Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

The Jaguars had an impressive 44-7 win over the Ravens last week in London, but this line has still moved from 4.5 in favor of the Jaguars last week on the early line to 3.5 this week. That’s because the Jets picked up their first win of the season last week with a 20-6 win as 6 point home underdogs against the Dolphins. The Dolphins are an overrated team though and could easily be one of the worst in the league this season, so it’s not a shock that the Jets were able to win at home against them. The Jets are still the least talented team in the league, regardless of their victory last week.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, have one of the best defenses in the league and can run a conservative offense around short throws and running the football. I still have this line calculated at -6.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the line now down to 3.5. I’m holding out for this line to go down to 3 before game time, in which case this would become a high confidence pick, but I’d still take -3.5 or even -4 if I had to settle for that. The Jaguars are legitimate playoff contenders and should be able to take care of business against the lowly Jets.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -3.5

Confidence: Medium