Month: December 2016

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Falcons, NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

For weeks, the Chiefs have been at the top of my overrated teams list. They’re still on the list, as they are overly reliant on winning close games (5 wins by a touchdown or fewer), winning the turnover margin (+14 on the season), and getting return touchdowns (+5 on the season), but they’re a lot healthier now than they were a couple weeks ago. Top pass rusher Justin Houston showed his All-Pro form last week in his first real game back from off-season knee surgery. Top cornerback Marcus Peters also returned from a 1-game absence last week. This week, the Chiefs get Dee Ford, their top pass rusher in Houston’s absence, back from a 1-game absence.

With Houston and Ford healthy, the Chiefs already strong defense gets even better. They rank 10th in first down rate allowed, but I think you could argue they’re on the cusp of being a top-5 defense with everyone healthy. The problem is their offense, especially with Jeremy Maclin set to miss his 4th straight game with injury. They rank 25th in first down rate and have just 20 offensive touchdowns on the year, including just 6 in the past 4 games, even with one of those games going to overtime. Despite a 8-3 record, they’ve allowed 4 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve allowed. That’s been masked by their turnover margin, return touchdown margin, and record in close games, but those types of things tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, the Chiefs rank 22nd in first down rate differential.

They’re better than that suggests because of their improving injury situation, but they face a tough opponent on the road this week in a tough spot. The Falcons rank 5th in first down rate differential and are still a solid team at worst even with cornerback Desmond Trufant and defensive end Adrian Clayborn hurt. They have major issues on defense, especially without those two, but they have one of the best offenses in the league. They also have a relatively easy game on deck, as they head to Los Angeles to face the Rams next week, a game in which they figure to be big road favorites. Teams are 86-63 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4 or more, as teams tend to take care of business with no upcoming distractions on the horizon.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have to play a big divisional game against the Raiders in Thursday Night Football a few days after this one and are coming off of basically a 5 quarter game, winning in the final seconds of overtime on a field goal. The game didn’t end in a tie but it took the whole overtime period, meaning they played about as much football as they would have in a tie. Unsurprisingly, teams are 5-13 ATS off of a tie since 1989. This line is too high at 5.5 for me to be at all confident in the Falcons, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -5.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8)

The Colts get Andrew Luck back from injury this week, but still have major problems on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they struggle against the run and the pass and, on the offensive side of the ball, they’ve had major issues upfront on the offensive line and have struggled to run the football. They’re healthier now than they were earlier in the year, but still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. That’s actually one spot behind the Jets. The Colts might be a little better than that suggests given their injury situation has improved as the season has gone on, but these two teams are much more comparable than this line suggests.

This line has the Jets as 2 point home underdogs, so we’re getting a few points of line value with them. On top of that, the Jets are in good spot, as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-53 ATS since 2002 in that spot. The Colts are also just 20-22 outside of the division since 2013, including just 1-4 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. I would need at least 3 to put any money on the Jets, but I don’t think we’re going to get that. At 2, it’s a low confidence pick. The money line at +110 might be the best bet here.

New York Jets 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 13 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks

Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1)

Typically, the Seahawks are a very good team in the second half of the season, going 32-10-1 ATS since Pete Carroll took over (since 2011) in games 9-16 of the regular season, but they fell flat on their faces last week in Tampa Bay, losing 14-5 as 6 point road favorites in an embarrassing offensive performance. As a result, the Seahawks fell to 14th in first down rate differential. For comparison, their opponents here, the Carolina Panthers, rank 15th in that metric, just one spot behind them. The Panthers may be 4-7, but 5 of their 7 losses have come by a field goal or less, so they could easily be 7-4, 8-3, or even 9-2 if a few plays went their way.

The good news for the Seahawks is that they are significantly healthier this week than last week. Center Justin Britt, cornerback DeShawn Shead, and safety Earl Thomas return from one-game absences, while Michael Bennett returns after missing 6 games with a knee injury. Thomas and Bennett are two of the best defensive players in the league, while Shead and Britt are both having breakout years at cornerback and center respectively. Now healthy, they could easily put last week’s loss behind them and continue on what looked like another Seattle second half run, after they covered in big wins in games 9 and 10. Conversely, the Panthers are the ones who enter this game very banged up. Top defensive player Luke Kuechly will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion and will be joined on the sidelines by safety Kurt Coleman. Offensively, the Panthers are down to a 3rd string center and a 3rd string left tackle upfront.

That being said, this line is 7, so it’s hard for me to be confident in Seattle at all, especially with the Panthers in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 140-105 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 111-72 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 234-248 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.83 points per game, as opposed to 331-464 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.01 points per game. Seattle is the pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Carolina Panthers 16

Pick against the spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1)

Before the season started, I had the Bengals on my list of teams that I thought would disappoint. They won 12 games last season and were 10-2 before losing quarterback Andy Dalton for the season with injury, but outside of Dalton they barely had an injuries last season, something that usually doesn’t happen two years in a row. They also lost of number of players in free agency, including cornerback Leon Hall, safety Reggie Nelson, and wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones.

Things have been even worse than I expected though. Dalton has stayed healthy, but the Bengals haven’t stayed nearly as healthy as last season around him on either side of the ball. A couple weeks ago, their season went from bad to worse when they lost wide receiver AJ Green for an extended period of time with a slight hamstring tear and running back Giovani Bernard for the season with a torn ACL. Both injuries came in a close home loss to the Bills and then the following week they suffered a close road loss in Baltimore, dropping them to 3-7-1.

Now I actually think the Bengals are underrated. Many of their losses have been close, with their last 3 coming by a combined 10 points. Dalton might not have Bernard or Green, but Tyler Eifert is healthy, which they didn’t have earlier in the season. He still has a strong offensive line in front of him and didn’t play badly against a tough Baltimore defense last week. The Bengals also have a decent defense. On the season, they rank 16th in first down rate differential, not terrible and actually one spot above the Eagles.

The Bengals aren’t as good as that suggests without Bernard and Green, but the Eagles aren’t healthy either, missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly wide receiver Jordan Matthews with injury. They also haven’t been the same offensively since losing right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by 1.5 here in Cincinnati, because the Bengals are an underrated team. The Bengals are also in a much better spot, as they go to Cleveland next week, while the Eagles host the Redskins in a key divisional matchup. The Eagles could definitely overlook a 3-7-1 non-conference opponent, while the Bengals figure to be very focused with the worst team in the league on deck. Home underdogs are 79-44 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. I like the Bengals a good amount this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (6-4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1)

I’ve lost money on the Cardinals in back-to-back weeks, but their price keeps dropping, so I’m going to keep buying. As a result of Arizona’s big loss in Atlanta last week, this line has dropped from 3.5 last week on the early line to 2.5 this week, a significant drop considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly. Last week’s loss in Atlanta was legitimate, but the previous week they lost by 6 in Minnesota because the Vikings had two 100+ yard return touchdowns, the first team to do that in a single game in 50 years. Those two plays resulted in at least a 17 point swing for the Vikings.

Despite their 4-6-1 record, last week was actually just the second time this season the Cardinals lost the first down rate battle and they could easily be 8-3 right now as they could have beaten New England, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Minnesota if one or two fluky things had gone their way (missed field goal against New England, punt return against Rams, blocked punt against Seattle, pick six against Minnesota). The Cardinals actually still rank 1st in first down rate differential, despite last week’s ugly loss in Atlanta. They ranked 1st in that metric last year as well.

The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 23rd in that metric thanks to a defense that is allowing the highest first down rate in the NFL. If this line had stayed at 3.5, I wouldn’t be confident in the Cardinals, but I think the price dropped appropriately for Arizona’s loss to the Falcons and I think we’re still getting good value with the Cardinals as a result. The Cardinals will be without Tyrann Mathieu this week because of injury, a huge loss for this defense, but the Redskins will be without tight end Jordan Reed, an equally big loss for Washington’s offense. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’d put money on the Cardinals again this week.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)

The Jaguars have one of the worst records in the league at 2-9, but are far from one of the worst teams in the league. In addition to 6 of 9 losses coming by less than a touchdown, they’ve been killed by a -15 turnover margin. Fortunately for them, turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For that reason, I love to bet on teams that have poor turnover margins, as they tend to be undervalued. If the Jaguars play turnover neutral football going forward, which isn’t crazy considering how inconsistent turnover margins are, that’s going to have a noticeable effect on the scoreboard.

Outside of those 15 snaps, they’ve played pretty well on the season, especially on defense. They rank 10th in first down rate differential, led by a defense that allows the 8th lowest first down rate in the league and that has been played very well in recent weeks. They don’t get a lot of attention because they’ve only forced 7 takeaways, but the takeaways will come and the talent is definitely there. The Jaguars actually rank one spot better than the Broncos in first down rate differential, as the Broncos enter in 11th.

The Broncos are fully healthy on defense for the first time all season, but they’ll be without quarterback Trevor Siemian with injury, leaving rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch to start. Lynch struggled mightily in a spot start earlier this year, but the first round rookie could be better his 2nd time around. Still, I like the Jaguars’ chances of not only covering as 4.5 point underdogs, but pulling off the straight up upset here at home. They’re a very underrated team and the Broncos are coming off of a grueling overtime loss to the Chiefs. It didn’t end in a tie, but it took the whole overtime period, meaning they played about as much football as they would have in a tie. Unsurprisingly, teams are 5-13 ATS off of a tie since 1989. This is my Pick of the Week and the money line is also a good bet as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 13 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Steelers

New York Giants (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

What do the Giants have to do to get respect? They enter this game 8-3, but are 6 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh against the 6-5 Steelers. To give you an idea of how rare something like this is, the Giants are just the 8th team since 1989 with a winning percentage of 70% or better to be underdogs of 6 or more against a team with a winning percentage less than 60% in week 13 or later. Of those 7 previous instances, 5 were meaningless week 17 games in which the underdog was resting starters to prepare for the playoffs.

Just one of the Giants’ 8 wins has come by more than a touchdown and normally I don’t like teams that win a lot of close games because they tend not to be as good as their record. However, the Giants are an exception because they’ve managed to go 8-3 (even with many of the wins being close) despite a -5 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so I love teams that are able to win despite not consistently winning the turnover battle.  In fact, the Giants have 4 wins in games in which they lost the turnover battle this season. No other team has more than 2 wins in which they’ve lost the turnover battle. The Giants are 4-2 this season when losing the turnover battle. The rest of the league is 29-106 (.215).

On the season, the Giants enter this game 8th in first down rate differential. Their offense has struggled, especially without top offensive lineman Justin Pugh, but their defense has allowed the 2nd lowest first down rate against this season and is finally forcing turnovers in recent weeks, after not doing so early in the year. The Steelers are actually one spot behind them in 9th in first down rate differential, so we’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the visiting New York Giants. The Giants have been a strong road team in recent years anyway, going 57-37 ATS on the road since 2005, Eli Manning’s first full season as starter. This season, they’re 4-1 ATS on the road and I like their chances of pushing that to 5-1 ATS this week as underdogs of too many points.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-4) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

This line at 3.5 in favor of the hometown Baltimore Ravens suggests the Ravens are a slightly better team than the Dolphins. I think it’s the opposite. Both teams come into this game relatively healthy compared to most of the season, with the Dolphins getting left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil back this week, while the Ravens get cornerback Jimmy Smith back. However, the Dolphins rank 12th on the season in first down rate differential, while the Ravens rank 19th in that metric. This line should be around 2.5, which might not seem like a big difference from 3.5, but it is, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. The Ravens are certainly no strangers to field goal games, as 4 of their 11 wins in the past 2 seasons have come by exactly a field goal. That makes sense, as the Ravens have a great defense, but a struggling offense. That’s not exactly a recipe for big blowout wins. The Dolphins are a quality opponent, so, if the Ravens win, it’ll likely be by a field goal or less.

The Dolphins are also in a much better spot than the Ravens, as they host the skidding Cardinals next week, while the Ravens have to turn around and go to New England, where the early line has them as 10 point underdogs. The Dolphins will be favored next week at home for the Cardinals and underdogs are 94-61 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 41-63 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as upcoming big games like that tend to be a distraction for a team. As favorites, teams are 37-62 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs. Combining the two, underdogs are 48-20 ATS since 1989 before being favorites when their opponents will next be double digit underdogs. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (10-1) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

This line has shifted from 2 in favor of the visiting Cowboys on the early line last week to 4 now this week. Ordinarily, big week-to-week shifts like that are the result of overreactions to a single week of play and create line value, but I think this line is right about where it should be. The Cowboys enter this game 3rd in first down rate differential, while the Vikings enter in 20th and likely missing their head coach with emergency eye surgery and talented center Joe Berger with a concussion.

The Cowboys also travel as well as any team in the league. Since 2010, they are 31-21 ATS on the road, as opposed to 19-35 ATS at home. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.02 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 1.20 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.

That being said, I’m taking the Vikings here for a no confidence play because they’re in a good spot. While the Cowboys have arguably their toughest and biggest game of the season next week, a road game in New York against the Giants team that gave them their only loss of the season way back in week 1, the Vikings instead go to Jacksonville, a much easier game. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Cowboys as a result. Home underdogs like the Vikings are 47-27 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites, as the Vikings are expected to be next week. This pick is only for pick ‘em purposes though, as I wouldn’t recommend betting on either side.

Dallas Cowboys 20 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +4

Confidence: None

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