Month: October 2015

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)

Tennessee was originally going to be my Pick of the Week at the beginning of the week. I changed that for a few reasons. For one, the line moved from 3 in favor of Buffalo to 1 mid-week, which is a significant line movement, considering 23.3% of games are decided by 3 points or fewer. Instead of having field goal protection with the Titans, this line is now essentially a pick ‘em. Also, I was expecting the Bills to be home underdogs against Cincinnati next week. Teams are 48-64 ATS since 2002 as road favorites before being home underdogs, while favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Titans host the Dolphins next week). However, apparently the early line has the Bills as 1.5 point favorites over the Bengals, while this line is dangerously close to Tennessee being favored over the Bills.

That being said, I still do like the Titans a lot this week. The line movement isn’t as big of a deal as it could be for two reasons. For one, the line movement is likely a result of injuries, which is reasonable. Both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy have been ruled out with injury, leaving special teamer Bobbie Dixon and Boom Herron, signed this week, to split snaps at running back. Safety Aaron Williams is expected back from a neck injury, but wide receiver Sammy Watkins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game and the Bills really struggled offensively last week at home against the Giants without him. The second reason that the line movement isn’t as huge of a deal as it could be is because it’s probably driven by sharp money on the Titans.

The reason I say that is because the Titans are the better team in the better spot and yet they’re underdogs. The Titans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 20th. It’s important to remember that it’s still early (and the Titans have only played 3 games), but the Titans improved themselves a lot this off-season, adding Marcus Mariota, Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo and I do think they’re better than the Bills. They shouldn’t be home underdogs here, even home underdogs of only a point.

Plus, if the Titans win this game, the Bills could easily be home underdogs against the Bengals next week, which would open up those two aforementioned trends. Even if those trends aren’t technically in play, the logic behind them still holds. The Bills have a much bigger upcoming distraction, a home game against the Bengals, than the Titans do, as the Titans host the Dolphins next week. That hurts the Bills’ chances of going into Tennessee and beating a Tennessee team that is, at the very least, comparably good to, it not better than Buffalo. Even though they’re not my Pick of the Week anymore, I still feel comfortable money on the Titans here as 1 point home underdogs.

Tennessee Titans 19 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-0)

The Falcons are a surprising 4-0, one of 6 undefeated teams left in the NFL. However, when you look at the teams they’ve played, it’s not that surprising. They’ve played Philadelphia, the NY Giants (both of whom they barely beat), Dallas (without Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Greg Hardy, Randy Gregory, George Selvie, Rolando McClain, among others), and Houston. Despite that, they rank just 4th out of the 6 remaining undefeated teams in terms of rate of moving the chains.

Their offense has been great, with the offensive line playing much better than they have in recent years and, largely as a result of that, 2nd year running back Devonta Freeman has broken out and given them the complement to their strong passing game that they’ve lacked for a while. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains, but their defense is still a huge problem, as they rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains allowed. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result.

That’s definitely not bad, but it means they’re not quite as good as their record would suggest, especially when you take into account their weak schedule. The Redskins, meanwhile, are better than their 2-2 record suggests, as they rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. They haven’t exactly played a tough schedule either (Miami, St. Louis, NY Giants, Philadelphia) and I’m not sold and them as a top team or anything yet, after they finished 25th in rate of moving the chains differential last season, but I’m not sold on the Falcons being a top team yet either, after they finished last season 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, and I think the Redskins might be the toughest opponent the Falcons have faced thus far this season.

The Redskins’ offense still has problems and they’re missing key players on both sides of the ball (wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, cornerback Chris Culliver, and tight end Jordan Reed), but their defense has played very well, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains allowed. The Redskins spent a lot of money trying to fix their defense this off-season and it seems to have worked, as has the switch from Jim Haslett to Joe Barry as the defensive coordinator. This line is way too high at 7.5.

The Falcons are also in a bad spot, with a trip to New Orleans on Thursday Night Football on deck. Favorites are 41-64 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, as having a game upcoming in a few days can make it hard for a favorite to focus 100%. The Redskins aren’t in a good spot either, with a trip to the Jets on deck (where they are expected to be 6 point underdogs). Underdogs of 6 or more are 71-95 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 6 or more. However, like I said, the Redskins don’t deserve to be underdogs of this many points here and, if they play well this week, they could easily be underdogs of fewer than 6 next week. They’re an underrated team who should cover this spread.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

The Buccaneers are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-19 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Buccaneers are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 36-60 ATS over that aforementioned time period. Perhaps it’s that they get caught looking forward. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league and are already 3 games back of two teams for the division lead (one of who just destroyed them in Tampa Bay) so they might have spent a little bit too much time planning their bye week vacation this week, instead of 100% focusing on their upcoming game.

The Buccaneers have also been awful at home in recent years, again, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Since 2009, they are 14-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.36 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 15-34 ATS at home over that time period and have already gotten destroyed at home by the Titans and Panthers by 28 and 14 points respectively this season. They also haven’t won at home since week 14 of 2013. For whatever reason, the Buccaneers don’t seem to have any real homefield advantage. As small home favorites before a bye, I don’t expect that to change this week.

The Buccaneers are also just awful in general, as I mentioned earlier. After finishing last season 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Buccaneers are dead last right now. The Buccaneers thought they improved themselves this off-season, adding guys like Jameis Winston, Henry Melton, and Bruce Carter, but Winston has struggled mightily as a rookie, Carter has already lost his starting job, and injuries have wreaked havoc on this team, as they are missing cornerback Johnthan Banks, center Evan Smith, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and possibly left guard Logan Mankins with injuries for this one. Meanwhile, top defensive player Gerald McCoy is at less than 100% with a shoulder problem.

The Jaguars aren’t very good either, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’ve played better than Tampa Bay and they’re getting healthier in a hurry after being plagued with injuries to start the season. Left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and safety John Cyprien all returned last week, after missing week 2 and week 3 with injury, while tight end Julius Thomas and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks are expected to make their season debuts this week. It’s not all good on the injury front, as right guard Brandon Linder, their best offensive lineman in 2015, was placed on injured reserve this week, while middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is on the doubtful side of questionable, after not practicing all week, but they’re still the better team here, while this line suggests they’re even. That’s, of course, before you even take into account the Buccaneers’ recent home struggles and the fact that they’re small home favorites before a bye.

The Jaguars are also in a good spot, as road underdogs in their 3rd of 3 road games, off of back-to-back losses. Teams are 20-14 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 19-9 ATS off of back-to-back losses as road underdogs. It’s a small sample size, but road underdogs in their 2nd of 2 road games off of a road loss are 96-58 ATS since 2008, so it makes sense. I like the Jaguars’ chances to win straight up here and I’m pretty confident in them as 3 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

How good has the Patriots’ offense been this season? Well, only two teams have more offensive touchdowns than they do (Cincinnati and Atlanta) and that’s despite the fact that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and 30 teams have played more games than them. They’re moving the chains at a ridiculous 86.44% rate. No other team is moving the chains at a rate better than 79.56%. On top of that, the 119 points they’ve scored through 3 games is the most they’ve ever scored in the first 3 games of the season in franchise history, as good as their offense has been for the past decade plus.

Tom Brady has seemingly rolled back the clock once again, in his age 38 season, and having a healthy Rob Gronkowski, something they didn’t have to start last season, has been a huge deal. After struggling in the first 4 games of the season in 2014, Gronk had an 11 game stretch in which he caught 69 passes for 977 yards and 9 touchdowns, before sitting out a meaningless week 17 game for precautionary reasons. The Patriots moved the chains at an 80.87% rate in those 11 games (and went 10-1), as opposed to 65.47% in their other 5 games (2-3). This year, he has 16 catches for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns in 3 games (on pace for 85 catches for 1643 yards and 21 touchdowns) and is Pro Football Focus’ 1st ranked tight end by a wide margin even though most of the league has played one more game than him.

He’s caught 310 passes for 4539 yards and 53 touchdowns in his last 60 games and he averages 2.43 yards per route run in his 5 year career. In games where Gronk plays over the past 4 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.4% of his passes for an average of 7.86 YPA, 123 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant drop off in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. He’s the biggest reason why the Patriots are even better offensively this season than last season, even with Brady aging and guys like wide receiver Brandon LaFell, center Bryan Stork, and left guard Ryan Wendell missing the first 3 games of the season.

LaFell and Stork remain out for this one (and for the foreseeable future), but Wendell will return after missing the start of the season with a mysterious illness. Wendell is versatile enough to play all 3 interior line spots, so it’s unclear where he’ll play, but he should be an upgrade, though they definitely haven’t had bad interior line play this season. The Patriots are coming out of the bye in very good shape and have a very good chance to move the ball with ease and drop a lot of points once again this week. They haven’t had the toughest schedule of defenses to start their season, as Jacksonville and Pittsburgh have among the worst defenses in the league, but they did also play very well offensively on the road against a good Buffalo defense. Besides, the Cowboys don’t have a very good defense either, ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

The Cowboys should be better defensively this week because they get both defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension, but they still have a lot of problems defensively and should have a lot of trouble stopping the Patriots’ offense. The Cowboys also have issues offensively, as an offense that was one of the best, but also one of the healthiest, in the league last season, is without quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant with injury, after losing running back DeMarco Murray in free agency. In the past 2 weeks without Romo and Bryant, they’ve moved the chains pretty well, as backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has surprised a lot of people and their offensive line has continued playing well, but they were also facing Atlanta and New Orleans, who have among the worst defenses in the league. The Patriots have problems defensively as well, especially in the secondary, but they are the toughest defense the Cowboys have faced since Weeden became the starter.

On top of that, as I mentioned earlier, the Patriots are coming off of a bye and big road favorites tend to do very well off of a bye, as 3+ point favorites are 40-13 ATS off of a bye since 2002. As you can imagine, the Patriots have been in this spot quite a few times over that time period and are 4-1 ATS. The Patriots are also in another good spot because they’re projected to be big road favorites again next week in Indianapolis. The early line has them favored by 5 points. Teams are 101-74 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 64-44 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites.

That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to play an easy opponent, so you don’t have any real upcoming distractions. Two, you’re a really good football team. In this scenario, it’s more the latter than the former. The Cowboys don’t have any upcoming distractions either, heading into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. This line is really high at 9.5, but I have no problem laying the points because I think this is going to be a blowout. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because there’s so much public money on New England.

New England Patriots 37 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: High

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St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-0)

The Packers’ home dominance in recent years is well documented. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 29-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 37-4 straight up, with an absurd +589 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.37 points per game. Even though this is well documented, I still don’t think this line fully takes their home dominance into account, as they are mere 9 point favorites here over a vastly inferior Rams team. It’s either that or the odds makers are overrating the Rams.

I think it could be a little bit of both. The Rams’ won as 6.5 point underdogs in Arizona last week, but they didn’t play as well as that would suggest, as they lost the first down battle 26 to 13. The Rams moved the chains at a mere 66.67% rate, while the Cardinals, though they ended up losing by 2, moved them at a 71.05% rate. The only reason the Rams were able to win is because they won the turnover battle by 3 and it’s very tough to do that every week. Over the past 25 or so years, teams that win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

The Rams will have to find another way to keep this one close, especially since Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interceptions at home in 580 attempts, and I don’t think they’ll be able to. On the season, they rank just 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 6th. I know it’s only been 4 games, but that’s definitely consistent with what we saw out of these two teams last season, when the Rams finished the season 22nd and the Packers finished 6th. If the Packers are beating the average team by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem winning by that amount, if not more here against the Rams.

The Packers are also getting a key player back from injury for this one, as right tackle Bryan Bulaga is set to return from a knee injury that’s kept him out since week 1. Safety Morgan Burnett, who has only played once this season (week 2), and wide receiver Davante Adams, who also missed last week, will remain out, but getting Bulaga back is more important. The Packers have been able to replace Adams and Burnett pretty well with Micah Hyde and James Jones respectively, but replacement right tackle Don Barclay was horrendous in place of Bulaga, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked offensive tackle thus far this season. Bulaga, an above average right tackle, will be a significant upgrade and a big boost for an offensive line that has been the Packers’ only offensive problem area this season.

On the other side, the Rams have managed to suffer very few injuries during the season, but will be without linebacker Alec Ogletree for an extended period of time after he got hurt against Arizona. Todd Gurley being healthy definitely cancels that out and he ran well last week in his first game as the feature back, totaling 161 yards on 21 touches. However, it’s important to remember that Gurley, while he has tremendous upside, is a rookie coming off of a serious injury and to not get too far ahead of ourselves with him.

In addition to being the vastly superior team and having an amazing homefield advantage, the Packers are also in a great spot, with only a home game against San Diego on deck. They are expected to be 9 point favorites in that one as well and teams are 107-65 ATS since 2010 as favorites of 6 or more before being favorites of 6 or more again. The Rams don’t have any upcoming distractions either, going into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. Typically, I hate making huge wagers on huge favorites, but, even at 9, this line is way too low. The Packers should win this with ease and they are my Pick of the Week (and Survivor Pick).

Green Bay Packers 31 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

Andrew Luck missed the first game of his career last week, a late scratch with a right shoulder injury. The injury was reportedly not severe, so many thought the Colts were just holding him out ahead of a short week on the road here in Houston on Thursday Night Football, but he’s inactive once again. It still doesn’t sound like it’s a serious injury for Luck and it sounds like that the Colts are just holding him out on a short week ahead of arguably the biggest game of the Colts’ season next week at home for New England (more on how that’s relevant to this game later), but no one outside of the organization has seen him practice since the injury so who knows.

Luck is not the Colts’ only major injury. Top defensive players cornerback Vontae Davis, safety Mike Adams, and defensive end Henry Anderson are all active, but none of the three practiced this week. On top of that, linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner are also out, while replacement quarterback Matt Hasselbeck didn’t practice at all this week on a short week and was in the hospital as recently as Tuesday with an illness. Hasselbeck was decent against Jacksonville last week, but the Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Texans have a better defense and Hasselbeck has to face them at less than 100%, on the road, on a short week. Luck to the now 40-year-old Hasselbeck was already one of the biggest starter to backup quarterback downgrades in the NFL so the Colts could have a very tough time moving the ball through the air tonight.

The Texans, meanwhile, are getting healthier. While marginal receivers Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington will miss this game, leaving them very thin at receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins, but both left tackle Duane Brown and running back Arian Foster, two much more important offensive players, are both in their 2nd game back and should both play better this week. The Texans also don’t really have any injuries after Shorts and Washington.

Even if Luck were healthy, I would have taken the Texans (though obviously not as 5 point favorites) for a number of reasons. The Colts still have a weak supporting cast, no matter who the quarterback is. Their offensive line, running game, and defense are all subpar. Even before you take injury situations into account, these two teams have also played comparably to each other this season, despite pre-season expectations, as the Colts rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Texans rank 15th.

The Colts, at full strength, are probably still the more talented team, but they’re not at full strength and they’re not the same team they were in 2013 and 2014, when they were head and shoulders above the rest of the division, going a combined 12-0. The Colts have won both of their divisional games this season, but didn’t cover the spread in either, after covering the spread in all 12 divisional games in 2013 and 2014, and could have easily lost both games, winning by a combined 5 points. In their other two games, they’ve gotten blown out by the Jets and Bills, perhaps solid teams, but not the NFL’s cream of the crop or anything. They definitely can’t afford to look past a capable Texans team here.

The Colts definitely could look past the Texans somewhat here, as they are in a bad spot. The Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck, while the Colts have to host the Patriots next week. The Colts are expected 5 point underdogs at home for New England. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter, but the Colts also aren’t that good, especially as banged up as they are.

There are a couple reasons I wouldn’t put money on the Texans, in addition to the Colts’ recent divisional dominance. I don’t think that matters too much now with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are, but it’s still worth mentioning. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Colts are 18-5 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2011, but, again, I don’t know how much that matters with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are. I just really wish we were getting a little bit more line value with the Texans. I’d put money on them at 3 or so, but this line is 5, so I’ll stay away.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -5

Confidence: Low

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2015 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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Week 3

Straight Up: 10-5

Against the Spread: 7-8

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-1

Medium Confidence: 4-1

Low Confidence: 3-3

No Confidence: 0-2

Upset Picks: 1-2

2015

Straight Up: 41-22

Against the Spread: 31-31-1

Pick of the Week: 1-3

High Confidence: 4-2

Medium Confidence: 10-7

Low Confidence: 9-11

No Confidence: 7-8-1

Upset Picks: 7-7

Since 2013

Straight Up: 391-204-2 (65.7%)

Against the Spread: 329-254-14 (56.4%)

Pick of the Week: 20-16-2 (55.6%)

High Confidence: 38-23-1 (62.3%)

Medium Confidence: 99-64 (60.7%)

Low Confidence: 84-71-5 (54.2%)

No Confidence: 88-80-6 (52.4%)

Upset Picks: 52-62 (45.6%)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t have done that. I thought the Jaguars were the right side at +8 even with Luck playing. With Luck out, I still think the Jaguars are the right side, because they’re still in a good spot and the line should have shifted more than 4.5 points for Luck’s injury (Jacksonville is now +3.5).

Even though Jacksonville is banged up too, missing right guard Brandon Linder, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, and tight end Julius Thomas (though left tackle Luke Joeckel and cornerback Dwayne Gratz will return this week), I think these two teams are about even without Luck. Indianapolis’ supporting cast around Luck, for the most part, is weak, as they don’t have a very good offensive line, running game, or defense, especially against the run, while new starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 years old and hasn’t made a start since 2012.

Also, as I mentioned, the Jaguars are also in a great spot, as they have been all week. While we can’t use the road underdogs off of a road loss trend because this is the Jaguars 2nd of 3 road games instead of their 2nd of 2 (they go to Tampa Bay next week), teams do tend to bounce back off of blowout losses like the one the Jaguars had in New England last week, losing by the final score of 51-17. Teams are 58-38 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 34+ points, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that.

On top of that, the Colts have to play again in 4 days against the Texans in Houston (likely part of why they kept Luck out). Teams are 41-63 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday night game. The Colts are currently mere 1 point favorites in Houston and, if they perform badly here this week, they could be underdogs, which would open up another bad trend for the Colts. Teams are 21-56 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. It’s one of the most powerful trends out there that makes any sense. Finally, teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. The Colts are just in a horrible spot here, especially with the oldest quarterback in the league making his first start in 3 years for them. I put money on Jacksonville +8 earlier this week and definitely I’d still be willing to do it now at +3.5 with Luck ruled out.

The Colts typically play really well against the division and at home, going 15-4 ATS in the division since 2012 (when Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano first arrived), 18-8 ATS at home over that time, and 7-2 ATS at home against the division over that time period. They also have played well against weaker opponents during that time period, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. However, it’s hard to trust any of those trends without Luck. I have a good amount of confidence that Jacksonville is the right side this week and would even put money on the money line.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Indianapolis Colts 16 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

What a difference a week can make. Last week, the Seahawks were 0-2 and missing Kam Chancellor, their stud safety, who was holding out. Now, though they’re just 1-2, they have Chancellor back and are coming off of a 26-0 win over the Bears, two occurrences that are certainly not unrelated to each other. The Bears are a weak team, especially with Jimmy Clausen under center, but it was such a dominant performance that it should quell a lot of concerns about this team. The Bears picked up just 7 first downs and moved the chains at a mere 41.18% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for the Seahawks.

A much better home team than road team, I think the Seahawks’ play for the rest of the season will resemble week 3 more than weeks 1-2. This is still a contender in the NFC. They won the NFC last season, despite losing two games in a row, at one point. The Seahawks should have another strong performance at home here against the Lions. Not only are they 21-9 ATS at home in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), but this game is on Monday Night and western time zone teams cover about 2/3rds of the time in night games against eastern time zone teams because of sleep cycles.

The Seahawks could be missing Marshawn Lynch (and Brandon Mebane) in this one, as reports have Lynch 40% likely to play. If he does end up sitting, the Seahawks will have to start undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls. Rawls looked decent last week in relief of Beast Mode, but it’s still hard to trust an undrafted rookie behind a poor run blocking line. The good news for the Seahawks is the Lions are even more banged up. DeAndre Levy, the Lions’ best defensive player, will miss his 4th straight game with a hip problem, while right guard Larry Warford, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, and running back Joique Bell.

The Lions are 0-3 and have been one of the worst teams in the league thus far this season, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains. They’re obviously not as good as they were last season, not just because of injuries, but also because they lost Ndamukong Suh in free agency. They’ve played a tough schedule and they should be better going forward, but their schedule remains hard this week and they probably need to get healthy to start being anything more than an average at best team. The Seahawks have one trend working against them, as teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. Given that and the fact that this line is 10, I can’t be confident in Seattle, but I’m going with them.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Detroit Lions 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

It’s still unknown who the Bears quarterback will be this week at home for the Raiders. Jimmy Clausen started last week, after coming on in relief of an injured Jay Cutler the prior week. Cutler did get some practice in this week, but he’s reportedly dealing with a pretty severe hamstring pull. The team hasn’t provided any real clarity and it’s possible that they’re just keeping his status a secret to make the Raiders have to prepare for both quarterbacks. This line, at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Raiders, suggests that the odds makers don’t believe Cutler will play and that usually means something.

I like the Bears to cover this week either way, but I’d only put money on them if Cutler were to play and the Bears were to remain underdogs. I don’t really have interest in putting money on Jimmy Clausen, who has completed 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his career. Last week, he completed 9 of 17 for 63 yards in a game in which the Bears lost 26-0 and picked up just 7 first downs, fewest by a team in a game thus far this season.

That shutout loss did come against a Seahawks defense that is arguably the league’s toughest, especially in Seattle, where they’re are so good. Even if Clausen is forced into action again, he will have a much easier matchup this team around, though Alshon Jeffery being out again and left tackle Jermon Bushrod joining him on the sideline isn’t good news. The Raiders front seven is much improved, with Khalil Mack and Justin Tuck having good seasons again and free agent acquisitions Aldon Smith and Dan Williams joining them, but their secondary is still porous. Both the Ravens and the Bengals moved the ball through the air effectively against them and even Josh McCown had some success, though the majority of it came once the Browns fell down big early.

The Bears are also in a great spot because of what happened last week. Teams tend to bounce back off of back-to-back losses of 21+ (the Bears also lost by 25 week 2, at home against the Cardinals), going 41-25 ATS in that spot since 2002. On the other side, the Raiders are in a bad spot, hosting the Broncos next week, arguably their biggest game not just of the season, but of the last few seasons for a team that’s been so starved for success over the past decade plus.

The Raiders are expected to be 6.5 point underdogs next week when the Broncos come to town. Teams are 35-74 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 19-49 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 12-28 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter (though I’m still not sold on this team as a real contender), but still. On top of that, road favorites are 78-120 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs and 6-24 ATS as 3.5+ point road favorites before being 3.5+ point home underdogs, for the same reasons.

Given that, it’s going to be tough for the Raiders to cover as not only favorites, but favorites of more than a field goal, especially since this is the first time the Raiders have been road favorites since 2012. The Raiders haven’t covered as road favorites since 2005 and are just 1-5 ATS as road favorites dating back to the start of the 2003 season, right after their most recent winning season in 2002. The Bears do have to go to Kansas City next week and teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Bears are currently expected to be 12 point underdogs in the early line, though it’s unclear which quarterback that line assumes they’ll be starting. If it’s Cutler, that line shouldn’t be that high and might not be by gametime. Like I said, I wouldn’t put money on the Bears unless Cutler is able to play and even then I’d only do it if the Bears were to remain home underdogs, but Chicago should be the right side.

Update: Jay Cutler is expected to start and the line hasn’t moved, staying at 3.5. I guess the odds makers thought that Cutler would play the whole time. Cutler won’t be at 100% and neither will his supporting cast, but the Raiders aren’t proven enough yet to be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone other than the most pitiful of teams and I don’t think the Bears are that kind of team with Cutler. They kept it close at home against Green Bay week 1 with Jay Cutler and were keeping it close at home against Arizona before Cutler got hurt. Those teas are both 3-0, so I don’t know why they wouldn’t be able to keep it close with the Raiders. On top of that,the Bears are in a much better spot than the Raiders are. I’d put money on the home underdog at 3.5 and the money line at +150.

Chicago Bears 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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