Month: September 2015

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Oakland is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Cincinnati team.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. San Francisco is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 2.5 point home underdogs here against a good Minnesota team.

Minnesota Vikings 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Atlanta is a solid home team, but they’re not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Philadelphia team.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: 2015 NFL Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins), and so on.

I don’t want to pick all of the road favorites though and, while this is the toughest game of the week for me, I’m fading the public and taking the home underdog on principle as essentially a tiebreaker in this game for him. I have the Colts winning 12 games and the Bills 6 and I’d probably take the Colts as 2.5 point favorites, but I’m going with the Bills with the line at 3. The Colts might finish with the best record in the AFC, but that’s largely because of their schedule. There are at least 3 or 4 teams better than them in the AFC, Denver, Baltimore, Miami, and maybe New England, especially with Arthur Jones out for the season. They should be able to win this game, part of their easy schedule, but I’m taking the points for a no confidence pick.

Indianapolis Colts 22 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. Teams like Indianapolis (projected for 12 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Buffalo (projected for 6 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), Philadelphia (10 wins) as 3 point favorites over Atlanta (5 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins).

I don’t want to pick all of the road favorites though and I’m taking St. Louis (6 wins) as 4 point home underdogs to cover against Seattle (13 wins) here 4 reasons. For one, the line is 4, so it’s easier for the Rams to cover without winning. Two, Super Bowl losers tend to struggle week 1 of the following season, going 5-16 ATS in that spot in the past 21 instances. Three, the Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor with a holdout for at least the start of the season. Four, Seattle hasn’t been the same team away from Seattle over the past few years, going 48-21 (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.84 points per game) at home since 2007, as opposed to 26-42 (getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game) on the road. None of these are minor reasons, but I like the Rams here for a no confidence pick. Seattle is a much better team on paper, but, if I have to take a side, I’m going with the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks 16 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +4

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

I really like the Ravens this season. I think they’re one of the most talented teams in the NFL and on the Super Bowl short list. The Ravens lost a lot this off-season (Torrey Smith, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee to name a few), as a result of their cap situation. However, they’ve also drafted well recently, adding Ricky Wagner, Kelechi Osemele, CJ Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams through the draft from 2012-2014. Between those 5 and Will Hill, who is still on a rookie deal, the Ravens have 6 impact players still on rookie deals. Add in a rookie class of Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, and Carl Davis in the first 3 rounds this year, widely regarded as a strong haul, and they have enough cheap, young talent to make up for some of the bigger contracts they have on their cap.

They are weak in the receiving corps, but they’re solid on the ground, solid under center, and have one of the best offensive lines in football. Their defense is also one of the best in football, supporting what was one of the top front 7s in the NFL last season with a reworked secondary that adds Kyle Arrington, gets a full season of Will Hill, and gets Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb back from injury. Wide receiver Breshad Perriman, their 1st round pick, is out for this one and they might not be quite as good as they were last season, but they were also better than their record last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL on paper.

They’re underdogs of 5 here, so they’re the side I’m taking, but I can’t do anything more than a low confidence pick on this one for two reasons. The first reason is that the Broncos are also very good. Peyton Manning is a question mark going into his age 39 season, they will have more injuries this season, after finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost last season, and have already lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the season, and they lost guys like Rahim Moore, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, and Julius Thomas this off-season.

However, Manning still played well overall last season, on a team that finished the regular season #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, they did a solid job of replacing departed players with cheaper starters, and they have a budding star in CJ Anderson at running back. On top of that, the Ravens are not the same on the road, going 47-11 at home since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, as opposed to 35-34, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.14 points per game, on the road over that same time period. I do think this is one of the few games the Ravens will lose, but I will take the points for a low confidence bet.

Denver Broncos 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

The Cowboys won the NFC East with 12 wins last year, but I think they’ll have a tougher time in 2015. Defensively, they were pretty weak in 2014, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They get Sean Lee back from injury, but lose Henry Melton, Justin Durant, and Sterling Moore, key part-time contributors, to free agency and also lose Orlando Scandrick to a torn ACL and Rolando McClain to a 4-game suspension. They signed Greg Hardy, but he too is facing a 4-game suspension and, without him or McClain, the Cowboys’ defense figures to really struggle to start the season.

They were much better offensively, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains, but they also had no injuries, ranking 2nd in adjusted games lost and they lost DeMarco Murray to free agency this off-season, leaving them with arguably the worst running backs in the NFL. They haven’t suffered any injuries yet, but most teams are relatively healthy right now so it won’t make as much of a difference that the Cowboys are completely healthy offensively as it would later in the season, like it did last year.

The Giants are one of the few teams in the league that is already dealing with serious injury problems. Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre-Paul, William Beatty, and Jon Beason are already out for this game and likely a few other games, but they also had the most injuries in the league last year en route to ranking 18th in rate of moving the chains differential. They should be better than that this year even if they continue to have some injury problems thanks to the return of guys like Prince Amukamara, Robert Ayers, Odell Beckham, Rashad Jennings and Geoff Schwartz, all of whom missed serious time with injury last season, to health. They have easily the best defense between these two teams and should be able to put enough points on Dallas’ offense to keep this one closer than the line.

That line is way too high at 6 (6.5 in some places) and not just for talent reasons. The Cowboys haven’t been a good home team in recent years, going 20-30 ATS at home since 2009, including 14-27 ATS as home favorites and 5-10 ATS as divisional home favorites. The Giants, meanwhile, are 57-38 ATS on the road since 2004 (the start Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), including 37-24 ATS as road underdogs and 16-9 ATS as divisional road underdogs. The Giants also tend to be better earlier in the season, going 47-34 in the first 8 weeks of the season, including 25-16 ATS on the road in the first 8 weeks of the season. This is my 2nd favorite play of the week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 30

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated. Usually teams do about 6 points better at home than on the road, so, for example, when Green Bay is -7 in Chicago this week, that means they’d be -13 at home. People don’t understand that and jump on the 7 (the same thing is happening with Seattle -4 in St. Louis).

However, I’m going with the public on this one. I think the Dolphins are way better than most people realize and should have no problem beating the hapless Redskins by 4, if not a touchdown here to start the season. The Dolphins were arguably the best non-playoff team last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, and they should be even better this season. Now they’ve remade their receiving corps, gotten healthier on the offensive line, and added Ndamukong Suh on the defense. I have them winning the AFC East in a close fight over the Patriots and it’s not inconceivable they could be a top-5 team.

The Redskins are more talented this season too, adding Chris Culliver, Stephen Paea, and Terrence Knighton, but they have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They’ve bungled the Robert Griffin situation so much that they’re now starting backup caliber quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.45 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in his career. The Dolphins should defeat them pretty easily. Go with the public on this one. They’re right, but for the wrong reason.

Miami Dolphins 27 Washington Redskins 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

This line is way too high at a touchdown and yet the public money keeps coming in on the Packers. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here. The Bears are better than people think (more on that later) and the Packers have not been the same on the road in recent years. While they are 25-20, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.13 points per game, at home, they are 37-7 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 12.13 points per game. Even using the standard 3 points for home field advantage, the Packers should be 13 point home favorites over the Packers according to this line. The Packers could very well cover a 13 point line at home over the Bears because of how good they are at home, but I wouldn’t bet it and I’m certainly not betting them as 7 point road favorites when the public is all over them.

In fact, I’m going the opposite way for a decent sized play. Jay Cutler should bounce back from the worst season of his career, the additions Eddie Royal will help make up for the loss of Brandon Marshall, while the addition of Pernell McPhee more than makes up for the loss of Stephen Paea and Tim Jennings defensively. They also should have significantly fewer injuries than they did in 2014, when they were one of the most injury prone teams in the NFL. Importantly, guys like Matt Slauson and LaMarr Houston will be back, after missing large chunks of last season. Neither one has a history of injuries so both should bounce back to their original form, which is consistently above average. I don’t have them as a playoff team or anything, but they were better than their 5-11 record last season (24th in rate of moving the chains differential) and I think they’re better this season than last season. 7 or 8 wins certainly wouldn’t be surprising from them this season and they should be able to keep it close here against a Green Bay team that is vulnerable on the road.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

The Cardinals won 11 games last season, while the Saints won 7, but I think the Saints were actually the better team last year, as they ranked 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Arizona ranked 17th. The Saints were just kept down by the usual fluky things that common fans put too much stock into that tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year or week-to-week basis, turnover margin (-13), return touchdown margin (-4), fumble recovery rate (37.84%), and record in games decided by a touchdown or less (3-5). The Cardinals, meanwhile, were boosted by the same things, as they had a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, a +4 return touchdown margin, and a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Saints will be better than the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals will be healthier this season. Even though they were pretty middle of the pack last season in terms of adjusted games lost, injuries still had a major impact on their season, and they will be better for having a healthier Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, Tyrann Mathieu, and Patrick Peterson (Peterson didn’t miss a game, but struggled because of undiagnosed diabetes). Palmer and Ellington remain injury risks and they don’t get any added help in the receiving corps or the defensive front 7; in fact, they lost nose tackle Dan Williams and defensive end Tommy Kelly this off-season, but it’s not all bad news for the Cardinals going into the season.

It’s certainly not all good news for the Saints either though, as the lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills this off-season, leaving them very thin in the receiving corps. They’ll be better on the offense line and on the ground, but their league worst defense doesn’t seem to be in much better shape, especially after they had to cut top defensive player Junior Galette for off-the-field problems. They’re also coming into this one banged up, with Jairus Byrd, Keenan Lewis, and CJ Spiller, all key players, expected to miss this game. The Cardinals will be without free agent acquisition Mike Iupati in this one, but they’re still in better shape injury wise. At the very least, going into this game, these two teams are even, but the Cardinals are still favored by less than a field goal at home. That gives us some value with them.

There’s also value with the Cardinals’ homefield advantage, while the Saints have struggled on the road in recent years. The Cardinals are 29-12 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007, while the Saints are 17-26 ATS on the road since 2010. Getting the Cardinals as less than a field goal favorites at home against a banged up Saints team is a good value and one of the few sides I’d put money on this week.

Arizona Cardinals 26 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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