Month: September 2016

Cleveland Browns 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In 2012, the Browns had the 4th overall pick and a massive need at quarterback. Andrew Luck was a lock to go #1, but the Rams, picking 2nd overall, didn’t need Heisman winner Robert Griffin, so there was an opportunity for the Browns to move up to get him. They were unable to and the Redskins leaped the Browns, paying a pair of 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick to move up from 6 to 2 to take Griffin. The Browns were left taking running back Trent Richardson and then taking quarterback Brandon Weeden later in the first round, both of whom busted. Neither spent more than 2 years in Cleveland.

In 2012, the rookie year of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Russell Wilson, it was a legitimate debate which of the three was the best and a debate that Griffin often won. He won that debate with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award voters, who gave him that award in 2012 ahead of Luck and Wilson. It all seemed well deserved, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked quarterback that year, and he seemed to have an incredible future ahead of him. Instead, while Luck and Wilson saw their careers progress, Griffin’s potential came to a screeching halt.

It all started with an ACL tear suffered in a playoff loss to the Seahawks to end the 2012 season. Griffin made it back for week 1 in 2013, but he wasn’t the same, completing 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible. His rushing totals fell from 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries in 2012 (6.79 YPC) to 489 yards and 0 touchdowns on 86 carries in 2013 (5.69 YPC). He missed the final 3 games of the season, in part to rest his knee with the season essentially over, in part because the organization wanted to get a better look at backup Kirk Cousins.

Griffin’s 2014 should have been better, but he didn’t bounce back. Excuses can be made. He suffered another injury, dislocating his ankle in week 2. He was never a good fit for new head coach Jay Gruden’s offense and Gruden never gave him a fair chance and refused to tweak his offense for him. It was evident all season long that Gruden never really thought much of the quarterback he inherited, even leaving him on the bench when healthy upon return from injury for a little bit to test out other quarterbacks. He entered 2015 as the starter, but lost the starting job to Cousins in the pre-season and didn’t play a snap all season.

Still annually in need of quarterback help, the Browns signed Robert Griffin to a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal this off-season and are giving him a fresh start and a chance to prove that 2012 wasn’t a complete fluke. He’s in an offense under new head coach Hue Jackson that fits his skill set better than Gruden’s in Washington did and his body should be in as good of physical shape as possible after a year of rest on game days. With low expectations, I like his chances of surprising and showing he still has something left in the tank, still only going into his age 26 season. I know this isn’t saying much, but he’s arguably the most talented quarterback the Browns have had since rejoining the NFL in 1999.

Incumbent starting quarterback Josh McCown is still around and the Browns have made him expensive to acquire in trade, so it’ll probably stay that way into the season. McCown would be the next guy up if Griffin were to get hurt again. McCown is an 14-year NFL veteran with 57 career starts, but he has career QB rating of just 78.7 and has graded out above average just twice in 9 seasons on Pro Football Focus. Going into his age 37 season, he’s nothing more than a veteran backup, following a 2015 season in which he missed 8 games with injury and finished 29th out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. The Browns also added USC quarterback Cody Kessler in the 3rd round of the draft. He’ll start his career as the 3rd quarterback and is unlikely to make snaps in 2016, but could be a starting option down the line and may see action late in the year if the offense is struggling and the season has been rendered meaningless.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Unfortunately, the Browns; offense could struggle even if Griffin does have a bounce back year. The Browns ranked 28th in rate of moving the chains in 2015 and had plenty of problems beyond the quarterback position. The same is true of the team as a whole as they finished 29th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2015, finishing just 3-13. Making matters worse, the Browns lost several key starters as free agents this off-season from a team that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Griffin is unlikely to ever reach his 2012 form again and that’s what he’d have to do for this team to even sniff the playoffs.

Two of those key starters were offensive linemen, and they were valuable ones, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and center Alex Mack. Schwartz signed with the Chiefs for 33 million over 5 years, very reasonable considering he was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked offensive tackle in 2015. The Browns had plenty of cap space to outbid the Chiefs, but Schwartz reportedly had no interest in returning to the Browns, who have been stuck in the cellar of the NFL for a decade and a half and are showing no signs of turning it around soon.

Mack reportedly had no interest in returning either, opting out of the final 3 years and 24 million of the 5-year, 42 million dollar extension the Browns signed him to two off-seasons ago and taking a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal in Atlanta. As now the highest paid center in the league, Mack was overpaid, but he’ll definitely be missed. The Browns were anticipating losing either Schwartz or Mack this off-season and used the 19th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft on Cameron Erving, who played all over the offensive line at Florida State, but losing both Mack and Schwartz complicates matters.

On top of that, Erving struggled mightily on 425 snaps at guard in 2015, finishing 79th out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. It’s far too early to write him off as a bust and the Browns are hoping that he can have a much improved 2nd year in the league now at his best collegiate position of center. The Browns gave him a show of confidence by not drafting a single center, but there are certainly no guarantees he plays well. Even if he’s significantly better this season, he has a long ways to go to be good.

At right tackle, the competition is much more wide open. The Browns used a 3rd round pick on Auburn’s Shon Coleman, but he’ll have to compete with a pair of veterans for the starting job. One of those veterans is Austin Pasztor, but he struggled last season on 301 snaps at guard. He’s made 27 starts between guard and tackle in 4 seasons in the league, but the 2012 undrafted free agent has never graded out above average at right tackle. The other veteran is Alvin Bailey who has just 8 career starts in 3 years in the league since going in the 4th round in 2013. He’s struggled mightily in each of the last 2 seasons, including 67th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles on 271 snaps in 2015. He’s reportedly the favorite and would be a huge dropoff from Schwartz. Whoever wins the starting job, this should be a position of weakness and we could see 2-3 different starters.

The rest of the offensive line is still in good shape though, as left tackle Joe Thomas, left guard Joel Bitonio, and right guard John Greco all return. Even on an overall bad team in 2015, the offensive line played well and was easily the Browns’ best unit. It’s still easily their best unit, but only by default. Thomas is still playing at an incredibly high level on the blindside, finishing 1st among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. The best offensive tackle of his generation, Thomas hasn’t missed a snap in 144 of 144 possible starts in 9 seasons in the league since the Browns drafted him 3rd overall in 2007.

Thomas has finished in the top-10 among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in all 9 seasons in the league and, even going into his age 32 season, he should do so again in 2016. A future Hall-of-Famer, it’s a shame Thomas has spent most of his career on bad teams surrounded by little talent. To his credit of his patience, he says he wants to stay in Cleveland through this next rebuild, but you start to wonder if he’ll get sick of losing and want out sometime in the next couple years as he gets into his mid 30s.

Bitonio and Greco, meanwhile, are one of the league’s better guard duos. They finished 32nd and 25th respectively among guards in 2016. Bitonio was better as a rookie, finishing 5th among guards before an injury plagued 2nd season in the league in which he only played 10 games. Going into his 3rd year in the league, the 2014 2nd round pick has obvious bounce back potential. Greco’s 2015, on the other hand, was pretty par for the course, as he’s graded out above average in all 8 seasons in his career, including the last 4 as a starter. He’s finished 19th, 30th, 11th, and 25th respectively in those 4 seasons and made 54 starts over that time period. Even going into his age 31 season, he should have a couple more solid seasons in the tank. It’s still a strong offensive line, but they’ll obviously miss Mack and Schwartz.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Though they have arguably the weakest lineup in football, they did have 14 draft picks to try to turn this team around long-term, after trading down from #2 to #8 to allow the Eagles to move up to take quarterback Carson Wentz. From the Eagles, the Browns got a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick this year, along with a 1st round pick in 2017, and a 2nd round pick in 2018 to move down 6 spots and then picked up another 3rd and a 2017 2nd round pick in a trade with Tennessee in which they moved down again from 15 to 8.

Not only did the Browns end up with a ton of picks this year, but they have added extra high picks in the next two drafts. Between those and the compensatory picks they’re expected to get next off-season to cover all of their off-season losses this year, the Browns should have a lot of draft picks in the next two drafts as well. Those will obviously be critical to this rebuild, as they enter another new regime with head coach Hue Jackson (formerly offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals) and general manager Sashi Brown coming in.

The Browns desperately need a quarterback though, so, if Wentz pans out, many will question, in hindsight, the Browns decision to trade down, let the Eagles have Wentz, and instead go into 2016 with the veteran Griffin and rookie 3rd round pick Kessler. In addition to using that 3rd round pick on a quarterback, the Browns used two picks on the offensive line (right tackle Shon Coleman in the 3rd round and then reserve guard Spencer Drango in the 5th round) and a whopping five picks in the receiving corps. With the Browns losing Travis Benjamin and Brian Hartline, who made a combined 19 starts in 2015 and finished 1st and 2nd among wide receivers in receiving yardage, a couple of those rookies could have to play big roles as a rookie. Neither Benjamin nor Hartline were great players, but this is a very young group right now.

Corey Coleman, who the Browns selected 15th overall after trading down with the Titans, figures to start and could be their leading receiver. He could easily see the 124 targets the departed Travis Benjamin saw and could put up similar numbers (68/966/5), even as a rookie. He may not play great as a rookie, but Benjamin didn’t play great either and only had solid numbers because he had such a big role and caught just 54.8% of his targets. Coleman, Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked draft prospect and top ranked wide receiver prospect, has much higher upside long-term than the departed Benjamin and might even be better in 2016.

Josh Gordon is expected to be the starter opposite Coleman when he finally returns from suspension, after missing all of last season and all but 5 games in 2014, as a result of multiple failed drug tests. Gordon might be another slip up away from being permanently kicked out of the league, but he’ll be a welcome re-addition this season, considering he was one of the best receivers in the league in 14 games in 2013 and is still only going into his age 25 season. Gordon wasn’t the same player in limited action in 2014 and could be rusty after all the time off, but he’s definitely better than the Browns’ other options.

For the first 4 games of the season, it’s unclear who the starter opposite Coleman will be. Ex-quarterback Terrelle Pryor has looked good this pre-season, but he’s still very raw and very unproven as a wide receiver; he’s played just 91 career regular season snaps at the position. Andrew Hawkins is a veteran option. Hawkins was actually Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked wide receiver in 2014 and the 2011 undrafted free agent graded out above average in each of his first 4 seasons in the league. However, he fell to 89 out of 121 eligible on 415 snaps in 8 games in an injury plagued 2015 season, easily the worst year of his career. Hawkins is best as a slot receiver at 5-7 180 and has never played more than 667 snaps in a season. Owed 2.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 30 season in 2016, on a roster with a lot of rookie receivers, he’s not even a lock for the final roster.

If Hawkins doesn’t make the final roster, 5th round rookie Rashard Higgins would open the year as at least the 3rd receiver behind Coleman and Pryor. As much as you don’t want to count on a 5th round rookie receiver for a significant role, Higgins was a steal and earned a 2nd round grade from Pro Football Focus, so they could do a lot worse. When Gordon returns, he and Pryor will compete for snaps behind the starters. The Browns also drafted Ricardo Louis in the 4th round and Jordan Payton in the 5th round. Neither figures to have much of a rookie year role, but they should still make the final roster. Teams don’t like to give up on even mid round picks this early and there’s no guarantee either would pass through waivers unclaimed if the Browns tried to add either to the practice squad.

Seth DeValve, a 4th round pick, was the other pass catcher the Browns added through the draft. The big 6-4 245 pound ex-wide receiver out of Princeton will convert to tight end in the NFL. He got an undrafted grade from Pro Football Focus and will be the #2 tight end at best because starter Gary Barnidge led this team in receiving in 2015, catching 79 passes for 1043 yards and 9 touchdowns, and could easily do so again in 2016. He wasn’t quite as good overall as those numbers suggest, as the 6-6 250 pounder struggled mightily as a run blocker and finished “just” 15th overall among tight ends on Pro Football Focus, but he finished 8th in pure pass catching grade and joined Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, and Delanie Walker as the only four tight ends to have a 1000+ yard season in 2015.

He’s also a complete one-year wonder who had just 44 catches in his career going into 2015 and he’s already going into his age 31 season and his 9th year in the league. Still, he was an obvious value on the 3-year, 12.3 million dollar extension the Browns gave him last December, ahead of his pending free agency. He’ll be a liability in the run game and might not match last year’s numbers, but he’s one of their best offensive players. DeValve, meanwhile, will compete with 2015 undrafted free agent EJ Bibbs, who played just 37 nondescript snaps as a rookie, for the #2 job and may be seen as the long-term heir apparent to Barnidge. It’s a receiving corps with a lot of problems, but also a lot of upside. Overall, the Browns’ receivers are probably improved over last season, though that’s not saying a lot.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

With as many picks as they had, it’s really surprising the Browns didn’t add a single running back in the draft. The Browns have a pair of young running backs in Duke Johnson (3rd round in 2015) and Isaiah Crowell (undrafted in 2014) that both had 150+ touches last season, but both are from the previous regime and they averaged just 3.64 YPC and 3.82 YPC respectively in 2015, so most believed they’d add another back at some point. Johnson provides value as a pass catcher out of the backfield in the Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead role, catching 61 passes for 534 yards and 2 touchdowns as a rookie and grading out 4th among running backs in pass catching grade on Pro Football Focus, and he still has upside as a runner, going into his 2nd year in the league.

However, Crowell has averaged just 3.94 YPC on 333 carries and has caught just 28 passes in 32 career games in 2 seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2014. The Browns should have at least added competition for him, but all they added was 2015 undrafted free agent Terrell Watson, who follows Hue Jackson from Cincinnati, where he didn’t see a snap as a rookie. He’s expected to be their 3rd running back, which puts a lot of pressure on the top-2. The Browns have been talking them up all off-season and Hue Jackson seems to think they’re comparable to Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, who he had in Cincinnati, but that seems like wishful thinking. Johnson matches Bernard as a pass catcher, but both backs could easily struggle on the ground again. Quarterback Robert Griffin may have to run often for this team to do well on the ground and that might not be the best idea, considering his injury history.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

As bad as things are on offense, they’re probably worse on defense. The Browns finished 2015 23rd in rate of moving the chains allowed and lost several starters on defense this off-season, in addition to all they lost on offense. Their defensive line lacks anything resembling an above average starter. Instead, they relied on 6 different players to play between 366 and 547 snaps on the Browns’ 3-man defensive line in 2015. Randy Starks was the best of the bunch (on 467 snaps), but he’s no longer with the team. The Browns also lost starting defensive end Desmond Bryant for likely the entire season with a torn pectoral suffered in the off-season. He led the Browns’ defensive line in snaps played with 547 and was their 2nd highest rated defensive lineman, behind Starks.

With Bryant and Starks gone, the Browns don’t return a single defensive lineman who graded out above average last season. They added Carl Nassib out of Penn State in the 3rd round, but the 6-7 275 pounder played 4-3 defensive end at Penn State and will need to bulk up about 20 pounds to see regular playing time at defensive end in the Browns’ 3-4. He could have a significant role as an interior pass rusher in sub packages as a rookie though, especially with Bryant gone. The Browns also used a 3rd round pick on a defensive end in 2015, taking Xavier Cooper, but he struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked interior defender as a rookie, on 363 snaps. He’ll have to play a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league, so the Browns will be hoping he can improve. It’ll be hard for him to be worse, but he’s a long way away from being even a serviceable rotation player.

Another 2nd year player who the Browns will be counting on for a larger role is 2015 1st round pick Danny Shelton. Shelton was just a two-down nose tackle as a rookie, playing 514 snaps, but should see more playing time in sub packages this year and should lead this defensive line in snaps played with Bryant injured. He played well against the run as a rookie, but struggled mightily as a pass rusher. His weight might have been the issue, as he reportedly ballooned up to 360 pounds and now is closer to his college weight of 330, which should help him be quicker off the line. The Browns obviously drafted him with the intention of him being more than a part-time player, but it’s unclear if he’ll ever develop as a pass rusher. With little other options, he’ll get a shot in 2016.

In base packages, Shelton will start at nose tackle with John Hughes and Jamie Meder as the defensive ends. Nassib and Cooper will primarily play in sub packages. Hughes and Meder are basically just two-down players; Meder saw more run snaps than pass snaps last season and Hughes played just a few more pass snaps than run snaps. Hughes was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, but the 2012 3rd round pick has thus far proven to be a one-year wonder, grading out below average in each of the last 2 seasons. He has some bounce back potential, but, even at his best, he’s never been much of a pass rusher. Meder actually outplayed Hughes in 2015, even though the 2014 undrafted free agent spent most of his rookie year on the practice squad. Meder only played 389 snaps and still graded out below average, but just barely. He may be overstretched to a larger role though. It’s one of the worst defensive lines in football.

Grade: C-

Linebackers

Along with Starks and Bryant, the Browns also lost veteran middle linebacker Karlos Dansby this off-season. Dansby was going into his age 35 season, but still played at a high level in 2015, finishing 11th among middle linebackers. The Browns also lost middle linebacker Craig Robertson in free agency this off-season. He wasn’t a starter, but he was a key contributor, grading out above average on 382 snaps in 2015. He essentially split snaps with Chris Kirksey, who will now become the every down player in his 3rd year in the league, with Robertson gone. He’s new to being an every down player, but the 2014 3rd round pick played 684 snaps in 2014 and 590 snaps in 2015, finishing above average last season. He might not be great, but he seems ready for a starting job.

Free agent acquisition Demario Davis will replace Dansby at the other middle linebacker spot and he figures to be a noticeable downgrade. The 2012 3rd round pick showed his upside in 2014, finishing 15th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus that year, but remains a one-year wonder, grading out below average in the other 3 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he finished 77th out of 97 eligible linebackers. That’s why he had to settle for a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal from the Browns. It’s not a bad idea to bet that he has a bit of a bounce back year in 2016 and he’s cheaper than Dansby was, but Dansby, even at his age, was the much more reliable player and the Browns were certainly not strapped for cap space this off-season. They still have 42 million remaining in cap space and that’s evident when you look at this roster.

At outside linebacker, they used a pair of picks on Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah (2nd) and Wisconsin’s Joe Schobert (4th) and consequently cut veteran Paul Kruger before final cuts to save 6.5 million, a weird move considering Kruger was one of their better defensive players (not that that’s saying much) and the Browns weren’t exactly hurting for cap space. They’re currently about 51 million under the cap and their roster seems like it needs about 51 million dollars worth of talent added to it. Their active cap spending is 18 million dollars less than any team in the league and it shows. Ogbah figures to start opposite second year player Nate Orchard, with Schobert likely being the first one off the bench. Orchard played the run well as a 2nd round rookie in 2015, but graded out below average overall on just 480 snaps and will be counted on for a much bigger role in his 2nd year in the league. He’ll need to take a step forward. It’s not a strong group of linebackers.

Grade: C

Secondary

With Kruger gone, cornerback Joe Haden is also arguably the Browns’ best defensive player. They’re certainly paying him to be, giving him a 5-year, 67.5 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2014, two off-seasons ago. The 7th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Haden was a top-20 cornerback on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 4 seasons in the league, but fell to 28th in his first year after the extension and then struggled mightily on 286 snaps in 5 games last season in an injury plagued season. Haden certainly has bounce back potential, finishing in the top-28 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in the first 5 seasons of his career prior to 2015, but he’s also another concussion away from possibly having to retire.

Tramon Williams made 15 starts at cornerback last season and has started 94 out of a possible 96 games over the past 6 seasons, grading out above average in all 6 of them. However, he’s going into his age 33 season and facing competition from off-season acquisition Jamar Taylor. Taylor has just 9 career starts in 3 years in the league though, since being drafted in the 2nd round by the Dolphins in 2013, and has graded out below average in all 3 of those seasons, including 106th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on 712 snaps last season in the first significant action of his career. There’s a reason he was available for a swap of late round picks this off-season, despite still being affordable on a rookie deal. If he starts, it’s a bad sign for Williams’ career.

At the very least, Taylor should open the season as the 3rd cornerback, after the Browns cut slot cornerback K’Waun Williams, even though he excelled in that role over the past 2 seasons, since going undrafted in 2014. He was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked cornerback on 351 snaps as a rookie and then finished 43rd in a larger role (516 snaps) in 2015. He apparently had ankle surgery against the team’s wishes and they cut him, locking Taylor into a top-3 job. He’s an obvious downgrade.

The Browns also lost both of their starting safeties this off-season, two of many starters who are not returning. Tashaun Gipson struggled last season, finishing 87th out of 89 eligible safeties, but Donte Whitner finished 24th and the Browns don’t have an obvious replacement for either of them. At one spot, last year’s 4th round pick Ibraheim Campbell will compete with this year’s 4th round pick Derrick Kindred out of TCU. Kindred is likely too raw to start as a rookie and Campbell flashed on 102 snaps as a rookie, so he figures to get the first shot at it, but there’s no guarantee he can play well in a much bigger role. It wouldn’t be shocking if the rookie saw action in 2016.

At other spot, last year’s 3rd safety Jordan Poyer will compete with veteran free agent addition Rahim Moore. Poyer struggled mightily on 425 snaps last season in the first significant action of the 2013 7th round pick’s career, finishing 75th out of 89 eligible safeties. Moore has much more of a history of success, finishing 11th among safeties in 2012. Moore hasn’t come close to that since and graded out below average on 451 snaps last season, but, other than last season, he’s graded out at least around average in every season of his career, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2011. Still only going into his age 26 season, he’s a bounce back candidate. It’s going to be a tough season overall for the Browns’ defense.

Grade: C-

Conclusion

It’s going to be a tough season overall for the Browns. One of the worst teams in the league last season, the Browns lost a lot of talent this off-season and should remain in the cellar again this season. They still have a strong offensive line, even after losing 2 key starters, and they have an intriguing passing game with Robert Griffin coming into a system that fits him well, with promising deep threats to throw to, including rookie 1st round pick Corey Coleman and the finally reinstated Josh Gordon (after week 5). However, on the other side of the ball, they probably have the worst defense in the league. The Browns set themselves up well for the future by trading down multiple times in the draft, but this team is 2-3 years away at the least.

Prediction: 4-12 4th in AFC North

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Baltimore Ravens 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Quarterback

2015 was the season from hell for the Baltimore Ravens, especially on offense. The Ravens had the 3rd most adjusted games lost to injury in the league and their offense had the most adjusted games lost to injury of any offense in the league. As a result, they finished 29th in rate of moving the chains, plummeting from 7th the season before. Even the always durable Joe Flacco wasn’t spared from the injury bug, tearing his ACL week 11, snapping a 122-game consecutive start streak that was tied for 6th longest in the NFL at the time.

Flacco’s injury was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but the season was basically lost anyway when he went down. They moved the chains at a worse rate in the 6 games he missed, moving them at a 67.20% rate, but they only moved them at a 68.37% rate in the 10 games he was healthy. Flacco completed 64.4% of his passes for an average of 6.76 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt were all below his career average. He didn’t play horribly, finishing just below average on Pro Football Focus, but didn’t have much of a chance to produce given how much talent the Ravens were missing around him.

Even though he’ll be just over 9 months removed from the injury week 1, Flacco’s recovery has reportedly gone very well and there’s no reason to expect him not to be ready to go for the start of the 2016 season. That being said, it’s not unreasonable to think that it could take him a little bit to get back into the flow of things with the repaired knee. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect him to have the kind of year he had in 2014, when he completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

Those numbers all exceeded his career averages and I’m not expecting a career best year or anything from him coming off of an injury and going into his age 31 season. He kind of is the quarterback he is at this point, solid, but unspectacular. He’s only been a bottom-10 quarterback on Pro Football Focus once in his career (2013), but he’s also only graded out above average in 3 of 8 seasons in the league since the Ravens drafted him in the first round and made him an instant starter in 2008.

In fact, I wouldn’t expect the Ravens’ offense as a whole to play as well as they did in 2014. They finished 7th in rate of moving the chains that year, but 29th in 2015 and 30th in 2013. Injuries can be blamed for a lot of last season, but 2014 also just happened to be a particularly good year this offense, coached by talented offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. They could easily stay healthier and have a bounce back year and be a passable offense, but they’re not a top-10 offense on paper. Flacco isn’t a top-10 quarterback on paper either.

In his absence last year, the Ravens started Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett, and Jimmy Clausen. The veteran Schaub came into the season as Flacco’s backup and got the first crack at the starting job after Flacco went down, while Mallett and Clausen struggled in limited action in Houston and Chicago respectively, before being put on waivers and getting a chance in Baltimore when Schaub struggled. Schaub is gone, but Clausen and Mallett remain to compete for the starting job. Neither played well last year and neither has ever really played well, but Mallett has the greater upside and played a little bit better last season, so he should be Flacco’s primary backup. He’s a steep dropoff from Flacco though, so the Ravens are obvious hoping that Flacco can play his 8th 16-game season in 9 years in the league and shake off that ACL tear.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Flacco wasn’t the only starter to go down week 11, as running back Justin Forsett broke his arm in that game and subsequently missed the final 6 games of the season along with Flacco. Owed 3 million in his age 31 season in 2016, Forsett was let go ahead of final cuts this off-season, so the Ravens will go forward with 3 younger backs at the position. The Ravens got a steal with Kenneth Dixon in the 4th round of the draft, as he earned a 2nd round grade from Pro Football Focus, but he’s dealing with a knee injury, so Terrance West figures to open the season as the starter.

West will also probably finish the season as the team leader in carries, though that’s less of a guarantee. West has averaged just 3.88 yards per carry on 233 carries in 2 years in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2014 by the Browns (he also spent time in Tennessee), but he’s had a good off-season and is only going into his age 25 season, so he could be better this season. He figures to be a downgrade from Forsett though, as Forsett averaged 4.25 yards per carry last season on 151 carries, and Dixon could overtake him by the end of the season.

Meanwhile, 2015 4th round pick Buck Allen struggled as a runner as a rookie, but proved himself as a pass catcher in Forsett’s absence, finishing 6th among running backs on Pro Football Focus in pass catching grade, catching 45 passes for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. West struggles as a receiver (15 career catches for 85 yards), so Allen should at least see the majority of the passing downs, even if he isn’t a serious threat for a ton of carries. Trestman’s offenses have always had a lot of opportunities for running backs to catch passes out of the backfield (Matt Forte had 102 in 2014 for Trestman’s Bears), so that’s a significant role. It’s a decent group of running backs.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Nowhere were the Ravens hit worse by injury than in the receiving corps; only the Bears had more adjusted games lost to injury at wide receiver. First round pick Breshad Perriman’s season never got off the ground, as he ended up missing the whole season with a knee injury suffered in the pre-season. Aging ex-Panther Steve Smith carried the receiving corps on his back for the first 7 games of the season, catching 46 passes for 670 yards and 3 touchdowns, while grading out 5th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but then he tore his achilles and missed the rest of the season.

Smith is a potential future Hall of Famer and changed his mind about retiring because he didn’t want to go out the way his 2015 season ended, but he’s going into his age 37 season and coming off of a serious injury, so it’s very uncertain what kind of season he’ll have in 2016 or if he’ll even make it through the season. It’s tough to bet against him, but this time around it might be a good idea to. He’s the oldest receiver in the league and only 2 receivers have had more than 600 yards in an age 37+ season in the last 20 years (Terrell Owens and Jerry Rice).

With Smith originally announcing last off-season that 2015 would be his final season, the Ravens drafted Perriman to be the future #1 receiver at this point and, even with Smith still around, he may have to be. However, his future is obviously clouded by the knee injury that cost him his entire rookie season. Making matters worse, he suffered another knee injury this off-season. Though he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season, it’s still a concern as, at the very least, he’ll miss more off-season work.  A combine star considered very raw coming out of the University of Central Florida who missed his entire rookie season, Perriman needs all the experience he can get, even if it’s just practice experience. Injuries and inexperience are serious concerns for a player the Ravens need to be good in 2016.

Without Perriman and Smith in 2015, Kamar Aiken stepped up as the #1 receiver. The 2011 undrafted free agent led the way with 75 catches for 944 yards and 5 touchdowns, despite playing with some suspect quarterbacks down the stretch, and finished 19th on Pro Football Focus among wide receivers. AIken was kept on a 2.55 million dollar 2nd round tender as a restricted free agent this off-season, but could start the season as the Ravens’ 4th receiver, as they signed Mike Wallace to a 2-year, 11.5 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season.

That’s starter’s money, but, even with the Ravens needing insurance behind Smith and Perriman, it’s an overpay. Wallace was one of the better receivers in the league in 2010 and 2011, but struggled in the contract year of his rookie deal in 2012 after holding out, disappointed in 2 seasons in Miami, after being signed to a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal, got traded to Minnesota for basically nothing but a salary dump last off-season, and then was horrible in his one season in Minnesota.

Wallace caught just 39 passes for 473 yards and 4 touchdowns, finishing 96th out of 121 eligible wide receivers on Pro Football Focus on 751 snaps. He was an easy cap casualty for the Vikings this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 11.5 million dollar salary in 2016. He’s a good fit in Baltimore, as he’ll be paired with a capable deep ball thrower in Joe Flacco, after three seasons of short-to-intermediate passers in Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater. However, he hasn’t been a top-40 receiver on Pro Football Focus since 2011 and is going into his age 30 season, so it’s hard to count on much from him.

Even if Aiken starts the season as the 4th starter, it would not surprise me at all if he finished the season with more snaps and yards than Wallace. If either Smith or Perriman get hurt again, Aiken would probably become the go-to guy before Wallace, though it’s worth noting that Aiken is a complete one-year wonder after playing just 295 below average snaps in the first 4 seasons of his career from 2011-2014. I don’t expect any Ravens receiver to put up big numbers, but it’s definitely a deeper and improved group from 2015.

Tight end Dennis Pitta is another Ravens’ pass catcher that missed the entire 2015 season. In fact, the 2010 4th round pick has played in just 7 games over the past 3 seasons combined thanks to two separate hip dislocations. Many expected him to retire ahead of his age 31 season this off-season, but he’s reportedly been practicing without limitations this season and the Ravens expect him to play a role. In his last healthy season in 2012, Pitta caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns and was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked tight end in pure pass catching grade, but it’s very hard to expect him to match his best season in 2016. A poor blocker, Pitta will primarily play on passing downs.

Pitta figures to be behind a pair of young tight ends, Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams. Gillmore, a 2014 3rd round pick, flashed on 378 snaps as a rookie and then had a mini breakout year in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, finishing 11th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. His slash line doesn’t look great (33/412/4), but he was 3rd on the team in receiving and he did that on just 520 total snaps in just 10 games and he fared well as a blocker. Like so many Ravens, Gillmore’s 2015 season ended on injured reserve, as he missed the final 4 games of the season with a back injury. If he can stay healthy, he could have a breakout 3rd year in the league.

Williams figures to be their primary pass catching tight end though, as the 6-6 260 pound Gillmore is better as a run blocker than a pass catcher. A 2015 2nd round pick, Williams flashed as both a run blocker and a pass catcher on 477 snaps and, at 6-4 257, has the potential to be a good all-around tight end long-term. He could take another step forward in his development in his 2nd year in the league. It’s a solid tight end duo, but they figure to both keep each other’s receiving numbers down because there are only so many targets and Pitta is also going to have a role.

The Ravens also have one of the best receiving fullbacks in the league in Kyle Juszczyk. He’s not much of a blocker, but he caught 41 passes for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2015 and finished as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked receiving fullback. Baltimore doesn’t have a standout pass catcher at either wide receiver or tight end and they have a lot of players that are either aging, coming off of injury, or both, but this is a much deeper receiving corps than they had in 2015 and they should also have overall fewer games lost to injury in the receiving corps than they had in 2015.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As you might expect, the Ravens also had significant injuries on the offensive line, as left tackle Eugene Monroe was limited to 317 snaps in 6 games and center Jeremy Zuttah was limited to 613 snaps in 9 games. Both were playing well prior to going down, but Monroe is no longer with the team. Owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in 2016, Monroe was a cap casualty this off-season, following back-to-back injury plagued seasons and the Ravens’ selection of Notre Dame left tackle Ronnie Stanley 6th overall, and ultimately retired ahead of what would have been his age 29 season.

Stanley will be a week 1 starter at left tackle as a rookie and, though he could have some growing pains, he should be an upgrade over what they had at the position last year if he can stay healthy. With Monroe injured, swing tackle James Hurst was horrendous in 8 starts, forcing talented left guard Kelechi Osemele to move to left tackle for the first time in his career. He wasn’t bad, but he was clearly playing out of position. Osemele also doesn’t return to the Ravens either, signing with the Raiders as a free agent. That made it harder to part with Monroe and I think the Ravens would have been better off keeping Monroe and playing Stanley at left guard to start his career, as now they have a big hole at left guard. Monroe likely would not have retired if he hadn’t been released by the Ravens.

Ryan Jensen played 419 snaps at left guard last season, with Osemele moving outside late in the season, but the 2013 6th round pick graded out below average in the first significant action of his career in 2015. He’ll compete for playing time with rookie 4th round pick Alex Lewis and 2014 5th round pick John Urschel, a natural guard who struggled mightily in the first significant action of his career in 2015, playing out of position at center. On 547 snaps, he finished 31st out of 39 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. The Ravens don’t have a good option at the position, so losing both Monroe and especially Osemele will hurt this offensive line.

The good news is center Jeremy Zuttah is now again healthy and still with the team, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked center on 613 snaps before tearing his pectoral in 2015. He’s an unspectacular player going into his age 30 season, but he’s made 71 starts in the past 5 seasons and graded out above average in all 5 seasons, with his highest ranked season coming in limited action in 2015. He’s an obvious upgrade over Urschel and a huge re-addition for this offensive line.

Right tackle Rick Wagner didn’t miss a game with injury, but played like he was playing hurt, after breaking his foot late in the 2014 season. Wagner had a breakout 2014 season, finishing 16th among offensive tackles tackles on Pro Football Focus, but fell to 49th in 2015. The 2013 5th round pick is a bounce back candidate, but he’s also a one-year wonder who is no guarantee to bounce back. I’d like his bounce-back chances better if he was hurt last year and is now healthy, but that remains unclear. Another big year would likely land him a big contract in free agency next off-season and would give this offensive line a big boost.

Easily the Ravens’ best remaining offensive lineman is right guard Marshal Yanda. Yanda was a top-5 guard on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2011-2013, but seemed to fall off a little bit going into his early 30s in 2014, finishing “just” 15th. Even getting up there in age, the Ravens extended him instead of Osemele last off-season, keeping him on 4-year, 32 million dollar extension, which proved to be a steal. Yanda was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard in 2015 and has a good chance to have another dominant season in 2016, even going into his age 32 season. He elevates this whole offensive line and this whole offense. Outside of Flacco’s, he’s their most important offensive player and he’s fortunately only missed 2 starts in the past 6 seasons.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While the Ravens’ offense should be improved in 2016, the defense is what’s going to have to carry this team. They weren’t bad defensively last season, finishing 16th in rate of moving the chains, but they also don’t have nearly as many players returning from injury on defense as they do on offense, so they can’t count on better injury luck. They finished last season with the 12th fewest adjusted games lost to injury. This is not the same dominant Ravens’ defense we’re used to, but there are definitely still talented starters on this defense, including nose tackle Brandon Williams.

After flashing on 93 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2013, Williams has made 30 starts in 32 games over the past 2 seasons, grading out 10th among defensive tackles in 2014 and 8th among defensive tackles in 2015. The 6-1 335 pounder is a limited pass rusher and primarily a base package nose tackle, so the 727 snaps he played last season are likely his ceiling, but he’s still an important part of this defense and could easily lead this defense line in snaps played for the 3rd straight season.

Going into the final year of his contract, Williams could command a deal similar to the 5-year, 46.25 million dollar deal Damon Harrison got from the Giants this off-season. Only Harrison had a higher grade against the run among nose tackles than Williams did in 2015. The Ravens’ front office said this off-season they believe he’s the best nose tackle in football, so you can expect them to try hard to extend him this off-season. They are arguably right about that. At the very least, he’s one of the best at his position.

A bunch of players will compete for snaps around Williams on the Ravens’ 3-man defensive line. Veteran Chris Canty began last season as the starter, but was limited to 286 snaps in 9 games by injury and is no longer with the team, ahead of his age 34 season. Younger players Timmy Jernigan and Lawrence Guy were actually 1st and 2nd among the Ravens’ 3-4 defensive ends in snaps played last season, with 531 and 485 respectively. Jernigan, a 2014 2nd round pick, has graded out above average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league and could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. Even if he doesn’t, he’s a solid starter.

Guy also graded out above average, playing primarily as a two-down run stuffer. The 2011 7th round pick had made 3 career starts in 4 seasons prior to last season, so he’s a one-year wonder, but he was a shrewd re-signing on a cheap 2-year, 2.3 million dollar deal this off-season. He should remain as a situational run stuffer in base packages. As young as they are, Jernigan and Guy are actually the experienced ones at the position, as 2015 3rd round pick Carl Davis, who played 241 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and rookie 4th round pick Willie Henry figure to be the primary reserves and rotate heavily with the starters. It’s not the same Ravens’ defensive line you’re used to, as it’s very young, but it’s still talented, led by Williams.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Ravens have the opposite issue at outside linebacker, as starters Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs are going into their age 32 and age 34 seasons respectively. Suggs is also coming off of a torn achilles suffered week 1 of last season that cost him the rest of the season, the one major injury the Ravens had on defense. His age is a concern, as is the fact that he’s missed 23 games over the past 4 seasons with two separate torn achilles, but he’s been a top-10 player at his position in every healthy season since 2010, so he’s still a welcome return, even if he plays a smaller role than he’s used to and doesn’t play as well.

Elvis Dumervil fell to 39th among edge defenders in 2015, after finishing 3rd and 6th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013 and 2014 respectively. His age was likely a factor, but the fact that he had to play 813 snaps as an every down player was also part of it. He’s undersized at 5-11 255 and doesn’t play the run well, but still had a good pass rush season in 2015, finishing 18th among edge defenders in pure pass rush grade, and he’s much better when he can play around 600 snaps and play primarily as a pass rusher in sub packages. Even at his age, he should be able to get to the quarterback in 2016. He’s finished in the top-10 among pass rushers at his position in 5 of 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history.

Za’Darius Smith was the 3rd outside linebacker as a rookie with Suggs injured, grading out below average on 416 snaps, but could see more playing time in his 2nd year in the league even with Suggs back. Courtney Upshaw, who led the position with 799 snaps played last season, left as a free agent, freeing up a ton of playing time. He wasn’t a very good player, so he won’t really be missed, but Smith hasn’t shown much yet. The Ravens also used a 2nd round pick on Boise State’s Kamalei Correa, though the 6-3 243 pound collegiate defensive end has been seeing action at both outside linebacker and middle linebacker this off-season. He received a 3rd round grade from Pro Football Focus and compares unfavorably to former 1st round bust Shea McClellin, who has been a man without a position thus far in the NFL. If he sees significant playing time either inside or outside, he’ll probably be a liability as a rookie.

The reason he could see playing time at middle linebacker is because the Ravens let another 30+ year old starting linebacker go this off-season, releasing Daryl Smith following a terrible 2015 season, ahead of his age 34 season. The move made some sense, but the Ravens didn’t have an obvious replacement on the roster, nor did they add one this off-season. Zach Orr is penciled in as the starter, but the 2014 undrafted free agent has never made a start, so there’s definitely an opportunity for Correa to be the starter here at some point this season. It figures to be a position of weakness regardless.

The other middle linebacker spot is a different story, as 3rd year player CJ Mosley is an obvious bounce back candidate. Even in a down year in 2015, he still graded out above average, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker as a rookie in 2014. Still only going into his age 24 season, with a first round pedigree, Mosley still has a very bright future and could easily have another big season again in 2016. He’s quickly becoming the leader of an aging linebacking corps that is not what it used to be.

Grade: B

Secondary

Cornerback Jimmy Smith played all 16 games in 2015, but still struggled through an injury. Smith missed the final 8 games of the 2014 season with a broken foot, but was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback when he went down. That was enough for the Ravens to give the 2011 1st round pick a 4-year, 41 million dollar extension ahead of his contract year in 2015, despite the injury and the fact that he had never finished higher than 35th among cornerbacks in a full season in his career. The injury seemed to still really bother him in 2015, as he graded out well below average as a 16-game starter and needed an additional procedure this off-season. That extension now looks ill advised and he’s a very shaky bet going into 2016.

Lardarius Webb was the other starting cornerback opposite Smith last season, making 14 starts in 15 games played, but the aging cornerback will be moving to safety this season, for his age 31 season. Kendrick Lewis, a 15-game starter at safety in 2015, remains, but he graded out below average in 2015 and is expected to lose his job to Webb, who was actually the Ravens best cornerback last season. It remains to be seen how he’ll adapt to the new position and his age is becoming a concern, but he’s graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league.

Will Hill was the other starting safety in 2015, making 14 starts in 16 games. He finished 17th among safeties on Pro Football Focus, but the Ravens also have a new starter at that position as well, as Hill was suspended indefinitely for yet another failed drug test. In his place, the Ravens signed ex-Charger Eric Weddle to a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal. Weddle was quietly one of the best safeties in the NFL from 2010-2014, finishing in the top-6 among safeties in all 5 seasons, the only safety in the league to do so, but fell off a little bit in 2015, coming in 33rd. That’s a concern, as he heads into his age 31 season, but he should have a couple more solid seasons in him at the very least and there’s definitely bounce back potential here.

With Webb moving to cornerback, the Ravens will start Shareece Wright, who they re-signed to a 3-year, 16 million dollar deal this off-season, opposite Smith. Wright graded out above average in 485 snaps in 2015, but, prior to that, was a healthy scratch in the first 4 weeks of the seasons by the 49ers, who ultimately put him on waivers. Wright was a 27-game starter in 2013 and 2014 combined, but was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013 and their 105th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible in 2014. It’s possible the 2011 3rd round pick has permanently turned a corner, but the Ravens are betting a good amount of money to find out. He’s not a reliable starter.

Free agent acquisition Jerraud Powers is expected to be the nickel cornerback, with Wright moving into a starting role. Powers was a nice, cheap signing on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal, as he has 82 starts in 6 seasons in the league and has graded out above average in 3 of those seasons, though he struggled last season. His only real competition for the job is veteran cornerback Kyle Arrington, who fell to 4th on the depth chart last season and needed to take a paycut to stay with the team. Arrington graded out above average in every season from 2011-2014, before grading out below average in 2015, and has some bounce back potential, even going into his age 30. He’ll provide valuable depth with Smith still rehabbing from his latest foot surgery. Like the rest of this defense, it’s a solid, but unspectacular unit.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Ravens figure to be a lot healthier in 2016, especially on offense, where they were destroyed by injuries last season. That’ll go a long way towards this team getting back into the post-season, but, even healthy, their offense is unspectacular on paper, as is their aging defense, which is not nearly what it used to be. There’s still good talent on both sides of the ball and they have a chance to sneak back into the playoffs in a weak and wide open AFC, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in AFC North

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Cincinnati Bengals 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Andy Dalton was something of an annual pariah in his first 4 years in the league. Despite leading a team that was 4-12 when they drafted him to 4 straight playoff appearances, Dalton lost all 4 of those games, causing many to label him a choker and a player who is incapable of winning in the playoffs. Dalton has played poorly in those 4 games completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.53 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions, but the Bengals, but I think it’s unfair to judge his entire career in just 4 games, especially since they were tough games and three of them were on the road.

Largely an average quarterback through his first 4 seasons, Dalton was on his way to the best season of his career in 2015, completing 66.1% of his passes for 8.42 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions through 12 games, before missing the final 4 regular season games of the season and the Bengals’ playoff game with a broken thumb. He still finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked quarterback, easily his career best, but the Bengals lost a close one in the playoffs with backup quarterback AJ McCarron, their 5th straight season which has ended in the first round of the playoffs.

With Dalton playing as well as he was last season, they likely would have won that game with him. Even though he’s never won in the playoffs, he easily could have at least once. He’s just one of two quarterbacks all-time to be 0-4 all-time in the playoffs, but YA Tittle is the other one and he ended up in the Hall of Fame. Peyton Manning started 0-3. Evaluating a quarterback just off of post-season record is lazy. McCarron played surprisingly decent in relief of Dalton last season, completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.18 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but having Dalton back healthy will be big for the Bengals; before last season, he never had missed a game in his career. He might not be quite as good as he was in his best season to date in 2015, but he should still be a solid starter at the very least. They moved the chains at a 76.19% rate in the games Dalton started and finished and just 70.25% in their other games.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The problem is the Bengals aren’t nearly as good around the quarterback this season, thanks to several off-season losses on both sides of the ball. They had arguably their most talented team in years in 2015, but weren’t able to keep all of that talent in free agency. Wide receiver might have been the area they were hit hardest, as they lost #2 receiver Marvin Jones and #3 receiver Mohamed Sanu to free agency. Sanu was a mediocre player at best, but Jones will be missed, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 38th ranked wide receiver in 2015.

The Bengals also didn’t do a ton to replace them either, signing cheap veteran free agent wide receiver Brandon LaFell in free agency and drafting Pittsburgh’s Tyler Boyd in the 2nd round. They’ll compete for the starting job, replacing Jones. The most likely scenario to open the year is Brandon LaFell as the #2 receiver and Boyd working as the 3rd receiver, playing primarily on the slot, but LaFell isn’t very good so those roles could easily switch at some point during the season. LaFell has made 56 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 4 of those 6 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he ranked 118th out of 121 eligible wide receivers. Going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to improve going forward.

Making matters worse, the Bengals could be without starting tight end Tyler Eifert for up to the first month of the season. Eifert broke his foot at the end of May and was given a 3-4 month timeline, which puts his status for the week 1 opener very much in doubt. Complicating the matter is the fact that he’s been very injury prone through 3 years in his career, missing 19 games since the Bengals drafted him in the first round in 2013. In his absence, 2015 3rd round pick Tyler Kroft would be the starter, after struggling on 347 snaps as a rookie last season. Ryan Hewitt, a capable fullback versatile enough to play tight end, could also see snaps at the position. Both are steep dropoffs from Eifert.

After a nondescript first 2 seasons of his career, in which he played just 16 games combined, Eifert showed that first round talent in 2015, catching 52 passes for 615 yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games and finishing 3rd overall among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. He’s both a good pass catcher and a strong run blocker at 6-6 250. Injuries are the only thing stopping him from another strong year, but they very well could end up derailing his season. That would be a big hit for a Cincinnati team that already lost a lot this off-season and that barely had any injuries in 2015, outside of Dalton and Eifert. They finished with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in 2015 and, if history is any indication, they should be closer to the middle of the pack in 2016.

Outside of Dalton, AJ Green is the one guy who they can’t afford to lose to injury. He’s missed just 4 games in 5 seasons in the league, but you never know and he’s an even bigger part of the offense with Jones and Sanu gone. Green was actually only 16th in the NFL in targets with 132 last year, turning them into 86 catches for 1297 yards and 10 touchdowns and finished 4th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He could see upwards of 150 in 2016, though his numbers might not get significantly better if he sees more double and triple teams. Still, he’s been a top-17 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons and has averaged 88 catches for 1274 yards and 10 touchdowns per season over that time period. He’s an obvious asset in a much weakened receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Not only did Green play the whole season last year, but they also had 4 starters on the offensive line play all 16 games at that same spot. The only one who didn’t was right tackle Andre Smith, who they didn’t miss when he was hurt because he was one of the worst right tackles in football. A free agent this off-season, Smith will be replaced by 2015 1st round pick Cedric Ogbuehi, who basically had a medical redshirt year in his first year in Cincinnati, after tearing his ACL during his season year at Texas A&M. He played just 73 snaps, but he’s now reportedly healthy and ready to start. He could struggle with growing pains early on, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Smith.

In addition to right tackle, center was a position of weakness upfront for the Bengals in 2015. Russell Bodine has made 32 starts at center in 2 seasons in the league, since the Bengals drafted him in the 4th round in 2014, but he’s largely played like a 4th round pick, grading out 33rd among 41 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus as a rookie and then 30th among 39 eligible in an equally disappointing 2nd year in the league in 2015. He could face competition for his job from Jake Fisher, a 2nd round pick from the same draft as Ogbuehi. A collegiate offensive tackle, he didn’t fill an obvious need, but many regarded him as a 1st round caliber talent and the Bengals found him too good to pass on.

He doesn’t have any experience at center, but he’s a talented player who doesn’t have an obvious role on the offensive line, so he’s been working out at all 5 spots this off-season and, barring injuries, center is his best shot at playing time. The athletic 6-6 306 pounder also played primarily tight end and fullback as a rookie, though he played just 135 snaps total. He’s likely to start the season as a versatile 6th offensive lineman and will likely continue to line up at tight end and fullback from time to time, but, if Bodine continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Fisher gets a shot at center. He’d also likely be the first one off the bench if injuries were to strike on the offensive line this season.

The rest of the offensive line was very strong last season, with left tackle Andrew Whitworth, left guard Clint Boling, and right guard Kevin Zeitler all having strong 16-game seasons in 2015. Whitworth was the best of the bunch, finishing the season 4th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, the 7th straight season in which he’s been ranked among the top-15 at the position; he’s made all but 2 starts over that time period. He could easily have another strong season in 2016, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so his age is becoming a concern. He’s also going into the final year of his contract so this could easily be his final season in Cincinnati or even in the league. If so, he’ll have spent 11 years in the league, all with the Bengals. His age, combined with Smith’s pending free agency, was the reason the Bengals doubled up on offensive tackles in the first two rounds in 2015 with Ogbuehi and Fisher. Expect Ogbuehi to play left tackle long-term, likely as soon as next season, with Fisher starting on the right side.

Boling and Zeitler, meanwhile, have been one of the best guard duos in the NFL over the past 4 seasons. A 2011 4th round pick, Boling took over as a starter at left guard in his 2nd year in the league in 2012 and has ranked 22nd, 18th, 19th, and 21st in the 4 seasons since then. Zeitler, meanwhile, was a 1st round pick in 2012 and a day 1 starter. He’s finished 12th, 27th, 9th, and 11th among guards in 4 years in the league. Going into his age 26 season and the final year of his rookie deal, the Bengals will likely try to sign him to an extension and may use the franchise tag to keep him off the open market if it comes to that. For now, he’s still part of an overall strong offensive line, though it’s not one without issues.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard also played all 16 games. Bernard, a 2013 2nd round pick, was locked up on a 3-year, 15.5 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. That’s a pretty reasonable price, considering Bernard has graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, including 24th in 2015. He’s turned 492 carries into 2105 yards and 12 touchdowns (4.28 YPC) and also added 148 catches for 1335 yards and 5 touchdowns as the Bengals’ primary passing down running back.

Jeremy Hill entered the following season, after the Bengals drafted him in the 2nd round in 2014. Both he and Bernard have had 200+ touches in each of the past 2 seasons, so the Bengals have big roles for both running backs and their skill sets complement each other very well. Hill is a big, bruising between the tackles runner at 6-1 235 who has just 42 catches in 32 career games, while the 5-9 205 pound Bernard is great in space, outside the tackles, and is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield.

Hill had a strong rookie year, rushing for 1124 yards and 9 touchdowns on 222 carries (5.06 YPC). However, on almost exactly the same amount of carries the following season, he had over 300 yards fewer, rushing for 794 yards and 11 touchdowns, an average of 3.56 YPC on 223 carries. As a result, he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus. He’s still a promising young running back, only going into his 3rd year in the league, and a bounce back season in certainly possible, but a rough 2nd year in the league does put a damper on his future outlook. Still, it’s a solid running back duo.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

Not only did the Bengals have good health on offense, finishing with the fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league, they also had good health on defense, finishing with the 6th fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league. That kind of luck is unlikely to continue. One key player who was healthy all season in 2015 is defensive tackle Geno Atkins. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league, finishing 3rd among defensive tackles in 2015. Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 2012, Atkins tore his ACL midway through the 2013 season and was not quite the same when he returned in 2014, falling to 20th at his position. His career seems to be back on track now though and, still only going into his age 28 season, should be dominant again in 2016. He’d obviously be a big loss if he were to get hurt again.

Defensive end Carlos Dunlap would also be a big loss if he went down, but he hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons. A 2010 2nd round pick, Dunlap is one of the most underrated defensive players in the NFL. He’s graded out above average in each of the 6 seasons he’s been in the league, including 5 straight top-15 seasons. He’s coming off of arguably the best season of his career in 2015, finishing 10th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus on 882 snaps. Only going into his age 27 season, Dunlap is one of the best bargains in the NFL, locked up for just 17.6 million over the next 3 seasons.

On the other side is another veteran, 7-year veteran Michael Johnson. A 2009 3rd round pick by the Bengals, Johnson graded out below average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career, but parlayed a strong 2012 season (14th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus) into a franchise tag in 2013 and then parlayed a strong season in 2013 (4th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus) into a 5-year, 43 million dollar contract from the Buccaneers prior to the 2014 season.

However, Johnson was horrible in one season in Tampa, got cut, signed a medium sized contract back with the Bengals last off-season, and then graded out below average for the 2nd straight season. In the process, he’s made 21.975 million in 2 years. Johnson is still only going into his age 29 season and has some bounce back potential, but it’s very concerning that he’s never played well outside of contract years and that he has overall graded out below average in 5 of 7 seasons in the league. He’ll be owed 4 million non-guaranteed in 2017, so this could easily be his final year in Cincinnati if he doesn’t turn it around.

At the very least, Johnson shouldn’t see the 848 regular season snaps he saw in 2015. In order for that to happen, the Bengals need at least one of Will Clarke and Margus Hunt to play a significant role. Clarke, 2014 3rd round pick, has played just 201 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, grading out below average in both seasons, while Hunt, a 2013 2nd round pick, has played just 408 snaps in 3 seasons in the league, grading out below average in all 3 seasons. Hunt was an old rookie and is already going into his age 29 season, so he can probably be written off, but Clarke hasn’t shown much more promise. He’s entering a make or break 3rd year in the league with a starting job likely opening in 2017 if Johnson’s let go.

The Bengals drafted Andrew Billings in the 4th round to be part of their defensive tackle rotation, but he’ll miss the entire season with a knee injury, so a pair of veterans, Domata Peko and Pat Sims, will compete for snaps at the position. Peko is the incumbent and has been for a while, making 139 starts in the last 9 seasons, but his effectiveness is long gone, going into his age 32 season. He’s been one of the worst starting defensive tackles in football over the past 3 seasons. Sims had some good years in the past as well, but has graded out below average in each of the past 2 seasons and was limited to just 180 snaps in 2015. It’s a solid defensive line led by Atkins and Dunlap, but they still have obvious issues and depth problems.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Another player who bounced back from a serious injury on this Cincinnati defense is Vontaze Burfict. Unlike Atkins, who played in all 16 games, Burfict missed the first 6 games of the season, but was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 linebacker in the 11 games (playoffs included) after he returned. That’s huge because Burfict was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013, but was limited to nondescript 223 snaps in 5 games by that knee injury in 2014. It was good to see him bounce back healthy last season.

Still only going into his age 26 season, Burfict should play well again, but the issue is he’s suspended for the first 3 games of the season for a dirty hit in the Bengals’ playoff game. The dirty hit also drew a personal foul penalty that arguably cost them the game. Burfict is a good player, but he’s had a dirty reputation since his collegiate days. The Bengals will probably be noticeably worse in the first few games of the season without Burfict and likely also without Eifert on offense.

In Burfict’s absence, the trio of Karlos Dansby, Rey Maualuga, and Vincent Rey will start at linebacker in the Bengals’ 4-3. Rey has led the Bengals in snaps played at linebacker in each of the past 2 seasons, but has been horrible in both seasons and has graded out below average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2010. He’s a liability. Dansby was an every down player in Cleveland last season and played significantly better than Rey, finishing 25th among linebackers in 16 starts. Dansby has graded out above average in 8 of 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, including 6 straight seasons in the top-13 among middle linebackers, but he’s going into his age 35 season and father time is undefeated. Another solid season would not be surprising, but neither would his abilities falling off of a cliff.

Maualuga is much better suited as a two-down base package linebacker at 6-2 255 and played just 622 snaps in 2015 as a result. He’s been wildly inconsistent in 7 years in the league, but has always been a capable run stopper, despite grading out below average in 4 of 7 seasons in the league. Youngsters Paul Dawson and Nick Vigil are also theoretically in the mix for snaps with Burfict suspended, but Dawson played just 35 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015 and Vigil is a 3rd round rookie this year.

Who plays where when Burfict returns is unclear, but Burfict will have an every down role and Dansby is the favorite for an every down role inside, with Maualuga playing only playing about half the snaps and coming off the field for a 5th defensive back in sub packages. Dansby has played primarily at middle linebacker in his career, so Maualuga could move back to outside linebacker, the position he played in the first 2 seasons of his career in 2009 and 2010. That leaves Rey as a reserve. It’s not a bad linebacking corps, but it has issues and Burfict’s suspension is significant, especially for a defense that hardly had any players miss time last season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In addition to off-season losses in the receiving corps, the Bengals also had off-season losses in the secondary, as veteran cornerback Leon Hall and veteran safety Reggie Nelson are both gone. Hall was Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked cornerback, while Nelson came in 9th among safeties. The Bengals used their first round pick on cornerback William Jackson, as a long-term replacement for Hall, but he tore his pectoral this off-season and will probably miss his entire rookie season. It’s not a huge loss for the Bengals in 2016 because Jackson likely would have started his rookie year as the 4th cornerback in a still deep group of cornerbacks, but it hurts his development.

Jackson is the 3rd cornerback the Bengals have drafted in the first round in the past 5 drafts and the Bengals also re-signed veteran cornerback Adam Jones to a 3-year, 22 million dollar deal. Jones was the best of the bunch in 2015, finishing 15th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, and could easily have another strong season in 2016, even going into his age 33 season. After being limited to 22 games from 2007-2011 by off-the-field problems, Jones has cleaned up his act and played in 62 of 64 possible games in the past 4 seasons, grading out above average in all 4 of them.

Dre Kirkpatrick, a 2012 1st round pick, was the other starter opposite Jones last season, but struggled mightily, finished 103rd out of 111 eligible cornerbacks. Despite being a high draft pick, Kirkpatrick was limited to 600 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league and has never graded out above average, so he’s largely been a bust to this point. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, this could easily be Kirkpatrick’s final year in Cincinnati, given that they just drafted another cornerback in the first round.

The Bengals also used a first round pick on a cornerback in 2014, taking Darqueze Dennard. Dennard has been limited to 252 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, but flashed in limited action in 2015 and looks poised for a larger role in his 3rd season in the league with Hall gone and Jackson injured. He could push the struggling Kirkpatrick for his starting job and figures to play opposite Kirkpatrick in sub packages regardless, with Jones shifting over to the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

Meanwhile at safety, the Bengals will be replacing Reggie Nelson internally with Shawn Williams. Given how well Nelson played last season, Williams is an obvious downgrade, but he did grade out above average on 474 snaps in 2015, after the 2013 3rd round pick barely played in his first 2 years in the league. He could easily take another step forward in his 4th year in the league and become a solid starter. The Bengals are banking on it, giving him a 4-year, 20.185 million dollar extension ahead of his rookie year, despite the fact that he has just 4 career starts, but he could just as easily prove to be overstretched in a larger role.

Fortunately, the Bengals did keep fellow free agent safety George Iloka, who returned to Cincinnati on a very reasonable 5-year, 30 million dollar deal. A 2012 5th round pick, Iloka didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but has made 44 out of a possible 48 starts in the past 3 seasons and has been a top-20 safety on Pro Football Focus in all three seasons; he came in 15th in 2015. It’s still a capable secondary, but, overall, it’s a defense that won’t be as good again in 2016 if they don’t stay as healthy as they did in 2015. It doesn’t look like a dominant group on paper.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Bengals had a chance to make a deep playoff run last season if Andy Dalton had been healthy. Dalton figures to be healthy this season, but the Bengals might have blown their best chance. They lost a lot of talent this off-season on both sides of the ball and figure to have significantly more injuries around the quarterback this season, after barely having any last season. They’ve already lost their 1st and 4th round pick for the season with injury, while Tyler Eifert and Vontaze Burfict are both expected to miss the start of the season with injury and suspension respectively. They also lost offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to the Browns, where he’s now the head coach. He’s a talented offensive mind who helped Dalton have the best season of his career. He’ll be missed for sure. It’ll be a battle for them to make the playoffs.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC North

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

There were some pretty impressive quarterback performances in 2015, with guys like Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, and Russell Wilson all posting insane numbers, and Ben Roethlisberger was just as good as any of them, finishing 3rd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Roethlisberger threw 16 interceptions, but other than that put up huge statistical numbers, completing 68.0% of his passes (4th in the NFL) and averaging 8.40 YPA (3rd in the NFL). He joined Russell Wilson as the only quarterbacks in the NFL to finish in the top-5 in both completion percentage and YPA and finished 2nd in QBR, with a career best 76.9.

Perhaps Roethlisberger’s value was most felt when he was off the field, as they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 12 games he played (which would have been 5th best in the NFL over the whole season), as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. Even when Roethlisberger was on the field, he was often playing hurt, which makes his season even more impressive. Perhaps most impressive was when he returned to the field against Cleveland the week after suffering a 4-6 week foot injury and played one of his best games of the season.

Roethlisberger is going into his age 34 season, but he’s playing as well as he ever has. Not only did he have an incredible year in 2015, but he also finished 3rd among quarterbacks in 2014, both career bests. Though the move was widely criticized as being a bad fit at first, Ben Roethlisberger has worked well with offensive coordinator Todd Haley and put up some very good numbers over the past 2 seasons. He’s completed a combined 67.5% of his passes for an average of 8.25 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, all well above his career averages. If he can stay healthy, he could have an incredible year in 2016.

Health is the obvious key. Roethlisberger has never had any major injuries, playing at least 12 games in every season in the league, but always ends up missing time for one reason or another. 21 games missed in 12 seasons in the league is not bad at all, but he’s also only played all 16 games three times in those 12 seasons. It’s definitely worth noting that two of those three 16-game seasons were 2013 and 2014 and that he takes significant fewer hits than he used to early in his career.

He still plays an aggressive style and is one of the toughest players in the league, but has improved pass protection around him and gets the ball out quicker in Todd Haley’s offense. Roethlisberger only took 20 sacks last season, so, as banged up as he was by the end of last season, you can’t blame it on him taking too many sacks. The Steelers will obviously pray he stays healthy, as Landry Jones remains as the primary backup quarterback and he struggled mightily in the first action of his career in 2015.

Grade: A

Offensive Tackle

Though the Steelers have a solid overall offensive line, they did enter the off-season with a hole at left tackle. Kelvin Beachum was great there in 2014 and for the first half of 2015, but then tore his ACL and was replaced by Alejandro Villanueva, a 2010 undrafted free agent who was underwhelming in his first starting experience. Beachum signed with the Jaguars this off-season and the Steelers only signed veteran Ryan Harris and drafted LSU offensive tackle Jerald Hawkins in the 4th round. Hawkins is likely a year away at best, while Harris wasn’t any better than Villanueva was in 2015. He has more experience, with 70 career starts, but he’s going to his age 31 season, so, with experience, comes age and it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. Villanueva seems like the favorite to keep the job.

Beachum wasn’t the only Steeler starting offensive lineman to suffer a major injury, as center Maurkice Pouncey ended up missing the whole season with a broken leg that required 7 total surgeries. He’s supposedly back to 100% now, but he’s been on the field for just 17 of 48 possible games over the past 3 seasons thanks to that broken leg and a torn ACL. Pouncey is only going into his age 27 season and was Pro Football Focus 6th ranked center in 2014, but repeated lower body injuries take a toll on a player. He may not be that good again this season, but he’s graded out above average in every healthy season he’s been in the NFL and I’d expect him to do so again in 2016, barring another injury.

While the Steelers did not re-sign left tackle Kelvin Beachum, leaving Villanueva to start there, they did keep left guard Ramon Foster and they got him on a great deal, 9.6 million over 3 years. Foster has made 76 of 80 starts in the past 5 seasons and has graded out above average in 4 of them, including 12th in 2013 and 18th last season. His age is beginning to become a concern, as he’s going into his age 30 season, but there’s no reason he couldn’t have gotten more elsewhere. He may have taken less to stay. Even if he didn’t, it’s a steal for Pittsburgh.

On the other side is a guard that is going to cost the Steelers a lot more to keep, as right guard David DeCastro, a 2012 1st round pick, is one of the best young interior offensive linemen in the league. Still only going in his age 26 season, and the final year of his rookie deal, DeCastro has shaken off a bad rookie year knee injury to make 47 starts in the last 3 seasons and has finished in the top-19 among guards on Pro Football Focus in all 3 of those seasons. The Steelers will likely try to extend him before free agency and the franchise tag may be an option to keep him off the open market if it comes to that.

Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Marcus Gilbert, another solid player. A 2011 2nd round pick, Gilbert has made 62 starts in 5 seasons in the league and has graded out above average in 4 of those seasons, including 23th among offensive tackles in 2014 and 28th among offensive tackles in 2015. The big 6-6 329 pounder has only ever played right tackle in the NFL and doesn’t have the lateral quickness to move over to the left side; he barely played left tackle in college. That’s unfortunate because left tackle is the most important position on the offensive line and is currently a position of weakness for the Steelers, but it’s a strong offensive line otherwise.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The quarterback position is obviously the most valuable in the NFL, so Ben Roethlisberger is definitely the Steelers’ offensive MVP, but there might not be a non-quarterback as valuable to an offense as Steeler wide receiver Antonio Brown is to this offense. Together with Roethlisberger, they are a borderline unstoppable combination. In the 12 games Roethlisberger played last season, Antonio Brown caught 119 passes for 1599 yards and 10 touchdowns, a ridiculous 159/2132/13 pace over 16 games, which would shatter multiple records. He’s unlikely to quite put up those numbers this season, but the all-time record of 1964 receiving yards set 4 years ago by Calvin Johnson is certainly in reach if both Brown and Roethlisberger stay healthy.

Even with Roethlisberger missing time last season, Brown still finished with 136 catches for 1834 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s no one-year wonder either as he’s played all 48 games in the past 3 seasons and has averaged 125 catches for 1677 yards and 10 touchdowns per season. Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver in 2015, Brown has finished in the top-3 in three straight seasons and is the most dominant receiver in the league right now. The closest thing we’ve seen to Jerry Rice, Brown is simply uncoverable in the modern, spread out game and, still only going into his age 28 season, he has a chance to put up absurd career numbers and break a lot of records.

Brown could see even more targets and be an even bigger part of this offense this season because of off-season losses around him. Unlike on the offensive line, where the Steelers get center Maurkice Pouncey back from injury, in the receiving corps, the Steelers lost #2 wide receiver Martavis Bryant and starting tight end Heath Miller this off-season. The latter played well last season, but would have been going into his age 34 season this season, so his retirement isn’t a huge deal.

Bryant, however, was a promising young wide receiver who looked poised for a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, before failing his 3rd drug test in as many years and being suspended for at least a year. A 2014 4th round pick by the Steelers, Bryant flashed on 306 snaps as a rookie, averaging 2.75 yards per route run and scoring 8 touchdowns on 26 catches and then caught 50 passes for 765 yards and 6 touchdowns in 11 games in 2015. He was going to be a much bigger part of their offense in 2016 than Miller.

To order to try to replace Bryant, the Steelers will start 4th year player Markus Wheaton opposite Brown, with 2nd year player Sammie Coates likely as the 3rd receiver. Coates has incredible upside and profiles similar to Martavis Bryant at 6-1 212 with 4.43 wheels, but was limited to just 60 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015. The early off-season reports have been good, but he’s still really raw. Markus Wheaton, meanwhile, is experienced, with 19 starts in the past 2 seasons, and isn’t a bad starter at all, grading out above average in both of those seasons.

However, Wheaton is an unspectacular player going into the final year of his rookie contract, so the Steelers are probably hoping that Coates can push him to start outside and replace Bryant, but that seems unlikely. Most likely, Wheaton will start outside and move to his natural position on the slot in 3+ wide receiver sets, with Coates coming in as the 3rd receiver and playing outside. The Steelers also like 2nd year undrafted free agent Eli Rogers, even though he didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and he could also see snaps in 3-wide receiver sets. A natural slot receiver, he’d line up between Brown and Wheaton in that situation.

Miller they replaced with free agent with Ladarius Green, though it’s possible he never plays for them, as he didn’t practice all off-season and reportedly may have to retire because of lingering headaches from concussions. Green was drafted in the 4th round by the Chargers in 2012 and quickly became the heir apparent to aging future Hall-of-Fame tight end Antonio Gates, but Gates is somewhat remarkably still the starter in San Diego, going into his 14th season with the team, so Green signed in Pittsburgh on a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. He was expected to be the starter, but that’s up in the air now.

Even as the #2 tight end, Green actually played 665 snaps last season for the Chargers because they had so many injuries and he graded out above average for the 3rd straight season. He doesn’t come over completely inexperienced, though prior to 2015 he had never played more than 370 snaps in a season. If healthy, he’ll be a good replacement for Miller. Miller was a solid pass catcher, but never put up huge numbers and was primarily valuable as a run blocker at 6-5 256. The 11-year veteran Miller’s best receiving numbers season was probably 2012, when he caught 71 passes for 816 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Green is a great pass catcher when healthy, though the 6-6 237 pounder isn’t nearly as good as a blocker. Second year player Jesse James, who flashed on 211 snaps as a 5th round rookie last season, is the #2 tight end and would start in Green’s absence. He has upside, but is probably best as a #2 blocking tight end, so the Steelers are obviously hoping Green can suit up for them. If he can’t, they may be able to reclaim some or all of the 4.75 million dollar signing bonus they gave him this off-season, if they can prove that medical information was withheld. With Bryant and Miller gone and Green hurt, Antonio Brown will be targeted very often this season.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Roethlisberger, Beachum, and Pouncey weren’t the only Steeler starters on offense to miss time in 2015, as running back Le’Veon Bell was limited to just 6 games by a 2-game suspension and a knee injury that ended his season week 9. His healthy return should be huge for this offense, as Bell has been arguably the best running back in football over the past 2 seasons when healthy, though his return will be delayed by another 3-game suspension. The 2013 2nd round pick has rushed for 1917 yards and 11 touchdowns on 403 carries (4.76 YPC) in 22 games in the last 2 seasons, while adding 107 catches for 990 yards and another 3 touchdowns through the air.

Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back in 2014 and was #1 through week 9 last season before tearing his meniscus. Even coming off the injury, he figures to pick up right where he left off when he returns week 4, still only going into his age 24 season and his 4th year in the league. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, he’ll be in for a big payday if he can stay healthy, stay out of trouble, and run like he can this season. He’ll be an obvious candidate for the franchise tag next off-season.

The biggest reason why the Steelers moved the chains so easily even without Bell for most of the season was veteran backup running back DeAngelo Williams turning the clock back, rushing for 907 yards and 11 touchdowns on 200 carries (4.54 YPC) and adding 40 catches for another 367 yards. Part of that was the offensive line, but he still finished 8th among running backs on Pro Football Focus on his own. Williams was released by the Panthers following a 2014 season in which he played just 6 games and averaged 3.53 yards per carry, but he bounced back in a huge way in 2015. He’s the oldest running back in the NFL, going into his age 33 season, but has quietly averaged 4.75 yards per carry in his career and could still be effective in a smaller role with Bell back. He’ll be the starter for the first 3 weeks of the season and you can do a lot worse than him. Bell and Williams are arguably the best running back duo in the NFL.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

Even with the Steelers’ offense banged up and not performing as well overall as they did in 2014, the Steelers still won 10 games and made the playoffs. That’s mostly because of an improved defense, which finished 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2015. With their offense pretty set, the Steelers have used a lot of high draft picks on defense in the past few years, including their first 3 picks this off-season. Two of those picks who have really paid off for the Steelers are Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. The two starting 3-4 defensive ends, Heyward and Tuitt finished 10th and 14th respectively among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2015.

Tuitt struggled as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, finishing 40th among 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus, but had a breakout year in 2015. He’s talented enough to continue playing at a high level going forward and his best football could still be ahead of him, still only going into his age 23 season, but he is a one-year wonder. Heyward, on the other hand, is not. The 2011 1st round pick has played in all 48 games over the past 3 seasons and has finished in the top-19 among 3-4 defensive ends in all 3 seasons, maxing out at 6th in 2014. The Steelers wisely locked him up for 59.2 million over 6 years last off-season, as he’s probably their best defensive player.

The Steelers also added South Carolina State’s Javon Hargrave in the 3rd round, as depth was an issue on the defensive line in 2015, but he could easily struggle as a rookie. Heyward and Tuitt will command the lion’s share of the snaps again anyway, so it shouldn’t be a huge issue. Hargrave could also see snaps at nose tackle at 6-1 309, where he’ll compete with Daniel McCullers to replace departed free agent Steve McClendon. McClendon wasn’t a great player, but McCullers has played just 215 snaps in 2 seasons in the league since going in the 6th round, so they’re very inexperienced at the position now. It’s a weakness on an overall strong defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Heyward is one of six former 1st round picks on Pittsburgh’s defense, including 4 linebackers. At outside linebacker, it’s Jarvis Jones (2013) and Bud Dupree (2015). Despite having a pair of recent high draft picks, the Steelers’ best outside linebacker last season was still veteran James Harrison, a 2002 undrafted free agent who is somehow still going strong, even though now he’s the oldest defensive player in the NFL. Going into his age 38 season, his abilities could certainly fall off a cliff quickly and it’s really, really tough to rely on players in their late 30s, but he’s graded out above average in all 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, including 6th among 3-4 outside linebackers on 714 snaps last season. He may not get into the Hall-of-Fame when it’s all said and done, but he deserves to. The Steelers will obviously be hoping he can keep it up and hold off father time for another season.

The Steelers will also be hoping that Jones and Dupree can be better this season, as neither has lived up their first round rookie billing yet. Dupree was just a rookie last season, but he was horrible, finishing 109th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on Pro Football Focus. It’s hard to call him a bust this early in his career, but he’s certainly not off to a good start. Jones, on the other hand, you can call a bust, as the Steelers declined his 5th year option for 2017, even though it was guaranteed for injury only, making 2016 his contract year. It was probably the right move though, as Jones does have a history of injuries, missing 12 games in 3 seasons in the league. He’s also graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league and was limited to just 453 regular season snaps in 2015, despite playing a career best 15 games.

Arthur Moats is also in the mix for snaps, so Jones could easily be 4th in snaps played at the position for the 2nd straight season. Moats’ 554 regular season snaps in 2015 were a career high, but has graded about above average in 3 of 6 seasons in the league, specifically 2012-2014, and graded out just below average in 2015, outplaying Jones. He’s a solid rotational player for the Steelers, but little else. The Steelers will need Harrison to continue playing at a high level, Dupree to break out, or, less likely, Jones to break out, if they want this to be an above average group in 2016.

At middle linebacker, the Steelers are starting the other two former 1st round picks in this linebacking corps, Lawrence Timmons (2007) and Ryan Shazier (2014). However, they also both struggled in 2015, finishing 87th and 64th respectively among 97 linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Timmons has had better years, grading out above average in 6 of 9 seasons in the league and finishing 11th among middle linebackers as recently as 2014. He’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days might be behind him, but he still has bounce back potential.

Shazier does not have bounce back potential, as he struggled on 260 snaps as a rookie in 2014, before struggling last year on 667 snaps. He’s also missed 11 games with injury in 2 years in the league. Still only going into his age 24 season, he still has good upside, but the Steelers need him to take a step forward in 2016. It’s a linebacking corps with high upside, but that upside is all unlikely to be capitalized on. With the ancient James Harrison as easily their best linebacker, there isn’t a sure thing in the group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The 6th former 1st round pick that’s expected to play a large role for the Steelers on defense this season is this year’s top pick, Miami’s cornerback Artie Burns. He didn’t have an obvious rookie role when the Steelers drafted him, with Ross Cockrell and William Gay playing well last season and 2015 2nd round pick Senquez Golston returning from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season. However, Golston is injured again and is not expected to return until late in the season, if at all, after breaking his foot this off-season. That locks Burns into at least a top-3 role with Cockell and Gay, though he could struggle. Widely regarded as raw and a reach, Burns received just a 5th round grade from Pro Football Focus before the draft. That may prove to be an exaggeration, but he figures to struggle as a rookie. If he pans out for the Steelers, it’ll be long-term as he just turned 21.

Cockrell and Gay, meanwhile, both graded out above average last season, so both will be hard to unseat. Cockrell was the better of the two last season, finishing 27th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in a breakout season. A 4th round pick of the Bills in 2014, who played just 11 snaps as rookie before being a final cut last September, Cockrell had the Bills kicking themselves for letting him go. He made just 7 starts last season (684 snaps) and is still a one-year wonder, but he could continue to play at a high level in 2016 and is penciled into a starting role.

Gay, meanwhile, has quietly been a solid cornerback for years, making 92 starts in the past 8 seasons and grading out above average in 6 of those 8 seasons. Aside from a disastrous 2012 season in Arizona, Gay has been a very dependable starter for several years. He’s also never missed a game in 9 years in the league and, even going into his age 31 season, he’s not at the point where his age is a serious concern. The Steelers made a great move this off-season, keeping him on 3-year, 7.5 million dollar deal. He’ll likely keep his starting job and play the slot in sub packages, with Burns and Cockrell playing outside.

Burns isn’t the only rookie defensive back competing for a job in the secondary, as 2nd round rookie Sean Davis could start at safety. Following the legendary Troy Polamalu’s retirement, veteran Will Allen filled in admirably in 2015, but is no longer with the team, leaving them to choose between 2013 4th round pick Shamarko Thomas, who has played just 216 snaps in 3 seasons in the league (including just 23 in 2014 and 2015 combined), and the rookie Davis, a converted collegiate cornerback and also a reach. It figures to be a position of weakness regardless of who wins the job.

Michael Mitchell fortunately remains as the other starting safety, following a strong 2015 season in which he finished 24th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately, Mitchell has been inconsistent throughout his career, grading out below average in 4 of 7 seasons. He’s proven to be a late bloomer though, making 46 of his 55 career starts in the past 3 seasons, and grading out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons. Coming off of arguably the best season of his career, he might not be quite as good again in 2016, but should have another solid season. He’s probably the best defensive back on an underwhelming secondary.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Steelers had one of the best offenses in the league in 2014 (3rd in rate of moving the chains), but fell to 10th in 2015, largely as a result of injuries. Fortunately, their defense stepped up, allowing them to make the playoffs for the 2nd straight season, but ultimately lost a close one in Denver in the playoffs, a game they played without top receiver Antonio Brown, who was concussed. Injuries have already been a problem this off-season for the Steelers, as Senquez Golson and Ladarius Green could miss the entire season. On top of that, suspended wide receiver Martavis Bryant is out for the year, while running back Le’Veon Bell’s return from a torn meniscus will be delayed by a 3-game suspension. That being said, they’re still a talented team and they play in a wide open AFC where no team is without major flaws, so they’ll be in the mix once again, as long as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is healthy.

Prediction: 10-6 1st in AFC North

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Jaguars have been the worst team in the league in terms of win-loss record over the past 5 seasons, going 19-61 since the start of the 2011 season, including just 5-11 last season. However, things were really looking up for them going into this off-season, thanks to the combination of exciting young talent, a lot of cap space, a high draft pick, and last year’s high draft pick (#3 overall) Dante Fowler coming back from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season. After a strong off-season, this team is in position to compete in the weak AFC South. I’ll get into the rest later, but the most obvious reason why things are looking up for this team is young quarterback Blake Bortles, the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Bortles struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 58.9% of his passes for an average of 6.12 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while finishing dead last among eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. However, he was better in every aspect in his 2nd year in the league, completing 58.6% of his passes for an average of 7.31 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions, while finishing just slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, 23rd out of 38 eligible quarterbacks. The big, athletic 6-5 246 pounder has also rushed for 729 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 108 carries in 2 seasons in the league, an average of 6.75 yards per attempt. Only going into his age 24 season, he obviously could take another step forward in 2016.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Of course, it’s unfair to give Bortles all the credit for his improved pass numbers, as Bortles had arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL in 2015, as fellow 2nd year players Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns both had 1000+ yard breakout seasons. Robinson’s breakout year wasn’t a huge surprise, as the 2014 2nd round pick was on a solid pace through 10 games as a rookie, before going down for the season with injury, catching 48 passes for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, he caught 80 passes for 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 16 games, while ending the year as Pro Football Focus’ #12 ranked wide receiver, more than anyone was expecting out of him.

Hurns’ breakout year was way more of a surprise, considering he didn’t even get drafted in 2014. Hurns played 805 snaps in 16 games as a rookie, making 8 starts, but it felt like he was playing out of necessity more than anything, as he struggled, finishing 104th out of 110 eligible wide receivers that year. Many expected Marqise Lee, also a 2nd round pick in that 2014 draft, to beat out Hurns for the starting job in 2015, after an injury plagued rookie season. Instead, Hurns kept the starting job all season and caught 64 passes for 1031 yards and 10 touchdowns, while finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked wide receiver. He was rewarded with a 4-year, 40 million dollar extension this off-season. Both he and Robinson are going into just their 3rd year in the league, so they have very bright futures. Between Bortles, Robinson, and Hurns, the Jaguars found a ton of offensive talent in the 2014 draft class.

As I mentioned, the Jaguars also added Marqise Lee in the 2nd round of that 2014 draft, obviously wanting to surround Bortles with as much young offensive talent as they could. Lee hasn’t been nearly as good in 2 years in the league though, missing 9 games with injury, catching just 52 passes total, and grading out below average in both seasons. He played just 240 snaps last season and it’s no guarantee that he plays more snaps this season. He’ll compete for the #3 receiver job with Rashad Greene and Bryan Walters. Greene was their 5th round pick in 2015, while Walters is a 2010 undrafted free agent and veteran journeyman who actually flashed on 313 snaps last season. Prior to last season, he was primarily a special teamer though, with just 9 career catches from 2010-2014. Greene is reportedly the favorite, despite struggling on 170 snaps as a rookie.

As promising as the Jaguars’ offense is right now, Lee isn’t their only recent bust in terms of a player who was added with great expectations that has not lived up to them thus far. The Jaguars signed ex-Broncos tight end Julius Thomas to a 5-year, 46 million dollar deal last off-season, but he did not play well in his first year in Jacksonville, missing 4 games with injury and grading out 48th out of 67 eligible tight ends when he was on the field. That’s not a surprise, considering Thomas was largely a one-year wonder coming into the season. He’s also never played more than 14 games in a season in 5 years in the league and is not a good blocker. He could have a better year as a pass catcher in 2016, which is much needed on a team that doesn’t currently have a reliable 3rd option in the passing game, but he’s unlikely to ever live up to his contract.

The Jaguars also still have tight end Marcedes Lewis after all these years, keeping the 2006 1st round pick on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. Going into his age 32 season, with Thomas also in the mix, he obviously doesn’t have the same kind of role he used to have and he only has caught 59 passes in 35 games in the last 3 seasons, but the big 6-6 275 pounder is still valuable to the Jaguars as a run and pass blocker. He’s not a legitimate option in the passing game though and neither are any of the Jaguars’ wide receivers behind Robinson and Hurns, so they’ll need Thomas to step up and be a reliable 3rd option. It’s an overall strong receiving corps regardless, thanks to arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Jaguars had a lot of cap space coming into this off-season. While they used most of it on defense, the Jaguars did make some big signings on offense this off-season, including running back Chris Ivory, who was lured over from the Jets with a 5-year, 32 million dollar deal. That’s a lot of money for someone who is purely a two-down player. He’s rushed for 4031 yards and 24 touchdowns on 883 carries (4.57 YPC) in 6 years in the league, grading out above average in run grade in all 6 seasons, but he’s only caught 53 passes in 70 career games and has only once graded out above average as a pass catcher. He’s also never played more than 551 snaps in a season in his career, as a result of how one-dimensional he is.

It doesn’t help matters that Ivory is going into his age 28 season. That’s not old yet, but running backs don’t have very long careers and Ivory’s bruising running style makes him more susceptible to injuries. He’s only missed 2 games with injury over the last 3 seasons, but he’s missed 26 in 6 years in the league and has been limited in many other games by injuries. It’s also worth noting that he’s only once exceeded 200 carries in a season. He’ll likely split snaps with holdover TJ Yeldon, who was a 2nd round pick in 2015.

Yeldon was pretty good as a rookie, which is why it’s a surprise that the Jaguars brought in Ivory, especially considering how much they paid Ivory. Yeldon finished his rookie year as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked running back, rushing for 740 yards and 2 touchdowns on 182 carries (xx ypc), while adding 36 catches for 276 yards and another 1 touchdown through the air in 12 games. His overall numbers don’t look fantastic, but he broke a lot of tackles and got great yardage after contact. He and Ivory should form a two-headed monster at running back this season, with Yeldon seeing at least a third of the carries, playing passing downs, and providing insurance in case Ivory gets hurt again.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Ivory wasn’t the only big money free agent the Jaguars added this off-season, as they signed ex-Steelers offensive lineman Kelvin Beachum to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal. Beachum played all over Pittsburgh’s offensive line, but is expected to start at left tackle for the Jaguars in 2016. Beachum finished the 2014 season as Pro Football Focus’ #5 ranked offensive tackle in 16 starts at left tackle and was on his way to another solid year on the blindside in 2015, but tore his ACL 6 games into the season and missed the rest of the year.

The 2012 7th round pick has spent the last 2 seasons at left tackle, but is still a one-year wonder as a top level offensive lineman. He graded out below average in the first 2 seasons of his career, so he’s really only been good for 22 starts and he’s coming off of a serious injury. However, he’s only going into his age 27 season and has great bounce back potential. The way the Jaguars structured this deal is great for them because only 5 million in the first year is guaranteed, so the Jaguars can get out of the remaining 40 million over 4 years if he struggles this year. Most likely, he won’t struggle and will come back strong, but there are no guarantees.

Beachum will move incumbent left tackle Luke Joeckel inside to left guard. Given that Joeckel does not have experience at guard and Beachum does, Joeckel being moved inside should tell you all you need to know about how Joeckel’s tenure at left tackle went. The #2 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Joeckel has made 30 starts at left tackle over the past 2 seasons, but has largely proven to be a bust. He was Pro Football Focus’ 50th ranked offensive tackle out of 77 eligible in 2014 and 67th out of 84 eligible in 2015. The Jaguars declined his 5th year option for 2017, even though it was guaranteed for injury only, so this seems like Joeckel’s final year in Jacksonville. The only way he sees action on the blindside this season is if Beachum gets hurt again.

He’s no lock to even be the starter at left guard, as the Jaguars have 5 players competing for 3 starting jobs at left guard, center, and right guard. Joeckel is joined by Brandon Linder, AJ Cann, Mackenzy Bernadeau, and Luke Bowanko. Linder was great as a 3rd round rookie at right guard in 2014, grading out 10th among guards on Pro Football Focus. He was limited to 197 nondescript snaps in 2015 by injuries, but he was too good as a rookie not to regain a starting job somewhere on this offensive line in 2016, as long as he’s healthy. He’s spent most of the off-season at center.

AJ Cann replaced Linder when he was injured last season and it appears the 2015 3rd round pick will at least be given every chance to keep the right guard job in his 2nd year in the league. Cann wasn’t great as a rookie though, grading out below average. Given that he fell to the 3rd round, he’s not guaranteed to be better this year than he was last year. He could face competition for his job from free agent acquisition Mackenzy Bernadeau. Bernadeau has experience and versatility, making 40 career starts and playing left guard, right guard, and center, but he’s graded out below average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league since going in the 7th round in 2008 and isn’t getting better going into his age 30 season.

Bernadeau and Luke Bowanko are the only linemen on the roster with experience at center, but neither of them are legitimate candidates for the starting job unless Linder noticeably struggles at center. Bowanko made 14 starts at center in 2014 as a 6th round rookie, but finished 29th out of 41 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus and didn’t play a snap in 2015. He’ll be nothing more than a backup. Bernadeau, meanwhile, is much more likely to win a starting job at either left guard or right guard than center. He’s reportedly taken a lot of first team reps at left guard this off-season, with Beachum did working back from the injury and Joeckel still playing at left tackle as a result. Bernadeau’s familiarity with the position could land him the starting job to start the season.

Rounding out the offensive line at right tackle is Jermey Parnell. Parnell came over from the Cowboys last off-season on a 5-year, 32 million dollar deal, after a 2014 season in which he flashed on 388 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked offensive tackle in 5 starts. It was a risky deal considering 2014 was the first time in Parnell’s career in which he graded out above average, since going undrafted in 2009. However, Parnell wasn’t bad in his first year in Jacksonville, making 15 starts and grading out slightly above average on Pro Football Focus. His age is a concern, as he’s already going into his age 30 season, but he appears to be a capable starter. The offensive line should be better this season with Linder coming back and Beachum coming in, but there are still obvious problems.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the Jaguars are getting 2015 #3 overall pick Dante Fowler, a defensive end out of the University of Florida, back from a torn ACL that cost him his entire rookie season. Fowler is obviously unproven and coming off of a serious injury, but he’s a very talented, high upside player whose return is essentially like having a second top-5 round pick. The Jaguars’ injury issues on defense went beyond Fowler, as the Jaguars finished with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league. They will likely have better injury luck this season.

Along with Fowler, another defensive lineman who basically had a lost season in 2015 was defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks. Marks was limited to 144 nondescript snaps in 4 games by various injuries. He missed the start of the season coming back from a torn ACL he suffered late in 2014 and then his season ended prematurely with a torn triceps. Prior to 2015, he had missed just 2 games with injury in the previous 4 seasons and was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked defensive tackle in 2014. The 7-year veteran remains a one-year wonder, as 2014 was the only season in his career in which he’s graded out above average, and he’s going into his age 29 season coming off of two major injuries, but having him back should be nice, even if it’s just for depth purposes.

In addition to the two players returning from injury, the Jaguars also made an aggressive move in free agency to add ex-Bronco Malik Jackson on a 6-year, 90 million dollar deal. They might have overpaid a little, but the move certainly made sense. The Jaguars desperately needed help on a defense that ranked 27th in rate of moving the chains allowed and had plenty of cap space with which to be aggressive. Jackson’s a huge addition. The 2012 5th round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle in 2013, their 3rd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014, and their 5th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. The only reason he was allowed to hit the open market is because the Broncos needed the franchise tag for Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. Otherwise, Jackson would have been an obvious franchise tag candidate. The Broncos’ loss is the Jaguars’ gain.

Jackson will likely play defensive end in base packages opposite Jared Odrick, with Fowler sprinkled in. Odrick is similar to Jackson in frame (Odrick is 6-5 302 and Jackson is 6-5 293) and both have experience at 4-3 defensive tackle, 3-4 defensive end, and 4-3 defensive end. Both will move inside and rush the passer in sub packages. That’s where both are most valuable. Odrick is an inferior player to Jackson, but still a valuable asset upfront. A 2010 1st round pick, Odrick was a bit of a late bloomer, but finished in the top-19 among defensive tackles in 2013 and 2014, earning him a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar contract from the Jaguars. In his first season in Jacksonville, he finished 54th among edge defenders, unspectacular, but solid. He and Jackson should lead this defensive line in snaps played.

Fowler will play primarily in sub packages in what’s essentially his rookie season, but could see 600 or so snaps. On the other side in sub packages, it’ll primarily be Yannick Ngakoue, a 3rd round rookie defensive end out of the University of Maryland. The Jaguars also used a 4th round pick on Notre Dame defensive tackle Sheldon Day, who will compete for snaps at defensive tackle. Veteran holdovers Tyson Alualu and Roy Miller will likely play the majority of the snaps in base packages inside, as they did last season. Miller played well, finishing 36th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, but Alualu finished 87th out of 123 eligible. Alualu has been a massive bust as a 2009 1st round pick, grading out below average in all 7 seasons he’s been in the league.

Meanwhile, even though Miller played well last season, that hasn’t been the norm of him in his career, as it was the first time in his 7-year career that he graded out above average. Going into their age 29 seasons, things are not looking up for either of them. Both of them could see significantly fewer snaps this season on a defensive line that’s added much needed depth and talent. Marks returns, Day enters, and defensive end Dante Fowler could take over an every down role by the end of the season, pushing either Jackson or Odrick inside full-time. Anyway you look at it, it’s a deep defensive line that doesn’t have enough snaps for everyone to play as much as they should. That’s a good problem to have.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In addition to using their 3rd and 4th round picks on defensive linemen, the Jaguars also used their 1st and 2nd round picks on defensive players, which makes sense considering it was definitely the problem side of the ball in 2015. I’ll get into their first round pick later, but second round pick Myles Jack, a linebacker out of UCLA, has the potential to be a great pick. Before a pre-draft slide, many expected the Jaguars to take Jack at 5 in the first round. Instead, they were able to get him in the second as teams were scared off by his knee. Jack tore his meniscus in 2015 and missed most of the season. In the pre-draft process, it was apparently discovered that he may need microfracture surgery down the line, something Jack himself essentially confirmed. A top-5 talent, the Jaguars get an obvious steal if he’s healthy, but he’s a boom or bust pick because of the knee.

Immediately, he’ll compete with veteran incumbent middle linebacker Paul Posluszny for playing time. Posluszny has had a good career, but his best days are behind him. He’s graded out below average in each of the past 4 seasons and is going into his age 32 season. At this stage of his career, he’s only suited to be a two-down linebacker, so Jack could and should play sub packages as a rookie at the very least. Jack should have somewhat of a rookie role and could be an every down player by season’s end. He has a chance to be good in that role in year 1.

Telvin Smith will play every down outside, while Dan Skuta also remains as a two-down player outside, coming off the field for a 5th defensive back in sub packages. Smith was a mere 5th round pick in 2014, but he quickly became a starter, making 23 starts in 2 seasons in the league. He graded out slightly above average in 2014, slightly below average in 2015, and figures to be somewhere around there again in 2016. The 6-3 218 pounder predictably struggles against the run, but is great in coverage.

Skuta, meanwhile, also graded out slightly below average last season in his first season in Jacksonville. A 7-year veteran, Skuta has graded out above average in 3 of the last 5 seasons, but has just 30 career starts and the 417 snaps he played last season were a career high. He’s a capable base package outside linebacker, who can also rush the passer off the edge some in sub packages, but he’s an unspectacular player who is going into his age 30 season. It’s a solid, but unspectacular linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Jaguars also used their first round pick on defense, taking Florida State cornerback Jalen Ramsey at #5 overall. Like Jack, Ramsey was a steal, as much as a player can be a steal at #5 overall. At one point a candidate to go #1 to Tennessee before they traded down with the Rams, Ramsey was not expected to get past 4 on draft day, but was inexplicably passed on by both San Diego and Dallas at 3 and 4. Ramsey was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked draft prospect and compares favorably to Arizona’s Patrick Peterson. Off-season knee surgery slows down his development, but he will probably start the season as the #1 cornerback.

The Jaguars also added veterans Prince Amukamara and Tashaun Gipson in free agency. The former will start next to Ramsey at cornerback, while the latter is a safety. Amukamara came very inexpensively this off-season, getting just 5 million on 1-year deal. It makes some sense that Amukamara would take a short-term deal and try free agency again next off-season, considering he missed 5 games with injury in 2011, but he’s missed 25 games with injury in his career, so he’s never been a durable player. He’s always been good when he’s on the field though, grading out above average in 4 straight seasons, including 32nd in 2015. As long as he stays relatively healthy, he should be worth what the Jaguars paid him this off-season.

Last season, without Ramsey and Amukamara, Aaron Colvin, Davon House, and Dwayne Gratz were the Jaguars’ top-3 cornerbacks. Gratz graded out below average in 2015, as the 2013 3rd round pick did in 2014 as well, but Colvin and House weren’t bad. House, who got a 4-year, 24.5 million dollar contract last off-season, is the favorite for the #3 cornerback slot. He graded out around average in 2015, as he has in every season of his 5-year career. Colvin is a solid player as well, but he’s serving a 4-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs to start the season. That makes it very, very tough for him to beat out House for the #3 job. It’s a much deeper group of cornerbacks this season, so much so that Gratz is likely on the roster bubble.

Things were horrible at safety last season, as Sergio Brown, Josh Evans, and John Cyprien played 555, 621, and 1015 snaps respectively and finished 82nd, 84th, and 87th respectively among 89 eligible safeties. As I mentioned, the Jaguars signed Tashaun Gipson to plug up one hole at safety, giving the ex-Brown a 5-year, 35.5 million dollar deal. Cyprien, meanwhile, remains as the other starter, going into his 4th year in the league. The 2013 2nd round pick has made 44 starts in 3 seasons in the league, but has never graded out above average and was abysmal in both 2013 and 2015. Going into the final year of his rookie contract, this might be his final season in Jacksonville.

Gipson is not necessarily better. In fact, he was worse last season, finishing 88th out of 89 eligible safeties. He was much better in 2014, when he finished 10th among safeties, but he’s a one-year wonder who has only once graded out above average in 4 years in the league, since going undrafted in 2012. He has bounce back potential and should be an upgrade by default, but it really seems like the Jaguars overpaid for him. He’s part of an overall improved secondary that still has obvious issues.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jaguars added a lot of talent to their young core this off-season and figure to take a step forward in 2016, after being the worst team in the league over the past 5 seasons. However, a big step forward from 5 wins still might not put them in the playoffs and they could be a ways away from making any real noise. They still have obvious problems on defense and figure to play a lot of high scoring games. If young players step up and exceed expectations, they could sneak into the playoffs in a weak AFC South, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Prediction: 7-9 4th in AFC South

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Houston Texans 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Texans have gone 18-14 over the past 2 seasons, since ex-Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien took over as head coach of a previously 2-14 team. They’ve done that despite remarkably playing 7 different quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. Their offense wasn’t horrendous in 2015, as they finished 22nd in rate of moving the chains, but their defense was definitely what carried them to a divisional title and a home playoff game, as they finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Of course, the Texans got blown out in that home playoff game, losing 30-0, as Brian Hoyer completed just 15 of 34 passes for 136 yards and 4 interceptions. The game was a lot closer than a final score, as the Chiefs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until after stud defensive end JJ Watt went out for the game with an injury in the third quarter, but the way Hoyer played that game, the Texans didn’t stand a chance, no matter how well their defense played. It’s not indicative of how Hoyer played all season. He just had the worst game of his season at the worst time. However, he wasn’t great in the regular season either, completing 60.7% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 9 starts, leading a mediocre Texan offense and finishing 31st out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus.

It was obvious the Texans needed a quarterback and, rather than waiting for one to fall to them at 22 in the draft or trying to move up on draft day, the Texans addressed the quarterback position early in free agency, signing ex-Bronco quarterback Brock Osweiler to a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal and releasing Hoyer. I’m really not sold on Osweiler being worth that much though. His overall numbers weren’t bad in 7 starts with the Broncos in 2015, completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 7.15 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while grading out 20th out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled with him under center, moving the chains at a mere 68.66% rate in the 6 games he started and finished.

The Broncos had offensive issues beyond the quarterback position, but the Broncos’ offense was barely worse in the 8 regular season games Peyton Manning started and finished and Manning was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season. That’s despite the fact that the Broncos ran the ball a lot better in the second half of the season, when Osweiler made all of his starts. The fact that the Broncos were willing to go back to Manning instead of Osweiler when he returned from injury, as much as Manning had struggled to start the year, and is telling, as is the fact that the Broncos wouldn’t offer Osweiler any more than 45 million over 3 years.

Osweiler was just a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, so he wasn’t exactly in high demand coming out of college, and he’s made just 7 starts since then, so we have a very limited sample size. There was some promise in that sample size, but it’s hard to justify paying him more than the Broncos would offer when they’re the ones who know him best. I know Houston was desperate for a quarterback, but so were the Broncos and I’m not sure Osweiler is a huge upgrade over Hoyer, though he obviously has way more upside, only going into his age 26 season.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With struggles under center and a great defense supporting them, it should come as no surprise that the Texans’ offense has ranked in the top-5 in carries in each of the past 2 seasons (551 carries in 2014 and 472 carries in 2015). However, they’ve really struggled on the ground, averaging just 3.80 yards per carry over that time period. They needed an upgrade at running back as much as they needed an upgrade at quarterback this off-season and they got a good one, signing ex-Dolphin Lamar Miller to a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal.

Miller has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 638 career carries in 4 years in the league and has finished in the top-7 among running backs in pure run grade on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons (joining Marshawn Lynch and Le’Veon Bell as the only running backs who can say that). However, he’s gotten just 410 carries over those past 2 seasons, turning them into 1871 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.56 YPC). In 2014, you could blame his struggles in the passing game for his overall low usage, but there was no excuse in 2015, when he graded out above average as a pass blocker for the first time in his career and added 47 catches for 397 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air on an offense that was otherwise horrendous.

Miller certainly won’t be underutilized in Houston. Even if they pass the ball more often this season with Osweiler coming in, they still are a quick pace team that led the NFL in plays run last season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for Miller to get the ball. In a league where few backs surpass 300 carries in a season anymore, Miller could easily finish in the top-5 in touches if he can stay healthy. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2012, but he’s still somewhat of a projection to a larger role, as he’s never had more than 254 touches in a season.

Miller’s only real competition for carries is Alfred Blue. A 2014 6th round pick, Blue has gotten plenty of action in his first 2 seasons in the league, with 352 carries, but he turned those into just 1226 yards and 4 touchdowns, a weak 3.48 YPC. He’s the reason why the Texans brought Miller in and he’ll be nothing more than a pure backup to Blue. He could even be pushed for his #2 job at some point this season by 4th round rookie Tyler Ervin, out of San Jose State. They’d likely split carries if Miller went down. It’s an obviously improved group of running backs.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

In addition to quarterback and running back, it’s obvious the Texans made the wide receiver position a priority this off-season, adding Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller in the 1st round of the draft and Ohio State wide receiver Braxton Miller in the 3rd round of the draft. Miller is much more of a project, converting from quarterback to wide receiver just last season, but Fuller has a great chance to play serious snaps as a rookie. He’ll compete with 2nd year player Jaelen Strong for the #2 wide receiver job this season. Fuller would seem to be the early favorite, but Strong wasn’t bad on 320 snaps as a rookie, as the 4th receiver behind departed mediocre veterans Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts, so don’t be surprised if he plays a big role.

DeAndre Hopkins remains locked in as the #1 receiver, though he’s unlikely to see the 192 targets (3rd in the NFL) that he saw last season, with more options to throw to in the passing game. Still, he’s finished in the top-12 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons, so he’s great player and figures to be a frequent target of Osweiler’s. With likely better quarterback play, more talent around him, and his best years possibly still ahead of him, going into just his age 24 season, the 2013 1st round pick could easily come close to last year’s numbers, when he caught 111 passes (3rd in the NFL) for 1521 yards (also 3rd in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the whole game and the Texans’ best offensive player.

Things are not as good at tight end, where 2014 3rd round pick CJ Fiedorowicz remains as the starter. Fiedorowicz struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 63th out of 67 eligible tight ends and, though he moved up to 29th in 2015 (above average), he still struggled mightily as a pass catcher, catching just 17 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown in 16 games. He’s a strong run blocker at 6-5 265, but little else. Ryan Griffin actually led all Texan tight ends in receiving last year, catching 20 passes for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he was terrible all around, finishing 66th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 351 snaps. He’s graded out below average in 3 straight seasons, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2013. There’s definitely upside in this unit, but they could still struggle for consistency after DeAndre Hopkins.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Brian Hoyer’s terrible performance in the playoff game was a huge part of the reason why this offense couldn’t move the ball, but the loss of left tackle Duane Brown to a torn quad was definitely felt as well, both in pass protection and on the ground. Brown went down for the season with a torn quad week 17, a huge loss, considering he finished the season 13th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. He’s no one-year wonder, finishing in the top-24 among offensive tackles in each of the last 6 seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, and is reportedly not a lock to be ready by week 1, so there’s some cause for concern. That being said, he figures to have a strong season again once he’s finally able to play.

Brown isn’t the only Texans’ offensive lineman dealing with a major injury, as rookie 2nd rounder pick Nick Martin will miss the entire season with an ankle injury. Following the loss of capable veteran Ben Jones in free agency, Martin was expected to start, but the Texans will now turn to 2nd year undrafted free agent Greg Mancz, who played just 1 offensive snap as a rookie. It’s a major position of concern after losing first Jones and then Martin. Mancz figures to be overwhelmed as a starter.

Meanwhile at right guard, free agent acquisition Jeff Allen, formerly of the Chiefs, replaces right guard Brandon Brooks, who also left as a free agent this off-season. Allen is coming off of a very strong season, finishing 16th among guards on Pro Football Focus, earning him a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal. The Texans might have overpaid, considering he graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league in 2012 and 2013, before missing all but 1 game in 2014 with an elbow injury. Even in 2015, he only played 429 snaps and made 8 starts, so he’s unproven and a risky signing, but the 2012 2nd round pick is not a bad starter.

The same cannot really be said of Xavier Su’a-Filo, a 2014 2nd round pick who struggled in his first season as a starter in 2015, finishing 61st out of 81 eligible guards. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league though. The Texans will obviously be hoping he improves, as they don’t really have another option. Oday Aboushi is their next best options, but he has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, dating back to his rookie year in 2013, when he was a 5th round pick of the Jets.

Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Derek Newton, who is coming off of his 2nd straight seasons grading out above average, after struggling mightily early in his career. Newton has never been a good pass protector, but he’s been dominant in the run game in each of the last 2 seasons. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked offensive tackle in 2015, including 13th in pure run blocking grade. Obviously, pass protection is more important in today’s NFL, but Newton is not a bad starter. It’s not a bad offensive line overall, but there are definitely some problems, especially with injuries hitting them hard already.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

It’s not just the offensive line where the Texans have already been hit hard by injury, as stud defensive end JJ Watt is questionable for week 1 after undergoing back surgery in July. As I mentioned earlier, the Texans’ defense has been what’s carried this team over the past couple of seasons. And what’s carried this defense has been JJ Watt, 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Last year was arguably the worst season Watt has had since his rookie year in 2011, as he finished 2nd among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus behind Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That’s obviously an incredible season, as he still finished #1 among 3-4 defensive ends for the 4th straight season, but he didn’t have the highest overall defensive grade on Pro Football Focus for the 4th straight season, as both Donald and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly both finished higher.

I would have voted for Donald over Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, but Watt should have won it in 2013, when he lost to Kuechly, so it all evens out. Any way you look at it, he’s one of the top few players in the entire NFL. The only reason he wasn’t quite as dominant as 2012-2014 is because he was hampered by injuries down the stretch, including a broken hand. Watt still hasn’t missed a game with injury in 5 years in the league, though his status is now in question for week 1, which puts a bit of damper on his 2016 expectations. Needless to say, any time he misses with injury would hurt this team’s playoff chances.

Things are not nearly as good on the rest of the defensive line. That might sound weird to say, considering likely future hall-of-famer Vince Wilfork starts at nose tackle, but he’s purely a two-down player at this stage in his career. WIlfork played just 562 regular season snaps last season and, while he excelled against the run, finishing 25th among interior defenders in that category, he got absolutely no pass rush, finishing 106th out of 123 eligible interior defenders in that category. Going into his age 35 season, the end is near for Big Vince. The Texans drafted his likely successor in the 5th round, taking Georgia Tech nose tackle DJ Reader, who measured in at 6-3 327 at the combine. Wilfork should still play the run well in a limited role this season, but it’s not out of the question that Reader could push him for snaps down the stretch.

The other defensive end spot is particularly problematic, as that’s an every down position without anything close to a clear starter. Departed free agent Jared Crick wasn’t good in that spot last season, but no one currently on the roster looks like an upgrade. 2014 6th round pick Jeoffrey Pagan, 2015 6th round pick Christian Covington, and 2014 undrafted free agent Brandon Dunn will compete for snaps at the position. None have any noteworthy experience. Pagan struggled on 191 snaps as a rookie in 2014 and played just 44 snaps last season. Covington played just 167 snaps as a rookie last season. Dunn played a career high 142 snaps last season. It’s a major position of weakness. This defensive line badly needs a healthy JJ Watt.

Grade: B

Linebackers

It wasn’t just the JJ Watt show last season on defense though, as a pair of former first round picks both took a big leap forward last season at outside linebacker. 2014 #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney and 2012 1st round pick Whitney Mercilus remain as starters. Clowney was the higher pick, but Mercilus had the better 2015 season, coming in 15th among edge defenders, while Clowney was 26th. This came after Mercilus finished below average in each of his first 3 years in the league from 2012-2014. He could keep up this high level of play and he has former 1st round pick talent, but he remains a one-year wonder.

Clowney’s biggest issue through 2 years in the league has been injuries, as back and knee problems have limited him to just 17 games in 2 seasons in the league. 13 of those games came last year though and his performance on the field was solid as well. Oozing with talent and still only going into his age 23 season, Clowney could have a big-time breakout year this year if he can stay healthy. Mercilus might have had the better 2015, but Clowney has much higher upside. Both are valuable starters though. They also have a talented reserve in John Simon, who finished last season above average on 639 snaps, after flashing on 239 snaps in 2014. A 2013 4th round pick of the Ravens, Simon has proven the Ravens wrong for giving on him so quickly. He’s an excellent insurance policy that should see about 30 snaps per game regardless.

Inside, the Texans have a promising young linebacker and a declining veteran linebacker. Brian Cushing has been with the Texans since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2009 and had some fantastic seasons early in his career. However, he missed 20 games between 2012-2013 with lower body injuries and has graded out below average in each of the past 2 seasons, including 70th out of 97 eligible last season. Going into his age 29 season, Cushing’s best days are likely behind him.

Fellow starter Benardrick McKinney’s best days appear him ahead of him though, after the 2015 2nd round pick flashed on 411 snaps as a rookie. The 6-4 246 pounder is a force against the run and showed enough in coverage to warrant a larger role in 2016, after playing only in base packages in 2015. Safety Eddie Pleasant played around the line of scrimmage as essentially a 2nd linebacker in sub packages next to Brian Cushing, while McKinney sat on the bench. McKinney is expected to get a shot to play all three downs this season, though it’s not out of the question that Pleasant keeps his sub package job. Along with Clowney, Mercilus, and Simon, McKinney gives the Texans 4 promising young linebackers.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Even if Pleasant doesn’t keep his sub package role, he could still play a significant role on a team whose starting safety jobs are both up for grabs. Quintin Demps and Andre Hal made 13 and 11 starts respectively at safety last year, but both graded out below average. Demps is going into his age 31 season and has never been very good. Hal, meanwhile, is still young, but he wasn’t highly drafted, falling to the 7th round in 2014. Pleasant could push both of them for their jobs, though Demps is probably most vulnerable. Pleasant isn’t a great option either, as the 2012 7th round pick has just 1 career start and struggled in limited action last season. His value comes way more from his versatility and his ability to play both safety and linebacker at 5-11 210, rather than from him being a particularly good player. Whoever starts at safety, it should be a position of weakness.

Cornerback, on the other hand, is a much stronger position. Johnathan Joseph is coming off of arguably the best season of his career, finishing 9th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. In 5 years in Houston, he’s missed just 4 games with injury and has graded out above average in all 5 seasons, with his highest ranked season coming last season. He’s going into his age 32 season so his age is starting to become a concern, but he seems to still be going strong. He’s made the Texans look smart for locking him up on a 3-year, 22 million dollar extension last off-season.

It was a bit of a surprise when the Texans did that, as it looked like Joseph was going into his final year in Houston in 2015 when the Texans used the 16th overall pick on Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson. Between him and fellow former first round pick Kareem Jackson (20th overall in 2010), who they had just re-signed for 34 million over 4 years, it looked like the Texans were pretty set at cornerback for the foreseeable future. Instead, Joseph remains as a starter and Johnson will spent 2016 as the 3rd cornerback again. He graded out slightly below average as a rookie, but could be noticeably better in his 2nd year in the league.

Jackson also graded out below average last season and that’s a little bit more concerning, given how much money they gave him last off-season and given that he has a history of inconsistency. Jackson finished 12th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 11th in 2014, which is what earned him that contract, but he’s graded out below average in each of his other 4 seasons in the league. He’s also missed 9 games with injury in the last 3 seasons combined. There’s bounce back back potential here if he can stay healthy, but there are definitely no guarantees with him. It’s overall a solid secondary though.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans did a good job of identifying their biggest needs and addressing them this season, using high picks on wide receivers and spending big money to bring in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller in free agency. However, Osweiler is still an unproven quarterback at best and it’s possible their young wide receivers take a year or so to become impact players in the NFL. Lamar Miller was a great signing, but the Texans are banged up going into the season and have one of the league’s oldest rosters overall. Even in a weak AFC South, it’s going to be tough for them to repeat. The division is not as bad as it was last season.

Prediction: 7-9 3rd in AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Given that they had gone 12-0 in division play in 2013 and 2014, winning the division both times, it looked inevitable that the Colts would win the division again in 2015. Instead, the Colts lost 2 divisional games and finished 8-8, in 2nd place in the AFC South. It wasn’t that the division got tougher as the trio of Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee was still not a formidable one. The Colts just had a much worse season overall, falling from 5th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 to 20th in 2015.

The biggest difference was on offense, where they fell from 10th to 24th, and the obvious reason why is the quarterback play. Franchise quarterback Andrew Luck missed 9 games and was limited in many others with a variety of injuries, including a bruised rotator cuff in his shoulder, broken ribs, and ultimately a lacerated kidney that ended his season. Even when on the field, Luck did not play well at all, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

In fact, when backup Matt Hasselbeck came in for the injured Luck, it seemed to stabilize the offense, as he completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. However, the 39-year-old Hasselbeck was completely beat up by the end of the season, sapping his play, ending his season week 16, and ultimately ending his career, as the 18-year NFL veteran retired this off-season. Any way you look at it, it was a lost season for Andrew Luck in 2015 and, as a result, it was a lost season for the Colts in an otherwise completely winnable division.

However, there’s a ton of bounce back potential with Luck as well and, as a result, a ton of bounce back potential for the Colts in an improved, but still very winnable division. Luck is just going into his age 27 season and the 2012 #1 overall pick was a top-12 quarterback on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, including 9th in 2014. Going into the final year of his rookie contract, the Colts still have a ton of faith in him, making him the highest paid player in the league by giving him a 5-year, 123 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal this off-season.

The Colts are obviously betting heavily that Luck will stay healthy in 2016, so much so that they don’t really have a viable backup option. Hasselbeck was okay in 2015, but he retired, leaving the Colts with ex-Green Bay backup Scott Tolzien and 2014 undrafted free agent Stephen Morris. Morris has never thrown an NFL pass and is still regarded as very raw, only going into his age 24 season. He was so raw last season that the Colts brought in street free agents Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman to play quarterback week 17 last season when Hasselbeck was hurt, with a possible playoff spot on the line.

Tolzien, meanwhile, struggled mightily in limited action as Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay, completing 61.5% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions, since going undrafted out of the University of Wisconsin in 2011. He spent most of the past 2 seasons as the #3 quarterback in Green Bay, after struggling so much in Rodgers’ absence in 2013. The Colts will pray that Luck stays healthy this season and long-term, but he’s got a very good chance to have a bounce back year and potentially take the Colts back to the playoffs.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

With the idea of keeping Luck healthy long-term, the Colts prioritized the offensive line this off-season. They only allowed 37 sacks last season, but have consistently given up pressure and hits at too high of a rate throughout Luck’s 4-year career and have always struggled to open up holes in the running game. The Colts used a 1st round pick on Alabama center Ryan Kelly, a 3rd round pick on Texas Tech offensive tackle Le’Raven Clark, and a 5th round pick on North Dakota State’s Joe Haeg. Kelly will be plugged in immediately as a starter and, at the very least, should help open up holes in the running game. Center has been a big problem position for the Colts for years and Kelly has a good chance to be one of the best centers in the league in 2-4 years.

Clark, meanwhile, will compete for a starting job at right tackle, as could Haeg. Right tackle Joe Reitz wasn’t bad last season, grading out above average on 950 snaps, primarily playing at right tackle, but also playing at left and right guard in a few games. Prior to 2015, he had graded out above average in limited action as a reserve in 2013 and 2014, on 149 and 277 snaps respectively. The Colts re-signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent, so they clearly value him as a starting option, but he’ll face competition and is not the long-term solution, going into his age 31 season.

At right guard, Hugh Thornton played the most snaps last season, but was benched this off-season for 2nd year player Denzelle Good. That was probably the right decision, considering Good flashed on 274 snaps as a 7th round rookie in 2015, while Thornton has struggled in 3 seasons in the league. He’s made 32 starts in those 3 seasons, since being drafted by the Colts in the 3rd round in 2013, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including 60th out of 81 eligible in 2015. Good, meanwhile, has upside, but is far from proven and could also struggle. He was just a 7th round pick in last year’s draft.

Fortunately, things are a lot better on the left side of the offensive line. Left guard Jack Mewhort had a breakout 2nd season in the league, finishing 9th among guards on Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t bad as a 2nd round rookie in 2014 either, grading out slightly above average, and has already made 30 starts in 2 seasons in the league. He’s seen some time at right tackle, but he seems to have settled in at left guard. He suffered a scare this off-season and it was originally reported he tore his ACL, but he seems to have escaped with a 2-4 week injury and is merely questionable for the start of the season. That’s obviously great news for the Colts.

Left tackle Anthony Castonzo, meanwhile, has been the constant on this offensive line since the Colts drafted him in the 1st round in the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s made 73 of a possible 80 starts at left tackle since then and remains there again in 2016. Despite the struggles of the Colts’ offensive line over that time period, Castonzo has actually played pretty well. He’s been a top-36 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons, finishing last season 20th and maxing out at 12th in 2014. It’s an improved offensive line, but one that still has problems on the right side.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Colts have had issues opening up holes on the ground over the past few seasons. It’s part of why they struggled running the ball in 2015, averaging 3.63 YPC, 31st in the NFL, but lead back Frank Gore is also very much to blame. Spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the San Francisco 49ers, Gore came over to the Colts last off-season on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. However, the aging back very much looked his age in 2015, turning 260 carries into just 967 yards and 6 touchdowns, an average of 3.75 YPC.

Gore’s 12,040 rushing yards rank 15th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. However, he’s also going into his age 33 season with 2702 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 career carries. It’s also worth noting that Gore’s worst football came at the end of the season, which could be a sign that Gore is just out of gas. In the final 8 games of the season, he averaged 3.22 yards per carry on 140 carries, after averaging 4.30 yards per carry on 120 carries in the first 8 games of the season.

Even when he was struggling, the Colts kept giving him the lion’s share of the carries, as no other Colts running back had more than 31 carries. At the very least, Gore needs to be part of a timeshare at this stage in his career, but the Colts inexplicably did not do anything to upgrade the backup running back situation. Veteran journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman will compete with rookie undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson for the #2 running back job, likely meaning they plan for Gore to get another 250+ carries. That seems like a mistake and should limit their offense.

Turbin has rushed for 1127 yards and 1 touchdown on 281 carries in his career (4.01 YPC), while adding 50 catches for 450 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air. Todman, meanwhile, has rushed for 472 yards and 3 touchdowns on 115 carries in his career (4.10 YPC), while adding 40 catches for 314 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air. The Colts like Ferguson and, with Gore as old as he is, there’s a very good chance that Ferguson is seeing a significant role by late in the season. That would probably not be a good thing for the Colts, considering the entire league just let him go undrafted. He’s not the type of guy you want to be relying on behind an out-of-gas veteran and two mediocre journeymen.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

Frank Gore is one aging veteran that the Colts signed last off-season that didn’t work out. Another is wide receiver Andre Johnson, who the Colts signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal, after he was released by divisional rival Houston. Like Gore, Johnson is a possible future Hall-of-Famer, but, like Gore, Johnson was an aging veteran who was out of gas in 2015. The Colts released him one-year and 7.5 million into that 3-year deal, ahead of his age 35 season in 2016.

Unlike with Gore, the Colts have a obvious internal replacement for him, as 2015 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett figures to have a much bigger role in his 2nd year in the league. Because of the addition of Johnson, Dorsett began the year as the #4 receiver and suffered a broken ankle mid-season that really hurt his chances of beating out Johnson for playing time, even as bad as Johnson was playing. Ultimately, Dorsett played just 215 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but he still has plenty of upside going into his 2nd year in the league.

Dorsett isn’t the only young wide receiver the Colts have, as Donte Moncrief was a 3rd round pick in 2014. Even with the additions of Johnson and Dorsett in the off-season, Moncrief played 836 snaps in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, after flashing on 421 snaps as a rookie. Moncrief’s numbers weren’t great or anything, but part of that was because of the Colts’ quarterback situation and he still graded out above average for the 2nd straight season, finishing 40th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Moncrief could have his best year in the league. He and Dorsett will battle for the #2 job behind veteran TY Hilton, but Moncrief appears the clear favorite right now, pushing Dorsett into the #3 role.

Hilton is also coming off of a less than stellar statistical year, at least by his standards, as a result of the Colts’ quarterback situation. However, he still caught 69 passes for 1124 yards and 5 touchdowns. The fact that that’s a quiet year from him just shows you how good he is when he’s at his best. The 2012 3rd round pick has topped 1000+ yards in 3 straight seasons, maxing out with 82 catches for 1345 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014. He’s graded out 34th, 10th, and 17th among wide receivers in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. He was well worth the 5-year, 65 million dollar extension the Colts gave him last off-season, ahead of what would have been his contract year, and he could have another 1300+ yard year with Luck healthy in 2016.

Hilton isn’t the only pass catcher the Colts added in that 2012 draft (the same one in which they added Luck), as they used a 2nd round pick on tight end Coby Fleener and a 3rd round pick on tight end Dwayne Allen as well. Unlike Hilton, the Colts did not lock their two tight ends up ahead of their contract years. The Colts brought Allen back on a 4-year, 29.4 million dollar deal this off-season, but watched Fleener sign a 5-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Saints. It’s was always assumed that the Colts would not be able to re-sign both of them, but it’s very surprising that Allen got as much money as he did, considering he was coming off of a down year in 2015.

Allen was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked tight end as a rookie in 2012, their 9th ranked tight end in 2014, and had graded out above average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career prior to 2015, excelling as a run blocker at 6-3 265. However, he’s missed 21 games with injury over the past 3 seasons and injuries really seemed to take a toll on his play in 2015, as he fell to 62nd out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus. The Colts are obviously betting on a bounce back year and he definitely has bounce back potential if he can stay healthy. With Fleener gone, Jack Doyle will be the #2 tight end. The 2013 undrafted free agent flashed on 341 snaps last season with Allen hurt. WIth a young, talented group of wide receivers, the Colts’ receiving corps is still solid despite losing Fleener.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

In addition to a significant drop-off offensively from 2014 to 2015, the Colts also saw a significant drop-off defensively from 2014 to 2015, falling from 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 to 14th. The fix on defense is not nearly as easy as the fix on offense is, as the Colts’ defense doesn’t have an Andrew Luck caliber player returning from injury to save them. Their drop-off from 2014 to 2015 was largely because this is an aging, veteran-led defense that had several players show significant decline from 2014 to 2015. With the focus of their draft being the offensive line, the Colts didn’t add much defensively through the draft and still have very few promising young defensive players.

One promising young player is 2015 3rd round pick Henry Anderson out of Stanford, who finished 12th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus on 453 snaps, before his promising rookie year was cut short by a torn ACL suffered in November, ending his season after 9 games. He’s reportedly not a lock to return by week 1 and might have to wait until his 3rd year in the league in 2017 to break out as an every down defensive end in the Colts 3-4, as he flashed the ability to do as a rookie.

Anderson is not the only rookie who played a significant role on the Colts’ defensive line in 2015, as 5th round pick David Parry played 657 snaps, primarily serving as a nose tackle in base packages at 6-1 308. Parry was not nearly as good as his former Stanford teammate Anderson though. In fact, he was one of the worst interior defensive linemen in the league last season, finishing 117th out of 123 eligible on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 2nd year in the league, Parry will have plenty of competition for his job from 2014 undrafted free agent Zach Kerr, who flashed on 320 snaps last season, and 4th round rookie Hassan Ridgeway. The 6-1 326 pound Kerr has more of a traditional nose tackle’s build than Parry (6-1 308) or Ridgeway (6-3 303) and should be considered the early favorite at what should again be a position of weakness for the Colts on the nose.

Anderson is not the only Colts’ defensive lineman to be coming off of a significant injury either, as veteran 3-4 defensive end Arthur Jones is coming off of an ankle injury that cost him his entire 2015 season. Jones signed a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal with the Colts two off-seasons ago, but has been limited to just 9 games in 2 seasons by a variety of injuries. Jones also struggled mightily on 371 snaps in 2014 in the 9 games he did play, finishing 40th out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. As a result, Jones had to take a 2 million dollar pay cut to keep his roster spot for 2016. Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, which is how he got such a big contract, but he’s graded out above average just once in 6 years in the league and isn’t going to get better, going into his age 30 season, coming off of a major injury. Making matters worse, he’s suspended for the first 4 games of the season after failing a drug test.

With Anderson and Jones up in the air with injuries and/or suspension, expect veteran Kendall Langford to lead this defensive line in snaps again, after grading out above average on 851 snaps making all 16 starts in 2015. Langford hasn’t missed a game in 8 years in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2008, the longest active consecutive games streak by a defensive lineman. Langford has been an average starting defensive lineman more or less, grading out above average in 4 of 8 seasons in the league.

He’s spent 5 years of his career in a 3-4 and seems to be a better fit in that system, grading out above average in 3 of the 5 seasons in which he’s played 3-4 defensive end. He was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2009 and 2010 and finished 16th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2015. Going into his age 30 season, his best days are likely behind him, but he should have another solid season as a starter for a team that desperately needs him to. With Anderson and Jones dealing with injuries, Ridgeway, the 4th round rookie, could also see snaps at defensive end as a rookie. It’s a thin defensive line unless Anderson can come back healthy from his torn ACL.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts also have a trio of 30+ year old veterans at outside linebackers, as Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, and Erik Walden are going into their age 34, age 35, and age 31 seasons respectively. All three are also going in the final years of their contracts, so it’s surprising that the Colts didn’t use a higher pick on the position in the draft, just adding Maine’s Trevor Bates in the 7th round. 2014 6th round pick Jonathan Newsome flashed on 397 snaps as a rookie, but off-the-field issues limited him to 346 nondescript snaps in 2015 and he was let go this off-season, following a marijuana arrest. That leaves Bates as the only young edge player on the roster and he’s a clear #4 outside linebacker at the most.

Cole, Mathis, and Walden played 533, 558, and 796 snaps respectively in 2015 and should be around those snap totals again in 2015. Cole was the best of the bunch, grading out 34th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, but the other two graded out below average. Cole has graded out above average in all 9 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history and his 88.5 career sacks in 11 seasons in the league are 44th most all time, but he’s going into his age 34 season so the end is near for him. He’s likely going into his final season in Indianapolis and possibly his final season in the league.

Mathis has had a great career as well, as his 118 career sacks are 20th all-time and 5th among active players, giving him at least an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus history, but missed all of 2014 with a torn achilles and was not nearly the same in 2015. He’s also a year older than Cole, going into his age 35 season. Like Cole, he’s very possibly in his final season with the Colts and in the league.

Walden is the youngest of the trio and lead the position in snaps played last season, with Mathis and Cole best suited for situational work at this stage of their careers, but he’s also the worst of the trio and no spring chicken himself. He has never once graded out above average in 8 years in the league, since getting drafted by the Packers in the 6th round in 2008. He’s going into his age 31 season and is highly unlikely to be better going forward.

Starting middle linebacker D’Qwell Jackson is also in the over 30 club, as he’s going into his age 33 season. His age has really shown in recent years, as he’s graded out below average in 4 straight seasons, including 2015 season in which he finished 62nd out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 33 season in the league, Jackson simply isn’t a reliable starter anymore. Fellow starting middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman was easily the better of the two last season and was arguably the Colts’ best defensive player, finishing 2nd among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, but he signed with the Bears as a free agent, leaving the Colts with a big hole to fill next to the aging Jackson.

Sio Moore is penciled in as the starter. He played just 69 snaps last season, but looked like a future star as a rookie in 2013, as the 3rd round pick finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. However, he struggled in 2014 and then fell out of favor with a new coaching staff in Oakland, which got him traded to the Colts last off-season. The Colts then moved him inside to middle linebacker and never played him, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and has bounce back potential this season. It’s a weak linebacking corps overall though.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback Vontae Davis is the Colts’ best defensive player, but he had a down year last finishing, falling to 29th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, after finishing in the top-4 in both 2013 and 2014. He had bounce back potential going into 2015, as he’s graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league and is still only going into his age 27 season, but he’s expected to miss the first month or so of the season with an ankle injury, which forced the Colts to bring in veteran free agent Antonio Cromartie in mid-August.

With Davis injured, Antonio Cromartie figures to take over his starting job and play every down at cornerback opposite fellow free agent acquisition Patrick Robinson. Cromartie is not the same player he used to be though, going into his age 32 season, and looked done last season, finishing 84th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s also graded out below average in each of the past 3 seasons, a trend that figures to continue into 2016. There’s a reason he was available so late in the off-season. He’s a huge downgrade from Davis and makes this defense even older and less talented. They are going to have serious problems stopping anyone with Davis injured.

Patrick Robinson, meanwhile, comes over from San DIego on a very reasonable 3-year, 14 million dollar deal. A 2010 1st round pick, Robinson was largely a bust in 5 seasons in New Orleans, largely because of injuries, as he missed 22 games in those 5 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback in 2011, but that was not the norm for him in New Orleans, as he graded out above average just twice in 5 seasons in the league. However, in his one-year in San Diego, he played all 16 games (starting 10 of them) and finished 30th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s a talented player when healthy and a solid pickup at a position of need for the Colts, but he’ll be overmatched as the #1 cornerback to start the season.

Darius Butler remains as the slot cornerback, despite struggling mightily in 2015, grading out 86th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on 576 snaps. He’s graded out below average in 5 of 7 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2009, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s already going into his age 30 season, so I don’t expect him to be any better this season. He saw some action at safety earlier this off-season, so if Cromartie plays well enough in Davis’ absence, the Colts could move Butler to safety mid-season.

Speaking of safety, the Colts did use one high pick on their defense this year, adding Clemson safety TJ Green in the 2nd round. He might not play right away, but should push both Clayton Geathers and Mike Adams for starting roles. Geathers was a 4th round pick in 2015 who struggled on 271 snaps as a rookie, but he is expected to take over for departed free agent Dwight Lowery, who was solid in 2015. Adams, meanwhile, wasn’t bad in 2015 either, but he graded out slightly below average and is going into his age 35 season. Also going into the final year of his deal, this is likely to be Adams’ final season in Indianapolis and possibly in the league, with Green taking over as the starter in 2017, or possibly sooner. Adams is one of 7 projected week 1 starter over-30 on the Colts’ defense, a defense that figures to take a major step back in 2016 as a result of age and injury.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Colts won 8 games even though Andrew Luck missed half of last season, but that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win more games this season with him healthy. Even with Luck injured, the passing game was not the problem for the Colts last season, as backup Matt Hasselbeck played admirably and did a good job managing the game in Luck’s absence. They had serious issues running the ball, issues that won’t improve with Frank Gore going into his age 33 season. They’re also missing top defensive player Vontae Davis for the first month of the season with injury on a defense that figures to take a major step backwards anyway because of age and the loss of top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency. They’ll win some shoot outs, but they’re not a lock to reclaim the AFC South.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Titans have been the worst team in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, in terms of record, going just 5-27 in 2014 and 2015 combined. However, things are definitely looking up for them and they could become a factor in the playoff race once again this season. They won just 3 games last season, but 6 of their losses came by a touchdown or less and 4 of them came by a field goal or less, so they were coming close. They finished 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, which isn’t great, but it’s a little bit better than their record suggests.

Because of their record, they ended up with the #1 overall pick in the draft and were able to get a king’s ransom for it when the Rams decided they needed to have quarterback Jared Goff. Along with the #1 pick, they sent a 4th and 6th rounder to Los Angeles and got picks 15, 43, 45, and 76, along with a 1st and 3rd rounder in 2017. That will allow them to add a lot of young, cheap talent through the draft in 2016 and 2017. This comes after getting the #2 overall pick in 2015 and adding quarterback Marcus Mariota out of Oregon.

Mariota was promising as a rookie, despite the team’s record. Not only could the Titans have won a couple more games had a few plays gone the other way, they also could have won a couple more games had Mariota stayed healthy, as he missed essentially 5 games with injury. In those 5 games, they moved the chains at a mere 58.09% rate (losing all 5), as opposed to 72.78% in their other 11 games, actually above average. Mariota faced an easier slate of games than his backup, but still completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 7.62 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 252 yards and 2 additional touchdowns on 34 carries (7.41 YPC). He could easily be better in his 2nd year in the league and, if he can stay healthy, the Titans could have a pretty solid offense in 2016.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Obviously, it greatly increases Mariota’s chances of staying healthy if the Titans don’t lead the NFL in sacks allowed again, as they did in 2015, when they allowed 54. Some of that was the fault of the quarterbacks holding the ball too long, but the Titans also had major issues in pass protection. The Titans addressed the offensive line in the first round, moving back up to the 8th overall pick (sending the 16th pick, a 3rd round pick, and a 2017 2nd round pick to Cleveland to do so) and taking Michigan State offensive tackle Jack Conklin, who will be immediately plugged in at right tackle.

Even though the Titans allowed a lot of sacks as a whole, they didn’t actually get bad play at left tackle, where 2014 1st round pick Taylor Lewan flourished in his 2nd year in the league. After flashing in 6 starts as a rookie, Lewan started in all 15 games he played in 2015 and finished 12th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 3rd year in the league in 2016, Lewan’s best football could still be yet to come. He and Conklin are a pair of recent first round picks with very bright futures.

Along with right tackle, center and left guard were positions of weakness upfront for the Titans in 2015. The Titans addressed the center position in free agency by signing ex-Texans center Ben Jones. Jones has graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons he’s been in the league, since going in the 4th round in 2012, but is coming off of a career best 2015 season in which he finished 18th at his position. He also has the versatility to play guard, as he made his first 27 career starts at guard, before kicking inside to center in 2015. A collegiate center at the University of Georgia, the Titans plan to keep him there. He’s a capable starter and a noticeable upgrade.

The Titans did not add any left guards in free agency this off-season though, nor did they draft one until the 6th round, when they took Arkansas’s Sebastian Tretola. The Titans’ depth at the guard position got worse when veteran Byron Bell suffered a season ending ankle injury after the draft. Bell has never been a good offensive lineman, but he was capable last season at both right tackle and left guard. He likely would have been the favorite at left guard had he been healthy, so it was a little bit more than a minor loss. In his absence, 2nd year player Quinton Spain will start. Spain started the final 6 games of last season, but that doesn’t mean much, as he was merely the last option on a rotating door of mediocrity. The 2015 undrafted free agent didn’t show much on 383 snaps last season. Despite being a late round pick, Tretola could push him for snaps down the stretch.

Rounding out the offensive line is right guard Chance Warmack, the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Warmack hasn’t lived up to his potential yet, finishing a career high 40th among guards on Pro Football Focus in 2015. He could be better in 2016, still only going into his age 25 season and possessing plenty of upside, but he’s been underwhelming throughout his career thus far. He’s part of an offensive line that’s still very much a work in progress, but they’re young and improving. They also added two new starters this off-season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Titans also added at the running back position this off-season, much needed after last season. At first glance, they weren’t bad on the ground last season, averaging 4.00 yards per carry, 17th in the NFL, but much of that was because of quarterback Marcus Mariota, who averaged 7.41 yards per carry. Outside of him, the Titans averaged just 3.66 yards per carry and  that’s despite the fact that passing down back Dexter McCluster averaged 4.49 yards per carry. If you exclude McCluster, who is no longer even with the team, they averaged just 3.50 yards per carry.

Early down types like Antonio Andrews, David Cobb, and Bishop Sankey averaged 3.64, 2.81, and 4.11 yards per carry respectively on 143, 52, and 47 carries respectively, meaning they really needed to add better runners this off-season. The Titans attempted to do so by trading for veteran running back DeMarco Murray and using a 2nd round pick on Alabama running back Derrick Henry. Murray led the league in rushing in 2014, but that was largely because of the Cowboys’ dominant offensive line and his high usage. He finished 5th among running backs in 2014, which is still good, but he fell to 67th out of 69 eligible in 2015 in his first and only year in Philadelphia, after signing a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season.

While many expected a drop off for Murray, just how much he dropped off is shocking. Even though 2014 was easily the best season of his career, he wasn’t bad in the 3 years prior to 2014, after going in the 3rd round in 2011. From 2011-2013, he rushed for 2681 yards and 15 touchdowns on 542 carries (4.95 YPC) and added 114 catches for another 784 yards and 1 touchdown through the air. He’s unlikely to be that good this season because he doesn’t have Dallas’ offensive line blocking for him anymore, but he’s an obvious bounce back candidate in his new home in Tennessee.

Credit the Eagles for getting anything for him and not having to pay him 7 million guaranteed in 2016, but also credit the Titans for getting him for next to nothing and convincing him to sign a much discounted deal that will only pay him 25.5 million over the next 4 years, rather than 32.9 million, as he was originally scheduled to make (the remaining 7.4 million can be earned back through incentives). The upside for Murray is he’ll be guaranteed 12 million over the next 2 seasons, so it’s an increase in guaranteed money for him.

Even after adding Murray, the Titans still used a 2nd round pick on Derrick Henry, as I mentioned before, a luxury they could afford after trading away the #1 pick for a king’s ransom. Considering how bad Murray looked last season and the fact that he’s missed 12 games in 5 years in the league with injury, it’s not a bad idea to have an insurance policy like Henry. How much work Henry sees will be dependant on how Murray runs the ball this season and whether or not he’s healthy, but those two should split the early down work. If Murray struggles, it’s definitely not out of the question that Henry surpasses him as the lead back by season’s end. It’s a much improved group of backs.

Grade: B-

Wide Receiver

The Titans also added at wide receiver this off-season, signing ex-Dolphin Rishard Matthews to a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal. Matthews, a 7th round pick in 2012, made just 6 career starts in his first 3 years in the league, but won the starting job in 2015 with the Dolphins, ahead of higher profile players like Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Greg Jennings. Matthews started all 11 games he played in 2015 (he missed the final 5 games of the season with broken ribs) and caught 43 passes for 662 yards and 4 touchdowns. That extrapolates to 63 catches for 962 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, on a Miami offense that was otherwise pretty bad. As a result, he finished 35th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He’s still a one year wonder, but the Titans didn’t pay him much, so he has a real chance to be a value signing. He’s the only Titan wide receiver who is locked into a role and could lead the position in targets.

Kendall Wright has plenty of starting experience, making 37 starts in 55 career games in 4 years in the league, since going in the first round in 2012, but he’s not locked into a starting job. Wright seemingly had a breakout year in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, catching 94 passes for 1079 yards and 2 touchdowns and finishing 18th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but he’s caught just 93 passes for 1123 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2 seasons since. He’s graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, with the exception coming in 2013. He also missed 6 games with injury last season. If he can stay healthy, he has some bounce back potential, but that’s far from a guarantee. He’s likely guaranteed to at least be the slot receiver, but he has a shot to keep a starting job.

Second year player Dorial Green-Beckham looked like a starter going into the off-season, after flashing on 580 snaps as a rookie, but struggled this off-season, which got him benched and ultimately shipped to the Eagles for a reserve offensive lineman, a very strange move from Tennessee’s perspective. Tajae Sharpe, who had a strong off-season, is expected to be one of the Titans’ top-3 wide receivers with Green-Beckham gone, playing outside opposite Matthews in 3-wide receiver sets. Despite looking good thus far, he’s a mere 5th round rookie, so it’s hard to have high expectations for him.

Tight end Delanie Walker was easily the Titans’ best pass catcher in 2015, catching 94 passes (most among tight ends) for 1088 yards (3rd most among tight ends) and 6 touchdowns. It helped that he received 10 more targets than any other tight end in the league, something that’s unlikely to continue with improved wide receivers around him in 2016, but the all-around talented 6-2 248 pound tight end finished 2nd among tight ends overall on Pro Football Focus in 2015, after coming in 7th in 2014.

He’s been a late bloomer for the Titans, after spending most of his career as a #2 tight end in San Francisco. The past 2 seasons are the first two seasons in his career in which he’s graded out above average as a pass catcher since 2008, when he played just 143 snaps. He’s caught 157 passes for 1978 yards and 10 touchdowns over that two year span. He’ll see fewer targets and his age is becoming a concern going into his age 32 season, but with Mariota healthy, he could post solid numbers again on an offense that’s overall looking up. He should also get more red zone opportunities. Veteran #2 tight end Anthony Fasano remains as the #2 tight end. He’s a solid blocker, but little else, as he heads into his age 32 season. Fortunately, he won’t have to see a ton of action. Like the rest of this offense, the Titans’ receiving corps is looking up.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Titans also added to their defensive line this off-season, drafting Penn State defensive tackle Austin Johnson in the 2nd round. The big 6-4 314 pounder could start at nose tackle immediately. He just needs to beat out incumbent Al Woods, a smaller player at 6-4 307 who struggled on 356 snaps last season and who has graded out below average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the league, since getting drafted in the 4th round in 2010. The Titans gave him a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar contract this off-season to keep him in Tennessee, ahead of his age 29 season, but Johnson is the future and likely the present at the position, while Woods will probably slot in as a reserve at all 3 spots on Tennessee’s 3-man defensive line.

Whichever player wins the job will play in base packages in between incumbent starting defensive ends DaQuan Jones and Jurrell Casey. Jones, a 4th round pick in 2014, had a breakout 2015 season in his first year as a starter. Jones played just 143 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but played 679 snaps in 16 starts in 2015 and finished 30th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, well above average. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and his best football is likely still to come.

Casey is far more proven and much better, as he’s been quietly dominant on some bad Titan teams in recent years. Casey has played both 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end over the past 4 years and has finished in the top-8 at his position in all 4 years. Only going into his age 27 season and his 6th year in the league, Casey is in the prime of his career. The Titans made a wise decision locking him up for 36 million over 4 years two off-seasons ago, considering a comparable player like Malik Jackson got 90 million over 6 years from division rival Jacksonville this off-season.

Casey and Jones make a strong bookend in base packages, while top reserve Karl Klug is a solid player as well, grading out above average as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. The 6-3 278 pounder played 331 snaps as primarily a sub package rusher in 2015 and should have a similar role this season (his career high is 435 snaps in a season). He complements Jones well as the 6-4 322 pound Jones is best against the run and plays primarily in base packages; 376 of his 679 snaps in 2015 were on run plays. The Titans were smart to keep Klug on a 2-year, 3.8 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent. It’s an underrated defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Titans also have a deep bunch at outside linebacker, especially after using a 2nd round pick on Clemson’s Kevin Dodd. They had major depth issues at the position last season, which became a big problem when starter Derrick Morgan missed the final 6 games of the season with injury. Morgan had a down year in general too, finishing just 49th out of 110 eligible edge defenders, above average, but not what we’re used to from him. He finished 5th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012, 11th in 2013, and 8th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014. Still only going into his age 27 season, he has a good chance to bounce back if he can stay healthy this year.

Brian Orakpo remains as the starter opposite him. He was much better than Morgan last season, finishing 25th among edge defenders. Most importantly, he was healthier than Morgan, playing all 16 games. That’s huge for Orakpo, considering injuries had limited him to a combined 24 games in the previous 3 seasons. As a result of his injury history, the Titans were able to get him for 32 million over 4 years in free agency last off-season, well worth it if he stays healthy. He was even better in 2011 and 2013 than he was last season, finishing 7th and 4th respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers in those two seasons. Prior to 2015, those were his last 2 healthy seasons. His injury history is still a concern, especially as he heads into his age 30 season, but he should still be a major asset for this team as long as he can stay on the field.

Inside, Avery Williamson remains one of the two starters. A steal of a 5th round pick, Williamson has made 27 starts in 2 years in the league. He was much better as a rookie than in his 2nd year in the league, ranking 17th among middle linebackers as a rookie in 2014, but falling all the way to 59th among 97 eligible linebackers in 2015. Even in a disappointing 2015 season, he still wasn’t terrible and a bounce back year is certainly a possibility. He’s locked in as a starter regardless.

At the other middle linebacker spot, veteran holdover Wesley Woodyard will compete with veteran free agent acquisition Sean Spence. Woodyard, an experienced veteran with 68 career starts, split snaps with free agent departure Zach Brown in 2015, but was fantastic in limited action, finishing 9th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 499 snaps. Purely playing in a base package role, Woodyard excelled against the run and wasn’t terrible in coverage either. Woodyard should at least keep the base package job and could be an every down player in 2016, as he’s been before in his career.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Woodyard has graded out below average in 3 of the last 5 seasons though, since he became a starter, so expectations shouldn’t be too high for him. Spence isn’t very good either, but the Titans paid him 2.5 million on a 1-year deal, which isn’t chump change. He previously played under ex-Steelers/now-Titans defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh. Spence played 510 snaps for LeBeau’s Steeler defense in 2014, but graded out 41st out of 60 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. He only saw 270 snaps in 2015 and didn’t play well on those snaps either. He shouldn’t be anything more than a backup. Woodyard is a superior player. He’s also arguably the worst starter in a linebacking corps that looks strong going into 2016, especially with Morgan healthy and Dodd coming in.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The problem area on defense in 2015 for the Titans was the secondary, as the Titans finished 24th in rate of moving the chains allowed despite pretty decent front 7 play. Injuries to starting cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox left the Titans incredibly thin at cornerback for most of the season. McCourty missed 12 games, while Cox missed 3 games. They played in the same game just twice all season and, even when McCourty played, he was not healthy, as groin problems hampered him all season.

Prior to 2014, McCourty was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. From 2010-2013, he finished 20th, 8th, 6th, and 11th respectively among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. A lot of that had to do with his strong play against the run, but he still graded out 15th, 32nd, 23rd, and 17th respectively in those 4 seasons in coverage grade (all above average) and the fact that he was arguably the best cornerback in the NFL against the run in those 4 seasons was just a cherry on top. However, in 2014, he graded out below average for the first time since his rookie year in 2009 and then he had last season’s miserable year. There’s still bounce back potential with him if he can stay healthy in 2015, but, going into his age 29 season, two years removed from his last good season, it’s also very possible his best days are now behind him.

Cox was a lot better than McCourty in 2015 when he was healthy, grading out just slightly below average. He’s been a solid cornerback whenever he’s been on the field throughout his career, including a rookie year in which he graded out above average in 2010 and a strong 2014 season in which he finished 35th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Off-the-field issues derailed his career early, as he played just 249 snaps from 2011-2013, but he’s stayed out of trouble for a few years and has made the most of his second chance on the field. He’s a capable starter at the very least.

With all their injuries, Coty Sensabaugh actually led the team in snaps played by a cornerback with 1005. He was signed by the Rams this off-season, but he really didn’t play well last season, so he won’t be a huge loss. However, the player the Titans signed to replace him, Brice McCain, is not really any better. McCain finished 70th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks in 2015 and has graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2009. Already going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to be any better this season. It was weird that the Titans did not address the cornerback position prior to the 5th round, when they drafted Southern Utah’s Leshaun Sims. At one point, prior to the Rams trading up to 1, it looked like the Titans might take Florida State cornerback Jalen Ramsey #1 overall.

The Titans also had a whole at safety to address in the draft and they did so fairly early, taking Middle Tennessee State’s Kevin Byard in the 3rd round. Byard is unlikely to begin the season as the starter, but could see playing time down the stretch. Veteran Rashad Johnson is expected to start, after signing a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal this off-season. Johnson has made 51 career starts in 7 years in the league, but was primarily a reserve for most of his career, as 30 of those starts have come in the last 2 seasons. He’s struggled in both seasons, finishing 77th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2014 and 50th out of 89 eligible in 2015. He’d be best off back in a reserve role and he’s unlikely to improve going into his age 30 season.

At the other safety spot, Da’Norris Searcy was easily the Titans’ best defensive back last season, in the first year of a 4-year, 23.75 million dollar deal. It was a risky deal at the time because Searcy had never played more than 753 snaps in a season and had just 23 career starts. However, Searcy was Pro Football Focus 18th ranked safety on 666 snaps in 2014 and jumped to 12th in 2015 on a career high 886 snaps. Only going into his age 28 season, the 2011 4th round pick has put together back-to-back strong seasons and looks poised for a 3rd. He headlines a secondary that could be better in 2016 if it can stay healthier.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Titans have won just 5 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons, but they’re closer than you’d think. Injuries kept them down on both sides of the ball last season, including 5 games missed by quarterback Marcus Mariota, but they still came close in a lot of their losses (4 losses by a field goal or less, 6 losses by a touchdown or less). If Mariota can stay healthy and take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league, it’ll be a big boost for this team. They’ve also done a good job improving the talent around Mariota, adding a couple solid free agents and adding a great return for the #1 pick in the draft, which allowed them to add a lot of young talent this year and gives them a stockpile of picks for next year. A young team with 23 million in cap space unused going into the season, the Titans might be a year away from being a real threat, but figure to be in the mix to win the wide open AFC South for at least most of the season.

Prediction: 8-8 1st in AFC South

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Kansas City Chiefs 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

There was a time last season when the Chiefs won 11 straight games, the final 10 games of the regular season and a victory over the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. However, that came after a 1-5 start seemed to end their season. The Chiefs rallied to make the playoffs but ultimately lost in the divisional round to the New England Patriots. What changed after the first 6 weeks for the Chiefs? Well, the biggest change is simply the schedule. In those first 6 games, the Chiefs took on 5 eventual playoff teams, going 1-4 in those 5 games. The rest of the way they faced just 3 other playoff teams, only one more in the regular season, going 2-1 in those 3 games.

Overall, they were 3-5 against playoff teams last season, but two of those wins came against a Houston team that was arguably the worst team in the NFL to make the playoffs and the other came against a Denver team that was playing with a very hobbled Peyton Manning at quarterback. In their other 10 games, they went 9-1, only losing by 1 to the Bears, the only sub .500 team to beat them last season. Simply put, this was a slightly above average team that beat everyone they were better than and lost to everyone who was better than them. That didn’t really change all season; the only things that did was their schedule and their record.

Kansas City’s defense was their noticeably better unit, as they finished 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but just 14th in rate of moving the chains. Their offense wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good either and it was their defense that often carried them. This average offense unsurprisingly was led by one of the most average quarterbacks in the NFL, Alex Smith. Smith, a late bloomer as the #1 overall pick in 2005, had a breakout year in 2011 in Jim Harbaugh’s first year with the 49ers, finishing 8th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season. However, he’s largely been a very average quarterback since, grading out 19th, 20th, 16th, and 18th among quarterbacks from 2012-2015 respectively.

Smith has definitely shed the system quarterback label, having success in both Jim Harbaugh’s and Andy Reid’s offenses. Part of that is the fact that he’s had two strong offensive minds as his head coaches and has been allowed to play in systems that best fit his skill set, but Smith deserves a lot of the credit too. Going into his age 32 season, he is who he is at this point, so he’s never going to be someone that can carry a team, but you can win with him if you surround him with enough talent. Smith’s numbers have improved in every season he’s been in Kansas City, as he completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions last season, but that’s largely a result of improved talent around him.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Smith now has a pair of big-time receiving options to throw to. That wasn’t the case in his first year in Kansas City, when running back Jamaal Charles led the team with 693 receiving yards and a washed up Dwayne Bowe was their best wide receiver. Those days are gone now. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was acquired on a 5-year, 55 million dollar contract last off-season, following a 2014 season in which no Kansas City wide receiver scored a touchdown, while tight end Travis Kelce is homegrown, drafted in the 3rd round in 2013. The Chiefs kept Kelce on a huge extension this off-season, worth 46 million over 5 years. Both are expensive, but they’re also both so valuable to this team.

Maclin led the way with 1088 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He wasn’t the deep threat he was in 2014 with the Eagles, when he averaged 15.5 yards per catch in Chip Kelly’s offense, but that was always going to change, as the Chiefs simply are not an offense that pushes the ball downfield often; that’s not Smith’s strength as a passer. He averaged just 12.5 yards per catch, but caught a career high 87 passes and finished 25th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Maclin’s career had a disappointing start, as he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 4 years in the league from 2009-2012 and then missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he’s bounced back very well from that torn ACL, playing the best football of his career. He’s missed just 1 game with injury since and has graded out 14th and 25th respectively among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and 2015.

Kelce’s career also got off to a rough start, as he missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury. That knee injury, which required microfracture surgery, actually limited him into 2014. Though he led the Chiefs in receiving that year, catching 67 passes for 862 yards and 5 touchdowns, he did so on just 688 snaps, as the Chiefs had him on a snap count all season. He finished the 2014 season 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run by a tight end, only behind Rob Gronkowski, and, showing strong run blocking as well, finished as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked tight end.

In 2015, he ditched the snap count. He wasn’t as good on a per snap basis in 2015 as he was in 2014, as he barely surpassed his 2014 receiving numbers, catching 72 passes for 872 yards and 5 touchdowns, despite playing significantly more snaps than he did in 2014 (923). His run blocking also was not nearly as good as it was in 2014 and, overall, he finished just 21st among tight ends on Pro Football Focus (12th in pure pass catching grade). Still, he’s one of the better tight ends in the NFL and should have somewhat of a bounce back year this season. It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t missed a game in 2 years, so his early career knee problems seem well behind him. The Chiefs were wise to lock him up long-term and he has an outside shot at 1000+ yards in 2016.

The issue is that the Chiefs are still really thin in the receiving corps after Maclin and Kelce. No other Chiefs receiver had more than 451 yards last season. Albert Wilson, the #2 receiver, had 35 catches for 451 yards and 2 touchdowns and their next leading receiver was running back Charcandrick West, who caught 20 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown. Wilson struggled as the #2 receiver, finishing 75th out of 121 eligible wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but #3 and #4 receivers Jason Avant and Chris Conley were even worse, finishing 81st and 87th respectively on 345 and 369 snaps respectively.

Wilson flashed on 223 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2014, but proved to be overstretched as a starting receiver last season. The 5-9 200 pounder does his best work on the slot and the Chiefs would probably prefer him as the 3rd receiver, but they might not have much of a choice. They drafted Conley in the 3rd round last year, with the intention of him becoming a starting receiver, but he struggled in limited action as a rookie, so his starting days could be at least another year off. Still, he’s the heavy favorite for the #3 receiver job, as the Chiefs really lack depth at the wide receiver position. Raw 5th round rookie Tyreke Hill is probably the #4 receiver going into week 1.

The Chiefs also have depth problems at tight end, where Demetrius Harris struggled in his first since as the #2 tight end, catching just 7 passes and grading out 60th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 339 snaps. Prior to last season, Harris, a 2013 undrafted free agent, had played just 70 career snaps, so the odds of him becoming significantly better in his 2nd year in the role are slim. The Chiefs’ receiving corps is a lot better than it was two years ago thanks to Kelce and Maclin, but plenty of depth issues remain.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Arguably the most surprising part of the Chiefs’ turnaround last season is they did it despite losing Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL week 5. Obviously their schedule got easier from that point on, but the fact remains that the Chiefs were able to run the ball effectively last season even without Jamaal Charles, finishing the year 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry with 4.69. Charles’ average, for comparison, was 5.13. Charles ran better, faced tougher competition in his 5 games, and added 21 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown in his 5 games, but last season proved that the Chiefs have tremendous depth at the running back position.

Because of that and the fact that Charles is going into his age 30 season, coming off of the 2nd torn ACL of his career, there was some talk that the Chiefs would try to trade Charles this off-season. His 2016 salary (6 million) is pretty reasonable, so they ultimately decided to keep the running back whose 5.47 career yards per carry average is still the best all-time by a running back in the modern era. Charles will go back into the starting lineup, but should see much more frequent breaks, especially early in the season, given his age, injury history, and the fact that the Chiefs know they can trust their other running backs in critical situations too. Charles had 320 touches in 2012, 329 touches in 2013, and was on a 294 touch pace last season (he dealt with lingering injuries in 2014 that held him to 246 touches). Those 300+ touch seasons are likely a thing of the past for him.

However, he still could be an effective weapon for the Chiefs on around 250 touches (200 carries and 50 receptions). He also still should play the vast majority of the passing down snaps, as he’s easily their 3rd best receiver behind Maclin and Kelce, catching 131 passes in 35 games in 3 years since Andy Reid came to town; that might have been where he was most missed last season. Excluding an injury shortened 2011 season in which he did not play enough snaps to qualify, Charles has graded out 4th, 1st, 16th, 2nd, and 13th on Pro Football Focus among running backs in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively and then finished last season 17th on 267 snaps before the injury. There are serious questions about his effectiveness going forward given his age and injury history, but Charles at 80%-90% is still a lot better than most backs.

Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware will compete for the backup job behind Charles. West had more carries, but turned those 160 carries into just 634 yards (3.96 YPC) and 4 touchdowns. Ware, meanwhile, came on down the stretch and rushed for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns on 72 carries (5.60 YPC). Ware also finished higher on Pro Football Focus, grading out 21st while West finished 41st. The two running backs combined for just 3 career carries prior to last season, so they’re last season is really all we have to evaluate them on.

Ware was easily the better player and should be considered the heavy favorite to backup on Charles, especially on early downs as Ware does struggle as a pass catcher. West should also have a role, but it’ll be a smaller one. Even though they finished last season 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry, they could be even better on the ground this season with Charles back, though it’s worth noting Ware and West are both one-year wonders. They still have arguably the league’s best group of running backs though.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Part of the reason why the Chiefs weren’t able to really address their receiving corps this off-season is they had a lot of pending free agents, a lot of needs to fill, and lost their 3rd round pick for having illegal communication with Jeremy Maclin when he was an Eagle, before he signed with the Chiefs. The Chiefs didn’t really lose much at any of the offensive skill positions, but they did have some losses on the offensive line and they had 5 defensive starters set to hit free agency (which I’ll get into later).

The three players the Chiefs lost on the offensive line this season are offensive tackle Donald Stephenson (signed with the Broncos), guard Jeff Allen (signed with the Texans), and guard Ben Grubbs (still unsigned, but expected to retire ahead of his age 32 season, after suffering a significant neck injury down the stretch last season). Those 3 played 555, 429, and 463 snaps respectively last season. The Stephenson loss doesn’t really hurt, as he really struggled last season, but Grubbs and Allen were both starting caliber players when in the lineup. Allen was actually Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked guard last season, landing him a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal from the Texans.

Fortunately, the Chiefs add a free agent offensive lineman who is better than any of those three, signing Mitchell Schwartz to a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal. He was the only real external free agent signing the Chiefs made, but he’ll be very valuable for them. He’s only ever played right tackle, but he’s made all 64 starts in 4 years in the league, since getting drafted in the 2nd round in the Browns in 2012, and has graded out 19th, 30th, 11th, and 6th respectively among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively. Arguably the best right tackle in the NFL, Schwartz is immediately the Chiefs’ best offensive lineman.

Eric Fisher remains as the left tackle. Fisher was the #1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, but looked like a massive bust through his first 2 seasons in the league, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013 at right tackle and then 72nd out of 84 eligible in 2014 at left tackle. Fisher was better in 2015, though still not the player the Chiefs were expecting he’d be by now when they took him first overall. He graded out slightly above average and finished 36th among offensive tackles.

Given that they gave him a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension with 2 years left on his rookie deal this off-season, the Chiefs will obviously be hoping he takes another leap forward in 2016, but I’m skeptical. They should be happy if he plays competently again, given how bad he was to start his career. That contract figures to be an overpay, as he’s now the 3rd highest paid offensive tackle in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. With 2 years left on his rookie deal, there was no urgency for the move and the Chiefs are paying for something he’s never proven.

Along with Fisher, the Chiefs have another capable young starting offensive lineman at center, where 2015 2nd round pick Mitch Morse started 15 games as a rookie last season. The University of Missouri product transitioned very smoothly from his collegiate position of offensive tackle inside to center, grading out above average and finishing the season 15th among centers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 2nd year in the league in 2016, he could be even better and he has a promising future.

The big issue upfront for the Chiefs is guard, where they are really thin after losing Allen and Grubbs. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif remains as the starter at right guard, where he made 13 starts last season, but he didn’t play well, grading out 62nd among 81 eligible guards. The Chiefs’ coaching staff is really high on him, but he’s yet to show it in game action, not playing a snap as a 6th round rookie in 2014, and then struggled in his first year as a starter in 2015. With no other real option at the position, LDT is locked in here.

Left guard is the only starting job up for grabs on the Chiefs offensive line, as Zach Fulton, who struggled on 406 snaps last season, will compete with 4th round rookie Parker Ehinger for the starting job. Fulton is the favorite, but the fact that Ehinger has a chance to win the job as a 4th round rookie tells you a lot about Fulton and his abilities. The 2014 6th round pick has made 22 starts in 2 years in the league, though largely out of desperation, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2014 and, though he was better in 2015, it wasn’t by much, as he still graded out below average overall. Whoever wins this starting job, left guard should be a position of weakness. Depth on the offensive line is also a big concern.

Adding Schwartz does help in a big way and the Chiefs should have Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together next season, something they have never really had for an extended period of time. Those four players should all be in my top-200 players for 2016 (which will be released at the end of the off-season) and, despite major holes in the receiving corps and at guard, the talent is there for this offense to be better in 2016, even if they’re still far from dominant on that side of the ball.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs had 5 defensive starters who were free agents this off-season. They didn’t really add any free agents to their defense, but the Chiefs did a good job keeping their talent, re-signing 4 of those 5 players, including defensive lineman Jaye Howard, who they kept on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. That’s a good value for him. The 6-3 301 pounder can play anywhere on the Chiefs’ 3-man defensive line, including nose tackle. After not playing much in his first 2 seasons in the league, Howard a 2012 4th round pick by the Seahawks, has played 449 and 752 snaps in 2014 and 2015 respectively, grading out above average in both seasons, including 24th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. A blossoming young defensive lineman, I expected him to be a much hotter commodity on the open market.

Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey also remain as the other two starters on this defensive line. Despite having off-season back surgery, Poe missed just 1 game with injury last season (just his 2nd missed game in 4 years in the NFL) and led the Chiefs defensive line in snaps for the 4th straight year, since the Chiefs drafted him 11th overall in 2012. He led the defensive line with 757 in 2012, 1004 in 2013, 966 in 2014, and then 759 last season. The 6-3 347 pounder isn’t a dominant defensive lineman, but his versatility, durability, and stamina are very uncommon for a player of his size. He’s also a valuable player who the Chiefs don’t want take off the field very often, grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, finishing 11th among defensive tackles in 2013, 39th among defensive tackles in 2014, and then 32nd among interior defenders last season.

Bailey was the worst of the 3 starters, but he certainly wasn’t bad, finishing 51st among interior defenders and grading out above average. Bailey flashed as a reserve early in his career, grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons from 2011-2013, after going in the 3rd round in 2011, but struggled in his first season as a starter in 2014, grading out 33rd out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. Bailey was improved in his 2nd year as a starter though and goes into 2016 as a capable starting defensive end.

While the Chiefs re-signed Howard, they did lose Mike DeVito. DeVito wasn’t one of those aforementioned 5 starters, but he was a valuable reserve who graded out above average on 293 snaps last season. He retired this off-season, ahead of his age 32 season. Still, Howard was obviously more important to keep and the Chiefs used a 2nd round by on Chris Jones out of Mississippi State to replace DeVito. He’ll provide depth across the defensive line as a rookie at 6-6 310 and could be a long-term replacement for Poe, if the Chiefs are unable to re-sign him long-term. Poe will be a free agent next off-season. Jones was a borderline first round prospect in a loaded defensive tackle class so it was a good pick by the Chiefs. For now, Poe is still here on a defensive line that has 3 talented starters and a promising rookie reserve.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs only lost one defensive starter through free agency. However, they did suffer a potentially huge loss from an injury, as outside linebacker Justin Houston’s status for the 2016 season is very much up in the air after a partially torn ACL suffered this off-season. This injury was suffered in February and he was given a 6-12 month timeframe, which means he could be back just in time for week 1, or miss the entire season; it’s really up in the air, which is very bad news for the Chiefs.

When healthy, Houston is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. A 2011 3rd round pick, Houston graded out 13th, 4th, 1st, 1st among 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus from 2011-2014 respectively and then finished last season 2nd at the position. Injuries are the only thing that’s ever slowed him down, as he’s missed 10 games with injury over the past 3 season and figures to miss at least a few more this season. His status will definitely be one to monitor, but the smart money is probably on him going on the PUP list and missing at least the first 6 weeks of the season.

Dee Ford is the obvious replacement for Houston, as he started the final 5 games of the season in Houston’s absence last season, when Houston was out with a knee injury. Houston returned for the playoffs, but was nowhere near 100% and then needed that surgery this off-season, so it’ll be back to Ford. Ford was drafted in the first round in 2014, a surprising pick because the Chiefs didn’t have an immediate need for an edge rusher, but it made some sense with Tamba Hali getting up there in age. The Chiefs re-signed Hali this off-season because he’s still going strong and because of Houston’s health, but Ford should still get an opportunity to start games in his 3rd year in the league. Thus far, his career has been disappointing, as he played just 122 snaps as a rookie and then finished last season 104th among 110 eligible edge defenders on 480 snaps.

As I mentioned, the Chiefs brought back Tamba Hali (one of those aforementioned 5 starters) this off-season. He’ll start opposite Ford until Houston returns and will need to continue playing at a high level. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season since switching to 3-4 outside linebacker in 2009, including 13th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014 and 4th among 3-4 outside linebackers last season, but is heading into his age 33 season, so he’s far from a guarantee to continue playing at a high level. With Hali aging and Houston injured, the Chiefs will need a breakout year from Ford, but they are unlikely to get it, as Ford hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a #3 outside linebacker thus far in his career.

Along with Tamba Hali, the Chiefs also re-signed middle linebacker Derrick Johnson this off-season. Like Hali, Johnson is an aging player who is still playing at a high level. Despite missing all of 2014 with a torn achilles, Johnson still played at a high level in 2015, playing every down and finishing 3rd among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. That’s been par for the course for him whenever he’s been healthy, as he was a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2013. Aside from 2014’s torn achilles, Johnson has missed just 1 game with injury over the past 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 34 season, so, like with Hali, the end could be near, but the Chiefs were smart to lock him up on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal.

Josh Mauga was the other starting middle linebacker last season and played well against the run, but he’s out for the season with an injury, which pushes 2nd year player Ramik Wilson into the starting lineup. Wilson struggled on 128 snaps as a 4th rookie and doesn’t seem ready for a starting job, but the Chiefs frequently play a 3rd safety down around the line of scrimmage as a essentially 2nd linebacker in sub packages, so Wilson will only see about half the snaps as purely a two-down base package player. It’s still a strong linebacker group, but one whose performance relies heavily on Justin Houston being healthy and aging linebackers Hali and Johnson keeping up a high level of performance.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned the Chiefs frequently use 3 safeties (along with 3 cornerbacks) in sub packages against 3-wide receiver sets. In this scenario, it was frequently Husain Abdullah, the 3rd safety, playing closer to the line of scrimmage as a linebacker. However, Abdullah retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 31 season. Like DeVito, the Chiefs will miss Abdullah in certain situations. Abdullah was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked safety on 434 snaps last season. 2014 undrafted free agent Daniel Sorenson is expected to replace him. The 6-2 207 pounder as adequate size, but is completely unproven and struggled on 240 snaps last season.

Eric Berry and Ron Parker remain as the top-2 safeties, after both made all 16 starts last season. Berry was a free agent this off-season, but the Chiefs kept him on the franchise tag. It’s a borderline miracle that Berry made all 16 starts last season, after his 2014 season was cut short by a cancer diagnosis in November of 2014. Berry was healthy and ready for training camp by July of 2015 and had arguably the best season of his career last season, finishing 6th among safeties on Pro Football Focus and winning the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. He was well worth the franchise tag, though it’s concerning that he did not report until late August. We’ll see how his durability is early in the season. He’s not a one year wonder, as he finished 3rd among safeties in 2013, but he’s been pretty inconsistent in his career.

Parker, meanwhile, also had the best season of his career, after struggling in the first season of significant action in his career in 2014. Parker actually graded out above average in 2015 (40th overall among safeties) and should continue to be a capable starting defensive back in 2016. He played both safety and cornerback last season, though it’s unclear if he will continue doing that next season, as the Chiefs also lost #4 safety Tyvon Branch to free agency this off-season. Branch is a capable situational player who played 428 snaps last season.

Losing Abdullah, Branch, and DeVito this off-season, along with Houston’s injury really hurts this defense. On top of that, the Chiefs lost starting cornerback Sean Smith to the Raiders, easily their biggest off-season loss, as he’s been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL over the past two seasons. For that reason, Parker may continue playing slot cornerback in sub packages, with a 4th safety like Jamell Fleming coming on the field. Fleming is an underwhelming option though, as he’s never played well throughout his entire career, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 by the Cardinals; he struggled mightily on 157 snaps last season and is no lock to even make the final roster.

Most likely, Parker will be a full-time safety in 2016 and the Chiefs well need to find capable cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is locked into one starting spot, after grading out slightly above average in 16 starts as a rookie. He tied for the league lead with 8 interceptions last season and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year, but that was largely because he got thrown on so often opposite Smith. He also gave up his fair share of big plays, which the interception number doesn’t show. Still, it was a strong rookie year and, anyway you look at it, he has a bright future and has a good chance to be better in 2016.

Everything else after that is completely up for grabs. Phillip Gaines, Steven Nelson, Kei’Varae Russell, Kenneth Acker, and Eric Murray will compete for playing time and roster spots. Gaines is probably the favorite for the starting job, as he made 3 starts in 3 games last season, before going down for the year with a torn ACL. He’s certainly not locked into the starting job though, as the 2014 3rd round pick is coming off of a major injury and has only played 545 snaps in 2 years in the NFL.

Acker also has a little bit of experience, making 13 starts in 2015 with the 49ers in the first significant action of his career, but finished 70th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks, which got him traded to the Chiefs for a late round pick in mid-August. He’s not a lock for the final roster. Gaines and Acker have far more experience than the other 3 though, as Nelson played just 53 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, while Russell and Murray are both rookies, drafted in the 3rd and 4th round respectively. It’s a position of serious concern for the Chiefs and a much thinner secondary overall than they’re used to.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chiefs offense could be a little better this season, with Jamaal Charles coming back healthy and Mitchell Schwartz coming in, but they still have major issues at guard and at wide receiver. On the other side of the ball, a once solid defense lost a good amount of talent this off-season, including possibly Justin Houston for the season. One of the best defensive players in the league when healthy, that would be an obvious loss for this team. Cornerback Sean Smith is another obvious loss and leaves them very thin at that position as well. They’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot again in the wide open AFC, but may end up falling short.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in AFC West

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Denver Broncos 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Quarterbacks

Aside from the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, I can’t think of a single team in recent memory that won the Super Bowl despite having a passing game as bad as the Broncos’ was in 2015. It’s arguable that the 2015 Broncos’ passing game was worse than the 2000 Ravens’ because of all the rule changes that have happened in the past 15 years to open up the passing game. As a result, the Broncos finished the regular season 30th in rate of moving the chains. Things did not get better in the playoffs; even in their Super Bowl victory they had more 3rd down failures (13) than first downs (11) and still managed to win by two touchdowns.

Obviously, their defense was the one carrying this team, finishing the season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, but even their dominant defense wasn’t enough to carry them to 12 wins and a Super Bowl victory without some luck, as they finished the season 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. Just 4 of the Broncos’ wins all season (including playoffs) came by more than a touchdown (11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less overall). Simply put, the Broncos’ passing offense is going to have to be a whole lot better in 2016 if the Broncos are going to win 12 games again, and that’s assuming the defense is as good as it was last season (more on that later).

Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler both saw action for the Broncos last season and neither was any good. Manning’s struggles were much more publicized and his numbers were terrible (59.8% completion, 6.80 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions), but it’s not like the offense was significantly better when Osweiler was under center. They moved the chains at a 68.66% rate in the 8 regular season games in which Manning started and finished, a 67.49% rate in the 6 regular season games in which Osweiler started and finished, a 64.71% rate in the 2 regular season games in which both Manning and Osweiler played, and a 55.42% rate in their 3 playoff games, started by Manning.

Manning retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 40 season, while Osweiler left to take a lucrative 4-year, 72 million dollar deal in Houston, but neither one of them was any good last season. There’s a reason why the Broncos went back to Manning for the playoffs, as much as he struggled early in the year. Neither one of them effectively led this offense, but with Manning they were at least getting a veteran leader and a guy who is basically an offensive coordinator on the field. The Broncos were smart not to outbid the Texans for Osweiler.

That being said, the Broncos’ options at quarterback for 2016 are not much better. The Broncos traded for veteran Mark Sanchez earlier this off-season, but he struggled this pre-season and wound up not even making the team, owed a non-guaranteed 4.5 million. Second year quarterback Trevor Siemian wasn’t much better this pre-season, but he will become the year as the starter, even though he has never thrown a pass in the NFL and went in the 7th round in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Broncos used a 1st round pick on Memphis’ Paxton Lynch in this past draft, but he’s apparently still not ready. Regarded as raw coming out, the Broncos will need him to be ready sooner rather than later, as Siemian might be the least qualified starting quarterback in the league.

Grade: D

Offensive Line

The quarterbacks weren’t the only issue last season for the Broncos’ offense, as they had major issues on the offensive line as well. Ryan Clady and Tyler Sambrailo were supposed to start at left tackle and right tackle respectively last season, but Clady tore his ACL before the season even started and missed the whole year. Sambrailo was then pushed to left tackle, where he was very overmatched as a 2nd round rookie, before going down with an injury of his own and missing the final 13 games of the season. As a result, Michael Schofield and Ryan Harris spent most of the season as the starters and both really struggled, grading out 66th and 53rd respectively out of 77 eligible offensive tackles.

The Broncos traded Clady to the Jets this off-season, rather than giving him a non-guaranteed 9.5 million dollar salary, and then signed ex-Seahawk Russell Okung to replace him. The problem is Okung has had a ton of injury problems in the past, missing 24 games in 6 years in the league and never once playing all 16 games. Okung was Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked offensive tackle last season, but that was just the second time in 6 years in the league in which he graded out above average. He’s a marginal starter at best, assuming he can even stay healthy.

On the right side, the Broncos signed Donald Stephenson, formerly of the Chiefs, to a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal to be the starter. He’s never had the injury issues that Okung has had, but he’s a significantly inferior player. He’s made just 21 starts in 4 years in the league, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012, grading out 54th out of 80 eligible offensive tackles in 7 starts in 2012, 61st out of 76 eligible in 7 starts in 2013, and 69th out of 77 eligible in 7 starts last season. The Broncos see him as a starting caliber player, as evidenced by the contract they gave him, but they’ll almost definitely be disappointed.

With Stephenson and Okung coming in, Sambrailo will move inside to guard. He struggled mightily in limited action at offensive tackle last season, but he could be better at guard in his 2nd year in the league. He could also have to move back to offensive tackle at some point, if Okung gets hurt or Stephenson struggles. For now, Sambrailo will replace departed left guard Evan Mathis, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard last season, but signed in Arizona as a free agent. He was easily their best offensive lineman last season, so he’ll really be missed.

Right guard Louis Vasquez is also gone. A poor fit for Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme, Vasquez graded out below average last season and was released, rather than being paid a non-guaranteed 5.5 million. Garcia will start opposite Sambrailo, after grading out about average on 587 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015. He played both left and right guard last season, so it’s unclear which position he’ll play and which position Sambrailo will play. 5th round rookie Connor McGovern will probably be the top reserve at guard, while Schofield, who struggled mightily when he was forced into action last season, will be the top reserve at offensive tackle. Guard and offensive tackle remain positions of weakness for the Broncos. Center Matt Paradis is probably their best offensive lineman. The 2014 6th round pick didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but made all 16 starts last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center. He’s not bad, but if he’s your best offensive lineman, you have a problem upfront.

Grade: C

Running Backs

I mentioned earlier that the Broncos’ offense was barely better when Brock Osweiler was the starter last season. That’s despite the fact that running back CJ Anderson was far better in the 2nd half of the season (coinciding with when Osweiler was the starter) than he was in the 1st half of the season. Anderson looked like he was running in slow motion for the first 6 weeks of the season, thanks to nagging lower body injuries, rushing for 180 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (2.69 YPC). However, he came back with a vengeance after the Broncos’ week 7 bye week, rushing for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns on 139 carries (5.57 YPC), between the final 10 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, finally looking like the running back that many were expecting him to be all season.

Anderson also closed out the 2014 season really well, rushing for 847 yards and 8 touchdowns on 180 carries (4.71 YPC) in 9 games (including playoffs) after taking over the starting job, which is why he had such high expectations going into the 2015 season. Now going into the 2016 season, those expectations are lower, but I think he still has a good chance to break out as a legitimate feature back, if he can stay healthy. The Broncos seem to agree, keeping him on a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal this off-season, matching the offer that the Dolphins made him as a restricted free agent.

Ronnie Hillman actually led the Broncos in carries last season with 207 (averaging 4.17 yards per carry), but didn’t even make the final roster this year. Fourth round rookie Devontae Booker will be Anderson’s primary backup. A second round talent, Booker slipped a couple rounds in the draft because of injury concerns, but he’s proven himself healthy this off-season. Even still, he’s a pure backup behind CJ Anderson, who figures to get the bulk of the carries for a team that figures to run the ball a lot. There will still be touches for Booker, but he won’t see more than a third of a carries unless Anderson gets hurt again and figures to make his biggest impact on passing downs.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Despite the Broncos’ issues in the passing game, both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders managed to have 1000+ yard seasons for the 2nd straight year. Thomas caught 105 passes for 1304 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Sanders caught 76 passes for 1135 yards and 6 touchdowns. Some of that is because they both got so many targets, without a consistent 3rd option in the passing game, as Thomas had 176 targets (4th most in the NFL) and Sanders had 137 (13th in the NFL).

Despite having less production, Sanders was actually the better of the two last season, finishing 13th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, as opposed to 49th for Thomas. Thomas obviously had huge raw numbers, but they’re less impressive when you take into account how many targets he needed to put up those numbers. However, nagging injuries that he dealt with were likely the cause of his down year, so he has a good chance to bounce back in 2016. That would be huge for this offense because he was a top-5 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2012-2014, the only player in the NFL who could say that.

Sanders, meanwhile, was 8th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2014, before last year’s #13 finish. Largely a league average receiver for the first 4 years of his career in Pittsburgh, the 2010 3rd round pick has really stepped his game up since arriving in Denver, proving the Broncos smart for giving him a 3-year, 15 million dollar contract two off-seasons ago. Most importantly, he’s played well in two different systems with two different quarterbacks, so he’s a genuine late bloomer, rather than a system receiver or someone whose production is the result of playing with a great quarterback.

Going into the final year of that 3-year deal, Sanders’ 3rd contract figures to be much bigger than his 2nd, though he is in an awkward spot, given that he’ll turn 30 during the off-season he hits free agency, if he does. The Broncos are currently trying to come to a long-term agreement with him, ahead of his contract year, but Sanders reportedly wants Jeremy Maclin money (5 years, 55 million) and the Broncos might not feel comfortable committing that kind of money to someone who they think only has 2-3 more good years left after this one. Those concerns are all long-term though. In the short-term, he’s an obvious asset to a Denver offense that overall lacks talent.

As I mentioned earlier, the Broncos really lacked capable options in the passing game after Sanders and Thomas, which hurt this offense. Owen Daniels finished 3rd on the team in receiving yards with 517 and no one else had more than 207. That’s a serious problem, especially since Daniels was let go this off-season, ahead of his age 34 season; he’s expected to retire, though he has not yet done so officially. Bennie Fowler, Andre Caldwell, and Jordan Norwood played 147, 268, and 378 snaps respectively last season and all three players struggled mightily, finishing 74th, 106th, and 105th respectively out of 121 eligible wide receivers.

Despite their lack of depth at the position and the fact that Sanders is going into a contract year, the Broncos did not add a single wide receiver in the draft (or tight end for that matter). Cody Latimer was drafted in the 2nd round in 2014 and the Broncos were probably expecting him to be the 3rd receiver, at the very least, by now, but he’s caught just 8 passes and played just 226 snaps in 2 years in the NFL. It’s possible he has a bigger role in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, but expectations should be low, given that he’s shown nothing through 2 years in the NFL.

Meanwhile at tight end, with Daniels gone and no other tight ends added this off-season, the Broncos are going to be counting on 2nd year player Jeff Heuerman to start this season. Heuerman was a 3rd round pick in 2015 and missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, so he’s a major question mark at this point. For what it’s worth, the Broncos are very high on him. Virgil Green remains as the blocking tight end. The 2011 7th round pick has just 35 career catches, but is a solid blocker who played decently overall on a career high 474 snaps last season. He should have a similar role this season, but he’s definitely not someone the Broncos can count on to be the 3rd option in the passing game that they need. Thomas and Sanders figure to dominate targets again, though the Broncos will likely run more often and pass less often than they did last season.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Broncos’ passing game and offense are going to have to be significantly better in 2016 if they want to win 12 games again, because they can’t count on so many close wins again. That’s assuming their defense is as good as it was in 2015, finishing 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed. There’s a very good chance they aren’t. That’s not to say they’ll be a bad unit. In fact, they’ll still be one of the better defenses in the NFL, but there’s no denying that they lost key defenders this off-season and didn’t really replace them.

The biggest loss was defensive end Malik Jackson, who was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2015. Jackson chased the money, taking a 6-year, 90 million dollar deal in Jacksonville, leaving the Broncos with a huge hole on the defensive line. They tried to fill that hole by signing Jared Crick and using a 2nd round pick on Georgia Tech defensive lineman Adam Gotsis. Crick has made 31 starts over the past 2 seasons, but he graded out below average in both seasons, including 118th out of 123 eligible interior defenders last season. In fact, the 2012 4th round pick has graded out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, though last year was easily the worst season of his career. Gotsis, meanwhile, was a reach at the end of the 2nd round. Gotsis was widely expected to go in the 4th or 5th round at the earliest and Pro Football Focus had a 6th round grade on him.

With the Broncos lost Jackson this off-season, they did keep fellow starting defensive end Derek Wolfe, signing him to a 4-year, 36.7 million dollar extension late last season, keeping him off the open market. Considering how much Jackson got on the open market, Wolfe undoubtedly would have gotten a significantly larger amount of money than that had he been allowed to hit the open market, so that extension was a great value and a borderline steal. Wolfe was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, playing the JJ Watt role in Wade Phillips’ defense and often times looking indistinguishable from Watt.

Wolfe is technically a one-year wonder, as the 2012 2nd round pick graded out below average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career from 2012-2014, but he has a good chance to have another dominant season in 2016. His struggles from 2012-2014 were largely because he primarily played out of position at 4-3 defensive end. He excelled against the run as a 4-3 defensive end, grading out above average against the run in 2 of 3 seasons as a 4-3 defensive end, including 2nd in pure run stopping grade at the position in 2014. His struggles were only as a pass rusher. The 6-5 285 pounder is a much better fit as a 3-4 defensive end and should continue to play well going forward.

Sylvester Williams remains as the nose tackle, the position where he made 15 starts last season. He was probably the Broncos’ worst defensive starter last season, though that’s not saying a ton on a defense that was as good as Denver’s was last season. He wasn’t awful, but he graded out below average, finishing 73rd out of 121 eligible interior defenders on 535 snaps. Williams was a first round pick by the Broncos in 2013, but has been a disappointment thus far in his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the NFL. Making matters worse, even though he’s only going into his 4th year in the league, he’s already going into his age 28 season, so he might not get any better. Wolfe elevates this whole defensive line, but they have problems overall after losing Jackson in free agency.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The other key defensive starter the Broncos lost, in addition to Jackson, is linebacker Danny Trevathan. Trevathan was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked linebacker last season, but signed with the Bears on a 4-year, 24.5 million dollar deal this off-season. He’ll be replaced internally by Todd Davis, a 2014 undrafted free agent. Davis has made just 4 starts in 2 years in the NFL and played just 139 snaps in 2015, so he’s a complete projection to an every down starting role. For what it’s worth, the Broncos are very high on him, but he’s still an obvious downgrade at middle linebacker.

Fortunately, fellow starting middle linebacker Brandon Marshall returns, signing a 4-year, 32 million dollar extension, ahead of what would have been his contract year in 2016. Marshall was a mere 5th round pick in 2012 and barely played in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the best linebackers in the league over the past 2 seasons. He finished 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and then 8th overall among middle linebackers in 2015. He should continue that strong play into 2016.

Outside, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware remain as starters. Both are talented edge rushers, but Miller is on another level. The 2nd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, Miller spent the first 4 years of his career as a hybrid 4-3 outside linebacker/defensive end, serving as a 3rd linebacker in base packages and then rushing the passer from the defensive end in sub packages, when a 5th defensive back would come in. He graded out #1 among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2011, 2012, and 2013, #2 among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014, and then was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in his first year in a 3-4 in 2015. One of the top players in the entire NFL and the reigning Super Bowl MVP, Miller was franchise tagged and eventually re-signed to a 6-year, 114.5 million dollar deal this off-season, the richest deal ever given to a defensive player.

Ware, meanwhile, might be entering his final year in Denver, going into the 3rd year of a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal that he signed two off-seasons ago, after spending the first 9 seasons of his career in Dallas. A future Hall-of-Famer whose 134.5 sacks are 11th all-time and 2nd among active players (Julius Peppers is #1), Ware is probably nearing the end, going into his age 34 season, but he’s still been good over the past 2 seasons. He finished the 2014 season 20th among 4-3 defensive ends and 2015 4th among 3-4 outside linebackers, back in a Wade Phillips 3-4 defense in which he’s spent most of his career, though he did miss 5 games with injury.

A big part of the reason why this is likely Ware’s last year in Denver, along with the fact that the Broncos need cap space for other positions and Ware could still be expensive to keep, is that they have promising 3-4 outside linebackers on the depth chart behind them. The Broncos traded up the 23rd pick in the 2015 NFL Draft to grab Missouri defensive end Shane Ray, who was falling as a result of a recent marijuana arrest. It was a surprising move because the Broncos already had Ware and Miller, but the Broncos reportedly had Ray in the top-10 on their board, despite the arrest.

However, it was not Ray who started last season when Ware was hurt. Instead, it was Shaquil Barrett, a 2014 undrafted free agent who flashed big time last season in limited action, in the 2nd year of his career. Barrett played 566 snaps, including 6 starts, and graded out above average and finished 41st out of 110 eligible edge defenders. Ray, meanwhile, actually struggled on 341 snaps. He still has a bright future and I’m certainly not writing him off long-term, but Ray probably won’t even beat out Barrett for the #3 job. The Broncos are stacked at the position and, aside from first time starter Todd Davis at middle linebacker, have a very talented linebacking corps overall.

Grade: A

Secondary

Even still, the Broncos’ secondary is their best unit, as they return their top-5 defensive backs from what was arguably the best secondary in the NFL last season, cornerbacks Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby, and safeties TJ Ward and Darian Stewart. Talib has the biggest name of the cornerbacks, but Harris is a far better player. That’s not a knock on Talib though, as Harris is arguably the top cornerback in the NFL. Harris has made 59 starts over the past 4 seasons, grading out in the top-9 of cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in each of those 4 seasons, joining Richard Sherman as the only cornerback in the NFL who can say that, including a #1 finish in 2014.

Talib has a bigger contract (6-year, 57 million), but he’s not a top tier cornerback, never grading out higher than 15th among cornerbacks in his career, including a 28th place finish in 2015. Talib has also missed 24 games in 7 years in the NFL, thanks to both injuries and off-the-field problems. As of this writing, he is recovering from a gunshot wound to the leg, which happened when he was too intoxicated to remember and reportedly may have been self-inflicted. Given his history of issues with guns, Talib could be facing league discipline and/or legal troubles if he did, in fact, :Plaxico Burress” himself. Fortunately, the actual gunshot wound was fairly minor and he’s expected to be good to go for the start of the season. I tentatively expect him to be eligible to play all 16 games next season, though that’s no longer a given.

If he does miss any time, the Broncos would be in good hands as 2014 1st round pick Bradley Roby is probably the top 3rd cornerback in the NFL, moving Harris to the slot in sub packages where he excels. He actually only has 6 career starts, but he’s graded out above average in both seasons and was actually better than Talib last season, finishing 23rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He could get a chance to be the starter in 2017, as Talib will be owed a non-guaranteed 11 million in his age 31 season in 2017. Like Ware, this could be Talib’s final year in Denver, as they have to get creative to figure out how to keep all their defensive talent long-term.

I mentioned linebacker Brandon Marshall and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders as players who are going into the final year of their contracts that will require hefty pay increases to keep. Another player like that is safety Darian Stewart, who proved to be a steal in the first year of a 2-year, 4.25 million dollar deal last off-season. Stewart finished the 2015 season 16th among safeties on Pro Football Focus, a major breakout year for the 2010 undrafted free agent. Stewart was forced into a starting role too early in 2011 with the hapless Rams, grading out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season, and played just 82 snaps the following season consequently. However, he got his starting job back in 2014 and has been better, including 2 straight seasons in which he’s graded out above average and last year’s career best year. He might not be quite as good again in 2016, but he’s an obvious value, owed just 2.5 million dollars this season.

Ward is more expensive, but he’s a huge part of this secondary as well. Ward had a down year by his standards in the first year of a 4-year, 22.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos in 2014, finishing 34th among safeties that season, but bounced back to finish 11th in 2015 and has graded out above average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the NFL, dating back to being drafted in the 2nd round by the Browns in 2010. He should have another strong year in 2016 in an overall loaded secondary.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year, but there are a number of ways that might not have happened, as the Broncos won by a touchdown or fewer in 11 of their 15 total wins, between the regular season and post-season. If they want to be a contender again in 2016, they’ll have to play better, as they can’t rely on winning by 3 every week. That’s unlikely to happen. They still have major issues on offense and suffered significant losses on the defensive side of the ball. Almost every year, a team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Among last year’s top-4 (New England, Carolina, and Arizona), Denver looks like the obvious favorite. They’ll have to battle to even make it back to the post-season.

Prediction: 8-8 4th in AFC West

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