Month: October 2015

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

On paper, this line is too high at 6.5. The Falcons are good, a 5-1 team that ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re coming off of a loss in New Orleans last week, but now they’re in their 2nd straight road game, which helps, and Matt Ryan is 25-12 ATS off of a loss in his career. The Titans, however, despite their record, actually rank 11th in that stat. They got blown out by the Dolphins at home last week, but they also blew out the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay week 1, lost by a combined 3 points to Buffalo and Indianapolis, and were a few plays away from a much different game in Cleveland.

However, they also hadn’t had many injuries until now. Not only is Perrish Cox, a talented starting cornerback, out for this one, quarterback Marcus Mariota is also out, obviously a huge loss. Zach Mettenberger is starting in his absence. Mettenberg flashed as a 6th round rookie last year, but ultimately showed why he fell so far in the draft, which is the reason Mariota was drafted 2nd overall. He’s got some nice tools, but he’s a backup caliber quarterback and a significant downgrade from Mariota.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have no notable injuries. They also don’t have an upcoming distraction, hosting the Buccaneers next week, in game in which they are expected to be 8 point favorites.  Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. I’m hesitant to put money on the Falcons as favorites of quite this many, especially with the public all over them, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 203-210 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 294-407 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, the Ravens, despite being 1-5, haven’t lost by more than 6 all season. Their 5 losses have come by a combined 22 points. Those facts are relevant, considering this line is 9.

That being said, this is probably the toughest game the Ravens have had all season. They played the Bengals, but that was in Baltimore and this is in Arizona. They played the Broncos in Denver, but the Broncos aren’t as good as their 6-0 record and the Ravens still had Terrell Suggs for most of that game. They’ve really missed him. The Cardinals are “just” 4-2, but they actually rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential and have won that battle in all 6 of their games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence for why a team is good. The Cardinals, despite 2 losses, have been very dominant through the first 6 weeks of the season.

Who they’re dominating is a concern though. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, playing New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh (with Michael Vick/Landry Jones). However, the Ravens aren’t much better than any of those teams. In fact, they lost to the 49ers in San Francisco last week. Despite most of their games being close, they only rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. Sure, they could easily be 3-3, but their one win came in overtime so they could just as easily be 0-6. They’re more talented that that suggests and they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but they’ve lost Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, Darian Stewart, and Torrey Smith from that team, as well as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, and that’s had a noticeable effect on this team. They’re not very good.

The Cardinals could easily have another blowout victory this week and cover this 9 point line. It helps that they have no upcoming distractions, as they head to Cleveland next week, where they are expected to be 4 point favorites over the Browns. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Cardinals aren’t guaranteed to be 4+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. I’m going with the Cardinals, but this line is way too high for me to be confident.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4)

The Chargers are 2-4, but they’re much better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve only had a negative rate of moving the chains differential in 2 of 6 games, in Cincinnati and in Minnesota, two teams that are a combined 9-2. They won the chains battle in Green Bay last week, where it’s borderline impossible to win. The Chargers still lost the game by a touchdown, getting stopped on 4th down on the goal line at the last second, but it was still a very impressive performance, especially given that the Packers were going into a bye. The week prior, they lost at home to the Steelers, but they dominated the chains battle and could have easily won by 10+ if they didn’t throw a pick six, give up a long touchdown, and drop 3 interceptions. Aside from a few plays, they were clearly the better of those two teams.

The Chargers are banged up going into this one, with safety Eric Weddle, one of the best defensive players in the league, expected to miss this one. Tight end Antonio Gates could join him, after not practicing all week, meaning he’s probably on the doubtful side of questionable. However, they’ve been banged up all year. Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett have both dealt with injury, as have offensive linemen King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin. Flowers and Verrett are fully healthy now and Dunlap and Franklin are expected to return this week, a huge boost for an offensive line that has struggled without them.

The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 15th in rate of moving the chains, much better than normal for this franchise, but still significantly behind San Diego. Plus, while the Chargers are arguably healthier now than they’ve been all season, the Raiders were dealt their first major injury blow of the season in their last game, losing Justin Tuck for the season. Tuck was such a huge part of a surprisingly strong Oakland front 7 and he’ll be very much missed. The Raiders deserve to be underdogs of more than 4, especially given that they have a tough test at home against the Jets next week, a game in which they are expected to be 3+ point home underdogs.

Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+ and 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Raiders are not guaranteed to be 3+ point home underdogs, but, even if they aren’t, the logic still holds. They have a much tougher upcoming game than the Chargers, who go to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that could be 1-6 if they lose in Arizona as big underdogs this week. That difference could show on the field. There’s not enough here for me to put money on the Chargers, but they should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)

The Colts are in a bunch of spots that they’ve been historically good in since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano arrived in 2012. The Colts are 19-9 ATS at home (including a cover last week as 9.5 point home underdogs in a loss to the Patriots), 14-3 ATS off of a loss, and 8-2 ATS at home off of a loss. On top of that, they are 16-4 ATS in week 5 or later against opponents who have a winning percentage of less than 50% like the Saints here. The Colts have always had trouble with tougher opponents, but they’re a covering machine in easy situations like this, at home, against an easy opponent, and coming off of a loss that dropped the line a little bit.

The line has been dropped from 6.5 in the early line last week to 4.5 this week, as a result of Indianapolis’ home loss to the Patriots and the Saints home win over the Atlanta Falcons. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Colts. The Colts rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints only rank 21st.

This is despite the fact that the Colts were without Andrew Luck for 2 of their 6 games and now he’s going into his 2nd game back. The Colts will be without safety Mike Adams in this one, but, compared to early in the season, when they had all sorts of guys banged up, the Colts are in a relatively good injury situation right now. The Saints are too, only missing cornerback Keenan Lewis, after struggling with injuries early on, but there’s no way they should be just 4.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis against a relatively healthy Indianapolis team. They should be at least touchdown underdogs, especially given Indianapolis’ homefield advantage. The Saints’ defense is atrocious, even when healthy, and should have major problems slowing the Colts’ now healthy offense.

The only reason why the Colts are my Pick of the Week or a high confidence pick is because they do have a tough game next week in Carolina, which could provide a distraction. The Saints, meanwhile, host the New York Giants, which is an easier game. Underdogs are 113-70 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Still, I like the Colts chances of covering in this one. This line is too low and the Colts always bounce back off of a loss and always take care of business at home against bad opponents.

Indianapolis Colts 30 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (4-1) at New England Patriots (5-0)

The Patriots are in a good spot this week, as they are 9 point favorites before being favored by a bunch of points again next week, as they’re expected to be 10.5 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. That being said, I’m still going with the Jets as 9 point underdogs for a bunch of reasons.

For one, the Patriots don’t deserve to be 9 point favorites here. They’re good, arguably the best team in the league, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, carrying over their strong play from down the stretch in 2014 into 2015, but the Jets are also a very good team, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, just one spot below the Patriots. The Patriots are much more likely to finish the season in the top-3 and are the more talented team on paper, but the Jets are much improved from last season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, the Jets got defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension, adding to an already stacked 3-man defensive front in their 3-4 defense, with Damon Harrison, Leonard Williams, and Muhammad Wilkerson. They rank #1 by a wide margin in rate of moving the chains allowed and could give the Patriots’ offense a lot of problems. This is the toughest game of the Patriots’ season thus far and they shouldn’t be favored by much more than 4 or 5 points. We’re getting great value with the Jets at +9, even with the Patriots having an easy game on deck. The Jets shouldn’t be 9 point underdogs anywhere.

On top of that, the Patriots’ easy game next week might not be as easy as it seems, as they have to turn around and face the Dolphins in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That hurts them, as teams, particularly favorites, struggle before Thursday Night Football, as having another game in 4 days understandably provides a distraction. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. I wouldn’t worry too much about that aforementioned trend about 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites because the Jets are such a tough opponent and the Patriots’ next game is in 4 days.

The Jets, meanwhile, also have a relatively easy game on deck, as they head to Oakland, where they’re expected to be 3 point road favorites. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Jets aren’t guaranteed to be 3+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. This is a way more important game for the Jets than their next game will be and that should show on the field, especially against a New England team that has to play again in 4 days. The Jets are also in a much better injury situation, with no one of note expected to miss this game, besides backup running back Bilal Powell. The Patriots, meanwhile, were already without left tackle Nate Solder for the season going into last week and now are also without replacement left tackle Marcus Cannon, along with defensive end Jabaal Sheard and Dont’a Hightower, very big parts of their defense. I’d take the Jets +9 easily.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +9

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3)

One of the most important things to look at when picking a side against the spread is who the teams are playing next. Typically, the difficulty of a team’s upcoming matchup seems to at least correlate with their likelihood of covering this time. In this game between the Browns and Rams in St. Louis, the Browns have easily the tougher upcoming matchup, as they host the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals, while the Rams host the bottom dwelling San Francisco 49ers. While the Browns are expected to be 4 point home underdogs, the Rams are expected to be at least 6 point home favorites next week. Teams are 71-123 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point home underdogs and 109-67 ATS over that same time period as 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are here as 6.5 point favorites) before being 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are expected to be again next week against the 49ers).

However, the Rams really do not deserve to be favored by 6.5 points, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a pitiful offense that moves the chains at the league’s worst rate. Through 5 games, they have just 72 first downs to 97 for their opponents. There’s a very good chance they finish with 6 wins or fewer this season and teams that finish with that few wins only cover the spread about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. It’s a tough trend to use because you don’t always know that a team won’t win that many games, especially early in the season like this, but I’m making an educated guess.

Besides, the Browns, while they have their own issues, rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, so there’s really no reason the Rams should be favored by 6.5 here at home. They’re not 3.5-4 points better than the Browns. They should be favored by only like 2 points, even with an easy game on deck for the Rams and a tougher one on deck for the Browns. The Browns are missing defensive backs Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson with injury in this one, but neither of them have been playing that well anyway. Meanwhile, the Rams are without outside linebacker Alec Ogletree and defensive end Chris Long from a defense that is keeping this team afloat. As long as this line is higher than 6, I have no problem putting money on the Browns.

St. Louis Rams 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Dolphins were the most disappointing team in the league for the first 4 weeks, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return), and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that were technically Miami home games. They used the week 5 bye to fire head coach Joe Philbin and install interim head coach Dan Campbell, previously the tight ends coach. Though Campbell has no head coaching or even coordinator experience, he seemed to do a good job with them in the transition period, as the Dolphins blew out the Titans 38-10 in Tennessee off of the bye last Sunday.

As a result, this line has shifted from 1.5 last week to 5 this week. Typically, I love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically the result of overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as I think this line is way too high. The Dolphins still only rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re probably more talented than that suggests, but they’re a deeply flawed team with major issues in the secondary and on the offensive line and also have a very inexperienced head coach and coaching staff.

The Texans have their own issues, but are playing much better of late, since switching back to Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer is Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback this season and Houston ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential. There’s no way the Dolphins should be favored by 5 here, especially given that the Dolphins are just 3-7 ATS at home favored by 3+ points since Ryan Tannehill arrived in 2012. They shouldn’t be getting more than 2 points for their homefield advantage, which means that you should only take the Dolphins if you think they’re at least 3 points better than the Texans. I don’t think they are.

The Dolphins are also in a horrific spot, having to turn around and face the Patriots 4 days after this one, as they go to Foxboro for Thursday Night Football next week. Teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 or more (the early line is NE –10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this case, it’s more the first, but, as we’ve established, they’re not a great team either.

The Texans, meanwhile, host the Titans next week, a game in which they’ll definitely be favored in Houston. Favorites before being underdogs (like the Dolphins are) are 70-113 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites (like the Texans are) since 2010. Combining the two, favorites who will next be 10+ point underdogs are 19-47 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites since 1989. On top of that, the Dolphins are favorites before Thursday Night Football. Teams are 41-66 ATS in that spot since 2008. With arguably their hardest game of the season on deck, just 4 days after this one, I really don’t expect the Dolphins to be focused at all for the Texans.

The only edge the Dolphins have is in terms of these two respective team’s injury situations. The Texans will be missing starting cornerback Kareem Jackson and middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney for this one, though the former really hasn’t been playing that well this season. The Dolphins are just missing starting cornerback Brice McCain and he’s one of the worst starting cornerbacks in football. Still, I have no problem taking the Texans +5 as my Pick of the Week. The Dolphins will have trouble winning this one by more than a field goal.

Houston Texans 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Houston +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)

Who would have thought 6 weeks ago that these two teams would have the same record going into their week 7 Thursday Night matchup? These two teams were huge rivals a couple of years ago, but, while the 49ers have fallen apart in the past year, the Seahawks have stayed strong, making back-to-back Super Bowls. However, this year, they’ve won the same amount of games. It’s not that the 49ers have really exceeded expectations, as they’ve been just as bad as expected.

San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. Now they’re just 2-4 and rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential.

The Seahawks also are 2-4, but the public seems to think they’re still the far better one between these two teams, backing them pretty heavily as 6.5 point road favorites. I agree with them. The Seahawks certainly have been a disappointing team this year, thanks largely to an offense that has been hamstrung by a horrendous offensive line and an injury to running back Marshawn Lynch, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential. However, that’s way better than the 49ers and the Seahawks have also faced a much tougher schedule, going to Green Bay, hosting Carolina, and going to Cincinnati. Despite that, 3 of their losses have come by a combined 10 points.

Is that enough to justify them being 6.5 point road favorites? I’m not necessarily sure, but they are in a good spot. While the Seahawks go to Dallas next week, where they’ll be 5.5 point favorites, the 49ers go to St. Louis, where they’ll be 6 point underdogs. Teams are 109-80 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites (like the Seahawks will be) and 72-48 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, while 6 point underdogs, like the 49ers are here, are 72-95 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs again, as they will be next week. Better teams tend to cover as long as they don’t have a big distraction on the horizon, especially if the other team has another game that’ll be tough for them on tough. I wouldn’t put money on either side, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-3) at Detroit Lions (0-5)

Normally, I love fading significant line movements and the Lions went from being favored by 6 in the early line last week to just favored by 3 now. Detroit did get blown out by the Cardinals and Chicago did win in Kansas City last week, but beating the Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs isn’t a big accomplishment and Detroit didn’t get crushed in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 72.09% rate, while the Cardinals moved them at a 77.78% rate, in a game that would have been a much different game by not for a fluky 6-0 win in the turnover battle by Arizona. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 6, on average, have a -0.4 turnover margin the following week, showing, once again, how inconsistent on a week-to-week basis something like turnover margin is. Home favorites are 55-39 ATS off of a game in which they lost the turnover margin by 4 or more since 1989.

However, I’m not confident in Detroit at all. They rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bears rank 24th, actually better than the Lions. Chicago is also in a better injury situation, with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and left tackle Jermon Bushrod running this week. Detroit’s offensive line is getting healthier with LaAdrian Waddle and Larry Warford both working their way back from early season injuries, though defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and outside linebacker DeAndre Levy will both be out for this one. I’m taking the Lions because they’re playing by far the easiest opponent they’ve faced thus far this season (San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Arizona) and because this line is probably too low, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

Both of these two teams are 1-4, but the Texans are the better of the two teams. They have just one loss by more than a touchdown and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 30th. Despite that, the Jaguars are favored by 2 points, suggesting these teams are close to even. I disagree with that and I don’t think the Jaguars should be favored by 2 points over anyone other than a few awful teams (San Francisco and Tampa Bay come to mind).

The Jaguars also have to go to London next week to take on the Bills. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. The Texans have to go to Miami next week, but that’s not that bad. The only reason I’m not putting money on the Texans is injuries, as they’ll be without talented outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney with injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are getting healthy. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury and while they could be without running back TJ Yeldon in this one, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week. It’s not enough for me to be too worried about the Jaguars winning, but enough to stay away from making a higher confidence pick.

Houston Texans 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Houston +2

Confidence: Low

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