Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Denver Broncos (1-0)
The Cowboys have had arguably the worst homefield advantage in the league in recent years. Since 2010, they are 30-29 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.80 points per game, as opposed to 30-26 on the road, where are outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, meaning their homefield advantage is only worth about a point. That makes sense, considering the Cowboys have a strong fanbase throughout the country. Last season, in the first year of the Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott era, the Cowboys went 5-2 ATS in meaningful road games.
They could easily push that to 6-2 this week. If we assume about 1 point for homefield advantage in this one, this line is saying the Cowboys are only about 3.5 points better than the Broncos, which think is a little low. The Cowboys have issues defensively with David Irving suspended and Orlando Scandrick injured, but they are still one of the more talented teams in the league and a few spots ahead of the Broncos in my rankings. They also match up well with the Broncos because of their strong running game. They won’t have to test the Broncos’ secondary as much as other teams. I would be worried about taking the Cowboys at -3 because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but, as long as this game is under a field goal and the Cowboys basically just have to win straight up on the road, the Cowboys should be the right pick here in pick ‘em leagues.
Dallas Cowboys 24 Denver Broncos 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -2.5