Year: 2015

Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: The Jets surrendered a 5th round pick for Brandon Marshall in this deal, much like they surrendered a 6th round pick mid-season to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. Marshall is older than Harvin, going into his age 31 season, but I think this is a much better deal than the Harvin deal. Related, this deal allowed the Jets to release Percy Harvin and avoid paying him a 10.5 million dollar salary in 2015. All in all, the Jets paid 7.2 million and a 6th round pick for Harvin and got 29 catches, 20 kickoff returns, and 22 carries in a lost season, overall a head-scratching move by the Jets.

Back to Marshall, he’s coming off of a down season, catching 61 passes for 721 yards and 8 touchdowns. The catches and yards were both his lowest since his rookie year. He was limited by an ankle injury all season and missed the final 3 games of the season after suffering a collapsed lung in a game. However, Marshall had missed a combined 4 games in his previous 7 seasons and, even going into his age 31 season, he should be able to bounce back for at least two more good seasons. In addition to being incredibly durable prior to 2014, he was also incredibly consistent, catching at least 80 passes for 1000 yards in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons of 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. Even with the down year last year, he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons, including 8th in 2012, and 1st in 2013. The 7.7 million they’ll pay him in 2015 is pretty reasonable for him and his 8.1 million dollar salary for 2016 is non-guaranteed.

Grade: A-

Trade for Bears: The Bears’ new regime seemed pretty determined to move on from Marshall over the past week so in that sense credit them for getting a 5th round pick for him. The question I have is why they were so willing to get rid of him. Sure, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off a down year, but, as I illustrated above, he should be able to bounce back and his scheduled salary for 2015 wasn’t much. Marshall has been notorious for not always being liked by his coaches and teammates and suffers from borderline personality disorder so that might have played a role in his departure, but he’s still a good football player with good football left in him. This move leaves the Bears with not only a huge hole opposite Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver, but they also still need help at the #3 wide receiver spot as Marquess Wilson is still incredibly unproven, with 462 snaps played in 2 years since the Bears drafted him in the 7th round in 2013. I don’t understand this move by them.

Grade: C

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New York Jets re-sign MLB David Harris

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

David Harris is, by all reports, a nice guy, a likeable teammate, and easy to coach. He’s been a defensive captain and signal caller for the Jets defensively for years and he’s been a leader on and off the field. I feel like that gets him overpaid. Four off-seasons ago, Harris signed a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Jets, even though he graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the league and then just 21st and 25th respectively in 2009 and 2010. The Jets kept him through the duration of that deal even though he graded out below average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 48th out of 53 eligible in 2012, and maxed out at 18th. He was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked middle linebacker in 2014.

He doesn’t get quite as much money the 2nd time around, 21.5 million over 3 years with 15 million guaranteed, but he’s also going into his age 31 season. This is still an overpay. I understand it’s a very weak middle linebacker class in free agency and the draft as well to some extent. Outside of Harris and Rolando McClain, who has a tough record off-the-field, there really isn’t much in terms of free agent middle linebackers, which makes it a player’s market. However, guaranteeing player who is a solid starter at best 15 million for his age 31 and 32 seasons isn’t the right move. Something in the neighborhood of 3-year, 15 million with 6 million guaranteed would have been more appropriate.

Grade: C

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Carolina Panthers extend TE Greg Olsen

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Panthers, Uncategorized

Olsen was originally owed 5.25 million dollars in a contract year in 2015. This deal adds on 22.5 million over 3 years to the deal, gives him a 12 million dollar signing bonus, and keeps one of the best tight ends in the game under contract at a reasonable rate into the future. Olsen is going into his age 30 season, but this deal isn’t too long-term and he’s coming off of the first 1000+ yard season of his career in 2014, one of just two tight ends in the NFL to do that last season (Rob Gronkowski is the other one). Also an adequate blocker, Olsen graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked tight end last season, with only Jason Witten between him and Gronk.

He’s no one year wonder either as he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 1st round in 2007, including above average as a pass catcher in all 8 seasons. He’s not flashy, but he’s productive (3 straight seasons of 800+ receiving yards), he doesn’t have a weakness, and he’s a huge part of Carolina’s offense. He also hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2007. This was a smart move by the Panthers. My only issue is how much money they gave him up front combined with his age. It’s a bit of a stretch to say he’s going to decline significantly in a year or two, but if he does, the Panthers won’t be able to get more than half the value of this extension back.

Grade: A-

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Minnesota Vikings trade QB Matt Cassel to the Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Buffalo: Cassel is hardly a good quarterback, but he still instantly becomes the best quarterback on the Bills’ roster. They had a desperate need at the quarterback position after veteran Kyle Orton retired, leaving them with 2013 1st round bust EJ Manuel. Aside from a disastrous 2012 season in Kansas City, Cassel has been solid in his career. In his career, he’s completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 96 touchdowns, and 70 interceptions.

In the last season he saw significant action, Cassel completed 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible, not terrible, which is really all the Bills are looking for at this point. Sure, Cassel is going into his age 33 season, coming off of a lost season with injury, and completed just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 5.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions before going down last season, but he’s still better than almost every quarterback available in free agency this off-season.

The price the Bills paid for Cassel wasn’t much, a 4.75 million dollar salary and cap number in 2015, a 2016 7th round pick, and a swap of a 2015 5th round pick for a 2015 6th round pick. It’s certainly better than the 6.25 million guaranteed the Browns gave Josh McCown, who the Bills were also interested in this off-season. It’s comparable to or better than giving this same kind of money to the likes of Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer in free agency. I don’t love the move for the Bills, but it’s kind of the move they had to make.

Grade: B

Trade for Minnesota: Minnesota comes out the winner here, though both sides should be happy with this deal. Cassel wasn’t worth 4.75 million to them given that Teddy Bridgewater, their 2014 1st round pick, broke out as their quarterback of the future in Cassel’s absence last season, completing 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. There’s a very good chance they were planning on making him a salary cap casualty so credit the Vikings for getting something for him and freeing up a good amount of cap space. The Vikings can find a backup for Bridgewater at less than half of Cassel’s salary.

Grade: A

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San Francisco 49ers sign DE Darnell Dockett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The Cardinals cut Darnell Dockett last week, saving 6.8 million on the cap by avoiding paying him a non-guaranteed 6.8 million dollar salary. Dockett isn’t getting nearly that much with San Francisco, as he signed for 7.5 million over 2 years with just 2 million in the first year guaranteed. However, that’s still too much. Anything more than a minimum deal with incentives for Dockett would have been too much. Dockett is going into his age 34 season after missing all of 2014 with a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem.

He wasn’t that good before the injury either as he was perennially one of the NFL’s most overrated players, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. The 49ers have a need at the 3-4 defensive end position with Ray McDonald getting kicked off the team with off-the-field problems and Justin Smith considering retirement, going into his age 36 season, but giving Dockett starter’s money and counting on Dockett to start is a mistake. The Cardinals should feel happy that they stuck their divisional rival with a dud.

Grade: D

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Baltimore Ravens 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Things were so bad at cornerback for the Ravens that Rashaan Melvin, a 2013 undrafted free agent who was signed mid-season and made his NFL debut week 15, drew the start for them in the playoffs. Jimmy Smith’s injury was a big part of the problem, but the problem has been there since last off-season, when they failed to find a replacement for Corey Graham, their talented #3 cornerback who signed with Buffalo. Their depth was shaky coming into the season (#3 cornerback Asa Jackson had never played a defensive snap in the NFL coming into this season) and this kind of situation was foreseeable. Smith will be back healthy next year, but Lardarius Webb could be an off-season cap casualty. He hasn’t been the same since a 2012 ACL tear and the Ravens would save 2 million on the cap and 8 million in cash by cutting him this off-season. Even if he sticks around, they need a 3rd cornerback.

Wide Receiver

The Ravens are pretty backed up against the cap so re-signing Torrey Smith is a luxury they probably won’t be able to afford. Steve Smith led the team in receiving with 79 catches for 1065 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, there’s a very good chance that’s his last 1000 yard season and that he’s due for a big dropoff in production soon, as he’s going into his age 36 season. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Marlon Brown could start in Torrey Smith’s absence, but the 2013 undrafted free agent graded out 82nd out 111 eligible wide receivers as a rookie in 2013 and then proceeded to play just 379 snaps in 2014. Depth is definitely needed at the position.

Tight End

Given how thin the Ravens are at wide receiver, their lack of tight end depth is especially concerning. Dennis Pitta caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2012, but has played just 7 games since then thanks to a hip injury. He’ll be back as his 5 million dollar salary is fully guaranteed, but there’s no guarantee he can stay healthy, play a big role, or play well, as he’s going into his age 30 season having suffered two hip dislocations. Owen Daniels was the starter in his absence in 2014, but he might not be back, as a free agent going into his age 33 season. Michael Campanero was drafted in the 3rd round in 2014 and could be ready for a bigger role in 2015, after grading out above average on 376 snaps as a rookie, but they should still add at the position this off-season.

Running Back

Justin Forsett was a godsend at running back for the Ravens after the Ray Rice incident, rushing for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries, an average of 5.39 YPC. However, he’s a free agent now and might not be back. There’s also debate about whether or not they should even bring him back as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak was largely responsible for his success and now he’s gone. He’s also going into his age 30 season already and has only surpassed 118 carries and 627 yards once in his career. Behind him, Lorenzo Taliaferro is an unproven 2014 4th round pick with 68 career carries, while Bernard Pierce has a mere 3.78 YPC average in his career.

Defensive End

Haloti Ngata and Chris Canty led the Ravens in snaps played by 3-4 defensive ends last season, but they are going into their age 31 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2015, both of which happen to be contract years. Both players are cap casualty candidates because the Ravens are backed up against the cap and can save a significant amount of cap space by letting one or both of these players go.

Key Free Agents

OLB Pernell McPhee

Pernell McPhee graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 despite playing just 540 snaps. He was 2nd in the NFL behind only JJ Watt with 21 quarterback hits. He’s not a one year wonder as that type of player either as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle as a 5th round rookie in 2011 on just 348 snaps and has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. Supremely versatile with experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 4-3 defensive end, a 3-4 defensive end, and a 4-3 defensive tackle, McPhee is only going into his age 27 season and could break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game in his next home if he’s given a bigger role. At the same time, he’s still never played more than 540 snaps in a season so he’s still unproven as a full-time starter and he’s still unproven outside of Baltimore, where they have such great supporting talent defensively. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 8 million dollars per year. The Ravens have good depth at 3-4 outside linebacker with Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, and Courtney Upshaw so they’re unlikely to bring McPhee back, given how little cap space they have.

WR Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league. He’ll probably be paid around 7 million dollars annually (between what Golden Tate and Eric Decker got last off-season) and that’s probably a little rich for him. He’s probably out of the Ravens’ price range too.

RB Justin Forsett

Coming into 2014, Justin Forsett was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. However, Forsett took advantage of the Ray Rice situation and rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. His 5.08 career average is very nice, but he’s already going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. After breaking out in Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme in 2014, a union with the Atlanta Falcons makes sense for both sides. The Falcons have a running back need after cutting Steven Jackson and Kubiak disciple Kyle Shanahan is the offensive coordinator there.

TE Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008 and has missed 27 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He’s also going into his age 33 season. However, he had a decent season in 2014, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 attempts (66.7%) and 410 routes run (1.29 yards per route run) in 15 games. He’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in each of the last 4 seasons and he’s a decent run blocker too. He’s a borderline starter with little long-term upside and should be paid like one, but he could still be a solid veteran addition for a team. He’s played his whole career for Gary Kubiak, first in Houston where he was head coach and then Baltimore where he was offensive coordinator, and could follow Kubiak to Denver, where the Broncos are in need of a tight end with Julius Thomas likely to leave in free agency.

S Darian Stewart

Stewart is a 2010 undrafted free agent who impressed on 196 snaps as a rookie, grading out above average, but was forced into a starting role too early in 2011, as he graded out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season. As a result, he played just 82 snaps in 2012, but he’s rehabbed his value in the last two seasons. In 2013, he graded out only slightly below average on 583 snaps and then in 2014 he graded out above average for the first time since his rookie season on 782 snaps (14 starts). Stewart is an unspectacular player, but he hits the open market as a fringe starter in a league with lack of depth at the safety position and could make a decent amount of money on the open market. With Will Hill, Matt Elam, and Terrence Brooks under contract for 2015, the cap strapped Ravens will likely not be bringing him back this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Chris Canty

Chris Canty was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle as recently as 2012 and graded out above average as recently as 2013, but he graded out below average on just 360 snaps in 2014. That’s especially concerning considering he’s entering his age 33 season. Also concerning is the fact that he missed 5 games with injury. The last season he played all 16 games was 2011 and he’s missed 13 games over the past 3 seasons combined. The Ravens would save 2.66 million by cutting him. They wouldn’t miss him much and need to cut unnecessary players with significant cap numbers.

CB Lardarius Webb

Lardarius Webb was given a 6-year, 52.742 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2011. However, Webb tore his ACL in 2012, seemed to bounce back in 2013, grading out 19th, but regressed mightily in 2014, grading out 78th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. He missed 3 games with injury and was limited in countless others with back problems. Webb has missed 16 games in 6 seasons and has injury issues that date back to his collegiate days so he’s an injury risk going forward. He could bounce back next year, but the Ravens are backed up against the cap and might opt to let him go. The Ravens can only save 2 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season, but they’d save 8 million in cash and have him off their cap completely for 2016. Designating him as a June 1st cut another option. That would free up more cap space this year, but he’d still be on their cap for 2016.

DE Haloti Ngata

Haloti Ngata’s name has been mentioned as someone who could be cut. The Ravens are backed up against the cap and can save 8.5 million on the cap and in cash by cutting Ngata ahead of his contract year. A better solution would be to give him an extension that immediately lowers his contract number and keeps him under contract for 2016 and beyond, as they did with Terrell Suggs last off-season. Ngata is going into his age 31 season, but he’s still a very valuable player. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007.

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Washington Redskins sign DE Ricky Jean-Francois

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

In Ricky Jean-Francois’ first trip to the open market in two off-seasons ago, he was given a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal by the Colts, a very weird move considering RJF had played just 715 snaps in 4 season with the 49ers from 2009-2012, after they drafted him in the 7th round. He did flash, grading out above average in both 2010 and 2011, but he didn’t deserve that kind of deal then and it predictably didn’t end well. The Colts cut him this off-season after two seasons. He made 23 starts in 26 games with the Colts and graded out about average in both seasons, but the Colts didn’t see him as worth his salary for 2015.

His second trip to the open market went differently, as the Redskins signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed. That’s much more appropriate for him. He’ll slot in as a starter opposite Jason Hatcher at 3-4 defensive end for the Redskins and be an immediate upgrade over Jarvis Jenkins, who graded out 45th out of 47 eligible at his position in 2014. Jenkins is a free agent, while overpaid, aging reserves Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, who both struggled mightily last season, are expected to be cut.

Grade: A-

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign WR Cole Beasley

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Cole Beasley is an ascending slot receiver who has seen his snaps go up in every season since he went undrafted in 2012, playing 128 snaps in 2012, 247 snaps in 2013, and 443 snaps in 2014, grading out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2014, he caught 37 passes for 420 yards and 4 touchdowns on 48 targets (77.1%) and 308 routes run (1.36 yards per route run). The Cowboys could have kept him in the 2 million dollar range for 2015 as a restricted free agent on a 2nd round tender, but instead decided to commit to him long-term with this 4-year, 13.6 million dollar deal that will guarantee him 7 million over the first 2 seasons. It’s a gamble because he’s still relatively unproven, but it could pay off as he could have gotten a deal similar to the one Doug Baldwin got last off-season (3 years, 13 million with 8.5 million guaranteed) on the open market next off-season if he had another solid season.

Grade: B-

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Buffalo Bills trade MLB Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia Eagles for RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Eagles, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: I’m probably going against the grain with this, but I love this deal. People are wondering who will replace McCoy. Well, it’s a deep running back draft and a deep running back free agency class. It’s going to be tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2013 production, when he rushed for 1607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 314 carries (5.12 YPC) and added 52 catches for 539 yards and another two touchdowns. It’s not going to be that tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2014 production, when he rushed for 1319 yards and 5 touchdowns on 312 carries (4.23 YPC) and added just 28 catches for 155 yards.

McCoy could bounce back in 2015, but there’s evidence to suggest he won’t. He’s only graded out higher than 10th among running backs on Pro Football Focus once in 6 years in the league (2013) and he’s going into his age 27 season with 1761 touches at a position that doesn’t have a long lifespan. He’s a good, not great running back in a league where running backs rarely get the kind of money McCoy is still owed over the next 3 seasons (24.25 million).

Kiko Alonso, meanwhile, is owed just 1.7 million over the next 2 seasons on his rookie deal. Like McCoy, he had a strong 2013 that he didn’t replicate in 2014. Alonso graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked middle linebacker in 2013, but missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL. However, I like his chances of bouncing back more than McCoy because he’s only going into his age 25 season at a position with a much longer lifespan. A torn ACL is hard to recover from, but Alonso suffered that injury back in June of 2014 and has youth on his side.

He’ll be an obvious upgrade over DeMeco Ryans, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013, before missing 8 games with a torn Achilles in 2014. He and Mychal Kendricks will be a strong, young middle linebacker duo for the Eagles inside. The Eagles also will save 6.9 million on the cap by letting Ryans go. Between that and the 8.55 million they saved from trading McCoy, this move saves them about 15 million on the cap (Alonso’s cap number for the Eagles will be about 750K this season). That’s a significant amount for a team that figures to be major players in free agency. This move could allow them to add someone like Devin McCourty to their secondary and have cap room left over.

Grade: A

Trade for Bills: I don’t hate this deal for the Bills as much as I love it for the Eagles. The reason for that is that Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham both broke out as every down linebackers for the Bills in 2014 in Alonso’s absence and they could still re-sign Brandon Spikes, a solid two-down run stopper. However, you still don’t trade a younger, cheaper player for an older, more expensive player, at a position with a shorter careerspan. I would have liked to see the Bills pick up some sort of draft pick in this deal. I’m not sure McCoy would have gotten 24.25 million over 3 years on the open market if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving up that and a talented young linebacker for him. It’s not a good deal.

Grade: D

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Carolina Panthers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Offensive Tackle

Byron Bell was arguably the weakest starting left tackle in the NFL going into the season and he played about as expected, grading out 85th out of 86 eligible offensive tackles. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Panthers desperately need to find an upgrade. On the right side, Nate Chandler was also a disaster, grading out 68th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles in 11 games before going down for the season with an injury. Even if Mike Remmers, a 2014 undrafted free agent who played well at right tackle down the stretch in Chandler’s absence, is the solution on the right side, they still need help on the left side and they could easily need to add two offensive tackles.

Wide Receiver

The Panthers were one of five teams with two 1000+ yard receivers (Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans, Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders). However, that was largely because they didn’t have any receiving options after Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. Those two received 49.25% of the Panthers targets, the highest percentage by any two teammates. Olsen is a tight end anyway. They desperately need wide receiver help after Benjamin on the depth chart. The Panthers’ next three wide receivers (Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and Philly Brown) combined for just 4 more targets than Benjamin. Cotchery is going into his age 33 season, Avant was cut mid-season, Brown is just a slot receiver that went undrafted in 2014, and all 3 of them graded out below average in pass catching grade.

Cornerback

Antoine Cason led Panther cornerbacks in snaps played last season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 97th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible last season and was cut before the end of the season. Josh Norman, Melvin White, and Bene Benwikere were next in snaps played. Norman and Benwikere both graded out above average, but Norman graded out below average as a 5th round rookie in 2012 and then again in 2013, while Benwikere was a mere 5th round rookie this season, so both of them are hard to trust into 2015. White, meanwhile, graded out 94th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014. He’s graded out below average in both seasons since he went undrafted in 2013. They could add this off-season.

Safety

Roman Harper and Thomas DeCoud were signed as reclamation projects last off-season for the Panthers. DeCoud graded out below average in 2012 and 2013, including 82nd out of 86 eligible in 2013. Harper, meanwhile, graded out below average in 2011, 2012, and 2013, including 86th out of 88 eligible in 2012. Harper was decent in 2014, but he’s going into his age 33 season, while DeCoud once again graded out below average. Reserve Tre Boston was decent, but he was an inexperienced 4th round rookie, so they could still add at the position this off-season.

Defensive End

The Panthers have already said they won’t be re-signing Greg Hardy, after suspending him for 15 games as a result of off-the-field issues. They didn’t fare well opposite Charles Johnson in his absence last season as Wes Horton, Mario Addison, and Kony Ealy graded out 49th, 39th, and 56th respectively out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Kony Ealy was a 2nd round pick in 2014, so he could be better in 2015 and he’s still a big part of their future plans, but they need to add to the position.

Tight End

Wide receiver isn’t the only place where the Panthers have depth problems in the receiving corps. Ed Dickson was predictably horrible as their #2 tight end last season, grading out 60th out of 67 eligible. He was Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked tight end out of 64 eligible in 2013 with Baltimore before the Panthers signed him so that shouldn’t have been a surprise and they shouldn’t bring him back as a free agent. Adding a 2nd tight end would help this offense.

Key Free Agents

DE Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy had such a bright future at this time last year, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013 and their 6th ranked in 2012. The Panthers, eager to keep him long-term, franchised tagged Hardy last off-season, guaranteeing him 13.1 million for 2015, but they would end up regretting that. Hardy was arrested for and convicted of domestic violence in the off-season. He was allowed by the NFL to play for the Panthers week 1 because he was appealing the verdict, but public pressure forced the Panthers inactivate Hardy for the final 15 games of the season, meaning the Panthers got just 1 game for that 13.1 million. Hardy is still young (going into his age 27 season), still talented, and got the charges dropped this off-season, but he could be rusty, he got the charges dropped on a technicality, he’s still facing a suspension from the NFL, and he remains an off-the-field risk long-term. The Panthers have already said they’re moving on from him. It’ll be interesting to see what his market is this off-season. If he’s smart, he’ll take a one-year deal, bet on himself, stay clean and make a boatload of money next off-season.

G Fernando Velasco

Fernando Velasco was the Titans’ 11th ranked center in 2012, but the Titans still made him a final cut the following off-season. It was a curious move at the time, but now it makes a little bit more sense. That 2012 season is very uncharacteristic when you look at his whole career. The only other season he’s graded out above average since entering the league in 2008 was 2011, when he played just 28 snaps. Since being released by the Titans, he graded out below average on 758 snaps at center in 2013 in Pittsburgh in place of an injured Maurkice Pouncey and below average on 407 snaps at guard in 2014 with the Panthers. He’s a reserve interior offensive lineman.

DT Dwan Edwards

Dwan Edwards has graded out below average in each of the last 5 seasons, averaging 595 snaps per season over that time period. In 2014, he graded out 63rd out of 81 eligible defensive tackles on 591 snaps. Going into his age 34 season, things aren’t going to get better. He won’t draw a big market this off-season and might end up retiring. If he plays next year, he’ll probably be signed late in the off-season and have a small role.

TE Ed Dickson

Ed Dickson has graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL (4 with the Ravens and the last one with the Panthers) since the Ravens drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s been especially bad in each of the past 2 seasons, grading out 63rd out of 64 eligible tight end in 2013 and 60th out of 67 eligible in 2014. He’s a fringe roster player.

OT Byron Bell

Byron Bell is experienced, with 56 starts in 4 seasons since the Panthers signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2011, but he’s not very good. He was horrible to start his career at right tackle, grading out 69th out of 76 eligible in 2011, 61st out of 80 eligible in 2012, and 53rd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Predictably, he wasn’t better in 2014 when forced to play the blindside, grading out 83rd out of 84 eligible. He’s a swing tackle at best and not a very good one. The Panthers have already said they aren’t going to be bringing him back in any capacity

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB DeAngelo Williams

The Panthers signed DeAngelo Williams to a massive 5-year, 43 million dollar deal in the 2011 off-season and, even after a restructured contract with a severe pay cut given to him two off-seasons ago, the Panthers are only now at the point where they can release Williams as a post-June cut and save on the cap. They’ll only save 2 million on the cap by doing that and they won’t even have him completely off their cap until 2017, but they’ll save 2 million in cash and Williams is going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he missed 10 games with injury and averaged just 3.53 yards per carry. Jonathan Stewart is much younger and played way better last season.

FB Mike Tolbert

Mike Tolbert has had some good years, but he’s coming off of a season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked fullback out of 23eligible. He could bounce back in 2015, but he’s going into his age 30 season and his 2.45 million dollar salary is a lot for a fullback who isn’t one of the best in the NFL so he might not even be worth his salary even if he does bounce back. The Panthers can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

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