Month: November 2015

St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-2)

The Bengals were favored by just 7 points in this game against the Rams on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, but I still don’t think this line is high enough. While the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, the Rams rank all the way down at 28th, so this is really a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best. The Bengals should be at least double digit favorites. The Rams have a strong defense, but their offense is easily the worst in the NFL as they have a below average starter at every position except for running back and arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. On top of that, they could be without defensive end Robert Quinn for the 3rd straight game. Their defense has unsurprisingly not been the same without him.

The Bengals are also in a way better spot, as they go to Cleveland to play the lowly Browns next week, while the Rams host the division leading Cardinals. The Bengals are expected to be favored by a touchdown in Cleveland, according to the early line, and teams are 73-52 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 6+ and 47-25 ATS before being road favorites of 7+. On top of that, favorites of 6+ are 113-73 ATS before being favorites of 6+ again, since 2010.

Meanwhile, the Rams are expected to be home underdogs of 6 against the Cardinals, according to the early line. Teams are 41-86 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs and 6+ point underdogs are 73-101 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, over that same time period. Combining everything, 6+ point favorites are 36-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. While the Rams could definitely be distracted with a huge home game on deck, the Bengals have a very easy game on deck and should be completely focused to blow out a significantly inferior opponent this week.

The only thing the Rams have going for them is that they are in their 2nd straight road game, following their loss in Baltimore last week. Teams are 125-88 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 102-60 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 217-215 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.33 points per game, as opposed to 304-424 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. Still, as long as this line is single digits, I’m confident enough in Cincinnati to put money on them.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (2-8)

The Raiders have lost 3 straight games since their 4-3 start, as player losses have caught up with them. They lost defensive end Justin Tuck for the season to injury before their bye week and have been without him for the past 5 games. Center Rodney Hudson is expected to miss his 2nd game in the past 3 weeks with an ankle injury. And outside linebacker Aldon Smith was suspended for the season before last week’s game and will miss his 2nd straight game this week. Those were 3 of their best players. The Raiders rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their talent level is much less than that without Tuck, Smith, and Hudson.

Tennessee, meanwhile, ranks 25th, but they have been significantly better offensively when talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has been healthy. In the 8 games he’s played, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.27% rate, as opposed to 57.41% in the 2 games he missed. They also get top wide receiver Kendall Wright back from a 3 game absence this week and cornerback Perrish Cox returned last week, after missing 3 games. They’re missing cornerback Jason McCourty for the season and could be without outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, though McCourty has already missed 6 games and Morgan is expected to play. They’re missing fewer players than the Raiders and should not be home underdogs here by any amount, even only a couple points.

The Titans are in a much better spot than the Raiders too, hosting the lowly Jaguars next week, while the Raiders have to host a surging Chiefs team. Favorites are 96-166 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs (which the Raiders will be next week) when their opponent will next be favorites (which the Titans will be next week). On top of that, road favorites are 79-123 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989, including 8-23 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. While the Raiders could be distracted this week by a tough, upcoming home game, the Titans should be focused. Because of that, they should be able to beat the banged up, slumping Raiders. Despite that, the public is all over the Raiders as road favorites. The public always loses money in the long run so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, which it does here. This has all the elements of a Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)

The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points here at home, where they are 21-4 straight up (outscoring opponents by an average of 11.38 points per game) in their last 25 games, since the start of the 2013 season. Over those 25 games, they were favored by fewer than 4 points just twice. They were favored by just 3 points at home over the Cardinals 2 weeks ago, a loss by a touchdown, but the Cardinals are much better than the Steelers, as the Steelers rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cardinals are 1st.

The Steelers have been better offensively in games where Ben Roethlisberger plays, moving the chains at a 75.14% rate in the 6 games he’s played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games, but they’re far from healthy offensively, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, and center Maurkice Pouncey for the season. Those are 3 key starters from last year’s dominant offense. They looked good offensively in their 2 last games before the bye, but that was at home against Cleveland and Oakland. On the road in Seattle is much tougher and they could easily struggle, much like they did three games ago, at home for Cincinnati.

Seattle isn’t quite as good as they have been in recent years, thanks to poor offensive line play, but they’re better than their 5-5 record. Four of their five losses came by a touchdown or less and they’ve lost to teams like Green Bay, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Carolina. The Seahawks of years past definitely would have won a couple of those games, but the Seahawks still rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential against a tough schedule.

They’re going to be missing a couple of players with injury, running back Marshawn Lynch and outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, but Irvin is largely a part-time player and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year . I’m confident in the Seahawks covering, especially since the public is all over the underdog. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field or goal or less and I’m very worried about a backdoor cover. If this line does move down to a field goal, I may reconsider.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)

Carolina is undefeated and Dallas is 3-7, but the Cowboys are the ones favored here in Dallas (albeit by 1 point). That’s because 5 of the Cowboys’ 7 losses have come by less than a touchdown and they’re finally healthy offensively. Tony Romo made just his 3rd start of the season last week (after missing 7 games with a broken collarbone) and the Cowboys are 3-0 in his 3 starts, moving the chains at a 75.25% rate, as opposed to 70.23% in their other 7 games. Considering how close a lot of their losses were, it’s reasonable to suggest that this team could be at least 6-4, if not 7-3 if Romo were healthy all season, like he is now.

With Dez Bryant also back from injury, this team is similar to last year’s team that was one of the better teams in the league. Obviously running back DeMarco Murray left as a free agent (as did more minor contributors like defensive tackle Henry Melton, cornerback Sterling Moore, and outside linebacker Justin Durant) and they’re still without cornerback Orlando Scandrick with a torn ACL, but they’ve added defensive end Greg Hardy and got outside linebacker Sean Lee back from injury.

Still, Carolina ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cowboys rank 20th, and Carolina gets a key player back this week, guard Andrew Norwell, who was one of the better guards in the league before missing the last 3 games. The Cowboys don’t deserve to be favored by any amount of points here, especially since they are 8-25 ATS as home favorites since 2010. I can’t put any money on the Panthers unless I’m getting a field goal, especially considering that the public is all over them, but they should be able to continue their undefeated season here and they are my pick.

Carolina Panthers 23 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Carolina +1

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Packers lost to the lowly Lions in their last home game, but they’ve generally had a ton of success at Lambeau recently. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-13-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-5 straight up, with an absurd +608 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.82 points per game. That homefield advantage seems to be priced into this line though, as the Packers are favored by 9 (up from 7 a week ago), despite the fact that they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Bears rank 19th.

The Bears have also been better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy (72.62% rate of moving the chains differential in the 8 games he’s been healthy, 56.25% rate in their other 2 games) and are getting Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery back from injury this week. Tight end Martellus Bennett, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and possibly safety Antrel Rolle are out with injury, but the Bears are still healthier than they’ve been for most of this season. The Packers are pretty healthy too, but could be without center Corey Linsley on a short week and haven’t been as good offensively all season without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They are a great home team, but are far from a lock to blow out a decent Bears team.

The Packers are in a good spot, with a trip to Detroit on deck. Teams are 109-85 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012 and 71-50 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites over that same time period. However, so are the Bears, who host the 49ers next week. Underdogs of 6+ are 146-97 ATS before being 6+ point favorites since 1989. Lines can change so neither team is a lock to be in the spot I mentioned, but, either way, the logic holds. Both teams are have easy games on deck and should be very focused for this game. I’m taking the Packers by default at home, but I can’t put money on them unless this line goes back down to 7.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at Detroit Lions (3-7)

The Eagles were favored by a field goal in Detroit on the early line last week, but now are 2.5 point road underdogs, a huge line movement considering the fact that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. I think that’s the case here this week. The Eagles got embarrassed at home against the Buccaneers last week 45-17, but they still rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential.

They could be without quarterback Sam Bradford for the 2nd straight week this week, but he hasn’t played that well this season and backup Mark Sanchez isn’t really a downgrade. Their defense has been what’s kept them competitive this season. They just had a fluky bad week last week. The Eagles are also missing running back Ryan Mathews, tight end Zach Ertz, and possibly center Jason Kelce with injuries. Still, they’re a significantly better team than the Lions, which is not what this line suggests. Despite that, the public is all over Detroit and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, which it does this week.

The Lions have won 2 straight games, but still rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re healthier than they’ve been all season and are playing their best football right now as a result. They’re in a tough spot with a home game against Green Bay on deck, as teams are 76-120 ATS before being home underdogs of 3+ since 2012, but the Eagles have a trip to New England on deck and teams are 34-53 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 10+. Neither of those things is guaranteed (Detroit being 3+ point home underdogs is more likely), but the logic holds either way. Both teams have tough upcoming games. With Kelce questionable, I can’t put any money on Philadelphia unless they’re getting a field goal, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Detroit Lions 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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2015 Week 11 NFL Pick Results

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Week 11

Straight Up: 6-8

Against the Spread: 5-9

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-2

Medium Confidence: 1-1

Low Confidence: 2-3

No Confidence: 2-2

Upset Picks: 0-3

2015

Straight Up: 94-66

Against the Spread: 66-90-4

Pick of the Week: 5-6

High Confidence: 8-8

Medium Confidence: 18-21-1

Low Confidence: 17-29-1

No Confidence: 18-26-2

Upset Picks: 10-18

Since 2013

Straight Up: 444-248-2 (64.2%)

Against the Spread: 364-313-17 (53.8%)

Pick of the Week: 24-19-2 (55.8%)

High Confidence: 42-29-1 (59.2%)

Medium Confidence: 107-78-1 (57.8%)

Low Confidence: 92-89-6 (50.8%)

No Confidence: 99-98-7 (50.3%)

Upset Picks: 55-73 (43.0%)

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)

The Rams have benched Nick Foles, who they traded for and gave an extension to this off-season, for backup Case Keenum. Keenum has struggled in a decent amount of action in his career, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.65 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions across 330 attempts, but it would be hard for him to be worse than Foles has been this season. Foles has posted equally poor numbers, completing 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.56 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions across 256 attempts and the Rams rank easily dead last in the NFL in rate of moving the chains, wasting the performance of a defense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

It’s also going to be hard for Keenum to be much of an improvement, considering his limited skill set and that he’ll have to work with the same receiving corps and offensive line that Foles had to work with, both units that are arguably the worst in the NFL. Because of how poor the offense is, the Rams rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a strong defense. Their defense hasn’t been quite as good in recent weeks anyway, thanks to injuries to Alec Ogletree, defensive end Chris Long, and especially defensive end Robert Quinn. Long could return this week, but missing Quinn again is a huge absence, considering he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL when healthy.

The Ravens aren’t very good either, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. After ranking 3rd in that statistic in 2014, the Ravens have lost wide receiver Torrey Smith (free agency), wide receiver Steve Smith (injury), outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (free agency), defensive lineman Haloti Ngata (cap casualty), outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (injury), and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak (now Denver’s head coach). Now they’ve lost starting center Jeremy Zuttah for the season and could be without left guard Kelechi Osemele with injury as well. Still, they’re a better team than the Rams, which is not what this line suggests at 2.5. Considering close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, I’m going to take the Ravens as less than field goal favorites, though I’m not confident.

Baltimore Ravens 17 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The Falcons are 6-3, but not as good as their record. Their 3 losses came against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Just 2 of their 6 wins have come by more than a touchdown and the toughest team they’ve beaten is probably Philadelphia, who they only beat because they were at home and Philadelphia missed a makeable field goal at the end of the game. The Falcons have exceeded pre-season expectations, but aren’t too much more talented than their 4-win team from 2013 or their 6-win team from 2014. They’ve simply lucked out getting close wins (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less) and playing easy opponents.

They would seem to have lucked out again, given that they’re facing the Colts without Andrew Luck, who is missing the first of multiple games with a lacerated kidney. Luck is certainly a better player than backup Matt Hasselbeck and has more upside, but Luck was not playing well when on the field this season, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Hasselbeck is a solid, experienced backup and played well in two spot starts in place of Luck earlier this year. The Colts moved the chains at a 73.85% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 69.66% in their other 7 games with Luck.

Given that, the Falcons should not be favored by 5 points here over the Colts. They rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as their defense has been solid this season (11th), allowing them to be competitive, despite inconsistencies and struggles at the quarterback position. They’ve had a way tougher schedule too, facing Carolina, Denver, New England, and the Jets, who would all be the toughest opponent Atlanta has seen all season. They haven’t played any of those teams without Luck, but they should still be able to keep it close in Atlanta. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, including 3 of the Falcons’ wins, so as long as the line is 4.5 or more, the Colts should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Cowboys are 2-7, but are favored here by 1.5 points in Miami. That’s because, of their 7 losses, 5 of them have come by less than a touchdown. As a result, they rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains, not bad as their record. The Dolphins rank 24th, but the Cowboys are getting Tony Romo back from injury for the first time since week 2 (when they were 2-0). The Cowboys are going to be missing top linebacker Sean Lee with injury, but the Dolphins are without defensive end Cameron Wake, offensive tackle JuWuan James, and linebacker Jelani Jenkins.

The Cowboys are in a tough spot though, playing again in 4 days, against the Panthers in Dallas, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. On top of that, they could easily be home underdogs next week and road favorites are 19-36 ATS before being home underdogs since 2012. The early line has that game as a pick ‘em, but the line could easily become 1 or 2 in favor of Carolina. Either way, they have a tough game coming up in a few days and are in a bad spot as a result of that.

It does help the Cowboys that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 43-29 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 215-215 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.42 points per game, as opposed to 300-420 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.92 points per game. I’m going to take them because they should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them, but I’m not confident.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1.5

Confidence: None

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