Month: October 2016

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)

The Broncos were on my overrated teams list before the season, but they’ve proven me wrong thus far this season. After winning just 4 total games by more than a touchdown last season (including playoffs), I said the Broncos would have to play better this season to win 12 games and the division again, because they wouldn’t be able to rely on winning close games. The Broncos have done just that, winning their last 3 straight games all by 10 points or more. Their +47 point differential is 2nd best in the league and they also rank 2nd in first down percentage differential.

First year starting quarterback Trevor Siemian has played significantly better than either Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler did last season, while the offensive line and running game look much better in the 2nd year of Gary Kubiak’s offense. They rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage, after being one of the worst teams in the league in that category last season. On defense, they’ve played just as well as last season, despite the off-season loss of defensive end Malik Jackson and middle linebacker Danny Trevathan. They rank 7th in first down percentage allowed, despite facing the Panthers, Colts, and Bengals, three strong offenses.

The Falcons have also exceeded expectations, starting 3-1 with wins over legitimate playoff contenders Oakland and Carolina (the former is 3-1, while the latter is 1-3 and has played better than that suggests). Their defense has been one of the worst in the league (31st in first down percentage allowed), but their offense ranks first in first down percentage, carrying this team. They might not have the best offense in the league all season and their defense is one of the least talented in the league and figures to continue struggling, but it appears the Falcons will be a playoff contender and a tough opponent all season.

Last week’s 48-33 home victory over the Carolina Panthers was easily their most impressive performance of the season, as they were winning big even before Carolina quarterback Cam Newton got knocked out with a concussion. However, they may have trouble following that up, as teams are 52-75 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. That’s likely because teams are overconfident and overvalued off of a big home win like that. I can’t say for sure they’re overconfident, but they seem overvalued as mere 4 point underdogs in Denver. That line suggests the Broncos are only about a point better than the Falcons on a neutral field, which is not true. The Falcons have a strong offense, but the Broncos are a much more complete team.

There are two reasons why I’m not confident enough to put money on Denver though. One is the fact that they have to turn around and go to San Diego for Thursday Night Football next week. The Chargers are far from a tough opponent, but having to play 2 games in 5 days is always tough for teams. In fact, favorites are 50-74 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The second reason is the injury to quarterback Trevor Siemian, who will miss this game with a bad shoulder. Siemian is one of the reasons why they’ve been as good as they have been offensively thus far this season, even on a run first team. Instead, first round pick Paxton Lynch will start. He didn’t look bad last week in relief of Siemian and actually might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but he came into the league very raw and this is probably earlier than they’d like him to play. He gets a very easy defense to start his career though and the Broncos should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -4

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Tom Brady is back from his 4-game suspension and the Patriots are healthier than they have been all season around him, especially with Rob Gronkowski looking like he’s finally healthy enough to be a factor in the passing game, after largely blocking for a conservative offense the past two weeks with a bad hamstring and a rookie quarterback under center. The Patriots do not figure to be nearly as conservative with Brady back and he has plenty of weapons around him to torch a Cleveland defense that’s one of the worst in the entire league.

However, this just feels like a trap game from a bettor’s standpoint. It’s possible it takes Brady a week or so to get back into a rhythm and it’s possible that his teammates relax a little with him back and don’t play as well as they’ve been playing with him out. Cleveland is a weak opponent, but the Patriots are whopping 11 point favorites here on the road and everyone and their brother is betting on them looking to make some easy money in Tom’s return. This might be a huge win for the sportsbooks. I can’t bet anything on the Browns, especially since Bill Belichick is 44-24 ATS off of a loss since he took over as head coach of the Patriots, but I’d pick them if I had to.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +11

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

Both of these teams had rough starts and then came roaring back. The Bills dropped their first two games, including a home loss on Thursday night to the divisional rival Jets, but fired their offensive coordinator after week 2 and seem to have woken the team up, as they’ve defeated the Cardinals and Patriots in underdog fashion in each of the last 2 weeks. What once looked like an 0-4 start and Rex Ryan’s firing is now a 2-2 start and a team right back in the playoff mix. The Rams, meanwhile, got annihilated on Monday Night Football week 1 28-0 by the lowly 49ers, but have since bounced back to win their last 3 games, including a home game against Seattle week 2 and a game in Arizona last week. Those are their two biggest division rivals.

However, the Bills 2-2 record is more legitimate than the Rams’ 3-1 record is. The Rams 3 wins have come by a combined 15 points and they still have a negative -13 point differential on the season. In fact, in none of their 3 victories did they win the first down percentage battle. Last week, they were able to beat the Cardinals by 4 despite allowing 12 more first downs than the Cardinals did, thanks to a +4 turnover margin and a late long punt return. Those things are very tough to rely on every week, especially turnover margin. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a game, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

Add in their crushing week 1 loss to a terrible opponent (which can’t be ignored in a season that’s still only had 4 games) and the Rams rank dead last in the league in first down percentage differential despite their 3-1 record and by a wide margin. They rank 32nd in first down percentage, 24th in first down percentage allowed, and their -10.25% differential is significantly worse than 31st place Cleveland, who come in at -5.89%. If the Rams want to continue winning, they’re going to have to play significantly better.

That’s going to be tough this week, as the Rams are expected to be down 3 defensive lineman with injury, as defensive tackle Michael Brockers, defensive end Robert Quinn, and defensive end William Hayes are all on the doubtful side of questionable after not practicing all week. The Rams’ defensive line is easily the strength of an overall underwhelming defense, so those players are a huge loss. The Bills are still without top wide receiver Sammy Watkins and first and second round rookies Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland with injury, but they got stud left tackle Cordy Glenn back last week from injury and now get top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus back from a 4-game suspension.

The Bills only rank 24th in first down percentage differential, but they have a major talent advantage in this one. They’re also in a much better spot, as they face the lowly 49ers in Buffalo in arguably the easiest game of their season next week, while the Rams turn around and face another competent team (Detroit) on the road. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The Bills are the play here.

Buffalo Bills 17 Los Angeles Rams 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Coming into the season, I had the Eagles atop my underrated teams list. I bet on them in each of their first 3 games, first as mere 3.5 point home favorites against the lowly Bears, then as 3.5 point road underdogs against the lowly Bears, then as 4 point home underdogs for the Pittsburgh Steelers week 3, prior to their week 4 bye. Not only did the Eagles cover all 3 games, but they covered them easily and actually have the league’s best point differential at +65 (despite only playing 3 games) and rank 1st in the league in first down percentage differential through their first 3 games. They might not finish the season as the league’s best team, but so far that’s what they’ve been.

Now, they no longer seem underrated. After their dominant performance against the Steelers, they come out of their bye as 3.5 point road favorites against a capable Detroit team. Now that they’re no longer underrated, I’m actually going to go the other way. The Eagles have had two weeks to hear about how great they are and the lines have adjusted, as this line was 1 in favor of the Lions last week on the early line (the Lions close upset loss in Chicago likely had something to do with that too). I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be the result of week-to-week overreactions. On top of that, teams like the Eagles who are coming off of a home upset victory tend not to cover the following week, likely because they’re overconfident and overvalued. Teams are 52-75 ATS in that spot since 2012. Despite that, the public is still all over the Eagles and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as well, as they always lose money in the long run.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because of how undermanned the Lions are on defense right now. They’re missing two of their three best defensive players with injury once again (linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah) and it has shown this season. Fortunately, their offense has remained strong and, even if this game isn’t close for most of the game, I like their chances of a late backdoor cover if they’re down by 10 late. As long as this line is higher than 3, I think it’s worth putting money on. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Eagles are a good team, but not as good as they’ve looked so far, so I like getting 3.5 with the Lions at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)

The Dolphins are 3.5 point favorites here at home against the Titans, but have a much tougher game on deck, as they have to turn around and host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The early line has them as 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 51-95 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4, including 7-19 ATS as favorites, as tough upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction. Meanwhile, the Titans turn around and host the Browns in arguably the easiest game of their season, a game in which they’re expected to be 5.5 point favorites. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Titans are also in their second of two road games, which helps. Teams are 131-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 231-233 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 331-451 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.81 points per game.

As long as this line is 3.5, this is my Pick of the Week. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games by exactly 3 points. Because of the frequency of 3-point games, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team than the Titans, which I don’t agree with. This line should be 3 at the most, before you even take into account all of the situational factors involved in this game and the fact that the Dolphins have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years (5-12 ATS at home since 2014, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites). I actually have the Titans as a little bit better than the Dolphins, who could easily be 0-4 right now if not for 3 missed field goals in regulation by the Browns week 3. The Titans are a big play and the money line at +150 isn’t a bad idea either, since this game seems like at least a toss up. Worst case scenario, it’s tough to see the Dolphins winning by more than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

The offense is the side of the ball with the most need for improvement, as they rank 30th in offensive first down percentage. Both with and without Adrian Peterson, they’ve struggled to run the ball, largely as a result of an offensive line that has been very shaky and is missing both week 1 starting offensive tackles with injury, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. They’re not in a good spot to improve offensively this week, as Houston enters with the 2nd best defense in the league in terms of first down percentage allowed. The Texans haven’t faced a tough schedule so far and are not the same unit without JJ Watt, but the Vikings are expected to be without top wide receiver Stefon Diggs with injury. Without him, the Vikings are very weak at the wide receiver position. There’s just not a lot of talent around Sam Bradford on this offense right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, get left tackle Duane Brown back from injury after the talented blindside protector missed the first 4 games of the season with a quad injury. He’ll be a boost to an offense that has ranked 31st in offensive first down percentage thus far this season, though the Vikings’ defense is a very tough matchup. Even without defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who is injured, the Vikings rank 6th in first down percentage allowed, despite a pair of early games against the Packers and Panthers.

Both teams have weak offenses and strong defenses and they’re much more even than this line suggests. Especially in what figures to be a low scoring affair, getting 7 points is a dream. I wouldn’t put this line any higher than 4. The Texans are better than the Giants, against whom the Vikings were just 5 point favorites last week with a healthy Stefon DIggs. The one thing that prevents this from being my Pick of the Week is the fact that the Vikings are going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. However, usually big home favorites are significantly superior to their opponents, which is not the case in this game, as the Vikings do not deserve to be touchdown favorites. It’s a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

After last week’s home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the perception of the Cardinals right now is that the sky is falling for them. However, they’re a couple plays away from being 3-1, as two of their losses came by a combined 6 points. Their one win, meanwhile, came by 33 points. They still have a +12 point differential and rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. Losing quarterback Carson Palmer with a concussion is a big loss, but their defense has been their best unit this season (4th in first down percentage allowed), while the offense has been more pedestrian (11th in first down percentage), largely as a result of some early season struggles by Carson Palmer. Drew Stanton is a capable backup at best and a significant downgrade, but the Cardinals still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on offense, both at the skill positions and on the offensive line.

The 49ers also come in banged up, losing promising rookie DeForest Buckner (the 7th overall pick) for at least this week and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman for the year. They join top cornerback Jimmie Ward on the sideline. He’ll miss his 2nd straight game. Those might be their three best defensive players. They do get top pass rusher Aaron Lynch back from a 4-game suspension, but he doesn’t offset the loss of the other guys. The 49ers already have one of the worst offenses in football and now might have one of the worst defenses in football, after it showed promise to start the season. Live will be as easy as possible for Stanton in his spot start, as his offensive supporting cast is far more talented than San Francisco’s defense. It’s a short week, which is tough, but he’s a veteran guy with experience in the system. And in the fact that the Cardinals’ defense figures to shut down Blaine Gabbert and company on a short week and the Cardinals figure to get back in the win column this week.

However, we’re not getting nearly as good of a line as I thought we would. The early line was 6 last week and I figured it would move significantly, with the Cardinals losing at home and Palmer getting knocked out, but it’s still at 3.5. That’s not a small line movement, but 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so I’d be worried about the backdoor cover with Arizona, even in a low scoring game. The 49ers are also in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 78-53 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Cardinals are the pick, but I don’t recommend putting money on it.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

I’m torn on this one. The Jets turned the ball over a ridiculous 8 times last week, but still were in the game against Kansas City until late. In fact, they only allowed one offensive touchdown all game. The Seahawks have played well so far this year and enter this game 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Jets are easily the toughest opponent they’ve faced thus far, after starting the season with Miami, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Their offense has made major problems through 3 games, thanks to a weak offensive line and Russell Wilson being at less than 100% with some injuries. Wilson is still playing hurt and the offensive line is still a mess, but he also has the best receiving corps he’s ever had and, if Christine Michael can continue to run like he did last week, it’s going to go a long way towards keeping this offense on schedule. This line is under 3, so I’d have to be confident they’d win if I took the Jets. I’m not, so I’m taking the Seahawks, but this is a no confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -2

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Steelers lost last week in Philadelphia 34-3, their biggest loss since 1989. It was also just the 15th time since 2003 that a favorite lost by 31 points or more. Obviously, the Steelers should not have been 4 point road favorites in Philadelphia, but that’s more so because the Eagles have been an underrated team all year, rather than Pittsburgh being a bad team. In fact, Philadelphia +4 was my Pick of the Week last week for that exact reason. The Steelers should be able to bounce back this week against Kansas City, especially with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell, returning from suspension this week. In fact, teams are 91-54 ATS off of an ATS loss of 28 or more since 2002. Teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed in that situation.

Unfortunately, this line still reflects that the Steelers should be able to bounce back this week. Despite the big loss, this line only moved from 6 to 5 in the past week. If this line were 4 or fewer, I’d be comfortable putting money on the Steelers, but it’s hard to be confident in them as 5 point favorites, as about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Bell is coming back this week, but they’re missing a key starter on both sides of the ball with guard Ramon Foster and linebacker Ryan Shazier expected to be out for this one. They should still be the right side, but this is a low confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

Both of these teams enter this one incredibly banged up. While the Lions are missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, the Bears’ injuries are more numerous. Not only are they missing quarterback Jay Cutler, but they’re also missing top cornerback Kyle Fuller, top pass rusher Pernell McPhee, talented middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, talented nose tackle Eddie Goldman, and valuable reserve LaMarr Houston. Talent wise, they’re one of the few worst teams in the entire league without those guys.

That being said, the Lions might not be justified as 3.5 point road favorites in Chicago without Levy and Ansah. The Lions’ defense is built around those two and top cornerback Darius Slay and looked predictably overmatched without them last week against Green Bay. Chicago obviously doesn’t have the same kind of offensive firepower, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less so I like the Bears’ chances of at least getting a backdoor cover late, especially since the public is all over Detroit. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. This is a no confidence pick though and I might switch sides at 3.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: None

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