Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3)

This is a line I legitimately don’t understand. As a result of injuries and off-season losses, the Bengals are not the same team they were last season. They enter this game 15th in first down rate differential, a little better than 3-4-1 their record suggests, but average at best. The Giants, meanwhile, are 5-3 despite a -7 turnover margin and their 3rd toughest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponent win/loss record. They rank 9th in first down rate differential and have been a noticeably better team than the Bengals this season, but despite that they are 1 point home underdogs here for this Monday Night Football game. The Giants are missing top offensive lineman Justin Pugh with injury, but this we’re getting at least 5 points of line value with the Giants (I’d have the Bengals at +4), so the Giants are the easy choice here.

New York Giants 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +1

Confidence: Medium

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