Year: 2015

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence would be huge and that Indianapolis was a good home team and overall the better team on the season, but Cincinnati was the better of the two teams in the 2nd half of the season by a significant margin as their defense got it together as the season went on.

The Colts came into the playoffs as the 2nd worst team in the 2nd half of the season in rate of moving the chains differential when adjusted for schedule at -0.21, only ahead of Detroit at -1.18%. The Colts went 6-2 in their final 8 games, but their 6 wins came against the likes of Jacksonville, Washington, Tennessee, Houston, Cleveland and the New York Giants and they didn’t beat them by enough to offset the fact that they were crushed by the only two playoff teams they faced over that time period, Dallas and New England. Their offense was the unit that declined the most significantly and it’s easy to understand why given that Andrew Luck’s play slipped and players got hurt, most importantly Ahmad Bradshaw, who was playing fantastic football before going down.

The Colts beat the Bengals last week, but I still am not convinced they’re quite able to match up with top level competition. The Bengals were a solid team this season, but ranked 12th, 8th, and 6th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams on the season, in their final 8 games, and in their final 4 games respectively, and they were missing AJ Green. Besides, that game was at home, where they’ve been significantly better this season than on the road.

At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 75.89% rate this season, as opposed to 66.39% for their opponents (a differential of 9.50%), and on the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 73.93% for their opponents (a differential of 0.09%). This is nothing new, as the Colts are 21-5 straight up at home in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.23 points per game, while they are 14-12 straight up on the road over that same time period (since 2012), getting outscored by an average of 2.58 points per game, a swing of almost 9 points.

They’re just 2-9 ATS on the road over that time period against teams with winning records. Of their 8 straight up losses against winning teams on the road over that time period, all 14 of them have come by two touchdowns or more. This season, they were 0-3 against playoff teams on the road, losing those 3 games by margins of 7, 17, and 35. Their closest game was a 24-17 loss in Denver week 1. They did cover the spread (it doesn’t factor in to that 2-9 ATS record because Denver was 0-0 at the time), but only by half a point, as the line was 7.5 points. However, they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in that game, as opposed to 82.35% for Denver (a differential of -7.35%), so it wasn’t quite as close as the final score suggested (Denver led 24-0 at one point) and their history against good teams on the road suggests this game won’t be quite as close.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Denver kind of limps into the playoffs. They finished the regular season #1 in both rate of moving the chains differential and rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule at 6.77% and 6.92% respectively, but just 9th among playoff teams in schedule adjusted in their final 4 games at 3.00%, as their offense slipped to end the season and Peyton Manning didn’t look quite as good. Still, I think they have a good chance to hand the Colts another big disappointing road loss to a tough opponent (having Julius Thomas and Brandon Marshall back and healthy after the bye could be key), and, as long as this line is a touchdown or lower, I’m going to make a significant play on them.

Denver Broncos 34 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -7

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4)

I was ready to make a big play on the Patriots this week. They haven’t looked good in a while. With most teams, that’s a concern, but that’s never been a concern with the Patriots in the Brady/Belichick era. In fact, short periods of struggles tend to wake up this team. The Patriots are 19-12 ATS with a healthy Tom Brady in his career off of 2 straight non-covers, 33-15 ATS off of a loss, and 12-6 ATS off of a loss when they also failed to cover in the previous game. Their last two games should motivate them more than anything and Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL at adjustments. Besides, you have to remember that those rough two games to end of the season were a road game in New York against the Jets, who always play them tough (4 straight matchups within 3 points, including a 27-25 Patriots win in New England earlier this season), and a meaningless game against a decent Bills team in which Tom Brady only played a half and a lot of starters didn’t even play.

Despite those two games, the Patriots come in ranked 5th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the past 4 games at 6.82% and 2nd in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the past 8 games at 11.27% (only behind Seattle at 11.68%). In their last 11 games that actually mattered, they move the chains at an 80.87% rate, as opposed to 71.51% for their opponents. The difference isn’t really on defense, as they allowed opponents to move the chains at a similar 72.00% rate in their first 4 games of the season. The difference is on offense, as they moved the chains at a 66.38% rate in their first 4 games.

What’s changed? Well, the offensive line eventually settled in and Tom Brady’s play improved and Bill Belichick coached teams always make the right mid-season adjustments and improve as the season goes on, but the biggest difference is Rob Gronkowski. After struggling in his first 4 games back from that torn ACL, Rob Gronkowski played some of the best football of his life over that 11 game stretch, catching 69 passes for 977 yards and 9 touchdowns and that made a huge difference. He was once again one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the NFL this season, which is what he always has been when healthy. He’s caught 294 passes for 4231 yards and 49 touchdowns in his last 57 games and he averages 2.41 yards per route run in his 5 year career. For comparison, Jimmy Graham averages just 2.08 yards per route run over that same time period and Gronkowski is a significantly better blocker.

In games where Gronk plays over the past 4 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions, including playoffs. When he doesn’t over the past 4 years, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant dropoff in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. As a result of the final 2 games of the season (one of which Gronk didn’t even play), I think people are forgetting exactly how good this team was during that 11 week stretch and they have a very good chance of reminding everyone this week.

On top of that, they are incredible at home, winning 16 straight home games that actually matter over the past 2 seasons, going 11-5 ATS in those 16 games. This season, excluding week 17, they move the chains at a 80.00% rate at home, as opposed to 71.37% for their opponents (a differential of 8.63%), while they move the chains at a 75.10% rate on the road, as opposed to 71.90% for their opponents (a differential of 3.20%). Part of why they struggled to start the season was because 3 of their first 4 games were on the road and that’s also part of why they struggled in New York against the Jets. Now back at home, they could easily be very, very tough to beat.

However, I’m not making a big play on the Patriots this week, despite all that, because of their opponent. I’m not worried about the Patriots playing the Ravens for the same reasons that everyone else seems to be worried about them playing the Ravens, which is that they are only 1-2 against the Ravens in the playoffs in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era (0-3 ATS). I don’t put too much stock into that number. For one, it’s way too small of a sample size to prove anything. Two, teams change on a year-to-year basis anyway. Baltimore having former New England defensive coordinator Dean Pees running their defense is a concern and the Ravens do match up well with the Patriots (more on that later), but acting like that record proves anything about these two teams is short-sighted.

Three, the Patriots have covered against the Ravens all 4 times they’ve faced them in the regular season over that time period and their only loss came by a point in Baltimore. I don’t put any more stock into playoff statistics than I do into regular season statistics because I don’t buy into the notion that the game significantly changes in the post-season and that certain players do better or worse against certain teams in certain situations in the post-season. Once again, I believe that’s short-sighted. The Patriots’ 41-7 win in Baltimore last year should carry as much weight when evaluating this game as the Patriots’ 28-13 home loss to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship, if not more because it’s more recent. If anything, all this talk that Brady and Belichick can’t beat the Ravens in the post-season might just add to their motivation, which should already be very high considering this is the playoffs and considering their rocky finish to the season.

The reason I worry about the Patriots’ opponent here is because I thought going into the playoffs that the Ravens were the best team in the post-season outside of the four teams with first round byes. The Ravens went 10-6 despite a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, so they were a rare 10+ win team that was actually better than their record. They finished 5th in DVOA, and their +107 point differential was 6th among playoff teams. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they moved them at a 75.93% rate, as opposed to 70.31% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranked 3rd in the NFL this season, behind only Denver and Seattle and actually ahead of New England.

Baltimore had a weak schedule, but even when you take schedule into account, the Ravens only fall to 4th in differential at 4.94%, trading spots with New England, who is at 5.40%. The Ravens also came into the playoffs as the 4th hottest team, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams over the final 4 games of the season at 10.56%, only behind Seattle, Carolina, and Dallas. That’s a little skewed because the Ravens faced back-to-back 3rd string quarterbacks against Houston and Cleveland and even schedule adjusted differential doesn’t take injuries into account, but it’s still very impressive.

The Ravens certainly didn’t do anything to disprove my theory that they were the best team to play during wild card weekend last week, as they beat the Steelers 30-17 in Pittsburgh, moving the chains at a 78.57% rate, as opposed to 69.70% for their opponents, a differential of -8.87%. That’s impressive, even if Pittsburgh was playing without Le’Veon Bell. This week, they get left tackle Eugene Monroe back from injury, after he’s missed the past two games with injury. He’ll be a significant upgrade over undrafted rookie James Hurst, who has struggled mightily when called on to play this year, though they’ll still miss right tackle Ricky Wagner, who has also missed the past two games and who was actually the better of the two tackles this season. 5th round rookie John Urschel, his replacement, has been solid so far though.

Defensively, they got Haloti Ngata back from suspension last week and that proved to be a huge addition. Ngata didn’t play at all during their final 4 games and the Ravens still allowed opponents to move the chains at a 58.41% rate over those 4 games, 11.06% less than average given their schedule (still very impressive even considering they faced 3rd stringers Connor Shaw and Case Keenum in two of those games). With Ngata back, their defense is very solid, despite issues at cornerback. Teams have proven in the past that secondary play is, well, secondary to good front 7 play and the Ravens are once again doing so of late.

If you can stop the run, you can make the other team one dimensional and force them to pass and if you can do that, it will allow you to unleash your pass rushers, who will mask your secondary. That’s how the Ravens have been getting it done and, as I mentioned earlier, they’re a tough matchup for the Patriots because of that. The Patriots’ weakness is still their offensive line, especially the interior of their offense line, a serious concern considering Tom Brady has always struggled under pressure. Over the past 6 seasons, he only has completed 541 of 1134 passes (47.7%) for 7056 yards (6.22 YPA), 47 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions under pressure, as opposed to 2354 for 3359 (70.1%) for 27302 yards (8.13 YPA), 216 touchdowns, and 45 interceptions while not under pressure.

The Ravens haven’t been as good on the road this season. In the regular season at home, they moved the chains at a 77.91% rate, as opposed to 67.26% for their opponents (a differential of 10.65%), while they’ve moved the chains at a 73.91% rate on the road, as opposed to 72.97% for their opponents (a differential of 0.94%). This home/road disparity is nothing new as since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 47-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 35-33, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.22 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. In fact, their win in Pittsburgh last week was their first road victory of the season over a team who finished the season with a winning record. Ultimately, I’m going with the Patriots, but because they’re playing a team like the Ravens, I can’t put any money on them as touchdown favorites.

New England Patriots 27 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

I had the Panthers as the 2nd hottest team coming into the playoffs. They won their final 4 straight games just to make the playoffs and, in their final 5 games, they moved the chains at a 77.38% rate, as opposed to 61.98% for their opponents, a differential of 15.40%, since their week 12 bye. Over that time period, their only loss was on the road in Minnesota, who returned two blocked punts for touchdowns, the definition of a fluke and the first time that had happened in a game in 40 years. Their schedule over that time period wasn’t very good, as they didn’t play a single playoff team, but even when strength of schedule is taken into account, they still ranked 2nd over the final 4 games of the season in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential at 15.06%.

It wasn’t just those final 4 or 5 games either as they ranked 7th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the final 8 games of the season among playoff teams. For the 4th straight year under Ron Rivera’s coaching, they’ve gotten significantly better down the stretch. In 2011, they started 2-8 and finished 6-10, winning 4 of their last 6 games. In 2012, they started 2-8 and finished 7-9, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Last year, they started 1-3 and finished 12-4, winning 11 of their last 12 games. And this year, they finished 7-8-1 after starting the season 3-8-1, winning their final 4 games.

The Panthers didn’t continue that into the playoffs last season, losing at home to the 49ers in the divisional round after sitting out the first round with a bye, but they did this season, beating the Cardinals 27-16. The Ryan Lindley led Cardinals are obviously not nearly as good as the 2013 49ers were, but the Panthers dominated that game more than the final score suggested, as they had 386 yards and 25 first downs to Arizona’s 78 yards and 8 first downs. They moved the chains at a 68.29% rate, as opposed to 45.45% for the Cardinals, which is impressive no matter who the opponent is. The Cardinals definitely didn’t have a playoff caliber offense, but they had a playoff caliber defense and then some, finishing the regular season 3rd, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.83% rate.

The problem for the Panthers is that they are running into the only team in the playoffs that came into them hotter, the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks ranked 1st in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the final 4 games of the season, at 16.11%. They also ranked 1st in that aspect over the final 8 games of the season at 11.68% and just barely 2nd over the entire season at 6.78% (only Denver at 6.92% was better). Unlike the Panthers, an overall average team that got better as the season went on, the Seahawks are a dominant football team that played it’s best football over the final few weeks of the season, as they got healthier.

The Seahawks also have arguably the best homefield advantage in football. It wasn’t as pronounced this season as the Seahawks were good everywhere they went, moving the chains at a 74.06% rate at home, as opposed to 66.96% for their opponents (a differential of 7.10%), while moving the chains at a 76.10% rate on the road, as opposed to 70.42% for their opponents (a differential of 5.67%). However, since 2007, the Seahawks are 48-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 46-21-1 ATS (6-2 ATS this season). They outscore opponents on average by 7.93 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 27-42 record away from home (31-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 2.80 points per game, a roughly 10.5 point swing.

Injuries are also a factor in this game. While Carolina is hot right now, they could be cooled off by the injury to Star Lotulelei, who is expected to be out for the rest of the playoffs with a foot injury. Lotulelei isn’t a star player (pun intended), but he was Pro Football Focus 22nd ranked defensive tackle this season and the Panthers really missed him when he missed 2 games earlier this season. Colin Cole, who drew the starts earlier this season and should start again, isn’t very good. On top of that, Cam Newton’s health is up in the air as now he adds an ankle injury (suffered last week) to his list of injuries. He’ll play this week and he’s been able to play some of the best football of his season down the stretch despite all the injuries, but he looked limited by the injury once he suffered it last week and it’s tough to know how close to 100% he’ll be this week.

On the flip side, Seattle is even hotter right now and they add star center Max Unger back into the starting lineup. Unger missed 10 games this season with injury, but he’s one of the best centers in the game when healthy. He was only average in 2013, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked center in 2012 and this season he ranked 4th despite all the missed time with injuries, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He’ll be a huge boost to this team and ironically he’ll match up often with Colin Cole. I mentioned earlier that the Seahawks got better as the season when on because they got healthier, with guys like Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor getting back to full strength. Unger’s return might be even bigger than those guys’ returns.

On top of that, Seattle has a huge advantage as a West Coast team in a night game against an East Coast team. Teams cover at about a 2/3rds rate in that spot historically because, while the Panthers will be shutting down for the night in the 2nd half of this game, the Seahawks will not have that issue. As much as I love the run that Carolina put up to end the season, I think it comes to a screeching halt this week as they face arguably the best team in football getting healthy and playing their best football of the season right now in arguably the toughest spot in football to win, without one of their top defensive players and with their quarterback banged up as an East Coast team in a West Coast night game. I have a good amount of confidence in Seattle to cover the 10.5.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Needs

Quarterback

Josh McCown struggled mightily in 11 starts for the Buccaneers this season, completing 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, winning just once. He’s obviously not a long-term solution, going into his age 36 season and might not even be back at his scheduled 5.25 million dollar salary, which is non-guaranteed. Mike Glennon is younger, but he wasn’t much better, completing 57.6% for his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Lovie Smith doesn’t seem to be a big fan of him, bringing in McCown and naming him the starter ahead of Glennon instantly and stubbornly sticking with McCown even when McCown was struggling and the team wasn’t going anywhere, only playing Glennon when McCown was hurt. With the first overall pick in the draft at their disposal, Heisman winner Marcus Mariota looks like as much of a lock as you can get at this point. If it’s not him, it’ll be former Heisman winner Jameis Winston.

Guard

The Buccaneers were so desperate for guard help before the season started that they traded a 4th round pick and promising young tight end Tim Wright to the Patriots for Logan Mankins, even though he was aging, declining, and had a large salary and even though he barely had any time to learn the offense before the start of the season. Mankins was solid, but he’s going into his age 33 season and they have a huge hole opposite him anyway. Patrick Omameh struggled on the other side of the line.

Defensive End

Michael Johnson struggled mightily in the first season of his big contract, but he was hurt and he could easily bounce back next season. The Buccaneers do need another edge rusher opposite him though. Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers were their 1st and 2nd round picks in 2011, but neither panned out and both are free agents. William Gholston, who started opposite Johnson last season, was underwhelming.

Safety

The Buccaneers used the 7th overall pick on Mark Barron in 2012 and then gave Dashon Goldson a massive contract the following off-season. Those were supposed to be their starting safeties for the future, but neither of them worked out. Barron was traded to Tampa Bay mid-season in 2014, while Goldson could be cut this off-season, with no guaranteed money left on his contract and after two awful seasons. Major Wright, who took over as the starter after Barron was traded, is a free agent. If he’s not re-signed, they’ll need to add two new safeties and I think they need to add at least one either way.

Middle Linebacker

Mason Foster was their starter at middle linebacker for 4 years after they took him in the 3rd round in 2011, but he was underwhelming and this off-season he’s a free agent. Lovie Smith spoke about upgrading that spot last off-season and finding someone who was a better fit for the Tampa 2 scheme. The Buccaneers were only able to bring in Dane Fletcher, who lost the position battle in the off-season and stayed a reserve. It’ll be tough, but Smith will try to find another Brian Urlacher.

Cornerback

Alterraun Verner did a solid job in his first season in Tampa Bay, but they struggled at the opposite cornerback spot. Both Johnthan Banks and Leonard Johnson struggled as the #2 and #3 cornerbacks respectively. They could add some competition this off-season. Banks, a 2013 2nd round pick, has struggled in his first 2 years in the league and should be pushed for his starting job.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were a great wide receiver duo this season, both going over 1000 yards despite poor quarterback play on a 2-14 team. However, they don’t really have much depth behind them at wide receiver. Jackson is going into his age 32 season anyway and he has a large salary and cap number in each of the final two years of his deal in 2015 and 2016. They probably won’t outright cut him this off-season, but there were reports that they were interested in trading him at the deadline mid-season and either way he’s not going to be around too much longer and they don’t have a successor.

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

DE Adrian Clayborn

Adrian Clayborn was a first round pick of the Buccaneers in 2011 and he had a decent rookie year, struggling mightily against the run, but getting good pass rush and overall grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus. The story of his career from there was injuries though, as he’s played just 20 games over the past 3 seasons. He missed all but 3 games in 2012 with a torn ACL, struggled mightily in his first year back in 2013, grading out 47th out of 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, and, just when there was optimism for his future again in 2014, he tore his biceps and missed all but 1 game. There’s still upside here and he’s a decent flier for a pass rush needy team, but he hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy and after 4 years in the league he’s still unproven.

S Major Wright

A 2010 3rd round pick, Major Wright started 42 games in 4 seasons in Chicago. His best season was 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked safety, but he had his worst year at the worst time, grading out dead last at his position in 2013, a contract year. He was limited to one-year deals in free agency and ended up with Smith again in Tampa Bay, starting the year as a backup, but moving into the lineup when Mark Barron was traded to St. Louis mid-season. Wright made 7 starts graded out about average on 520 snaps and should be given an opportunity to at least compete for a starting job wherever he ends up this off-season. Tampa Bay keeping him would make sense. He played 3 years for Lovie Smith in Chicago and he’s played his best football in Smith’s defense in his career.

MLB Mason Foster

Foster was a starter from the word go in Tampa Bay, after they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2011. In 4 years with the team, Foster played 57 of 64 games (though he missed 6 this season), starting all but 3 of them. However, he graded out below average in all 4 seasons, including 43rd out of 60 eligible this season. He’ll draw interest as a starter on the open market because of his experience and he could end up back in Tampa Bay, but whichever team signs him shouldn’t expect much.

Cap Casualty Candidates

S Dashon Goldson

One of ex-GM Mark Dominik’s patented free agency whiffs, the Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 off-seasons ago and he proceeded to be one of the worst safeties in the game over the past 2 seasons. Goldson was Pro Football Focus’ 81st ranked safety out of 86 eligible in 2013 and their 87th ranked safety out of 88 eligible in 2014. With no ties to the current regime and a non-guaranteed 7.5 million dollar salary scheduled for 2015, Goldson will almost definitely be cut this off-season, a move which would clear 4 million in cap space immediately.

QB Josh McCown

This one you can’t blame Mark Dominik for. The Buccaneers new regime signed Josh McCown to a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal last off-season, a reasonable value considering what guys like Chad Henne and Michael Vick got last off-season, but Lovie Smith named him the starter as soon as he arrived in town, even though Mike Glennon had shown flashes as a 3rd round rookie in 2013. McCown, who randomly had 5 good starts in Chicago in 2013, was going into his age 35 season and hadn’t had a season with a QB rating over 70 since 2005, so it was a weird move. McCown predictably regressed in 2014, completing just 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible and went 1-10 in his 11 starts. Smith stubbornly stuck with him even as he was struggling and refused to give Glennon a look, even with nothing to play for. Going into his age 36 season, with the Buccaneers likely taking Marcus Mariota #1 overall, McCown probably won’t be kept at a non-guaranteed 5.25 million dollar salary for 2015, though he could be retained at a cheaper rate as a veteran backup.

G Logan Mankins

It just seems like whenever the Buccaneers make a big splash, whether it be a high draft pick, a big free agent signing, or a prominent trade, it backfires. The Buccaneers sent a mid-round pick and promising young tight end Tim Wright to the New England Patriots for Logan Mankins right before the start of the season, a move many saw as a complete steal. The issue is Mankins is aging, now going into his age 33 season. Mankins was solid in 2014, but he wasn’t as good as he’s been in the past and the rebuilding Buccaneers might not want to give a declining player a 7 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2015. Because they acquired him through a trade, there will be no cap penalty for the Buccaneers releasing him.

WR Vincent Jackson

This one is unlikely, but if the Buccaneers want to go into a complete rebuild, they could try to trade or cut the aging Jackson. Jackson played well in 2014, catching 70 passes for 1002 yards and 2 touchdowns, while grading out slightly above average on Pro Football Focus, but he’s owed 9.78 million non-guaranteed in 2015 and the Buccaneers could save 7.78 million of that on the cap immediately by letting him go. He’ll be in his age 32 season in 2015. They were known to be interested in trading him at the trade deadline, but couldn’t find any takers.

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2014 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Khalil Mack

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Raiders, Uncategorized

Odell Beckham Jr. had a season for the ages on the offensive side of the football this year and looks like an easy choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but two defensive rookies had rookie years that were equally as dominant. Oakland’s Khalil Mack and St. Louis’ Aaron Donald each ranked #1 at their respective positions, 4-3 outside linebacker and defensive tackle, on Pro Football Focus, the first defensive rookies to do so since Denver’s Von Miller did so at 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011. Other rookies had strong rookie campaigns in 2014, San Francisco’s Chris Borland, Baltimore’s CJ Mosley, and Minnesota’s Anthony Barr are names that come to mind, but to me, this award is between Mack and Donald as none of the other 3 even ranked in the top-3 at their respective positons.

Once you get down to Mack and Donald, it becomes a very tough choice. Both led their respective positions over some established All-Pro caliber veterans. Mack finished #1 right ahead of the aforementioned Von Miller, the first time Miller hasn’t been #1 at that position since he broke into the league in 2011, while Donald finished right ahead of Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, both of whom have been top-4 defensive tackles in each of the past 3 seasons.

Mack played a role very similar to the one that Von Miller has played in Denver for 4 years, playing 4-3 outside linebacker in base packages and becoming an edge rusher in sub packages. Mack only managed 4 sacks on the season on a 3-13 Raiders team, which ultimately might be the reason he doesn’t win this award, but his pass rush numbers were better than his sack totals as he also managed 10 hits and 40 hurries. That still means his pass rush productivity was significantly worse than Miller’s, as Miller had 15 sacks, 11 hits, and 47 hurries, giving him a pass rush productivity of 11.8, while Mack was at 9.1.

However, Miller had the luxury of playing with a lot of leads on a Peyton Manning quarterbacked team, giving him more easy pass rush situations, while Mack played on an Oakland team whose offense led by Derek Carr was the worst in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin at 62.27%. Jacksonville was next worst at 64.55%. Oakland’s defense was actually competent this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72.33% rate that was a middle of the pack 16th in the NFL, largely due to the play of Mack. That was despite the fact that of 13 Oakland defenders to play more than 400 snaps this season, only two of them graded out positively, Mack and veteran Justin Tuck, who was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked 4-3 defensive end. If that’s your best defensive teammate and your defense is still capable, you played pretty well, regardless of what the sack numbers say. Mack also was significantly better than Miller as a run stopper.

Donald had a different rookie year. He had more than double Mack’s sacks with 9, very impressive for an interior player. When you add in his 6 hits and 29 hurries, you get a pass rush productivity of 8.3, worse than Mack’s, but 8th best among defensive tackles. And Donald wasn’t playing with a bunch of leads either. The Rams finished better than the Raiders did at 6-10, but their offense finished 25th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.90%. The Rams’ defense was why they were able to win 6 games, as they finished 5th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.28% rate.

Donald was a big part of that, not just rushing the passer, but also stopping the run surprisingly well for a player listed at 6-1 288 coming out of college. Along with ranking #1 at his position, he was the only defensive tackle to rank in the top-5 as both a pass rusher and against the run. However, unlike Mack, he had a lot more help around him. While just 2 of 13 Oakland defenders who played more than 400 snaps graded out positively this season, 8 of 14 St. Louis defenders did so, including Donald’s defensive line-mate Robert Quinn, who finished as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 4-3 defensive end. Ultimately, it’s a borderline toss-up between these two. I won’t complain if either of them wins it, but since I have to pick one I’m going with Mack for doing what he did with almost no help around him. This is easily the closest award race though.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. The motivation for this is because I started the season 100-60 against the spread in the first 11 weeks of the season, but just 43-49 in the final 6 weeks. A similar thing happened in 2012 and 2013 as well and I think part of it is because I put too much stock into old data late in the season. Breaking out the data into the last 4 games and the last 8 games allows me to find out which teams are “hot” at the moment, something that might be masked by the season long data.

Two things this data revealed for me this week are relevant to this game. Before I did this, I was ready to make a big play on Indianapolis. The Colts rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 74.96% rate, as opposed to 70.28% for their opponents, a differential of 4.67%. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 16th, 2nd worst among playoff teams, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 71.90% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. On top of that, the Bengals are without AJ Green this week.

However, the data from the past 4 games and the past 8 games revealed that the Bengals have gotten a lot better as the season has gone on. On the season, the Bengals rank last among playoff teams in schedule adjusted differential at 0.48%, but over the past 8 games they rank 8th at 3.12% and over the past 4 games they rank 6th at 6.77%. You might think that AJ Green’s return from an earlier injury, which essentially cost him 4 games this season, is the reason behind that. However, their offense has remained below average in all 3 timeframes, season long, last 8 games, and last 4 games.

The unit that has gotten so much better over the course of the season is their defense, in Paul Guenther’s first season as defensive coordinator. They really missed Mike Zimmer to start the season, as their ex-defensive coordinator is now the head coach in Minnesota, but they’ve missed him less and less as the season has gone on, as Guenther’s defense has come into its own. Besides, in the 4 games they’ve been without Green this season, they haven’t been significantly worse offensively, moving the chains at a 69.83% rate in those games, as opposed to 72.46% in their other 12 games. They will struggle to move the chains without him, but their defense should play well once again.

One of the games that Green missed was the Bengals’ earlier trip to Indianapolis, a 27-0 blowout loss by the Bengals that was even worse than the final score suggested. The Bengals went three and out in their first 8 drives and ended up moving the chains at a mere 40.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Colts, a differential of -35.00%. It was easily the Bengals’ worst performance of the season. The good news for the Bengals is teams are 13-25 ATS in the playoffs in same site, non-divisional revenge games since 2002.

On top of that, teams are 7-2 ATS in the playoffs as underdogs over that same time period against non-divisional opponents that previously beat them by 21 or more in the regular season. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Bengals were also in a terrible spot in the first matchup, exhausted off of a tie with the Panthers the previous week. Teams are 5-11 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-7 ATS on a bye. This week, they’re on normal rest.

Meanwhile, the Colts have gotten noticeably worse as the season has gone on, the other revelation that surfaced as a result of breaking up season long data into the past 4 weeks and the past 8 weeks. While the Colts rank 6th in schedule adjusted differential among playoff teams at 3.87% on the season, they rank 10th over the past 4 weeks at 1.55% and 11th over the past 8 weeks at -0.21%. The unit that has been largely responsible for this decline has been the offense, which has struggled with a season ending injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, a severely limiting injury to Reggie Wayne, and minor injuries to TY Hilton and Dwayne Allen. Hilton and Allen should be good for this game, but now Gosder Cherilus is hurt.

Luck’s numbers have gone down significantly over the 2nd half of the season, completing 57.6% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions over the past 8 games as opposed to 64.8% completion, 7.87 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions over the first 8 games of the season. This is not the same Colts team that destroyed the Bengals earlier this year during week 7, nor is it the same Bengals team. The Bengals are in a good revenge spot and the sharps are on them, as the line has moved from 4 or 4.5 early in the week down to 3.5 now, despite the public being on Indianapolis. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it does here. I’m not that confident though with Green expected to be ruled out.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Cincinnati Bengals 19

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Low

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2014 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pick: JJ Watt

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Texans, Uncategorized

In my Most Valuable Player article, I laid out why JJ Watt should not win MVP over Aaron Rodgers, as the Packers would undoubtedly be a worse team if they switched Rodgers for Watt and the Texans would undoubtedly be better if they switched Watt for Rodgers.  However, Watt not winning Defensive Player of the Year would be an equally big travesty as Watt winning MVP. It’s hard for a single defensive player to fit the definition of valuable as well as a quarterback, but Watt has still been the best player in football in each of the past 3 seasons.

He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top rated player in each of the last 3 seasons. Those ratings aren’t necessarily meant to be compared across positions, but Watt has been so much better than everyone else that it’s a fairly safe assessment to make. With Watt over the past 3 seasons, we’ve witnessed a stretch of dominance by a player that hasn’t been seen since Reggie White’s prime at best. This season was arguably the best of the bunch for Watt, and his rating on Pro Football Focus reflected that, though the ratings are not meant to be compared across seasons either, which is why I said arguably.

Justin Houston gets some mention for this award and he actually led the NFL with 23 sacks, while Watt “only” had 21. Houston was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, but he didn’t dominate the position anywhere near as much as Watt dominated the 3-4 defensive end position. Houston’s sack total is very impressive, but Watt’s 21 are even more impressive considering he plays a position where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback. Also, while Houston had just 8 quarterback hits, Watt had 44. No one else had more than 21 in the NFL at any position.

Watt added 54 quarterback hurries, which is actually less than Houston’s 56, and in terms of overall pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries divided by pass rush snaps), Houston was actually the better of the two at 15.7 as compared to 15.0, but, again, Watt plays a much tougher position to get to the quarterback from. No 3-4 defensive end other than Watt was better than 9.7 in pass rush productivity.

At 3-4 outside linebacker, Houston wasn’t even the best at his position as Brandon Graham led the way among eligible players, posting a 17.7 on more limited snaps. Twenty 3-4 outside linebackers were more productive pass rushers than the 2nd best 3-4 defensive end. Watt also had a league leading 10 pass deflections, which pass rush productivity doesn’t even take into account. Houston only had 5 and the 2nd best player in that aspect (Clay Matthews) only had 6.

Also, while Watt’s rating on Pro Football Focus was more than 2.5 times better than the 2nd best 3-4 defensive end (Sheldon Richardson, who had a great season in his own right), Houston didn’t even double the next best 3-4 outside linebacker. Watt’s position is also more important to run defense than Houston. Watt wasn’t nearly as good at his position against the run as he was as a pass rusher, but he still ranked 4th in that aspect this season.

The Texans’ defense finished 10th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 70.62%, despite not having a single player other than Watt finish in the top-10 at his position. Only Kareem Jackson finished in the top-15 at his position on the Texans’ defense other than Watt. Kansas City’s defense was a little better, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.29% rate, 7th in the NFL, but Houston had Tamba Hali opposite him (13th among 3-4 outside linebackers) and Sean Smith at cornerback (5th among cornerbacks. Both players had a fantastic season, but this is Watt’s award.

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite finishing the season ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.62%. Even when you adjust that for their weaker schedule, they still come in 4th among playoff teams at 4.94%, only behind consensus top teams Denver, Seattle, and New England. The Ravens went 10-6 despite a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, finished 5th in DVOA, and their +107 point differential was 6th among playoff teams, so they definitely fit in among some of the best in the NFL.

The Ravens also come into the playoffs as the 4th hottest teams, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams at 10.56%, only behind Seattle, Carolina, and Dallas. However, that’s a little skewed because the Ravens faced back-to-back 3rd string quarterbacks against Houston and Cleveland and even schedule adjusted differential doesn’t take injuries into account. Their defense accounted for 11.09% of that, while their offense fared below average given their competition at -0.53%.

Their defensive performance was still very impressive even when you remember that they faced Case Keenum and Connor Shaw in back-to-back weeks and their defense gets an added boost this week, as Haloti Ngata returns from injury, but that offense is a concern, especially since the Ravens figure to be without both starting tackles Eugene Monroe and Ricky Wagner once again in this one. Both of them missed the Ravens’ uninspiring week 17 offensive performance against the Browns. Wagner is on injured reserve and Monroe didn’t practice all week.

Wagner has been the better of the two this season, as Monroe struggled in the first season of his big contract, but both of their backups are significant downgrades and won’t help an offense that’d already been stagnating over the past month or so. More bad news for the Ravens, they’ve been significantly better at home than on the road this season. At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.91% rate, as opposed to 67.26% for their opponents (a differential of 10.65%), while they’ve moved the chains at a 73.91% rate on the road, as opposed to 72.97% for their opponents (a differential of 0.94%). This home/road disparity is nothing new as since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 47-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-33, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.04 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9-9.5 points. The Ravens are on the road here.

If the Ravens are going to pull the upset here, their defense is going to have to continue playing well and slow down a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 3rd among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains. Fortunately, for the Ravens, they aren’t the only ones with serious injury problems as Le’Veon Bell has been ruled out for the Steelers. Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back this season, grading out above average as a runner, pass catcher, and blocker.

He rushed for 1361 yards and 8 touchdowns on 290 carries, a 4.69 YPC, caught 83 passes for 854 yards and 3 touchdowns, and played the 2nd most snaps among running backs this season, showing true three down ability and amazing durability. In his absence, the Steelers will use a committee of Josh Harris, Dri Archer, and Ben Tate. Harris and Archer are rookies with 26 combined carries, while Tate has averaged 3.12 yards per carry on 119 carries this season, is on his 4th team this calendar year, just arrived this week, and doesn’t know the offense yet.

It’s about as big of a downgrade as you can get and not good news as the Steelers get set to take on a tough Baltimore defense, led by a punishing front 7 that should be able to stuff the Steelers’ running game, make them one-dimensional, and unleash their pass rushers. The Steelers have a strong offensive line, but the Steelers’ running back situation will hurt their blitz pickup ability and their check down ability in the face of pressure. If the Steelers are going to have a successful day offensively, it’s going to be because Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton are able to win one-on-ones against a weak group of Baltimore cornerbacks, which they have a decent chance of doing.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have a good chance of getting their offense back on track, despite missing both of their tackles, because the Steelers have the 2nd worst defense among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve been a little bit better over their past 4 games, playing about league average, and they get Troy Polamalu back this week after he missed week 16 and week 17 (though he hasn’t been that good this season), but it’s still a unit the Ravens can have success against.

The Ravens seem like the right side. They’ve been the better team all season and over the past 4 games, with an edge in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over both of those time periods (the Steelers have a slight edge over the past 8 games). The Steelers also have the worst injury situation as Le’Veon Bell is significantly more valuable than anyone the Ravens will be without this week. Despite that, we’re getting 3.5 points with the Ravens and the public is on the Steelers. I just can’t be too confident considering the Ravens’ road struggles.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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2014 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Odell Beckham Jr.

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Giants, Uncategorized

From 2005-2013, 31 receivers went in the 1st round. They averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season as rookie. The most productive 1st round rookie wide receiver over that stretch was AJ Green, who caught 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011, after going 4th overall in that year’s draft. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks who went on to have fantastic careers and they only had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Green joined just two other players from that time period to have over 1000 yards in his rookie season, Marques Colston (70/1038/8 in 2006) and Keenan Allen (71/1046/8 in 2013). The college to NFL adjustment for wide receivers is about as tough as it gets, or at least it has been until this year.

This year, three wide receivers, all drafted in the first round, went over 1000 yards (Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, and Mike Evans), while Sammy Watkins came a few yards shy. That pushed the number of guys who have had 1000 yard rookie seasons in the last 20 years from 8 to 11 in just one season (Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, and Michael Clayton all did it from 1995-2004). None of those rookies was as good as Odell Beckham though, who was on a level all by himself in one of the greatest wide receiver rookie classes in NFL history.

Beckham didn’t just dominate in his first season in the NFL, he did so despite missing the first 4 games of the season and a lot of the off-season with hamstring problems. He essentially came into the NFL cold week 5, having missed valuable off-season work, and had 4 fewer games to put up numbers than his rookie counterparts and he still led all rookie receivers in receiving yards by 254 yards. Rookie receivers aren’t supposed to put up 1000 yards as a rookie, let alone 1305 YARDS IN 12 GAMES! I know the NFL has become more of a passing league and the adjustment from college to the NFL is smaller now that NFL offenses have adapted more things from the college game, but still. That’s insane.

Beckham’s 108.8 yards per game led the NFL. And it wasn’t like Eli was just forcing him the ball as he was targeted just 129 times (14th most in the NFL), catching 70.5% of them for 91 catches, that as opposed to just 2 drops. Beckham also caught 12 touchdowns and only 2 balls intended for him were intercepted. Eli had a 127.6 QB rating throwing to Beckham this season, 4th best among eligible wide receivers. The top-3 all played on either Green Bay or Dallas, whose teams have quarterbacks that will be MVP finalists and who finished 1-2 in QB rating for the season.

Eli finished 15th at 92.1, meaning Eli’s quarterback rating was 35.5 points better when throwing to Beckham than it was overall, the best margin by an eligible wide receiver this season. Beckham’s 2.74 yards per route run were also 4th in the NFL. For his efforts, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver as a rookie, including 2nd in pure pass catching grade, meaning he basically played at an All-Pro level, despite missing 4 games with injury. This guy wasn’t just the best rookie in the game, but one of the game’s best players at any position this season.

The scary thing is that Beckham should only get better. He doesn’t have an extensive injury history so we should be able to expect him to play 15 or 16 games next season and be present for the entire off-season, which is only going to help his production going forward. Also, unlike guys like Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston who had great rookie years, but never really went from being top-20 wide receivers into that top-5 range (Keenan Allen could be in that same boat), Beckham has the kind of athleticism that allows a guy to get drafted in the first round, giving him a borderline limitless ceiling.

I don’t like to get too excited about guys after one year and I’ve never put a guy going into his 2nd year in the league in my pre-season top-50 (Sheldon Richardson was the highest ranked one last year at #60 and Bobby Wagner was the highest the year before at #64), but Beckham is the exception. His rookie receiver counterparts Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Kelvin Benjamin all had great rookie seasons, as did guys like quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, running back Jeremy Hill, guard Zack Martin, guard Joel Bitonio, and center Corey Linsley at other positions on the offensive side of the ball, but this is OBJ’s award.

2014 NFL Most Valuable Player Award Pick: Aaron Rodgers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Packers, Uncategorized

The consensus 3 candidates for MVP seem to be Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and JJ Watt. I’ll explain why I feel Rodgers has the edge on both of them. I’ll start with the two quarterbacks, Rodgers and Romo. Comparing the two, Romo had generally more efficient numbers. He completed 69.9% of his passes, as opposed to 65.6% for Rodgers, and averaged 8.52 yards per attempt, as opposed to 8.43 yards per attempt for Rodgers. Rodgers’ 38 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio was better than Romo’s at 34 to 9, but Romo still was #1 in the NFL in quarterback rating at 113.2, while Rodgers was slightly behind at 112.2 at #2.

However, Rodgers led the better offense, as they moved the chains at a 79.38% rate, best in the NFL. The Cowboys were very good offensively, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate that was 4th in the NFL, but the Packers were as good as it got offensively this regular season. Rodgers was a bigger part of his offense than Romo, with 520 attempts to 435 for Romo. Add in Rodgers’ superior rushing numbers (269 yards and 2 touchdowns on 43 carries, as opposed to 61 yards on 26 carries for Romo) and Rodgers actually had 103 more dropbacks than Romo.

Romo played on a team that ran 476 times (excluding quarterback runs), while the Packers ran 382 times. He also played with the strongest supporting cast. DeMarco Murray led a running game that not only carried the ball more times, but also averaged more yards per carry (4.6 to 4.4). Rodgers had a pair of great receivers in Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson and the best guard combo in the NFL in TJ Lang and Josh Sitton and Eddie Lacy is no slouch at running back, but Romo had arguably the best running game and offensive line in the game and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are no slouches in the passing game.

The Cowboys ranked 4th in pass blocking grade, 2nd in run blocking grade, and 2nd in rushing grade on Pro Football Focus, while the Packers ranked 1st, 17th, and 7th in those 7 aspects respectively. Rodgers also had 32 dropped passes to Romo’s 10 and ranked #1 in adjusted QB rating (which takes into accounts yards after the catch, drops, throw aways, etc) by a decent margin over Romo (99.04 to 97.70). Rodgers was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback on the season, while Romo ranked all the way down at #7, as they felt his numbers were really boosted by the play around him. At the end of the day, Rodgers led the better offense despite less supporting talent.

It definitely needs to be mentioned that Tony Romo missed one start with a back injury, a 28-13 home loss to the Cardinals in which the offense really struggled, moving the chains at a 67.86% rate. That’s part of why Rodgers had so many more drop backs and if you take out that game, the Cowboys moved the chains at a 77.85% rate on the season. However, that’s still worse than Green Bay and that rate of moving the chains looks a little better when you take into account that they were facing a very tough Arizona defense, which allowed opponents to move the chains at a mere 69.83% rate on the season, 3rd best in the NFL. Besides, the Packers felt Rodgers’ absence on a greater scale last season, as they went 2-6 in 8 games that Rodgers either missed or barely played in. Compare that to an 18-6 record with Rodgers at quarterback over the past 2 seasons. I know you can’t use things that happened in previous years to pick MVP, but it does provide some helpful context.

Now that Rodgers has been narrowed down as the top quarterback in the NFL, the argument is between him and the top non-quarterback in the NFL, who is almost definitely JJ Watt. Watt was Pro Football Focus’ top player this season by a wide margin, as has been the case in each of the last 3 seasons. I’ll get into what makes him so good in my Defensive Player of the Year write-up, but Watt is the only one in recent memory that I think can say he’s been the best player in football for 3 straight years. This is Reggie White in his prime type stuff and maybe even he couldn’t say that.

However, this award isn’t best player, it’s most valuable and it’s just so hard for a non-quarterback to be the most valuable player in today’s NFL. I would be fine with the NFL making a separate award for non-quarterbacks and if that existed Watt would be the heavy favorite. However, imagine if Watt and Rodgers switched places. Rodgers might not have quite the same amount of offensive supporting talent in Houston and the defense would suck without Watt, but Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Arian Foster, and that Houston offensive line are a good bunch so that would still be one of the best offenses in the NFL. Defensively they could easily struggle, but so did the Packers’ defense this year, ranking 27th in rate of moving the chains allowed and they still won 12 games because of how good their offense was. The Texans are a playoff team if they swapped Watt for Rodgers.

If the Packers swapped Rodgers for Watt, their defense would be a lot better, but their offense would be so much worse. Even if they still made the playoffs, there’s no way they’d be 12-win NFC North champions. That’s simply what it boils down to. If you switched Watt and Rodgers, the Texans would become a better football team and the Packers would become a worse football team. Rodgers deserves this award more than anyone else.

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