one-time 12^th overall pick as Mathews missed 10 games with injury and was limited to 74 carries. The Chargers were also without passing down back Danny Woodhead for 13 games with a broken leg. He had 1034 yards and 8 touchdowns on 182 touches in 2013 in the old Darren Sproles role and graded out 7^th among running backs on Pro Football Focus.

In their absence, the Chargers’ running game was left to Branden Oliver and Donald Brown. Oliver was an undrafted rookie. Brown was brought in as veteran insurance last off-season through free agency, but he couldn’t even see playing time ahead of Oliver, as he averaged a pathetic 2.62 yards per carry on 85 carries. Oliver, meanwhile, flashed at times, but predictably struggled overall, rushing for 582 yards and 3 touchdowns on 160 carries, an average of just 3.64 YPC.

Gordon, who doesn’t have an injury history, will slot in as the primary running back on running downs, with Woodhead returning from injury to serve in his old passing down role. Gordon is just a rookie and Woodhead is 30 years old coming off of a broken leg so it’s important to temper expectations, but the Chargers seem in a lot better shape at the running back position now than they were last season. Branden Oliver would need an injury to see serious playing time, while Brown and his non-guaranteed 3 million dollar salary could be handed his walking papers.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Lack of running back talent was part of the reason why the Chargers struggled to run the ball last season, but it was also the fault of the offensive line largely. The Chargers’ offensive line has been a problem for years and last season they graded out 31^st in run blocking grade, in addition to 24^th in pass blocking grade. King Dunlap was the only offensive lineman to play a snap and grade out above average all season. The Chargers did well to re-sign Dunlap to a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal this off-season and also poach guard Orlando Franklin from the division rival Broncos with a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar deal, a solid value. On top of that, they signed Joseph Barksdale, a decent starter in St. Louis over the past 2 seasons, to a cheap one-year deal.

King Dunlap, a 2008 7th round pick and a late bloomer, started 6 games in his first 4 seasons combined, but he’s started 39 games (38 at left tackle and 1 at right tackle) over the past 3 seasons, 2012 with the Eagles and 2013 and 2014 with the Chargers. He graded out 37th in 2012, 6th in 2013, and 23rd in 2014. The big 6-9 310 pounder took a while to put it all together, but he’s developed into an above average offensive tackle and he’s only going into his age 30 season so he has at least a couple years left at that level most likely.

Franklin, meanwhile, has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. He’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. He’s an obvious upgrade over Chad Rinehart, who made all 16 starts at left guard last season, graded out 73^rd out of 78 eligible, and was promptly released this off-season.

Barksdale isn’t as good as Dunlap or Franklin, but signing him might have upgraded three spots at once for the Chargers on the offensive line. Barksdale will slot in at right tackle, where he made 29 starts over the past 2 seasons in St. Louis. A 3rd round pick of the Raiders in 2011, Barksdale barely played in his first 2 seasons in the league, playing 282 snaps in 2011-2012 combined. He became a starter in 2013 with the Rams, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked offensive tackle in 13 starts. He couldn’t quite match that in 2014, grading out slightly below average in 16 starts, but he’s still a starting caliber player. He’ll be an upgrade over DJ Fluker, who is moving inside to right guard.

The Chargers used the 11^th overall pick on Fluker in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in both seasons he’s been in the league, playing primarily right tackle, especially struggling in pass protection. With Barksdale coming in, Fluker will be moving to right guard in an attempt to turn his career around. His deficiencies in pass protection will be masked better inside, but it’s still a position he doesn’t have much familiarity with. He should still be an upgrade over Chris Watt and Fluker moving to right guard will allow Watt to move inside to center.

Chris Watt is another recent draft pick, a 2014 3^rd round pick who graded out slightly below average on 496 snaps split between right guard and center as a rookie. He’ll start at center, where the Chargers had 4 different starters last season, including Watt. Prior to this move, Trevor Robinson was expected to be the starting center. Watt is an upgrade on him. Robinson, a 2012 undrafted free agent, has played 707 snaps in 3 seasons in the league thus far and has graded out below average in all of them. An offensive line of Dunlap, Franklin, Watt, Fluker, and Barksdale is better at 3 spots than an offensive line of Dunlap, Franklin, Robinson, Watt, Fluker and the offensive line in general is significantly better now than it was at the start of the off-season, with Franklin and Barksdale coming in.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Chargers added both Melvin Gordon and Orlando Franklin this off-season, as I already mentioned. The only player they lost from the offense that played a key role for them last season was slot receiver Eddie Royal. Royal caught 47 passes for 631 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2013 and 62 catches for 778 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014, grading out above average in both seasons. However, the Chargers did adequately replace him, adding Steve Johnson, formerly of the Bills and 49ers.

Johnson had three straight thousand yard seasons from 2010-2012, despite questionable quarterback play in Buffalo. However, in the past 2 seasons he’s barely combined for 1000 yards, catching a combined 77 passes for 1032 yards and 6 touchdowns. That might lead you to think that he’s struggled in back-to-back seasons. That’s not entirely true. While he did struggle in 2013, he was simply underutilized last season in San Francisco.

Johnson was incredibly efficient in limited action last season for the 49ers. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver on just 305 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He caught 35 passes for 435 yards on 49 attempts (71.4%) and 204 routes run (2.13 yards per route run). He’s also graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus. Johnson should be better utilized in San Diego and has a chance to put up some solid overall numbers again.

He’ll replace Eddie Royal in the slot role and should be able to at least come close to matching his production. On top of that, while he has plenty of experience in the slot, he’s not a pure slot receiver like Royal was so he can play outside if needed. That probably won’t be needed unless injury strikes as Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd are locked into the outside spots for the time being, but Floyd is going into his age 34 season having missed 38 games over the past 8 seasons combined so injury might strike.

Floyd borderline miraculously played all 16 games last season, for the 2^nd time in his career dating back to 2004. This was despite the fact that in 2013 his injury plagued career seemed over last season, when he missed 14 games with a serious neck injury. He also led the team in receiving yards with 856, to go with 6 touchdowns on 52 catches, tying a career high in yardage. He was Pro Football Focus’ 21^st ranked wide receiver as a result. It’s tough to predict him to stay healthy and repeat a career year going into his age 34 season though. It’s good that they have Johnson for insurance. If Floyd misses time, Dontrelle Inman would get a chance as the #3 guy. Inman is a promising former CFL player that the Chargers like. He flashed on 123 snaps in his first NFL action last season, grading out slightly above average, and he has upside, but, until I see otherwise, he’s best off as the Chargers’ 4^th receiver.

Keenan Allen is once again locked in as the #1 guy. While he didn’t lead the team in receiving yards last season, he led them in catches and targets, despite missing a couple games with injury. Allen fell to the 3^rd round in 2013 as a result of a bad ankle and a slow 40 time, but he shocked everyone as a rookie, catching 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 touchdowns, despite struggling to get playing time early in the season. He finished his rookie year 10^th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and finished 2^nd for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award behind Eddie Lacy.

Allen was just one of 11 wide receivers to have 1000+ yards as a rookie over the past 20 seasons and just one of 3 who weren’t first round picks. Allen wasn’t quite as good in 2014, catching 77 passes for 783 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he still graded out above average and is a solid bet to bounce back in 2015. However, I don’t think he has the upside of some of the other guys who had 1000+ yard seasons as a rookie (including the likes of Odell Beckham, Randy Moss, AJ Green, and Joey Galloway). There’s still a reason he fell to the 3^rd round, as he lacks top end speed and athleticism. When I think of a career trajectory for him, I think he’ll have a career more in line with Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston, the other two non-first round picks to have 1000+ yards as a rookie. He’s a big asset in the passing game, but he’s quite not one of the top receivers in the NFL.

Malcom Floyd isn’t the only aging pass catcher the Chargers have, as Antonio Gates is going into his age 35 season. Gates and Rivers have connected for 74 touchdowns in 9 seasons together, 5^th most by a quarterback/receiver duo in NFL history, and within striking distance of Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne in 4^th with 76. However, between Gates, Rivers, and Floyd, the Chargers do have 3 important offensive skill position players who are into their mid-30s, which is moderately concerning. Gates is going into a contract year, like Rivers, and there’s been talking about reducing Gates’ role this season, so it’s unclear how many more touchdowns Rivers and Gates will connect for, but Gates should continue being an asset for this team this season.

Gates, like most of this offense, looked done in 2012 in the final year of Norv Turner, catching just 49 passes for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he too has bounced back over the past 2 seasons, catching 69 passes for 821 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013 and 77 passes for 872 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2014. He’s graded out 14^th and 7^th respectively over the past 2 seasons in pure pass catching grade among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. His run blocking abilities have deteriorated as he’s grown older, but he’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history. He probably won’t see the 996 snaps he saw in 2013 or even the 787 snaps he saw last season, but he’ll still be a weapon for them in the passing game in a reduced role, unless his abilities fall off a cliff or he gets hurt, very possible, considering his age.

Any reduction in snaps played by Gates this season, either because by injury or coach’s decision, would be the benefit of #2 tight end Ladarius Green. Green, a 2012 4^th round pick, has played well as the #2 tight end over the past 2 seasons, grading out above average in both seasons, but he’s stuck behind Gates on the depth chart once again. He may set a new career high in snaps played, but his current career high is only 370 so I’m not expecting a huge role for him this season. An annual popular breakout player behind an aging Gates, Green is already heading into the contract year of his rookie deal so, if he ever turns into a solid starter in his career, there’s a good chance it’s not in San Diego. For now, he’ll provide valuable depth, both as a pass catcher and a run blocker. He’s part of a deep and talented receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Chargers’ offense was significantly better in 2013 than it was in 2014. Despite that, they still almost made the playoffs thanks to a defense that improved from 28^th in rate of moving the chains differential allowed to 17^th in 2014. The Chargers have done a good job of re-making their defense over the past 2 seasons, particularly in the secondary. However, the Chargers do still have problems on the defensive line.

The biggest problem is Kendall Reyes, a 2012 2^nd round pick who has been horrible over the past 2 seasons. After grading out slightly below average on 541 snaps as a rookie, Reyes has graded out 44^th out of 45 eligible in 2013 and 46^th out of 47 eligible in 2014. The Chargers didn’t add any competition for him this off-season, so he’ll be the starter once again in his contract year in 2015, but the Chargers shouldn’t spend much effort bringing him back long-term and should find an upgrade next off-season.

Things are better on the other side with Corey Liuget, but only by default, as the 2011 1^st round pick has been up and down throughout his career thus far. Liuget graded out above average in 2014, as he did in 2012, but he also graded out 37^th out of 45 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2013 and 29^th out of 32 eligible in 2011. The Chargers picked up his 5^th year option for 2015 last off-season so he’ll play this season on it, but he’s entering a make or break 5^th season in the league that will impact what kind of long-term deal he gets in the next year.

Behind Reyes and Liuget, all the Chargers really have is Ricardo Matthews, a 2010 7^th round pick and mediocre career journeyman who graded out above average on 303 snaps last season. Between them, at nose tackle, they have Sean Lissemore, who graded out slightly below average on 338 snaps last season. Lissemore is a pure two-down player and a borderline starting caliber nose tackle at 6-3 298. He’s graded out above average in 3 of 5 seasons in the league since going in the 7^th round in 2010, but the 338 snaps he played last season were a career high.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The first pick the Chargers used on defense this year was in the 2^nd round, when they drafted Denzel Perryman out of Miami. It was seen as a weird pick because, while the Chargers had big needs defensively at outside linebacker and defensive end, middle linebacker was seen as being a pretty secure spot, with 2013 2^nd round pick Manti Te’o starting inside next to Donald Butler, whose contract is structured such that he couldn’t be cut this off-season without a massive cap hit.

Butler is overpaid and overrated (more on that later), but the Chargers are kind of stuck with him right now so the Perryman pick is likely more of an indictment on Te’o than anything. It’s weird for a team to give up on a 2^nd round pick this early, especially one that hasn’t been that bad thus far in his career, but he hasn’t been great either and could be upgraded. Te’o has missed 9 games with injury thus far in his career and has never played more than 538 snaps in a season. He graded out below average as a rookie and then slightly above average in 2014. He and Perryman will compete for the starting job and, at the very least, Perryman will be improved depth in case Te’o gets hurt again.

Butler seems locked into a starting job, unfortunately. Butler, a 2010 3^rd round pick, graded out 16^th among middle linebackers in 2011 and 17^th in 2012, but saw that slip to 45^th out of 55 eligible in 2013. He also missed 23 games combined in those 4 seasons. However, the Chargers gave him a 7-year, 51 million dollar contract last off-season anyway and it went about as bad as it could have in 2014. Butler missed another 2 games with injury and graded out 58^th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers. The Chargers couldn’t cut him this off-season without incurring a massive cap hit so they’re essentially stuck hoping he bounces back after two straight bad seasons.

On the outside in the Chargers’ 3-4, they surprisingly didn’t add in the draft until Kyle Emmanuel in the 5^th round and he won’t be much of a factor as a rookie. The Chargers lost veterans Dwight Freeney and Jarret Johnson both this off-season, going into their age 35 and 34 seasons respectively, leaving youngsters Melvin Ingram and Jerry Attachou to large roles in 2015. Even if they’re comfortable with those 2 starting, their lack of depth behind them should still be concerning.

Attachou, a 2014 2^nd round pick, graded out slightly below average on 182 snaps as a rookie and is a complete projection to an every down role. Melvin Ingram, meanwhile, is a 2012 1^st round pick who has yet to live up to expectations. The Chargers picked up his 5^th year option for 2015, but that option is guaranteed for injury only so he’s no guarantee to be on this roster beyond this season if he doesn’t improve. Ingram’s biggest issue has been injuries. Not only have they caused him to miss 19 games over the past 2 seasons combined, but they’ve limited him on the field as well, as he’s graded out slightly below average in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out slightly above average as a rookie. First it was a torn ACL in 2013 and then it was a bad hip problem in 2014. Ingram figures to break his career high of 511 snaps this season and then some if he stays healthy this season, but he’s hard to trust.

Between Ingram’s unreliability and Attachou’s inexperience, I was expecting the Chargers to add some depth at the position this off-season. They could still bring back Dwight Freeney, who is going into his age 35 season, but did grade out above average last season, something the future Hall of Famer has done in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history. As it currently stands, their top reserves at the position are Tourek Williams, a 2013 6^th round pick who has struggled on 353 career snaps in his career, and Cordarro Law, a 2012 undrafted free agent who flashed on 76 snaps last season in the first action of his career. As it currently stands, both Attachou and Ingram will be counted on for 700+ snaps each.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Chargers have a lot of problems in their front 7 that they really didn’t address this off-season, but their secondary is definitely a redeeming part of this defense. The Chargers have done a fantastic job rebuilding their secondary over the past couple of years. In 2013, the Chargers had 4 cornerbacks all rank 95^th or worse among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, a big part of the reason why their defense in general struggled so much. As a result, they went out and added veteran Brandon Flowers through free agency and Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft last year.

Shareece Wright still saw 14 starts in the secondary because Verrett missed 10 games with injury and he once again struggled, grading out 105^th out of 108 eligible, after grading out 103^rd out of 110 eligible in 2013. However, Wright is now gone as a free agent, addition by subtraction, and Verrett is expected to be healthy after dealing with a shoulder problem for most of his rookie year, dating back to the pre-draft process. Wright was playing very well despite the injury before going down.

Despite playing just 230 snaps, Verrett would have finished 16^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus had he been eligible, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. Through week 6, the rookie was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked cornerback, allowing 44.0% completion, which gives me a lot of hope for the youngster’s future. His injury is a big part of the reason why the Chargers allowed opponents to move the chains at a 69.12% rate in their first 5 games, as opposed to 73.81% in their final 11 games. Verrett’s return will be big for this secondary.

Brandon Flowers’ return will also be big for this secondary as the Chargers kept him on a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal, which, like the deals they gave to King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin, was a very appropriate value. The Chargers signed him to a one-year, prove it deal last off-season, after Flowers was cut by the Chiefs, following a 2013 season where he was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. That risk paid off big time, as Flowers finished the season 15^th among cornerbacks, giving them a much needed #1 cornerback, even after Verrett went down.

Aside from 2013, Flowers has been one of the best cornerbacks in football over the last 6 years. From 2009-2012, Flowers graded out in the top-9 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that. The 5-10 189 pounder doesn’t fit every scheme and he was a horrible fit for Bob Sutton’s man press scheme in Kansas City in 2013, but San Diego clearly knows how to use him and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when used properly. He’s only going into his age 29 season, so he should remain a big asset for the Chargers in the secondary this season.

With Shareece Wright gone, the Chargers signed Patrick Robinson to be the 3^rd cornerback behind Flowers and Verrett and also used a 3rd round pick on Craig Mager for the future. Patrick Robinson has essentially been a bust as a 2010 1st round pick, but it hasn’t been for lack of talent. He’s just missed 22 games in 5 seasons and has had serious trouble consistently staying healthy and on the field. His best season came in 2011, when he played 15 games (7 starts) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback, but that’s not the norm for him. In 2014, he played 624 snaps in 14 games, starting 6 of them, and grading out about average. That’s more par for the course. He’s a solid fit as the 3rd cornerback for the Chargers.

In addition to a solid group of cornerbacks, the Chargers also have arguably the best safety in the game in Eric Weddle, a holdover from the previous regime and someone who has been there since the Chargers drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2007. Weedle has graded out in the top-6 among safeties in every season from 2010-2014 on Pro Football Focus, the only safety in the NFL that can say that. Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty might be better deep safeties, but I don’t know if there is a better all-around safety than Weedle. He grades out well both against the run and against the pass and has played about half of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage and half outside of 8 yards in the last 2 seasons.

The issue is that Weddle is not happy with his lack of an extension as he enters a contract year. Weddle definitely has a legitimate gripe as he’s been one of the top safeties in the NFL and has plenty of evidence for why he should get both a pay increase and some additional long-term security. Weddle will make 7.5 million in an age 30 contract year in 2015. He’s likely looking at megadeals signed by Earl Thomas (4 years, 40 million), Devin McCourty (5 years, 47.5 million), and Jairus Byrd (6 years, 54 million) over the last year or so and looking to get one last big deal into his career.

However, the Chargers do have to be careful that they’re not paying for past performance as Weddle enters his 30s. A deal that gives him more money in 2015 and guaranteed money in 2016, but that stops short of guaranteeing money in 2017, would be fine. A 4-year, 34 million dollar deal that guarantees him 18 million in the first 2 seasons would make sense. A 5-year deal worth 10+ million annually with guaranteed money into 2017 could be more damaging long-term. As for the short-term, barring a significant holdout that gets him out of shape for the season, Weddle is a fixture in this talented secondary and one of the best defensive backs in football.

The Chargers lost their other starting safety, Marcus Gilchrist this off-season, but he was overpaid on a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal from the Jets. Gilchrist has made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons and played well in 2013, but struggled in 2014. The Chargers will try to replace him with Jahleel Addae and/or Jimmy Wilson. The former played 437 nondescript snaps last season and 374 nondescript snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2013, coming in during sub packages as a 3^rd safety, with Gilchrist moving to the slot. With Patrick Robinson and Eric Mager in town, the Chargers will likely very rarely have to use three safeties this season, but Addae and Wilson could both see snaps this season.

The latter is a free agent acquisition from Miami, a similar player to Gilchrist who got a lot less in free agency (2 years, 4.25 million), another strong move from the Chargers’ front office. He played both cornerback and safety in Miami, but I like him more as a 3rd cornerback or safety. He should be more of a 500-600 snap player than a 1000+ snap player like Gilchrist has been the last 2 seasons. He played a career high 791 snaps in 2014, as he was the Dolphins’ primary nickel cornerback and made several starts at safety as well, with Louis Delmas getting hurt to end the season and Reshad Jones getting suspended for the start of the season. He graded out below average in 2014 though, making it twice in three seasons that the 2011 7^th round pick had done that. Overall, it’s a strong secondary, especially if everyone is healthy, which lifts up the rest of this defense.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Chargers’ went from 2^nd in rate of moving the chains in 2013 to 13^th in 2014. This season, they should be somewhere in between. The Chargers had the most offensive injuries in the NFL last season in terms of adjusted games lost. One key player returning from injury is Danny Woodhead, who will pair with new starting running back Melvin Gordon, running behind an improved offensive line thanks to the additions of Joseph Barksdale and Orlando Franklin. That should help their offense, after they had one of the worst running games in the NFL last season. They still have major issues on defense, aside from the secondary, so that will hold them back, but they should be in the hunt for a playoff spot again, as they have been in the last 2 seasons. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Chargers after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 10-6 2nd in AFC West

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Denver Broncos 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 9, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Broncos finished last regular season #1 in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, as they had done the year before, when they ended up losing in the Super Bowl to Seattle. Like the previous season, the Broncos were unable to capitalize when they got to the playoffs, but, unlike the previous season, the Broncos didn’t even make the Super Bowl, or even win a game. The Broncos, after a first round bye, lost at home to the Colts 24-13.

What happened? Well, while they did rank #1 over the whole season, they played their worst football at the worst time. Of the 12 playoff teams, the Broncos ranked 9^th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential in the final 4 weeks of the season. An injury to talented linebacker Brandon Marshall was part of it, but, undeniably, the biggest problem over the final 4 weeks of the season and into the playoff loss was quarterback Peyton Manning.

After completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in the first 11 games of the season, Peyton Manning completed just 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the final 5 games of the season. Manning followed that up by completing 56.5% of his passes for an average of 4.59 YPA and a touchdown in the playoff loss. And that was despite having some fantastic supporting talent around him on offense.

His late season struggles caused him to finish the season only 10^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, after never grading out worse than 5^th since Pro Football Focus’ origin in 2007. His performance in the playoff loss ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th best quarterbacked game out of 22 eligible post-season games. A late season thigh injury seems like the obvious culprit to many people and he’s just 2 years removed from a record setting 2013 season where he completed 68.3% of his passes for 8.31 YPA, 55 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also had similar numbers to those last season through the first 11 games. At first glance, he might look like a good bounce back candidate, but the thing that needs to be remembered is that he’s going into his age 39 season with a history of neck problems and considered retirement this off-season. He’s at the point where it’s impossible to trust him going forward, especially since he did show a steep decline in his abilities late last season.

Over the past 20 years, quarterbacks in their age 39 season complete 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 90 touchdowns, and 80 interceptions. That’s as opposed to 61.2% completion, a 6.92 YPA, 235 touchdowns, and 177 interceptions in age 38 seasons. Now, not all of the players in those statistical pools are as good as Peyton Manning, but you also need to be pretty good to be playing until you’re 38 or 39. Looking at the end of Brett Favre’s career shows the range of what we could see from Manning this season. In his age 39 season, he completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.65 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions. In his age 40 season, he completed 68.4% of his passes for an average of 7.91 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. In his age 41 season, he completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Any of those options is in play for Manning this season. It’s simply impossible to know which one or to trust him right now.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The uncertainty around Peyton Manning’s abilities in 2015 is one reason why I have some doubts about the Broncos becoming the team they were to start last season, before Manning’s quad injury. A 2^nd reason is that they lost a great deal this off-season in terms of talent through free agency. The Broncos went all in on free agency last off-season, signing DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward, and Aqib Talib to solidify their defense, after having their toughness challenged as the old adage goes in their Super Bowl loss to Seattle the previous season. Their defensive upgrades worked as the Broncos improved from 20^th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2013 to 4^th in 2014.

However, that didn’t translate to better post-season success, as I mentioned above, which should pour some water on the aforementioned adage about toughness. As a result of all the spending they did last off-season, they had very little room to re-sign their own pending free agents this off-season, bad news because they had arguably the best pending free agency class in the league going into this off-season. Going all in last off-season made sense because of Peyton Manning’s age, but this off-season the bill was due and they still don’t have their ring.

Arguably their biggest free agent loss was offensive lineman Orlando Franklin. It’s not just because he was an above average starter for the Broncos on the line for the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014, but also because the offensive line was already the biggest weakness on this strong Bronco roster. Because of their financial situation, the Broncos didn’t really do much in the way of adding a veteran replacement this off-season, opting instead to draft Ty Sambrailo in the 2^nd round and Max Garcia in the 4^th.

The biggest addition the Broncos made to the offensive line this off-season wasn’t an offensive lineman at all; it was new head coach Gary Kubiak, who replaces John Fox, as Fox was shockingly fired after the Broncos’ late season collapse. Many remember Gary Kubiak for his final season in Houston, when he was fired after a 2-11 start, but he generally got the most out of his players in his 8 seasons in Houston, going 61-64 with 2 playoff wins. Furthermore, he’s done a fantastic job in his career as offensive coordinator, specializing on improving offensive line play and running back production.

The two veterans that the Broncos did add on the offensive line this off-season are players with whom Gary Kubiak is familiar. However, his familiarity with them is almost solely from practice. Shelley Smith was drafted by Kubiak and the Texans in the 6^th round in 2010, but he didn’t play a snap in either 2010 in 2011 with the Texans and was a final cut before the 2012 season. He then went to St. Louis, grading out 55^th out of 81 eligible on 360 snaps in 2012. Smith was better in 2013, grading out 23^rd among guards on 371 snaps, earning him a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal from the Dolphins last off-season. However, he was cut, after grading out 54th out of 78 eligible guards on just 367 snaps. The Broncos signed him to a 2-year, 5.65 million dollar deal this off-season, but he’s only a backup caliber player.

Gino Gradkowski is the other veteran coming in. Gradkowski played 10 snaps for the Ravens in 2014, where Kubiak was the offensive coordinator, so, while he does have game experience under Kubiak, it’s very, very limited. Gradkowski, a 2012 4^th round pick, struggled mightily in his only starting experience in the NFL in 2013, grading out dead last among centers that season. Like Smith, he’s a backup caliber player, but one of those two players has a good chance of starting on this thin offensive line.

Gradkowski will compete with 4^th round rookie Max Garcia at center. Shelley Smith could see some snaps at center this off-season, especially if both Gradkowski and Garcia fail to impress, but he’s needed more at guard. His only competition there as the depth chart currently stands is Jon Halapio, a 2014 6^th round pick who has yet to play a snap in his career. Rookie 2^nd round pick Ty Sambrailo could move inside to guard and could be a candidate to start at guard if needed, but I think he’s needed more at offensive tackle, also a more natural position for him.

The reason he’s so badly needed at offensive tackle is not just because the Broncos had issues at right tackle last season, but also because left tackle Ryan Clady is out for the season with a torn ACL. That’s the other reason I’m tentative about the Broncos this season. In addition to Manning’s age and their off-season losses, they also suffered relatively no injuries last season, ranking best in the NFL in adjusted games lost. Clady isn’t the player he used to be, grading out below average on Pro Football Focus for the 2^nd time in his 7-year career last season, but the injury still really hurts because of their lack of offensive line talent. It’s also a reminder that they can expect to lose more players to injuries this season. Sambrailo will likely start at left tackle, but news because College Football Focus rated him as a reach in the 2^nd round.

At right tackle, it’ll be a competition between Ryan Harris, Chris Clark, and Michael Schofield. Harris, a veteran free agent acquisition signed directly after the Clady injury, is the heavy favorite. Harris is a veteran journeyman who has bounced from Denver to Houston to Kansas City, but, from 2008-2014, he graded out above average 4 times, below average twice, and didn’t play a snap in 2011. He graded out below average in 2014, his first full season as a starter since 2009, but only barely. He’s going into his age 30 season, but he’s not completely over the hill yet. He’s a marginal starter.

Meanwhile, Schofield is a 2014 3rd round pick, didn’t play a snap as a rookie, is a poor fit for Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme, and is generally not considered a strong candidate to start this season. Chris Clark was the starter at right tackle to begin last season, but made just 7 starts on the season, played just 480 snaps, and graded out 52^nd out of 84 eligible on the season. Clark was better in 2013, when he graded out 22^nd among offensive tackles, playing primarily on the blindside in place of an injured Ryan Clady, but the 2008 undrafted free agent had played just 182 snaps in his career leading up to 2013, so he’s a one year wonder, and he’s now heading into his age 31 season.

The only Bronco offensive lineman locked into his 2015 spot is Louis Vasquez at right guard. Vasquez only made 8 starts at right guard last season, but that was because the Broncos decided to move him to right tackle late in the season as they were shuffling their offensive front around. This season, I expect Vasquez to stay at right guard, as he struggled at right tackle. At right guard, he graded out 29^th at his position on Pro Football Focus in 8 starts and that’s actually a down year for him. The 2009 3^rd round pick graded out 26^th among guards in 2009, 29^th in 2010, 30^th in 2011, 13^th in 2012, and 3^rd in 2013. Only going into his age 28 season, him bouncing back in his natural position is the surest thing the Broncos have on the offensive line.

Grade: C-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The one key free agent that the Broncos didn’t lose this off-season is Demaryius Thomas, as they knew they couldn’t afford to lose him and franchise tagged him. A long-term deal hasn’t been struck and there haven’t been any substantial rumors about a long-term deal being close, but, barring an unlikely extended holdout that gets him out of shape, Thomas will be in Denver this season, once again dominating opposing defensive backs.

Thomas has put up absurd numbers over the past 3 seasons, playing all 48 games, catching 297 passes for 4483 yards and 35 touchdowns. Playing with Peyton Manning at quarterback and being a target monster has definitely helped him, so his numbers could see a little bit of a dip this season if Manning has a down year, but he’s graded out 2nd, 5th, and 5th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in his own right in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. No other wide receiver has graded out in the top-5 in all 3 of those seasons. The 2010 1st round pick was also productive with Tim Tebow in 2011, as he had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Along with Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson, you can make a case for him as the best wide receiver in football.

Thomas wasn’t the only Denver wide receiver that graded out in the top-8 among wide receivers last season, as Emmanuel Sanders graded out 8th overall, including 3rd in pure pass catching grade, in a big-time breakout season in 2014. A mid-sized free agent signing that has paid big dividends, Sanders was sized to a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal last off-season after 4 nondescript seasons in Pittsburgh, after getting drafted in the 3rd round in 2010. In 2 years as a key contributor for the Steelers in 2012 and 2013, including a starting role in 2013, Sanders graded out very middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus, grading out 57th and 60th respectively among wide receivers, while averaging 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run. He’s still a one year wonder, but he and Thomas are arguably the best wide receiver duo in football.

The Broncos did lose Wes Welker to free agency, but that won’t be a huge loss. There’s a reason he’s still unsigned as of this writing, going into his age 34 season. Once again, the Patriots cut ties with a player at the perfect time. Letting Welker go looked like a mistake in 2013, when the Broncos were breaking records and beat the Patriots easily in the AFC Championship, but that was largely because of Peyton Manning’s huge season, Julius Thomas’ breakout year, and the loss of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez by the Patriots. Obviously, that script flipped in 2014.

Overall, over the course of his 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, Welker caught 122 passes for 1242 yards and 12 touchdowns, missing 5 games with injury. His replacement in New England, Julian Edelman, had 197 catches for 2028 yards and 10 touchdowns over that time period. Statistically, Welker had the worst season of his career since 2005 last season, catching 49 passes for 464 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cody Latimer, a 2014 2^nd round pick, will slide in as the 3^rd receiver, moving Sanders to the slot in 3-wide receiver sets. Latimer played just 37 snaps as a rookie, behind not just Welker, but veteran Andre Caldwell, so he’s unproven, but he could easily be ready for a bigger role. Unlike last season, when he missed valuable off-season time with a foot injury, Latimer is healthy as the team implements their new offense.

The Broncos were unable to bring back both Thomases, as they lost Julius Thomas to the Jaguars this off-season, but they did keep the significantly more important one. Julius’ loss will be bigger than Welker’s loss, but that doesn’t mean the Jaguars didn’t overpay, giving him a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal. Julius Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning.

Virgil Green was re-signed this off-season. Green has only caught 23 passes in 4 seasons since getting drafted in the 7^th round in 2011, but the 6-3 249 pounder is a strong run blocker, grading out above average as a run blocker in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, including 4^th in 2014. Green might see a few more targets this season, but he was re-signed primarily for his blocking ability. He’ll work in tandem with pass catching tight end Owen Daniels, who follows Gary Kubiak once again. Daniels has played his whole career for Gary Kubiak, first in Houston where he was head coach and then Baltimore where he was offensive coordinator. He’s not the same player he once was though.

Owen Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008 and has missed 27 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He’s also going into his age 33 season. He did have a decent season in 2014, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 attempts (66.7%) and 410 routes run (1.29 yards per route run) in 15 games. He’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in each of the last 4 seasons and he’s a decent run blocker too. However, he’s just a borderline starter.

Gary Kubiak also brought James Casey in, another player he once had in Houston. Casey was signed by the Eagles following the 2012 season, where he was expected to be a jack of all traits matchup nightmare, but struggled to make it onto the field, playing a combined 330 snaps in 2 seasons in Philadelphia, before being an easy cap casualty this off-season. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he’s had success with Kubiak before.

He’ll likely reprise his old role from Houston, where he played 609 snaps in 2012, despite the fact that the Texans had Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham. Kubiak frequently uses two tight ends and a fullback. He’ll do that less this season in Denver because of Peyton Manning, but Casey will see a lot of playing time at fullback. He’s was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked fullback in 2011 and 10^th ranked fullback in 2012. Jeff Heuerman is a tight end that the Broncos drafted in the 3^rd round this past year, but that pick was likely more of a developmental pick for the future with Daniels aging and he’ll miss his entire rookie year with a torn ACL anyway. It’s still an overall very strong receiving corps thanks to Thomas and Sanders.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The offensive line is one specialty of Gary Kubiak. The other is getting production out of running backs. That’s largely thanks to the strong offensive line play that Kubiak teams usually show, but it also speaks to his ability to coach running backs and diagram run play. In 20 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Kubiak has had 8 different running backs put up a combined 15 seasons of 1000 or more yards. Of those 8 running backs, only 1 (Clinton Portis) was drafted higher than the 2^nd round and 4 of them, including Justin Forsett last season in Baltimore, were drafted in the 6^th round or later.

That’s great news for CJ Anderson, an ideal fit for Kubiak’s one cut system, an undrafted player in his own right back in 2013, and a player who was dominant down the stretch for the Broncos last season. A bright spot down the stretch for the Broncos, Anderson rushed for 849 yards and 8 touchdowns on 179 carries (4.74 YPC). Anderson has very little breakaway speed, but he’s been able to produce despite a career long run of 27, he has 63 first downs on 220 career touches, and he caught 34 passes and pass protected well last season, showing three down ability as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked running back in the first extended experience of his career last season. He’s still unproven, but I like his breakout potential as a 300+ carry runner in Gary Kubiak’s offense.

Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball were drafted to be a strong running back duo, Hillman in the 3^rd round in 2012 and Ball in the 2^nd round in 2013, but both were leaped by Anderson on the depth chart last season and both will be backups this year. Hillman, a smaller scatback, is a better change of pace complement for Anderson. Hillman has missed 16 games in 3 seasons in the league and has averaged 3.99 yards per carry in his career, including a career high 4.09 YPC on a career high 106 carries last season, grading out 50 out of 57 eligible running backs in the process. Ball, meanwhile, has averaged 4.18 yards per carry in 2 seasons in the league, including 3.13 last season in a season where he played just 5 games, thanks to groin problems. His skill set is redundant and inferior to CJ Anderson’s so he’ll likely be a 3^rd running back that would need an injury to Anderson to see significant playing time. He’s a solid insurance policy though.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

The Broncos didn’t just lose talented starters on offense. They also lost two talented starters on the defensive side of the ball. However, they did a nice job of cheaply adding veteran talent on defense this off-season so they still have a very talented bunch, after allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.08% rate last season, 4^th best in the NFL. As is the case with their offense, the Broncos’ biggest addition on defense this off-season might not have been a player at all.

That valuable non-player addition is defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who is one of the best in the business. The Broncos lost a strong defensive coordinator in Jack Del Rio when he took the head coaching job with the divisional rival Raiders, but they found the best replacement out there. Phillips, who was in semi-retirement last season, was with Kubiak for 3 years in Houston from 2011-2013 and the Kubiak connection was likely a very important part of the reason why Phillips is now in Denver. Phillips will be moving the Broncos to a 3-4, which I think their personnel fits really well and, despite off-season losses, they still have plenty of talent.

One of those two defensive starters they lost this off-season is defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, who broke out as Pro Football Focus 9^th and 12^th ranked defensive tackle over the past 2 seasons. With him gone, the opportunity opens up for Sylvester Williams to be the starting nose tackle. Williams, a 2013 1^st round pick, has played just 735 snaps in 2 seasons in the NFL combined, stuck behind talented players like Knighton and Malik Jackson.

Williams has struggled in limited action thus far in his career so, going into his first chance at the starting job, Williams is entering a make or break 3^rd year. However, even though he’ll be a starter, he’s unlikely to exceed 500 snaps as primarily a base package player. The 6-3 320 pounder doesn’t quite have ideal nose tackle size, but he’s plenty big and Phillips has had previous success with nose tackles who aren’t quite as big as nose tackles traditionally are (Jay Ratliff and Earl Mitchell are the recent examples).

In an effort to make up for the loss of Knighton, the Broncos added two veteran players to their 3-4 defensive line, Antonio Smith and Vance Walker. Smith is another player familiar with Kubiak from his time in Houston, joining Shelley Smith, Owen Daniels, and James Casey as one of four ex-Texans added by the Broncos this off-season. More important is his familiarity with Wade Phillips, who was his defensive coordinator in Houston for 3 seasons from 2011-2013.

Smith has a very specific, unique skill set at 6-3 272 and Wade Phillips has always gotten more out of him than anyone else. It’s no coincidence that Smith graded out below average last season in Oakland for the first time since 2010, his last season without Phillips. In 2011, 2012, and 2013, Smith graded out 6th, 5th, and 18th among 3-4 defensive ends, including 2nd, 2nd, and 5th in pure pass rush grade. Last season in Oakland, Smith ranked 58^th out of defensive tackles. He still got great pass rush, grading out 3rd in that aspect, but ranked dead last against the run, which led to his release by the Raiders this off-season.

A return to Phillips’ 3-4 should help him, but it’s also worth noting that he’s going into his age 34 season. If his struggles in Oakland last season were age related, he could easily struggle again this season. If they were scheme related, he has a very good chance to bounce back. Realistically, it’s a combination of both and he should have one more decent season left in the tank. It’ll help him that he won’t be counted on in an every down fashion. He’ll work in rotation and see primarily sub package snaps. Smith has always struggled against the run, but he’s a tremendous interior pass rusher in sub packages and should provide value to the Broncos in that role this season.

The other off-season addition by the Broncos on the defensive line is Vance Walker, who will also serve a rotational role at 3-4 defensive end. Walker graded out above average in both 2012 and 2013, including 17th in 2012, earning him a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Chiefs last off-season. However, Walker ended up playing just 238 snaps with the Chiefs in 16 games and got released this off-season. Even though Walker didn’t earn the trust of the coaching staff in Kansas City, leading to that limited playing time for him, he actually played pretty well on the field. In fact, no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out better at his position in 2014. He’ll provide solid rotational depth.

Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe will slot in as the starters with Smith and Walker as the reserves. Jackson, a 2012 5^th round pick, has broken out over the past 2 seasons as a defensive end/defensive tackle hybrid at 6-5 284 and would seem to be a natural fit as a 3-4 defensive end. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their 3^rd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014. Only going into his age 25 season, Jackson should have an every down role as a 3-4 defensive end this season and could easily have the best season of his career in that role, set a career high in snaps (currently at 601), and break out as one of the best 5-technique defensive ends in the league, just in time for him to hit unrestricted free agency next off-season. The Broncos would be wise to try to lock him up now if they can.

Wolfe is another player who has played a defensive end/defensive tackle hybrid role in his career. Wolfe has graded out below average both overall and as a pass rusher in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, but he’s graded out above average against the run in 2 of those 3 seasons, including 2^nd among 4-3 defensive ends last season (one spot better than Jackson). A tweener who should be a better fit for a 3-4 than a 4-3, Wolfe should also benefit from the scheme change. If he doesn’t, the Broncos have the depth to deal with it. Despite the loss of Knighton, it’s still a strong defensive line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Broncos made a weird first round pick. It wasn’t necessarily weird bad or weird good, but it was both surprising and out of custom with what we’ve seen from the Broncos recently. The Broncos have been in win now move ever since they added Peyton Manning, which makes sense, as Manning is aging with a troubling history of neck problems. However, rather than staying put at 28 and drafting an offensive lineman who could start day 1 like Jake Fisher or moving up into the teens to select Cameron Erving, an offensive lineman they loved, the Broncos moved up to 23, trading #28, a 5^th rounder, and a future 5^th rounder to Detroit to draft Shane Ray, who doesn’t fill an immediate need behind Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. They then waited until the 2^nd round to take their offensive lineman. The Broncos had a top-10 grade on Ray, despite a recent marijuana arrest that caused his stock to fall from the top-10 to the mid-20s.

Talent wise, Ray is one of the top edge rushers in this draft class, but, in addition to that arrest, which immediately puts him into the NFL’s substance abuse program, he also has a bad foot that could cause him to miss valuable off-seasons workouts. The Broncos didn’t draft him really for 2015 though and see him more as a rotational player as a rookie and a long-term successor to DeMarcus Ware, who is going into his age 33 season. He could also be seen as insurance in case they are unable to re-sign Von Miller long-term. Miller is a free agent next off-season.

However, for now, Ware and Miller will continue to form arguably the best pass rush duo in the NFL with Ray behind them on the depth chart. Miller is the younger and better player. The 2^nd overall pick in 2011, Miller won Defensive Rookie of the Year and then followed it up by finishing 2^nd to JJ Watt in defensive player of the year voting in 2012. Miller missed 7 games with suspension and a torn ACL in 2013, but still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, despite the limited playing, making it 3 straight seasons as the #1 player at his position to start his career. Miller “slipped” to 2^nd last year in his return from the ACL injury, but he remains one of the best defensive players in the entire league. After playing a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end position in Denver’s old 4-3 and playing in a 3-4 at Texas A&M in college, Miller is a natural fit for Denver’s change scheme. I’m excited to see the combination of him and new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

DeMarcus Ware is also a natural fit for the 3-4 as well, playing in one for many Pro-Bowl caliber years in Dallas prior to joining the Broncos last year. Phillips was his head coach from 2007-2010. A future Hall-of-Famer, Ware has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 8 seasons of its existence. However, after grading out in the top-3 among 3-4 outside linebackers in 5 straight seasons from 2007-2011, Ware has seen his play slip a little bit over the past 3 seasons, grading out 9^th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2012, 10^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013, and 20^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 204. Going into his age 33 season, Ware is past his prime and could cede snaps to the rookie Ray, but, however you look at it, the Broncos have a talented and deep edge rush group.

The Broncos also have a lot of talent at inside linebacker in Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan, but both are also coming off of significant injuries. Trevathan, a 2012 6^th round pick, broke out as a starter in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, after struggling on 243 snaps as a rookie. However, he was limited to 100 snaps in 3 games last season thanks to a broken kneecap. He’s taking it easy in the off-season as of this writing, but he’s expected to be ready for training camp and the start of the season. A big bounce back year from him would be great, though he’s still a one-year wonder.

In Trevathan’s absence last season, Brandon Marshall stepped up big-time, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. Like Trevathan, he’s a one-year wonder as the 2012 5^th rounder played a combined 15 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the NFL and like Trevathan he’s also coming off of a significant injury, as his breakout season was ended prematurely by a Lisfranc injury, a big part of the reason why the Broncos’ season fell apart.

He’s also expected to be fine for training camp and the start of the season, but his immediate future is seen as a little murkier than Trevathan’s. Best case scenario, the Broncos have a talented pair of 3-4 inside linebackers if both are healthy and continue playing their best football, but there’s some doubt there. The Broncos seem confident in both of them, as they didn’t spend a single draft pick on depth, but they are very thin behind them if something happens to one of them. Reggie Walker, a mediocre journeyman, is their only experienced backup.

Grade: A

Secondary

The other talented starter the Broncos lost defensively this off-season is Rahim Moore. He wasn’t as important to them last season as Terrance Knighton was, but he was still an average or better starter for them in the secondary in each of the last 3 seasons. To replace him, the Broncos signed Darian Stewart. Stewart, a 2010 undrafted free agent, was forced into a starting role too early in 2011, grading out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season, and played just 82 snaps the following season consequently. Stewart has rehabbed his value in the last two seasons though. In 2013, he graded out only slightly below average on 583 snaps and then in 2014 he graded out above average for the first time since his rookie season on 782 snaps (14 starts). He’s not as good as Moore, but he came cheaper (4.5 million over 2 years compared to 12 million over 3 years) and he’s at least a borderline starting player at this point in his career.

The Broncos were never expected to re-sign Rahim Moore as they already have three big money defensive backs in Aqib Talib (6 years, 57 million), TJ Ward (4 years, 23 million), and Chris Harris (5 years, 42.5 million). The Broncos are hoping those three defensive backs can kind of mask the deficiencies of Stewart. While they are all making a large amount of money, all three of them are worth it. They’ll help keep this a strong secondary.

Aqib Talib is the higher paid and bigger name of the two cornerbacks, but Harris is actually the better player. A 2011 undrafted free agent, Harris has improved basically every year he’s been in the NFL, to the point where he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the entire NFL right now. Harris graded out 22^nd as a rookie (on 465 snaps), 5^th in 2012, 8^th in 2013, and 1^st in 2014. He joins Richard Sherman as the only player in the NFL to grade out in the top-8 in each of the last 3 seasons on Pro Football Focus. Harris shook off a January 2014 torn ACL like it was nothing, en route to his career best 2014 campaign, during which he received that well-deserved extension in December ahead of free agency.

Talib, meanwhile, received his large contract last off-season, leaving the New England Patriots. At the time, I said it was an overpay by the Broncos. Going into last off-season, he had never played all 16 games in a season and missed 23 games in 6 seasons combined in the league, thanks to a variety of injuries and off-the-field problems. He had also never graded out higher than 16^th among cornerbacks going into last season. However, last season, he graded out 15^th among cornerbacks in 15 starts, arguably the best season of his career.

TJ Ward, meanwhile, will be the safety opposite Stewart. Ward actually had a down season in 2014, grading out just 34^th at his position and especially struggling in coverage, grading out 81^st out of 87 eligible in that aspect. However, he’s been much better in the past, grading out 32^nd, 14^th, 6^th, and 4^th in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. He’s a much better player against the run than against the pass, but he graded out positively in coverage in 2011, 2012, and 2013. He should be able to have a bounce back year in 2015.

The 5^th member of this secondary, to go with the four aforementioned veterans, is 2014 1^st round pick Bradley Roby, who will continue slotting in as the 3^rd cornerback. Roby graded out slightly below average on 818 snaps as a rookie and has a good chance to improve upon that in his 2^nd year in the league in 2015. He’s a very solid 3^rd cornerback, important considering all the sub packages the Broncos use. Chris Harris moves to the slot in sub packages, with Roby and Talib manning the outside. Despite the loss of Moore, it’s still a very solid secondary on a very solid in general defense.

Grade: A-

Overall

The Broncos are less talented than they were last season, when they finished #1 in rate of moving the chains differential and scheduled adjusted rate of moving the chains differential. They’ll also likely have more injuries, starting with an off-season ACL tear by left tackle Ryan Clady. However, they still have plenty of talent. Despite that, they have a wide range as a team because of the complete uncertainty of the quarterback Peyton Manning. If Manning is able to have a strong year, this might be the Super Bowl favorite. If he goes late career Favre on us, the Broncos might struggle to make the playoffs. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Broncos after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 11-5 1st in AFC West

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Month: June 2015

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