Year: 2015

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-1)

Anyone who follows me knows I love to go against significant line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game has one of those, as the Rams have gone from 2.5 point favorites to 2 point underdogs here at home in the past week. It’s easy to understand why. The Rams lost as favorites in Washington, while the Steelers destroyed the visiting San Francisco 49ers last week. However, that was still just one week. What about the Rams’ victory over the Seahawks in St. Louis week 1? That game made everyone overreact last week, moving the line in both the St. Louis/Washington and the Green Bay/Seattle game significantly, but now everyone seems to be overreacting the other way, as the public is on the road favorite here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

The line movement is still within the field goal on either side, but it’s still significant. The Steelers have had troubling getting up for these seemingly easy non-divisional road games in the past, going 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since 2007. They also just don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. This line suggests the Steelers are 5 points better than the Rams, meaning they’d be -8 at home against the Rams. Well, they were just -5.5 at home for the 49ers. I know the Steelers blew the 49ers out, but that’s still just one week. The Rams aren’t a great team because they lack much on offense around the quarterback, but they still had one of the best defenses in the league last year, a unit that is led by arguably the best defensive line in football and a unit that has played well thus far this season, and they upgraded at the quarterback position by adding Nick Foles this off-season.

The Steelers have a good offense and will get even better on the offensive side of the ball with Le’Veon Bell back from suspension, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and wide receiver Martavis Bryant from an offense that was basically injury free last season. Meanwhile, their defense remains a huge problem and one that won’t get better with both nose tackle Daniel McClullers and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier hurt. Those are two of the few bright spots thus far on a defense that has ranked 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed through 2 games, after ranking 25th last season. The Rams, on the other hand, are healthier than they’ve been all season, with both Todd Gurley and Brian Quick seemingly set to return, in some capacity, from injury this week.

On top of that, the Steelers are in a bad spot with a Thursday Night game against Baltimore on deck. That could easily be a distraction, especially with a short week up next. Teams are 41-62 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Considering the Steelers have typically overlooked weak non-divisional opponents on the road like this in the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers could have a very tough team getting up for this game with a Thursday Night battle against their archrival on deck. This game screams trap game and I’m happy to take the points as long as I’m getting them.

St. Louis Rams 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +2

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

Not a lot of people are talking about the Chargers, but they have a good team. A borderline playoff team in 2013 and 2014, the Chargers’ secondary is significantly better than it was in 2013 thanks to the additions of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett, while their offense is significantly healthier than it was in 2014, when they led the league in offensive adjusted games lost to injury. They’re only 1-1, but they’ve played two playoff caliber opponents, Cincinnati and Detroit.

Minnesota has also played Detroit, but lost in embarrassing fashion week 1 in San Francisco. Both of these teams have beaten Detroit on their homefield, but San Diego’s victory was more impressive. The Chargers moved the chains at an 8.97% better rate than the Lions did in their victory, while Minnesota moved the chains at a 3.69% better rate than the Lions in their victory. On top of that, Minnesota was also playing a very injured Matt Stafford, which made their life easier. The Chargers have also done a much better job in that aspect overall on the season than the Vikings, as they rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Vikings rank 23rd.

I know it’s only been two games, but that was the case in 2014 as well, when the Chargers finished 13th and the Vikings finished 27th. The Vikings are an improved team from last year to this year, with Adrian Peterson back and Teddy Bridgewater going into his second year, but they’re very banged up on the offensive line and they’re still not as good as the Chargers, who are also improved from last season, thanks to players returning from injury. This line does give the Chargers the nod as being the better team, as it’s 2.5 in favor of Minnesota at home and not 3 and I certainly would prefer it at 3, but I still think we’re getting line value with the Chargers. This line should be around even.

The Chargers are also in a great spot, coming off of a close road loss to the Bengals. Teams are 117-81 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 282-395 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

In addition to being in a great spot because of their game last week, the Chargers are also in a great spot because their game next week, as they have no upcoming distractions, with only a home game against the irrelevant Browns on deck. Minnesota, meanwhile, has to go to Denver and play one of the toughest games of their season next week. Road underdogs are 104-61 ATS since 2008 before being home favorites when their opponent will next be a home favorite. I had a tough time picking my Pick of the Week this week and I weighed a few good options, but I ultimately settled on the Chargers. I like them a good amount here in Minnesota.

San Diego Chargers 24 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Diego -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2)

The Redskins entered the season as a laughing stock. Now some are predicting they’ll win the NFC East. How did that happen? Well, the Redskins have played better than people have expected through two games, beating the Rams week 2 and almost beating the Dolphins week 1. Both of those games were at home, but the Redskins were home underdogs in both games, so they weren’t games they were expected to win. They’ve also ranked 8th in rate of moving the chains differential through 2 weeks.

The Redskins’ offense has remained a problem, particularly with DeSean Jackson out, but their defense does look legitimately much improved from a year ago. They were one of the worst defenses in the league last year, 24th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but they rank 6th through 2 games this season. I know it’s only two games, but they added guys like Terrance Knighton, Stephen Paea, Chris Culliver, and Ricky Jean-Francois in free agency this off-season. That’s made a huge difference and it’s something that I think they can maintain.

The other reason some think they can win the NFC East is simply what’s happened to the rest of the division. The only other team in the division that has even won a game is Dallas and they’ll be without both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant with injury for the foreseeable future, perhaps until December, drastically lessening their chances of being a good team this year. I still think both Dallas and Philadelphia are in better position to win the division than Washington. Philadelphia could be 1-1 if Cody Parkey hits a makeable go ahead field goal in Atlanta and then we wouldn’t really be taking about them as a non-contender, while Dallas still has good parts and technically has a 3 game lead over Philadelphia for the division, thanks to the head-to-head victory. Washington will make noise, but I still think Dallas and Philadelphia will finish higher than them.

I don’t think New York will though, as they’ve looked legitimately bad through 2 games. Yeah, they could have won both games, letting up game winning drives late in both of them, but they are currently 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. I know it’s only been two games, but they haven’t been good over the last 2 years either, thanks to injuries, and the injury bug has continued to bite them this season. Jason Pierre-Paul, William Beatty, and Victor Cruz are all out for this one again.

Middle linebacker Jon Beason returns and he’ll be a huge upgrade over Uani’ Unga, who has been Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked middle linebacker through 2 games in Beason’s absence, but Beason isn’t a very good player either at this stage of his career, after all of those injuries, so he won’t exactly be a savior. The Giants are also expected to be without rookie left tackle Ereck Flowers for this one, meaning they’ll be missing both of their intended starting offensive tackles. On top of that, Robert Ayers, arguably their best defensive player through 2 games and the saving grace of this pass rush with JPP out, will be a game time decision for this game with a hamstring problem.

In spite of that, the Giants are favored by 3.5 points here at home, suggesting that they are the better of the two teams. I obviously disagree with that. The Giants also have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era.  They are 51-42 (44-49 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.55 points per game, as opposed to 53-43 (58-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game.

With a slightly superior team in town and minimal homefield advantage, the Giants should only be favored by like a point, if that. On top of that, the Redskins are in a good spot having their first road game of the year week 3. This is the first time they’ve had to travel for a real game since last December and typically teams are more rested than their opponents and do well in that spot, going 40-26 ATS since 1989. The public is on the Giants, but the line has dropped from 4 to 3.5, which suggests sharp action on Washington. That could drop this line to a field goal or lower by game time, so lock in 3.5 while you have a chance. The Redskins should be the right side this week.

Washington Redskins 20 New York Giants 19 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

2015 Week 2 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last Week

Straight Up: 8-8

Against the Spread: 8-8

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 4-1

Low Confidence: 2-4

No Confidence: 1-2

Upset Picks: 3-2

Season

Straight Up: 20-12

Against the Spread: 18-13-1

Pick of the Week: 1-1

High Confidence: 2-0

Medium Confidence: 6-2

Low Confidence: 3-6

No Confidence: 6-4-1

Upset Picks: 4-2

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

Last week, the Redskins were 3.5 point home underdogs for the Miami Dolphins and ended up losing 17-10. This week, they are 3.5 point home underdogs again, but to a team that I think is significantly inferior to the Miami Dolphins, the St. Louis Rams. The Rams had an impressive performance last week in a 34-31 overtime win over the Seahawks, but they likely just caught the Seahawks off guard, especially since they were missing safety Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks were on the road, where they haven’t been as good as they’ve been at home and the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous year is notoriously bad week 1. It was only a 3 point upset, but everyone is acting like it was so much more than that.

The Rams upgraded the quarterback position this off-season by bringing in Nick Foles, arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Marc Bulger, and they have arguably the best defensive line in football, but their offensive talent around Foles is limited, especially without wide receiver Brian Quick and running back Todd Gurley, who are expected out again this week, and their defensive back 7 has plenty of issues, especially with cornerback EJ Gaines out for the season with a foot injury. The Redskins have their own injury issues with top receiver DeSean Jackson out with a hamstring problem and quarterback Kirk Cousins might be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, but they’ve drastically improved one of the worst defenses in the league this off-season with the additions of Chris Culliver, Stephen Paea, and Terrance Knighton. They don’t deserve to be 3.5 point underdogs here. That means they would be 9.5 point underdogs in St. Louis, which I don’t think makes sense.

The Rams’ victory last week pushed this line from 2.5 to 3.5, over the key number of 3, and yet the public continues to be all over the Rams. I love betting against huge public leans whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run. In this case, I think the public is overreacting to one week and underestimating homefield advantage. The Rams could also be flat off of such a big, emotional victory. Teams are 1-10 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of an overtime win as home underdogs. I know it’s a small sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. It’s hard to be confident in the Redskins with Cousins under center and Jackson out, but they should be the right side here.

St. Louis Rams 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

This is one of the toughest games of the week for me, but I’m going with the Chargers for two reasons. For one, I think San Diego is a little bit better. Going into the season, I had them as a 10-win playoff team with the Bengals just outside of the playoffs with 9 wins. Even though right guard DJ Fluker is out for this game with an ankle injury, the Chargers should still have fewer injuries on offense than they did last season, when they had the most offensive adjusted games lost to injury.

Their offensive line and running game are much improved and their receiving corps is more than equipped to deal with the loss of Eddie Royal in free agency and Antonio Gates to suspension, thanks to the addition of Steve Johnson, Danny Woodhead’s return from injury, and talented backup tight end Lardarius Green, all of whom had big games in San Diego’s 33-28 win over Detroit last week. Defensively, they still have major issues in the front 7, but they get Jason Verrett back from injury and have a strong trio of defensive backs in Brandon Flowers, Jason Verrett, and Eric Weddle.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, started off the season with a 33-13 victory in Oakland in a game that was 30-0 before garbage time. Their receiving corps is much healthier than last season, with AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and week 1 star Tyler Eifert all back from injury. They have a strong offensive line and will have a full season of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard working in tandem at running back, as they did so well to end last season. Andy Dalton might not be the best quarterback in the world, but this is his best offensive supporting cast.

Defensively, they add Michael Johnson to a defensive line that really needed it and should get a better season from Geno Atkins, who was one of the best defensive players in the game prior to a 2013 ACL tear, from which he’s now almost 24 months removed. They still have problems on the defensive line, in the linebacking corps, and in the secondary and they’ll be without talented linebacker Vontaze Burfict for at least the start of the season, but they’re a solid squad. It’s hard to pick a team between these two, but I like San Diego. The 2nd reason I’m going with the Chargers here is because the line has moved off of the key number of 3 to 3.5, so we’re not getting field goal protection with the Bengals anymore. I’m not confident, but the Chargers are my pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

The 49ers had an impressive week 1 victory, beating the Vikings 20-3, but I still think they could end up being a 5 or 6 win team. It’s very possible that their week 1 play isn’t representative of how good they’ll be this season and that they were able to take advantage of a Minnesota team that isn’t as ready to take the next step as people think, after losing two key offensive linemen for an extended period of time (center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt) before the season even started.

On paper, the 49ers just don’t look that good, after an 8-win season in 2014 and all they lost this off-season. They lost right tackle Anthony Davis, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, and defensive end Justin Smith to retirement, left guard Mike Iupati, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, and running back Frank Gore to free agency, and outside linebacker Aldon Smith and defensive end Ray McDonald with off-the-field issues.

They did add wide receiver Torrey Smith in free agency and they get cornerback Tramaine Brock, defensive end Glenn Dorsey, defensive tackle Ian Williams, and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman back from injury. They have solid depth, good young players like running back Carlos Hyde, outside linebacker Aaron Lynch, and cornerback Kenneth Acker, and they should have fewer injuries this season, but this still isn’t a very good team.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, won’t be as good offensively this season, after having the fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league last season, already without center Maurkice Pouncey for an extended period of time with injury. They’ll especially struggle to maintain high level offensive play early in the season with stud running back LeVeon Bell and promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant suspended. On the defensive side of the ball, they struggled week 1 against the Patriots, as they did all of last season.

However, I still think we’re getting line value with the Steelers as mere 6.5 point favorites here, especially with cornerback Brandon Boykin expected to play, after surprisingly missing the first game of the season. Boykin is one of the top slot cornerbacks in the NFL and only didn’t play week 1 because he was recently acquired in a trade from Philadelphia and hadn’t gotten the defense down yet. This line suggests that the Steelers are just 3.5 points better than the 49ers, which I disagree with. As long as the line stays under a touchdown, I’m comfortable putting money on Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -6.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)

The Panthers are favored by a field goal here, but the public is actually on the Texans. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on an underdog. The public always loses money in the long run and whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, you usually want to go with the odds makers. The reason the Panthers are favored is because they’ll be without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who is missing the first game of his career after playing the first 49 games, thanks to a concussion. They’ll likely also be without defensive tackle Star Lotulelei for the 2nd straight week with a foot problem.

The Texans aren’t exactly healthy either though, as running back Arian Foster, left tackle Duane Brown, and left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo are all expected out. The Texans’ defense is healthy and will get an added boost this week as Jadeveon Clowney is expected to get his snap limit lifted, after knee surgery limited him to 30 of 70 defensive snaps week 1. The 2014 1st overall pick looked good in limited action last week. However, the Texans’ offense is a mess, with little talent at quarterback and running back, a banged up offensive line, and no #2 receiving threat behind DeAndre Hopkins. I’m not confident, but I’m going with the favorite here.

Carolina Panthers 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)

Earlier in the week, I really liked Chicago here as 2 point home underdogs and was strongly considering putting money on them. The Cardinals had an impressive performance last week at home against the Saints, but that was at home and the Saints aren’t that good. The Bears aren’t that good either, but the Cardinals aren’t at home anymore. The Cardinals are 30-12 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007, but they have no such advantage on the road.

For that reason, they don’t deserve to be 2 point road favorites here. They have Carson Palmer back from injury, but they’ve already lost Andre Ellington with injury again and they weren’t as good as their 11-5 record last season. Arizona’s 11-5 record was buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and their +11 point differential was 2nd worst among qualifying playoff teams. The Cardinals also benefitted from tough to sustain things like a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, and a +4 return touchdown margin. They finished the season just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among playoff teams.

They’re not that much better than a Chicago team that is improved over last season and gave the Packers a fight last week. Jay Cutler should bounce back from the worst season of his career, the addition of Eddie Royal will help make up for the loss of Brandon Marshall, while the addition of Pernell McPhee more than makes up for the loss of Stephen Paea and Tim Jennings defensively. They also should have significantly fewer injuries than they did in 2014, when they were one of the most injury prone teams in the NFL. Importantly, guys like Matt Slauson and LaMarr Houston are back, after missing large chunks of last season. Neither one has a history of injuries so both should bounce back to their original form, which is consistently above average.

I don’t have the Bears as a playoff team or anything, but they were better than their 5-11 record last season (24th in rate of moving the chains differential) and I think they’re better this season than last season. I’m not going to put money on the Bears though, because both top receiver Alshon Jeffery and top edge rusher Pernell McPhee are serious question marks with injury and the line hasn’t really done anything to adjust to that. If the line moves to three or both of those guys end up playing, I may reevaluate, but, for now, I’m just taking the Bears for a low confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 20 Arizona Cardinals 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Chicago +2

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Raiders, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

The Ravens lost by 6 in Denver last week and looked awful offensively. However, they were on the road against one of the best teams and one of the best defenses in the league and they could have won if not for two 55+ yard field goals nailed by Denver kicked Brandon McManus. This week, they get a much easier matchup as they play an Oakland team that might be the worst in the AFC. There was a lot of hope that this would be the year that the Raiders would get out of the cellar, but they played horribly week 1 in a 33-13 home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, a game that was 30-0 before garbage time. They’re better than they were last season, but they’re still one of the least talented teams in the league. The Ravens should have a much easier time of moving the ball against the Raiders, even without left tackle Eugene Monroe and wide receiver Breshad Perriman with injuries. I still have hope for the Ravens as a top AFC team, as I did coming into the season.

The Ravens aren’t nearly as good of a team on the road, or at least they haven’t been in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era. They are 47-11 at home over that time period, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, as opposed to 35-35 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 1.04 points per game. However, they are in their 2nd straight road game, which helps. Teams are 197-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 278-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.10 points per game. This line is too high for me to put money on Baltimore, especially since we don’t know how their defense will handle losing Terrell Suggs for the season with a torn Achilles, but the Ravens should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]