Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
This is one of the toughest games of the week to predict against the spread. The Seahawks are favored by 12.5 and I have this line calculated at -13.5 because the Colts are one of the least talented teams in the league and the Seahawks are one of the most, but the Seahawks offense is so inconsistent that I don’t know if I trust them laying this many points. In a similar situation earlier this year against an equally bad San Francisco team, they managed just 12 points in a 12-9 victory, despite being favored by 14 points coming into the game.
In fact, over the past 2 seasons, they’ve scored fewer than 13 points in a game 7 times. Only the Browns, Jets, Rams, and Texans have more games with fewer than 13 points over that time period. That’s especially relevant because the Seahawks will need to not just score 13 points, but win by 13 points to cover here. The Colts have a weak defense and their offense should struggle mightily against Seattle’s defense, but that was true of the 49ers a couple weeks ago. This could easily be a 17-10 or a 16-9 game that the Seahawks struggle to put away, so I can’t take them with any confidence, even though I think Seattle has the talent to blow away the Colts.
Seattle Seahawks 23 Indianapolis Colts 10
Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5