Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (0-6)
The 49ers are 0-6, but their last 5 losses have all come by 3 points or fewer, so they could easily have a couple victories. The Cowboys, meanwhile, were not playing well before the bye, losing at home to the Rams and Packers. However, I do like the Cowboys here as 6 point road favorites for a few reasons. The biggest reason is that they are healthy. Linebacker Sean Lee, arguably their best defensive player, missed the losses to the Rams and Packers, but will return for this one, a huge re-addition. On top of that, left tackle Tyron Smith, who was playing through an injured back, should be better after the bye week.
Speaking of the bye week, the Cowboys are in a great spot coming out of the bye, not just because they’re healthy, but because road favorites of 3+ are an incredible 41-13 ATS since 2002 after a bye. The 49ers, meanwhile, are in a tough spot because they have to turn around and play in Philadelphia next week, a game in which they will likely be double digit underdogs (+10.5 on the early line). Teams are 46-73 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and underdogs of 6 or more are 52-85 ATS before underdogs of 6 or more again the following week, over that same time period. It’s very tough for inferior teams to keep it close against a superior opponent when they have another tough opponent on deck.
Six is a fair amount of points to with Dallas, but I have this line calculated right at -6, given that the Cowboys are healthy, that the 49ers are not (now missing defensive end Arik Armstead), and that the Cowboys have a national fanbase and are a strong road team (29-21 ATS on the road since 2011). There isn’t enough here for me to bet on the Cowboys because the 49ers could end up keeping this one close again, especially if rookie quarterback CJ Beathard surprises in his first career NFL start or gets a backdoor cover, but the Cowboys should be the right side.
Dallas Cowboys 28 San Francisco 49ers 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -6