Year: 2016

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

There are a few games this week where I think the line is too high and the underdog has a good chance to win. I think this line is too high at 6 in favor of Houston, but I still expect the Texans to win. They’re the slightly better team and they’re at home. I just think 6 points is too many to pass on. People like Houston because they added at the skill positions this off-season, adding quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Lamar Miller, wide receiver Will Fuller, but Osweiler is overrated and unproven, while Fuller is still a rookie.

People also seem to be overlooking their issues on the offensive line. With talented left tackle Duane Brown out with injury to start the season, the Texans are missing 3 starters on the offensive line last year, including free agent departures Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks, neither of whom was adequately replaced. On defense, they need JJ Watt to be 100%, which is somewhat in question after off-season back surgery. On the other side, the Bears aren’t a great team either, but they’re comparable to Houston in terms of talent. This line should be closer to 3 than 6. It’s not tough for me to put money on it, but Chicago should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

The Vikings caught a tough break when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a brutal knee injury in practice with less than 2 weeks before the first game of the season. Bridgewater dislocated his knee, tore his ACL, suffered additional ligament damage, and is out for at least the season. It must be especially frustrating for the Vikings because they’ve improved dramatically in each of the past 2 seasons, going from 5-10-1 in 2013 to a 11-5 NFC North title season in 2015, and appeared right on the cusp this season. Bridgewater is not the only reason for their improvement, but he’s been a big part of it in his 2 years in the league, since going in the first round in 2014.

Not trusting 36-year-old career journeyman backup Shaun Hill to replace Bridgewater, the Vikings made a desperation move and traded a 2017 first round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford, a veteran quarterback who the Eagles will replace with rookie Carson Wentz, the #2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Built to win now, I understand why the Vikings made the move. Bradford’s skill set is comparable to Bridgewater, but it’s going to be tough for him to take over as Minnesota’s starting quarterback, after spending all off-season as the starter in Philadelphia. In fact, he won’t even start in this game, leaving Hill at quarterback for at least week 1. Hill didn’t play well in his last significant action in 2014 (63.3% completion, 7.24 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) and now is two years older and going into his age 36 season, so he’s a major liability.

The good news for the Vikings is they’re a team built to play great defense and run the ball. Even last year, with a healthy Bridgewater, they only passed 454 times, fewest in the NFL. The bad news is they have major issues in the receiving corps and the offensive line has major issues in pass protection. Their passing game will have trouble doing anything if needed with Hill under center. Given that, I don’t understand why they are favored here on the road by an entire field goal against an underrated Tennessee team.

The Titans only won 3 games last year, but 5 of their losses came when quarterback Marcus Mariota was hurt and 4 of their other 8 losses when Mariota was healthy came by less than a touchdown. They added a lot through the draft, after trading down from #1 overall, and also made some underrated off-season acquisitions. Their offensive line and running game look much improved, while their defense is much deeper and could be much improved if the likes of Brian Orakpo, Jason McCourty, and Perrish Cox can all be healthier this season. I like their chances of at least getting a push, given that 1 out of every 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 19 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

This line is at 3, which suggests these two teams are even. I disagree. The Lions finished last season just 7-9, but won 6 of their final 8 games and it easily could have been 7 if not for the longest game winning Hail Mary in NFL history in their loss to the Packers. Calvin Johnson is gone, but they added Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin and their offense was great down the stretch last season, after Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator mid-season. On defense, they get DeAndre Levy back from injury, after their talented linebacker missed essentially all of 2015. They have a good chance to continue playing well this season and push for a playoff spot.

The Lions’ schedule down the stretch last season was relatively easy (aside from Green Bay), so they’re unlikely to continue winning 3 out of every 4 games, but I don’t think the Colts are a tough opponent, especially with their top-2 defensive players, Vontae Davis and Henry Anderson, missing the start of the season with injury. The Colts get Andrew Luck back, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as they went 8-8. Their defense took a step back from the season before and they struggled mightily running the ball and protecting the quarterback.

Their running backs and offensive line remain a problem and the defense could take another step back. They lost top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency and have the oldest defense in the league, which looks like one of the worst in the league on paper. They’re going to have a tough time stopping anyone with Henry Anderson and Vontae Davis. I like the Lions’ chances of at least pushing as 3 point underdogs, as 1 of 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I think they can also win the game outright.

Detroit Lions 27 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Raiders, Saints, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Almost every season, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Raiders are my pick to do that this year, or at least come close. A young team that has drafted well over the past few years, adding the likes of Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper, and Gabe Jackson in 2014 and 2015, the Raiders have had a lot of money to play with in free agency over the past two off-seasons and have done well adding veteran talent in free agency to complement their young talent, adding the likes of Rodney Hudson, Michael Crabtree, Sean Smith, Michael Griffin, Bruce Irvin, and Kelechi Osemele over the past 2 off-seasons. On paper, this is one of the most talented teams in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Saints have a strong offense, but a pathetic defense and figure to finish under .500 for the 3rd straight season. If the 37-year-old Drew Brees starts to show his age, the Saints could easily be one of the worst teams in the league in 2016. Despite that, they’re actually favored by a point and half here at home week 1. I obviously wish we were getting the whole field goal with the Raiders, but the Saints shouldn’t be favored by any amount of points here. There’s a very good chance Oakland would be favored by at least a field goal on the road in mid-season against New Orleans, after people realize how talented this team is. The Saints’ Superdome magic seems to have worn out in recent years, as they’re just 6-9 ATS at home over the past 2 seasons, after going 20-4 ATS at home during better times from 2011-2013, so I see no reason not to take Oakland.

Oakland Raiders 27 New Orleans Saints 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

When the Eagles traded away Sam Bradford 8 days before the start of the season last Saturday, that dropped this spread from 6.5 or 7 to 3.5, where it still stands now. Trading away Bradford definitely hurts this team, as you hate switching quarterbacks that close to the start of the season and Bradford showed himself to be a capable starter this season, but this line seems way too low. Plus, Bradford will be replaced by the #2 overall pick in the draft, Carson Wentz, so the Eagles might still be in capable hands, even if he does have growing pains as a rookie.

The Eagles don’t have a ton of skill position talent around him, but Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Darren Sproles give Wentz a trio of solid options in the passing game, while both Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham have potential in their 2nd years in the league and running back Ryan Mathews has been successful as a feature back in the past when he’s been healthy, which he currently is. They also have a strong offensive line, especially with right tackle Lane Johnson allowed to play while appealing his suspension, and the defense should be much improved this season with several off-season additions and Jim Schwartz coming in as defensive coordinator.

They’re certainly much, much better than Cleveland, who was one of the worst teams in the league last season and could be even worse in 2016. They finished last year 4th worst in rate of moving the chains differential and lost 11 starters this off-season. Not all of the players they lost were good, but guys like Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, Desmond Bryant, Karlos Dansby, and Donte Whitner will be missed. They did add some players, including quarterback Robert Griffin, who still has upside in his age 26 season, and they had a good draft, but this is arguably the worst roster in the NFL. Carson Wentz has a chance to have a great game against the Browns’ terrible defense. This line suggests that these two teams are essentially even, which is not remotely true. Even though 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, I don’t like the Browns’ chances of even keeping this one close, so I have no problem laying the 3.5 with the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)

Most of my top picks this week are underdogs, but here’s a favorite that seems to be undervalued for some reason. The Seahawks are 10.5 point favorites, which might seem like a lot, but it’s not when you consider how much better Seattle is than Miami. The Dolphins won 6 games last season, but finished 2nd worst in rate of moving the chains differential and 5th worst in point differential, so they were even worse than that 6-10 record suggested. They’ll be better coached this season with Adam Gase coming in, but they also lost a trio of talented players in free agency, losing Olivier Vernon, Lamar Miller, and Derrick Shelby. They’re also without talented center Mike Pouncey because of injury.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won 10 games last year, but were once again a top-3 team in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Returning a pretty similar team to the one that played so well down the stretch last season, the Seahawks figure to be one of the best teams in the league again. It’s weird that they’re being underrated by the oddsmakers, but I think this line would be at least 14 in mid-season, especially considering the Seahawks are 51-27 ATS at home since 2007. This one won’t be close and Seattle is the obvious Survivor Pick this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

Here’s another line I don’t understand. The Steelers are favored by 3 points on the road, which might not seem like a lot, but it means they have to win by more than 3 points to cover, and 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer. It’s also the equivalent of being about 8 or 9 point favorites at home and suggests the Steelers are about 6 points better than the Redskins, which doesn’t make much sense. The Redskins aren’t a great team, but they have a solid squad, while the Steelers are at less than 100% to start the season, missing #2 wide receiver Markus Wheaton, tight end Ladarius Green, and running back Le’Veon Bell.

This line should be much closer to even, so I love getting the full field goal with the Redskins. The Steelers also have never been great at these non-divisional road games against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era. Tomlin is a great coach overall, but his teams have historically not gotten up for in “trap games” like this against unfamiliar opponents, as the Steelers have gone 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007. This might end up being a push because of how common field goal games are, but I like the Redskins chances to keep it at least within a field goal and likely win outright. I think the money line at +135 is also a good value.

Washington Redskins 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

The 49ers were the worst team in the league last season, finishing dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They managed to win 5 games, but just 1 of those 5 wins came by more than 6 points, while their average margin of defeat was 16.45 points per loss. All those 5 wins really did for them was take them out of position to draft a quarterback early, leaving them to start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. With 46 million in unused cap space following an off-season in which they had a very tough time convincing anyone to sign with them, this might be the least talented team in the league once again. This time they might not be fortunate enough to win 5 games (or unfortunate enough depending on how you look at it).

However, the Rams might be equally bad. At the very least, they’re close. They won 7 games last season, but they also needed good luck in close games to even go 7-9. Of those 7 wins, 5 came by 8 points or fewer, while only 3 of their 9 losses did, as they finished 30th in rate of moving the chains differential overall. They were better than the 49ers last season, but their off-season was even worse than the San Francisco’s. The 49ers didn’t get any better, but the Rams actually got worse. They lost a pair of talented defensive starters in Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod in free agency and traded away their entire draft to move up to #1 to reach for California quarterback Jared Goff, who won’t even be the starter to begin the season.

Outside of running back and defensive line, the Rams have major problems all over the field, especially in the receiving corps, in the secondary, and on the offensive line. I’m confused why they’re favored here on the road in San Francisco, even by 2.5 points. These two teams are much more even than that suggests and the Rams aren’t good enough to be road favorites against anyone. I wish we were getting a full field goal with the 49ers because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but I like the 49ers to win here at home. That’s probably the only time I’ll say that this season.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Los Angeles Rams 10 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Chiefs are favored here by 6.5 points at home over the Chargers. If you took these two teams’ records from last season, that makes sense, as the Chargers won just 4 games and the Chiefs won 11. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. While the Chargers only won 4 games, they were competitive in most of their games, only losing by more than 8 points three times, including just 1 loss by more than 8 points on the road. Close losses weren’t the end of their bad luck last season, as they had the 2nd worst special teams performance in the league in terms of DVOA and had a -5 differential in return touchdowns. Both of those things tend to be pretty random and hard to predict on a year-to-year basis and even average performance in both of those metrics helps this team win more close games. They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards and finished 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 5 spots behind the Chiefs.

That’s despite the fact that they had among the most injuries in the league last season, finishing with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. They were especially banged up down the stretch and still managed to keep it close with the Chiefs week 14, covering as huge road underdogs in a 7 point loss. The Chargers are much healthier this season, with the likes of Keenan Allen, Orlando Franklin, and King Dunlap returning after injury plagued 2015 seasons. They also added Matt Slauson and Casey Hayward, two very underrated signings, this off-season, though they lost long-time safety Eric Weddle and will be without #3 overall pick Joey Bosa in this one, as he works back into shape after a stupid off-season holdout.

Instead, the Chiefs are the ones coming into the season banged up, as Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston, two of their best players, will miss the start of the season with knee injuries. Both were out for last year’s close call with the Chargers week 14, but the Chiefs are also now without top cornerback Sean Smith, who left as a free agent this off-season. This line shouldn’t be any higher than 3 (suggesting these two teams are about even) and the Chargers actually played better on the road last season than at home, where they have very few fans, so I like the Chargers’ chances of taking this one straight up. At the very least, the game should be even closer than the 7 point game played between these two teams in Kansas City week 14 last season and the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up are better than the +230 money line suggests.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against the spread: San Diego +6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2016 NFL Season Predictions

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized

AFC East

NE 11-5*

BUF 8-8

NYJ 7-9

MIA 6-10

AFC North

PIT 10-6*

CIN 9-7*

BAL 8-8

CLE 4-12

AFC South

TEN 8-8*

IND 7-9

HOU 7-9

JAX 7-9

AFC West

OAK 10-6*

SD 9-7*

KC 8-8

DEN 8-8

NFC East

PHI 9-7*

NYG 8-8

DAL 8-8

WAS 8-8

NFC North

GB 11-5*

DET 9-7*

MIN 8-8

CHI 6-10

NFC South

CAR 12-4*

TB 7-9

NO 6-10

ATL 6-10

NFC West

ARZ 12-4*

SEA 11-5*

SF 4-12

LA 4-12

Wild Card Round

Cincinnati over Tennessee

Pittsburgh over San Diego

Seattle over Philadelphia

Green Bay over Detroit

Divisional Round

New England over Cincinnati

Pittsburgh over Oakland

Arizona over Seattle

Carolina over Green Bay

Conference Championships

New England over Pittsburgh

Arizona over Carolina

Super Bowl

Arizona over New England

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