Month: November 2016

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

The Texans are 5-3, but rank just 25th in first down rate percentage. That’s because their 5 wins have come by a combined 33 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points. Their -30 point differential is also just 25th in the NFL. All 5 of their wins came at home against average or worst opponents, with none coming by more than a touchdown. Their 3 losses, meanwhile, came in their 3 road games and were all blowouts. The Jaguars are not the Vikings, Patriots, or Broncos, the Texans’ 3 road opponents to date, but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy for them, given that they’ve struggled for most of the season.

Looking at Jacksonville’s 2-6 record, you’d think they’ve struggled for most of the season as well, and they have played very poorly at times, but much of their struggles have been the result of a league worst -12 turnover differential. Last week, they likely would have beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City if not for a -4 turnover differential. Despite that -4 differential, it was still just a 5 point game, as the Jaguars won the first down battle 25 to 10. Turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent from week-to-week. For example, teams that have a -4 turnover differential in a game like the Jaguars did last week, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week and cover at a 53.2% rate as a result.

The Jaguars actually enter this game 10th in first down rate differential. Outside of those 12 plays, they really haven’t been bad this season and if they play just turnover neutral football going forward they figure to win significantly more games in their final 8 games than their first 8 games. On paper, they have a reasonable roster and are relatively healthy right now. These two teams are at least even so the Jaguars should be at least field goal favorites at home here, meaning we’re getting a decent amount of line value with the Jaguars as mere 1 point home favorites. The Jaguars are worth a bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -1

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3)

This is a line I legitimately don’t understand. As a result of injuries and off-season losses, the Bengals are not the same team they were last season. They enter this game 15th in first down rate differential, a little better than 3-4-1 their record suggests, but average at best. The Giants, meanwhile, are 5-3 despite a -7 turnover margin and their 3rd toughest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponent win/loss record. They rank 9th in first down rate differential and have been a noticeably better team than the Bengals this season, but despite that they are 1 point home underdogs here for this Monday Night Football game. The Giants are missing top offensive lineman Justin Pugh with injury, but this we’re getting at least 5 points of line value with the Giants (I’d have the Bengals at +4), so the Giants are the easy choice here.

New York Giants 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +1

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)

The Titans may be just 4-5, but they actually rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +39 point differential (which would be 6th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 10 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +9 advantage (27 to 18).

The Packers are also better than their record, as their 3 of their losses have come by a combined 9 points and were all very winnable games. They could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now and rank 5th in first down rate differential. However, because the Packers are the Packers and the Titans are the Titans, the odds makers have underrated the Titans, but not the Packers here, even though these two teams actually have very similar records. The Packers are favored by a field goal here in Tennessee, so we’re getting great line value with the hosts. These two teams are much more even than people realize. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so the Titans at 3 are my Pick of the Week this week.

Tennessee Titans 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at New England Patriots (7-1)

Despite a strong 5-2-1 record, the Seahawks have been underwhelming through their first 8 games of the season. Their tie would have been a loss if not for a number of fluky special teams mistakes by the Cardinals, while their only 2 wins by more than 6 points have come against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league. Despite having the 3rd easiest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponents’ record, the Seahawks rank just 11th in first down rate differential.

There are reasons to be optimistic for the Seahawks though. For one, they get safety Kam Chancellor back from injury, who they really missed during his 4-game absence. Defensive end Michael Bennett remains out, a huge absence, but at least Chancellor returns to a defense that has still played well despite players missing time. Their offense has been where they’ve had problems, thanks largely to a weak offensive line and a banged up Russell Wilson. However, they looked as good offensively last week as they did all season, as Wilson gets closer to 100%.

The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 30-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 8.69 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career. Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run.

Despite that, they are 8 point underdogs here in New England. For context, the Seahawks have lost just 2 games in Russell Wilson’s career by more than 8 points, including playoffs, a stretch of 82 games total. Those 2 losses were by 9 points and 10 points, so they weren’t exactly blown out in those games either. The public seems to expect a New England beatdown of the Seahawks, as most of the money is on the favorite this week, but the public is often wrong and always loses money in the long run. This figures to be a close game.

The Patriots are probably the best team in the league right now, given that they are basically completely healthy, but they have also played a very easy schedule, the 2nd easiest in the league in terms of win/loss record. They are in a good spot coming off of a bye, with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck after this one. Touchdown favorites are 56-30 ATS since 2012 before being touchdown favorites again, which the Patriots definitely will be next week against the lowly 49ers. At the same time, this is also a tough spot for them, as it’s a night game against a west coast team. Because of how human sleep cycles work, teams that are used to the western time zone have a major advantage at night against teams used to the eastern time zone, covering about 2/3rds of the time. I thought about making this my Pick of the Week and there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Seahawks as underdogs of 7 or more.

New England Patriots 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +8

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Broncos were favored by a point on the early line, but are now 3 point road favorites in New Orleans. It’s a somewhat understandable line movement. The Saints have won 4 of 5 after a 0-3 start, including a 41-23 victory in San Francisco last week, while the Broncos have lost 3 of 5 since a 4-0 start, including a 30-20 loss in Oakland last week. On top of that, the Saints got back key defenders Delvin Breaux and Sheldon Rankins from injury last week, while the Broncos are without key defenders Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib this week.

That being said, that’s still a very large line movement, as about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I’m not sure it’s completely warranted. This line suggests these two teams are about even, which I don’t think is quite true. The Broncos enter this game still in 6th in first down rate differential, while the Saints enter in 13th. Injury situations aside, the Broncos are still the better team right now. The Broncos are also in a much better spot, as the Saints have to turn around and go to Carolina next week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 135-103 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 107-71 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 227-244 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.86 points per game, as opposed to 326-456 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.02 points per game. The Broncos are worth a bet if you can get the full field goal. The moneyline is also a good bet, as this game is a toss up at worst for the visiting Broncos.

Denver Broncos 24 New Orleans Saints 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-9) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

The Browns are arguably the worst team in the league and certainly one of the worst two or three teams, but this line is way too high at 10. The Ravens are a solid squad, but have the worst offense in the league in terms of first down percentage. Their defense has been great, entering this game with the 2nd lowest first down percentage allowed in the NFL, but they only rank 18th in first down percentage differential, despite the 4th easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent’s winning percentage. The Browns have a very weak defense, but it’s still going to be very tough for the Ravens to cover the 10, as limited as they are offensively. In fact, their last win by more than 10 points came in week 14 of 2014. And that’s despite the fact that they’ve played the Browns 4 times since then.

The Ravens are also in a horrible spot, playing an inferior team on a short week after a huge home upset victory over the Steelers last week, with a tough trip to Dallas on deck, a game in which they figure to be at least 6 point underdogs on the early line. Favorites of 6 or more are 23-52 ATS since 2008 before being 6 point underdogs and favorites of 10 or more are 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of any amount. On top of that, teams are 58-78 ATS since 2012 off of a home upset victory like the Ravens’ win over the Steelers last week.

The Browns aren’t exactly in an easy spot either, as they have to turn around and face the Steelers at home, a game in which they figure to be huge home underdogs. Teams are 37-88 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as big upcoming home games like that tend to be a big distraction for teams. However, that has not been the case historically with winless teams this late in the season, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 17-8 ATS before being huge home underdogs since 1989. Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 53-25 ATS since 1989. Winless teams understandably tend to be undervalued and I think that’s the case in this game. The Browns have kept 4 of their 9 losses within single digits and I like their chances of doing so this week against a Baltimore team that has had major issues moving the ball this season.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Steelers. Not only is Ben Roethlisberger expected to return from a 1-game absence with a knee injury, but they are basically 100% healthy coming out of the bye. This is after the Steelers were one of the most injury plagued teams in the league to start the season. The Steelers’ record isn’t bad, but they rank just 25th in first down percentage differential, largely thanks to all of their injuries. It’s not just Ben Roethlisberger, as wide receiver Markus Wheaton, left guard Ramon Foster, right tackle Marcus Gilbert, defensive end Cameron Heyward, and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier have all missed time with injury, while running back Le’Veon Bell missed time with suspension. Outside of Roethlisberger, Heyward was their biggest injury because he’s their best defensive player. They missed him badly in the two games he missed before the bye (both losses) and he’ll be a very welcome re-addition.

The Ravens are also coming out of a well timed bye. The Ravens limped into the bye week with an underwhelming loss in New York to the lowly Jets, a game in which they were missing middle linebacker CJ Mosley, outside linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, right guard Marshal Yanda, and wide receiver Steve Smith. Dumervil remains out, as he has been for most of the season, but everyone else should be back healthy. When they were healthier, the Ravens started the season 3-0 before losing 4 straight, but that was because they had several close wins against weak opponents. Overall on the season, they’ve had a much easier schedule than the Steelers and are overall a worse team when both of these teams are healthy. This line is more or less where it should be at 2 in favor of the visiting Steelers, but I’m taking the Steelers for a no confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-4)

The Rams come out of the bye healthy on defense, after key players like cornerback Trumaine Johnson, defensive tackle Michael Brockers, and defensive ends William Hayes and Robert Quinn all missed some time in the weeks before the bye. Right now, the Rams are more or less at full strength as a team, something few teams can say at this point in the season. Unfortunately, even when the defense is healthy, this is far from a quality team because of their lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball. They rank 30th in first down percentage differential, thanks primarily to an offense that ranks 28th in first down percentage. Their defense is better now that it’s healthy, but this is still one of the weakest teams in the NFL.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a lot better than their 2-5 record. Three of their five losses have come by a field goal or less and they’ve had one of the tougher schedules in the league thus far this season. They enter this game 12th in first down percentage differential. They’ve also had both quarterback Cam Newton and running back Jonathan Stewart miss time this season and both are back healthy now, an obvious boost. They’re not the same team they were last season, but they’re still a strong opponent. The problem is we’re not getting any line value with them as this line has shifted from 1.5 to 3.5 in favor of the Panthers in the past week, thanks to Carolina’s home victory over the Cardinals last week. Carolina is the pick, but this is a no confidence pick.

Carolina Panthers 20 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (6-2)

The Raiders are 6-2, but they’ve been one of the most disappointing teams in the league in my opinion. Stacked with young talent and coming off of an off-season in which they had a ton of cap space and added a lot of talent in free agency, I had the Raiders finishing 2nd in the AFC before the season started. They enter this game tied for the 2nd seed with the visiting Denver Broncos, but 5 of their 6 wins have come by 7 points or fewer. They also enter this game just 27th in first down percentage differential, thanks in large part to a defense that is allowing the 7th highest first down percentage in the league. They’re far more talented than that suggests, especially on defense, as they’re one of the most well-rounded teams in the league on paper, but they have not played up to their talent level thus far this season. Somehow, despite an infusion of talent in free agency, their defense has been worse in 2016 than in 2015.

This would be a good time for them to start doing that, as this game could end up deciding the division and possibly even a first round bye. The Broncos have exceeded my expectations a little bit this season, as their offense has looked good at times and their defense has remained one of the best in the league, despite off-season losses of Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan and an injury to DeMarcus Ware. They enter this game 2nd in first down percentage differential. Their defense will be tested in a big way this week though, with starting cornerback Aqib Talib out with a back injury. He’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the league this season. If the Raiders play like they can on both sides of the ball, not just on offense, they should be able to win this game at home. Given that, the Raiders are the pick here as mere 1 point home favorites, but I’m not confident enough in them right now to put money on them.

Oakland Raiders 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

The Jets are in a good spot here as 3.5 point underdogs in Miami, as the Dolphins have to turn around and play a tougher game on the west coast in San Diego next week, while the Jets host the lowly Rams. Underdogs are 89-60 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and that’s almost certainly the case here. At the same time, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Jets at 3.5, considering the Dolphins are the significantly better team between these two.

These two teams have pretty similar records, but the Jets’ two wins in the last two weeks have both come against weak opponents (Cleveland and a banged up Baltimore team) and neither victory was convincing. On the season, they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are coming off of back-to-back big home wins against quality opponents (Buffalo and Pittsburgh) and rank 10th in first down percentage differential. It’s hard to be confident in the Jets even in a great spot, but a field goal game is still a strong possibility considering 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I am still taking the Jets for a low confidence pick.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Low

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