San Francisco 49ers (0-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
These are two of the worst teams in the league, but I think the 49ers are a little worse, at least as long as talented rookie middle linebacker Reuben Foster remains out with injury. The Colts, meanwhile, are actually getting healthier, with cornerback Vontae Davis returning last week and center Ryan Kelly back in the lineup this week. Quarterback Andrew Luck and safety Clayton Geathers remain out indefinitely, so this team still has problems, but I think the Colts’ roster is a little bit more talented than the 49ers’ right now.
This line, -1.5 in favor of the hometown Colts, suggests the opposite, that the 49ers are a little bit better. That might be true if Scott Tolzien was still the Colts’ quarterback, but Jacoby Brissett has done a decent job stabilizing this offense after Tolzien’s week 1 disastrous performance. We’re getting a couple points of line value with the Colts, who haven’t lost at home in regulation this season. They should be able to beat the 49ers, but there’s not enough for me to be that confident in them this week.
Indianapolis Colts 23 San Francisco 49ers 20
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -1.5