Football Fan Spot

Comeback Player of the Year is the award that I feel has the vaguest definition because it depends on your definition of comeback. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Harrison Smith, and Von Miller missed significant time last season (7 games, 11 games, 10 games, 8 games, and 7 games respectively) and were among the best at their respective positions this season, but I think one player fits the definition of the word comeback to a tee and that’s New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

While the aforementioned quintet came back from significant injuries, broken collarbones, torn ACLs, broken legs, serious foot injuries, etc, Rob Gronkowski came back from injuries to pretty much every part of his body. Not only did he return from a December 2013 ACL tear, but when he had January 2014 surgery on that knee, it was his 7^th surgery since November 2012, including 5 on a twice broken arm, and one on his back. When Gronk was limited to 7 games in 2013, only 3 of those 9 missed games were because of the torn ACL, as he missed 6 games to start the season with arm and back problems. Throw in a significant high ankle sprain that limited him severely in the Super Bowl after the 2011 season and the fact that his back problems dated back to his days in college, when he missed an entire season with a back injury, and you had a guy that, even only going into his age 25 season, looked like damaged goods and someone who might never be the same again.

Instead, Gronk was Pro Football Focus’ best tight end by a wide margin. He finished 15^th in the NFL in receiving yards and had 116 more yards than Greg Olsen, who was 2^nd among tight ends in receiving yards this season. That was despite the fact that he wasn’t 100% to start the season, catching just 13 passes for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season, and despite the fact that he didn’t play in a meaningless week 17 game for precautionary reasons. That means that Gronk had an 11 game stretch in which he caught 69 passes for 977 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Patriots moved the chains at an 80.87% rate in those 11 games (and went 10-1), as opposed to 65.47% in their other 5 games (2-3).

Gronk made it through the whole season injury free and was nothing less than he’s always been, which is possibly the most valuable offensive skill position player in the NFL (excluding quarterbacks). He’s caught 294 passes for 4231 yards and 49 touchdowns in his last 57 games and he averages 2.41 yards per route run in his 5 year career. For comparison, Jimmy Graham averages just 2.08 yards per route run over that same time period and Gronkowski is a significantly better blocker.

In games where Gronk plays over the past 4 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions, including playoffs. When he doesn’t over the past 4 years, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant dropoff in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. After all he went through injury wise, the future is still as bright as it’s ever been for Gronkowski, which is the definition of a comeback.

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Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3^rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final 4 to qualify for the playoffs, including convincing victories against a pair of solid football teams, Indianapolis and Philadelphia. However, over the past 8 games, they rank just 9^th among playoff teams, as those 8 games include performances such as big home losses to Philadelphia and Arizona. That Arizona game can be somewhat disregarded though as Romo didn’t play. On the season, they rank 8^th among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential.

The Lions, meanwhile, rank near the bottom no matter what timeframe you look at, the last 4 games, the last 8 games, or the whole season. They rank 11^th, 12^th, and 10^th among 12 playoff teams in those 3 metrics respectively. Their +39 point differential is 4^th worst among playoff teams (ahead of only Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati) and they’ve been overly reliant on a 6-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +7 turnover margin. If Dallas plays like they have over the past 4 games, they should be able to win this one easily and cover the spread of 6.5 as well, but their season long inconsistency worries me. If they don’t play like they have in their last 4 games, I think we’re getting line value with the Lions.

Another thing that worries me is that, of their final 4 games, 3 of them were on the road. The Cowboys have proven they can win on the road this season, winning all 8 road games, but they’re just 4-4 at home and their numbers have been significantly worse at home. At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 76.86% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 2.07%, while they’ve moved the chains at a 77.73% rate on the road, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 4.89%. The Cowboys got a huge home victory over the Colts week 16, beating a solid opponent by the final score of 42-7, but their home issues date back longer than this year, as they’re 8-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010, and in their 2^nd to last home game they got destroyed by the Eagles, so I’m not completely sold on the Cowboys at home.

However, the Lions haven’t exactly been good on the road this season either, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as opposed to 73.17% for their opponents, a differential of -3.46%, as opposed to a 73.22% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of 5.29% at home. On top of this, they are 4-13 ATS against winning teams on the road since 2011. The Lions should be the right side. The Cowboys struggle at home, are probably a little overrated (when you look at the whole season for these two teams), and have heavy public action on them. However, the Cowboys are a hot team and the Lions are one of the worst teams in the playoffs, especially on the road, so I’m not confident.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6.5

Confidence: None

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Football Fan Spot

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Year: 2015

2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Pick: Rob Gronkowski

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick