Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

I’m a little confused why this is an even line. I think the Eagles should be favored by at least a field goal. These two teams are very even in rate of moving the chains differential (Buffalo is 20th and Philadelphia is 21st) and, while the Eagles are arguably healthier than they’ve been all season, the Bills are missing two defensive starters, linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. It’s tempting to put money on the Eagles, but they have a tough upcoming home game against the Arizona Cardinals. They should be home underdogs of around 4 points. Teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. The Eagles are the pick though.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia PK

Confidence: Low

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