Month: November 2016

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The Titans pulled off a huge home upset victory over the Green Bay Packers last week, which shifted this line from 4 in favor of the host Indianapolis Colts on the early line last week down to 3 this week, a significant shift considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and I also tend to fade teams coming off of home upset victories, as teams are just 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. However, the Titans have been at the top of my underrated teams list pretty much all season and I think even after last week’s statement victory they remain underrated. Most seem to be attributing Tennessee’s win to Green Bay not being good anymore, but it’s Tennessee’s rise, not Green Bay’s supposed fall that should be the story from that game.

Despite 5-5 record, the Titans enter this game 3rd in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +13 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +61 point differential (which would be 4th best in the NFL). They have 33 offensive touchdowns on the season, as opposed to 21 allowed by their defense, a +12 differential that is best in the NFL. This line still suggests these two teams are even, but that’s far from the case.

Part of that is because the Colts are overrated. People remember them beating the Packers in Green Bay before their bye, but that was largely because of long returns on special teams. The Packers lost the first down rate battle by 9.50% against the Titans, but won by 5.20% against the Colts. Prior to that, the Colts were blown out at home 31-13 by a Chiefs team that has scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 games since. On the season, despite a few wins, the Colts rank just 29th in first down rate differential, thanks to a defense that is allowing the highest first down rate in the league. Outside of special teams, this hasn’t been a good Indianapolis team this season.

Prior to the Chiefs game, the Colts did beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee, but the Titans have still been a lot better on the season. Also, that loss puts the Titans in a good spot here, as divisional road underdogs are 60-32 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. These teams aren’t even comparable, so the Titans should have a great chance of evening the season series. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the Titans don’t really have much of a homefield advantage, so the fact that this is a road game for them isn’t that big of a deal. Since 2010, the Titans have been outscored by 5 points per game on the road and 3 points per game at home, suggesting their homefield advantage has been worth about a point over that time period.

The Titans are also in a much better spot than the Colts because the Colts have to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Thursday Night on Thanksgiving, while the Titans go to Chicago to take on a Bears team that’s been one of the worst in the league this year. The Titans figure to be completely focused to take down an opponent that has caused them a lot of trouble in recent years, while the Colts could get caught looking forward to a tough Thursday Night game. The early line has them as 3 point home underdogs against the Steelers, while the Titans are favored by a point in Chicago. Favorites are 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, while underdogs are 92-60 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. If the Colts aren’t focused, they’re going to have a very tough time defeating a team that has significantly outplayed them this season. This is not only my Pick of the Week, but also one of my favorite picks all year.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)

The Panthers lost last week by a field goal at home, their 4th loss this season by 3 points or fewer. This loss was particularly heartbreaking for them as they led 17-0 early, but blew the lead and ended up losing 20-17 on the strength of a return touchdown and a late takeaway in Carolina territory that set up the winning field goal. Even though they won the game, the Chiefs actually didn’t score a single offensive touchdown all game and lost the first down battle 22-18. As you can imagine given all of their close loss, the Panthers have played better overall than their record suggests, as they rank 14th in first down rate differential. It’s a far cry from their 2015 team, but they could easily be 5-4 or 6-3 right now if a couple things had gone their way.

The problem for them this week is the Saints are also better than their record. The Saints enter this game at 4-5, but 3 of those losses came by 3 points or fewer, including a heartbreaker last week in which the Saints’ go-ahead extra point was blocked and returned for a game winning 2-point conversion by the Broncos’ defense. The Saints enter this game 8th in first down rate differential, a few spots higher than the Panthers, and also have a better point differential (-5 vs. +2). At 3.5 in favor of the host Carolina Panthers, this line suggests the Panthers are a slightly better team than the Saints, but I think it’s the other way around.

At the very least, these two teams are even, so this line shouldn’t be any higher than a field goal. The difference between 3 and 3.5 might not seem like much, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it’s a pretty big half point. The Saints are also in a better spot, as they host the lowly Rams next week, while the Panthers have to travel to face Oakland. Underdogs are 91-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Even if the Panthers win, this game figures to be close, so I’d put money on the Saints at 3.5. At +3, it’s probably worth buying the half point.

Carolina Panthers 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

The Falcons are 6-3 and one of the better teams in the league this season thanks primarily to a high flying offense that leads the NFL with a first down or touchdown on a whopping 43.26% of snaps, including 50% in back-to-back games against the Packers and Buccaneers coming into this game. No other offense is even close, as the 2nd place Cowboys have a first down rate of 41.74% and the 3rd place Saints are at 40.63%. The defense hasn’t been nearly as good, allowing the 4th highest first down rate in the NFL, but their offense has been good enough to compensate, so they rank 4th in first down rate differential entering this one.

The Falcons offense will probably have to play at a very high level once again this week, as the Falcons’ defense is without cornerback Desmond Trufant, arguably their best defensive player and certainly their best defensive back. Without him, an already weak defense gets even worse. The Eagles are not a great team and have fallen back to earth after a 3-0 start and sit here at 4-4, but they’re not bad either. They enter this game 16th in first down rate differential. I’m not confident either way in this game, but the Eagles are the pick as 1.5 point home underdogs against the Falcons without Trufant.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)

These are two of the worst teams in the league so I’m not going to spend much time on this pick. The Rams are a slightly better team, as they rank 30th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 31st for the Jets, but we’re not really getting line value with them as mere 1.5 point underdogs. The Jets are in a tough spot, looking forward to a bye as small favorites; Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002. It’s a no confidence pick, but I’m taking the Rams.

New York Jets 17 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles +1.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)

The Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league in each of the last two seasons. This season, the Chargers have been missing wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. Joining them this week will be starting middle linebackers Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown and starting wide receiver Travis Benjamin.

The Chargers are going into a bye, which is good news from an injury standpoint, as it gives them time to get their players back, but it’s also bad news because it puts them in a bad spot this week. Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002, as teams tend to get caught looking forward to their week off in this spot. The Chargers are 4.5 point favorites, so they fall right in the range. That’s also too many points, given the Chargers’ injury situation and the fact that the Dolphins are a quality opponent. The Dolphins are 12th in first down rate differential, just a few spots behind the Chargers, who enter this game in 8th. Even banged up and in a bad spot, the Chargers will probably win this game, but 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so the Dolphins are the right pick if we’re getting 4.5 with them. There’s not enough for me to put money on them though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Washington Redskins (4-3-1)

When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost all 3 games, all in upset fashion, against the Eagles, Bears, and Lions. Over those 3 games, they were +1 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin, which made a huge difference and exposed one of the most stagnant offenses in the league. They have a great defense, but they’ll never be anything more than an average team unless they can move the ball consistently. In their 3 losses, they scored just 36 points, which could be a sign of things to come.

However, now after those 3 losses, the Vikings aren’t really overrated anymore. In fact, the 4-3-1 Redskins are a little bit more overrated, as they enter this game 26th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 19th for the Vikings. That’s largely thanks to a defense that ranks 30th in first down rate allowed. Their offense ranks 6th in first down rate, but, overall, but they’ve been a mediocre team at best this season. Their only win by more than a touchdown came at home against the Browns, a game in which they didn’t even play that well, allowing 26 first downs. We’re not getting great line value or anything with the Vikings as mere 2.5 point road underdogs in Washington, but they’re the pick in pick ‘em pools.

Washington Redskins 20 Minnesota Vikings 19

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Bears are just 2-6, but things are not that bad for them right now. Despite a rash of injuries, the Bears were better than their record suggested in the first 8 games of the season and enter this game 20th in first down rate differential. They also enter this game as healthy as they’ve been all season coming off of their bye, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, left guard Josh Sitton, and right guard Kyle Long, 3 key trench players, all returning this week. Prior to the bye, the Bears got back players like middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and quarterback Jay Cutler back from injury. With the players they currently have healthy, the Bears are not a bad team.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are not as good. They enter this game just 27th in first down rate differential, despite not having as many injuries as the Bears. They’ve also lacked any sort of homefield advantage in recent years, going just 18-39 ATS at home since 2009. The problem is this line is at 2.5 in favor of the visiting Bears, so we’re not really getting any line value with them. They’re still the right side here in pick ‘em pools as long as the line is under 3, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This line has moved from 2.5 in favor of the Panthers on the early line last week to 3 this week, which doesn’t seem like a huge line movement, but it is when you consider that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. This time though, the line movement is legitimate, as the Chiefs will be without top receiver Jeremy Maclin and starting defensive end Jaye Howard with injury.

In fact, I think we’re still getting good line value with the Panthers, who are the better of these two teams, despite their records. This line suggests these two teams are even, but the Panthers rank 14th in first down rate differential, while the Chiefs rank 24th. Three of the Panthers five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are legitimately a few plays away from being 5-3 or even 6-2 like the Chiefs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 6-2 with the help of a 3-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league leading +12 turnover margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable long-term. There’s not enough for me to put money on the Panthers at 3, especially since the Panthers are hosting the Saints in 4 days on Thursday Night Football (favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football), but I would consider it if this line dropped to 2.5.

Carolina Panthers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

The Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. I didn’t bet heavily on them in their last game as 3 point underdogs in Carolina because they were coming off of a 5-quarter tie (which is usually a tough situation) and because Carolina was also underrated. I was hoping the Panthers would beat the Cardinals so we could get even better value with the Cardinals coming out of their bye in week 10. The Panthers did beat the Cardinals, 30-20, but the Cardinals also lost left tackle Jared Veldheer and cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time with injuries in that game. Those two are critical players for this team. On top of that, they’re still 13.5 point home favorites here because their opponents, the 49ers, have been so terrible this season, so we’re not really getting good line value with the Cardinals either, especially when you take into account their injury situation.

That being said, I’m still taking the Cardinals here. Despite their 3-4-1 record, they rank 6th in point differential and 1st in first down rate differential. Their losses to New England and Los Angeles were both very close, while their tie to Seattle could have been a win if one of a number of different things had gone their way. They have won the first down battle in 7 of 8 games and are legitimately a few plays away from being 6-2 right now, after finishing 13-3 and in first place in first down rate differential in 2015. Their offense isn’t what it was last season, but their defense has been even better. Their special teams have been problematic, but, even without Veldheer and Mathieu, this is still one of the best teams in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have lost their last 7 straight by an AVERAGE of 17.29 points per game, so all of a sudden this line at 13.5 doesn’t seem so high. Just two of their losses came by fewer than two touchdowns. One of those 2 losses by less than two touchdowns was a 12 point home loss to these Cardinals week 5, even though the Cardinals were starting backup Drew Stanton in place of injured starting quarterback Carson Palmer. With Palmer back, the Cardinals should be able to win big here at home.

The Cardinals are in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play a much tougher Minnesota team next week, a game that could have significant playoff and playoff seeding implications. The Cardinals will almost definitely be road underdogs in Minnesota next week and favorites of 10 or more are just 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs, as teams can overlook significantly inferior opponents with a tough game on deck. That being said, the 49ers are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and host the Patriots next week, a game in which they’re whopping 14.5 point home underdogs on the early line. That could be a major distraction for the 49ers. Underdogs of 10 or more are 48-79 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 10 or more again, while teams are 37-89 ATS since 2012 before being 4.5+ point home underdogs. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in putting money on the Cardinals as home favorites of this many points, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -13.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

The Cowboys enter this game with the best record in the NFC at 7-1 and rank 2nd in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule thus far, as they rank dead last in strength of schedule, in terms of total opponents’ records, but the Steelers are not nearly as tough of an opponent as this line suggests. This line is at 3 in favor of the home team Pittsburgh Steelers, suggesting these two teams are essentially even, which I disagree with. The Steelers enter this game just 22nd in first down rate differential.

Part of that has been injuries/suspensions, as Pro-Bowl guys like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell, defensive end Cameron Heyward have all missed time, but the Steelers also just aren’t as good as they’ve been in recent years. Outside of Bell and Antonio Brown, they’re hurting for skill position talent without Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller, while their defense is subpar even when Heyward is healthy. Even with a relatively easy schedule thus far, the Steelers are far from the toughest game the Cowboys have had thus far, as they’ve played the likes of the Giants, Redskins, Packers, Eagles, and Bengals, all of whom are comparable to or better than the Steelers. The Cowboys are 4-1 in those 5 games.

Not only are the Cowboys significantly better, they’re also a great road team, as a result of their national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.96 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.08 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They are also 21-12 ATS as road underdogs over that time period. The Steelers are in a good spot with an easy trip to Cleveland on deck and teams are 48-34 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, which the Steelers definitely will be, so this isn’t a huge play, but there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Cowboys at 3 in Pittsburgh.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]