Year: 2015

San Diego Chargers sign OT Joe Barksdale

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Barksdale was shockingly still available this late in free agency. Barksdale was a 3rd round pick of the Raiders in 2011, but he barely played in his first 2 seasons in the league, playing 282 snaps in 2011-2012 combined. He became a starter in 2013 with the Rams, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked offensive tackle in 13 starts. He couldn’t quite match that in 2014, grading out slightly below average in 16 starts, but I still expected him to get signed to a multi-year deal for starter’s money early in free agency. However, Barksdale drew little attention early in free agency and then the Rams drafted Rob Havenstein in the 2nd round to replace him.

As a result, he ends up in San Diego, where I never expected he’d end up, especially this late in free agency. Right tackle wasn’t a huge need for the Chargers as they like 2013 11th overall pick DJ Fluker, but Barksdale still helps their team at a cheap price, 1.35 million over a year. Barksdale slots in at right tackle and moves Fluker inside to right guard, where his issues with pass protection will be masked better, and moves Justin Britt from right guard to center, getting Trevor Robinson out of the starting lineup. The Chargers are actually upgrading 3 spots on the offensive line a little for 1.35 million. This was a savvy move by savvy GM Tom Telesco.

Grade: A

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Miami Dolphins extend QB Ryan Tannehill

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

In total, this is a 6-year, 96 million dollar deal, but Tannehill was already scheduled to make about 18 million over the next 2 years, between the final year of his rookie deal and the 5th year option the Dolphins exercised earlier this off-season. The extension itself is about 78 million over 4 years, so the average is bigger than the 16 million dollar average it seems like at first. However, only about 45 million of the contract is guaranteed, and even that amount is not fully guaranteed. Tannehill will make 25 million over the first 2 seasons of the deal, but, if he flops in those 2 years, the Dolphins can get out of the rest of the deal entirely, as long as they cut him before the start of the league year in 2017. Basically, they’re giving him an extra 7 million over the next 2 years, guaranteeing it fully (before this extension his 2015 salary was just guaranteed for injury), in exchange for having the option of having him under contract for a combined 71 million over 4 years from 2017-2020, with the ability to get out of it at any point during that time period.

Given that what the Dolphins are actually giving Tannehill is not nearly as onerous as the raw numbers suggest, this is a very good deal. Tannehill, the 8th overall pick in 2012, has gotten better in every year of his career, going from a quarterback rating of 76.1 as a rookie to 81.7 in 2013 and then 92.8. Last season, he finished the year completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 6.86 yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.  On the season, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked quarterback. He finished 5th in completion percentage, had a strong TD:INT ratio, with his only subpar area being his YPA average. In his career, he’s been below 7 YPA in every season, including last year.

However, I’m not worried about that for two reasons. One, he wasn’t necessarily inaccurate downfield. The offense just called for him to throw a lot of shorter passes, likely because the Dolphins surprisingly ranked 2nd the NFL in yards per carry (4.69 YPA). Tannehill completed 58.6% of his passes between 10-19 yards downfield, which is better than league average, and, while he only completed 30.2% of his passes 20+ yards downfield, he ranked 22nd out of 38 eligible in accuracy (completions + drops/attempts) 20+ yards downfield, so he wasn’t necessarily bad in that aspect of the game.

Second, I find completion percentage to be a more important stat as high completion percentage often correlates with your offense regularly being on schedule. I realize that Tannehill’s completion percentage is inflated by the types of passes he was attempting and that he owes a lot of that high number to his running game making things easier for him, but the Dolphins finished 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains last season, moving them at a 75.33% rate. Tannehill doesn’t deserve all the credit for that, but he deserves some, especially as he was dealing with poor offensive line play and an average at best receiving corps. Tannehill also contributed to that strong running game, rushing for 311 yards and 1 touchdown on 56 attempts (5.55 YPC). Besides, while the Dolphins ran well on a per play average, they didn’t run that often overall. Including pass attempts, sacks, and quarterback carries, Tannehill was involved on 66.5% of the Dolphins offensive plays last season, one of the highest usage rates in the NFL.

Right now, I’d say Tannehill is one of the top 10-15 quarterbacks in the NFL with the potential to get even better, going into his 4th year in the league, his age 27 season. It’s a fairly low risk deal if Tannehill flops and, if he doesn’t, this is the kind of money you have to pay to keep a quarterback in today’s NFL. Right now, there are 16 quarterbacks, including Tannehill, whose contracts have an average salary of 15+ million dollars in the NFL. Excluding guys on rookie deals, only one other veteran makes more than 5.25 million annually on his contract. There isn’t a middle ground with quarterbacks in today’s NFL. With the salary cap expanding at a rapid pace, almost all of the extra money is going to the most important position on the field, which makes sense.

Grade: A-

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Baltimore Ravens sign CB Kyle Arrington

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Ravens, Uncategorized

The Patriots cut Kyle Arrington earlier this week, voiding the 6.5 million in non-guaranteed money over 2 years remaining on his contract. It was a weird move, as Arrington was a valuable slot cornerback for them, grading out above average in 4 straight seasons, including 21st in 2013, and the Patriots had already lost their starting cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner this off-season. Perhaps they thought they could re-sign him a little cheaper, but the Ravens didn’t let that happen.

The Patriots’ loss is the Ravens’ gain as Kyle Arrington fills arguably their biggest remaining need. Things were so bad at cornerback for the Ravens that Rashaan Melvin, a 2013 undrafted free agent who was signed mid-season and made his NFL debut week 15, drew the start for them in the playoffs. Jimmy Smith’s injury was a big part of the problem, as he missed 8 games, but the problem has been there since last off-season, when they failed to find a replacement for Corey Graham, their talented #3 cornerback who signed with Buffalo. Their depth was shaky coming into the season (#3 cornerback Asa Jackson had never played a defensive snap in the NFL coming into this season) and this kind of situation was foreseeable.

Smith will be back healthy next year, after signing a 4-year, 41 million dollar extension, and Lardarius Webb, who graded out above average in every season from 2009-2013 (including 4th in 2011) could have a bounce back year, but the Ravens were left without a solid 3rd cornerback, only adding Tray Walker in the 4th round through the draft. Getting Arrington on a 3-year, 7.5 million dollar deal with 2.8 million guaranteed and taking him away from another one of the top teams in the AFC is a gift for the Ravens.

Grade: A

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St. Louis Rams trade RB Zac Stacy to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Rams, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: Stacy was the feature back in St. Louis in 2013, but wasn’t that good, rushing for 973 yards and 7 touchdowns on 250 carries, an average of 3.89 yards per carry. The Rams brought in Tre Mason in the 3rd round last year to replace him and then in this year’s drafted they added Todd Gurley 10th overall, feeling they couldn’t pass on someone they felt was the next Adrian Peterson. That pushed Stacy to 3rd or even 4th on the depth chart (behind Benny Cunningham), which made him unhappy. He requested a trade and got one, going to the Jets for a 7th round pick.

The Jets aren’t giving up much here for the 2013 5th round pick, giving up a 7th round pick, and he’s still on a rookie deal so he’ll come very cheap for them. His career 3.88 YPC is partially the product of St. Louis’ poor run blocking. However, Stacy is pretty much a poor man’s version of Chris Ivory and Stevan Ridley who they already have. Like Ivory and Ridley, Stacy is a powerful between the tackles runner, who lacks agility, outside running ability, and pass catching ability (44 catches for 293 yards and a touchdown in 27 games). The Jets still don’t have a good outside the tackles complementary runner and their passing down back Bilal Powell leaves a lot to be desired. Stacy will have a tough time making this roster and carving out a role. I’m surprised they didn’t add a running back through the draft.

Grade: B

Trade for Rams: You can question whether or not the Rams made the right move at 10 overall, taking a player who doesn’t address a major need, but once they made that deal, they kind of had to do something with Zac Stacy. He wanted out and Benny Cunningham offers more in terms of versatility as a 3rd running back. This isn’t a great deal or anything, but credit them for at least getting something for him. Given that Stacy likely won’t make the Jets’ roster, they’re slight winners here.

Grade: B+

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Houston Texans sign S Stevie Brown

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Stevie Brown, a 2010 7th round pick, played just 151 snaps combined in 2010 and 2011, but had a breakout year in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked safety. Unfortunately for him, he tore his ACL and missed his entire contract year in 2013 and was forced to settle for a one year deal back with the Giants to rehab his value. His 2014 season was a mixed bag. He graded out about average and played all 16 games, but he made just 8 starts and played just 559 snaps as he was benched for a stretch in the middle of the season.

As a result, he was forced to settle for this deal that’s near the NFL minimum (825K) for one-year and the Texans are getting a good deal on a guy that should at least be a replacement level starter. He’ll be an upgrade over DJ Swearinger, a 2013 2nd round pick who graded out 78th out of 87 eligible safeties last season. Swearinger wasn’t drafted by the current coaching staff, who isn’t thrilled with him and his unwillingness to play special teams, so they’re expected to trade or cut him, despite his youth. It wasn’t a good safety class in free agency, but the Texans got two of the top safeties on the market (Rahim Moore) without spending much money at all.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos sign TE James Casey

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

Casey was signed by the Eagles following the 2012 season to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. He was expected to be a jack of all traits matchup nightmare in Chip Kelly’s offense, but struggled to make it onto the field, playing a combined 330 snaps in 2 seasons in Philadelphia behind both Brent Celek and Zach Ertz, before being an easy cap casualty this off-season. He’s going into his age 31 season in 2015, but he’s had success with Denver Head Coach Kubiak before and they’re only paying him 1.25 million over 1 year, a fraction of what he was making in Philadelphia.

He’ll likely reprise his old role from Houston, where he played 609 snaps in 2012 under Kubiak, despite the fact that the Texans had Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham. Kubiak frequently uses two tight ends and a fullback. He’ll do that less this season in Denver because of Peyton Manning, but Casey will see a lot of playing time at fullback. He’s was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked fullback in 2011 and 10th ranked fullback in 2012. This is a solid cheap pickup by the Broncos, getting a decent player who has scheme familiarity and fill a need.

Grade: B+

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Houston Texans extend OLB Whitney Mercilus

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

This is the classic case of a team overpaying for a marginal talent. Mercilus has largely been disappointing since the Texans drafted him 26th overall in 2012. Mercilus has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the NFL, including 28th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and 42nd out of 42 eligible in 2013. He’s coming off of the best season of his career in 2014, but he still only graded out 35th out of 46 eligible, particularly struggling as a pass rusher.

Mercilus was going into his contract year in 2015, but he wouldn’t have been hard to replace. The Texans certainly didn’t need to pay him 26 million over 4 years, including 10.8 million guaranteed. Even if the Texans thought internally that Mercilus was due for a breakout year, they should have just picked up his option for 2016. That option is guaranteed for injury only, so the Texans would have, barring a serious injury, had the option to go back on that option next off-season, which would have given them much more flexibility than this. This deal is a premature overpay at best.

Grade: C

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2015 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Updated 4/30/15

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Jameis Winston (Florida State)

2. Tennessee Titans – QB Marcus Mariota (Oregon)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dante Fowler (Florida)

4. Oakland Raiders – DT Leonard Williams (USC)

5. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) – DE Vic Beasley (Clemson)

6. New York Jets – WR Amari Cooper (Alabama)

7. Chicago Bears – WR Kevin White (West Virginia)

8. Washington Redskins – OT Brandon Scherff (Iowa)

9. New York Giants – OT Andrus Peat (Stanford)

10. St. Louis Rams – OT Ereck Flowers (Miami)

11. Minnesota Vikings – WR Devante Parker (Louisville)

12. Cleveland Browns – DT Danny Shelton (Washington)

13. New Orleans Saints – OLB Alvin Dupree (Kentucky)

14. Miami Dolphins – RB Todd Gurley (Georgia)

15. San Francisco 49ers – DE Arik Armstead (Oregon)

16. Houston Texans – CB Trae Waynes (Michigan State)

17. San Diego Chargers – RB Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin)

18. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest)

19. Cleveland Browns – WR Breshad Perriman (Central Florida)

20. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Nelson Agholor (USC)

21. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Eric Fisher (Oregon)

22. Pittsburgh Steelers – S Landon Collins (Alabama)

23. Detroit Lions – DT Malcom Brown (Texas)

24. Arizona Cardinals – DT Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma)

25. Carolina Panthers – OT DJ Humphries (Florida)

26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Byron Jones (Connecticut)

27. Dallas Cowboys – OLB Benadrick McKinney (Mississippi State)

28. Denver Broncos – C Cameron Erving (Florida State)

29. Indianapolis Colts – S Damarious Randall (Arizona State)

30. Green Bay Packers – CB Eric Rowe (Utah)

31. New Orleans Saints – WR Phillip Dorsett (Miami)

32. New England Patriots – DT Eddie Goldman (Florida State)

Results:

Match player to team: 10

Match player to slot: 6

Match team to position: 16

Match player to round: 26

Miami Dolphins sign WR Greg Jennings

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

The Vikings signed Jennings to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, expecting to get the guy who had 3 seasons of 1000 yards or more in Green Bay. However, Jennings wasn’t able to come close to those numbers without Aaron Rodgers, averaging 64 catches for 773 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 seasons in Minnesota. He’s now going into his age 32 season and hasn’t had a 1000+ yard season since 2010. He also hasn’t graded out in the top-40 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus since 2011. He’s an aging, declining, marginal player.

The Vikings cut Jennings to save 9 million in cash and 5 million in cap space this off-season. The Dolphins are getting him much cheaper, 8 million over 2 years, with nothing guaranteed beyond the first year. It’s an appropriate value for him, but usually teams get better than appropriate values for players this late in the off-season. It’s not a bad deal, but considering the younger Michael Crabtree got just 3 million over 1 year, I was a little surprised to see Jennings got this much at this stage of the off-season. He’ll fill in a need in Miami as the 3rd receiver behind Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry, but this signing won’t preclude the Dolphins from using an early pick on a receiver in the draft.

Grade: B

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Baltimore Ravens extend CB Jimmy Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Ravens, Uncategorized

This was originally reported to be a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal, but that’s not entirely accurate. Smith’s contract is worth 48 million, but that’s including the 6.9 million dollar player option he has for 2015. This contract is actually “only” worth 41.1 million in new money over 4 years. That’s an average of 10.275 million annually in new money, good for 6th highest in the NFL among cornerbacks. Smith is guaranteed 21 million over the first 2 years of the deal, including a 13 million dollar signing bonus, and has non-guaranteed salaries of 8.5 million, 9 million, and 9.5 million in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Simply put, it’s a lot of money. As I mentioned, it’s the 6th most expensive contract in terms of average annual salary among cornerbacks in the NFL. Smith has played like that at times. A 1st round pick in 2011, Smith moved into the starting lineup in 2012, after impressing on 256 snaps as a rookie, and has improved in every season as a starter, grading out 112th (2nd worst in the NFL) in 2012, 35th in 2013, and 20th in 2014. He was even better than that suggests in 2012 as he did that on 476 snaps, missing 8 games with a foot injury. Through the first 7 games of the season, before his injury, he was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback, including 4th in pure coverage grade, allowing 51.3% completion and 4.18 yards per attempt on 39 attempts.

The Ravens are obviously banking that Smith continues developing into one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, going into his age 27 season. That certainly could happen, but this deal seems to have way more downside than upside. Best case scenario, Smith becomes one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL and the Ravens are paying him appropriately. But there’s also a strong chance that Smith never really consistently shows top level ability or gets hurt again (he’s missed 17 games in 4 seasons in the NFL). It’s not a terrible deal, but it is an overpay by a team that already has a bunch of large contracts on their books going forward.

Grade: C+

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